Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Exercise:

If you are having issues completing this exercise, please watch all of the DCF exercises from this current section of

As always, please send me questions if you have any. Thanks

Step 1 (Optional):
Read the Valuation Guidelines/Best Practices list below for help in understanding how to value a company. If y

Step 2:
There are several orange shaded boxes (or grey on some computers) on the next tab called DCF. Please come u
For example, underneath this orange box is the answer to a pretend question. Please remove this orange box t
Tip: Remove the box by pressing the SHIFT button while clicking on the box.
Then please take your finger off the SHIFT button and hit delete.

Step 3:
Before / during or after you answer the questions, please play around with the model on the 5 tabs as all 5 are

Step 4:
Please watch the next lecture for a comprehensive review of the answers and a reinforcement of how Discoun

Please note: We will cover more valuation methodologies in future sections in this course.

25
25 Modeling
Modeling &
& Valuation
Valuation Best
Best PP
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es from this current section of the course.

how to value a company. If you need a refresher or lessons on valuation, DCF and modeling, please watch all of the aforementi

tab called DCF. Please come up with the answer that you think is correct before checking the answer. Then please remove or d
ease remove this orange box to see the answer.

The answer is under this box!

The answer is under this box!

odel on the 5 tabs as all 5 are connected to each other. Please try to understand the logic of the financial statements / valuatio

einforcement of how Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation analysis works.

Please
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please watch all of the aforementioned lectures in the course before completing this exercise.

answer. Then please remove or delete or drag and drop the boxes to see the correct answers.

Here is the answer!

der this box!
this box!

he financial statements / valuation and ask me as many questions as you want.

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Discounted Cash Flow Price Target Model
$ Values are in $'000s

Green = from other tabs

Step 1: Get FCF from Cash Flow Statement Tab.

2016E
Free Cash Flow (FCF): $438

Step 2: Calculate the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (which

Weighted Average Cost of Capita

=
* Cost of Equity x % of the Capital
+
** Cost of Debt x % of the Capital
=
14.3%
What is the WACC? Please
+ is the WACC? Please
Whatcalculate first and then
calculate
remove first
0.0573% this and then
box for the
remove
= this box for
answer. Thanks the
answer. Thanks
14.31%
 Step 2.1: Calculate Cost of Equity.
Cost of Equity:
=
Risk Free Rate
+
Beta * (Stock Market Return - Risk
=
2.5%
What is the Cost of Equity?
+ is the Cost of Equity?
What
Please calculate first and then
Please calculate
2 remove
* (8.5% -thisfirst
2.5%)boxand then
for the
remove
= this box
answer. for the
Thanks
answer. Thanks
14.5%

Step 2.2: Calculate Cost of Debt.

Cost of Debt:
=
Cost of Debt * (1-0.3)
=What
What is
is the Cost of Debt?
the Costfirst
of Debt?
Please calculate and then
5%remove
Please *calculate
(1-0.30) first and then
this box for the
remove
= this box
answer. for the
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3.4%answer. Thanks

Step 3: Calculate Net Present Value.

What is the
What is thefirN
calculate
calculate first
for
 Step 3: Calculate Net Present Value.
What is the
What is thefirN
calculate
NPV = calculate first
for
for th

Step 4: Calculate Terminal Value.

Long Term Growth = What

Terminal Value =
What is
disc
discou
rem
TV Discounted = rem

Step 5: Calculate Target Firm Value.

Target Equity Value =

Less Debt =
Target Value the
Calculate = items below th
Calculate the items below this
Shares = target price per sha
target price per share
Target per share

Extra Step: Sensitivity Analysis Value.

1%
Growt

2%
h

3%
Grow
h
b.

2017E 2018E 2019E

$645 $1,466 $2,548
What is the FCF for 2018 and
What is the FCF
2019? Please findfor
the2018 and first
answers
2019?
andPlease find thethis
then remove answers
box forfirst
the
and then remove this box
answer. Thanks for the
answer. Thanks
of Capital (which is the discount rate we will use to discount our FCFs).

ge Cost of Capital:

x % of the Capital Structure that is Equity (Market Cap)

x % of the Capital Structure that is Debt

CC? Please Assume Market Cap today = $ 10,000

C? Please
and then
nd then
ox for the Assume Stock Price today = $ 8.58
for the
hanks * Equity is about 98% of the capital structure
nks
** Debt is about 2% of the capital structure (only $10)
rket Return - Risk Free Rate)

