E Commerce A Solution To Pakistans Economic Woes
E Commerce A Solution To Pakistans Economic Woes
E Commerce A Solution To Pakistans Economic Woes
A Plausible Solution to
Pakistan’s Economic Woes
September 2019
E-commerce – A Plausible Solution to Pakistan’s Economic Woes
Executive Summary
Pakistan has long been in a quest to transform its economy into a vibrant and technologically
advanced country having a trade surplus, ample foreign exchange reserves, where its citizens
have greater job opportunities with better incomes and higher standards of living. If there is one
such sector that could be developed to achieve the national vision of prosperity, it could be
safely said that E-commerce is the one, as it tends to take almost all other sectors in stride.
E-commerce refers to the buying and selling of goods or services using the internet. By utilizing
E-commerce, businesses can extend their reach to national and international markets with
relatively lower capital investment.
Pakistan’s E-commerce industry has been estimated at PKR 99.3Bn in FY18 (FY17: PKR 51.8Bn)
with YoY growth of 92%. With a population of ~208Mn and a number of financial inclusion
solutions in terms of branchless banking, Pakistan offers one of the largest untapped markets in
the world for E-commerce. Although, the country has about 71.71Mn broadband subscribers
and 69.64Mn 3G/4G subscriptions, E-commerce has not reached to a level where electronic
money is predominantly used in place of cash for such transactions.
There are a host of reasons why Pakistan has not been able to realize its full potential in
developing its E-commerce system. Two factors highly critical for the promotion of E-commerce
industry in Pakistan are financial inclusion and literacy required to conduct a transaction. The
world’s preferred digital payment method, PayPal, is not available in Pakistan due to a number
of reasons. PayPal allows for low cost international transfer of funds for both E-commerce sales
and freelancing proceeds. Further, presence of global B2B and B2C portals like Amazon and eBay
is also lacking in Pakistan. If such a portal was present in Pakistan, it would have far-reaching
benefits across businesses as currently they are deprived of a large market opportunity.
Quality content is not readily available in regional languages of Pakistan. If good quality tutorials
describing steps to conduct E-commerce transactions in local languages in a simple manner are
available easily, the pace of E-commerce and digital transformation would increase quite
significantly.
Pakistan needs to use E-commerce as a tool to increase exports and lead to a higher tax
collection. This would lead to reduction in fiscal and current account deficits, shoring up of
foreign reserves and reduction in poverty. Pakistan has just scratched the surface with regard to
E-commerce. In order for Pakistan to get a bigger share of global exports, Pakistani businessmen
need to reinvent their strategy of conducting business and buy the most important real estate
of the 21st century – “online presence”.
Table of Contents
What is E-commerce?.........................................................................................................1
Pakistan has long been in a quest to transform its economy into a dominant position,
where it could be counted as a true Asian Tiger. A vibrant and technologically advanced
country having a trade surplus with its trading partners, ample foreign exchange
reserves to fund its imports, and where its citizens have greater job opportunities with
better incomes and higher standards of living. To progress in this quest, the government
has outlined an economic vision which also entails creation of 10Mn jobs in 5 years. To
realize this vision, the govt. needs to look no further than the E-commerce sector; if
there is one such sector which could be developed to achieve the government’s target,
it could be safely said that E-commerce is the one, as it tends to take almost all other
sectors in stride.
What is E-commerce?
E-commerce refers to E-commerce, or electronic commerce, refers to the buying and selling of goods or
the buying and selling services using the internet, including the transfer of data and money to fulfill the
of goods or services transactions. E-commerce removes the geographical barriers of trade as sellers from
using the internet different areas can deliver products and services to customers all across the country
and even the world. It diverts transactions from the black or informal economy by
bringing previously invisible goods, such as unlawfully imported goods or off the record
trading, into the formal economy.
Source: www.medium.com
Barrier of huge capital
investment is
considerably lowered as E-commerce – a rapidly evolving global phenomenon
organizations can start By utilizing E-commerce, businesses can extend their reach to national and
operating at a fraction international markets with relatively lower capital investment. Barrier of huge capital
of the cost required for investment is considerably lowered as organizations can start operating at a fraction
setting up a of the cost required for setting up a conventional business, while at the same time
conventional business reducing overheads associated with such traditional shops. E-commerce has increased
rural inclusion into mainstream society as people in rural areas now have access to the
same products and services as urban dwellers.
