Center for the National Interest

The End of History?

Author(s): Francis Fukuyama
Source: The National Interest, No. 16 (Summer 1989), pp. 3-18
Published by: Center for the National Interest
Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/24027184
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 The End of History?
-Francis Fukuyama.

over the past decade or so, it is daily headlines. The twentieth century saw
IN WATCHING the flow of events process that gives coherence and order to the
hard to avoid the feeling that the developed world descend into a paroxysm
something very fundamental has happened in of ideological violence, as liberalism contend
world history. The past year has seen a flood ed first with the remnants of absolutism, then
of articles commemorating the end of the Cold bolshevism and fascism, and finally an updat
War, and the fact that "peace" seems to be ed Marxism that threatened to lead to the ul
breaking out in many regions of the world. timate apocalypse of nuclear war. But the cen
Most of these analyses lack any larger con- tury that began full of self-confidence in the
ceptual framework for distinguishing be- ultimate triumph of Western liberal democ
tween what is essential and what is contingent racy seems at its close to be returning full
or accidental in world history, and are pre- circle to where it started: not to an "end of
dictably superficial. If Mr. Gorbachev were ideology" or a convergence between capital
ousted from the Kremlin or a new Ayatollah ism and socialism, as earlier predicted, but to
proclaimed the millennium from a desolate an unabashed victory of economic and polit
Middle Eastern capital, these same commen- ical liberalism.
tators would scramble to announce the rebirth The triumph of the West, of the Western
of a new era of conflict. idea, is evident first of all in the total exhaus
And yet, all of these people sense dimly tion of viable systematic alternatives to West
that there is some larger process at work, a ern liberalism. In the past decade, there have
been unmistakable changes in the intellectual
Francis Fukuyama is deputy director of the State climate of the world's two largest communist
Department's policy planning staff and former countries, and the beginnings of significant
analyst at the rand Corporation. This article reform movements in both. But this phenom
is based on a lecture presented at the Univer- enon extends beyond high politics and it can
sity of Chicago's John M. Olin Center for In- be seen also in the ineluctable spread of con
quiry Into the Theory and Practice of De- sumerist Western culture in such diverse con
mocracy. The author would like to pay special texts as the peasants' markets and color tele
thanks to the Olin Center and to Nathan Tar- vision sets now omnipresent throughout
cov and Allan Bloom for their support in this China, the cooperative restaurants and cloth
and many earlier endeavors. The opinions ex- ing stores opened in the past year in Moscow,
pressed in this article do not reflect those of the Beethoven piped into Japanese depart
the rand Corporation or of any agency of the ment stores, and the rock music enjoyed alike
U.S. government. in Prague, Rangoon, and Tehran.

The National Interest—Summer 1989 3

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 What we may be witnessing is not just and not, as earlier natural right theorists
the end of the Cold War, or the passing of a would have it, a collection of more or less fixed
particular period of postwar history, but the "natural" attributes. The mastery and trans
end of history as such: that is, the end point formation of man's natural environment
of mankind's ideological evolution and the through the application of science and tech
universalization of Western liberal democracy nology was originally not a Marxist concept,
as the final form of human government. This but a Hegelian one. Unlike later historicists
is not to say that there will no longer be events whose historical relativism degenerated into
to fill the pages of Foreign Affairs's yearly sum relativism tout court, however, Hegel believed
maries of international relations, for the vic that history culminated in an absolute mo
tory of liberalism has occurred primarily in ment—a moment in which a final, rational
the realm of ideas or consciousness and is as form of society and state became victorious.
yet incomplete in the real or material world. It is Hegel's misfortune to be known now
But there are powerful reasons for believing primarily as Marx's precursor, and it is our
that it is the ideal that will govern the material misfortune that few of us are familiar with
world in the long run. To understand how this Hegel's work from direct study, but only as
is so, we must first consider some theoretical it has been filtered through the distorting lens
issues concerning the nature of historical of Marxism. In France, however, there has
change. been an effort to save Hegel from his Marxist
interpreters and to resurrect him as the phi
losopher who most correctly speaks to our
time. Among those modern French inter
preters of Hegel, the greatest was certainly
THE NOTION
is not of
an the end of
original one.history
Its best Alexandre Kojève, a brilliant Russian emigre
known propagator was Karl Marx, who be who taught a highly influential series of sem
lieved that the direction of historical devel inars in Paris in the 1930s at the Ecole Practique
opment was a purposeful one determined by des Hautes Etudes.1 While largely unknown in
the interplay of material forces, and would the United States, Kojève had a major impact
come to an end only with the achievement of on the intellectual life of the continent.
a communist Utopia that would finally resolve Among his students ranged such future lu
all prior contradictions. But the concept ofminaries as Jean-Paul Sartre on the Left and
history as a dialectical process with a begin Raymond Aron on the Right; postwar exis
ning, a middle, and an end was borrowed by tentialism borrowed many of its basic cate
Marx from his great German predecessor, gories from Hegel via Kojève.
Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel. Kojève sought to resurrect the Hegel of
For better or worse, much of Hegel's his the Phenomenology of Mind, the Hegel who pro
toricism has become part of our contemporary claimed history to be at an end in 1806. For
intellectual baggage. The notion that mankind as early as this Hegel saw in Napoleon's defeat
has progressed through a series of primitiveof the Prussian monarchy at the Battle of Jena
stages of consciousness on his path to the pres the victory of the ideals of the French Rev
ent, and that these stages corresponded to con
crete forms of social organization, such as trib 'Kojève's best-known work is his Introduction à la
al, slave-owning, theocratic, and finally lecture de Hegel (Paris: Editions Gallimard,
democratic-egalitarian societies, has become 1947), which is a transcript of the Ecole Practique
inseparable from the modern understanding lectures from the 1930s. This book is available
of man. Hegel was the first philosopher to in English entitled Introduction to the Reading
speak the language of modern social science, of Hegel arranged by Raymond Queneau, edited
insofar as man for him was the product of his by Allan Bloom, and translated by James Ni
concrete historical and social environment chols (New York: Basic Books, 1969).

The National Interest—Summer 1989 .