Assume Beta= 2
t of Equity? Assume Risk Free Rate = 2.5%
firstEquity?
of and then
t and then
ox for the Assume Stock Market Return = 8.5%
for the
hanks
nks

Assume Debt Cost= 5%

st of Debt?
of Debt?
first and then
st and then
ox for the
xhanks
for the
anks

What is the Net Present Value? Please

What is thefirst
calculate Netand
Present
then Value?
removePlease
this box
calculate first
for the answer. Thanks box
and then remove this
 What is the Net Present Value? Please
What is thefirst
calculate Netand
Present
then Value?
removePlease
this box
calculate$5,443
first
for the answer. Thanks box
and then remove this
for the answer. Thanks

What is Terminal Value and the Terminal2% Value

What is Terminal Value and the
discounted? Please calculate Terminal Value
first and then
$33,843
discounted? Please calculate first
remove this box for the answer. and then
Thanks
$19,822
remove this box for the answer. Thanks

$25,265
$10
$25,255
e items below this box to find out what the
tems below this
et price per sharebox to find out what the
1,165 using DCF.Thanks
price per share using DCF.Thanks
$21.68
W
A
C
C

8.3% 11.3% 14.3%

$41 $28 $20
$47 $30 $22
$55 $33 $23
What is the target
What is the
price pertarget
share
price per share
 What is the target
Green = Bullish What is the
price pertarget
share Orange = Base Case
price per share
assuming a WACC
assuming
of 11.3%a WACC
and a
of 11.3% and a
Long Term Growth
Long Rate
TermofGrowth
3%?
Rate of 3%?
 2020E
$4,084
and
nd
rs first
orfirst
the
the

count our FCFs).

ture (only $10)

 Assume Long Term Growth = 2%
C
C

17.3% 20.3%
$16 $13
$17 $13
$18 $14
e = Base Case Red = Bearish Case
Revenue Breakdown (feeds into the Income Statement on the next tab)

Blue = hard coded (not calculated)

1Q11A 2Q11A 3Q11A 4Q11A
Sector Breakdown of Revenue

Total Revenue 4.5 7.0 21.5 32.0

YOY change
QOQ change 55.6% 207.1% 48.8%

REVENUE LINE ITEM #1 OF 2 4.0 6.0 20.0 30.0

YOY change
QOQ change 50.0% 233.3% 50.0%
% of total 88.9% 85.7% 93.0% 93.8%

REVENUE LINE ITEM #2 OF 2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

YOY change
QOQ change 100.0% 50.0% 33.3%
% of total 11.1% 14.3% 7.0% 6.3%
 2011 1Q12A 2Q12A 3Q12A 4Q12A 2012 1Q13A 2Q13A 3Q13A

$ 65 9.8 15.2 47.0 70.0 $ 142 $ 20 $ 32 $ 98

117.8% 117.1% 118.6% 118.8% 118.5% 108.5% 108.0% 109.0%
-69.4% 55.1% 209.2% 48.9% -70.8% 54.8% 210.7%

$ 60 8.8 13.2 44.0 66.0 $ 132 18.5 27.7 92.4

120.0% 120.0% 120.0% 120.0% 120.0% 110.0% 110.0% 110.0%
-70.7% 50.0% 233.3% 50.0% -72.0% 50.0% 233.3%
92.3% 89.8% 86.8% 93.6% 94.3% 93.0% 90.5% 87.7% 94.0%

$ 5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 $ 10 2.0 3.9 5.9

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0%
-50.0% 100.0% 50.0% 33.3% -51.3% 100.0% 50.0%
7.7% 10.2% 13.2% 6.4% 5.7% 7.0% 9.5% 12.3% 6.0%
 Blue = hard coded (not calculated)

4Q13A 2013 1Q14A 2Q14A 3Q14A 4Q14A 2014 1Q15A 2Q15A

$ 146 $ 297 $ 41 $ 63 $ 196 $ 292 $ 591 $ 77 $ 119

109.1% 108.9% 99.0% 98.8% 99.4% 99.5% 99.3% 89.5% 89.4%
49.0% -72.2% 54.6% 211.7% 49.1% -73.6% 54.4%

138.6 $ 277 $ 37 $ 55 184.8 $ 277 $ 554 $ 70 $ 105

110.0% 110.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 90.0% 90.0%
50.0% -73.3% 50.0% 233.3% 50.0% -74.7% 50.0%
94.7% 93.4% 90.9% 88.2% 94.3% 94.9% 93.7% 91.1% 88.5%

