NEW YEAR PICKS

2021 – A year of Restoration

Central Banks infused a lot of liquidity in their systems and Govts

came out with fiscal stimulus to beat the effects of slowdown due
to Covid in 2020. This has ensured that interest rates remain low
creating a favourable background for equity markets.

Low interest rates support equity valuations in two ways - the

rate at which future earnings streams are discounted is low; and
equities look more attractive to investors on a relative basis
because dividend, earnings and cash flow yields are much higher
than fixed income yields.

2020 has been among the worst years for the global economy in
more than 70 years. We expect 2021 to be a Year of Restoration.
Some segments have reached near-normalcy while others will
attain so in the coming months.

A weaker dollar also leads to easier financial conditions for

many emerging market countries, as well as companies that
earn revenue in local currency but pay debt service in dollars.
This dynamic would also help support the recovery in emerging
markets in 2021.

We bring to you 10 stocks from different sectors that are likely

to benefit from the rebound in the economic activities. These
companies are likely to witness superior earnings growth and are
likely to outperform the benchmark indices.

Happy Investing!
 NEW YEAR PICKS

Super 10 for 2021

Bandhan Bank Birla Corporation Gail India Hindustan Petroleum Hindustan Unilever
Sector - Banking Sector - Cement Sector - Oil & Gas Sector - Oil & Gas Sector - FMCG
CMP - 406 CMP - 725 CMP - 123 CMP - 225 CMP - 2315

Infosys Nippon Life India Asset ONGC State Bank of India Sun Pharmaceuticals
Sector - IT Management Sector - Oil & Gas Sector - Banking Sector - Pharmaceuticals
CMP - 1159 Sector - Asset Management CMP - 101 CMP - 267 CMP - 571
CMP - 311

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Bandhan Bank

About the Company:

Set up as Bandhan Financial Services Pvt. Ltd (BFSL) in 2006, BFSL was the largest NBFC-MFI in India until 2014 after which, it HDFC Scrip Code BANBANEQNR
became the first entity to receive an in-principle universal banking licence from the Reserve Bank of India. It operates through a
BSE Code 541153
network of 4,701 branches, doorstep service centres (DSCs), and GRUH centres, spread across 34 states and Union Territories.
NSE Code BANDHANBNK
Key Highlights: Bloomberg BANDHAN IN
• Bandhan Bank is looking to grow its non-micro portfolio to diversify the asset book and increase granularity. Post the merger with CMP Dec 17, 2020 406
Gruh Finance, mortgages account for ~26% of the loan book and has become a focus area for the bank.
Equity Capital (cr) 1610.4
• In FY19 the bank started distribution of general and life insurance products from its branches. Core fee income grew by 133% in
FY20 to Rs 800cr and contributed 52% to the total other income. Face Value (Rs) 10
• BBL reaches its customers largely through its extensive network of doorstep service centres, which are low overhead banking Eq- Share O/S(cr) 161.0
outlets located nearby to customers, leading to lower cost-income ratio and strong return ratios. Market Cap (Rscr) 65429
• BBL has built up its networth along with scale of operations, thereby maintaining adequate capitalisation over time. As of Q2FY21
Adj. Book Value (Rs) 94.37
it had a CAR of 25.7% and Tier-I ratio of 22.2%.
Avg.52 Wk Volume 1,32,00,000
Outlook and Valuation: 52 Week High 526.6
Bandhan Bank (BBL) has consistently demonstrated a strong track record in growing its balance sheet/earnings (AUM grew by CAGR
52 Week Low 152.4
44% FY10-20) and maintained a robust market share/cost leadership with superior return ratios, pristine asset quality and low-cost
DSC (door step service centers) network. Despite the slowdown we expect the bank to deliver RoA in the range of 3.3-3.5% and
RoE of ~19-20%. At CMP of Rs 410 the bank trades at 3.2x FY22E ABV. We believe the bank would continue to trade at premium Share holding Pattern % (Sep, 2020)
valuations given the huge opportunity in MFI business. Promoters 40.00

Concerns: Institutions 38.07

• Competition from large private sector banks in building up its deposit franchise and improving CASA ratio. Private banks are Non Institutions 21.93
also focusing on scaling up their deposit base Also Banks and new MFIs are expanding their activities in Microfinance bringing Total 100.0
competition for BBL.
• Microloans are not generally backed by collateral, they may pose a higher degree of risk than loans secured with physical collateral.

