DR.

RAM MANOHAR LOHIYA NATIONAL LAW UNIVERSITY,

LUCKNOW

SESSION: 2020-21

FINAL DRAFT: MEDIA AND LAW

EXIT POLLS UNDER THE AMBIT OF MEDIA LAW

UNDER THE SUPERVISION OF SUBMITTED BY

Ms. ANKITA YADAV ADITYA PRATAP SINGH

ASSISTANT PROFESSOR (LAW) ENROLL NO: 160101009

Dr. RMLNLU, LUCKNOW B.A. LL.B. (Hons.) SEMESTER IX

 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Any project completed or done in isolation is unthinkable. This project, although prepared by
me, is a culmination of efforts of a lot of people. Firstly, I would like to thank our Professor
for Media Laws, Ms. Ankita Yadav for his valuable suggestions towards the making of this
project.

Further to that, I would also like to express my gratitude towards our seniors who were a lot
of help for the completion of this project. The contributions made by my classmates and
friends are, definitely, worth mentioning.

I would like to express my gratitude towards the library staff for their help also. I would also
like to thank the persons interviewed by me without whose support this project would not
have been completed.

ADITYA PRATAP SINGH

160101009
 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Method of Research
The researcher has adopted a purely doctrinal method of research. The researcher has made
extensive use of the available resources at library of the Chanakya National Law University
and also the internet sources.

Scope and Limitations

Though the study of the this topic is an immense project and pages can be written over the
topic but due to certain restrictions and limitations the researcher has not been able to deal
with the topic in great detail.

Sources of Data
The following secondary sources of data have been used in the project-

1. Cases

2. Books

3. Journals

Method of Writing
The method of writing followed in the course of this research paper is primarily analytical.

Mode of Citation
The researcher has followed the bluebook method of citation throughout the course of this
research paper.
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT.................................................................................2

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY......................................................................3

Introduction...........................................................................................................5

Meaning of Exit, Entrance and Opinion Poll........................................................7

Guidelines and Regulatory Framework for Exit Polls........................................13

2014 Lok Sabha Elections – The accuracy of poll predictions..........................20

Conclusion..........................................................................................................25

Bibliography.......................................................................................................27
INTRODUCTION

The freedom of speech and expression has been characterized as “the very life of civil
liberty” in the Constituent Assembly Debates. 1 The freedom of the press, while not
recognized as a separate freedom under Fundamental Rights, is folded into the freedom of
speech and expression.2The Supreme Court has described this freedom as the “ark of the
covenant of democracy”.3 The freedom of the press serves the larger purpose of the right of
the people to be informed of a broad spectrum of facts, views and opinions. It is the medium
through which people gain access to new information and ideas, an essential component of a
functioning democracy. Thus, “[t]he survival and flowering of Indian democracy owes a
great deal to the freedom and vigor of our press.”4

The media is vital in the role it plays in uncovering the truth and rousing public opinion,
especially in the face of wrongdoing and corruption. Numerous examples exist where the
media has played a central role in revealing corrupt practices and shaping the demand for
accountability and good governance.

The importance of media in a democracy becomes particularly evident when it comes to

challenges surrounding media and the elections. The Law Commission, while considering
issues related to electoral reforms, increasingly felt the need to address media-related issues
connected to elections, such as the phenomenon of paid news and opinion polls. However
issues relating to the media are not solely limited to elections. Thus this research paper puts
forward several wide-ranging issues relating to the media generally to elicit responses
thereon.

In India today, we have every reason to celebrate our news media. However, as society
evolves, new challenges are constantly thrown up that require consideration. Technology has
expanded our horizons, but also brought with it, new concerns. Recent events related to the
news media, such as the proliferation and subsequent curbing of social media, the paid news
phenomenon, fake sting operations, trial by media, breach of privacy, etc. pose a set of

1
Constituent Assembly Debates: Official Report, (Delhi, 1946-1950), VII, p. 18.
2
 BrijBhushan and Another vs. The State of Delhi, AIR 1950 SC 129; Sakal Papers (P) Ltd vs. Union of India,
AIR 1962 SC 305.
3
Bennett Coleman & Co. v Union Of India, AIR 1973 SC 106.
4
Amartya Sen, “The glory and the blemishes of the Indian news media”, The Hindu, April 25, 2012
anxieties. As Lord Justice Leveson wrote in his path-breaking report on ‘Culture, Practice
and Ethics of the Press’ in Great Britain,

“With these rights (of press freedoms) come responsibilities to the public interest:
to respect the truth, to obey the law and to uphold the rights and liberties of individuals.”5

To this end, the research paper raises some select concerns, and poses a set of questions that
will help foster a larger public debate amongst stakeholders and the citizenry to shape the
approach which should be adopted in tackling these issues.

OBJECTIVES

1. To study the prime issues surrounding the use and application of exit polls;
2. To study whether the exit polls predict the election results right;
3. To analyze the methods followed by certain prime agencies in conducting exit polls;
4. To examine whether the exit polls lead to any surprises;
5. To study the level of criticism, controversy and errors following the outcome of exit
poll;

METHODOLOGY

For the purpose of research as a whole, the researcher has adopted doctrinal method of
research. Content analysis method was adopted to analyze the survey findings of exit poll
surveys conducted by the research agencies and media organizations in the 2014 Lok Sabha
elections in India. Content analysis is a technique that provides opportunity to study the
content published or broadcast in media in terms of news reports and news analysis. The
content analysis method helps in the analysis of the methodology adopted by the researchers
of exit polls and the technique used to analyze the data. The study explores the different
methods adopted by the researchers of exit polls to understand the degree of accuracy in their
predictions. Exit polls are all about making predictions in the elections based on the opinion
collected from voters post voting. The content analysis helps in understanding the method of
study, sample design and techniques of analysis in exit polls published in the mainstream
media.