7.8 $ 20 3.7 7.4 11.1 14.8 $ 37 6.9 13.7

95.0% 95.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 85.0% 85.0%
33.3% -52.5% 100.0% 50.0% 33.3% -53.8% 100.0%
5.3% 6.6% 9.1% 11.8% 5.7% 5.1% 6.3% 8.9% 11.5%
ded (not calculated)

3Q15A 4Q15A 2015 1Q16E 2Q16E 3Q16E 4Q16E 2016e 2017e

$ 372 $ 554 $ 1,122 138.7 214.3 669.0 997.4 2,019.4 3,439.2

89.7% 89.7% 89.7% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 70.3%
212.2% 49.1% -75.0% 54.4% 212.2% 49.1%

351.1 $ 527 $ 1,053 126.4 189.6 632.0 948.0 1,896.0 3,223.3

90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 70.0%
233.3% 50.0% -76.0% 50.0% 233.3% 50.0%
94.5% 95.1% 93.9% 91.1% 88.5% 94.5% 95.1% 93.9% 93.7%

20.6 27.4 $ 69 12.3 24.7 37.0 49.4 123.4 215.9

85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 75.0%
50.0% 33.3% -55.0% 100.0% 50.0% 33.3%
5.5% 4.9% 6.1% 8.9% 11.5% 5.5% 4.9% 6.1% 6.3%
2018e 2019e 2020e

5,524.3 8,341.5 11,799.2

60.6% 51.0% 41.5%

5,157.3 7,735.9 10,830.2

60.0% 50.0% 40.0%

93.4% 92.7% 91.8%

367.0 605.6 969.0

70.0% 65.0% 60.0%

6.6% 7.3% 8.2%

Income Statement (Revenue from Previous Tab)
$ Values are in $'000s
Blue = hard coded (not calculated)
Green = from previous tab: "Revenue (More Detail)"

1Q11A 2Q11A 3Q11A 4Q11A

Revenue 4.5 7.0 21.5 32.0

YOY change
QOQ change 55.6% 207.1% 48.8%

COGS 1.4 2.1 6.5 9.6

% of sales 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Gross profit 3.2 4.9 15.1 22.4
Gross margin 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0%

Sales and marketing 0.8 1.2 3.7 5.4

% of sales 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%
Product development 0.7 1.1 3.4 5.1
% of sales 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
General and administrative 0.7 1.1 3.2 4.8
% of sales 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Depreciation 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.6
% of sales 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

Total expenses 3.7 5.8 17.8 26.6

% of sales 83.0% 83.0% 83.0% 83.0%
Yoy Change
Income (loss) from operations 0.8 1.2 3.7 5.4
% of sales 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%
EBITDA 1.0 1.5 4.7 7.0
% of sales 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0%
Other income (expense), net 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
% of sales 22.2% 14.3% 4.7% 3.1%
GAAP Income (loss) before income taxes 1.8 2.2 4.7 6.4
% of sales 39.2% 31.3% 21.7% 20.1%
GAAP Provision (benefit) for income taxes 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.9
Tax rate 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
GAAP Net income (loss) $ 1.2 $ 1.5 $ 3.3 $ 4.5
% of sales 27.5% 21.9% 15.2% 14.1%
GAAP EPS* $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00
YOY change
GAAP Shares 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165
* We will add Non-GAAP EPS in the valuation section.
 2011 1Q12A 2Q12A 3Q12A 4Q12A 2012 1Q13A 2Q13A 3Q13A

65.0 9.8 15.2 47.0 70.0 142.0 20.4 31.6 98.3

117.8% 117.1% 118.6% 118.8% 118.5% 108.5% 108.0% 109.0%
-69.4% 55.1% 209.2% 48.9% -70.8% 54.8% 210.7%

19.5 2.7 4.3 13.2 19.6 39.8 5.3 8.2 25.5

30.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0%
45.5 7.1 10.9 33.8 50.4 102.2 15.1 23.4 72.7
70.0% 72.0% 72.0% 72.0% 72.0% 72.0% 74.0% 74.0% 74.0%

11.1 1.6 2.4 7.5 11.2 22.7 3.1 4.7 14.7

17.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
10.4 1.5 2.3 7.1 10.5 21.3 2.9 4.4 13.8
16.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0%
9.8 1.4 2.1 6.6 9.8 19.9 2.7 4.1 12.8
15.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0%
3.3 0.5 0.8 2.4 3.5 7.1 1.0 1.6 4.9
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

