Binomial Distribuiton Assumptions of Binomial Distribuiton
Binomial Distribuiton Assumptions of Binomial Distribuiton
Binomial Distribuiton Assumptions of Binomial Distribuiton
Binomial formula:
p(x)=ncx*p^x*q^(n-x)
n=number of trials
x=dsired no of succeses
p=probability of succes
q=probabilty of failure
Question1:
Services Administration (SAMSHA) suggests that 69.7% of 18-20 year olds consumed alcoholic beverages in 2008.49
(a) Suppose a random sample of ten 18-20 year olds is taken. Is the use of the binomial distribution appropriate for calcula
(b) Calculate the probability that exactly 6 out of 10 randomly sampled 18- 20 year olds consumed an alcoholic drink.
(c) What is the probability that exactly four out of ten 18-20 year olds have not consumed an alcoholic beverage?
(d) What is the probability that at most 2 out of 5 randomly sampled 18-20 year olds have consumed alcoholic beverages?
(e) What is the probability that at least 1 out of 5 randomly sampled 18-20 year olds have consumed alcoholic beverages?
solution:
a)Yes;
because there are fixed no of trials 10 and each one is independent as a it is random sample and probability of succ
b)Given x=6 n=10 p=0.697
p(x=6)=0.202949 n
10
Question 2:
3.27 Underage drinking, Part II. We learned in Exercise 3.25 that about 70% of 18-20 year olds consumed alcoholic beverag
(a) How many people would you expect to have consumed alcoholic beverages? And with what standard deviation?
(b) Would you be surprised if there were 45 or more people who have consumed alcoholic beverages
solution:
a)given n=50 p=0.7
how many people=mean
mean=n*p
mean=35
sd=sqrt(npq)
sd=3.24
b)x=45
z =x-mean/sd
z=3.08
from this we can say say that it three standard devaitions away so it is a unusual event
ds consumed alcoholic beverages in 2008. We now consider a random sample of fifty 18-20 year olds.
hat standard deviation?
poisson Distribuiton:
assumptions of poisson distribuiton:
1:it is discrete distributon
2:it measures the rare events
3:it discrete number of outcomes in over a interval
4:occurrences in each interval ranges from zero to infinity
5:the expected no of outcomes must be constant throughout the experiment
poisson formula:
P(observe k events) =(λ^ke^−λ)/k!
λ=expected long run average
k=desired suceess
question1:
Find P(x=5/λ=2.3)
solution:
P(x=5/λ=2.3)=0.053775
mean=λ
std=sqrt(λ)
question2:
p(x<=3)/λ=4.1)
solution:
p(x=0)+p(x=1)+p(x=2)+p(x=3)
p(x=0)+p(x=1)+p(x=2)+p(x=3)=0.414182
mean 4.51
0
5
4
9
9 7
7
7 prob 0.225806
8
1
1
1
8
6
λ x prob 10 p(x=1) 0.049603
2.3 5 0.053775 10
2
1
2
6
5
1
6
10
2
4.1 0 0.016573 1
4.1 1 0.067948 5
4.1 2 0.139293 9
4.1 3 0.190368 4
6
4
0.414182 1
verifying poisson distribuiton
Normal Distribuiton:
1:it is continous distribuiton
2:it is syymetric
3:it is family of curves
4:it assympotic towards the x axis
5:it is bell shaped curve
6:mean median mode are at the same point
7:99.7% values lie between mu-3*sd
Question1:
n. The mean score for Verbal Reasoning section for all test takers was 151 with a standard deviation of 7, and the mean score for the Q
(a) Write down the short-hand for these two normal distributions
b) What is Sophia’s Z-score on the Verbal Reasoning section? On the Quantitative Reasoning section? Draw a standard nor
(c) What do these Z-scores tell you?
(d) Relative to others, which section did she do better on?
(e) Find her percentile scores for the two exams.