Lord Justice Leveson, ‘An Inquiry into the Culture, Practices and Ethics of the Press’ (Leveson Inquiry Report,
5

London: November 2012).

MEANING OF EXIT, ENTRANCE AND OPINION POLL

There are various ways of feeling the pulse of voters or study the reasons as to why they
prefer or reject a particular candidate or a party. All the four types of surveys have different
purposes and approach. An exit poll of an election is gathering of votes polled after voter
comes out of the actual polling station or meeting the voters in their residence after the
polling is over. The information collected at the polling station from the individual voters is
analyzed presuming that the voters have given accurate information about their vote to the
field investigators of the research agencies. Exit poll is diagonally opposite of opinion poll. If
the voters are asked to whom they intend to vote, then it is called the opinion poll. If the poll
is conducted before the voters cast their vote, it is called an entrance poll.6

When it comes to post poll survey, according to the Centre for the Study of Developing
Societies (CSDS) of New Delhi, it is a state of art method of survey which it has developed.
In this method, voters are interviewed after the polling is completed at their residences and
not at the polling booths or on the street. It is done in a relaxed environment. It is an exercise
to read the pulse of voters and also to go beyond that – as to why a particular candidate/party
became the preference.

In the recent years, newspapers and television houses are opting for exit polls. May be
because the opinion polls have gone horribly wrong in the past and at the same time, the exit
polls have been nearer to the reality conducted by certain agencies.

The surveys are conducted mainly to kill the curiosity of readers/ viewers. In case of TV
stations, the telecast of exit polls or general survey results increase the Television Rating
Point (TRP) tremendously and thus also brings in revenue through advertisements. Duration
of the telecast of the results turns into prime time. The early indication of the results before
the actual results are announced also lead to betting with punters becoming hyper active.
Share markets too respond to the poll predictions.

There were instances when the media organizations which were controlled financially by
politicians or political parties, tweaking the survey results to woo undecided voters or to
create euphoria for the party/candidate of their choice. But this tendency was checked to a
considerable extent during the LS 2014 season because the outcome of the surveys was

6
V S Rama Devi, How India Votes- Election Laws, Practice and Procedure, 3rd Edition, 2014
announced only after the final phase of voting. This is being done as per the directions issued
by the Election Commission of India.

Another purpose of exit poll (or the survey) is to find or to get a rough indication to the
degree of election fraud. The Venezuelan recall referendum in 2004 and the Ukrainian
presidential election 2004 are the recent examples of the poll fraud. Marcel van Dam, a Dutch
sociologist and former politician, is credited with having designed the exit poll. It was first
conducted during the Dutch legislative elections in 1967. It is not that exit polls are fool-
proof. There will be margin of error. The example for showing the error is the 1992 United
Kingdom general elections. Two exit polls were conducted and both had predicted a hung
parliament. But the actual results made way for the Conservative Party to become the ruling
party. However, the party did not have good majority. Investigations revealed that the
methodology was unscientific. Differential response rates, inadequate demographic data and
poor choice of sampling points were among the reasons for the exit polls to off the mark. In
the US, the National Election Pool comprising ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, Fox News and NBC
conduct a joint exit poll. In the US, exit polls have faced with criticism and the prime reason
was that the results were in public domain before the voting. Such announcements could
influence both positively and negatively on the voting pattern and finally the results.

In India too announcement of exit poll results much before the final phase of voting had come
under criticism. The resistance had come mainly from political parties itself. The allegations
were that surveys were not scientific. They were branded as partisan in nature and collection
of fictitious data to favor a party or an individual. However, over a period, conducting the
survey has become more scientific and thus credibility has improved to certain extent. Media
houses and research organizations have become cautious enough not to lose their reputation
by doing a hotchpotch job or churning out data to suit someone’s requirement.7

INDIA AND ELECTION SURVEYS

In India till sometimes back and we can say that before the emergence of 24 hours news
channel in India poll surveys were just of academic importance, and not much credence or
valued time was devoted to analyze them. But with changing times and media's reach,
especially with the emergence of news channels, they became more and more acceptable and
recognizable. They have now become a part of every election. Psephology, the formal study
of elections, is only a little older than independent India. In India some valuable research
7
P. Rathna Swamy, Handbook on Election Law, Lexis Nexis
completed on voting, nationally and locally. It ranges from the pioneer work of W.H. Morris
Jones, J.O.Field and Myron Wiener to more specialized studies such as those by A.H.Somjee,
V. Siriskar, B. Ahmed and S.Eldersveld, as well as by E.P.W. de Costa and others who have
ventures into opinion polling.8

In the 1950s, there were virtually no market research organizations in India. The dominance
of the congress diminished any incentive to develop political polls. The first national poll was
carried out by the Indian institute of public opinion (IIPO) before the 1957 general election. 9
Dr. Eric da Costa - the founder of the Indian institute of public opinion (IIPO) in the early
1950s, which was modelled on the American institute of public opinion – is credited with
pioneering elections studies and is considered the father of opinion polling in India. The IIPO
has covered almost all subsequent elections till 1980s. IIPOs procedure has been to measure
the percentage of votes likely to be cast for each party and to convert votes into seats using a
multiplier (defined as the percent of seats for a party divided by its percent of votes). The
problem with the „multiplier‟ is that it varies and cannot be assessed before an election. The
news magazine India Today has played a major role in promoting professional opinion
polling in India. In 1980 it commissioned IMRB with Ashok Lahiri and Prannoy Roy to
conduct the first-ever large All-India survey.10

