6. If the probability of picking a winning horse in a race is 0.

2, and if X is the number of

winning picks out of 20 races, what is:
a. P[X=4]
b. P[X≤4]
c. E(X) and Var(X)
Penyelesaian :
p=0.2 q=0.8 n=20

f ( X=x )= 20 × 0.2x ×0.820− x

( )
x

P[ X =4 ]=( 20 ) × 0.2 ×0.8

4 16
a.
4
P[ X =4 ]=0.2182
4
b. P[ x ≤ 4 ]=∑ 20 ×0.2 × 0.8
x 20−x

x=0 X
( )
P [ x ≤ 4 ] =( 20 ) ×0.2 ×0.8 + ( 20 ) × 0.2 × 0.8 + ( 20 ) × 0.2 × 0.8 +( 20 ) ×0.2 ×0.8 + ( 20 ) × 0.2 ×0.8
0 20 1 19 2 18 3 17 4

0 1 2 3 4

P [ x ≤ 4 ] = 20 ×0.20 ×0.820 + 20 × 0.21 × 0.819 + 20 × 0.22 × 0.818 + 20 ×0.23 ×0.8 17+ 20 × 0.24 ×0.8
( )
0 1 ( ) 2( ) 3( ) 4 ( )
P [ x ≤ 4 ] =0.6296
c. E ( X ) =np
E ( X ) =20× 0.2
E ( X ) =4

Var ( X )=npq
Var ( X )=20 × 0.2× 0.8
Var ( X )=3.2
13. A man pays $1 a throw to try to win a $3 Kewpie doll. His probability of winning on each
throw is 0.1.
a. What is the probability that two throws will be required to win the doll?
b. What is the probability that x throws will be required to win the doll?
c. What is the probability that more than three throws will be required to win the doll?
d. What is the expected number of throws needed to win a doll?

Penyelesaian :

a. p=0.1 q=0.9
P ( X=2 )=g ( 2; 0.1 )
P ( X=2 )=0.9 ×0.1
P ( X=2 )=0.09
b. P ( X=x )= p × q x−1
P ( X=x )=0.1× 0.9x−1
1
P ( X=x )= ×0.9 x
9
c. P ( X >3 ) =1−P ( X ≤3 )
P ( X >3 ) =1−( P ( X=3 )+ P ( X=2 ) + P( X=1) )
P ( X >3 ) =1−( 0.1 ×0.9 ×0.9+ 0.1× 0.9+0.1 )
P ( X >3 ) =1−( 0.081+0.09+0.1 )
P ( X >3 ) =1−0.271
P ( X >3 ) =0.729
1
d. E ( X ) =
p
1
E ( X )=
0.1
E ( X ) =10
20. Suppose an ordinary six-sided die is rolled repeatedly, and the outcome –1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or
6—is noted on each roll.
a. What is the probability that the third 6 occurs on the seventh roll?
b. What is the probability that the number of rolls until the first 6 occurs is at most 10?
Penyelesaian :
a. k=3 x=7 p=1/6
P=b∗( x ; k , p)
1
P=b∗(7 ; 3 , )
6
1 3 5 4
P= 6 ( ) ( )
()
2 6 6
P=15 × 0.00223
P=0.0335
10
1
b. P ( X ≤10 )=∑ g(¿ x ; )¿
x=1 6
10 x
1 5
P ( X ≤10 )=∑ ×
x=1 6 6 ()
P ( X ≤10 )=0.8385
27. Let X ~ POI(µ).
a. Find the factorial moment generating function (FMGF) of X, Gx(t)
b. Use Gx(t) to find E(X)
c. Use Gx(t) to find E[X(X - 1)]

Penyelesaian :

a. Gx ( t )=E(t x )
∞
e−µ ( µ )x
x
Gx ( t )=∑ t
x=0 x!
∞
−μ( µt ) x
Gx ( t )=e ∑
x=0 x !

Gx ( t )=e−μ × e µt
Gx ( t )=e μ (t −1)

b. E ( X ) =G'x (1 )

E ( X ) =μ e μ(t −1) ¿t =1
E ( X ) =μ e0
E ( X ) =μ

c. E [ X ( X −1 ) ]=G'x' ( 1 )

E [ X ( X −1 ) ] =μ2 e μ(t −1 ) ¿t =1
E [ X ( X −1 ) ]=μ2
34. Suppose a value x is chosen “at random” in the interval [0, 10]. In other words, x is an
observed value of a random variable X ~ UNIF(0, 10). The value x divides the interval [0,
10] into two subintervals.
a. Find the CDF of length of the shorter subinterval
b. What is the probability that the ratio of lengths of sorter to the longer subinterval is
less than ¼?

Penyelesaian :

x
a. F ( x ) =
{
10
, 0< x <10
0 , x lainnya
b. Peluang ratio interval < 1:4
P=F ( 0< X <2 )+ F (8< X <10)
4
P=
10
2
P=
5
41. If X~GAM(1,2), find the mode of X.
Penyelesaian :

−x
1
f ( x )= α x α−1 e β

β Γ (α )

−x
1
f ( x )= 1 x1−1 e 2

2 Γ (1)

−x
1 2
f ( x )= e
2

Modus dari distribusi saat nilai x terhadap fungsi maksimum.

Cari titik ekstrem.

 Turunan pertama bernilai nol.

d
f ( x )=0
dt
−x
d 1
dt 2 ( )
e 2
=0

−x
−1 2
e =0
4
−x
2
e =0
x≈ ∞

−∞
1 2
f ( ∞) = e
2
f ( ∞ ) =0

 Ujung interval
0.35

0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

o X=0
−0
1 2
f ( 0 )= e
2
1
f ( 0 )=
2
o X=∞
1
Modus =
2
48. Suppose that X~PAR(θ,κ)
a. Derive the 100 × pth percentile of X
b. Find the median of X if θ=10 and κ=2

Penyelesaian :

−κ
x
a. F ( x ;θ ,κ )=1− 1+ ( ) θ
Persentil ke p
−κ
p x
100
=1− 1+ p
θ ( )
−κ
x p
( )
1+ p
θ
=1−
100
x p −1
1+ p = 1−
θ 100 ( ) κ

xp p −1

θ
= 1−(100 ) κ
−1

−1
p
x p=θ 1− [( ) −1]
100
κ

−κ
x
b. F ( x ;θ ,κ )=1−( 1+ )
θ
−2
x
F ( x ;10,2 ) =1−(1+ )
10
−2
1 x
2
=1− 1+ m
10 ( )
−2
1 x
2 (
= 1+ m
10 )
xm
√ 2=1+
10
xm
√ 2−1=
10
x m=10 √ 2−10
55. Assume the amount of light X (in lumens) produced by a certain type of light bulb is
normally distributed with mean µ=350 and variance σ 2=400.
a. Find P[325<X<363]
b. Find the value c such that the amount of light produced by 90% of light bulbs

Penyelesaian :

325−350
a. z 325 =
400
z 325 =−0.0625

363−350
z 363 =
400
z 363 =0.0325

P (−0.0625< Z< 0.0325 )=P ( Z <0.0325 ) −P(Z ←0.0625)

P (−0.0625< Z< 0.0325 )=0.5120−0.4880
P (−0.0625< Z< 0.0325 )=0.0240

b. P ( Z ≤ z )=0.9
z=1.29
c=z σ 2 + μ
c=1.29 × 400+350
c=866