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(Raja Umer, 2019)

Religion, Social Media and Electoral Politics in Punjab: A Case

Study of 2018 Elections in Pakistan

Raja Umer
Naveed Jan
Irtiza Qureshi

ABSTRACT
This study is concentrated on the impact of religion on the electoral pattern of the people of
Punjab province. Religion as a determinant of choice behavior is best expressed within the
votes secured by the religious parties. Thus, religious parties pick out Islamic Republic of
Pakistan Associate in Nursing Punjab region is studied to create an argument. It influences
every act and perspective of the individual particularly in developing countries. In Pakistan;
religion includes a solid effect on in shaping the political attitudes and beliefs of the people. it's
one in every of the key components of politics of 2018 general elections, saw a sudden rise
within the vote bank of non-secular political parties. It witnessed a 2.17 %1 increase within the
religious vote country wide and 1.32%2 increase in Punjab region. Tahreek- Labbaik appeared
on the scene as a radical Sunni Muslim party, it mobilized the barelvi vote bank to nice result.
And it emerged because the third largest party of Punjab region, in terms of votes polled.2018
general elections conjointly witnessed the increase of Milli Muslim League that was a political
wing of Jamaat-ud-Dawa, World Health Organization were antecedently rejecting the
parliamentary variety of government the rise within the influence of the varied non secular
cushion nasheen within the electoral politics of geographic region was conjointly a
distinguished issue throughout the eleventh election. Social media has become omnipresent
and globally used for social networking and content sharing. Twitter could be a documented
small blogging social media website to share and exchange people’s opinion and content in
several aspects of life. The facility of twitter primarily based predictions has its own enlarged
importance and has been greatly accepted. During this analysis paper, we have a tendency to

1
The News International Daily Newspaper.

2
The News International Daily Newspaper.
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investigate a tweet-based application of deep neural network to predict the 2018 electoral
results of Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

Key Words
Religious trends, Politics, Elections, Electoral pattern, Tensor flow, Prediction, Neural Network,
Forecasting.

Introduction
Every act and perspective of individual is formed by the influence of faith within the same
means, faith has sturdy result on political attitudes of people. spiritual have an effect on will be
seen in 2 alternative ways. Religious teachings priorities social values by accepting few and
rejecting few of them. This price system then influences the political attitudes of people that
formulate their choice behavior. Then, faith directly influences the political behavior of a
personal. As a specific cluster of individuals within the society belong to a definite religion vote
their similar organization (Butt & Awang, 2017). For instance, most of the Roman Catholics in
Belgium vote for the Christian Democrat party in elections or as Sunni-Bralevis voted for
Tehreek-e-Labbaik in 2018 elections in Pakistan. Social media sentiment analysis, opinion
extraction and data processing are notable, made and regularly used solutions to predict
election results the aim of election results prediction through social media is to envision the
importance and irresponsibleness of knowledge generated from these sites. Social media has
become omnipresent and wide used for social networking and content sharing. The contents
shared by folks concerning their opinions on specific event or product stay untapped. Twitter
could be a small blogging social media website to share people’s opinion and content in several
facet of life. In today’s digital age, social media sites are greatly used for active and speedy
communication among folks from world. They extensively want to gather knowledge for
sentiment analysis and creating predictions exploitation sentiment analysis. The facility of
twitter primarily based predictions particularly with regard to election, has its own enlarged
importance and has been greatly accepted. Voting is Associate in Nursing action of person that
involves an exact activity act. There are various social and political determinants that formulate
the choice behavior and faith is one in every of them. Religious parties are the one World
Health Organization uses faith for the aim of electoral success. Islamic Republic of Pakistan has
Islam because the state religion that has been followed by 96 people within the country. State
administration is being run keeping in line with the essential Muslim principles. Therefore, it
proves valuable for understanding the social and psychological trends. Religion as a
determinant of choice behavior is best expressed within the votes secured by the spiritual
parties. Religion is one in every of the key components of politics in Islamic Republic of
Pakistan. It has an effect on in shaping the political attitudes and beliefs of the people to
support such parties having spiritual standing keeping visible that these religious parties would
govern the country as per the Muslim principles. Though religious parties have vast followers
however their performance within the elections isn't satisfactory. Curiously, in 2018 election
the vote bank for religious parties have hyperbolic. In three of the four provinces, Religious
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parties graded within the high 3 parties in terms of most variety of votes. In Punjab region
conjointly, the religious parties got 6.30%3 of the entire polled votes, which is 1.49% quite the
common spiritual votes of previous elections. However, it is 3.18% but the spiritual votes polled
overall in Islamic Republic of Pakistan. This analysis work can study the role of faith on the
electoral attitudes of the people. It'll conjointly notice, whether or not faith could be a key
determinant behind choice behavior of individuals in Punjab region. The quantity of total votes
polled within the favor of religion-based parties are analyzed to create Associate of the people.
It will also find, whether religion is a key determinant behind voting behavior of people in
Punjab. The number of total votes polled in the favor of religion-based parties will be analyzed
to build an argument.