10.00 0.75
Consumers have been observed to be loyal to a portal where they have had good
experience, indicating that the adage ‘first impression is the last impression’ also holds
1
UNCTAD estimates for year 2017
2
www.statista.com; KPMG Global Online Consumer Report
true in E-commerce. Retail sites get visited through mobile phones more (60%) for
product surveys and price comparison, but when it comes to completing the checkout
process, computers are the definite tools of transaction (60% of the transactions are
actually carried out through computers as compared to 40% by mobile devices).
US 1,952
UK 1,639
Germany 1,101
France 1,010
China 634
Spain 601
Italy 407
Mexico 134
Brazil 123
Argentina 118
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Source:KCCI Research; Statista
Generation X people With respect to demographics, Generation X people (born in 1965-1980) are currently
(born in 1965-1980) the main drivers behind online sales globally, with average 19 transactions per year.
are currently the However, as income of millennials (born between 1981 and 1996) start rising, their
main drivers behind share in online shopping is expected to far exceed older generations.
online sales globally
B2C E-commerce Market Revenue by Key Sectors ($ Bn)
3,000
253 267
2,500 233
210 423
2,000 398
168 187 364
324 438 460
1,500 154 284 407
251 370
228 332 581 619
1,000 281 302
474
531
368 417
500 331
759 837 896
444 500 577 668
-
2017 2018 2019(F) 2020(F) 2021(F) 2022(F) 2023(F)
Returns Policy 1%
Peer Advice 2%
Mobile wallets have overtaken cards as the method of choice to conduct E-commerce
transactions globally3, from electronic cards previously, as rapidly evolving technology
has created a dramatic shift. With ease of use of Fintech apps, Digital Wallets link
smartphones to make payments based on QR codes, NFC (Near Field Communication)
and other similar technologies.
Cash on Delivery 5% 4% 4% 7% 4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
3
Digital in 2019
Product of: KCCI Research & Development Department
4
E-commerce – A Plausible Solution to Pakistan’s Economic Woes
fact, 57% of B2B companies believe commerce is rapidly shifting from offline to online.
B2B buyers increasingly prefer the option to self-serve online by researching,
contacting, buying, and managing their suppliers through a single web-based platform.
Three trends in particular that have had a substantial impact on how, when, and where
B2B companies sell their products and services are:
1. Building an E-commerce platform was a difficult task some years ago. Now
About 60% of
innovation has made it easier than ever for B2B companies to affordably and quickly
business buyers
create an online buying experience to meet their client’s needs.
purchase goods for
their companies 2. Two-thirds of B2B companies expect to stop publishing print catalogues within the
online next three to five years, moving instead to mobile-friendly versions that can be viewed
on mobile devices or tablets.
3. Before the emergence of E-commerce, most B2B buying processes were managed
on paper, through a digital order entry system or over the phone. Though some old
fashioned B2B customers still prefer those processes, about 60% of business buyers
purchase goods for their companies online.
4
SBP
Product of: KCCI Research & Development Department
5
E-commerce – A Plausible Solution to Pakistan’s Economic Woes
69.64Mn 3G/4G subscriptions, E-commerce has not reached to a level where electronic
money is predominantly used in place of cash for such transactions.
The first foreign entrant into the Pakistani E-commerce landscape was OLX, which
started its operations in 2010. In 2012, Rocket Internet, a German investment firm,
launched Daraz.com.pk and FoodPanda.pk. Ride hailing companies Careem and Uber
then ventured into the Pakistani market in 2015 and 2016 respectively, introducing a
new dimension in Pakistani cabbing.
Multi retailer platform: These are the dominant forces in the E-commerce industry
having a wide collection of products listed on their websites. Examples of these
platforms are Daraz, Symbios, Foodpanda, Bookme.pk, Yayvo, Goto, Well.pk etc.
