Estimation

of

Peak / Flood Discharge

Peak discharges occur in the rivers in the rainfall season.

Estimation methods:

1) Physical conditions of the past floods

2) Flood discharge formulae
3) Flood frequency studies
4) Unit hydrograph
(1) Physical Conditions of the Past Floods

To know the maximum water level attained in the past 35 years.

 Past flood marks on ancient monuments, etc., along river banks are located.

 Old persons in the villages situated on the bank of the river

 The cross-section pertaining to the highest flood marks can be drawn.

 Obtain from the cross-section:

Water flow area (A)
Wetted perimeter (P)
Hydraulic mean depth / hydraulic radius (R)

 By leveling to u/s and d/s of the cross-section site, S can be determined.

 Using above parameters velocity of flow (V) is computed by Manning’s or

Chezy's equation.

 Using Continuity Equation, flood discharge can be calculated.

 Procedure is repeated at several watermarks, to get consistent results.

(2) Flood Discharge Formulae
First Approach

The general form of the empirical formulae

Q = CAn

where
Q = flood discharge, A = catchment area, C = flood coefficient
and n = flood index

Both C and n depend upon various factors, like

Size, Shape, Location and Topography of catchment

Intensity, Duration and Distribution pattern of the storm
(continued)
Depending upon the above factors flood discharge formula
for each region is developed.

Following are few examples of regional based flood

discharge formulae.

Dicken’s Formula: For various parts of India.

Ryve’s Formula: Madras (India)
Inglis formula: Former Bombay
presidency (India)
Nawab Jang Bahadur formula: Hyderabad state (India)
Fanning’s formula: American catchments
Creager formula: American catchments
Mayer’s formula: American catchments
Second Approach

This includes formulae of the same form as the first approach, i.e.

Q = CAn

but here A refers to cross sectional area of the water way.

Example: Talbot formula.

Third Approach

This includes the formulae of the type:

S
Q  Aci
A

where
i = expected average rainfall
S = average slope of the watershed

Examples:
Burkli-Ziegler formula and
McMath formula
 Fourth Approach: Fuller’s formula
QT  C f A0.8 1  0.8 log T 
p

where
QT  Peak 24-hr flood with a frequency of T years
p

A = Catchment area (km2)

Cf = Fuller’s constant = 0.18 – 1.88

Derived for U.S.A catchments.

 Fifth Approach: Rational Formula
It is characterized by:
consideration of the entire drainage area as a single unit,
estimation of flow at the most downstream point only,
the assumption that rainfall is uniformly distributed over the drainage area.

The Rational Formula reads:

Qp  0.28 C I A
Where
Qp= Peak runoff rate [m³/sec], C = Runoff coefficient
I = Rainfall intensity [mm/hr], A = Drainage area [km²]

The Rational Formula follows the assumption that:

the predicted peak discharge has the same probability of occurrence
(return period) as the used rainfall intensity (I),
the runoff coefficient (C) is constant during the rain storm, and
the recession time is equal to the time of rise.
 Sixth Approach: Modified Rational Formula
In the modified version of the Rational Formula, a storage coefficient is
included to account for a recession time larger than the time the
hydrograph takes to rise. The Modified Rational Formula reads:

Qp  0.28 Cs C I A
Where
Cs= Storage coefficient

The peak flood discharge in a catchment is reached when all parts of the
watershed are contributing to the outflow, i.e. at the time of
concentration:
Tc  0.0195 L0.77 S 0.385
……………… Kirpich/Ramser formula

Where
Tc= Time of concentration [min]
L= Length of main river [m]
S= Longitudinal or Distance weighted channel slope
(3) Flood Frequency Studies
Probability concepts are used to study the probable variations in flow
so that the design can be completed based on a calculated risk.

Flood Frequency
Likelihood of flood being equaled or exceeded.

A 10% frequency means that the flood has 10 out of 100 chances of
being equaled or exceeded.

Recurrence Interval (Tr)

Number of years in which a flood can be expected (equaled or
exceeded) once.
 Gumbel's Method
This method is useful for obtaining values of flood discharges for a high recurrence interval.