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olution, and the imminent universalization of issues, and consequently no need for generals
the state incorporating the principles of lib or statesmen; what remains is primarily eco
erty and equality. Kojève, far from rejecting nomic activity. And indeed, Kojève's life was
Hegel in light of the turbulent events of the consistent with his teaching. Believing that
next century and a half, insisted that the latter there was no more work for philosophers as
had been essentially correct.2 The Battle of well, since Hegel (correctly understood) had
Jena marked the end of history because it was already achieved absolute knowledge, Kojève
at that point that the vanguard of humanity (a left teaching after the war and spent the re
term quite familiar to Marxists) actualized the mainder of his life working as a bureaucrat
principles of the French Revolution. While in the European Economic Community, until
there was considerable work to be done after his death in 1968.
1806—abolishing slavery and the slave trade, To his contemporaries at mid-century,
extending the franchise to workers, women, Kojève's proclamation of the end of history
blacks, and other racial minorities, etc.—the must have seemed like the typical eccentric
basic principles of the liberal democratic state solipsism of a French intellectual, coming as
could not be improved upon. The two world it did on the heels of World War II and at the
wars in this century and their attendant rev very height of the Cold War. To comprehend
olutions and upheavals simply had the effect how Kojève could have been so audacious as
of extending those principles spatially, such to assert that history has ended, we must first
that the various provinces of human civili of all understand the meaning of Hegelian
zation were brought up to the level of its most idealism.
advanced outposts, and of forcing those so
II
cieties in Europe and North America at the
vanguard of civilization to implement their
liberalism more fully.
FOR HEGEL, the exist
drive history contradictions
first of all inthat
the
The state that emerges at the end of his realm of human consciousness, i.e. on the level
tory is liberal insofar as it recognizes and pro of ideas4—not the trivial election year pro
tects through a system of law man's universal posals of American politicians, but ideas in
right to freedom, and democratic insofar as it the sense of large unifying world views that
exists only with the consent of the governed. might best be understood under the rubric of
For Kojève, this so-called "universal homo ideology. Ideology in this sense is not restrict
genous state" found real-life embodiment in ed to the secular and explicit political doc
the countries of postwar Western Europe— trines we usually associate with the term, but
precisely those flabby, prosperous, self-satis can include religion, culture, and the complex
fied, inward-looking, weak-willed states
whose grandest project was nothing more he 2In this respect Kojève stands in sharp contrast to
roic than the creation of the Common Mar contemporary German interpreters of Hegel
ket.' But this was only to be expected. For like Herbert Marcuse who, being more sym
human history and the conflict that charac pathetic to Marx, regarded Hegel ultimately
terized it was based on the existence of "con as an historically bound and incomplete phi
tradictions": primitive man's quest for mutual losopher.
recognition, the dialectic of the master and 'Kojève alternatively identified the end of history
slave, the transformation and mastery of na with the postwar "American way of life," to
ture, the struggle for the universal recognition ward which he thought the Soviet Union was
of rights, and the dichotomy between prole moving as well.
tarian and capitalist. But in the universal ho This notion was expressed in the famous aphorism
mogenous state, all prior contradictions are from the preface to the Philosophy of History to
resolved and all human needs are satisfied. the effect that "everything that is rational is
There is no struggle or conflict over "large" real, and everything that is real is rational."

The End of History ?

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of moral values underlying any society as or historical phenomena, and our disinclina
well. tion to believe in the autonomous power of
Hegel's view of the relationship between ideas. A recent example of this is Paul Ken
the ideal and the real or material worlds was nedy's hugely successful The Rise and Fall of
an extremely complicated one, beginning the Great Powers, which ascribes the decline of
with the fact that for him the distinction be
great powers to simple economic overexten
tween the two was only apparent.5 He did not sion. Obviously, this is true on some level: an
believe that the real world conformed or could empire whose economy is barely above the
be made to conform to ideological preconcep level of subsistence cannot bankrupt its treas
tions of philosophy professors in any simple ury indefinitely. But whether a highly pro
minded way, or that the "material" world ductive modern industrial society chooses to
could not impinge on the ideal. Indeed, Hegel spend 3 or 7 percent of its GNP on defense
the professor was temporarily thrown out of rather than consumption is entirely a matter
work as a result of a very material event, the of that society's political priorities, which are
Battle of Jena. But while Hegel's writing and in turn determined in the realm of conscious
thinking could be stopped by a bullet from ness.

the material world, the hand on the trigger The materialist bias of modern thought
of the gun was motivated in turn by the ideas is characteristic not only of people on the Left
of liberty and equality that had driven the who may be sympathetic to Marxism, but of
French Revolution. many passionate anti-Marxists as well. In
For Hegel, all human behavior in the ma deed, there is on the Right what one might
terial world, and hence all human history, is label the Wall Street Journal school of deter
rooted in a prior state of consciousness—an ministic materialism that discounts the im
idea similar to the one expressed by John May portance of ideology and culture and sees man
nard Keynes when he said that the views of as essentially a rational, profit-maximizing in
men of affairs were usually derived from de dividual. It is precisely this kind of individual
funct economists and academic scribblers of and his pursuit of material incentives that is
earlier generations. This consciousness may posited as the basis for economic life as such
not be explicit and self-aware, as are modernin economic textbooks.6 One small example
political doctrines, but may rather take the will illustrate the problematic character of
form of religion or simple cultural or moralsuch materialist views.
habits. And yet this realm of consciousness in Max Weber begins his famous book, The
the long run necessarily becomes manifest in Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism, by
the material world, indeed creates the material noting the different economic performance of
world in its own image. Consciousness is
cause and not effect, and can develop auton
omously from the material world; hence the 'Indeed, for Hegel the very dichotomy between the
real subtext underlying the apparent jumble ideal and material worlds was itself only an
of current events is the history of ideology. apparent one that was ultimately overcome by
Hegel's idealism has fared poorly at the the self-conscious subject; in his system, the
hands of later thinkers. Marx reversed the material world is itself only an aspect of mind.
priority of the real and the ideal completely, "In fact, modern economists, recognizing that man
relegating the entire realm of consciousness— does not always behave as a /»ro/ît-maximizer,
religion, art, culture, philosophy itself—to a posit a "utility" function, utility being either
"superstructure" that was determined entire income or some other good that can be max
ly by the prevailing material mode of pro imized: leisure, sexual satisfaction, or the pleas
duction. Yet another unfortunate legacy of ure of philosophizing. That profit must be re
Marxism is our tendency to retreat into ma placed with a value like utility indicates the
terialist or utilitarian explanations of political cogency of the idealist perspective.

The National Interest—Summer 1989 .