54.0 7.6 11.9 36.7 54.6 110.8 14.9 23.1 71.7

83.0% 78.0% 78.0% 78.0% 78.0% 78.0% 73.0% 73.0% 73.0%

11.1 2.2 3.3 10.3 15.4 31.2 5.5 8.5 26.5

17.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0%
14.3 2.6 4.1 12.7 18.9 38.3 6.5 10.1 31.4
22.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0%
4.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
6.2% 10.2% 6.6% 2.1% 1.4% 2.8% 4.9% 3.2% 1.0%
15.1 3.2 4.3 11.3 16.4 35.2 6.5 9.5 27.5
23.2% 32.2% 28.6% 24.1% 23.4% 24.8% 31.9% 30.2% 28.0%
4.5 0.9 1.3 3.4 4.9 10.6 2.0 2.9 8.3
30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
$ 10.5 $ 2.2 $ 3.0 $ 7.9 $ 11.5 $ 24.7 $ 4.6 $ 6.7 $ 19.3
16.2% 22.5% 20.0% 16.9% 16.4% 17.4% 22.3% 21.1% 19.6%
$ 0.01 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.01 $ 0.01 $ 0.02 $ 0.00 $ 0.01 $ 0.02
78.8% 98.4% 143.6% 154.7% 134.2% 106.5% 119.6% 142.7%
1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165
 4Q13A 2013 1Q14A 2Q14A 3Q14A 4Q14A 2014 1Q15A 2Q15A

146.4 296.7 40.7 62.9 195.9 292.0 591.5 77.1 119.0

109.1% 108.9% 99.0% 98.8% 99.4% 99.5% 99.3% 89.5% 89.4%
49.0% -72.2% 54.6% 211.7% 49.1% -73.6% 54.4%

38.1 77.1 9.8 15.1 47.0 70.1 141.9 17.0 26.2

26.0% 26.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 22.0% 22.0%
108.3 219.6 30.9 47.8 148.9 221.9 449.5 60.1 92.9
74.0% 74.0% 76.0% 76.0% 76.0% 76.0% 76.0% 78.0% 78.0%

22.0 44.5 5.7 8.8 27.4 40.9 82.8 10.0 15.5

15.0% 15.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 13.0% 13.0%
20.5 41.5 5.3 8.2 25.5 38.0 76.9 9.2 14.3
14.0% 14.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 12.0% 12.0%
19.0 38.6 4.9 7.5 23.5 35.0 71.0 8.5 13.1
13.0% 13.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 11.0% 11.0%
7.3 14.8 2.0 3.1 9.8 14.6 29.6 3.9 6.0
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

106.9 216.6 27.7 42.7 133.2 198.6 402.2 48.6 75.0

73.0% 73.0% 68.0% 68.0% 68.0% 68.0% 68.0% 63.0% 63.0%

39.5 80.1 13.0 20.1 62.7 93.4 189.3 28.5 44.0

27.0% 27.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 37.0% 37.0%
46.8 94.9 15.0 23.3 72.5 108.0 218.8 32.4 50.0
32.0% 32.0% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 42.0% 42.0%
1.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 1.0
0.7% 1.3% 2.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 1.3% 0.8%
40.5 84.1 14.0 21.1 63.7 94.4 193.3 29.5 45.0
27.7% 28.3% 34.5% 33.6% 32.5% 32.3% 32.7% 38.3% 37.8%
12.2 25.2 4.2 6.3 19.1 28.3 58.0 8.4 12.8
30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 28.4% 28.4%
$ 28.4 $ 58.9 $ 9.8 $ 14.8 $ 44.6 $ 66.1 $ 135.3 $ 21.1 $ 32.2
19.4% 19.8% 24.1% 23.5% 22.8% 22.6% 22.9% 27.4% 27.1%
$ 0.02 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.01 $ 0.04 $ 0.06 $ 0.12 $ 0.02 $ 0.03
147.1% 138.7% 115.0% 121.4% 131.4% 133.0% 129.8% 115.4% 118.2%
1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165
 3Q15A 4Q15A 2015 1Q16E 2Q16E 3Q16E 4Q16E 2016e 2017e

371.7 554.1 1,121.9 138.7 214.3 669.0 997.4 2,019.4 3,439.2

89.7% 89.7% 89.7% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 70.3%
212.2% 49.1% -75.0% 54.4% 212.2% 49.1%

81.8 121.9 246.8 27.7 42.9 133.8 199.5 403.9 619.1

22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 18.0%
289.9 432.2 875.1 111.0 171.4 535.2 797.9 1,615.5 2,820.1
78.0% 78.0% 78.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 82.0%

