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Estimation of Peak / Flood Discharge
Estimation of Peak / Flood Discharge
of
Estimation methods:
Past flood marks on ancient monuments, etc., along river banks are located.
Q = CAn
where
Q = flood discharge, A = catchment area, C = flood coefficient
and n = flood index
This includes formulae of the same form as the first approach, i.e.
Q = CAn
S
Q Aci
A
where
i = expected average rainfall
S = average slope of the watershed
Examples:
Burkli-Ziegler formula and
McMath formula
Fourth Approach: Fuller’s formula
QT C f A0.8 1 0.8 log T
p
where
QT Peak 24-hr flood with a frequency of T years
p
Qp 0.28 Cs C I A
Where
Cs= Storage coefficient
The peak flood discharge in a catchment is reached when all parts of the
watershed are contributing to the outflow, i.e. at the time of
concentration:
Tc 0.0195 L0.77 S 0.385
……………… Kirpich/Ramser formula
Where
Tc= Time of concentration [min]
L= Length of main river [m]
S= Longitudinal or Distance weighted channel slope
(3) Flood Frequency Studies
Probability concepts are used to study the probable variations in flow
so that the design can be completed based on a calculated risk.
Flood Frequency
Likelihood of flood being equaled or exceeded.
A 10% frequency means that the flood has 10 out of 100 chances of
being equaled or exceeded.
P ez (1)
y (2)
ze
(3)
y a(Q Q f )
Qf = value of flood discharge having highest frequency, and is given as:
(4)
Q f Qav 0.45 x
Qav = average value of discharge
x
(Q 1 Qav ) 2 (Q2 Qav ) 2 .......... (Qn Qav ) 2 (5)
N
1.28 (6)
a
x
The recurrence interval in years (Tr) for the discharge Q is given by
1 (7)
Tr =
1-P
Example # 1
For the 44 years data compute the probability of occurance
and Return period of flood using Gumbel method.
Soultion: [On Excel Sheet]
Example # 2
With the data given in following table estimate the probability that the
annual maximum discharge Q on the Guadalupe River will exceed 50,000
cfs at least once during the next three years.
50 – 250 2-4
250 – 2500 6 – 12
> 2500 12
Preparing a unit hydrograph from an isolated storm
First of all, the runoff rates (in cm/hr) resulted from the given storm is plotted
against time (in hours), so as to obtain Direct Runoff Hydrograph (DRH).
The total area (D) contained within this hydrograph is calculated by a planimeter or
by simpson׳s rule, etc. This will represent nothing but the volume of runoff in cm
depth of water on the basin.
The ordinates of this hydrograph (ABC) are divided by D so as to obtain the ordinates
of a unit hydrograph AB’C.
For example, suppose the area ABC is 3 cm depth of water, then the ordinates of unit
hydrograph can be obtained by dividing the ordinates of storm hydrograph by 3.
The final step is to assign an effective storm duration from the study of the rainfall
records. Periods of low rainfall at the beginning and end of storm are omitted if
they do not contribute substantially to the RUNOFF.
In the fig. the total duration of rainfall is 15 hours, but still it can be assumed to
have an effective duration equal to 8 hours. In this way, the number of durations
can be reduced, and the various storms of different durations can be assigned the
same unit duration .
Unit storms are therefore not the storms of same durations. But they are the
storms of the like durations.
Unit Hydrograph Theory
250 – 2500 6 – 12
> 2500 12
Derivation of a Unit Hydrograph from an Isolated
Storm Hydrograph
Time Flow
(hours) (cumecs)
0 0.000
2 1.200
4 4.050
6 6.750
8 5.670
12 3.375
16 1.350
20 0.000
(b) Estimate, as accurately as possible, the peak flow and the time of its
occurrence, in a flood created by an 8 hours storm, which produces 2.5 cm
of effective rainfall during the 1st four hours & 3.75 cm of effective rainfall
during the 2nd four hours. Assume the base flow to be negligible.
Solution
T Ordinate of Ordinate of Ordinate of 1st Ordinate of 2nd Total 8 hr
(hr) strom unit hydrograph 4 hr 4 hr hydrograph
hydrograph of 1 cm hydrograph hydrograph ordinates in
of 5 cm producing producing 3.75 Cumecs
2.5 cm rain cm rain
(1) (2) (3) = (2) / 5 (4) = (3) * 2.5 (5) = (3) * 3.75 (6) = (4) + (5)
0 0 0 0 -- 0
2 1.22 0.24 0.61 -- 0.61
4 4.05 0.81 2.02 0 2.02
6 6.75 1.35 3.37 0.90 4.27
8 5.67 1.15 2.83 3.03 5.86
10 -- -- 2.26 5.06 7.32
12 3.375 0.68 1.69 4.31 6.00
16 1.35 0.27 0.67 2.55 3.32
20 0 0 0 1.01 1.01
24 -- -- -- 0 0
Figure showing: (1) Storm Hydrograph (2) 5 hour-Unit hydrograph
Figure showing: (1) Storm Hydrograph for 1st four hours;
(2) Storm Hydrograph for 2nd four hours; and
(3) Storm Hydrograph for total 8 hours