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Protestant and Catholic communities strictions on certain forms of economic be
throughout Europe and America, summed havior,
up and other deeply ingrained moral
in the proverb that Protestants eat wellqualities,
while are equally important in explaining
Catholics sleep well. Weber notes that their ac
economic performance.7 And yet the in
tellectual weight of materialism is such that
cording to any economic theory that posited
not the
man as a rational profit-maximizer, raising a single respectable contemporary theory
of economic development addresses con
piece-work rate should increase labor produc
sciousness and culture seriously as the matrix
tivity. But in fact, in many traditional peasant
communities, raising the piece-work withinrate acwhich economic behavior is formed.
tually had the opposite effect of lowering labor
productivity: at the higher rate, a peasant ac
customed to earning two and one-half marks FAILURE to understand
of economic that lie
behavior theinroots
the
realm
per day found he could earn the same amount of consciousness and culture leads to
by working less, and did so because he valued the common mistake of attributing material
leisure more than income. The choices of lei causes to phenomena that are essentially ideal
sure over income, or of the militaristic life of in nature. For example, it is commonplace in
the Spartan hoplite over the wealth of the the West to interpret the reform movements
Athenian trader, or even the ascetic life of the first in China and most recently in the Soviet
early capitalist entrepreneur over that of a Union as the victory of the material over the
ideal—that is, a recognition that ideological
traditional leisured aristocrat, cannot possibly
be explained by the impersonal working of incentives could not replace material ones in
material forces, but come preeminently out of stimulating a highly productive modern econ
the sphere of consciousness—what we have omy, and that if one wanted to prosper one
labeled here broadly as ideology. And indeed, had to appeal to baser forms of self-interest.
a central theme of Weber's work was to prove But the deep defects of socialist economies
that contrary to Marx, the material mode of were evident thirty or forty years ago to any
production, far from being the "base," was one who chose to look. Why was it that these
itself a "superstructure" with roots in religion countries moved away from central planning
and culture, and that to understand the emerg only in the 1980s? The answer must be found
ence of modern capitalism and the profit mo in the consciousness of the elites and leaders
tive one had to study their antecedents in the ruling them, who decided to opt for the "Prot
realm of the spirit. estant" life of wealth and risk over the "Cath
As we look around the contemporary olic" path of poverty and security.8 That
world, the poverty of materialist theories of
economic development is all too apparent.
The Wall Street Journal school of deterministic 'One need look no further than the recent per
materialism habitually points to the stunning formance of Vietnamese immigrants in the
economic success of Asia in the past few dec U.S. school system when compared to their
ades as evidence of the viability of free market black or Hispanic classmates to realize that
economics, with the implication that all so culture and consciousness are absolutely cru
cieties would see similar development were cial to explain not only economic behavior but
they simply to allow their populations to pur virtually every other important aspect of life
sue their material self-interest freely. Surely as well.

free markets and stable political systems are 8I understand that a full explanation of the origins
of the reform movements in China and Russia
a necessary precondition to capitalist econom
ic growth. But just as surely the cultural her is a good deal more complicated than this sim
itage of those Far Eastern societies, the ethic ple formula would suggest. The Soviet reform,
of work and saving and family, a religious for example, was motivated in good measure
heritage that does not, like Islam, place re by Moscow's sense of insecurity in the tech

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change was in no way made inevitable by the sphere. I want to avoid the materialist deter
material conditions in which either country minism that says that liberal economics inev
found itself on the eve of the reform, but in itably produces liberal politics, because I be
stead came about as the result of the victory lieve that both economics and politics
of one idea over another.9 presuppose an autonomous prior state of con
For Kojève, as for all good Hegelians, un sciousness that makes them possible. But that
derstanding the underlying processes of his state of consciousness that permits the growth
tory requires understanding developments in of liberalism seems to stabilize in the way one
the realm of consciousness or ideas, since con would expect at the end of history if it is
sciousness will ultimately remake the material underwritten by the abundance of a modern
world in its own image. To say that history free market economy. We might summarize
ended in 1806 meant that mankind's ideolog the content of the universal homogenous state
ical evolution ended in the ideals of the
as liberal democracy in the political sphere
French or American Revolutions: while combined
par with easy access to VCRs and stereos
ticular regimes in the real world might in
notthe economic.
implement these ideals fully, their theoretical
truth is absolute and could not be improved
Ill
upon. Hence it did not matter to Kojève that
the consciousness of the postwar generation
of Europeans had not been universalized HAVEof
WE in fact
history? reached
Are the
there, in end
other
words, any fundamental "contradictions" in
throughout the world; if ideological devel
human life that cannot be resolved in the con
opment had in fact ended, the homogenous
text of modern liberalism, that would be re
state would eventually become victorious
throughout the material world. solvable by an alternative political-economic
structure? If we accept the idealist premises
I have neither the space nor, frankly, the
ability to defend in depth Hegel's radical ide
alist perspective. The issue is not whether He nological-military realm. Nonetheless, neither
gel's system was right, but whether his percountry on the eve of its reforms was in such
spective might uncover the problematica state of material crisis that one could have

nature of many materialist explanations wepredicted the surprising reform paths ulti
often take for granted. This is not to deny the mately taken.
role of material factors as such. To a literal 'It is still not clear whether the Soviet peoples are
minded idealist, human society can be built as "Protestant" as Gorbachev and will follow
around any arbitrary set of principles regard him down that path.
less of their relationship to the material world."The internal politics of the Byzantine Empire at
And in fact men have proven themselves able the time of Justinian revolved around a conflict
to endure the most extreme material hard between the so-called monophysites and mon
ships in the name of ideas that exist in the othelites, who believed that the unity of the
realm of the spirit alone, be it the divinity of Holy Trinity was alternatively one of nature
cows or the nature of the Holy Trinity.10 or of will. This conflict corresponded to some
But while man's very perception of the extent to one between proponents of different
material world is shaped by his historical con racing teams in the Hippodrome in Byzantium
sciousness of it, the material world can clearly and led to a not insignificant level of political
affect in return the viability of a particular violence. Modern historians would tend to
state of consciousness. In particular, the spec seek the roots of such conflicts in antagonisms
tacular abundance of advanced liberal econ between social classes or some other modern
omies and the infinitely diverse consumer cul economic category, being unwilling to believe
ture made possible by them seem to both that men would kill each other over the nature
foster and preserve liberalism in the political of the Trinity.

The Notional Interest—Summer 1989 .