If Q1, Q2……… Qn comprise a series of extreme values of floods, the probability of

occurrence of a value equal to or less than Q is given by

P  ez (1)

y (2)
ze
(3)
y  a(Q  Q f )
Qf = value of flood discharge having highest frequency, and is given as:
(4)
Q f  Qav  0.45 x
Qav = average value of discharge

x 
 (Q 1  Qav ) 2  (Q2  Qav ) 2  .......... (Qn  Qav ) 2 (5)
N
1.28 (6)
a
x
The recurrence interval in years (Tr) for the discharge Q is given by

1 (7)
Tr =
1-P
Example # 1
For the 44 years data compute the probability of occurance
and Return period of flood using Gumbel method.
Soultion: [On Excel Sheet]
Example # 2
With the data given in following table estimate the probability that the
annual maximum discharge Q on the Guadalupe River will exceed 50,000
cfs at least once during the next three years.

Annual maximum discharges of the Guadalupe River near Victoria,

Texas, 1935-1978, in cfs

Year 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970

0 55900 13300 23700 9190
1 58000 12300 55800 9740
2 56000 28400 10800 58500
3 7710 11600 4100 33100
4 12300 8560 5720 25200
5 38500 22000 4950 15000 30200
6 179000 17900 1730 9790 14100
7 17200 46000 25300 70000 54500
8 25400 6970 58300 44300 12700
9 4940 20600 10100 15200
Solution: Exceeedence Reccurence
From 1935 to 1978 discharge of 50,000 cfs exceeds 9 times as shown Year Interval
in the table. (years)
First exceedence occurred in 1936 1936
Last exceedence occurred in 1977 4
Difference b/w first and last exceedences = 1977-1936 = 41 years 1940
For 9 exceedences there will be 8 recurrence intervals. 1
Therefore, Average Recurrence Interval, T = 41/8 = 5.125 years
1941
1
Probability of occurrence of an event in any observation, p = 1/T
Therefore, probability that discharge will equal or exceed 50,000 cfs, 1942
p ≈ 1/5.125 = 0.195 16
1958
P(Qmax ≥ Q at least once in N years) = 1 - (1 - p)N
3
1961
Therefore,
6
Probability that maximum discharge will equal or exceed 50,000 cfs at
least once in 3 years = 1 - (1 - 0.195)3 = 0.48 = 48% 1967
5
1972
5
1977
(4) Unit Hydrograph Method
Hydrograph
It is a graph showing variations of discharge with time at a particular point of
a stream.
Rainfall Excess or Effective Rainfall
It is the rainfall that is neither retained on land surface nor filtered to the soil.
Unit Hydrograph
“The unit hydrograph of a drainage basin is defined as a
hydrograph of direct runoff resulting from 1 cm of
effective rainfall applied uniformly over the basin area
at a uniform rate during a specified period of time.”.
e.g. a 3-hour unit hydrograph is a hydrograph produced
by surface runoff from a storm lasting for 3-hours and
yielding a rainfall excess of 1 cm spread on the entire
basin.
A unit hydrograph (UH) is the hypothetical unit
response of a watershed (in terms of runoff volume and
timing) to a unit input of rainfall.
As a UH is applicable only to the direct runoff
component of a hydrograph (i.e., surface runoff), a
separate determination of the base flow component is
required.
A UH is specific to a particular watershed, and specific to
a particular length of time corresponding to the duration
of the effective rainfall.
Assumptions
It is a common practice to ignore variations in rainfall
distribution, and to assume that the effective rainfall is
spread uniformly over the entire basin, throughout the
unit duration.
Unit hydrographs cannot give precise results and
should not be used for area larger than 8000 sq km.
Unit duration should not be more than the period of rise
or time of concentration.
Practically two identical storms are very difficult to
occur because they vary in
Duration,
Amount and
Areal distribution of rainfall.
 Unit Duration w.r.to Catchment Area
Catchment Area (km2) Unit Duration (hr)

50 – 250 2-4

250 – 2500 6 – 12

> 2500 12
Preparing a unit hydrograph from an isolated storm
First of all, the runoff rates (in cm/hr) resulted from the given storm is plotted
against time (in hours), so as to obtain Direct Runoff Hydrograph (DRH).

The total area (D) contained within this hydrograph is calculated by a planimeter or
by simpson‫׳‬s rule, etc. This will represent nothing but the volume of runoff in cm
depth of water on the basin.

The ordinates of this hydrograph (ABC) are divided by D so as to obtain the ordinates
of a unit hydrograph AB’C.