One tool of research that has only recently been exploited in India is the opinion poll. The
diversity of the country and the difficulty of framing questions that are equally meaningful to
different linguistic and communal groups, as well as the sheer cost, has held back its
development. It is a technique that has proved valuable elsewhere and that can reveal not only
how far men and women, old and young, rich and poor, vote different, but also how votes
correlate with opinions about issues. Opinion polls get most publicity when used by the
media for forecasting elections results. But academic sample surveys, asking an elaborate
battery of questions about the elector’s background and attitudes, can offer much more
profound insights into the whys and the wherefores of voting. 11 In Ireland, a generation ago it
used to be said that opinion polls would never work. The Irish were such charming people
that, instead of giving their real views, they would always be trying to please the interviewer.
Similar doubts about polls are still expressed in India, and to them are added the real
difficulties of conducting interviews in many languages, often with illiterate, uninformed, or
8
David Butler, Ashok Lahiri, Prannoy Roy, India Decides,Elections 1952-1995,pp. 1
9
Ibid., pp.41
10
Sanjay Kumar and Praveen Rai, Measuring Voting Behaviour in India, pp.15-16
11
David Butler, Ashok Lahiri, Prannoy Roy, India Decides,Elections 1952-1995,pp. 41
merely fearful respondents. However, polls are now an established part of the Irish electoral
scene and in India they are approaching that status. In 1989, they were spectacularly
successful in forecasting the result. Although polls are fallible, especially in Indian
conditions, it is possible to derive from sample surveys a far more accurate picture of the
voting intentions and political attitudes of the Indian electorate than from any other source.12

In the Indian democracy elections are not merely a process to select and choose the
governments. In India elections are considered as a festival of democracy. Our country enjoys
elections and stand out as not only the largest but a triumphant example of democracy.
Despite of many failing of our political parties and politicians no one can doubt the success of
the democratic process. In more than 65 years of Indian democracy country has witnessed 16
Lok Sabha elections and more than 350 state assembly elections. In many countries’
governments change by coups or revolutions but in our country since the independence of our
country in 1947 both at the state level and at the Centre, the governments are changed or
confirmed by the people as a whole. For example, In General elections of Lok Sabha 1977
the Indian electorate threw out one government but in 1980 they decided that it should come
back. In 1984, at a time of crisis, they gave an emphatic mandate to a new leader. In 1989
they opted for change. In 1991 they reverted narrowly to the traditional dominance of the
congress. In 1996 they didn’t vote to return the congress however the successive two
governments were in existence with the support of the Congress. 1998 Indian voters gave
largest number of seats to BJP and in 1999 it was almost repeated again. In 2004 the mood of
the voters changed and country witnessed congress as the largest party again and the verdict
was repeated in 2009 Lok Sabha elections with electorate gave close to magic number of 272
seats to congress led UPA again. After 5 years the mood of the electorate changed in way that
the party which won 206 seats in last election performed worst in the history of independent
India. The congress party won its lowest tally of 44. On the other hand the electors of Indian
imposed the faith in Bharatiya Janata Party which won on its own over 280 seats, a mandate
not seen in last 30 years of Lok Sabha elections, and the BJP led NDA won more than 330
seats.

Politicians and journalists have always tried to develop a sense of how public opinion is
moving. But it is very difficult to translate a broad perception of mood into precise
quantitative terms, measuring a small change in party’s vote. Forecasting the number of seats
likely to be won is an even more hazardous occupation than forecasting votes. A small swing
12
Ibid.
of vote can cause a disproportionately large change in seats. For pollsters, therefore, even
normal sampling errors can have a significant impact in terms of seats won or lost.8
International experience has shown that the most accurate way of measuring party support is
to conduct a mass opinion survey of a cross-section of the public, using a sample selected on
scientific principles. In 1936, since Dr. Gallup launched this technique, it has been adopted
all over the world to forecast the outcome of elections. In most cases, the percentage vote of
each party has been predicted with a reasonably high degree of accuracy. However, there
have been some spectacular failures.13 It is ironic, for instance, that, when Dr. Gallup made
his reputation in 1936 by correctly predicting president Roosevelt’s re-election, his forecast
had a large error than the prediction he made later which so severely damaged his reputation.
In 1936 Gallup over-stated Roosevelt’s vote by 7 percent (Roosevelt won with 55 percent of
the vote compared to the gall up forecast of 62 percent); in 1948, though gallup‟s error was
only 4.5 percent, he predicted the wrong winner (dewey lost by 4 percent while gall up had
forecast a victory margin of 5 percent.14

Polls can go wrong because they are incompetently conducted, or because poor sampling
procedure is used, or because a significant number of electors stay away from the booth.
Apologists claim that they err frequently because of a „late-swing‟-voters changing their
minds during the last few days, between the final opinion poll interviews and the actual
casting of ballots. The problem with all analysis and surveys of elections is that it ultimately
rests on the votes of individuals. Voters are, almost necessarily, treated as equal expressions
of support, even though a vote means very different things to different people. To some it is a
resounding statement of faith in a party or an individual; to others it is a marginal, almost
random choice, a hesitant decision about the lesser evil. Voting statistics do not have intensity
measurements attached to them. Yet, just as a relationship can range from a passionate love-
affair to a casual acquaintance, so a vote can signify powerful convictions or near apathy.
When on builds great edifices of explanation on the statistics of an election result, on should
remember how varied in quality the bricks that on is using are. 15 Elections are an inevitable
part of democratic societies. Democracies provide universal suffrage, the right to vote to its
citizens. Whether the constant hammering of media messages has any perceptible impact on
the behavior of the people is a matter of much empirical research. Political parties,
candidates, media organization and researchers, however, are interested to know how people