(f) What percent of the test takers did better than her on the Verbal Reasoning section? On the Quantitative Reasoning sec
(g) Explain why simply comparing raw scores from the two sections could lead to an incorrect conclusion as to which sectio
(h) If the distributions of the scores on these exams are not nearly normal, would your answers to parts (b) - (f) change? Ex
solution:
given
verbal score mean:151 sd:7
quantitative: mean:153 sd:7.67
a)verbal=N(151,7) quantitative=N(153,7.67)
b)zscore verbal=(160-151)/7=1.285714
zscore quant=(157-153)/7.67=0.521512
c)Z score tell us that sophia apprx one stdev above mean in verbal and 0.5 stedv above mean in quantitative
d)relative to others she did best in verbal because in verbal she is one stdev above mean compared to quantitative
e)percentile for verbal=p(x=1.285)=by using Z table=0.8997=90%
percentile for quantitative=p(x=0.5212)=by using z table=0.697=70%
f)in verbal 10% did better (100-90)
in quantitative 30% did better (100-70)
g)we cants compare with raw scores because they are in different scales so we calculate percentiles
h)no because if they are z score will not come into picture z table will not come into picture
Question2:
Suppose weights of the checked baggage of airline passengers follow a nearly normal distribution with mean 45 pounds a
Most airlines charge a fee for baggage that weigh in excess of 50 pounds. Determine what percent of airline passengers in
solution:
given mean=45 sd=3.2 p(x>50)
p(x>50)=1-p(x<50)
zscore=(50-45)/3.2=1.562
refer z table=0.9406
so answer is 94%
This chart isn't available in your version of Excel.
f 7, and the mean score for the Quantitative Reasoning was 153 with a standard deviation of 7.67. Suppose that both distributions are
ng section? Draw a standard normal distribution curve and mark these two Z-scores
0.521512
ean in quantitative
compared to quantitative
sampling distribuiton:
if sample are drawn and calculate the statistic of each sample and store in a random variable:
the probability distribuiton of the sample statistic is called as the sampling distribuiton
CLT theroem:
clt theroem states that from population with mean and sd several samples of n size are drawn
if population is normal then for any n size sampling distribuiton is normal:
if population is not normal then when sample size tends from n>30 to infinity then only sampling distribuiton will be normal
and also sates states that
sample mean=population mean making inferences about population by samples
sample sd=population sd/sqrt(n)
As the sample size increases the sample sd decreases and the normal curve grows taller
As the sampling distribuiton is normal we can use zscores and can solve many problems
Question 1:
The distribution of the number of eggs laid by a certain species of hen during their breeding period has a mean of 35 eggs wit
45 hens of this species, counts the number of eggs laid during their breeding period, and records the sample mean. They repe
(a) What is this distribution called?
(b) Would you expect the shape of this distribution to be symmetric, right skewed, or left skewed? Explain your reasoning.
(c) Calculate the variability of this distribution and state the appropriate term used to refer to this value.
(d) Suppose the researchers’ budget is reduced and they are only able to collect random samples of 10 hens. The sample mea
times, and build a new distribution of sample means. How will the variability of this new distribution compare to the variability
solution:
a)so they built a distribuiton os sample means=distribuion of sample statistic so it is a sampling distribuiton
b)symmetric,here we don’t know the population distribuiton
but according to clt if pop dis is not normal sampling distribuiton will be only if sample size is >30
here sample size is 45 which is greater than 30 and it is a random sample so the distribuiton is symmetric
c)variability of the distriibuiton is nothing but stadard error
standard error is the used to refer
stadard error =sample sd=popsd/sqrt(n)
sample stadard deviation=2.7
d)the variability of the new distribuiton will be high than the old distribuiton
if sample size is less than 30 and pop distribuiton is not known no matter how many times you repeat the experiment does no
question 2:
a given population proportion is 0.25
a.n=110 p<0.21
b)n=33 p>2.4
c)n=80 p<0.3
Solution:
a) given p=0.25 q=0.75
sd=sqrt(pq/n)=0.036
z value= -0.96
p(x<0.21)= 0.166
sd=sqrt(pq/n)=0.04
zvalue=-1.22
p(x>0.24)=1-p(x<0.24)=0.88
c)p=0.3 q=0.7
sd=0.05
zvalue=0.97
p(x<0.3)=0.8340
g distribuiton will be normal
iod has a mean of 35 eggs with a standard deviation of 18.2. Suppose a group of researchers randomly sample
s the sample mean. They repeat this 1,000 times, and build a distribution of sample means.
s of 10 hens. The sample mean of the number of eggs is recorded, and we repeat this 1,000
tion compare to the variability of the original distribution?
epeat the experiment does not matter
confidence interval if population standard deviation is unknown:
Untill now we calculated the confidence interval if we know the information
about the population stadard deviation.but in some situations we don’t know
about the population standard deviation at that situation what to do?