Fundamental Research Analyst

Atul Karwa
atul.karwa@hdfcsec.com

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Bandhan Bank

Financial Summary:

Particulars (Rs cr) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

NII 4496 6,324 7,355 8,761
PPoP 3748 5,447 6,140 7,163
PAT 1952 3,024 2,955 3,675
EPS (Rs) 16.4 18.8 18.4 22.8
P/E (x) 25 21.8 22.3 18
P/ABV (x) 4.5 4.5 3.9 3.2
RoAA (%) 3.9 4.1 3 3.1

(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

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Birla Corporation Ltd

About the Company:

Birla Corporation is a company of the M.P. Birla Group which was incorporated as Birla Jute Manufacturing Company Limited in 1919. HDFC Scrip Code BIRCOREQNR
Later on, it has entered into the multi-locational cement business. BCL sells cement under various well-established brands, prominent
BSE Code 500335
being MP Birla Perfect Plus, MP Birla Unique, MP Birla Samrat, MP Birla Ultimate, MP Birla Ultimate Ultra, MP Birla Chetak, MP Birla
Concrecem, MP Birla Multicem, MP Birla PSC with its key markets being Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Bihar, NSE Code BIRLACORPN
Bengal, Delhi, Gujarat and Maharashtra. BCL has 15.58MTPA of cement capacity, 52631 metric tons of jute and 3750 metric tons of Bloomberg BCORP:IN
iron & steel casting installed capacity. CMP Dec 17, 2020 725
Equity Capital (cr) 77
Key Highlights:
• Birla Corp (BCL) has a significant presence in Central (Madhya Pradesh), Northern regions (Uttar Pradesh & Rajasthan), West Face Value (Rs) 10
Bengal and Maharashtra. It has 4.2% of the market share in the Indian cement industry. Eq- Share O/S(cr) 7.70
• The company has finalized a plan to scale up its capacity to 25 MTPA by 2025 from current capacity of 15.6 MTPA which provides Market Cap (Rscr) 5584
strong visibility of future growth.
Book Value (Rs) 517
• BCL has a network of 1250 marketing staff, 300 sales promoters and more than 10,000 dealers (both BCL and RCCPL). Birla Corp
has a strong presence on the retail front owing to its distribution network and focus on trade sales, which has a share in excess of Avg.52 Wk Volume 280376
80% of total volume sales. Further, the company has been pushing more of premium cement via its trade channels and higher ad 52 Week High 807.60
spends. This has led premium products to form ~50% of trade sales.
52 Week Low 372.50
• Increase in sale in blended cement implies higher absorption of fly ash, which reduces clinker consumption, and, in turn, boosts
profitability. Fly-ash and captive coal consumption is estimated to lower down costs by ~Rs.30/MT. BCORP has undertaken an
organization-wide supply chain improvement exercise, which is expected to contribute ~Rs. 50/MT in cost reduction FY23E Share holding Pattern % (Sep, 2020)
onwards. Promoters 62.90

Outlook and Valuation: Institutions 18.53

Birla Corp. is a part of M.P.Birla group with a history of 6+ decades in cement industry. It has 4.2% of the market share in Indian Non Institutions 18.57
cement industry. It has a 15.58 MTPA of cement capacity, 52631 metric tons of jute and 3750 metric tons of iron & steel casting Total 100.0
installed capacity. Its 34% cement capacity is located in Madhya Pradesh followed by 26% capacity in Rajasthan and remaining in
other regions. Its debt-funded expansion and ownership fight can create pressure on valuation and performance.
We expect, that the company will get benefit from the regionally diversified position with upcoming capacity. We like Birla Corp due
to its extensive retail presence in the lucrative north/central regions, substantial ongoing cost reduction and healthy balance sheet
despite significant expansions plans. BCL has finalized plans to reach 25 MTPA of cement capacity by 2025 from current capacity of
15.58 MTPA.
We expect, 2% CAGR in top-line and -1% EPS CAGR over FY20-22E. At the LTP, the company is trading at FY22E EV/T of $65.68/T, Fundamental Research Analyst
6.43x FY22E EV/EBITDA. Jimit Zaveri
Jimit.zaveri@hdfcsec.com

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Birla Corporation Ltd

Concerns:
• BCL is run by non-promoter professional management. A probate court ruled that Lodha, Chairman of the group’s flagship firm Birla Corporation, should be removed as chairman of
Birla Corporation and as a director on the boards of other MP Birla companies. This could create some uncertainty on promoter front.
• Cement prices have been up due to decent demand. Any fall in demand of cement could lead to lower realisations and margins.

Financial Summary:

Particulars (Rs cr) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

Total Operating Income 6,548.7 6,915.7 6,473.5 7,244.5
EBITDA 948.6 1,336.0 1,275.1 1,475.3
EBIDTAM (%) 14.5 19.3 19.7 20.4
APAT 255.7 505.2 445.6 498.0
Diluted EPS (Rs) 33.2 65.6 57.9 64.7
RoE-% 5.8 10.9 8.9 9.2
P/E (x) 22.3 11.3 12.8 11.5
EV/EBITDA 10.0 7.1 7.4 6.4

(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

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GAIL (India) Ltd

About the Company:

Incorporated in 1984 as a central public sector undertaking (PSU) GAIL is a leading gas transmission and distribution company in HDFC Scrip Code GAILTDEQNR
India.It is also engaged in various other activities including city gas distribution through stake in Indraprastha Gas Ltd (IGL) in Delhi
BSE Code 532155
and Mahanagar Gas Ltd (MGL) in Mumbai. Its wholly owned subsidiary GAIL Gas Ltd has been authorized for implementation of CGD
projects in four cities namely Kota, Dewas, Sonepat and Meerut. NSE Code GAIL
Bloomberg GAIL IN
Key Highlights: CMP Dec 17, 2020 123
• GAIL is planning for expansion in petrochemicals, specialty chemicals and renewables to supplement growth in its core business
Equity Capital (cr) 4510.1
of natural gas marketing and transportation. It plans to bid for new pipelines put on offer by the regulator. Also, it will continue
to grow its gas transmission business by laying important sections of National Gas Grid -- about 7,500-km of lines, mostly to the Face Value (Rs) 10
eastern part of the country. Eq- Share O/S(cr) 451.0
• The company has developed strong tie ups for supply of natural gas both domestically and internationally with long term contracts. Market Cap (Rscr) 55858
50% of its gas is sourced through domestic sources and balance 50% is imported from USA, Russia and Qatar
Book Value (Rs) 97.5
• Government of India is focused on increasing the share of natural gas in the overall energy mix of the country to 15.0% from 6.5%
and the government has taken several steps to increase natural gas consumption over the recent past. Going forward the demand Avg.52 Wk Volume 1,71,45,000
for natural gas is expected to remain healthy driven by the City Gas Distribution (CGD) demand from existing and new areas. 52 Week High 133.4
• GAIL’s financial profile to remain comfortable with higher capex and dividends in FY20. We expect its increasing focus on gas-
52 Week Low 65.0
pipeline expansion and its city-gas distribution segment to keep capex high at around Rs 7500 crore in FY21 vs. Rs 8250 crore in
FY20. We also expect dividend payouts could be at a range of 20-25 per cent in FY21E and FY22E.
Share holding Pattern % (Sep, 2020)
Outlook and Valuation: Promoters 51.76
We expect GAIL’s ongoing pipeline projects to enhance its dominant market position over the medium term. GAIL owns 70% of India’s
gas transmission network which is its stable, non-cyclical and regulated business. This is likely to remain the key operating income Institutions 43.18
contributor over the medium term generating stable cash flows. Cost effective operations, experienced management, attractive Non Institutions 4.39
valuations and sound financials are key advantages offered by the stock apart from a decent dividend yield. The stock currently trades Total 100.0
at 10.2x FY22E EPS.

Concerns:
• Economic slowdown, volatility in oil and gas prices and regulatory changes could impact its growth story in near future. The
changing macro-economic scenario can have an impact on the growth plan of the Company.
• Sustained low crude oil prices could result in low realisations for petroleum products like Petrochemical, LPG and LHC.
• The City Gas Distribution and Gas Transmission industry is under regulatory regime wherein the Regulatory Board (PNGRB) has
framed various regulations, which monitors day to day business operations. Fundamental Research Analyst
Abdul Karim
abdul.karim@hdfcsec.com

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GAIL (India) Ltd

Financial Summary:

Particulars (Rs cr) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

Total Operating Income 76,189.9 72,508.4 48,824.6 58,154.7
EBITDA 9,667.6 9,025.0 5,530.3 7,607.1
RPAT 5,777.6 7,268.0 3,139.8 4,452.2
Diluted EPS (Rs) 14.5 20.9 9.2 12.3
RoE-% 14.3 19.5 8.1 9.7
P/E (x) 8.6 6.0 13.6 10.2
EV/EBITDA 5.9 6.9 11.1 7.9

(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

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Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd

About the Company:

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) is engaged in the business of refining of crude oil and marketing of petroleum products. HDFC Scrip Code HINPETEQNR
HPCL owns and operates two coastal refineries at Mumbai and Visakhapatnam with designed capacity of 7.5 MMTPA and 8.3
BSE Code 500104
MMTPA respectively. Apart from this, HPCL holds an equity stake of 16.96% in Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Limited, a
state-of-the-art refinery at Mangalore with a capacity of 15 MMTPA. HPCL has about 25 per cent market-share in India among public- NSE Code HINDPETRO
sector companies and a strong marketing infrastructure. Bloomberg HPCL IN
CMP Dec 17, 2020 225
Key Highlights:
Equity Capital (cr) 1523.8
• HPCL is one of the three leading public OMCs, with a ~24% market share (including private players) as of end of FY2020. The
government has been supporting OMCs through budgeted subsidies and discounts from upstream companies, thereby minimising Face Value (Rs) 10
their sales-related under-recovery burden. HPCL could continue to get government’s support by absorbing a large portion of its Eq- Share O/S(cr) 152.4
sales-related under-recoveries, if it occurs. Market Cap (Rscr) 34323
• HPCL has the second largest share of product pipelines in India with a pipeline network of more than 3370 kms for transportation
Book Value (Rs) 190.0
of petroleum products. has a wide distribution and marketing infrastructure network, including a network of cross-country
pipelines, terminals, depots and 16,707 retail outlets. It plans to add 500 retail outlets in FY21. Avg.52 Wk Volume 74,67,000
• HPCL plans to invest over Rs 60,000 crore in the next five years to build and develop infrastructure and HPCL’s capex plans 52 Week High 270.7
include the implementation of major projects such as the capacity expansion at both its refineries, expansion of its pipeline
52 Week Low 150.0
network and setting up of new pipelines.
• HPCL’s liquidity profile is expected to remain strong, aided by healthy cash flow generation and sizeable cash and cash equivalents
(Rs 5,568 crore as on March 31, 2020). Company has made strong dividend payout of 80% in FY20, with dividend yield at 6.7 per Share holding Pattern % (Sep, 2020)
cent. Promoters 51.11