48.3 72.0 145.8 16.6 25.7 80.3 119.7 242.3 378.3

13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 11.0%
44.6 66.5 134.6 15.3 23.6 73.6 109.7 222.1 343.9
12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 10.0%
40.9 61.0 123.4 13.9 21.4 66.9 99.7 201.9 309.5
11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 9.0%
18.6 27.7 56.1 6.9 10.7 33.5 49.9 101.0 172.0
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

234.2 349.1 706.8 80.5 124.3 388.0 578.5 1,171.3 1,822.8

63.0% 63.0% 63.0% 58.0% 58.0% 58.0% 58.0% 58.0% 53.0%
65.7% 65.7% 65.7% 65.7% 65.7% 55.6%
137.5 205.0 415.1 58.3 90.0 281.0 418.9 848.2 1,616.4
37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 47.0%
156.1 232.7 471.2 65.2 100.7 314.4 468.8 949.1 1,788.4
42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 47.0% 47.0% 47.0% 47.0% 47.0% 52.0%
1.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 4.0
0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
138.5 206.0 419.1 59.3 91.0 282.0 419.9 852.2 1,620.4
37.3% 37.2% 37.4% 42.7% 42.5% 42.1% 42.1% 42.2% 47.1%
39.3 58.5 119.0 17.8 27.3 84.6 126.0 255.6 486.1
28.4% 28.4% 28.4% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
$ 99.2 $ 147.5 $ 300.1 $ 41.5 $ 63.7 $ 197.4 $ 293.9 $ 596.5 $ 1,134.3
26.7% 26.6% 26.7% 29.9% 29.7% 29.5% 29.5% 29.5% 33.0%
$ 0.09 $ 0.13 $ 0.26 $ 0.04 $ 0.05 $ 0.17 $ 0.25 $ 0.51 $ 0.97
122.5% 123.2% 121.8% 96.4% 97.5% 99.0% 99.2% 98.8% 90.2%
1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165
 2018e 2019e 2020e

5,524.3 8,341.5 11,799.2

60.6% 51.0% 41.5%

883.9 1,167.8 1,415.9

16.0% 14.0% 12.0%
4,640.4 7,173.7 10,383.3
84.0% 86.0% 88.0%

552.4 750.7 943.9

10.0% 9.0% 8.0%
497.2 667.3 825.9
9.0% 8.0% 7.0%
441.9 583.9 708.0
8.0% 7.0% 6.0%
276.2 417.1 590.0
5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

2,651.7 3,586.8 4,483.7

48.0% 43.0% 38.0%
45.5% 35.3% 25.0%
2,872.6 4,754.7 7,315.5
52.0% 57.0% 62.0%
3,148.8 5,171.7 7,905.5
57.0% 62.0% 67.0%
4.0 4.0 4.0
0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
2,876.6 4,758.7 7,319.5
52.1% 57.0% 62.0%
863.0 1,427.6 2,195.9
30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
$ 2,013.6 $ 3,331.1 $ 5,123.7
36.5% 39.9% 43.4%
$ 1.73 $ 2.86 $ 4.40
77.5% 65.4% 53.8%
1,165 1,165 1,165
 Balance Sheet
$ Values are in $'000s

Blue = hard coded (not calculated)

Green = from other tabs
2011
Balance Sheet (in '000s).
1Q11A 2Q11A 3Q11A

Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents 13.2 11.6 13.7
Short-term investments 7.0 7.0 7.0
Accounts receivable 2.0 2.0 2.0
Accounts Receivable as a % of revenue 44.4% 28.6% 9.3%
Inventory 2.00 2.00 2.00
Inventory as a % of revenue 44.4% 28.6% 9.3%
Total Current Assets 24.2 22.6 24.7
Long Term Assets
**Equipment we own, net of accumulated depreciation and inclusive of capex. 0.2 0.6 1.7
Here is How We Calculate Capex (same as Purchase of Equipment)
Depreciation (linked to the Income Statement) 0.2 0.4 1.1
Capex (we need to calculate this here as it feeds into the C.F. Statement 0.5 0.7 2.2
Capex as a % of revenue 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Machine
Total Long Term Assets 0.2 0.6 1.7
TOTAL ASSETS 24.433 23.129 26.387

