Royal University of Phnom Penh Name: Ly MouyLeang

Department of Tourism Lecturer: Nhem Sochea

Subject: Risk and Crisis Management for Tourism

Reading Assignment

1. Aliperti, G., Cruz A.M. (2018). Journal of Tourism, Culture and Territorial Development:
Risk Communication to Tourists: Towards the Definition of a Research Agenda for a
more Effective Disaster Preparedness in Japan, vol 9(17), pp. 3-7.
Retrieved from https://almatourism.unibo.it/article/view/8267/8193
2. N.Rittichainuwat, B., Chakraborty, G. (2012). TRAVEL MOTIVATIONS OF THAI
TOURISTS DURING ECONOMIC RECESSION, vol 7(1), pp. 3-7.
Retrieved from https://tourismtaat.siam.edu/images/magazine/m7b2/4.pdf
3. Chan, S., Fahlevi, H. (2019). Earth and Environmental Science: What are determining
factors of loyalty to Tsunami affected tourism destination?.
Retrieved from
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334493919_What_are_determining_factors_of_
tourist_loyalty_to_tsunami_affected_tourism_destination
4. Shaw, G., Saayman, M., Saayman, A. (2012). South African Journal of Economic and
Management Sciences: Identifying risks facing the South African tourism industry, vol
15(2)
Retrieved from http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2222-
34362012000200005
5. Jin, X., Qu, M., Bao, J. (2019). Elsevier Public Health Emergency Collection: Impact of
crisis events on Chinese outbound tourist flow: A framework for post-events growth, vol
74, pp. 334-344.
Retrieved from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7115362/
6. Ooi, C.A., Hooy, C.W., Som, A.P.M. (2013). International Journal of Business Society:
Tourism Crisis and State Level Tourism Demand in Malaysia, vol 14(3), pp. 376-389.
Retrieved from http://www.ijbs.unimas.my/repository/pdf/Vol14No3paper4.pdf
7. Zenker, S., Kock, F. (2020). Elsevier Public Health Emergency Collection: The corona
virus pandemic- A critical discussion of a tourism research agenda, vol 81.
Retrieved fromhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7272331/
8. Sungip, N, Kamarudin, F., K., A., K., et all. (2018). International Journal of engineering
and Technology: The impact of Monsoon flood phenomenon on tourism sector in
Kelantan, Malaysia: A review, vol 7 pp. 34-37.
Retrieved from https://sci-hub.tw/10.14419/ijet.v7i4.34.23577
9. Chin, M., Y, Foo, L., P., et all. (2020). Current Issues in Tourism: The impact of COVID-
19 on tourism industry in Malaysia, vol 1(5).
Retrieved from https://sci-hub.tw/10.1080/13683500.2020.1777951
10. Mikuic, J., et al. (2016). Journal of Destination Marketing & Management: Strategic
crisis management in tourism: An application of integrated risk management principles
to the Croatian tourism industry.
Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2016.08.001
 Risk in Communication for Effective Disaster Preparedness

info insuffiency
Disaster alert
informational subject norms
Warning
Mobile Apps+Free WIFI Disaster Preparedness
Evacuating a.Tourists' risk info seeking relevant channel belief

Information perceive info

perceive hazard characteristics

Methodology
Correct message, languages&timing Gaps in Literature b.Cross Culture Ananlysis delivery safety => Reputation

Public Aawareness Communication

c. The role of tourism suppliers Suppliers to Tourists
Educating Timing

Motivating to act Risk In Communication

Expert and lay
Reaching aggreement

Obtain Trust d.Comparision of mental models Evaluate & Compare suppliers&tourists

 Sex, Age, Status, Career,Education, traveling background, purpose Profile of Respondents

Resort recreation 0.81

History & culture 0.82

Discounts 0.84 Underlying Demensions of Travel Motivation

Summary
Safe&Short Travel 0.76 Confirmatory factor analysis
Result
Summer Holidays 0.77