Outlook and Valuation: Institutions 37.78

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) has dominant market position as one of India’s top-three oil marketing companies. Non Institutions 11.11
HPCL’s marketing business is the strongest amongst peers with consistent market share gains in auto fuel segment despite rising Total 100.0
private competition. HPCL is targeting the completion of the Mumbai and Vizag expansions in 2021, followed by upgradation at Vizag
in 2022 and Rajasthan (Barmer) refinery in 2023. The company expects all pipeline projects to be completed on time as well. The
stock is currently trading at 5.3x FY22E EPS.

Concerns:
• Company’s profitability is exposed to volatility of crude prices and crack spreads as well as foreign exchange fluctuations.
• HPCL has seen under-recoveries on account of controlled prices of SKO and LPG in the domestic market over the past. While GoI
has provided budgetary support, the absence of an institutionalised mechanism to meet under-recoveries has delayed subsidy Fundamental Research Analyst
receipts in the past. Abdul Karim
abdul.karim@hdfcsec.com

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Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd

Financial Summary:

Particulars (Rs cr) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

Total Operating Income 2,75,473 2,69,092 1,91,628 2,22,322
EBITDA 11,567 4,660 7,549 12,068
RPAT 5,761 3,097 3,263 5,979
Diluted EPS (Rs) 43.9 2.0 23.3 43.2
RoE-% 23.9 8.6 11.0 18.4
P/E (x) 5.2 113.7 9.8 5.3
EV/EBITDA 4.8 14.7 9.6 5.8

(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

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Hindustan Unilever Ltd

About the Company:

HUL is India’s largest FMCG company with a strong presence in the home care and beauty and personal care categories. The company HDFC Scrip Code HINUNIEQNR
is a subsidiary of Unilever Plc (that holds a 62% stake in HUL), the world’s largest consumer goods company present across 190
BSE Code 500696
countries. It has over 40 brands spanning 12 distinct categories such as personal wash, fabric wash, skin care, hair care, oral care,
deodorants, color cosmetics, beverages, ice creams, frozen desserts and water purifiers. NSE Code HINDUNILVR
Bloomberg HUVR:IN
Key Highlights: CMP Dec 17, 2020 2315
• HUL is the No.1 Laundry Company in India with revenues growing at 10% CAGR and a profitability growth of 3.6x (FY13 to FY19),
Equity Capital (cr) 216
No.1 Haircare company in India with ~59% market share and a growth of 11% CAGR and is the market leader in Tea under the
Brooke Bond brand with a growth of 10% CAGR. Apart from these, HUL is also ranked no.1 in skin care, skin cleansing, make up, Face Value (Rs) 1
ranked no.2 in oral care and ranked no.3 in deodorants. The company has a very well diversified portfolio under Home Care (HC), Eq- Share O/S(cr) 216
Beauty & Personal Care (BPC), and Food & Refreshments (F&R) categories. Market Cap (Rscr) 544028
• HUL has one of the widest distribution reach of +7mn outlets. The company is debt free and cash rich (~Rs.5113 cr cash as of
Book Value (Rs) 178.8
FY20) after recent acquisitions of GSK’s Consumer business. We expect strong synergy benefits to play out in next 2-3 years.
• In H1FY21 alone, the company has launched 100+ SKU’s in H1FY21 in the hygiene category which along with the company’s Avg.52 Wk Volume 3875241
other health and nutrition brands makes up 80% of the portfolio which has seen 10% growth. The stock price has remained muted. 52 Week High 2614
Earnings may surprise on the upside and the stock IS likely to get rerated gradually
52 Week Low 1757
• HUL’s board of directors have approved the proposal to form a new 100% subsidiary with an authorized share capital of Rs.2,000
Cr. The new subsidiary has been formed to leverage the growth opportunities in the change of business environment by
commencing manufacturing before March 2023 and to avail benefits of the new tax regime (lower tax rate of 15% plus surcharge Share holding Pattern % (Sep, 2020)
and cess). This could lead to higher volume growth, margin expansion, and introduction of new products or backward integration Promoters 61.9
possibilities.
Institutions 25.36
Outlook and Valuation: Non Institutions 12.74
HUL is a play on consumption growth in India. The company has proved its ability to implement effective price hikes and to grow Total 100.0
ahead of market. We believe HUL will be able to overcome short-term economy led hurdles as it has done in the past. Disruptive
times are particularly hard on un-organized players, which may lead to HUL gaining market share. HUL has the best of breed earnings
growth potential in the longer term owing to its diversified portfolio, execution strengths, and RoCE levels well ahead of peers. All
these factors indicate that premium multiples are likely to sustain, the stock is currently trading at ~54x FY22E earnings.