Current liabilities
Accounts payable 1.0 1.0 1.0
Accounts Payable as a % of revenue 22.2% 14.3% 4.7%
Short-term debt 13.2 10.4 10.4
Total Current Liabilities 14.2 11.4 11.4
Long Term Liabilities
Long-term debt 5.0 5.0 5.0
Total Long Term Liabilities 5.0 5.0 5.0
TOTAL LIABILITIES 19.2 16.4 16.4

Retained Earnings 1.2 2.8 6.0

Common Shares 4.0 4.0 4.0
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER'S EQUITY 5.2 6.8 10.0

TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY 24.4 23.1 26.4

Do Assets = Liabilities + Equity? YES YES YES
- - -
** The equipment that we own is equal to the amount of equipment we owned
in the previous quarter minus the amount tthat he equipment has depreciated
since the previous quarter PLUS the capex we spent to buy more equipment.
Please see the math/logic in the cells in the Equipment section above under Long
Term Assets. Thanks
1 FY 2012 FY 2013
4Q11A 2011 1Q12A 2Q12A 3Q12A 4Q12A 2012 1Q13A 2Q13A

19.9 19.9 14.7 16.3 17.8 22.8 22.8 32.7 36.4

7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
2.0 2.0 0.5 0.8 2.4 3.5 3.5 1.0 1.6
6.3% 6.3% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
2.00 2.00 1.08 1.67 5.17 7.70 7.70 2.25 3.48
6.3% 6.3% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%
30.9 30.9 23.3 25.7 32.3 41.0 41.0 43.0 48.4

3.3 3.3 3.7 4.5 6.9 10.4 10.4 11.4 13.0

1.6 3.3 0.5 0.8 2.4 3.5 7.1 1.0 1.6

3.2 6.5 1.0 1.5 4.7 7.0 14.2 2.0 3.2
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%

3.3 3.3 3.7 4.5 6.9 10.4 10.4 11.4 13.0

34.119 34.119 27.038 30.241 39.133 51.303 51.303 54.377 61.389

1.0 1.0 0.3 0.5 1.4 2.1 2.1 0.6 0.9

3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
13.6 13.6 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
14.6 14.6 5.3 5.5 6.4 7.1 7.1 5.6 5.9

5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
19.6 19.6 10.3 10.5 11.4 12.1 12.1 10.6 10.9

10.5 10.5 12.7 15.8 23.7 35.2 35.2 39.8 46.4

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
14.5 14.5 16.7 19.8 27.7 39.2 39.2 43.8 50.4

34.1 34.1 27.0 30.2 39.1 51.3 51.3 54.4 61.4

YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
- - - - - - - - -
2013 FY 2014 FY 201
3Q13A 4Q13A 2013 1Q14A 2Q14A 3Q14A 4Q14A 2014 1Q15A

42.1 56.9 56.9 78.4 87.1 104.6 143.6 143.6 188.9

7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
4.9 7.3 7.3 2.0 3.1 9.8 14.6 14.6 3.9
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
10.81 16.10 16.10 4.47 6.91 21.55 32.12 32.12 8.48
11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%
64.8 87.3 87.3 91.9 104.2 143.0 197.4 197.4 208.2

17.9 25.2 25.2 27.2 30.4 40.2 54.8 54.8 58.6

4.9 7.3 14.8 2.0 3.1 9.8 14.6 29.6 3.9

9.8 14.6 29.7 4.1 6.3 19.6 29.2 59.1 7.7
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%

17.9 25.2 25.2 27.2 30.4 40.2 54.8 54.8 58.6

82.657 112.471 112.471 119.108 134.552 183.129 252.125 252.125 266.802

2.9 4.4 4.4 1.2 1.9 5.9 8.8 8.8 2.3

3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
7.9 9.4 9.4 6.2 6.9 10.9 13.8 13.8 7.3

5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
12.9 14.4 14.4 11.2 11.9 15.9 18.8 18.8 12.3

65.7 94.1 94.1 103.9 118.7 163.3 229.4 229.4 250.5

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
69.7 98.1 98.1 107.9 122.7 167.3 233.4 233.4 254.5

82.7 112.5 112.5 119.1 134.6 183.1 252.1 252.1 266.8

YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
- - - - - - - - -
 2015 FY 2016 FYE
2Q15A 3Q15A 4Q15A 2015 1Q16E 2Q16E 3Q16E 4Q16E 2016e

209.7 257.5 353.6 353.6 442.1 485.3 590.1 791.5 791.5

7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
6.0 18.6 27.7 27.7 6.9 10.7 33.5 49.9 49.9
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
13.09 40.89 60.95 60.95 15.26 23.57 73.59 109.71 109.71
11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%
235.7 323.9 449.2 449.2 471.3 526.6 704.2 958.1 958.1

