Applied Statistics

By Shafqat Shahzoor
Lecturer, BSRS, MUET Jamshoro
 Introduction to Probability
• From the previous lectures we have knowledge of the
descriptive statistics,
• The second part of Statistics is the inferential statistics
deals with the methods of drawing and measuring
reliability of conclusions about population based on
information obtained from sample of that population.
• There is always uncertainties about these conclusion
based on samples.
• Probability theory is the measure of uncertainties,
hence forms the basis of inferential statistics.
 Introduction to Probability
• Consider the situations,
Number of Chance that a
defective circuit newly learnt Which horse to
board a lot driver would bet on in a race.
contains. make an accident.

• What is common in these three situations?

 Introduction to Probability
• Answer:
• A common thing in these situations is, these
situations contain uncertainties.
• Probability is the numerical measure of
uncertainties.
• To understand the probability, we must have
knowledge about the some of the key points such
as, random experiment, sample space, events,
etc.
• lets us understand these keys of probabilities.
 Introduction to Probability
These are
processes that
generate well-
Experiments
defined
outcomes

Experiment Experimental Outcomes

Toss a coin Head, tail

Select a component from Defective, nondefective

the production line

Conduct a sales call Purchase, No purchase

Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Play a football game Win, lose, tie
 Introduction to Probability

Sample Space
The sample space for an experiment is the set of all
experimental outcomes. It is denoted by S.

For a coin toss: Rolling a die:

S  Head, Tail S  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

S  Defective, NonDefective
Selecting a part for
inspection:
 Introduction to Probability

Events
An event is any subset of sample space.

• In Tossing a coin, In Tossing Two Coin

• A is event for Head A={H}, • A is event for no head occur,
• B is event for Tail B={T}, • B is event for two head
occur,
• C is event for at least one

• In rolling a die,
tail occur, etc
In rolling two die
• A is event for even
number,
• B is event for
multiple of 3,
• C is event for 1, etc.
 Introduction to Probability

Definition
Probability is a numerical
measure of the likelihood
of an event occurring.

0 1.0
0.5
Probability:

Probability of Probability of
null event is The occurrence of the event is just certain event
zero. as likely as it is unlikely is one.
 Introduction to Probability

Types of Events
• Null Event, • Two head occur when coin is
tossed once. A={ }, Not possible.
• Certain Event, • Any one of head or tail occur.

•
B={H,T}, Certain event.
Equally Likely events, • Head occur C={H} and Tail occur
• Mutually Exclusive events, D={T} are equally likely.
• Not Mutually Exclusive events,
• Independent events,
• Not Independent Events.
 Introduction to Probability

Types of Events
• Mutually Exclusive events:
• Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if one occurs
then other will not occur.
• In simple words these events are called disjoint events.
• Mathematically: A  B  {}  empty  Events A and B are
disjoint.

• We shall discuss other types of events time by

time.
 Introduction to Probability

Approaches of Probability
1. Classical Approach 2. Empirical Approach 3. Subjective Approach

• Classical Approach: This applies only in a situation

where a particular outcome is assigned probabilities on
basis of prior knowledge grounds.

• This depends on fact that elements of sample space are

equally likely (occurrence is of each element is same).

• If A is an event containing the m sample points and S is

the sample space containing the n sample points which
are equally likely, then P(A)=m/n.
 Introduction to Probability

Approaches of Probability
1. Classical Approach 2. Empirical Approach 3. Subjective Approach

• Empirical Approach: This approach assigns

probabilities on the basis of empirical evidence obtained
from an experiment, survey or historical record.
• This is also known as relative frequency approach.

• Subjective Approach: This approach to assign

probabilities is based on a measure of an individuals degree
of belief, that is an event will occur.
• This is employed in a situations in which other two
approaches can not work.
 Introduction to Probability

Some Examples
• Example: If a coin is tossed twice, find the probability that:
1. one head occur, no head occur, at least one head occur, at
most one head occur.
• Solution:
• Sample Space S={HH,HT,TH,TT}
• Let Events are A for one head occur = A={HT, TH} ,here m=1,
• B for no head occur = B= {TT},here m=1,
• C for at least one head occur =C= {HH, HT, TH}, here m=3,
• D for at most one head occur= D={HT,TH,TT}. Here m=3.
• P(A)=2/4=0.5, P(B)=1/4=0.25, P(C)=3/4=0.75 and
P(D)=3/4=0.75.
 Introduction to Probability

Some Examples
• Example: Following data shows the expected lifetime of
100 floppy disks made and tested by a firm.
Life time of F. disk No. of F disk Relative frequency
(Hours) (Frequency)
Less than 10 20 20/100=0.2
10 and less than 15 42 42/100=0.42
15 and less than 20 28 28/100=0.28
20 or more 10 10/100=0.10
Total 100 Sum = 1

• Here class intervals are events and relative frequencies are

corresponding probabilities.
 Introduction to Probability

Some Examples
• Example:
• A geological engineer examines extensive geological
information on a particular property. He chooses the
best site to drill an oil well, and he states that on the
basis of his previous experience he estimates that the
probability the well will be successful is 30%.
(Another experienced geological engineer using the same information
might well come to a different estimate.) This, then, is a subjective
estimate of probability. The executives of the company can use this
estimate to decide whether to drill the well or not.
• A person who apply for job will be successful in the interview.
• A new software will be liked by the users.
• You will pass the exam without preparation.

• Note that in these examples subjective approach is present.

 Introduction to Probability

Some Examples
• Example:
• Three nuts with metric threads have been accidentally mixed
with twelve nuts with U.S. threads. To a person taking nuts
from a bucket, all fifteen nuts seem to be the same. One nut is
chosen randomly. What is the probability that it will be
metric?
• Answer:
• Let A be event that nut is metric, number of total metric nut is
m=3,
• Here number of total nut n=15 total .
• P(A)=3/15=20%.
 Introduction to Probability

Some Examples
• Example: Two die are rolled find the sample space, for sum
of numbers. Also find the following probabilities;
• (i). Sum of number is odd,
• (ii). Sum of number is even,
• (iii). Sum of number is multiple of 3,
• (iv). Sum of number is at least 6,
• (v). Sum of number is 12.
• Example:
• Find the probability of (i) drawing a king (ii) 9, (iii) heart card
from a deck of 52 playing cards.