Concerns:
• Volatility and price fluctuation in commodities like tea, palm oil and crude can temporarily affect the company margins.
• Lot of brands and business of HUL are highly matured and have reached such a size and scale that a double-digit kind of growth on Fundamental Research Analyst
a yearly basis might become difficult. Karan Shah
Karan.Shah@hdfcsec.com

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Hindustan Unilever Ltd

Financial Summary:

Particulars (Rs cr) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Net Sales 39,310 39,783 45,759 49,622 53,469
EBITDA 8,880 9,861 11,505 12,870 14,120
EBITDA Margin (%) 22.59 24.79 25.14 25.94 26.41
APAT 6,080 6,860 8,165 9,226 10,129
Diluted EPS (Rs) 28.1 31.7 34.8 39.3 43.1
P/E (x) 82.9 73.5 67.0 59.3 54.1
EV/EBITDA 69.2 47.1 43.6 38.8 35.2
RoCE (%) 69.2 72.2 31.1 21.2 22.7

(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

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Infosys Ltd

About the Company:

Infosys is a leading provider of consulting, technology, outsourcing and next-generation digital services, enabling clients in 46 HDFC Scrip Code INFTECEQNR
countries to create and execute strategies for their digital transformation. It caters to industry verticals such as financial services,
BSE Code 500209
manufacturing, telecommunications, retail, life sciences, media and entertainment, and energy and utilities.
NSE Code INFY
Key Highlights: Bloomberg INFO IN
• Infosys is a global leading consulting and next generation service provider and Company has a diversified range of offerings across CMP Dec 17, 2020 1159
service segments and industry verticals. It has steadily increased the share of revenue from digital services. Historically Nasscom
Equity Capital (cr) 2129.8
data suggests larger Indian players are gaining market share.
• Infosys’s business risk profile is supported by its leading market position, large scale of operations with a skilled resource base of Face Value (Rs) 5
239,000 employees. Company has built specific industry domain and technology expertise, and in methodologies such as Design Eq- Share O/S(cr) 425.9
Thinking and Agile software development. Market Cap (Rscr) 493722
• Infosys deal pipeline is healthier than before, though cost-cutting and cash conservation measures by clients have led to delayed
Adj. Book Value (Rs) 146.2
conversions. It has announced several large deal wins in the recent past.
• Infosys financial profile has been robust led by debt free balance sheet and healthy cash generating ability over the past. Avg.52 Wk Volume 1,11,72,000
52 Week High 1186.0
52 Week Low 509.3
Outlook and Valuation:
We remain optimistic on its revenue and profitability trajectory as well as cost rationalisation efforts going forward. We expect a
repeat of past post crisis opportunity for IT services when it benefitted out of a wave of fresh outsourcing and offshoring demand Share holding Pattern % (Sep, 2020)
given India’s large pool of engineers and low cost advantage. In the medium term Infosys sees opportunities around vendor Promoters 12.95
consolidation and large re-badging deals which it can capitalise on given its ability to seamlessly transition to work from home and
strong balance sheet position. At CMP the stock is trading at 24.5x FY22E EPS. Institutions 56.28
Non Institutions 30.37
Concerns: Total 100.0
• INR appreciation against the USD, pricing pressure, retention of the skilled headcounts, strict immigration norms as well as ban on
US H-1B and L1 visa, and rise in visa costs are key concerns.
• Many of Its clients’ business operations may be negatively impacted due to the economic downturn – resulting in postponement,
termination, suspension of some ongoing projects with Infosys and / or reduced demand for its services and solutions.

Fundamental Research Analyst

Abdul Karim
abdul.karim@hdfcsec.com

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Infosys Ltd

Financial Summary:

Particulars (Rs cr) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

Total Operating Income 82,676 90,791 97,061 1,08,170
EBITDA 20,889 22,268 24,807 27,212
RPAT 15,409 16,640 18,103 20,315
Diluted EPS (Rs) 37.1 38.6 42.3 47.5
RoE-% 24.3 25.1 25.1 25.8
P/E (x) 31.3 30.1 27.6 24.5

(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

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Nippon Life India Asset Management Ltd

About the Company:

Nippon Life Asset Management (NAM India) (formerly known as Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management) is one of the largest asset HDFC Scrip Code NIPLIFEQNR
management companies in India. The total AUM size of the company is ~ Rs. 2.73 lakh Cr as of Jun-20. Besides the mutual fund
BSE Code 540767
business, the company has a sizeable AUM under portfolio management services and alternate Investment funds. The company also
manages funds for provident fund bodies and government managed pension Funds schemes. NSE Code NAM-INDIA
Bloomberg NAM IN
Key Highlights: CMP Dec 17, 2020 311
• NAM India has always been known for its strength in the Retail segment. Over the last 2 decades, the Company has meticulously
Equity Capital (Cr) 612.7
built its assets in this category and created long-term wealth for its retail investors.
• Indian Mutual Fund Industry has a multiyear growth story lying ahead of them on the back of several structural benefits. Currently Face Value (Rs) 10
Indian MF Industry is highly under penetrated- AUM to GDP ratio is mere 12.5% (vs 6.7% in FY12) compared to Global average of Eq- Share O/S(mn) 61.2
62% and ~46% in other emerging countries like us. Market Cap (Rs Cr) 19227
• Recent regulatory change which has revised expense ratios lower for mutual fund investors should also aid in greater retail
Book Value (Rs) 41.6
participation. Recent trend of low interest rates is also good for mutual fund flows, as money moves from low interest rate bank
deposits towards higher yielding products. Avg.52 Wk Volume 16,05,000
• NAM India traditionally had an asset mix with higher proportion of debt and institutional investors, but the recent decline in debt 52 Week High 452.9
and liquid AUMs from corporate investors has changed asset mix towards individual and equity. As AUMs stabilise, operating
52 Week Low 207.7
leverage will drive ROEs.

Share holding Pattern % (Sep, 2020)

Outlook and Valuation: Promoters 74.95
A complete exit of ADAG and promoter backing of global giant Nippon gives us confidence in the company’s future. Extensive
expansion to newer locations and industry leading B30 AUM augurs well for NAM India. Given the massive under-penetration of Institutions 11.44
financial products and inclusion in India, there is enough scope for AMCs like NAM India to continue to expand profitably. At CMP it is Non Institutions 13.61
trading at 8.4x FY22E EPS. Total 100.0

Concerns:
• Market volatility (especially downward) has high correlation with fund flow into AUM. So any prolonged period of negative returns
from equity market can hurt company’s revenues hard
• NAM India faces competition from bank backed AMCs like HDFC, Axis, ICICI, Kotak etc who have captive customers in their
Banking businesses. In the absence of a bank promoter, NAM has developed strong IFA (independent financial advisor) network of
over 76,000 IFAs.
• Any adverse change of regulations can also impact the business of the company. Fundamental Research Analyst
Atul Karwa
atul.karwa@hdfcsec.com

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Nippon Life India Asset Management Ltd

Financial Summary:

Particulars (Rs cr) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

Total Operating Income 1478 1203 1022 1168
EBITDA 539 608 493 596
RPAT 486 415 491 566
Diluted EPS (Rs) 7.9 6.6 7.8 9.0
RoE-% 19.5 16.1 18.5 19.9
P/E (x) 38.6 46.2 39.1 33.9

(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

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Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd

About the Company:

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. (ONGC) is the largest crude oil and natural gas Company in India, contributing around 75 HDFC Scrip Code OILNATEQNR
per cent to Indian domestic production. ONGC is a Maharatna PSU, with the GoI holding 60.41% stake in the company. Company
BSE Code 500312
undertakes exploration and production activities in 17 other countries through its wholly-owned subsidiary ONGC Videsh Limited
(OVL). It has integrated downstream activities in India with two subsidiaries viz. Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. (MRPL) NSE Code ONGC
and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (HPCL). Bloomberg ONGC IN
CMP Dec 17, 2020 101
Key Highlights:
Equity Capital (cr) 6290.1
• ONGC is the country’s largest oil and gas producer with 72.6% and 79.85% of India’s total production of crude oil and natural gas
respectively for the FY20. It is also a significant producer of value-added products such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), superior Face Value (Rs) 5
kerosene oil (SKO) and naphtha. Eq- Share O/S(cr) 1258.0
• ONGC’s average Capex (standalone) per annum has been in the range of Rs 30,000 to Rs 32,000 crore. Its subsidiary OVL also has Market Cap (Rscr) 127689
large Capex plans to fulfil its mission of 60 MMTOE production by 2030 through both organic and inorganic initiatives.
Adj. Book Value (Rs) 154.5
• On standalone basis, ONGC has consistently reported a healthy reserve replacement ratio of over 1x over the last 14 years with an
average reserve life of 15 years, indicating the sustainability of the producing reserves. Company made 12 discoveries – 7 onshore Avg.52 Wk Volume 2,60,67,000
and 5 offshore. 2P Reserve accretion stood at 53.21 Million tonne oil equivalent (MMTOE) with a Reserve Replacement Ratio 52 Week High 133.4
(RRR) of 1.19.
52 Week Low 50.0
• ONGC’s financial profile remained comfortable in FY20 and Company enjoys high financial flexibility that allows it to raise debt
and access capital markets at competitive rates to fund its capex and working capital requirements.
Share holding Pattern % (Sep, 2020)
Outlook and Valuation: Promoters 60.41
ONGC enjoys a dominant market position in the domestic crude oil and natural gas production business with large proven reserves,
globally competitive cost structure, and stable performance of its subsidiary ONGC Videsh Ltd. (OVL). The Government is looking to Institutions 25.23
provide a package of measures to help domestic oil producers pull through the price crash and the uncertainty in the global oil market. Non Institutions 14.36
Any relief in this regard could be positive for ONGC to add to its profitability. Acquisition of a majority stake in HPCL fits well into the Total 100.0
group’s integrated energy strategy. At CMP the stock is trading at 12.3x FY22E EPS.

