Ideas20 Ashish Kila
Ideas20 Ashish Kila
Ideas20 Ashish Kila
Delhi Chapter
Investment Houses
Associations/forums
Acknowledgements
MR. R.A.KILA
CHAIRMAN, PERFECT GROUP
&
PERFECT RESEARCH TEAM
Blessed to have got Vicarious Learning's
from my Role Models …
Update on Thomas Cook Business discussed
at Best Ideas 2018
Thomas Cook shareholders in a spinoff transaction have got Quess Corp shares
recently.
We are not happy at all with the Quess management’s corporate governance and
capital allocation standards.
We may change our views if we see substantial progress on the above concerns
Disclaimer: Discussion on business model for educational purpose only and not a recommendation.
Source: Ratestar.in, Company
• Role of Management
2013
• 4C’s of Investing
2014
• Capacity to Suffer
2016
• Sidecar Investing
2017
Ranking of
Life Cycle of a
Business Model
business
Framework
What is Capital
Today’s Idea
Allocation?
Track record of
companies Ranking
allocating
Let’s take a Life Cycle of a Typical Business
Generating wealth on the way
Starts
Starts Scaling Diversifying
it up
Starts hiring
Professionals
Starts a
business Management Bandwidth starts getting stretched
Mr. X Comes • The group can’t scale up more geographically or/&
with an idea is unable to diversify.
• Unable to reinvest cash flows and growth slows.
Notable Exception
Berkshire Hathaway
Problem – Few co’s can keep growing
In the year 2016,
Down from 31 to 48
In today’s scenario,
Source: Wikipedia
Roadmap
Ranking of
Life Cycle of a Business Model
business Framework
What is Capital
Today’s Idea
Allocation?
Track record of
companies Ranking
allocating
Capital Allocation
How the management should think about
Capital Allocation?
Today’s
Focus
Area
Some interesting insights
• A study reveled that
mergers and acquisitions
(M&A) and capital
expenditures are the largest
uses of capital over time.
(1980-2013)
Source: http://bit.ly/hbrorg1
Sidecar Investing
Roadmap
Ranking of
Life Cycle of a
Business Model
business
Framework
What is Capital
Today’s Idea
Allocation?
Track record of
companies Ranking
allocating
Instances of unsuccessful Inorganic Growth
Tata - Corus – Auction driven
In 2007, Tata Steel finally bought Corus in a $12 billion deal,
acquisition size was four times larger than Tata steel’s size.
Tata Steel paid 608 pence a share, a premium of 34% to the original
offer price to ward off a challenge from Brazilian miner and steelmaker
CSN.
As stated by Tata, the initial motive behind the completion of the deal
was not the revenue size of Corus, but rather its market value.
Source: http://bit.ly/tatamergerrediff
Instances of successful Inorganic
Growth
Betting on the ‘Jockey’- “Warren Buffett”
Buffett created a hands-off culture that encourages entrepreneurs to sell
their private companies to Berkshire.
Management takeaways from Warren Buffett's 50 years at Berkshire
Hathaway:-
Leave your managers alone — Managers at the 60-plus business units owned by
Berkshire have a lot of autonomy, and that encourages them to stick around. They
only have 25 employees at
their HQ.
Don't follow the Herd— Buffett ignores street expectations of short term
quarterly profits and doesn’t question them everySource:
quarter.
http://bit.ly/fortunebuffet, http://bit.ly/Busiinessinsider
businesses to buy.
Ranking of
Life Cycle of a
Business Model
business
Framework
What is Capital
Today’s Idea
Allocation?
Track record of
companies Ranking
allocating
Our checklist for successful M&A
Ranking of
Life Cycle of a
Business Model
business
Framework
What is Capital
Today’s Idea
Allocation?
Track record of
companies Ranking
allocating
Ranking of Businesses (Sidecar)
Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3
Today’s
Idea
-Making
Strategic
Investments,
the Same Team New Team
bandwidth is
completely Retains the same team, Own team replaces acquired
free bandwidth gets moderately management, bandwidth gets
stretched. fully stretched.
InfoEdge
A Platform Company providing services of on-line classifieds in the
areas of Recruitment, Matrimony, Real Estate, Education, and related
services in India.
Comparing InfoEdge with Global players
Particulars Berkshire Constellation Recruit InfoEdge
Hathaway Software Holdings
Media: Digital platforms like Facebook, Google ads already account for
~50% of all advertising. This is disrupting business models of traditional
media such as Cable, Radio and Print.
For instance,
59 % of used goods buyers are willing to pay for quality verification
of goods or home delivery;
43% of job portal users are willing to pay for auto application for
jobs and
40% of consumers searching for Real Estate are ready to invest
more for legal verification and property checks. Source – Yourstory, KPMG
Source – Yourstory
Source – Yourstory
Internet
Country
Penetration Rates
Japan 91% (2017)
No of profiles(in mn)
127
120
64
13
No of unique clients
485,000
200,000
85,000
76
34
21 22
Seek Anz (Australia) 51job.com (China) Naukri.com Jooble (Russia) Indeed.com (USA)
Source – Similarweb
59.7%
29.1%
21.0%
More traffic coming directly suggests users are finding the network
more valuable over time as it grows.