Niche retailers: They focus on one niche and try to leverage their specialty to drive
Services having sales. Examples are online stores like Higher.com.pk and Babynestboutique.com
dedicated apps are etc.
disrupting the
Companies having their own online stores through which orders can be placed.
transportation business
Retailers like Gul Ahmed and Khaadi are good examples of this category.
in Pakistan
Facebook/social media retailers have very well established Facebook stores or
groups. Examples are Facebook business pages (shops) like Karachi Buy & Sell.
Usually housewives and traders who want another avenue of sales make up the
bulk of this segment.
Services having dedicated apps such as Uber, Careem, Paxi and Bykea are
disrupting the transportation business in Pakistan like they have globally. People
can book rides from the convenience of their homes.
Timeliness 2.66
3.5
Tracking & Tracing 2.27
3.32
Logistics Competence 2.59
3.13
International Shipments 2.63
3.21
Infrastructure 2.2
2.91
Customs 2.12
2.96
LPI Score 2.42
3.18
0 1 2 3 4
The chart below depicts the UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index, which measures an
economy’s preparedness to support E-commerce development. Pakistan ranks in the
rankings at 120 as against India’s 83.
China 65
Sri Lanka 73
Vietnam 74
India 83
Philippines 96
Bangladesh 103
Nepal 108
Pakistan 120
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
* Figures for 2017 Source: KCCI Research; UNCTAD
The biggest gap between India and Pakistan occurs in the value of human capital, which
lies at the heart of innovation. India has more than 15 E-commerce companies and
In terms of Human startups, valued at more than $ 1Bn, whereas Pakistan has none. In terms of Human
Capital Index for 2017, Capital Index rankings for 2017, Pakistan ranks 134th as compared to India’s 115th. It is
Pakistan ranks at 134th lamentable that Indian policy makers have figured out the correct theme to enhance its
in the world exports through cross-border E-commerce whereas Pakistan is still struggling in this
domain.
Having access to PayPal Absence of a globally accepted and viable payment system
allows exporters to The world’s preferred digital payment method, PayPal, is not available in Pakistan due
receive money easily, to a number of reasons, including payment clearance complications, money laundering
due to lower transaction issues, and high costs of entry. Having access to PayPal allows exporters to receive
fee and an easy dispute money easily, as it charges only 2.5% as transaction fee and offers an easy dispute
settlement mechanism mechanism. Availability of PayPal leads to more business due to the trust factor.
Another reason for PayPal not coming into Pakistan is that it is not easy for small firms
to obtain business credentials. As such firms lack a credible trading history, international
payment providers such as PayPal tend to preclude them from engaging in any activity
whatsoever.
Pakistan ranks as the 4th most popular country for freelancing in the world where
freelancers receive work from E-commerce platforms such as Fiver, Freelancer. Cross-
border payment solutions such as Payoneer and Skrill charge a fee between 5% and
30%. Having access to PayPal allows freelancers to ask their customers to remit
Pakistan ranks as the payments via this platform, at lower costs. Former Finance Minister Asad Umar said that
4th most popular Pakistan will try to bring PayPal’s services in the country or build its own replacement
country for as China did with Alipay. Unfortunately, nothing concrete has materialized as yet.
freelancing in the
world behind India, Another hindrance that freelancers face is in the form of official documentation, Form
Bangladesh and the R, required by the SBP. Freelancers describe the form as redundant and unnecessarily
US time consuming.
90%
78%
80%
70%
59%
60%
48% 47%
50%
40% 36% 35%
29% 27%
30%
20% 19%
20%
10%
0%
Financial inclusion refers to the provision of financial services to low income segments
Two factors highly at a reasonable cost. Even with the success of branchless banking with mobile wallets
critical for the such as Easy Paisa and Jazz cash, Pakistan still has a large unbanked population residing
promotion of E- in rural areas. So a substantial effort is required to increase financial inclusion so that
commerce industry in they too can reap the benefit of the digital revolution. The other variable is the access
Pakistan: (i) financial to and literacy required to use the technology through which E-commerce takes place.
inclusion (ii) sufficient
The SBP is actively working to enhance financial inclusion in the country. Private
literacy
institutions such as Karandaaz are also working for the promotion of SMEs, particularly
startups that include E-commerce ventures. Such efforts are paving the way towards a
digital economy based on financial inclusiveness and empowerment of the unbanked,
particularly women. Initiatives like Women Entrepreneurship Challenge are being taken
where women-led startups are being provided funding and mentorship.
vendor) and refunds and weak customer support are major reasons why many people
still prefer to buy from shops rather than online. This is also one reason why foreign
online businesses do not invest in Pakistan, as there is a lack of robust system of checks
and balances in place, one where criminals are prosecuted and consumer rights are
protected.