Concerns:
• E&P business is highly capital intensive activity and has long gestation period with high uncertainty with respect to estimation
of reserves. The success of E&P activities depends on quality of the available data engineering, geographies, geologies and
geopolitical interpretation. Adverse outcome or failure on E&P project could bring cost burden and impact its profitability.
• ONGC has been experiencing decline in production in its mature fields over the past. Company has launched improved oil recovery
(IOR) and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) programs to increase the production as well as the recovery factor. Going forward, replacing Fundamental Research Analyst
reserves and growing production while maintaining a favourable cost structure could remain a key challenge for ONGC. Abdul Karim
abdul.karim@hdfcsec.com

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Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd

Financial Summary:

Particulars (Rs cr) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

Total Operating Income 4,53,461 4,25,001 3,29,382 3,75,775
EBITDA 83,865 61,169 41,176 56,280
RPAT 30,459 10,506 1,873 9,251
Diluted EPS (Rs) 27.7 14.4 2.4 8.3
RoE-% 16.5 8.5 1.4 5.1
P/E (x) 3.7 7.1 42.9 12.3
EV/EBITDA 2.8 4.0 7.2 5.2

(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

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State Bank of India

About the Company:

State Bank of India (SBI) is the oldest and the largest bank in India. Its origin goes back to the 19th century with the establishment of HDFC Scrip Code STABANEQNR
the Bank of Calcutta in 1806, Bank of Bombay in 1804 and Bank of Madras in 1843 and the amalgamation of these banks in 1921. As
BSE Code 500112
of FY20 it had over 22,000 branches and 58,555 automated teller machines (ATMs).
NSE Code SBIN
Key Highlights: Bloomberg SBIN IN
• SBI is a financial conglomerate with a presence in insurance, asset management, credit cards and various other services through its CMP Dec 17, 2020 267
subsidiaries. All these are performing exceptionally well and adding substantial value to the bank’s valuation.
Equity Capital 892
• SBI holds a dominant position in the Indian banking industry with a market share of 23.2% and 22.4% in the banking system’s
deposits and advances, respectively. It has a diversified loan book with 35% to large and mid-corporates, 31% to retail, 11% to Face Value (Rs) 1
SME, 9% to agriculture and remaining 15% is foreign Offices Advances. Eq- Share O/S 892
• SBI has undergone a digital transformation of its services, by launching their flagship venture ‘YONO’. This venture offers Banking, Market Cap (Rs Cr) 238822
Insurance, and Investment products, as well as unmatched service and shopping experience, at one digital platform.
Core Adj. Book Value (Rs) 175.2
• Asset quality has been improving with moderate slippage rate. Its provision coverage ratio has improved to over 80% and would
require limited credit provisioning going forward. Avg.52 Wk Volume 6,36,70,000
52 Week High 339.9
Outlook and Valuation:
52 Week Low 149.5
SBI is almost immune to any liability-side risks at this juncture, given its expansive, granular deposit base and government’s majority
holding. It is better placed to curtail asset quality worries than many other large banks because of its quality of loan book. Moreover,
ample provision coverage will curtail incremental loan loss provisions. SBIN has one of the strongest deposit franchises; along with Share holding Pattern % (Sep, 2020)
inexpensive valuations. At CMP it is trading at 1.2x FY22E Core ABV. Promoters 56.92

Concerns: Institutions 32.83

• Recent COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have multiple order and far reaching impacts on the banking sector. Credit growth is Non Institutions 9.01
already low and asset quality issues are likely to spread into many sectors. On-going stress in Corporate and SME segment might Total 100.0
accelerate and in fact retail loan segment might emerge as a new source of stress.
• After a prolonged period of stress, Indian banking sector had finally entered into resolution and recovery phase. With this,
corporate facing banks like SBI with huge corporate book size had a lot to gain. So any further delay in the process of resolution of
large assets due to current uncertainties and extension granted under IBC could be a dampener.