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laid out above, we must seek an answer to this other great alternative to liberalism, com
question in the realm of ideology and con munism, was far more serious. Marx, speaking
sciousness. Our task is not to answer exhaus Hegel's language, asserted that liberal society
tively the challenges to liberalism promoted contained a fundamental contradiction that
by every crackpot messiah around the world, could not be resolved within its context, that
but only those that are embodied in important between capital and labor, and this contra
social or political forces and movements, and diction has constituted the chief accusation
which are therefore part of world history. For against liberalism ever since. But surely, the
our purposes, it matters very little what class issue has actually been successfully re
strange thoughts occur to people in Albania solved in the West. As Kojève (among others)
or Burkina Faso, for we are interested in what noted, the egalitarianism of modern America
one could in some sense call the common ideo represents the essential achievement of the
logical heritage of mankind. classless society envisioned by Marx. This is
In the past century, there have been two not to say that there are not rich people and
major challenges to liberalism, those of fas poor people in the United States, or that the
cism and of communism. The former" saw gap between them has not grown in recent
the political weakness, materialism, anomie, years. But the root causes of economic ine
and lack of community of the West as fun quality do not have to do with the underlying
damental contradictions in liberal societies legal and social structure of our society, which
that could only be resolved by a strong state remains fundamentally egalitarian and mod
that forged a new "people" on the basis of erately redistributionist, so much as with the
national exclusiveness. Fascism was destroyed cultural and social characteristics of the
as a living ideology by World War II. This groups that make it up, which are in turn the
was a defeat, of course, on a very material historical legacy of premodern conditions.
level, but it amounted to a defeat of the idea Thus black poverty in the United States is not
as well. What destroyed fascism as an idea was the inherent product of liberalism, but is rath
not universal moral revulsion against it, since er the "legacy of slavery and racism" which
plenty of people were willing to endorse the persisted long after the formal abolition of
idea as long as it seemed the wave of the fu slavery.
ture, but its lack of success. After the war, it As a result of the receding of the class
seemed to most people that German fascism issue, the appeal of communism in the devel
as well as its other European and Asian vari oped Western world, it is safe to say, is lower
ants were bound to self-destruct. There was
no material reason why new fascist move "I am not using the term "fascism" here in its most
ments could not have sprung up again after precise sense, fully aware of the frequent mis
the war in other locales, but for the fact that use of this term to denounce anyone to the
expansionist ultranationalism, with its prom right of the user. "Fascism" here denotes any
ise of unending conflict leading to disastrous organized ultra-nationalist movement with
military defeat, had completely lost its appeal. universalistic pretensions—not universalistic
The ruins of the Reich chancellory as well as with regard to its nationalism, of course, since
the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and the latter is exclusive by definition, but with
Nagasaki killed this ideology on the level of regard to the movement's belief in its right to
consciousness as well as materially, and all of rule other people. Hence Imperial Japan
the proto-fascist movements spawned by the would qualify as fascist while former strong
German and Japanese examples like the Pe man Stoessner's Paraguay or Pinochet's Chile
ronist movement in Argentina or Subhas would not. Obviously fascist ideologies cannot
Chandra Bose's Indian National Army with be universalistic in the sense of Marxism or
ered after the war. liberalism, but the structure of the doctrine
The ideological challenge mounted by the can be transferred from country to country.

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today than any time since the end of the First planted to Japan were adapted and trans
World War. This can be measured in any formed by the Japanese in such a way as to
number of ways: in the declining membership be scarcely recognizable.12 Many Americans
and electoral pull of the major European com are now aware that Japanese industrial or
munist parties, and their overtly revisionist ganization is very different from that pre
programs; in the corresponding electoral suc vailing in the United States or Europe, and
cess of conservative parties from Britain and it is questionable what relationship the fac
Germany to the United States and Japan, tional maneuvering that takes place with the
which are unabashedly pro-market and anti governing Liberal Democratic Party bears to
statist; and in an intellectual climate whose democracy. Nonetheless, the very fact that the
most "advanced" members no longer believe essential elements of economic and political
that bourgeois society is something that ul liberalism have been so successfully grafted
timately needs to be overcome. This is not to onto uniquely Japanese traditions and insti
say that the opinions of progressive intellec tutions guarantees their survival in the long
tuals in Western countries are not deeply run. More important is the contribution that
pathological in any number of ways. But those Japan has made in turn to world history by
who believe that the future must inevitably following in the footsteps of the United States
be socialist tend to be very old, or very mar to create a truly universal consumer culture
ginal to the real political discourse of their that has become both a symbol and an un
societies. derpinning of the universal homogenous
state. V.S. Naipaul travelling in Khomeini's

O'^NEternative
MAY argue that the socialist al
was never terribly plau
Iran shortly after the revolution noted the
omnipresent signs advertising the products of
sible for the North Atlantic world, and was Sony, Hitachi, and JVC, whose appeal re
sustained for the last several decades primar mained virtually irresistible and gave the lie
ily by its success outside of this region. But to the regime's pretensions of restoring a state
it is precisely in the non-European world that based on the rule of the Shariah. Desire for
one is most struck by the occurrence of major access to the consumer culture, created in
ideological transformations. Surely the most large measure by Japan, has played a crucial
remarkable changes have occurred in Asia. role in fostering the spread of economic lib
Due to the strength and adaptability of the eralism throughout Asia, and hence in pro
indigenous cultures there, Asia became a bat moting political liberalism as well.
tleground for a variety of imported Western The economic success of the other newly
ideologies early in this century. Liberalism in industrializing countries (NlCs) in Asia fol
Asia was a very weak reed in the period after lowing on the example of Japan is by now a
World War I; it is easy today to forget how familiar story. What is important from a He
gloomy Asia's political future looked as re gelian standpoint is that political liberalism
cently as ten or fifteen years ago. It is easy to has been following economic liberalism, more
forget as well how momentous the outcome slowly than many had hoped but with seem
of Asian ideological struggles seemed for ing inevitability. Here again we see the vie
world political development as a whole.
The first Asian alternative to liberalism 1JI use the example of Japan with some caution,
to be decisively defeated was the fascist one since Kojève late in his life came to conclude
represented by Imperial Japan. Japanese fas that Japan, with its culture based on purely
cism (like its German version) was defeated formal arts, proved that the universal homog
by the force of American arms in the Pacific enous state was not victorious and that history
war, and liberal democracy was imposed on had perhaps not ended. See the long note at
Japan by a victorious United States. Western the end of the second edition of Introduction à
capitalism and political liberalism when trans la Lecture de Hegel, 462-3.