Novelty 0.58 Economic Recession => Unemployment

Overview
Discount Seekers (Cluster1) Political Instability => International Tourists backed off

Resort Holiday Seekers (Cluster2) Cluster Analysis

Novelty
Novelty Seekers (Cluster3)
Thailand Price Discount
Travel motivation
Discount, Short Distance (value highest) Economic Short Distance
Discount Seekers
Summer Holiday (lowest) Recession Relaxation

HighestRelaxation & Recreational activities (highest

Travel Behavior (Tourists' Plans)
Exploring & Sightseeing (lowest) Resort Holiday
Processes Travel Motivation (Address travel motivation attributes)
Spend Wisely (balance work&leisure)
Demographic Profile (Establish Demographic Profile)
Western style of travel
Novelty Discussion&Conclusion
Highly interest in culture

Boost Demand: price disoucnt, package deals, blitz advertising

Discount: A classic promotion
Increase Demand (middle income): affordable low cost airfare

Reestablish Tourists' Confidence to travel

Raising public awareness Safety is importance

Create safe travel environment

 Determining factors of tourist loyalty to Tsunami Tourism

3potential determinants

Disc
Provide evidence for the development

u ssi
Increase Toursits loyalty Measure the validity the image of Tsunami attraction

on&
Gain satifaction Test the hypothesis perceived value

Con

Proc

Ove
clu
Earn Value Test the indriect effect Tourist Satifaction

rvie
sses
sion

w
R es

Ob je
ult&
Vadlidity&Goodness of fit Tsunami Toursim

c tive
Dis
Analysis of strutural equation modeling Customer Loyalty

s
c u
Mediation Effect Customer Satifaction

ssio
n Customer perceived value
Relations among variables
hypothesis Development
 factor1: operational risk

factor2: environmental (nature)

factor3: affordability and safety

facotr4: crime&political factors

Identify vaious risk categories and the items
factor5: national image&competiveness Summary(table4) Factor ananlysis Identifying Risks Facing The South African Tourism
Factor loading from high to low
factor6: business insufficiencies Industry identify the risks deemed important by supply side

factor7: health risk Overview contstruct a matrix for assessing the virous risks identified

factor8: economic risk determine different sectors of the industry

factor9: transport risk Result

those that influence by demestic
i. tour operators&travel agents are more inclined than other Risks in the tourism industry
businesses those that influence by international

ii. Travel agents are less affected than lodges by health-associated The flow of risks (figure1)
risks
Nature
iii. travel agents are more inclined than other tourism businesses ANOVA and Tukey's post hoc tests
Crime
iv. travel agents are more vulnerable to risks associatd with Facts
Health
business insufficiencies
Risk Categories (table1) Political factors
v. travel agents rate tranpsort risks as more important than do B&D
and guesthouses Economic factors

Technology
Step1: Risk identification Socio-demgraphic factos
Step2: Risk assessment
Risk management process (figure2)
Type of business
Step3: Risk response development Risks of S.African Tourism Industry
Step4: Risk response control locations

Regular (>80% chance) SectionA education level of owners

Emperical survey
Probable (60-79%) determining&evaluating business risks

Can happen (40-59%) key factors during determing risk

Probabilit&consequences of occurence (table6)
Low likelihood (20-39%) SectionB 57 statements related to risk intensity
Implication for risk management
Rare (6-19%) 800/1200 members of tourism industry did questionairs

Highly unlikely (<5%) Tour operators

Processes
Highly severity risk (8-11) Guesthouses

Medium severity risk (5-7) Risk assessment matrix (figure3) B&D establishments
Sampling and survey method
Low severity risk (1-4) Sample and Response (table2) Travel agents

Risk assessment tratrix Lodges

Probability of occurence Risk assessment matrix for travel agents (figure4) Hotels

Consequences Others

Capturing the data, basic data analysis and SPSS

Statical methods
identify risks of tourism businesses Proincial Distribution (Table3)
how tourism buinesses rate the different risks

results of the 9 risk factors

Conclusion
co-operation between the industry and training institutions

strategies to deal with risks

Analyse the probability

 Impact of crisis events on Chinese outbound tourist flow:
A framwork for post-events growth