For example, suppose the area ABC is 3 cm depth of water, then the ordinates of unit
hydrograph can be obtained by dividing the ordinates of storm hydrograph by 3.
 The final step is to assign an effective storm duration from the study of the rainfall
records. Periods of low rainfall at the beginning and end of storm are omitted if
they do not contribute substantially to the RUNOFF.

 In the fig. the total duration of rainfall is 15 hours, but still it can be assumed to
have an effective duration equal to 8 hours. In this way, the number of durations
can be reduced, and the various storms of different durations can be assigned the
same unit duration .
 Unit storms are therefore not the storms of same durations. But they are the
storms of the like durations.
Unit Hydrograph Theory

• A unit hydrograph (UH) is the hypothetical unit response of a

watershed (in terms of runoff volume and timing) to a unit
input of rainfall.
• It can be defined as the direct runoff hydrograph (DRH)
resulting from one unit (e.g., one cm or one inch) of effective
rainfall occurring uniformly over that watershed at a uniform
rate over a unit period of time.
• As a UH is applicable only to the direct runoff component of
a hydrograph (i.e., surface runoff), a separate determination
of the base flow component is required.
• A UH is specific to a particular watershed, and specific to a
particular length of time corresponding to the duration of
the effective rainfall.
• The UH is specified as being the 1-hour, 6-hour, or 24-hour
UH, or any other length of time up to the time of
concentration of direct runoff at the watershed outlet.
• Thus, for a given watershed, there can be many unit
hydrographs, each one corresponding to a different duration
of effective rainfall.
• The UH technique provides a practical and relatively easy-to-
apply tool for quantifying the effect of a unit of rainfall on the
corresponding runoff from a particular drainage basin.
• UH theory assumes that a watershed's runoff response is
linear and time-invariant, and that the effective rainfall occurs
uniformly over the watershed.
• In the real world, none of these assumptions are strictly true.
Nevertheless, application of UH methods typically yields a
reasonable approximation of the flood response of natural
watersheds.
The definition of a unit hydrograph assumes the
following:

1. The unit hydrograph represents the lumped response of the

catchment to a unit rainfall excess of unit duration to produce a
direct runoff hydrograph. It relates only the direct runoff to
rainfall excess. Hence the volume of water contained in the unit
hydrograph must be equal to the rainfall excess. Since a rainfall
excess of 1cm is considered by definition, the area under the
unit hydrograph is equal to a volume given by 1cm depth of
water over the catchment area.
2. The rainfall is considered to have an average intensity of
excess rainfall of 1/D cm/h for the duration D-h of the storm
3. The distribution of the storm is considered to be uniform all
over the catchment
Assumptions in the Unit Hydrograph Theory
1. Time Invariance: This implies that the direct runoff response
for a given effective rainfall (ER) in a catchment is time invariant
i.e. it is always the same irrespective of when it occurs.
2. Linear Response: The direct runoff response to rainfall excess is
assumed to be linear.
• If the rainfall excess in a duration D hours is r times the unit
depth, the ordinates of the resulting DRH will be r times the
corresponding ordinates of the D hour unit hydrograph. Since
the area under the D hour DRH should be r times the area
under the corresponding D hour unit hydrograph, the base of
the DRH will be the same as that of the unit hydrograph.
• The assumption of linear response enables the use of the
method of superposition to derive DRHs.
• If two rainfall excess of D hour duration each occur
consecutively, their combined effect (i.e. the resulting DRH) is
obtained by superposing the respective DRHs, care being
taken to account for proper sequence of events
Application of Unit Hydrograph
1. The DRH in a catchment due to a given storm can be
determined if an appropriate unit hydrograph is available.
2. Let it be assumed that D-h unit hydrograph and the
storm hyetograph are available.
3. The initial losses and infiltration losses are estimated
and deducted from the storm hyetograph to obtain
Effective Rainfall Hydrograph (ERH).
4. The ERH is then divided into M blocks of D-h duration
each.
5. The rainfall excess in each D-h duration is then
operated upon the unit hydrograph successively to get
various DRH curves. The ordinates of these DRHs are
suitably lagged to obtain the proper time sequence and
are then added at each time interval to obtain the
required net DRH due to the storm.
Unit Duration w.r.to Catchment Area
Catchment Area Unit Duration (hr)
(km2)
50 – 250 2-4