64.6 83.1 110.9 110.9 117.8 128.5 162.0 211.8 211.8

6.0 18.6 27.7 56.1 6.9 10.7 33.5 49.9 101.0

11.9 37.2 55.4 112.2 13.9 21.4 66.9 99.7 201.9
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%

64.6 83.1 110.9 110.9 117.8 128.5 162.0 211.8 211.8

300.308 407.083 560.091 560.091 589.120 655.085 866.122 1169.900 1169.900

3.6 11.2 16.6 16.6 4.2 6.4 20.1 29.9 29.9

3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
8.6 16.2 21.6 21.6 9.2 11.4 25.1 34.9 34.9

5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
13.6 21.2 26.6 26.6 14.2 16.4 30.1 39.9 39.9

282.7 381.9 529.5 529.5 571.0 634.7 832.1 1,126.0 1,126.0

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
286.7 385.9 533.5 533.5 575.0 638.7 836.1 1,130.0 1,130.0

300.3 407.1 560.1 560.1 589.1 655.1 866.1 1,169.9 1,169.9

YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
- - - - - - - - -
 FYE FYE FYE FYE
2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e

1,436.4 2,902.8 5,450.5 9,534.7

7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
172.0 276.2 417.1 590.0
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
378.3 607.7 917.6 1,297.9
11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%
1,993.7 3,793.6 6,792.1 11,429.6

383.8 660.0 1,077.1 1,667.0

172.0 276.2 417.1 590.0

343.9 552.4 834.2 1,179.9
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%

383.8 660.0 1,077.1 1,667.0

2377.448 4453.645 7869.220 13096.615

103.2 165.7 250.2 354.0

3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
108.2 170.7 255.2 359.0

5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
113.2 175.7 260.2 364.0

2,260.3 4,273.9 7,605.0 12,728.6

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
2,264.3 4,277.9 7,609.0 12,732.6

2,377.4 4,453.6 7,869.2 13,096.6

YES YES YES YES
- - - -
 Cash Flow Statement
$ Values are in $'000s
Blue = hard coded (not calculated)
Green = from other tabs
2011 FY
Cash Flow Statement: $ Values are in $'000s
1Q11A 2Q11A 3Q11A 4Q11A 2011
Operating Activities
Net Income 1.2 1.5 3.3 4.5 10.5
Increase in depreciation (+) 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.6 3.3
Increase in Accounts Receivable (-) N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Increase in Inventory (-) N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Increase in Accounts Payable (+) N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Cash From Operating Activities 1.5 1.9 4.3 6.1 13.8

Investing Activities
Purchases of equipment (same here as 'Capex') (0.5) (0.7) (2.2) (3.2) (6.5)
Net Cash From Investing Activities (0.5) (0.7) (2.2) (3.2) (6.5)

Financing Activities
Increase in Short Term Debt (+) N/A (2.8) 0.0 3.2 0.4
Increase in Long Term Debt (+) N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Increase in Common Shares (+) N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Cash From Financing Activities 0.0 (2.8) 0.0 3.2 0.4

Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash 1.0 (1.7) 2.2 6.1 7.7

Cash at beginning of period N/A 13.2 11.6 13.7 19.9

Cash at ending of period 11.6 13.7 19.9 19.9
Does $ from Our Balance Sheet reflected in our $ here? Yes Yes Yes Yes

1Q11A 2Q11A 3Q11A 4Q11A 2011

Free Cash Flow (this is Net Cash from Operating Activities - Capex)
1.0 1.2 2.2 2.9 7.3
 The Cash Flow Statement Forecasts are mainly from the Balance Sheet (i.e., 'working capital'*, capex, debt an
equity) and the Income Statement (net income and depreciation). *'working capital' is current assets and curr
liabilities). The Cash Flow Statement is easy to forecast as it is linked to the Income Statement and Balance Sh