Overview Causes & Effects

Chinese Outbound concerning Crisis Events and Tourism

Events that generate tourism flows Differ by type, scale, duration, time and location
Types of Events

Political Demensions affect tourism demand Events

Impact of crisis events on Chinese outflows to Japan&S.Korea economic recession

Research Questions oil/energy issues

Types of studies political issues

health issues

natural disasters
Study One
terroism
Research Method
Tourism Industry's preparedness&responsibility
Stage1
crisis&risks management
Y=TC+S+1 (additive model)
Y=Time series, TC=Trend-cycle, S=seasonal element impact estimation
Y=TCxSx1 (multiplicative model)
forecasting
Stage2
recovery strategies
LS=Level Shift, TC=Temporary Change, AO=Additive outlier Identification of outliers
security
Results
Estimating the impact of crisis events on tourism demand
Estimation of the impact of crisis events on Chinese Travelling to Japan
SARIMA model
Financial crisis 49.2% (2009)
Outlier test of travelling pattern ARIMA model
Fukushima Earthquake&Nuclear 41.7% (2011) Loss rate
The impact X-12-ARIMA model
Diaoyo Islands incident 40% (2012)
TRAMO/SEAT model
Estimation of the impact of crisis events on Chinese travel to S.Korea
Chinese Travelling to Japan&S.Korea 2005-2017
MERS epidemic 68.7% (2015) Outlier test of travelling pattern
Loss rate Chinese travelling to Japan
THAAD inident 50% (2017) The impact
Chinese travelling to S.Korea

200-2015 high rate

Study Two
2015-2016 slowed down
Reserch Method 2017 dropped then regained back
The flow of Chinese tourists, business operations piror

the destination market&product characteristics Qualitative method

Main topical areas Conclusion
Tourism enterprise operating model in region Quantiative method
Using both quantiative&qualitative
Other factors influencing
Sound International relations are iprtant for lilateral tourist flows&development
Result
Governments need o maintain a sound bilateral politcal relation
Infrmation&media infuence in natural disaster&public health crisis
Figure5 Media can be crucial in the impact of crisis
Government plicy&media influence in politcal crisis events
Cancellation (fear, health concern,physical risk, social pressure)
Other factors associated with detrimental impact or recovery

The visa policy

Travel&transportation mode

Destination&tourism products

Destination market structure

Cultural export

Development stage

Source market
 TOURISM CRISES
AND STATE LEVEL
Overview Facts
TOURISM DEMAND
IN MALYSIA Studies on Malayian Tourism Deman
2009
2000 examine relationship
23.6million tourists
Tourism Deman
16.7billion USD
10.2% of GDP GDP, CIP, Exchange rate, Tourism crisis

top10 of highest international tourists Macroeconomic factors

2009 affected by relative price
2010 affected by income&price
Asia based crisis event on Malysia tourism sector

Sars 2003

tourists 13.2 to 10.5 million

17% of income
40% airline
30% hotel
Indonesia Tsunami 2004

68 people died
loss 8million USD of physical properties
island resorts tourists declined
20% cancellation
Bali bomblings 2005 (information unknown)

Results Processes

The impacts of crises on Tourism Demand Marcoeconomic factors=income

included to 2 models (formulas)
none-asean=>exchange rate relative price=exchange rate

Asean=>income factors (+)

both=>price (---)
The impacts of crises on sate-level

6states strongly affected

The impacts of individual crisis on state-level

12states affected by 3crisis events (non-Asean tourists)