Government intervention may be key to addressing the vast majority of the problems
that affect aftersales. For example, by adopting laws and regulations specifically
designed to safeguard the economic interests of consumers (e.g. right to return and
cancellation policies, policies protecting data transfer and privacy, and information
The Pakistan
requirements). The government can surely help E-commerce businesses in their quest
Electronics Crime
to build a good reputation and encourage consumers to engage in E-commerce.
Act (PECA) 2016 has
provisions that
Inadequate protection of data is another issue that may arise in the context of cross-
offer remedy for
border delivery of services. A number of services require consumers to provide suppliers
any person who has
with personal data (e.g telemedicine). However, consumers want to ensure that their
been wronged by E-
data is used only for the purpose of the service to be provided and that they are not, for
commerce stores
example, transferred to third parties for unsolicited marketing or other unscrupulous
activities.
with regard to the E-commerce industry and its regulatory and legal frameworks; it
needs to work on them on a war footing. If it manages to build policies that support the
industry than rapid growth of Pakistan’s economy and its exports is possible.
One of the major reason for Pakistan’s weak exports is lack of realization that B2B E-
commerce exports are the present and future of exports. In order for Pakistan to get a
One of the major bigger share of global exports, Pakistani businessmen need to reinvent their strategy
reason for Pakistan’s how they conduct business and buy the most important real estate of the 21st century
weak exports is the lack – “online presence”. Pakistan therefore needs to learn from the model applied by its
of realization that B2B regional competitors for promoting its ICT industry and in turn enhance cross-border
E-commerce exports exports. It also needs to realize that its cross-border E-commerce growth will only
are the present and materialize when Pakistani entrepreneurs regularly come up with innovations instead
future of exports. of producing the same goods that they have been producing for decades.
Cross-border delivery
Cross-border delivery depends critically on countries’ transport infrastructure and
customs clearance practices. Simplifying custom procedures would require the govt. to
review cumbersome regulation as well as corruption. A good step that the government
Pakistan Post has now has taken is that Pakistan Post has now extended ‘EMS Plus’ parcel export service to the
extended EMS Plus entire world. Parcels will be sent to 50 countries such as Japan, Canada, UK and US
parcel export service to within 72 hours. This will help boost cross-border B2C E-commerce exports from
the entire world. Pakistan.
difficulties experienced by exporters, who must fill out many export declarations as a
result of the large numbers of sales. Korean Customs has also incorporated Simplified
Export Declaration for E-commerce, significantly reducing the information items on the
export declaration from 57 to 37. Pakistan Customs can replicate this with WeBOC
system to simplify and boost ecommerce export procedure.
SBP, in a welcome move, has allowed banks to facilitate freelancers and banks can now
receive remittances by resident individuals from reputed online platforms up to $ 1,500
per individual per month. This limit needs to be enhanced further.
SBP has announced the A very big increase is expected in the number of freelancers in Pakistan, as under the
issuance of digital President of Pakistan Initiative of Artificial Intelligence and Cloud Computing, around
currency by 2025. 10,000 students are being taught the disciplines. Many students will enter the
freelancing arena in a year and introduction of Alipay may well yield a boost in their
forex based earnings.
A silver lining for Pakistan is that in on the Alibaba portal, Pakistan now has its own
dedicated pavilion. Currently there are more than 3,000 paid members and most of
them are based in Sialkot, Lahore and Faisalabad, while textile, leather, surgical
instruments and sports goods sectors are the top categories. Even before the launch of
Pakistan’s page, Ali Baba has been attracting local buyers and suppliers. Overall, it has
around 250,000 registered members from Pakistan.