10 The National Interest—Summer 1989 .

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tory of the idea of the universal homogenous scribe the dynamism, initiative, and openness
state. South Korea had developed into a mod- evident in China since the reform began,
ern, urbanized society with an increasingly China could not now be described in any
large and well-educated middle class that way as a liberal democracy. At present, no
could not possibly be isolated from the larger more than 20 percent of its economy has been
democratic trends around them. Under these marketized, and most importantly it con tin
circumstances it seemed intolerable to a large ues to be ruled by a self-appointed Communist
part of this population that it should be ruled party which has given no hint of wanting to
by an anachronistic military regime while Ja- devolve power. Deng has made none of Gor
pan, only a decade or so ahead in economic bachev's promises regarding democratization
terms, had parliamentary institutions for over of the political system and there is no Chinese
forty years. Even the former socialist regime equivalent of glasnost. The Chinese leadership
in Burma, which for so many decades existed has in fact been much more circumspect in
in dismal isolation from the larger trends criticizing Mao and Maoism than Gorbachev
dominating Asia, was buffeted in the past year with respect to Brezhnev and Stalin, and the
by pressures to liberalize both its economy regime continues to pay lip service to Marx
and political system. It is said that unhappi- ism-Leninism as its ideological underpinning,
ness with strongman Ne Win began when a But anyone familiar with the outlook and be
senior Burmese officer went to Singapore for havior of the new technocratic elite now gov
medical treatment and broke down crying erning China knows that Marxism and ideo
when he saw how far socialist Burma had logical principle have become virtually
been left behind by its ASEAN neighbors. irrelevant as guides to policy, and that bour
geois consumerism has a real meaning in that
country for the first time since the revolution.

BUT THE power

would seemofmuch
the liberal idea The the
less impressive various slowdowns
campaigns in the
against pace of
"spiritual reform,
pollution"
if it had not infected the largest and oldest and crackdowns on political dissent are more
culture in Asia, China. The simple existence properly seen as tactical adjustments made in
of communist China created an alternative the process of managing what is an extraor
pole of ideological attraction, and as such con- dinarily difficult political transition. By duck
stituted a threat to liberalism. But the past ing the question of political reform while put
fifteen years have seen an almost total dis- ting the economy on a new footing, Deng has
crediting of Marxism-Leninism as an econom- managed to avoid the breakdown of authority
ic system. Beginning with the famous third that has accompanied Gorbachev's perestroïka.
plenum of the Tenth Central Committee in Yet the pull of the liberal idea continues to
1978, the Chinese Communist party set about be very strong as economic power devolves
decollectivizing agriculture for the 800 mil- and the economy becomes more open to the
lion Chinese who still lived in the country- outside world. There are currently over
side. The role of the state in agriculture was 20,000 Chinese students studying in the U.S.
reduced to that of a tax collector, while pro- and other Western countries, almost all of
duction of consumer goods was sharply in- them the children of the Chinese elite. It is
creased in order to give peasants a taste of the hard to believe that when they return home
universal homogenous state and thereby an to run the country they will be content for
incentive to work. The reform doubled China to be the only country in Asia unaf
Chinese grain output in only five years, and fected by the larger democratizing trend. The
in the process created for Deng Xiao-ping a student demonstrations in Beijing that broke
solid political base from which he was able to out first in December 1986 and recurred re
extend the reform to other parts of the econ- cently on the occasion of Hu Yao-bang's death
omy. Economic statistics do not begin to de- were only the beginning of what will inev

The End of History? 11

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itably be mounting pressure for change in the that virtually nobody in that country truly
political system as well. believed in Marxism-Leninism any longer,
What is important about China from the and that this was nowhere more true than in
standpoint of world history is not the present the Soviet elite, which continued to mouth
state of the reform or even its future pros- Marxist slogans out of sheer cynicism. The
pects. The central issue is the fact that the corruption and decadence of the late Brezh
People's Republic of China can no longer act nev-era Soviet state seemed to matter little,
as a beacon for illiberal forces around the however, for as long as the state itself refused
world, whether they be guerrillas in some to throw into question any of the fundamental
Asian jungle or middle class students in Paris. principles underlying Soviet society, the sys
Maoism, rather than being the pattern for tern was capable of functioning adequately out
Asia's future, became an anachronism, and it of sheer inertia and could even muster some
was the mainland Chinese who in fact were dynamism in the realm of foreign and defense
decisively influenced by the prosperity and policy. Marxism-Leninism was like a magical
dynamism of their overseas co-ethnics—the incantation which, however absurd and de
ironic ultimate victory of Taiwan. void of meaning, was the only common basis
Important as these changes in China have on which the elite could agree to rule Soviet
been, however, it is developments in the So- society,
viet Union—the original "homeland of the
world proletariat"—that have put the final TT7HAT HAS happened in the four
nail in the coffin of the Marxist-Leninist al- V V years since Gorbachev's coming
ternative to liberal democracy. It should be to power is a revolutionary assault on the most
clear that in terms of formal institutions, not fundamental institutions and principles of
much has changed in the four years since Gor- Stalinism, and their replacement by other
bachev has come to power: free markets and principles which do not amount to liberalism
the cooperative movement represent only a per se but whose only connecting thread is
small part of the Soviet economy, which re- liberalism. This is most evident in the eco
mains centrally planned; the political system nomic sphere, where the reform economists
is still dominated by the Communist party, around Gorbachev have become steadily more
which has only begun to democratize inter- radical in their support for free markets, to
nally and to share power with other groups; the point where some like Nikolai Shmelev
the regime continues to assert that it is seeking do not mind being compared in public to Mil
only to modernize socialism and that its ideo- ton Friedman. There is a virtual consensus
logical basis remains Marxism-Leninism; and, among the currently dominant school of So
finally, Gorbachev faces a potentially pow- viet economists now that central planning and
erful conservative opposition that could undo the command system of allocation are the root
many of the changes that have taken place to cause of economic inefficiency, and that if the
date. Moreover, it is hard to be too sanguine Soviet system is ever to heal itself, it must
about the chances for success of Gorbachev's permit free and decentralized decision-mak
proposed reforms, either in the sphere of eco- ing with respect to investment, labor, and
nomics or politics. But my purpose here is not prices. After a couple of initial years of ideo
to analyze events in the short-term, or to make logical confusion, these principles have finally
predictions for policy purposes, but to look at been incorporated into policy with the pro
underlying trends in the sphere of ideology mulgation of new laws on enterprise auton
and consciousness. And in that respect, it is omy, cooperatives, and finally in 1988 on lease
clear that an astounding transformation has arrangements and family farming. There are,
occurred. of course, a number of fatal flaws in the cur
Emigres from the Soviet Union have been rent implementation of th
reporting for at least the last generation now tably the absence of a t

