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    Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

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    yousef
    1. The document describes Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), which uses a three-point estimate of activity durations to model project schedules probabilistically. 2. PERT calculates the expected duration of each activity using the optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates. It then calculates the critical path and variance to determine the probability of completing a project within a given time. 3. The example shows calculating the probability of completing a project within 24 time units as 76.12% and within 25.8 time units as 97.7% based on the activities' expected durations and variances.

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    Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

    Uploaded by

    yousef
    165 views12 pages
    1. The document describes Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), which uses a three-point estimate of activity durations to model project schedules probabilistically. 2. PERT calculates the expected duration of each activity using the optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates. It then calculates the critical path and variance to determine the probability of completing a project within a given time. 3. The example shows calculating the probability of completing a project within 24 time units as 76.12% and within 25.8 time units as 97.7% based on the activities' expected durations and variances.

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    PERT analysis

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    1. The document describes Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), which uses a three-point estimate of activity durations to model project schedules probabilistically. 2. PERT calculates the expected duration of each activity using the optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates. It then calculates the critical path and variance to determine the probability of completing a project within a given time. 3. The example shows calculating the probability of completing a project within 24 time units as 76.12% and within 25.8 time units as 97.7% based on the activities' expected durations and variances.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    165 views12 pages

    Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

    Uploaded by

    yousef
    1. The document describes Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), which uses a three-point estimate of activity durations to model project schedules probabilistically. 2. PERT calculates the expected duration of each activity using the optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates. It then calculates the critical path and variance to determine the probability of completing a project within a given time. 3. The example shows calculating the probability of completing a project within 24 time units as 76.12% and within 25.8 time units as 97.7% based on the activities' expected durations and variances.

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    Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) 1

    • Assumes an activity’s duration Program Evaluation Review


    Technique (PERT)
    follows a probability distribution
    not a single value probabilistic
    (Stochastic)
    • Accounts for uncertainty in activity
    duration estimates
    • Provides estimates of project
    duration probabilities
    • Best used for highly uncertain
    projects
     New product development
     Unique or first-time projects
     Research and development
    2
    PERT (3-points estimation)
    • These 3 points are Program Evaluation Review
    Technique (PERT)
    Optimistic Time (a) (extremely well)
    Pessimistic Time (b) (extremely well)
    Most likely Time (m) (probable time)
    • Uses Beta Distribution Assumption or Triangle
    distribution
    3

    PERT (3-points estimation)


    . hat is the probability of completing the following
    project within 12 days?
    Activity Predecessor a m b
    A NIL 2 3 10
    B A 1 2.5 7
    C A 4 5 6
    D B,C 0.5 1.5 5.5
    4

    PERT (3-points estimation) Calculations


    Steps to find the probability
    Get Te for each activity: Te = (a + 4m + b) / 6
    Get CP for project by using Te (explained at next slide)
    Get Sigma for each critical activity : sactivity = (b activity –a activity) / 6
    Get the Variance for each critical Activity Vactivity = s2 = ((b - a) / 6) 2
    Get The Summation of Vs (critical activities): Summation of Vs =Vtactivity
    Get spath (standard Deviation of the CP) : = spath = (summation) ½
    Get The Z value Z = (Expected Completion Date – CP) /
    spath
    Get the probability form the table (normal distribution table)
    PERT (3-points estimation) 5

      
    Activity Predecessor a m b Te s V=(s) 2
    A NIL 2 3 10 4 8/6 1.78
    B A 1 2.5 7 3 1 1.00
    C A 4 5 6 5 2/6 0.11
    D B,C 0.5 1.5 5.5 2 5/6 0.69
    11 2.58
     
     CP= A + C + D = 11 d (of Tes)
    sCP = Square Root of (Summation of Variance of Critical paths) = 2.58
    sCP = (2.58) ½
    = 1.6
    Z = (Expected Completion Date – CP) / sCP

    Z = (12 – 11) / 1.6
    =0.622171

    From a Z-table for standard normal distributions


    Probability of completion = 71.3125

    Z most of the time equals one of the 1 sigma, 2 sigma, 3 sigma, …, 6 sigma
    6
    PERT (3-points estimation)
    Step  to find Critical path of this project is:
    PERT (3-points estimation) 7

    Activity Predecessor a m b Te s V=(s) 2


    A NIL 2 3 10 4 8/6 1.78
    B A 1 2.5 7 3 1 1.00
    C A 4 5 6 5 2/6 0.11
    D B,C 0.5 1.5 5.5 2 5/6 0.69
    11 2.58

    CP= A + C + D = 11 d (of Tes)


    sCP = Square Root of (Summation of Variance of Critical paths) = 2.58
    sCP = (2.58) ½
    = 1.6
    Z = (Expected Completion Date – CP) / sCP

    Z = (12 – 11) / 1.6


    =0.622171

    From a Z-table for standard normal distributions


    Probability of completion = 71.3125

    Z most of the time equals one of the 1 sigma, 2 sigma, 3 sigma, …, 6 sigma
    Sigma and Probability Distribution 8

    1. 1 Sigma (1σ) = 11  1.6 = 9.4 - 12.6 (probability of (68.2%) to be within this estimates)
    2. 2 Sigma (2σ) = 11  3.2 = 7.8 - 14.2 (probability of (95.4%) to be within this estimates)
    3. 3 Sigma (3σ) = 11  4.8 = 6.2 - 15.8 (probability of (99.7%) to be within this estimates)
    4. 4 Sigma (4σ) = 11  6.4 = 4.6 - 17.4 (probability of (99.9%) to be within this estimates)

    Te

    68.2%

    95.4%

    99.7%

    99.9%
    σ
    Mean
    -4 -3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3 +4

    Probability Distribution Curve


    9

    Sigma and Probability Distribution

    Probability Distribution Curve


    10
    PERT
    Act. Pred. O M P
    A -- 4 6 8

    B -- 1 4.5 5

    C A 3 3 3

    D A 4 5 6

    E A 0.5 1 1.5

    F B,C 3 4 5

    G B,C 1 1.5 5

    H E,F 5 6 7

    I E,F 2 5 8

    J D,H 2.5 2.75 4.5

    K G,I 3 5 7

    1. What is the probability the project will be completed within (24) time unit?
    2. What is the probability the project will be completed within (25.8) time
    unit?
    11
    PERT
    Activity Expected Time Variance
    A 6 4/9
    B 4 4/9
    C 3 0
    D 5 1/9
    E 1 1/36
    F 4 1/9
    G 2 4/9
    H 6 1/9
    I 5 1
    J 3 1/9
    K 5 4/9

    ACFIK 23 2
    12

    PERT
    1. Case of 24
    Vpath = VA + VC + VF + VI + VK
    = 4/9 + 0 + 1/9 + 9/9+ 4/9
    =2
    spath = (2)1/2 = 1.414
    Z = (X- CP) / spath

    Z= (24 - 23)/ spath = (24-23)/1.414 = .71

    From the Standard Normal Distribution table:


    P = .7612

    2. Case of 25.8
    Probability the project will be completed within (25.8) time unit
    Means 2s, so Probability = 0.5 + 95.4% / 2 = 0.977

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