Decision-making under Deep

Uncertainty Conference 2017

BANGLADESH DELTA PLAN 2100

A challenge in meeting the uncertainties
of long-term planning
Giasuddin Choudhury
Oxford, 15 November, 2017
 Background
• The Honorable Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina initiated the
formulation of BDP2100
• Hosted by General Economic Division of Planning Commission,
GOB
• Funded by the Government of the Kingdom of The Netherlands
• World Bank providing technical assistance for preparation of
BDP 2100 Investment Plan
• Started on 12 March 2014 to be completed in December 2017
Bangladesh Delta: Downstream of Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Rivers
 Digital Elevation Model of Bangladesh
Bangladesh Delta
includes the entire
country

Land Classification

• Area of Bangladesh:147,570 km²

• Hills : 12%
• Terraces : 8%
• Floodplains : 80%

Elevation in meter
 Background: Need for a Delta Plan
Bangladesh faces the challenge of balancing its
available resources and plan against growing
uncertainties:
• Integration of existing sectoral plans
• Urbanization & population growth
• Industrialization
• Upstream developments
• Land subsidence & environmental degradation
• Climate change (sea-level rise, flooding, droughts….)
• Adequate and/or innovative financing
A ‘new’ type of planning is needed for the Delta Plan
that can deal with these uncertainties
Background: Way of working with Long Term Vision

Instead of:

1 2 3 4 5 6

2010 2100

Work with long term vision (e.g. 100 years), next back casting to present
and subsequently work with regular plans

2010 1 2100
 Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100
• A long-term (50 to 100 years), holistic, techno-economic,
water centric, strategic plan for land and water management
in support of a sustainable living environment for
Bangladesh delta
• Adaptive delta management (ADM) approach followed to
make robust and flexible decisions under uncertain changing
conditions
• BDP ADM focusses: “How to enable socio-economic
development under uncertain changing conditions especially
regarding climate change and (trans-boundary) water
availability?”
Framework for the Preparation of the Bangladesh Delta Plan
 Paradigm Shift: BDP Adaptive Delta Management
Water Integrated Delta
IWRM Adaptive Delta Management
Management Management

Standalone Inter Sectoral Inter-relations between Scenarios reflecting exogenous factors

Projects

Decision making process (including cost benefit analysis) becomes increasingly complex
Stages of BDP Strategy Formulation Process
 Adaptive Delta Management: Vison and Goals

➢National socio-economic policy goals

Goal 1: Eliminate Extreme Poverty by 2030
Goal 2: Achieve Upper Middle Income Country (UMIC) status by 2030
Goal 3: Being a Prosperous Country beyond 2041

➢ BDP Vision
Ensure long-term water and food security, economic growth and
environmental sustainability while effectively coping with natural
disasters, climate change and other delta issues through robust,
adaptive and integrated strategies, and equitable water
governance
 Adaptive Delta Management: Vison and Goals
➢Goals
Goal 1: Ensure safety from floods and climate change related disasters
Goal 2: Ensure water security and efficiency of water usages
Goal 3: Ensure sustainable and integrated river systems and estuaries
. management
Goal 4: Conserve and preserve wetlands and ecosystems and promote .
. their wise use
Goal 5: Develop effective institutions and equitable governance for in .
. country and trans-boundary water resources management
Goal 6: Achieve optimal use of land and water resources
 Approach towards BDP scenarios

1. Identify major driving forces

2. Plot drivers based on impact and uncertainty
(impact-uncertainty matrix)
3. Place two most important drivers along XY-axis
4. Develop plots/storylines with additional drivers -
pressures–states (qualitative and quantitative)
5. Define impacts per scenario–opportunities/
vulnerabilities
6. Test performance of proposed strategies in the
different scenarios
13
 Approach towards BDP scenarios

Scenario Planning Process

Political, economical, social, legal,

technological, environmental Copyright Bandudeltas - 201
 Scenarios
Resilient

15
Moderate
Moderate Reactive

COPYRIGHT BANDUDELTAS - 16
2014
Flood Risk Management Strategy
Freshwater Strategy
 Adaptation Pathway for Fresh Water Strategy
Additional surface irrigation (Ganges
Brahmaputra/ other barrages
barrage, local irrigation development)
Supply Surface water
management supply to Dhaka

Deep groundwater
development

Wastewater
reuse

Precision
Less water
irrigated Low impact, high intensity agriculture
demanding crops
Demand agriculture
Balancing supply management Irrigation water
saving Circular water management application in industry
and demand for technologies and domestic water use

sustainable Domestic
and industry
inclusive growth water saving
River/ beel/ aquifer
Water budgets restoration
at basin and
Resource
catchment level Surface and groundwater resource
planning &
protection
protection
River basin
management Joint water resource development and protection GB basin
plans for IWRM

2016 2030 2050 2100

Short term – no-regret Medium term Long term
 Adaptation Pathway for Fresh Water Strategy
Offtake
Flow augmentation North
stabilization
Enhancing Central
Jamuna
freshwater
flows River management and smart dredging

Expansion of clean
Maintaining industrial production
Circular water management application in industry
and domestic water use
technologies
water quality
Low impact agri- and
for health, Pollution aquaculture
control and
livelihoods and treatment
Reduce emissions from urban and rural areas
ecosystems Urban
wastewater
master plans
ETP coverage divisional capitals and
economic zones
Monitoring,
permitting &
control
Resource
planning & Protection and further designation of ECAs
protection
River basin and
Environmental Joint water quality management GB basin
management plans

2016 2030 2050 2100

Short term – no-regret Medium term Long term
 Delta Governance

• Adopt Delta Act

• Establish Delta Fund
• Establish Delta Commission
• Strengthen core Delta
institutions
• Strengthen cross boundary
water dialogue
• Institute beneficiary pays
principle
• Strengthen private sector
• Establish M&E system for
the Delta Plan
• Establish the knowledge
portal and data bank
 Funding Arrangements and Financial Mechanism
• Investment portfolio : 80 nos (Physical: 65, Institutional: 15)

• Investment cost up to 2030 : $ 38 billion (World Bank IP)

• Fund allocation (7th FYP) : 2.5% of GDP per annum
• Establishment of Delta Fund
‒ Public sector contribution : 2.0 % of GDP (80%)
‒ Private sector contribution : 0.5 % of GDP (20%)
• Funding strategy:
‒ Tax with non-tax revenue
‒ Cost recovery for public services
o Beneficiary Pay Principle
o O&M funding
‒ Green Climate Fund (GCF)
‒ Donor funding
• Public Private Partnership
 Conclusion
• Bangladesh Delta Plan is first of its kind in the world prepared for an entire
delta using Adaptive Delta Management principle (WB)
• Long-term plan formulated for managing water resources focusing on socio-
economic development under uncertain changing conditions considering
climate change and decreasing trans-boundary flows
• BDP2100 has taken care of the paradigm shift from sectoral to integrated
planning considering exogenous factors
• Four distinctive Scenarios have been developed with the aim to offer four
different, plausible stories of possible future directions important for future
water management
• In the current phase of the BDP2100, the proposed measures and strategies
assessed against different future outcomes
End