Vote and voting behavior

Man could be a social being Associate in Nursing an integral a part of society. His
participation within the social organization is pertinent and therefore the whole social
organization relies on the choices and actions of man. The ways and means that of human
participation area unit a key to political scrutiny. Election is a vital space in social
sciences. it's become a correct field of specialization. The study of elections is
termed sociology (Akhtar, Awan, & Shuja-ul-Haq, 2010). it's a method of representing
political alternative of lots so as to create their government. ballot in Associate in
Nursing election; could be a method to grasp the mood and behavior of respondents. it's a
vital tool for respondents to become a spirited national and play a full of life half within
the state matters (Kanwal, Shahid, & Naeem, 2016). loosely, ballot could be a method during
a democratic setup to elect your leadership so as to run the affairs of the govt.4

Social Media Analysis

People share their opinions and feelings with each other through social media. It has become
ubiquitous and widely used for social networking and content sharing. People typically share
their opinions on particular event or product, social media analysts analyze these content to
gather information behind people’s opinions. The objective of social media analysis is to gather
data from social media sites then analyzes it to make smart decisions. Social media data
analysis is extensively used in marketing to improve the customer service. An advancement of
social media analysis is sentiment analysis, in which Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Machine
Learning (ML) algorithms are used.5

3
The News International Daily Newspaper.
4
Sheikh, J. A., Bokhari, S. S., & Naseer, M. R. (2015) Journal of Social Sciences, 449-456.
4|Page