Sars 8states
Tusnami&Bali bomblings 6states

Conclusion

target on ASEAN tourists to recoup for the loss from non-Asean

promotion upon lower cost

 The coronavirus pandemic – A critical
discussion of a tourism research agenda

Boarders are closed

Cruise Vessels are docked 75million jobs at risk

Summary Overview
Air fleets are grounded Lose 2.1 trillion USD

Hotels, resturants&tourism sights are shut down

SARS

The bird flue

Familiar cases on smaller scale
EBOLA

Influenza Pendemics
Crisis&Disasters
Earthquake, Flooding, Pendemics

Natureal Disasters human-made disasters are often rather crises and

Disasters Summary
Wars, Political/Economic crisis some natural disasters are man-made

Human-made disasters

Using Chaos Theory & System Theory

Blend of several disaster

Crisis typologies

Natural Disaster

Socio-potical crisis The Level of complexity

Combination of
Economic crisis

Tourism demand crisis

Lack in understanding how they affect each other

Austria, Italy, Spain, New York or parts of China

Change in destination image
Influence Health & Safety concern Suffering from high infection rate Potential Corona research paths
Collectivistic (choose domestic over foreign destinations)

more alert of & avoid crowdedness Change in Tourist behavior

Xenophobia (ethnocentrism/racism)

Less welcoming toward tourists

Change in resident behavior
Group bias (tourists VS residents)

Businesses are suffered

Change in tourism industry
Social distancing rules

2 scenarios

Old businesses are shrinking

Long term & indirect effects
Opportunity for New business models

a change in our world-view

Conclusion tourism has to be understood in the greater global economic &
political context
 The massive flood events in Malaysia history (2014)

Overview Flood phenomenon & Continuous rainfall overflowing

Frequently affected by climate change barriers

Cancelllation => tourists declined

Tourism Landscapes, attractions, facilities, infrastrucutre
Hugely affected tourism industry in Kelantan
Loss of biological diversity
Environment Affected the quality of water and useful soil
Pollution, Rubbish

Impacts interupt business (income declines)

Difficulty of daily life activities
transportation (going to school/work)
Casued deaths, injuries, diseases
Destruction of properties

The Impact of Monsoon Flood on Tourism Social concern Public Utilities

Sector in Kelantan, Malaysia Livestock

Recovery

Weather
Choice of destination Service provision
Destination
Conclusion
Human behavior in exploring nature
Causes of flood
Consequences of human-created innovation
The amount of damage is expected to increase every year
 COVID-19 was confirmed on 25th January
Overview
6002 cases, 102 deaths (end of April)

3 major airlines encounter crisis (high risk of bankruptcy)

Airlines Foriengers are not allowed to enter to country
1flight/week (not more than 75% of passengers)
170,085 Room Cancellations (11Jan-16Mar)
Loss around 16million USD in revenue
Hotel businesses
Estimation of loss in revenue on whole hotel sector by June
772million USD
$140/month
Wage-subsidy programme
Maximun of 3months
The impact of COVID-19 on tourism industry Impacts $140/month
Unpaid leave force
in Malaysia Maxinum of 6months
Unemployed workers
Claim employee insurance
Economic Stimilus Package Salaries under $900
double taxes reduction
15% discount for electricity bill
Incentive to business Postponement of income tax for tourism business related
Banks are required to provide financial relief to business for 6months
Others

Hugely impacts on Malaysia's tourism industry

Conclusion Tourists decline

Government imposing travel restrictions & bans
 14.4million arrivals
72.6million overnights
Arrivals &income (2015)
7.96billion Euros (increase
Overview
18.% of GDP
Terrorist attacks in Tunisia & Turkey
Crisis events
Mass imirgations from Syria & Iraq

Political
Economic
Social
SWOT
Technological

Processes Legal
Enviromental
Strategic crisis management in tourism: Financial Measure
An application of intergrated risk management Competing Measures
Probability of scale
principles to the Croatian tourism industry
Evaluating each risk

Bad tourist experience

Terrorist attacks Highest occurence
Bad weather

Ecological incidents High

Natural Disasters
Short Term Risks & Results Disease outbreaks & pendemics Medium
Political & Societal instability
Generating market purchasing power
Exchange rate
Low
Feul price
More difficult border crossings