250 – 2500 6 – 12

> 2500 12
Derivation of a Unit Hydrograph from an Isolated
Storm Hydrograph

• It is depicted from the current example we are

solving.
Problem
Courtesy: A TB of Hydrology by P J R Reddy

Derive the unit hydrograph for a drainage basin of area 104

km2 from the observed runoff hydrograph given below.
The ordinates of the rainfall mass curve which produced
the above runoff are as given below.
Solution:
From the given storm data, the rainfall hyetograph is
constructed adopting a time interval of 2 hr. The rainfall
intensities of this hyetograph are calculated as under:
Time Cum. Rainfall Rainfall in 2hrs Rainfall Intensity
Date
hr cm cm cm/hr
2 0.0 1.5 0.75
4 1.5 1.5 0.75
6 3.0 7.5 3.75
10-Jun 8 10.5 8.5 4.25
10 19.0 1.0 0.5
12 20.0 0.0 0
14 20.0
The hyetograph is shown above the hydrograph in Fig. The point
of rise A is easily located at the end of 6th hr on June 10. The
time distance in N days between the peak of hydrograph and the
end of direct runoff is
N = 0.827 A0.2
= 0.827 (104)0.2
= 2.0937 days
= 50.25 hr.
But from the plotted hydrograph this appears to be too long and
hence the end of direct runoff C is arbitrarily fixed at 16th hour
on June 11. The base flow line ABC is then constructed by joining
A and C by a straight line.
The ordinates of the direct runoff hydrograph obtained as the
difference between the total runoff and base flow are given in
col. 5 of the below table:
 0.36∆𝑡 𝑄
Since, 𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑡ℎ 𝑜𝑓 𝐷𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑅𝑢𝑛𝑜𝑓𝑓, 𝑑 =
𝐴
Putting, Δt = 2hr, ∑Q = 1658.4 km2 and A = 104 km2, yields d = 11.48
cm.
𝐷𝑅𝑂(𝑐𝑜𝑙.5)
Hence, Ordinates of UH (col. 6)=
𝑑
To fix the duration of unit hydrograph, by trial and error φ-index line
of 1.13 cm/h is drawn which would give an effective rainfall exactly
equal to 11.48 cm.
From the figure the duration of effective rainfall is found to be 4 h,
i.e. the unit hydrograph derived for the basin is 4 h unit hydrograph,
usually abbreviated as 4 h. U.H.
As seen from the hyetograph the effective rainfall is not uniformly
distributed within its duration. However, the small variation of 0.5
cm/h in the rainfall intensity is considered to be insignificant.
Problem
In a typical 4 hr. storm producing 5 cm of run off from a basin, the flow
in the stream are as follow:

Time Flow
(hours) (cumecs)
0 0.000
2 1.200
4 4.050
6 6.750
8 5.670
12 3.375
16 1.350
20 0.000

(a) Plot the unit hydrograph of runoff for this storm.

(b) Estimate, as accurately as possible, the peak flow and the time of its
occurrence, in a flood created by an 8 hours storm, which produces 2.5 cm
of effective rainfall during the 1st four hours & 3.75 cm of effective rainfall
during the 2nd four hours. Assume the base flow to be negligible.
Solution
T Ordinate of Ordinate of Ordinate of 1st Ordinate of 2nd Total 8 hr
(hr) strom unit hydrograph 4 hr 4 hr hydrograph
hydrograph of 1 cm hydrograph hydrograph ordinates in
of 5 cm producing producing 3.75 Cumecs
2.5 cm rain cm rain
(1) (2) (3) = (2) / 5 (4) = (3) * 2.5 (5) = (3) * 3.75 (6) = (4) + (5)

0 0 0 0 -- 0
2 1.22 0.24 0.61 -- 0.61
4 4.05 0.81 2.02 0 2.02
6 6.75 1.35 3.37 0.90 4.27
8 5.67 1.15 2.83 3.03 5.86
10 -- -- 2.26 5.06 7.32
12 3.375 0.68 1.69 4.31 6.00
16 1.35 0.27 0.67 2.55 3.32
20 0 0 0 1.01 1.01
24 -- -- -- 0 0
Figure showing: (1) Storm Hydrograph (2) 5 hour-Unit hydrograph
Figure showing: (1) Storm Hydrograph for 1st four hours;
(2) Storm Hydrograph for 2nd four hours; and
(3) Storm Hydrograph for total 8 hours