Determinants of voting behavior in Punjab

Voting behavior determines the trends in electoral politics. There are numerous social and
political determinants that formulate the voting behavior. Voting behavior is shaped and
reshaped at two levels. Level first focuses on the sociocultural setups which effects on the
voting behavior such as religion, caste, ethnicity, feudal structure, and power. The second level
focuses other techniques such as deception, spreading rumors, believing conspiracy theories
and wired projection of candidate at print and electronic media (Sheikh, Bokhari, & Naseer,
2015). Various researchers and thinkers have focused on several determinants of voting
behavior worldwide. As Leighley & Nagler, (1992) believes that voting is influenced by the
demographic factors such as age, sex, education level and even income level. Hoene, (2011)
puts that the level of education, level of income and gender are important variables in the
voting behavior, because people have different voting preferences in each stratum. Lednum,
(2006) talks about race and ethnic factors in voting behavior, while Hamad and Naseem gives
importance to cultural influences in determining voting behavior. Shachar & Nalebuff, (1999)
believe that the leader impacts the voting behavior and increases the voting turnout. Pinkleton,
Austin, & Fortman, (1998) say, media is important in shaping the minds of the people towards a
person or a party, they indicate the positive impact of media coverage on voting choice.
Pakistan is a politically developing country. People’s voting choice is determined by various
factors. There is a huge difference in terms of voter’s choice between rural and urban areas of
Pakistan. In rural areas mostly, psychological factors affect the decision making. That includes
race, biradari, religion, traditional groups and family loyalties etc. While in urban areas rational
and educational factors play an important role, such as party manifestos, party loyalty and
socio-political issues (Muhammad & Hasan, 2016). Lots of work has been done by different
researchers on the impact of biradari in politics of the country especially Punjab. M. Ahmed &
Naseem, (2011) say that social systems influence the political system a lot. And biradari is one
key factor. In rural areas even, political parties nominate a candidate on the basis of his race
and clan. People are inclined to vote a candidate who belong to their tribe, race or cast and
party does not matter (Barbet Porta, 2016). Biradari works as an attachment and as well as a
social status carrier at the same time. (Chaudhry, Ahmad, Khan and Hussain, 2014). Especially in
rural Punjab biradari is decisive in electoral decision making. It influences the whole process of
the elections from the nomination of candidate to formation of panels and also election
campaigns (Usman, 2016). Biradari appears as a force to meet physical, psychological and social
needs. Nasir, Chaudhry, Khan, & (Hadi, 2015) give figure of 66.7% people vote on biradari basis
both in rural and urban setups. Biradari is some time used as exploitation factor to weaken the
political parties (Ahmed, 2008). Non-partyelections, martial law government and local bodies‟
elections also strengthen the phenomenon of biradari. Kinship relations are another form of
baradari dominance. In rural Punjab people vote on the basis of kinship relation. Consequently,
the whole village vote, in form of a block in favor of a leader or a party. People are mobilized by
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the village elite. People follow their village elites because they have regular contacts and access
to them, and they can seek their benefit easily through them. Of late, the second most favorite
topic of study relating to voting behavior is the role of media. Media is playing an important
part in making minds of the people towards a particular candidate or party. Media is considered
an important source of influencing human behavior. (Kanwal, Shahid, & Naeem, 2016). In terms
of rural-urban division, media impacts more on urban voters rather than rural people however,
this trend is changing rapidly. The impact of newspaper media is very significant in political
motivation. 56.6%6 people read newspapers for only political information (Yaser, Mahsud,
Chaudhry, & Ahmad, 2011). The percentage varies in terms of male and female, age groups,
rural and urban, income wise and even educational level wise. Social media is the latest form of
media. The role of twitter is very prominent in this regard. Twitter is used as a tool for the
direct interaction with voters‟ especially young voters S. Ahmed & Skoric, (2015). It was one of
the major reasons behind PTI success in 2013 elections. Other than this, various researchers
have discussed several other variables of voting behavior just as Shawar & Asim, (2012) say that
people vote for candidates not for party. Race and ethnicity have great influence on voting
behavior. And further adds that biradari, parent's choice, party agenda, and the role of media
are some key determinants of voting behavior in Pakistan. while Yaser, Mahsud, Chaudhry, &
Ahmad, (2011) assert that personality of a candidate, biradari, ethnicity and party affiliations
play a major role in voting decisions. The most in depth study on voting behavior in Punjab; the
largest provinces of Pakistan in terms of population is done by Andrew Wilder (1999). He says
that party identification is a key determinant of voting behavior since 1980 particularly in urban
areas. Political parties of candidate, party integrity, party leadership, and party manifesto are
very important factors in this regard.

Religion: As a determinant of voting behavior

In Pakistan, religion as a determinant of voting behavior has been a neglected area. There is
hardly any study specifically deals with the impact of religion on voting behavior of people.
Researchers have talked about ethnicity, religious extremism and radicalism. Religion
dominates in a conservative and underdeveloped society. Madrasa education is an important
factor of religious dominance. Madrasa as a place of learning for Islamic education provides
Quranic teachings to Muslim children. Madrasas provide economy education to society. They
deliver free education and also boarding and lodging facilities to students.
One aspect of religious influence in the political process is the dominance of Sufi shrines
especially in Punjab. These shrines have huge following in rural areas, not only because of their
religious importance but mainly because of the lack of education, ignorance and even
feudalism. These shrines have also exploited these simple rural people. They collect money
from their followers and then spend it back on them to achieve their political goals (Kalhoro &

6
Ahmed, M. (2008) Journal of Political Studies, 14, 45-55.
6|Page

Saleem, 2016). Religious behavior is an important factor behind social development; both are
inter-linked and cannot be seen separately. Religious behavior is manifested in many different
ways including offering prayers, fasting, pilgrimage to Makkah, growing a beard, dress code, veil
burka, charity donation to mosques and madrasas (Azam, 2010). Religion is one of the most
fundamental characteristics of Pakistani society. It is also a key factor behind voting. Religious
parties manipulate religion for securing electoral success. Basic reason for voting religious
parties is the wish to see Pakistan as a purely Islamic state. Religion affects human behavior
both at individual and community level. However, religious beliefs have lesser impacts on the
political attitudes of people in a society having diversity in terms of language, culture and
ethnicity. Rather it is ethnicity that tends to influence voting behavior more than religion (Butt
& Awang, 2017). However, the situation can be otherwise in a uni-ethnic society. Hence, there
is dearth of literature related to religion as determinant of voting behavior, most of work
founds related to the religion’s role in politics of Pakistan. Researchers have spoken about the
impact of religion in the political process of the state but hardly anyone has talked about
religion as a determinant of voting behavior.