Source – Similarweb, Andreessen Horowitz
FY08-19
15.8%
FY08-19
FY16-18
2232
786
0 0.0%
Naukri.com Seek Anz(Australia) 51job.com(China) Recruit(Japan)
4000 4124
2522
217
99acres (TTM) Right Move Current Residential Real Estate Australia Zillow (USA) (Dec'18)
(UK)(Dec'18) Advt. Market in India (June'19)
Source – Company, Yahoo Finance
554
70
42
27
11
64.4%
Potential to shift traffic from online search to 65.8%
direct like Naukri.com and global peers here
54.7%
51.6%
47.2%
25.2%
21.6%
48.3
17.9
358
77
36.3%
24.6% 23.1%
12.2% 11.6%
More than 80% of the Indian population is not yet under term
insurance (2016).
1407
158
Policy Bazaar (FY18) Gocompare (UK) (FY18) Money Super Market (UK) (FY18)
Source – Ambit, Inc42.com, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, ET, Company
240000
5000
Docprime (As of May 2019) Wedoctor (China)(As of July 2018) Ping An Good Doctor (China)(As of
Jun 2019)
27
1.2
HSBC Global
Research Value of
valued Zomato Zomato at
Zomato at $3.6 Bn 27.6% $3.6 billion 25920 7144 585
DCF valuations Note: 1 USD = 72 INR
Present Value
Years: 1-10 Year Years FCF (PV)
1 2021 441 401
2 2022 529 437
3 2023 635 477
Growth Rate: 20% 4 2024 762 520
5 2025 914 568
Terminal Growth Rate: 5% 6 2026 1097 619
7 2027 1317 676
Discount Rate: 10% 8 2028 1581 737
9 2029 1897 804
Shares Outstanding (Nos.): 12.21 10 2030 2276 877
About InfoEdge & Investment InfoEdge v/s Size of
Valuation Our Checklist
platform companies Process VC Opportunity
DCF Valuation :
For Policy Bazaar we have taken valuation as per last funding round
TTM Q2FY20
Jeevansathi and Shiksha P/S 4.5 Sales 129 581 48
TTM Q2FY20
99.acres P/S 17.0 Sales 217 3689 302
Value of
Last Fund Policy
Raising Round Bazaar at
Policy Bazaar in Nov-2019 15.9% $1.5 billion 10800 1712 140
Value of
Other Investees- happily other
unmarried, merit nation,mint investee
bird,Unnati Online etc Invested Value 1.0 companies 378 378 31
Total Optionalities other than
Zomato 6359 521
Wealth creation
PE & VC
Company players buys Exit Get listed at
established stake in early Route high valuations
stage
In today's time the IPO’s are coming at very high valuations just
because PE and VC players had entered in the company in early stages
and one of the exit route for these players is to sell the stake when the
company gets listed so this is forcing the company to list at high
valuations.
Potential to
Platform InfoEdge buys
become the
Company small stakes at
next big
established an early age
company
Cities Stores
400
7
300
vs
2
Ranking of
Life Cycle of a
Business Model
business
Framework
What is Capital
Today’s Idea
Allocation?
Track record of
companies Ranking
allocating
Our checklist for Ranking the Business
Key Essentials to look for in a company
Buffett Management Check – Energy, Intelligence and Integrity
Scalability – Market Size
FV= PV (1+r) ^n
Longevity - Moats
Favorable Industry Structure – Ltd Players
Reasonable Valuations
Desirable Competitive advantages we look at in a business:
Annuity Revenues
High Switching cost / Pricing Power
Tailwinds
Sidecar Investing
Optionalities
Ability to capture dominant market share
Anti-fragile
About InfoEdge &
Investment Process InfoEdge v/s VC Size of Opportunity SOTP Our Checklist
platform companies
Disclosure (SEBI RA Regulation)
1. Whether the research analyst or research entity or his associate or his relative has any financial
interest in the subject company and the nature of such financial interest. 1. Yes
2. Whether the research analyst or research entity or its associates or relatives have actual/beneficial
ownership of one percent or more securities of the subject company (at the end of the month 2. No
immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report or date of the public
appearance).
3. Whether the research analyst or research entity or his associate or his relative, has any other
material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of 3. No
public appearance.
4. Whether it or Its associates have received any compensation from the subject company in the past 4. No
twelve months.
5. Whether it or its associates have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the 5. No
subject company in the past twelve months.
6. Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for investment banking or merchant 6. No
banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months.
7. Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for products or services other than 7. No
investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the
past twelve months.
8. Whether the subject company is or was a client during twelve months preceding the date of
distribution of the research report and the types of services provided. 8. No
9. Whether the research analyst has served as an officer, director or employee of the subject
company. 9. No
10. Whether the research analyst or research entity has been engaged in market making activity for
the subject company. 10. No
Disclaimer
The content of this presentation is only for the
information of the participants and not to be
construed as investment advice. Please consult your
financial advisor before acting on it.
ashishkila@gmail.com
http://perfectresearch.blogspot.in
@ashishkila, @perfectresearch
+91-99997-51327