Fundamental Research Analyst

Atul Karwa
atul.karwa@hdfcsec.com

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State Bank of India

Financial Summary:

Particulars (Rs bn) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

NII 883.5 980.8 1,050 1,123
PPoP 554.4 681.3 686 742
PAT 8.6 144.9 151 245
EPS (Rs) 1.0 16.2 17.0 27.4
P/E (x) 274.2 16.9 16.1 10.0
P/ABV (x) 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.2
RoAA (%) 3.9 4.1 3.0 3.1

(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

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Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd

About the Company:

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries is the largest Indian pharma company, with an impressive track record of organic and inorganic growth. HDFC Scrip Code SUNPHAEQNR
Company is ranked no.1 in India while stands at no.8 in USA. Sun Pharma is the largest Indian pharma company in USA. It commands
BSE Code 524715
~8.2% market share in Indian Pharma Market (IPM). Company has 31 brands amongst top-300 brands in IPM.
NSE Code SUNPHARMA
Key Highlights: Bloomberg SUNP: IN
• Sun Pharma derived ~32% revenues from US, and ~30% from India. Rest of the world (RoW) - mainly Russia, Europe and Japan CMP Dec 17, 2020 571
- contributed 14% to its revenues and Emerging Markets (Russia, Brazil, South Africa, Romania and Asia) revenues contribution
Equity Capital (cr) 239.9
stands at 17% while the balance comes from API segment. Company earned ~US$ 410mn revenues from global specialty business
in FY20. Face Value (Rs) 1
• Company derives ~60% of its domestic revenues from chronic therapeutic area and key being CNS, Cardiac, Anti-diabetic, Eq- Share O/S (cr) 239.9
Gastroenterology, Pain/analgesics, Vitamins and Dermatology. Company is ranked no.1 in CNS, Cardiac, Orthopaedic, Market Cap (Rs cr) 137082
Dermatology, Nephrology and Urology.
Adj. Book Value (Rs) 190
• US business (~37% of revenues), has recorded ~19% CAGR in FY09-20, on the back of acquisitions and timely product launches.
The US product basket remains robust - 495 ANDAs approved and 92 pending for final approval. Some niche launches in the Avg.52 Wk Volume 6821893
specialty portfolio include Absorica (Skin Cancer), Ilumya (Plaque Psoriasis), Odomzo (Skin Cancer), Cequa (Ophthalmic), Yonsa 52 Week High 591.5
(Cancer), Bromsite (Ophthalmic). Sun has made ~Rs 12,600cr worth of cumulative R&D investments over the last 6 years (FY15-
52 Week Low 315.2
20), and this bodes well for the company.
• Company has completed remediation measures at Halol facility and requested for desktop audit, awaits response from the US
FDA. Sun Pharma reduced ~US$ 500mn debt in FY20 and US$ 300mn in H1 FY21. Share holding Pattern % (Sep, 2020)
Promoters 54.7

Outlook and Valuation: Institutions 32.8

We estimate 7% revenue, 13% EBITDA and 18% PAT cagr over FY20-23E led by strong domestic revenues and healthy growth in US Non Institutions 12.5
market. Currently, Sun Pharma trades at ~21x FY23E earnings. We remain positive given Strong Management Team, robust balance Total 100.0
sheet, strong earnings growth expected over FY20-23E and compelling valuations. We believe that in the next 2-3 years there will
be a gradual comeback for pharma companies, driven by i) healthy growth momentum from domestic market ii) actual and likely
regulatory resolutions, iii) moderating price erosion and iv) several product launches across generic and specialty categories in the
medium-long term.

Concerns:
• Slower ramp up in specialty portfolio. Specialty pharma is a vastly different business model compared to traditional generics
requiring significantly superior R&D skills and capabilities, business development strategy and risk appetite. Fundamental Research Analyst
• Delay in US FDA resolution of Halol 483s and higher than estimated price erosion in the US. Kushal Rughani
• Drug price fixing lawsuits in the US. kushal.rughani@hdfcsec.com
• Lower growth in the domestic market; further price control due to DPCO.

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Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd

Financial Summary:

(Rs cr) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Revenues 29066 32838 33419 36905 40087
Operating Profit 6401 6974 8351 9092 10127
OPM (%) 22.0 21.2 25.0 24.6 25.3
PAT 3973 4010 5215 5749 6587
EPS (Rs) 16.6 16.7 21.7 24 27.5
P/E (x) 34.7 34.5 26.5 24.0 20.9
RoE (%) 9.6 8.9 11 10.8 11

(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

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Stock Analyst Educational Qualification Holding
Bandhan Bank Atul Karwa MMS Finance No
Birla Corpn. Jimit Zaveri MBA - Finance No
GAIL (India) Abdul Karim MBA Yes
HPCL Abdul Karim MBA No
Hind. Unilever Karan Shah BBA No
Infosys Abdul Karim MBA No
Nippon Life Ind. Atul Karwa MMS Finance No
ONGC Abdul Karim MBA No
St Bk of India Atul Karwa MMS Finance No
Sun Pharma. Kushal Rughani MBA No

Disclosure:
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reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the
specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate
may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does
not have any material conflict of interest.
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