Vote bank of religious parties in Pakistan and Punjab: A historical

comparison
The electoral history of Pakistan is full of hiccups and obstacles because elections in Pakistan
were not held on regular intervals. The political party system has failed to develop and there
are huge differences among the political players and state institutions. Elections are an integral
part of the modern representative democracy and political parties are an integral component of
elections. History of elections in Pakistan is full of turbulence although from 1947 to 1970 the
country has gone through election process many times, sometimes indirect and sometimes
controlled. However, the first general elections in Pakistan were held in 1970. Since 1970 to
2018, eleven general elections have held in the country. Religious parties have been a key
player of Pakistan electoral process since beginning. Their vote bank is very critical in the
success of the candidates of other political parties. 1970 elections witness the maximum
number of votes in favor of religious political parties. Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), Jamiat ULama Islam
West Pakistan (JUIWP), and Jamiat Ulama Islam Noorani (JUI-N) were the major religious
parties along with Markazi Jamiat Ahle Hadees Pakistan (MJAHP), Markazi Jamia Ulama
Pakistan (MJUP), Pakistan Masihi league and Islamic Gonotontri Dal. They all secured 21.33% of
the total polled votes for National Assembly seats in Pakistan. While in Punjab their vote was
19.86%7 of the total polled votes for the National Assembly seats.