13
Ibid., pp.5
14
Ibid., pp. 39
15
Ibid.
perceive the political campaigns, which by and large are mediated through mass media. That
people with different demographic profile think and behave differently is also a matter of
interests to the campaigners as this helps them preparing messages to suit the psyche of
electorate with varying backgrounds and tastes to get the “desired response”. For a long time
scholars, who have studied the media behavior of the public have found a close relationship
between their interest level in politics and attention to political stimulus through mass media
coverage. The phenomenon has several consequences in political communication. The most
interested in politics can also partisans or „brand loyalists‟ to certain political parties. This
leads one to seeking more political information about political parties or candidates of their
choice. The impact of media, the research suggests, is likely to be greatest when the
recipients of the message have little information and existing attitudes. 16 The role of opinion
polling especially during the last few decades has been a subject of much fascination to those
who are engaged in it but of concern to political scientists, sociologists and concerned
citizenry.

16
Ibid.
GUIDELINES AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK FOR EXIT POLLS

The press council of India having considered the question of desirability or of publication of
findings of pre-poll surveys and the purpose served by them, is of the view that the
newspapers should not allow their forum to be used for distortions and manipulations of the
elections and should not allow themselves to be exploited by the interested parties.

The Press Council, therefore, advises that in view of the crucial position the electoral process
in a representative democracy like ours, newspapers should be on guard against their precious
forum being used for distortions and manipulations of the elections. This has become
necessary to emphasize today since the print media is sought to be increasingly exploited by
the interested individuals and groups to misguide and mislead the unwary voters by subtle
and not so subtle propaganda on casteist, religious and ethnic basis as well as by the use of
sophisticated means like the alleged pre-poll surveys. While the communal and seditious
propaganda is not difficult to detect in many cases, the interested use of the pre-poll survey,
sometimes deliberately planted, is not so easy to uncover. The Press Council, therefore,
suggests that whenever the newspapers publish pre-poll surveys, they should take care to
preface them conspicuously by indicating the institutions which have carried such surveys,
the individuals and organizations which have commissioned the surveys, the size and nature
of sample selected, the method of selection of the sample for the findings and the possible
margin of error in the findings.

Further in the event of staggered poll dates, the media is seen to carry exit-poll surveys of the
polls already held. This is likely to influence the voters where the polling is yet to commence.
With a view to ensure that the electoral process is kept pure and the voters' minds are not
influenced by any external factors, it is necessary that the media does not publish the exit-poll
surveys till the last poll is held.

The Press Council, therefore, request the press to abide by the following guidelines in respect
of the exit-polls:

Guideline

No newspaper shall publish exit-poll surveys, however, genuine they may be, till the last of
the poll is over.
The then Chairman of the Press Council of India, who was also the President of the World
Association of Press Councils, brought these guidelines to the notice of the Election
Commission. Taking an overall view of the whole situation and also of the guidelines of the
Press Council of India, the Election Commission issued on order, on 11 January 1998, laying
down the following 'Guidelines' for the observance by print and electronic media, including
government-controlled electronic media in connection with the conduct of opinion polls and
exit polls by them, during the then ensuring the election to the House of People and
Legislative Assemblies of Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura:

Guidelines

(i) The organisations or agencies conducting opinion polls shall conduct such polls, and
publish results thereof, in or by any print or electronic media, at any time, except the
period mentioned in clause (ii)
(ii) No result of any opinion poll conducted at any time shall be published, publicised or
disseminated, in any manner whatsoever, in or by any print or electronic media, after
1700 hours on February 14 1998 (February 16 1998 being the first day of poll for the
aforesaid general elections) and till after the closing of poll in all States and Union
territories, i.e., 1700 hours on the March 7 1998.
(iii) The above organisations and agencies shall also be free to conduct exit polls. But the
result of any such exit poll conducted at any time shall also not be published,
publicised or disseminated, in any manner whatsoever, in or by any print or
electronic media, at any time from 0700 hours on February 16 1998 (being the first
day of poll for the aforesaid general elections) and till after the closing of poll in all
States and Union territories, i.e. 1700 hours on the March 7 1998.
(iv) Any organisations or agencies conducting any opinion poll or exit poll, while
publishing, publicising or disseminating the result of any such poll, must indicate the
sample size of the electorate covered by such polls and geographic spread of survey
so conducted. They must invariably give the details of methodology followed, likely
percentage of errors, the professional background and experience of the organisation
or organisations and the key professionals involved in the conduct and analysis of the
poll.

Soon after these guidelines were issued, there was a strong protest from electronic and print
media. They contended that these guidelines infringes fundamental right of speech and
 expression and also the right of information under art 19(1)(a) and that such right could be
curtailed, if at all, by law under art 19(2) and not by means of an executive fiat in the form of
a guideline. Some of them even challenged these guidelines before the Supreme Court 17 and
the High Courts of Delhi18 and Rajasthan.19 As common questions of law were involved in
all these three petitions, the Election Commission moved the Supreme Court for transfer of
the writ petitions from the High Courts of Delhi and Rajasthan to the Supreme Court for
disposal under art 139A. Though the matter was heard urgently by the Supreme Court on 9
and 13 February 1998 in view of the fact that the first phase of poll for the general elections
was scheduled to take place on 16 February 1998, the apex court did not stay the impugned
guidelines, despite a persistent prayer to that effect from the petitioners and posted the matter
for regular hearing after the general elections. As a result, the above guidelines were duly
observed by all electronic and print media at the time of the aforesaid general elections in
February-March 1998.