12 The National Interest—Summer 1989

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reform. But the problem is no longer a con able. The essence of Lenin's democratic cen
ceptual one: Gorbachev and his lieutenants tralism was centralism, not democracy; that
seem to understand the economic logic of mar is, the absolutely rigid, monolithic, and dis
ketization well enough, but like the leaders of ciplined dictatorship of a hierarchically or
a Third World country facing the IMF, are ganized vanguard Communist party, speaking
afraid of the social consequences of ending in the name of the demos. All of Lenin's vicious
consumer subsidies and other forms of de polemics against Karl Kautsky, Rosa Lux
pendence on the state sector. emburg, and various other Menshevik and So
In the political sphere, the proposedcial Democratic rivals, not to mention his con
changes to the Soviet constitution, legal systempt for "bourgeois legality" and freedoms,
tem, and party rules amount to much less thancentered around his profound conviction that
the establishment of a liberal state. Gorbachev a revolution could not be successfully made
has spoken of democratization primarily inby a democratically run organization.
the sphere of internal party affairs, and has Gorbachev's claim that he is seeking to
shown little intention of ending the Com return to the true Lenin is perfectly easy to
munist party's monopoly of power; indeed,understand: having fostered a thorough de
the political reform seeks to legitimize andnunciation of Stalinism and Brezhnevism as
therefore strengthen the CPSU's rule." Nonethe root of the USSR's present predicament,
theless, the general principles underlying he needs some point in Soviet history on
many of the reforms—that the "people"which to anchor the legitimacy of the CPSU's
should be truly responsible for their own afcontinued rule. But Gorbachev's tactical re
fairs, that higher political bodies should bequirements should not blind us to the fact that
answerable to lower ones, and not vice versa, the democratizing and decentralizing princi
that the rule of law should prevail over arples which he has enunciated in both the eco
bitrary police actions, with separation of pow nomic and political spheres are highly sub
ers and an independent judiciary, that thereversive of some of the most fundamental
should be legal protection for property rights, precepts of both Marxism and Leninism. In
the need for open discussion of public issuesdeed, if the bulk of the present economic re
and the right of public dissent, the empowform proposals were put into effect, it is hard
ering of the Soviets as a forum in which the to know how the Soviet economy would be
whole Soviet people can participate, and of amore socialist than those of other Western
political culture that is more tolerant and countries with large public sectors.
pluralistic—come from a source fundamen The Soviet Union could in no way be
tally alien to the USSR's Marxist-Leninist tra described as a liberal or democratic country
dition, even if they are incompletely articu now, nor do I think that it is terribly likely
lated and poorly implemented in practice. that perestroika will succeed such that the label
Gorbachev's repeated assertions that hewill be thinkable any time in the near future.
is doing no more than trying to restore the But at the end of history it is not necessary
original meaning of Leninism are themselves that all societies become successful liberal so

a kind of Orwellian doublespeak. Gorbachevcieties, merely that they end their ideological
and his allies have consistently maintainedpretensions of representing different and
that intraparty democracy was somehow the higher forms of human society. And in this
essence of Leninism, and that the various lib
respect I believe that something very impor
eral practices of open debate, secret ballottant has happened in the Soviet Union in the
elections, and rule of law were all part of the past few years: the criticisms of the Soviet
Leninist heritage, corrupted only later by Sta
lin. While almost anyone would look good "This is not true in Poland and Hungary, however,
compared to Stalin, drawing so sharp a line whose Communist parties have taken moves
between Lenin and his successor is question toward true power-sharing and pluralism.

The End of History ? 13

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system sanctioned by Gorbachev have been of the good life, could not provide even the
so thorough and devastating that there is very minimal preconditions of peace and stability.
little chance of going back to either Stalinism In the contemporary world only Islam has
or Brezhnevism in any simple way. Gorbach offered a theocratic state as a political alter
ev has finally permitted people to say what native to both liberalism and communism.
they had privately understood for many years, But the doctrine has little appeal for non-Mus
namely, that the magical incantations of lims, and it is hard to believe that the move
Marxism-Leninism were nonsense, that So ment will take on any universal significance.
viet socialism was not superior to the West in Other less organized religious impulses have
any respect but was in fact a monumental been successfully satisfied within the sphere
failure. The conservative opposition in the of personal life that is permitted in liberal
USSR, consisting both of simple workers societies.
afraid of unemployment and inflation and of The other major "contradiction" poten
party officials fearful of losing their jobs and tially unresolvable by liberalism is the one
privileges, is outspoken and may be strong posed by nationalism and other forms of racial
enough to force Gorbachev's ouster in the and ethnic consciousness. It is certainly true
next few years. But what both groups desire that a very large degree of conflict since the
is tradition, order, and authority; they mani Battle of Jena has had its roots in nationalism.
fest no deep commitment to Marxism-Len Two cataclysmic world wars in this century
inism, except insofar as they have invested have been spawned by the nationalism of the
much of their own lives in it.14 For authority developed world in various guises, and if those
to be restored in the Soviet Union after Gor passions have been muted to a certain extent
bachev's demolition work, it must be on the in postwar Europe, they are still extremely
basis of some new and vigorous ideology powerful in the Third World. Nationalism
which has not yet appeared on the horizon. has been a threat to liberalism historically in
Germany, and continues to be one in isolated
"F WE ADMIT for the moment that parts of "post-historical" Europe like North
I1 the fascist and communist chal ern Ireland.
lenges to liberalism are dead, are there any But it is not clear that nationalism rep
other ideological competitors left? Or putresents
an an irreconcilable contradiction in the
other way, are there contradictions in liberal
heart of liberalism. In the first place, nation
society beyond that of class that are notalism
re is not one single phenomenon but sev
solvable? Two possibilities suggest them eral, ranging from mild cultural nostalgia to
selves, those of religion and nationalism. the highly organized and elaborately articu
The rise of religious fundamentalism lated
in doctrine of National Socialism. Only
recent years within the Christian, Jewish, systematic
and nationalisms of the latter sort can
qualify as a formal ideology on the level of
Muslim traditions has been widely noted. One
is inclined to say that the revival of religion
liberalism or communism. The vast majority
in some way attests to a broad unhappiness
with the impersonality and spiritual vacuity
'"This is particularly true of the leading Soviet con
of liberal consumerist societies. Yet while the servative, former Second Secretary Yegor Li
emptiness at the core of liberalism is most gachev, who has publicly recognized many of
certainly a defect in the ideology—indeed, a the deep defects of the Brezhnev period.
flaw that one does not need the perspective
"I am thinking particularly of Rousseau and the
of religion to recognize's—it is not at all clear Western philosophical tradition that flows
that it is remediable through politics. Modern from him that was highly critical of Lockean
liberalism itself was historically a conse or Hobbesian liberalism, though one could
quence of the weakness of religiously-based criticize liberalism from the standpoint of clas
societies which, failing to agree on the nature sical political philosophy as well.