Statistical description: correlations coefficient

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Amir, F. (2012). Daily Times
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Correlation is a statistical process that determines the mutual relationship between two or
more variables which are thought to be mutually related in a way that systematic changes in
the value of one variable are accompanied by the systematic changes in the other and vice
versa. A correlation was measured between total polled votes and religious parties votes in
Pakistan and then in Punjab. Furthermore, a correlation was measured between percentage of
the total polled votes in favor of religious parties in Pakistan and percentage of total votes of
religious parties from Punjab to assess the share of Punjab’s vote.
SPSS version 25 software was used to conduct the test. Pearson test was applied. The value of
correlations lies between (-1 to +1), whereas +1 shows a perfect relationship.
Religious trends in Punjab in the general elections of 2018 Religious parties vote bank got an
upward lift in the 2018 general elections in Punjab. Religious parties received third highest
percent of votes after 1970, and 2002 general elections. Religious parties gained maximum
number of votes in 1970 elections, it was 19.86 % of the total valid votes, and in 2002 elections
they all got 6.69 % of the total polled votes. While in 2018 general elections religious vote was
6.30 % of the total polled votes. Religious parties got 1.32% more votes as compared to overall
average percent votes of previous ten general elections. However, the percentage of religious
parties‟ vote was less in Punjab as compared to the percentage of religious vote country wide.
Certain prominent features of general elections 2018 related to religiosity are mentioned
below. The Rise of Tahreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan The 2018 general elections saw the rise of a new
religious party named Tahreek-eLabbaik Pakistan (TLP which is a right-wing party supported by
the barelvi sects of Sunni Islam. TLP is purely based on religious ideology and it presented as the
guardian of Islam‟s honor and the protector of Pakistan‟s blasphemy laws (Nambiar, 2017).
Barelvi are probably 60 to 65 percent of total population, but they didn‟t have a proper voice in
the political filed of country. Earlier there were few parties claiming the barelvi support but
none of them has succeeded to gain electoral weightage. Even it was quite evident that other
main stream political parties have been using the barelvi sentiments for their support
particularly PML-N (Zaidi, 2017). It was the issue of blasphemy which has become a reason for
the emergence of TLP and to apply themselves as a strong force within the barelvi followers
(Khan, 2018). So much so that TLP has become a champion of barelvi followers, even some
other prominent barelvi groups have merged with them. As Teehreek-e-Sirat-e-Mustaqeem and
Tehreek-e-Tahafuz-e-Islam. Tahreek-eLabbaik Pakistan purely appeared as an anti-blasphemy
party (Pakistan Today, 2018). They have taken up the issue so nicely that even other sects of
Deobandi and Ahle Hadith schools of thought have been supportive of them. It was year 2010
when a bill was proposed by the PPP government to amend the blasphemy laws, but it was
withdrawn because of the harsh reaction of religious parties. Governor of Punjab Salman
Taseer who was very vocal for the support of the bill was murdered by Mumtaz Qadri, who was
governor‟s personal security guard. Qadri was arrested and during his trial people came to
support him in large numbers. TLYRA started a movement to release him from jail (Nambiar,
2017). When he was hanged in 2016 his admirers proclaimed him a martyr and protested
across Pakistan during that period TLP headed by Khadim Hussain Rizvi.
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arose as a strong supporter of Mumtaz Qadri (SHAH, 2018). Since then they have been
proclaiming themselves as defenders of Sunni Islam. Tahreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan openly
supports that; vigilant style mob justice is fair to deal with anyone who has been alleged to
blasphemy Prophet Mohammad PBUH. They have praised people who are involved in religious
violence over the issue of blasphemy. People also have backing for such mob justice and joining
their movement in large numbers which has popularized TLP (Salman, 2018). They are securing
barelvi vote bank by raising the religious sentiments of people. TLP took a lift during the last
days of PML-N government when a change was made in the oath for members of national and
Provincial assembly the error was rectified but TLP staged a sit in at Faizabad for more than two
weeks., it halted the life of twin cities Rawalpindi and Islamabad and further showcased their
strength as a potential political party. So, owing to this background TLP participated in the 2018
general elections. They fielded 130 candidates in Punjab for National Assembly’s 141 general
seats and 263 candidates for Punjab provincial assembly seats. TLP hit a success and bagged
2234265 National Assembly votes throughout the country (ECP, 2018). And it became the fifth
largest party of Pakistan. TLP‟s biggest success came from Punjab province where they
emerged as the 3rd largest party of Punjab with 1705683 votes. Tahreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan’s
anthem “Deen Aya Deen Aya” switched people to support them keeping in mind that they are
the true bearer of Islam. Khadim Hussain Rizvi even termed their success as God‟s will. And
claimed that “the seed of TLP was planted by Mumtaz Qadri, now it has become a plant and on
way to becoming a large tree” (Yusuf, 2018). TLP used religion for the political goal. They used
the mosques to a great level for spreading their massage to the people. They also used the holy
month of Ramzan for their political purpose. Their gatherings around sehri, iftar and even
taraweeh prayers turned good for them. Even during their gatherings, they took oath from
people by raising hands to support their cause (Yusuf, 2018). TLP had provided an effective
platform for barelvi supporters to vote for them. Because previously barelvi voters did not have
a proper say in elections. Sunni Tehreek was present but could not attract people much. So
barelvi politics have found a room in TLP. Interestingly majority of their votes came from urban
areas especially from Faisalabad, Gujranwala and Lahore. Emergence of Milli Muslim League
The emergence of Milli Muslim League on the scene of politics is another significant feature of
2018 general election, which contested the elections on the name of Allah Ho Akbar Tehreek.
They are the followers of the Ahle-Hadith teachings. Milli Muslim League has the backing of
Jamaaat-ud-Dawa. Which is a charity wing of Hafiz Saeed‟s headed Lashkar-e-Taiba.8
Hafiz Saeed formed a political wing of Jamat-ud-Dawa in August 2017 named Milli Muslim
League to contest the elections. The purpose was to make Pakistan a real Islamic and welfare
state. MML‟s charter asserted that it aims to implement the injunctions of Quran and Sunna in
socio-political matters of Pakistan (Fair, 2018). However, MML was banned as a political party
to contest elections by the Election Commission of Pakistan because Lashkar-e-Taiba is an
accused militant group and their activities are banned by the government of Pakistan. Even

