Risk and Expected Return Standard Model (CAPM)
Risk and Expected Return Standard Model (CAPM)
Risk and Expected Return Standard Model (CAPM)
E(return)
SML (CAPM)
Risk (beta)
• E(Rj) = Rf + [E(Rm)-Rf] * j = 2 + 6 j
• Slope of line = 6 reward per unit risk
• Intercept of line = risk free rate = 2%
Introduction to Investments
Where Does This Come From? Prof S G Badrinath
Tying Risk and Returns in Pricing Assets
Rf 4% 0.0 0
• For A, the expected return of 14% from current price levels implies an expected future price
of 15 * (1.14) = $17.1
• For B, expected return of 12% => expected future price of 50 * 1.12 = $56
Introduction to Investments
Case(i): Suppose B is priced correctly with a risk-reward of 8 Prof S G Badrinath
Tying Risk and Returns in Pricing Assets
• A is priced incorrectly. Investors will buy B, those owning A will sell it and move to B until A’s
risk-reward is same as B.
• A’s price will fall and its expected return will rise.
• What expected return for A is consistent with a risk-reward of 8?
• [E(R ) – 4]/1.5 = 8, E(R ) = 16% (increases)
• What current price (based on future expected price of 17.1?
• Current Price * (1.16) = 17.1, implies Current price for A = 14.74 (decreases from 15).
• NOTE: This is a bit contrived to make the point, we have to keep something fixed!
Introduction to Investments
Case (ii): Suppose instead that A is priced correctly Prof S G Badrinath
Tying Risk and Returns in Pricing Assets
• Then B is undervalued and its price will increase to 50.601, its expected return will drop to
10.67% and its risk-reward ratio will be 6.67. Confirm it!
• Often, both can happen especially if the market risk-reward is 7 (say). The example
illustrates a process of how assets get priced and repriced in markets.
The message is that prices will (should) move this way to equate risk/reward ratios across all
assets. Or, prices should be set so that the risk/reward ratio for all assets are equal.
Here the risk-reward ratio has a specific form and using it,
• [E(Rj) – Rf]/j = [E(Rm) – Rf]/1.0 = 8, Rearranging:
• E(Rj) = Rf + j [E(Rm) – Rf] or the CAPM.
Introduction to Investments
Prof S G Badrinath
Tying Risk and Returns in Pricing Assets
In life, the risk-reward is probably more complicated than that assumed for the
CAPM and other models for valuing assets exist.
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