Again, the Election Commission issued similar guidelines in the context of general elections
to the Legislative Assemblies of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Mizoram and Delhi held in
November 1998. These too were duly observed by all concerned.

But when the Election Commission again attempted to enforce similar guidelines in the
context of general elections to the House of the People and the Legislative Assemblies of
Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Sikkim held in September-
October 1999, the Times of India Group of Newspapers refused to observe them and openly
apprised the Election Commission of their intention to defy those guidelines. Feeling
agitated over this development, the Election Commission approached the Supreme Court for
a direction to the Bennet Coleman & Co, the owners of the aforesaid newspapers group, to
abide by the Commission's guidelines. As that Company was not a party to the proceedings
pending before the Supreme Court, the Election Commission chose to file an independent
writ petition20 before the apex court impleading that company also as one of the respondents
thereto. The matter was heard by the Supreme Court on 8 September 1999, but remained
inconclusive. As it was learnt that the Jain Television Co had also announced that it would
telecast on that very night the results of the opinion poll conducted by it, that company was

17
R Rajagopal v Union of India and Ors Writ Petition No 80 of 1998 before the Supreme Court
18
Frontline v Election Commission and On Writ Petition No 449 of 1998 before the Delhi High Court
19
SN Tiwai v Election Commission and Ors Writ Petition No 355 of 1998 before the Rajasthan High Court
20
Election Commission of India v. Union of India and Ors Writ Petition No 407 of 1999 before the Supreme
court
 specially summoned by the Supreme Court to appear before it on that day and in view of the
inconclusive hearing on that day, the company was directed to defer the proposed telecast
until further orders. The matter was further heard by the Supreme Court on 9 September
1999, but was referred to the Constitution Bench in view of the important constitutional
issues involved. The Constitution Bench of the apex court heard the matter further on 14
September 1999. The Constitution Bench expressed serious doubts about the constitutional
validity of the impugned guidelines making inroads into fundamental rights of the opposite
parties and wondered how could the same be enforced by the Election Commission in the
absence of any statutory sanction or the violators of those guidelines attracting any penal
provisions. Realizing its predicament in view of what transpired in the court, the Election
Commission decided to recall the impugned guidelines and the Supreme Court thereupon
disposed of all the pending matters observing that the same did not survive any longer for
consideration.21

Thereafter, the Election Commission withdrew its aforesaid guidelines on 14 September

1999 itself. Consequently, there were no restrictions on the conduct of opinion polls and exit
polls or on the dissemination of results of those polls during the general elections to the
House of the People and certain legislative assemblies held in September-October 1999.

At the time of subsequent general elections to the Legislative Assemblies of Bihar, Haryana,
Manipur and Orissa held in January-February 2000, the Election Commission refrained from
imposing any restrictions on the conduct of opinion and exit polls. But the Press Council of
India, however, did reiterate their earlier guidelines in February 2000, impressing upon the
print media not to disseminate the results of any opinion polls and exit polls after the start of
the polling process on 12 February and till its completion in all states on 22 February. But
these guidelines of the Press Council were hardly observed.

In the context of the general election to the House of the People in 2004, the Commission
had convened a meeting of political parties on the 6 April 2004, to discuss the issue of
opinion polls and exit polls. The unanimous view of all the six national parties and all the
eighteen out of the forty five state parties which participated in that meeting was that
conducting the opinion polls and publishing results thereof, should not be allowed from the
day of issue of statutory notification calling the election and till the completion of the poll. It
was suggested that in a multi-phased election where poll is taken on different dates, such

21
Rajagopal v Union of India and Ors, etc Writ Petition No 80 of 1998
 prohibition in conducting and publishing the results of opinion polls should be for the entire
period starting from the date of notification of the first phase of election and until the
completion of the poll in the last phase. On the subject of exit polls also, all the political
parties were of the view that in a multi-phased election, results of exit polls should not be
allowed to be published until the completion of the poll in the last phase. The Election
Commission, thereupon, recommended to the Law Ministry that there should be a specific
provision in the 1951 Act, prohibiting publication and dissemination of the results of exit
polls and opinion polls during the period mentioned above. The Law Ministry obtained the
opinion of the Attorney General of India, who was of the view that prohibiting the
publication of opinion polls and exit polls would be a breach of Art 19 (1) of the
Constitution. He suggested that certain guidelines could be laid down to provide that while
disseminating results of the agency concerned should provide the public with sufficient
information regarding the name of political party or organization which commissioned the
survey, the identity of the organization conducting the survey and the methodology
employed, the sample chosen and the margin of error, etc, and that it was open to the
Election Commission, in exercise of its plenary powers under art 324, to issue directions
requiring the media to comply with the guidelines.