8
SSRN Electronic Journal, 10, May. Ghauri & Malik, T. (2018).
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Hafiz Saeed has been declared a terrorist by United Nations Organization with 10 million dollars
on his head money (Pakistan Today, 2018). Furthermore, USA has also declared Lashkar-e-Taiba
as a terrorist organization in year 2002 (Fair, 2018). Despite such allegations, it is a fact that
Jamaat-ud-Dawa’s charity work has been very popular. Their efforts after earth quakes and
floods have created lots of goodwill for them in society. Many people believe that Jamaat-ud-
Dawa can better deliver the services that even Pakistan state has failed to deliver (Pakistan
Today, 2018). That is why MML (AHAT) performed very well in elections. They obtained 435000
votes in both National and Provincial elections and among that its major share of votes came
from Punjab (ECP, 2018). A large number of supporters of Jamaat-ud-Dawa came to vote for
the first time in elections and casted their vote in favor of MML (AHAT). Interestingly, Hafiz
Saeed and LeT has been critical of politics and termed elections and voting as an un-Islamic
thing (Abbas, 2018), that is why initially Hafiz Saeed has denied their links with MML, but it has
proved other way around. And letter on Jamaat-ud-Dawa has openly supported MML
candidates and Hafiz Saeed „pictures were displayed on their campaign poster and banners.
Decline of Jamaat-e-Islami vote bank Jamaat-e Islami is the oldest religious party of Pakistan, is
having a downwards trends in their electoral support. There was a time when JI was the biggest
religious party of the Punjab having a handsome amount of vote bank. They have been a key
player in the electoral politics of Punjab. Although JI could not succeed to win many seats, yet
their votes were very critical in the victory of other congesting candidates. Jammat-e-Islami,
Jamiat Ulema Islam along with Jamiat Ulema Pakistan has a relatively moderate approach of
Islam. They always believe in bringing change in society through elections and votes (Abbas,
2018). Moreover, they had also contributed in the formation of 1973 constitution. However,
with the passage of time these oldest religious parties are losing their popularity. Same was the
case in 2018 election when JI faced the dilemma of confusion, they supported PTI in the KP
government but lost the gains near the 2018 election by being critical of PTI‟S policies. This
created a major dent to their electoral support (Abbas, 2018). They could not impress voters
much in elections although they contested election under the banner of MMA. Lack of votes to
MMA from Punjab shows that JI totally failed to get much support from their voters in Punjab.
These older religious parties could not change themselves according to the new pattern of post
9/11 politics and it gave way to more hardliners as TLP and MML to attract more voters. Pirs
and politics in Punjab Pirs are men of all political seasons; they are an integral component of
Pakistan's electoral politics. They play a vital part especially in the rural politics of Punjab.
(Ghauri & Malik, 2018). Islamic practices are deeply rooted in Pakistan society. People show
huge respect towards mosques, madrasas and shrines. Pirs or gaddi nasheens; who are
custodians of shrines of the religious and spiritual persons, are a significant figure of our
society. There are vast number of shrines scattered all over the country, having thousands of
followers. They have a massive influence in their area. People give them respect, honor, love
and devotion. These Pirs holds the spiritual, religious and even land power which makes them a
strong reality of their area. (Rehman, 2018). The Sufis have contributed a lot in spreading the
teachings of Islam in subcontinent. It is because of their inspirational life and character that
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people of subcontinent converted towards Islam (Warraich, 2017).9 They have beard difficulties
and sufferings during their cause. That is why Sufi saints enjoy respect, love and devoutness.
However, with the passage of time many custodians of shrines have indulged in the worldly
gains and manipulate their power and position. They have used religion for the sake of their
lust for power and to safeguard their interests. Their role in politics is almost thousand years
old, history has many examples of their intervention in politics. Moinuddin Chishti the founder
of Chishti order, Nizam Uddin Auliya, Amir Khusro, Baba Farid Uddin Ganjshakar, Nosho Ganj
Bakhsh all of these have a strong political influence during their time (Warraich, 2017). After
the creation of Pakistan centuries old traditions continued rulers like governor general Malik
Ghulam Muhammad, Field Marshal Ayub Khan and Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto all of them have their
Pirs, to whom they pay regular visits. Because of Pirs influence over large amount of people
they become a dominant player in the electoral politics. as their devotees look for their
guidance during elections. They play an important position in the electoral politics either by
directly contesting the election or by supporting a candidate of their own choice (Ghauri &
Malik, 2018). Their support or opposition to electoral candidates plays a critical role in their
success. Due to Pir’s dominance in a respective area all the major political parties willfully offer
them party tickets. However, because of their huge followership even they have been able to
win the elections without the support of a major political party. They contest election as an
independent candidate and after winning they join the party of their own choice. This places
them in a better position to bargain maximum benefits for them (Shah, 2018). Recently the
term “electable” have been coined to show their influence in an area to win election
comprehensively as an independent candidate. Pirs and Syed families are not even 1% of the
society however, their presence was 11% in the 2013 Parliament, 46 members were pirs or
gaddi nasheens out of 446 total seats, which indicates their importance (Warraich, 2017). And
in 2018 general elections as well Pirs were very active in various constituencies of Punjab. In
terms of numbers there are around 64 shrines in Punjab who have direct political connections.
District Multan has the highest number of shrine families in politics followed by district Jhung,
Rahim Yar Khan, Okara, Taunsa Sharif (Shah, 2018). There are three influential spiritual families
of Punjab who hold significant position not only religiously but also politically. They use religion
for gaining political purpose in their locality it includes pirs of Taunsa Sharif, Siayal Sharif and
Golara Sharif. Sialvi is the biggest spiritual family of Central, Northern and Southern parts of
Punjab. it dominates in districts Sargodha Khushab, Chiniot, Faisalabad and Jhung. Khawaja
Hameed Uddin Sialvi is the Sajjada Nasheen of Hazrat Khawaja Shamsuddin Sialvi‟s shrine. Their
supporters and followers win elections because of their open support and favor (Warraich,
2017). Hameed Uddin Sialvi was very pro-active during the 2018 elections because the issue of
Khatme Nabuwat. He has influence in many constituencies of National Assembly including NA-
88, NA-89, NA-90, NA-91, NA-92, NA-93, NA-94, NA-99, NA-100, NA-106, NA-114, NA115 and