2012 FY 2013 FY 2014

1Q12A 2Q12A 3Q12A 4Q12A 2012 1Q13A 2Q13A 3Q13A 4Q13A 2013 1Q14A 2Q14A 3Q14A 4Q14A

2.2 3.0 7.9 11.5 24.7 4.6 6.7 19.3 28.4 58.9 9.8 14.8 44.6 66.1
0.5 0.8 2.4 3.5 7.1 1.0 1.6 4.9 7.3 14.8 2.0 3.1 9.8 14.6
1.5 (0.3) (1.6) (1.2) 0.0 2.5 (0.6) (3.3) (2.4) 0.0 5.3 (1.1) (6.7) (4.8)
0.9 (0.6) (3.5) (2.5) 0.0 5.5 (1.2) (7.3) (5.3) 0.0 11.6 (2.4) (14.6) (10.6)
(0.7) 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.0 (1.5) 0.3 2.0 1.4 0.0 (3.2) 0.7 4.0 2.9
4.4 3.1 6.2 12.0 25.7 12.0 6.8 15.5 29.4 63.8 25.6 15.0 37.1 68.2

(1.0) (1.5) (4.7) (7.0) (14.2) (2.0) (3.2) (9.8) (14.6) (29.7) (4.1) (6.3) (19.6) (29.2)
(1.0) (1.5) (4.7) (7.0) (14.2) (2.0) (3.2) (9.8) (14.6) (29.7) (4.1) (6.3) (19.6) (29.2)

(8.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (8.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(8.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (8.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

(5.1) 1.6 1.5 5.0 2.9 10.0 3.6 5.7 14.8 34.1 21.5 8.8 17.5 39.0

19.9 14.7 16.3 17.8 22.8 22.8 32.7 36.4 42.1 56.9 56.9 78.4 87.1 104.6
14.7 16.3 17.8 22.8 22.8 32.7 36.4 42.1 56.9 56.9 78.4 87.1 104.6 143.6
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

1Q12A 2Q12A 3Q12A 4Q12A 2012 1Q13A 2Q13A 3Q13A 4Q13A 2013 1Q14A 2Q14A 3Q14A 4Q14A
3.4 1.6 1.5 5.0 11.5 10.0 3.6 5.7 14.8 34.1 21.5 8.8 17.5 39.0
ng capital'*, capex, debt and
al' is current assets and current
Statement and Balance Sheet!

FY 2015 FY 2016 FYE FYE FYE

2014 1Q15A 2Q15A 3Q15A 4Q15A 2015 1Q16E 2Q16E 3Q16E 4Q16E 2016e 2017e 2018e

135.3 21.1 32.2 99.2 147.5 300.1 41.5 63.7 197.4 293.9 596.5 1,134.3 2,013.6
29.6 3.9 6.0 18.6 27.7 56.1 6.9 10.7 33.5 49.9 101.0 172.0 276.2
0.0 10.7 (2.1) (12.6) (9.1) 0.0 20.8 (3.8) (22.7) (16.4) 0.0 (122.1) (104.3)
0.0 23.6 (4.6) (27.8) (20.1) 0.0 45.7 (8.3) (50.0) (36.1) 0.0 (268.6) (229.4)
0.0 (6.4) 1.3 7.6 5.5 0.0 (12.5) 2.3 13.6 9.9 0.0 73.3 62.6
145.9 52.9 32.7 84.9 151.5 322.1 102.4 64.6 171.7 301.1 697.5 988.8 2,018.8

(59.1) (7.7) (11.9) (37.2) (55.4) (112.2) (13.9) (21.4) (66.9) (99.7) (201.9) (343.9) (552.4)
(59.1) (7.7) (11.9) (37.2) (55.4) (112.2) (13.9) (21.4) (66.9) (99.7) (201.9) (343.9) (552.4)

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

86.8 45.2 20.8 47.8 96.1 209.9 88.5 43.2 104.8 201.4 437.9 644.9 1,466.4

143.6 143.6 188.9 209.7 257.5 353.6 353.6 442.1 485.3 590.1 791.5 791.5 1,436.4
143.6 188.9 209.7 257.5 353.6 353.6 442.1 485.3 590.1 791.5 791.5 1,436.4 2,902.8
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

2014 1Q15A 2Q15A 3Q15A 4Q15A 2015 1Q16E 2Q16E 3Q16E 4Q16E 2016e 2017e 2018e
86.8 45.2 20.8 47.8 96.1 209.9 88.5 43.2 104.8 201.4 437.9 644.9 1,466.4
 FYE FYE
2019e 2020e

3,331.1 5,123.7
417.1 590.0
(140.9) (172.9)
(309.9) (380.3)
84.5 103.7
3,381.9 5,264.1

(834.2) (1,179.9)
(834.2) (1,179.9)

0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0

2,547.7 4,084.2

2,902.8 5,450.5
5,450.5 9,534.7
Yes Yes

2019e 2020e
2,547.7 4,084.2