There is a dire need for Pakistani venture capitalists and angel investors to invest in
these cross-border E-commerce exporting startups. Government should also consider
creating a fund dedicated for this purpose.
simply means web traffic analysis. For instance, findings reveal that strong cultural and
colonial history has allowed UK-based retailers to successfully sell to former
commonwealth markets. Similarly, global fashion trends get dictated by Hollywood and
Western television catalyzes demand for Western brands globally.
Pakistan’s problem of Dilating on the same lines, Pakistan is a leading country in the world that produces
its trade deficit can be footballs. If Pakistani businessmen can leverage this good international reputation and
solved in less than 24 try to sell direct to consumers globally, a new channel of cross-border B2C E-commerce
hours sales can arise.
Pakistan, due to wide-spread presence of its diaspora across the globe in general, and
in the Islamic world, is in a unique position to create international day-specific shopping
festivals of its own. Some E-commerce day festival themes that Pakistan as a country
can do are:
Pakistani businesses need to wake up from their slumber otherwise its largely stagnant
Pakistan can
exports will start to diminish. They need to open up their websites while also opening
increase its GDP by $
up to mobile commerce as traffic from offline models (such as procurement through
36Bn and create
paper, phone and digital order entry systems) is shifting to the web. They have to shift
4Mn jobs by 2025
away from searching for buyers in a pond that is getting emptier and shift towards E-
via an increase in
commerce.
the use of digital
financial services
E-commerce for job creation
alone
Pakistan can increase its GDP by $ 36Bn and create 4Mn jobs by 2025 via an increase in
the use of digital financial services alone.5 Other estimates suggest the online portals
such as Daraz could alone create 1Mn, direct and indirect jobs by 2022. Hence, a
substantial portion of the Prime Minister’s recent initiative to create 10Mn jobs can be
achieved by focusing on E-commerce.
5
McKinsey, 2016
Product of: KCCI Research & Development Department
16
E-commerce – A Plausible Solution to Pakistan’s Economic Woes
The Rural Taobao Program has expanded quickly, from 211 villages in 2014 to more than
3,202 villages in 2018.
2,500
2,118
2,000
1,500 1,331
1,000 780
500 211
20
-
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: KCCI Research; Ali Baba
6
SECP figures as of July’19
Product of: KCCI Research & Development Department
17
E-commerce – A Plausible Solution to Pakistan’s Economic Woes
Under this proposed program, the govt. can subsidize website development of small
A low cost online
and cottage industries. There are more than an estimated 3Mn SMEs in Pakistan7,
website creation
majority of them operating in the informal economy. The govt. would only need to
scheme to boost the
initiate a website development program and training workshop for these companies.
IT industry of Pakistan
The govt. can set a target of creating 500,000 websites, with an aim to set up 100,000
sites in the first phase. 100,000 companies from the informal economy, with an online
presence - be it on their websites or any global E-commerce platform - with an
extremely doable online sales revenue of PKR 6,000 revenue every day, translates to
nearly $ 1Bn a year to the economy.
7
Estimates by Alibaba
Product of: KCCI Research & Development Department
18
E-commerce – A Plausible Solution to Pakistan’s Economic Woes
musicians are all reaping the benefits of E-commerce, as content producers have easier
access to distribution and have more communication channels at disposal. Following
the examples of India and Nigeria, Pakistan should try promoting its creative content,
be it movie, TV dramas or live shows, to a global audience through platforms such as
Pakistan also needs to YouTube and Netflix.
strengthen its unique
selling points to brand Pakistan also needs to strengthen its unique selling points to brand itself in both regional
itself in both regional and global markets. One big avenue is the Pakistani TV drama which is followed with
and global markets zeal regionally and globally. Pakistan’s Lawn fabric is a hallmark of its textile industry in
the global markets due to high quality of its fabric and unique designing. Textile firms
specializing in Lawn fabric can make use of the drama popularity to enhance their direct
to consumer E-commerce sales to consumers in neighboring countries, thereby
bypassing many regional trade barriers.
