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Introduction To Financial Risk Management (With R)

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Introduction to Financial Risk Management (with R)

Instructor – David A. Hsieh


• Professor of finance, Duke University, Fuqua School of Business

• PhD in Economics, MIT

• Research: financial markets  risk management


Course Objective
• Quantify the risk of a portfolio.
• Applies to banks, hedge funds, insurance companies, university
endowments, pension funds
• They have portfolios of assets and liabilities
• They want the value of assets > the value of liabilities

• Analyze real world data with R


• Require basic knowledge of R, finance, statistics
• Sample R code provided
• Short exercises to reinforce learning
Key concepts: Risk Factors
• Values of assets and liabilities depend on many risk factors (=
common sources of risk that are not diversfiable).

• Examples of risk factors: equity indices, interest rates, FX rates,


commodity prices, inflation

• Idiosyncratic risk is diversifiable, therefore not considered


Main Objective
• Future distribution of risk factors

• Value-at-risk (VaR)

• Expected shortfall (ES)


Example: JPM 2016 Form 10K
List of risk management (p. 33)
Enterprise-wide Risk Management
Capital Risk Management
Credit Risk Management
Country Risk Management
Liquidity Risk Management
Market Risk Management
Others: Principal Risk, Compliance Risk, Legal Risk, Model
Risk, Operational Risk, Reputation Risk
Market Risk and VaR
• Daily Market Risk-Related Gains and Losses vs. Risk Management VaR (1-day, 95% Confidence level) during 2016
Statistical tool kit
• Which risk factors are important?
• Equity? Interest rate? FX? Commodity?

• What is the distribution of risk factor returns?


• Normal? Heavy tails?

• How predictable are risk factor returns?


• Serial correlation?
• Volatility clustering?
Computational tool kit
• We will apply the statistical tool kit to a very simplistic
setting using real world data.

• We will use the R program to perform these calculations.


• Microsoft Open R
• RStudio

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