The Election Commission, however, pointed out that such guidelines issued by it in 1998
had to be withdrawn as the Supreme Court observed that the Commission could not enforce
them in law against the media. The Commission, therefore, reiterated its view that there
should be some restriction under the law on publishing the results of opinion polls and exit
polls. The Commission felt that such restriction would be in the wider interests of free and
fair elections. Regarding the argument about the right to freedom of information sought to be
linked to the dissemination of results of opinion and exit polls, the Commission pointed out
that the past experience showed that, in many cases, the results of elections had been vastly
different from the results predicted on the basis of the exit polls. Thus, the information
claimed to be disseminated turned out to be disinformation in many cases. The Commission,
therefore, again recommended to the government that there should be a restriction under the
law on publishing the results of such poll surveys for a specified period during the election
process. It was also pointed out that in many of the western democracies, there exist such
restrictions for various periods.22

22
See the Election Commission’s Proposal for Electoral Reforms sent to the Government on 6 th July 2004. A
Writ Petition is pending before Supreme Court in name of D.K. Thakur v. Union of India seeking prohibition on
Exit Polls
The above recommendation of Election Commission has, however, been partially accepted
by the government and Parliament in 2009. By the Representation of the People
(Amendment) Act 2009, a new S 126A has been inserted in 1951 Act (with effect from 1
February 2010) placing certain restrictions on the conduct of Exit Polls and dissemination of
their results. However, the opinion polls have been kept out of the purview of the newly
inserted S 126A. Under S 126A, conduct of exit poll and publishing or publicizing by means
of print or electronic media or dissemination in any other manner, whatsoever, the result of
any exit poll has been prohibited during such period as the Election Commission may, by a
general order, notify in this regard. In the case of a general election, such period of
prohibition may commence from the beginning of the hour fixed for poll on the first day and
continue till half an hour after closing of the poll in all the states and union territories. In case
of a bye-election or a number of bye-elections held together, period may commence from the
beginning of the hour fixed for poll and on the first day of poll and continue till half an hour
after closing of the poll. Where a number of by elections are held together on different dates,
the period may commence from the beginning of the hour fixed for poll on the first day of
poll and continue till half an hour after closing of the last poll. The 'Exit Poll' has been
defined way of an Explanation, to mean an opinion survey respecting h voted at an election
or respecting how all the electors have performed with regard to the identification of a
political party or candidate in an election. Further, `electronic media' includes, internet, radio
and television including Internet Protocol Television, satellite, terrestrial or cable channels,
mobile and such other media either owned by the Government or private person or by both
and 'print media' includes any newspaper, magazine or periodical, poster, placard, handbill or
any other document. 'Dissemination' has been defined to include publication in any 'print
media' or broadcast or display on any electronic media. Any contravention by any person of
the above provisions has been made punishable with imprisonment for a term which may
extend to two years or with fine or with both. In addition to s 126A, another s 126B has also
been inserted for punishment to companies who commit any offence under s 126A. If the
above offence has been committed by a company, every person who, at the time the offence
was committed, was in charge of and was responsible to the company for the conduct of the
business of the company, as well as the company, shall be deemed to be guilty of the offence
and shall be liable to be proceeded against and punished accordingly. However, if such
person proves that the offence was committed without his knowledge or that he exercised
due diligence to prevent the commission of such offence, he shall not be liable to any
punishment provided in s 126A. But, where an offence under s 126A has been committed by
a company and it is proved that the offence has been committed with the consent or
connivance of, or is attributable to any neglect on such the part of any director, manager,
secretary or other officer of the company, director, manager, secretary or other officer
shall also be deemed to be guilty offence and shall be liable to be proceeded against
and punished accordingly `Company' here means any body corporate, and includes a
firm or other a of individuals, and 'director', in relation to a firm, means a partner in the
firm.

The above restrictions on the conduct of exit polls and dissemination of results thereof,
however, suffer from a serious lacuna and do not seem to serve the intended purpose fully. In
the case of elections held in more than one phase, the law Poll restriction only on the conduct
of exit poll and dissemination of result of such polls and in respect of the first phase of poll;
but the conduct of opinion polls and dissemination of their results in respect of the
subsequent phases of poll are still permissible which may have the deleterious effect on the
coming phases of poll which the prohibition on the dissemination of the results of the earlier
exit polls seeks to avoid. The Election Commission has pointed out this serious shortcoming
in the law to the government, but the remedial action to remove the above lacuna is yet to be
taken by government and Parliament.
2014 LOK SABHA ELECTIONS – THE ACCURACY OF POLL
PREDICTIONS

It was during the 2014 LS elections that India saw agencies conducting the surveys becoming
more cautious. Credibility topped the agenda of the agencies as viewers/readers had
developed cynicism over exit polls because consistently the results were wrong.

In 2014, the Election Commission of India barred media houses from announcing exit poll
results till the poll results were announced. However, this decision of the EC was not
acceptable to the media organizations as they found it illogical. Later the EC withdraw its
decision and allowed the announcement of the exit poll results after 6.30 pm on May 12,
2014 the last day for voting for the LS elections. And, all TV channels religiously followed
this instruction. It is at this juncture, the exit polls/post poll surveys conducted by certain
agencies for the media houses became interesting and crucial. The TV channels which had
commissioned the surveys were Times Now, CNN-IBN, Headlines Today, ABP News,
News24 and India TV among others. Each English TV channel had tied up with a different
agency and the results were different.