Similarly, writers in Pakistan can publish their work online and make it available to
South Korea’s online readers worldwide.
exports surged 25%
Korean Wave refers to the global popularity of South Korea's cultural economy
on the back of
exporting pop culture, entertainment, music, TV dramas and movies. The gradual
growing demand for
buildup resulted in South Korea’s online exports surging by 25% in 2018 on the back of
K-beauty and K-pop
growing demand for K-beauty and K-pop related items such as album records and
related items.
stationery supplies. Pakistan needs to develop a Pakistan wave similar to the Korean
Wave.
8
AliResearch and Accenture
Product of: KCCI Research & Development Department
19
E-commerce – A Plausible Solution to Pakistan’s Economic Woes
China to get a very small fraction of its huge cross-border E-commerce market, this
could go a long way to solve the country’s economic woes. Garments, footwear and
CPEC provides an headwear are the products most in demand in China’s online shopping market; the
ideal opportunity for China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) provides an ideal opportunity for Pakistan to
Pakistan to carve out carve out a bigger slice of this very lucrative market: this opportunity should not be
a bigger slice of this missed at all.
very lucrative
market Some additional measures to increase Pakistan’s E-commerce exports
The govt. needs to be pushed for greater focus on industrial capacity enhancement,
as without high value addition, all measures would be useless.
E-commerce, Karachi needs to take up its due role as the cross-border E-commerce hub
of Pakistan, similar to what Hangzhou did for China.
Hangzhou, capital of East China's Zhejiang province, and home to China's E-commerce
giant Alibaba, was the first experimental zone for cross-border E-commerce. Its trade
volume in cross-border E-commerce has risen from 100Mn Yuan in 2014 to more than
60Bn Yuan in 2017, and the scale of the industry has grown nearly 500 times. Cross-
border E-commerce was the catalyst for Hangzhou's industrial upgrading and economic
Success of Hangzou growth.
led to the
Some of the policies that Hangzhou’s cross-border E-commerce zone offers are paper-
establishment of
less process of tax refunds. The govt. subsidizes the development of E-commerce for
other cross border E-
sectors such as such as electronics and clothing. The govt. also provides 50,000 Yuan in
commerce zones in
start-up fund for enterprise in these markets. Entities which exceed $ 1Mn in exports
China
are given a onetime subsidy of up to 30,000 Yuan. For easy payment, settling and
currency exchange, each enterprise and individuals is permitted to open overseas
accounts. The success of Hangzhou led to establishment of other cross-border E-
commerce zones across China.
Pakistan needs to apply similar policies in Karachi as, like Hangzhou, it is a port city with
Karachi needs to the largest educated population in Pakistan and the highest number of private
have a cross-border businesses who are part of traditional commerce. Karachi needs to have a cross-border
E-commerce zone to E-commerce zone to radically alter the destiny of the city and the country. To implement
radically alter the the plan, Karachi needs to be provided all facilities for setting up centers of innovation,
destiny of the city and requisite warehousing and logistics infrastructure, among other requirements.
and the country
Pakistan has just scratched the surface – it needs to do a lot more
Establishing online business, integration of preferred international payment options,
cross-border delivery and after sales service are the four main steps on getting started
and being successful with international E-commerce. Country specific logistics,
warehousing, regulatory requirements, import certifications, taxes and duties, and
Pakistan would do online marketing also need to be a key element in the Pakistani company’s strategy.
mighty well in E-
Global leaders in E-commerce are way far ahead of Pakistan thanks to good governance,
commerce if it could
higher value of human capital due to rigorous and innovative academic curriculum and
capitalize on the
higher industrial innovation and capacity building. Pakistan needs to focus on enhancing
humungous
its product variety and value addition levels, knowing well that the future of
opportunities
manufacturing is 3D printing, artificial intelligence, robotics and data analytics,
presented by the
otherwise it will be further left behind in exports. Much emphasis is being laid on OBOR
Digital Silk Road
(One Belt One Road) initiative; Pakistan would do mighty well in E-commerce if it could
capitalize on the humungous opportunities presented by the Digital Silk Road.
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* Analysts: Uzma Taslim - Director, Shehzad Mubashsher – Deputy Director, M. Kamran Khan – Research Analyst,
Asad Bilal Shaikh – Research Analyst, Yasir Farooqui– Research Analyst, and Sunny Kumar– Research Database
Officer.