simply replace the population standard deviation with the population standard deviation
Does it works? The answer is Big Nooo then what to do?
here comes the t distribuition into the scene
t distribuiton is family of curves for each value of n there is different curve
degrees of freedom=n-1
As the n value is greater than 30 the t distribuion references to the normal distribuiton
As we have in the same way we have t table unlike in Z table in t able rows are degrees of freedom
and columns are critical values
Formula for confidence interval using t distribuiton:
solution:
given ci(18.985,21.015) n=36
sample mean=lb+ub/2=18.985+21.015/2=20
sample mean=20
so from sample mean marginerror=sample mean-lb=20-18.985=1.015
2.03*sd/6=1.015
by solving we get
sd=3 so
sample mean=20 and sample sd=3
Question2:
A market researcher wants to evaluate car insurance savings at a competing company. Based on past studies he is assuming th
is $100. He wants to collect data such that he can get a margin of error of no more than $10 at a 95% con fidence level. How la
solution:
given sd=100 me<=10 ci 95%
talpha/2*100/sqrt(n)<=10
by observing we can assume that sample size is large so assume to be Z
1.96*100/sqrt(n)<=10
19.6<=sqrt(n)
n>=384.16
so n=384 approx
< x̅ + tα/2 * sd / √n
solution1:
question2:
A survey conducted on a reasonably random sample of 203 undergraduates asked, among many other questions, about th
these students have been in. The histogram below shows the distribution of the data from this sample. The sample averag
Estimate the average number of exclusive relationships Duke students have been in using a 90% confidence interval and in
and note any assumptions you must make as you proceed with your calculations and conclusions.
solution2:
sample mean=3.2 sd=1.97 n=203
confidence 90%=alpha/2=0.05
confidence interval
2.98 to3.42
from this we can say that we are 90% confindent the value lies between 2.98 and 3.42
< x̅ + Zα/2 * σ / √n
This works untill the population standard deviation is given if population standard deviation is not
given then:
we can use t distribuiton but to use t distrivbuiton wee need n?
so first we use z formula obtain n and include that n in t statistic and
find the sample size
Question:
• the margin of error E=0.0405 that corresponds to the given statistics and confidence level.
99% confidence; find the sample size , of which 45% are successes.
solution:
given p=0.45 q=0.55 ci=99%
Me=0.00405
sample size=1.96^2*36^2/5^2
sample size=199.18
4978.714
199.1485
confidence interval and point estimate for variance:
As we all know standard deviation is not the best point estimate
In order to calculate the ci for variance the the population should be normally distributed
so here chi distribuiton comes into place
the chi square distribuiton is probability distribuiton of the sum of independen or squared
normal distribuiton variable
the chi square is right skewed
it is family of curves for every degrres of freedom there is one curve
mean=df var=2*df
the formula for calculating the confidence interval for the variance is:
σ2 < (n−1)s2 /χ 2 1− α /2 and σ2 > (n−1)s2/χ 2 α /2
In chi square distribuiton the curve is not symmetric so we should take alpha/2 and 1-alpha/2
Question:
Given n=12, x̅ = 30, s 2 = 44.9, set up 99% confidence interval for σ 2
solution:
apha/2=0.005 1-alphaa/2=0.995
x**2 alpha/2=2.6 x**2(1-alpha/2)=26.7
df=n-1=11 493.9 18.49813
lower limit=18
upper limit=189.9
Question:
A sensitive measuring device should not have a large variance in the errors of measurements it makes. A random sample of 4
given
n=41 so df=40
s2=102
apha/2=0.005 1-alphaa/2=0.995
x**2 alpha/2=66.76 x**2(1-alpha/2)=20.71
solution:
b:mean=(a+b)/2=14.5
sd=b-1/sqrt(12)=3.75
c:p(10<=x<17)=x2-x1/b-a=0.53
d:p(x<22)=1
e:p(x>=7)=1
solution:
a.)given a=200 b=240
f(x)=1/b-a=1/40=0.025
b.mean=a+b/2=440/2=220
sd=b-a/sqrt(12)=0/sqrt(12)=11.54
c.p(x>230)=240-230/40=0.25
d.p(205<=x<=220)=220-205/40=0.375
e.p(x<=225)=225-220/40=0.125