In run up to the 2014 polls, News Express, a TV channel, had released the footages of a sting
operation named Operation Prime Minister which alleged that a number of polling agencies
were into malpractices. It said the numbers were being fudged to project Modi as the front-
runner and this was done to influence undecided voters. The allegations were against Ipsos, a
global market research company and Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election
Research (CVoter), a polling agency, which had contractual agreement with the India Today
group, which is into publication business. Finally, the agreement had to be suspended. The
irony was that the promoters of News Express, Sai Prasad Group, itself came under criticism
as it was alleged to have involved in money laundering cases and were facing investigations.
It came to light that the channel was backed by a ruling party which was not doing well as per
the opinion polls. Later the India Today group and various other media groups carried the
findings of the CVoter. Agencies adopt different types of survey methodologies. Following
explains the methodology followed by certain media houses/agencies;23

23
Asha K., Exit Polls of 2014 Lok Sabha Elections-The Accuracy of Poll Predictions in India, Journal of Media and
Social Development, December 2014, Vol.2 Issue 4
As per the details hosted by NDTV, a prominent commercial broadcasting television
network, on its website, the methodology adopted by it is as follows. It had conducted both
Polling Booth Surveys and Post Poll Household Surveys in association with Hansa Research,
a global market research agency.

1.Polling Booth Exit Polls: The sample size was 63,740 selected randomly in polling booths
across the country. A randomized selection of voters was asked as to which party they voted
for once they were out of polling booths.

2.Post Poll Exit Polls: The sample size was 91,712 voters.

The elections were held in a phased manner and the exit polls were conducted on the day of
elections. Every fifth voter was interviewed to indicate the candidate/party for which he/she
had voted. The exit polls were conducted over select 265 LS constituencies across 19 major
states. The proportion of constituencies covered was higher in states where major political
changes had taken place. For example, in undivided Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, West
Bengal, and New Delhi among others the selection of constituencies was more. Parliamentary
constituencies chosen for the exit polls were representative of the socio-political regions
within the state. On an average there are eight assembly constituencies in a parliament
segment. Three assembly constituencies (AC) were randomly selected and in all 795
assembly constituencies (AC) were considered for collecting the output across the country.
This included 3,150 randomly selected polling booths. For each booth two interviewers were
assigned for one hour. Later they were moved to another booth. The information they elicited
from the respondents were stored in tablet computers. The voter indicated their preference of
candidate and the party symbol displayed on the screen. But their choice was not exposed to
the interviewers. The agency also conducted Post Poll Survey with voters randomly selected
from the electoral rolls after the conclusion of the elections. The interviews were conducted
over 1 to 8 days after the polling. The sampling was done over 330 LS constituencies across
19 states. The states selected were those selected for the exit polls. In each parliamentary
constituency (PC) three assembly constituencies were randomly selected. A total of 990 ACs
were sampled and the polling booths involved were 3,224. The total interviewers were
92,000. There were no differences between the method followed to collecting and storing the
data between the exit and post poll surveys.24

24
Ibid.
The voters’ list was the base for selecting the voters randomly. The interviews’ outcome was
recorded on tablet computers. The candidate along with the party symbol was selected by
each voter to show his/her choice. All data was weighed to reflect the constituency profile on
gender and religion/caste.

Findings In all, six surveys were conducted by prime agencies and the NDA was in the broad
range of 257-340 seats. The average was calculated on the basis of the range given for each
party and political front. Eventually, the NDA scored 336 and thus topped the score card of
the Lok Sabha elections and the UPA won 59 seats. So, the actual results did not go beyond
the surveys’ polls average of 340 seats for the NDA. 1.Pre-election polls sample size in 2
phases – 90,339 2.Pre-election update polls sample size – 14,772 3.Pre-election telephone re-
contact sample size – 18,324 (This was done during the poll duration) 4.Post-election exit
polls sample size – 63,740 5.Post-election post poll- 91,712 6.Total interviews over the
polling schedule – 2,78,837

Other highlights

1. Interviews were conducted in homes and not in public places

2. The questions were well thought of and no random questions were asked by the
interviewers

3. Data collection process was through simulated ballot box for recording the choice of the
voter.

4. The exit poll results of NDTV-Hansa when announced on May 14, 2014, it said that the
sample size was 1.55 lakh with a two per cent margin of error.

CNN IBN-LOKNITI-CSDS

CNN IBN had tied up with Lokniti-CSDS for the post-poll survey of the elections. The
Delhi-based political research centre, Lokniti, under the banner of Election Tracker, did the
post poll survey and not exit poll as done by other channels/organizations. The Hindu
newspaper published the CSDS survey results. The exit poll is conducted on the day of
polling. It is collecting information from voters as to whom they voted. In case of post-poll,
which is developed by Comparative Democracy at the Centre for the Study of Developing
Societies (CSDS) according to Dr Sandeep Shastri, political analyst working with CSDS,
voters are interviewed after the polling. It need not be conducted in a hurried manner soon
after the voting is done. It is not only collecting information as to whom voters voted for but
also to find out as to why they preferred a particular party or a candidate. It is also an
academic exercise regarding elections and voters are randomly selected from the electoral
rolls, says Dr Shastri. As per the Lokniti team, the methodology followed was collecting the
opinion after the polling and before the results were announced. The survey was conducted in
26 states. Of the 543 LS constituencies, 306 were included for the survey. Within the LS
constituencies, 347 assembly segments encompassing 1,388 polling stations were included.

1. The constituencies were sampled using the Probability Proportionate to Size Method
(PPS).

2. Four polling stations within each of the assembly constituency were selected.

3. The method used was the Systematic Random Sampling (SRS).

4. The voters were selected from the electoral rolls prepared by the Election Commission.

5. From each polling station –interaction was with 25 respondents in rural polling station and
30 respondents in urban polling booths.

6. Of the 37,000 respondents selected randomly, 22,295 voters were successfully

interviewed.

7. Field investigators/staff interviewed the respondents to find out to whom they voted for
and the reasons for their choice.