9
The News on Sunday. Retrieved December 10, 2018
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NA-116 (Abrar, 2018). District Jhang is highly rich in terms of shrines. It is the home of shrine of
Hazrat Sultan Bahu, whose descendant is Sahibzada Mehboob Sultan who contested elections
from NA-114, and his cousin was contesting from NA-116. Makhdoom Faisal Saleh Hayat who is
successor of the shrine of Hazrat Shah Jeewna, contest election from NA-114 and his brother
Asad Aayat contested election from NA-99. Tounsa Sharif is a subdivision in Dera Ghazi Khan
where the shrine of Hazrat Muhammad Amaan Shah Taunsvi is a cause of magnetism. They
have a strong hold in DG Khan and Dera Ismail Khan’s political scenes. In South Punjab the
shrine of Hazrat Baha Uddin Zakariya Multani is a source of inspiration for thousands of
Muslims. Shah Mahmood Qureshi is the Sajjada Nasheen of this shrine in Multan and contest
election from NA-156 and NA-157. Golra Sharif if is the shrine of Pir Mehar Ali Shah their
followers are actively involved in politics of Rawalpindi and Islamabad (Abrar, 2018), and plays a
critical role in the success of candidates in elections. Conclusion Religion as a determinant of
voting behavior is best expressed in the vote bank of religious political parties. Religious parties
are the one who manipulate religion and religious beliefs of people for their political gains.
They wish to subordinate politics to religion and are very eager to use state apparatus to make
people good Muslims and turns the country into a fort of Islam. The history of religious vote
bank in Pakistan and Punjab indicates a warrying trend. Religious parties have huge
followership, but they could not convert their support into vote. Religious parties have received
an average 7.55% votes in Pakistan and 4.98% votes in Punjab. The religious votes increase in
Punjab when it increases in Pakistan and vice versa. However, the ratio of increase of votes in
Punjab is quite less than Pakistan. In Punjab religious parties began in 1970 elections with
19.86% votes, which is their maximum score so far, yet it shows huge variations in the next
elections and has even got 0.24% votes in 2008 elections which is their lowest score. In 2018
general elections religious vote bank increased mainly because the emergence of some new
religious groups in the electoral politics as TLP and MML.

Doubts About the Fairness of the Electoral Process

The transition in the democratic process was marred by serious allegations of intimidation and
rigging of the elections. Reports by Pakistan’s independent Human Rights Commission and the
European Union election observers suggested the denial of a level-playing field to the PML(N)
and raised questions about the fairness of the poll process (European Union Election
Observation Mission, 2018). There were complaints of rigging on polling day itself. All parties,
except PTI, alleged large-scale rigging. Many party leaders alleged that their polling agents were
barred from the polling stations before counting. The polls were marred by long delays in
counting and the election commission’s failure to provide the results on official forms. A
multiparty meeting on 27 July rejected the results of the elections alleging rigging and
demanded a transparent re-election. All these led to doubts about the fairness of the elections.
There are strong reasons to believe that the election process was vitiated in the run-up to it.
The timing of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification for life from public office and his
conviction through a selective and speedy judicial process, numerous defections engineered
12 | P a g e