14 The National Interest—Summer 1989 .

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of the world's nationalist movements do not pect which, if not yet here, the last few years
have a political program beyond the negative have made a real possibility. How will the
desire of independence from some other group overall characteristics of a de-ideologized
or people, and do not offer anything like a world differ from those of the one with which
comprehensive agenda for socio-economic or we are familiar at such a hypothetical junc
ganization. As such, they are compatible with ture?
doctrines and ideologies that do offer such The most common answer is—not very
agendas. While they may constitute a source much. For there is a very widespread belief
of conflict for liberal societies, this conflict among many observers of international rela
does not arise from liberalism itself so much tions that underneath the skin of ideology is
as from the fact that the liberalism in question a hard core of great power national interest
is incomplete. Certainly a great deal of the that guarantees a fairly high level of compe
world's ethnic and nationalist tension can be tition and conflict between nations. Indeed,
explained in terms of peoples who are forced according to one academically popular school
to live in unrepresentative political systems of international relations theory, conflict in
that they have not chosen. heres in the international system as such, and
While it is impossible to rule out the sud to understand the prospects for conflict one
den appearance of new ideologies or previ must look at the shape of the system—for ex
ously unrecognized contradictions in liberal ample, whether it is bipolar or multipolar—
societies, then, the present world seems to rather than at the specific character of the
confirm that the fundamental principles of nations and regimes that constitute it. This
socio-political organization have not advanced school in effect applies a Hobbesian view of
terribly far since 1806. Many of the wars and politics to international relations, and assumes
revolutions fought since that time have been that aggression and insecurity are universal
undertaken in the name of ideologies which characteristics of human societies rather than
claimed to be more advanced than liberalism, the product of specific historical circum
but whose pretensions were ultimately un stances.

masked by history. In the meantime, they Believers in this line of thought take the
have helped to spread the universal homoge relations that existed between the participants
nous state to the point where it could have a in the classical nineteenth century European
significant effect on the overall character of balance of power as a model for what a de
international relations. ideologized contemporary world would look
like. Charles Krauthammer, for example, re
cently explained that if as a result of Gor
IV bachev's reforms the USSR is shorn of Marx
ist-Leninist ideology, its behavior will revert
WHAT end
AREofthe implications
history of the to that of nineteenth century imperial Rus
for international
relations? Clearly, the vast bulk of the Third sia.16 While he finds this more reassuring than
World remains very much mired in history,the threat posed by a communist Russia, he
and will be a terrain of conflict for many years implies that there will still be a substantial
to come. But let us focus for the time beingdegree of competition and conflict in the in
on the larger and more developed states of the ternational system, just as there was say be
world who after all account for the greatertween Russia and Britain or Wilhelmine Ger
part of world politics. Russia and China are many in the last century. This is, of course,
not likely to join the developed nations of the a convenient point of view for people who
West as liberal societies any time in the forewant to admit that something major is chang
seeable future, but suppose for a moment that
Marxism-Leninism ceases to be a factor driv "See his article, "Beyond the Cold War," New Re
ing the foreign policies of these states—a pros public, December 19, 1988.

The End of History? IS

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ing in the Soviet Union, but do not want to in retrospect it seems that Hitler represented
accept responsibility for recommending the a diseased bypath in the general course of
radical policy redirection implicit in such a European development, and since his fiery de
view. But is it true? feat, the legitimacy of any kind of territorial
In fact, the notion that ideology is a su aggrandizement has been thoroughly discred
perstructure imposed on a substratum of per ited.17 Since the Second World War, European
manent great power interest is a highly ques nationalism has been defanged and shorn of
tionable proposition. For the way in which any real relevance to foreign policy, with the
any state defines its national interest is not consequence that the nineteenth-century
universal but rests on some kind of prior ideo model of great power behavior has become a
logical basis, just as we saw that economic serious anachronism. The most extreme form
behavior is determined by a prior state of con of nationalism that any Western European
sciousness. In this century, states have adopt state has mustered since 1945 has been Gaul
ed highly articulated doctrines with explicit lism, whose self-assertion has been confined
foreign policy agendas legitimizing expan largely to the realm of nuisance politics and
sionism, like Marxism-Leninism or National culture. International life for the part of the
Socialism. world that has reached the end of history is
far more preoccupied with economics than

T'TIEitive
EXPANSIONIST and compet
behavior of nineteenth-cen
with politics or strategy.
The developed states of the West do main
tain defense establishments and in the post
tury European states rested on no less ideal a
basis; it just so happened that the ideology war period have competed vigorously for in
driving it was less explicit than the doctrines fluence to meet a worldwide communist
of the twentieth century. For one thing, most threat. This behavior has been driven, how
"liberal" European societies were illiberal in ever, by an external threat from states that
sofar as they believed in the legitimacy of im possess overtly expansionist ideologies, and
perialism, that is, the right of one nation to would not exist in their absence. To take the
rule over other nations without regard for the "neo-realist" theory seriously, one would have
wishes of the ruled. The justifications for im to believe that "natural" competitive behavior
perialism varied from nation to nation, from would reassert itself among the OECD states
a crude belief in the legitimacy of force, par were Russia and China to disappear from the
ticularly when applied to non-Europeans, to face of the earth. That is, West Germany and
the White Man's Burden and Europe's Chris France would arm themselves against each
tianizing mission, to the desire to give people other as they did in the 1930s, Australia and
of color access to the culture of Rabelais and New Zealand would send military advisers to
Molière. But whatever the particular ideolog block each others' advances in Africa, and the
ical basis, every "developed" country believed U.S.-Canadian border would become fortified.
in the acceptability of higher civilizations rul Such a prospect is, of course, ludicrous: minus
ing lower ones—including, incidentally, the Marxist-Leninist ideology, we are far more
United States with regard to the Philippines. likely to see the "Common Marketization" of
This led to a drive for pure territorial ag world politics than the disintegration of the
grandizement in the latter half of the century EEC into nineteenth-century competitiveness.
and played no small role in causing the Great
War.
"It took European colonial powers like France sev
The radical and deformed outgrowth of eral years after the war to admit the illegiti
nineteenth-century imperialism was German macy of their empires, but decolonialization
fascism, an ideology which justified German was an inevitable consequence of the Allied
y's right not only to rule over non-European victory which had been based on the promise
peoples, but over all non-German ones. But of a restoration of democratic freedoms.

là Tbe National Interest—Summer 1989 .