8. A standard questionnaire was circulated to the respondents.

9 .At the same time, they were given a dummy ballot paper on which they were asked to
indicate their choice of preference. The ballot papers were collected in a dummy ballot box.

10. The voters interviewed remained anonymous. The interviews were conducted at the
voters’ residence.

11. The interaction with the voters helped in understanding the political opinions within the
context of broader social and economic factors.

12. Grouping of the states were done using a statistical technique known as weighing. Each
state was proportionately represented in the analysis.
The data collected were analyzed by a research team of the CSDS consisting political
scientists.

Today’s Chanakya is a Delhi-based political research organization and a registered trademark

of RNB Research, a member of the American Marketing Association. It had carried out the
exit poll on the day of polling in the respective states in each phase and post poll study in
each phase. News24 TV channel had tied up with Today’s Chanakya for using the exit poll
outcome. According to the organization, the entire system of conducting the poll is based on
a ‘seven layer spectrum model’, designed especially for Indian elections. The survey covered
22 states, including Delhi and Union Territory of Chandigarh. News24-Today’s Chanakya
exit poll had generated a lot of debate and raised many eyebrows with their predictions of
election results in the past. With almost exact predictions, News24 exit polls had emerged as
the most proven and credible exit poll. For the Delhi assembly polls, News24 had predicted
29 seats for the BJP, 10 for the Congress and 31 for the AAP. The results were almost on the
same lines – the BJP 32 (31+1- Shiromani Akali Dal), the Congress 8 and the AAP 28.
Today’s Chanakya predicted a Modi wave in the country with the BJP bagging 291 seats (+/-
14 seats). The Congress may reach as low as 57 seats (+/- 9 seats). It had predicted that the
BJP would be in a position to form the government on its strength. It had projected 340 (+/-
14) seats for the NDA, 70 (+/-9) for the UPA and 133 (+/- 11 seats) for others. The survey
results by and large tallied with the final results.25

25
ibid
CONCLUSION

Exit and Opinion polls seen to be an unavoidable evil in modern day elections. Millions of
rupees are spent to gauge the opinions of the electorate on varying issues before elections.
Whether people change their decision after knowing the findings of the pre-poll opinion i.e.
whether they follow the „bandwagon effect‟ or „underdog‟ effect not much serious work
seems to have been done in any of democracies under study. Though it is a matter of serious
concern but will it suit the opinion poll agencies to conduct such studies.

Do opinion polls play a decisive role in elections? Is their power in politics a reality, an
exaggeration or a myth? While no definition answers are in sight, politics over the years has
become a booming business. Polls can go wrong and have gone wrong a number of times. Dr.
Gallup who pioneered opinion polling who made a reputation in 1936 by correctly predicting
president Roosevelt’s re-election his forecast had a large error than the prediction he made
later.

Dr. Bhaskar Rao, a leading pollster in India, a student of Dr. Gall up say emphatically “I am a
critic of the polls; opinion polls are supposed to help making an intelligent, a better choice a
better decision. That’s looking beyond temporal things. But we have reduced them to a
commercial exercise.” The challenges in conducting election surveys in India arise from a
variety of reasons like the geographical span of the country, the highest number of electorates
in the world, the existing socio-cultural and demographic diversities, proliferation of political
parties, the changing nature of party competition, and the rapidly changing domain
knowledge and technology for polling around the world. Unlike countries in the western
world, where the nature of the electorate is homogenous, voters in India are highly
heterogeneous with a wide range of diversity in terms of region, and non-homogenous
character of the Indian electorate poses a big challenge for studying the opinion and attitudes
of the voters with reasonable confidence. The poll surveys in most democratic countries is
not a very complex task as the electoral competition is limited to two dominant parties based
on the bi-party system. On the other hand, independent India’s experiment with electoral
politics was based on the multiparty system.

However this is not the place to get into a detailed assessment of the accuracy or otherwise of
opinion polls in India, but let me just note that contrary to popular impressions the overall
record of Indian pollsters is not bad by international standards. Of late we have seen some
really bad forecasts, but these have been cases of poor professionalism and not of political
manipulation. By and large, most of the agencies and media houses involved in this exercise
have. The analysis of elections exit polls results also show that the record of pollsters is not
so bad but they need to improvise their techniques so that the chances of errors can be
minimized. Opinion polls have come to stay in India and all things considered need not be
banned; people sit glued to their TV sets on the eve of every election curious to know who
will be their chosen representatives. It is imperative that Indian agencies conducting opinion
polls constantly innovate and improvise their research methodology for bridging the gap
between forecasts and actual results. Then alone opinion polls get better credibility and
acceptance.
 BIBLIOGRAPHY

BOOKS USED

 V S Rama Devi and S K Mendiratta, How India Votes- Election Laws, Practice and
Procedure, 3rd Edn., 2014, Lexis Nexis Publications.

 P. Rathna Swamy, Handbook on Election Law, Lexis Nexis Publications.

 Durga Das Basu, Law of the Press, 5th Edn., 2010, Lexis Nexis Publications.

ARTICLES

 Asha K., Exit Polls of 2014 Lok Sabha Elections-The Accuracy of Poll
Predictions in India, Journal of Media and Social Development, December 2014,
Vol.2 Issue 4.

 Madabhushi Sridhar, THE MIND-RIGGING BY MEDIA: ELECTORAL

OFFENCES AND CORRUPT PRACTICES, Media Law Review, 2010, NALSAR
University.

 CONSULATION PAPER ON MEDIA LAW, May 2014, Law Commission of India.