from his party, active subversion of the media and participation of religious extremists, aimed
at eroding Nawaz Sharif’s support, all seemed to have a pattern. It was apparent that the
military did not want Nawaz Sharif back in power and was using a surreptitious strategy to
weaken the PML(N). It is hard to find the evidence in this political engineering. It also has
implications for civil–military relations. The message seems to be that any assertion by civilian
authority could lead to its taming by subversion of the electoral process itself. Nawaz Sharif’s
differences with the military started with his public airing of insider details of the Kargil
operations planned and executed by General Pervez Musharraf. He was ousted by General
Musharraf and exiled to Saudi Arabia in a coup in 1999. The military’s distrust of Nawaz Sharif
had deepened during his third term as prime minister after his return to power in 2013. His
efforts to prosecute the former military dictator General Musharraf for subverting the
constitution and trying to assert civilian control over national security policy and an
independent streak in foreign policy also had created a rift with the military. He was also
considered too accommodating towards India. Nawaz Sharif’s attempts to assert civilian control
was discomforting for the military. A story in the newspaper Dawn in October 2016 known as
the Dawn leaks regarding a showdown between the civilian government and the Inter-Services
Intelligence (ISI) revealed publicly the shrouded differences. According to the story, apparently
the Nawaz Sharif government had directed the ISI to take action against banned militant
groups, conclude the Pathankot attack investigation and restart the stalled Mumbai attacks-
related trials as Pakistan was facing diplomatic isolation. There were clear directives to the ISI
chief for action against, Masood Azhar, Hafeez Saeed and the Haqqani network (Almeida,
2016). Expectedly, both the civilian government and the ISI denied that such a meeting had
ever taken place. Since then the newspaper has come under tremendous pressures. The
newspaper, however, has not retracted the story. If the episode was true, it clearly shows why
the military thinks Nawaz Sharif had crossed the redline in dictating national security polices to
the military. Later, the Dawn carried an interview of Nawaz Sharif in May 2018 in which he said,
‘Militant organizations are active. Call them non-state actors, should we allow them to cross the
border and kill 150 people in Mumbai? Explain it to me. Why can’t we complete the trial?’
(Almeida, 2018) This was a reference to the Mumbai attacks and the stalled trials in an
Islamabad anti-terrorism court. After the publication of this interview, Dawn faced the wrath of
the military for having crossed all limits.

Conclusion
Parliamentary Elections In July 2018 brought the right-wing Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf (Pakistan
Justice Party, PTI), headed by former cricketer Imran Khan, to power. The elections were
undermined by serious allegations of fraud and widespread interference in the electoral
process by the military’s intelligence arm, the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI), which
supported Khan’s campaign. While the military still remains dominant in the power structure in
13 | P a g e

Pakistan, it is increasingly becoming clear that it is unlikely to seize power again. Pakistan has
become a difficult country to govern. Even if the military does not wield power directly, it still
remains the final arbiter in Pakistan’s politics as the 2018 general elections have indicated.
While observers and analysts will have strong reasons to surmise, they will find it very hard to
prove what role the military played in Nawaz Sharif’s conviction or gliding Imran Khan towards
victory. The ouster of Nawaz Sharif raises questions about Pakistan’s fragile democracy. In
future, Pakistan’s democratic process might not be derailed; it will simply be guided. Years of
social and political engineering have unleashed forces in Pakistan that have created structural
incapacities to address social, economic and security challenges. Neither the political class nor
the military has solutions to these problems. There are also no short-term solutions to its
economic crisis. Can Imran Khan make a difference? So far, Imran Khan has shown a superficial
understanding of the problems faced by Pakistan. There are also enormous contradictions in his
worldview. His appeal to the people through populism will very quickly be punctured by the
hard realities of governance. Further, he might realize soon that Pakistan’s problems are
structural. Political regimes are not able to govern, as the experience of the last two regimes
suggest. It has to be seen whether Imran Khan will also be distracted from governance. Overall
situation will depend on how well he handles civil–military relations. The fact is that no prime
minister in Pakistan has completed a full term since independence. The Pakistan military does
not want a genuinely popular civilian politician in power, backed by an electoral mandate. It
also wants the civilian government to protect the core interests of the military in policymaking.
The establishment in Pakistan has great experience in dealing with civil authority; Imran Khan
has no previous experience of running a government. If not policies, Imran Khan’s personality—
his self-image—can become a factor in a potential clash with the military. It is one thing to have
come to power with their help and another to be seen as their puppet. While the military might
be effusive about managing the electoral process to its advantage, it cannot take Imran Khan
for granted. We might be witnessing new dynamics in civil–military relations under the new
government.

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