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Capital Market Theory

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Capital mkt theory is used to dev a model for pricing

risky assets.
Assumptions:
1. All investors are markwitz efficient investors who want
to target points on the efficient frontier. The exact
location on the eff frontier depnds on the investrs risk
retunr utility functn.
2. Investors can borrow or lend any amnt of money @ the
risk free rate of return. It is always possibl to lend money
@ the nominal risk free rate by purchasin risk free
securities like tbills cds, bt it is not always possble to
borrw @ thte risk fre rate.
3. All investors hav homogeneous expectations. They
estimate identical probability distr for future rates of
returns.this is not a realistic assumption
4.all investors hav the same one period time horizon such
as one month, 6 mnths or 1yr. Ie, the model is develpd for
a single hypothetical period
5. All investments are infinitely divisible. That means, it
is possible to buy or sell fractional shares of any asset
portfolio.
6. Ther r no taxes or transaction costs involved in buying
or selling some assets. For eg, neither pension funds nor
religious grps hav to pay taxes. Transaction costs on most
financial instrumnents are less than 1%
7ther is no inflation or ne chnage ininterest rates or
inflation is fully anticipated.
8. Capital mkts are in equillibrium situation. All assets are
properly priced in line with their risk levels.

The major factor which is required to develop the model


is the risk free asset.
Risk free asset is an asset with zero standard deviation.
It has 0 correlation with all other risky assets. It provides
risk free rate of return. It always lies on the vertical axis
on the portfolio graph.

COVrfi = ∑[Rf – E(Rf)(Ri-E(Ri)]/(n-1)


If sd is zero, Rf = E(Rf)
Therefore, cov = 0
Rrfi=0

There are two assets: one is risk free and the risky asset
When combined, the expected return from the portfolio
Wrf = weight of risk free
1- Wrf = weight of risky
E(Rport) = Wrf(Rrf) + (1-Wrf)(E(Ri))
E(σ2port) = wrf2 σrf2+(1+Wrf)2 σi2 + 2Wrf(1-Wrf)COVrfi
=(1+Wrf)2 σi2
E(σ port )= (1+Wrf) σi
There is a linear relationship between portfolio standard
deviation and standard deviation of risky assets.

Total risk of market portfolio consists of unsystematic


risk and systematic risk.
Unsystematic risk is the unique risk of an individual asset
and can be eliminated through diversification.
The total risk of the market portfolio can be reduced by
adding securities in the portfolio. As the number of
securities increases, total risk decreases.
But systematic risk cannot be diversified away and it is
caused by various macroeconomic variables such as
variability in the money supply, interest rate volatility,
variability in the industrial productions, variability in
corporate earnings and cash flows.
CAPM is used to determine the expected or required rate
of return on a risky asset.
Whether an asset is overpriced or underpriced or properly
valued can be determined using CAPM and Security
Market Line.
E(Ri) = Rf +β(Rm-Rf)

Systematic risk of a risky asset is its covariance with the


market portfolio
β = covim/σ2m

σi= (σi/σm) x (co vim/σiσm)

covim = ∑(m – mbar)(I – ibar)/(n-1)

Any investor can choose any combination of the risk free


asset and risky asset along the line RFRA. It will give the
higher return than any point below the point A on the
efficient frontier.
The portfolio possibilities along the line RFRB will
provide higher return than any portfolio along the line
RFRA.
(If we draw another line which will be tangent to efficient
frontier, it will provide greater return)
This tangent point M, will provide the highest portfolio
possibilities for the investors which will provide the
highest return. This line is called Capital Market Line.
Every investor will want to invest in portfolio M which
leads all investors to invest at this point.
If the investor wants to invest beyond the point M, he will
take higher risk to get higher return.
If an investor add leverage to the portfolio by borrowing
money at the risk free rate and investing in the risky
portfolio at M, what would be the return and risk?
For eg, if an investor want to borrow an amount equal to
50% of his wealth, the effect on expected return and risk
for his portfolio would be:
E(Rprt) = Wrf x Rfr + (1-Wrf)E(Ri)
= - 0.5 Rfr +(1-(-0.5))E(Ri)
= -0.5 Rfr +1.5E(Ri)

The gross return increases by 50% but the investor must


pay the interest from the borrowed money.
The the Rfr is 6% and E(Ri) on the risky asset is 12%
= 15%
E(σprt) = (1- Wrf)σi
=(1-(-o.5)) σi
= 1.5 σi
Risk and return both increases

Risk averse investors lend part of their portfolio at the risk


free rate and invest the reminder amount in the market
portfolio.
Investors who prefer more risk try to borrow money at the
risk free rate and invest everything in the market
portfolio. So the decision to borrow or lend to obtain a
point on the capital market line is a separate Financing
decision based on the risk preference. This separation of
the investment and financing decision is referred to as the
Separation Theorem.
CML leads all investors to invest in the M portfolio at
tangent point which combines risk free asset and risky
assets. Individual investors differ in position on the CML
depending on risk preference.

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