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Indeed, as our experience in dealing with Eu which there are no ideological grounds for
rope on matters such as terrorism or Libya major conflict between nations, and in which,
prove, they are much further gone than we consequently, the use of military force be
down the road that denies the legitimacy of comes less legitimate. As Foreign Minister
the use of force in international politics, even Shevardnadze put it in mid-1988:
in self-defense.
The struggle between two opposing systems is
The automatic assumption that Russia no longer a determining tendency of the present
shorn of its expansionist communist ideology day era. At the modern stage, the ability to build
should pick up where the czars left off just up material wealth at an accelerated rate on the
prior to the Bolshevik Revolution is therefore basis of front-ranking science and high-level tech
a curious one. It assumes that the evolution niques and technology, and to distribute it fairly,
of human consciousness has stood still in the and through joint efforts to restore and protect
meantime, and that the Soviets, while picking the resources necessary for mankind's survival
up currently fashionable ideas in the realm of acquires decisive importance.18

economics, will return to foreign policy views The post-historical consciousness repre
a century out of date in the rest of Europe. sented by "new thinking" is only one possible
This is certainly not what happened to China future for the Soviet Union, however. There
after it began its reform process. Chinese com has always been a very strong current of great
petitiveness and expansionism on the world Russian chauvinism in the Soviet Union,
scene have virtually disappeared: Beijing no which has found freer expression since the
longer sponsors Maoist insurgencies or tries advent of glasnost. It may be possible to return
to cultivate influence in distant African coun to traditional Marxism-Leninism for a while
tries as it did in the 1960s. This is not to say as a simple rallying point for those who want
that there are not troublesome aspects to con to restore the authority that Gorbachev has
temporary Chinese foreign policy, such as the dissipated. But as in Poland, Marxism-Len
reckless sale of ballistic missile technology in inism is dead as a mobilizing ideology: under
the Middle East; and the PRC continues to its banner people cannot be made to work
manifest traditional great power behavior in harder, and its adherents have lost confidence
its sponsorship of the Khmer Rouge against in themselves. Unlike the propagators of tra
Vietnam. But the former is explained by com ditional Marxism-Leninism, however, ultra
mercial motives and the latter is a vestige ofnationalists in the USSR believe in their Sla
earlier ideologically-based rivalries. The new vophile cause passionately, and one gets the
China far more resembles Gaullist France sense that the fascist alternative is not one that
than pre-World War I Germany. has played itself out entirely there.
The real question for the future, however, The Soviet Union, then, is at a fork in
is the degree to which Soviet elites have as the road: it can start down the path that was
similated the consciousness of the universal
staked out by Western Europe forty-five years
homogenous state that is post-Hitler Europe. ago, a path that most of Asia has followed, or
From their writings and from my own per it can realize its own uniqueness and remain
sonal contacts with them, there is no question stuck in history. The choice it makes will be
in my mind that the liberal Soviet intelli highly important for us, given the Soviet
gentsia rallying around Gorbachev has ar
rived at the end-of-history view in a remark 8Vestnik Ministerstva Inostrannikb Del SSSR no. 15

ably short time, due in no small measure to (August 1988), 27-46. "New thinking" does of
the contacts they have had since the Brezhnev course serve a propagandistic purpose in per
era with the larger European civilization suading Western audiences of Soviet good in
around them. "New political thinking," the tentions. But the fact that it is good propa
general rubric for their views, describes a ganda does not mean that its formulators do
world dominated by economic concerns, in not take many of its ideas seriously.

The End of History? 17

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Union's size and military strength, for that Catholics and Walloons, Armenians and Azer
power will continue to preoccupy us and slow is, will continue to have their unresolved
our realization that we have already emerged grievances. This implies that terrorism and
on the other side of history. wars of national liberation will continue to
be an important item on the international
agenda. But large-scale conflict must involve
large states still caught in the grip of history,

THE PASSING offrom

ism first Marxism-Lenin- and the
China and then theyscene,
are what appear to be passing from
from the Soviet Union will mean its death as The end of history will be a very sad time,
a living ideology of world historical signifi- The struggle for recognition, the willingness
cance. For while there may be some isolated to risk one's life for a purely abstract goal, the
true believers left in places like Managua, worldwide ideological struggle that called
Pyongyang, or Cambridge, Massachusetts, the forth daring, courage, imagination, and ide
fact that there is not a single large state in alism, will be replaced by economic calcula
which it is a going concern undermines com- tion, the endless solving of technical prob
pletely its pretensions to being in the van- lems, environmental concerns, and the
guard of human history. And the death of this satisfaction of sophisticated consumer de
ideology means the growing "Common Mar- mands. In the post-historical period there will
ketization" of international relations, and the be neither art nor philosophy, just the per
diminution of the likelihood of large-scale petual caretaking of the museum of human
conflict between states. history. I can feel in myself, and see in others
This does not by any means imply the around me, a powerful nostalgia for the time
end of international conflict per se. For the when history existed. Such nostalgia, in fact,
world at that point would be divided between will continue to fuel competition and conflict
a part that was historical and a part that was even in the post-historical world for some
post-historical. Conflict between states still in time to come. Even though I recognize its
history, and between those states and those at inevitability, I have the most ambivalent feel
the end of history, would still be possible. ings for the civilization that has been created
There would still be a high and perhaps rising in Europe since 1945, with its north Atlantic
level of ethnic and nationalist violence, since and Asian offshoots. Perhaps this very pros
those are impulses incompletely played out, pect of centuries of boredom at the end of
even in parts of the post-historical world. Pal- history will serve to get history started once
estinians and Kurds, Sikhs and Tamils, Irish again.

18 The National Interest—Summer 1989 .

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