The Global Demography

At the end of this module, you are expected to:

1. Learn the global demographic trends;
2. Understand the current demographic condition of the world in the 21 st
century.

Demography Defined
Demography is the statistical study of human populations. It includes the
study of the size, structure, and distributions of different populations and
changes in them in response to birth, migration, aging, and death. It also
includes the analysis of the relationships between economic, social, cultural,
and biological process influencing a population (Crossman, 2017).
Demography is very useful for understanding social and economic problems
and identifying potential solutions. Demographers are engaged in social
planning, market research, insurance forecasting, labor market analysis,
economic development and so on. (Stockholm University, n.d.).

The importance of demography is clear for its scope. Since its scope is
increasing which already leads to its importance. Demography is concerned
with the growth and distribution of population in less developed countries as
well as underdevelopment and developed countries (Farooq, 2013):

1. Health Planning: Due to high fertility rate, health problems are created
both for mother and child. In most of the developing countries, married
women are facing pregnancies problem due to malnutrition. Also due to
ill health of mother, infant mortality rate is high in our country. High
fertility is connected to the child development. So, demography is
concerned with the fertility and mortality and studies the birth and death
rates. These health problems are solved by the demographer in the
establishment of health planning of the country. All the problem related
to health and its causes as well as its possible solutions is the work of
social demography.

2. Planning for Food Supply: Planning for food supply means availability
of adequate food for the total population. The inadequate food results in
the poor health, low growth, high mortality rates and low physical
activity. Food supply grows with the growth of population. The
undeveloped and underdeveloped countries are unable to meet the
demands of food supply. They depend on other countries for fulfillment of
their basic food needs. So, population study is important to meet the
demands of food of the poor countries through the aid of national as well
as international agencies.
3. Housing Planning: When the size of population is increasing, the
demand for housing is also increasing. Therefore data collected about

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 fertility, mortality, migration, urbanization and family formation gives
basis for the estimation of housing planning.

4. Employment Planning: Unemployment is a social and international

problem. From developed to underdeveloped as well as undeveloped
countries, the unemployment problem growing rapidly. A demographic
factor is the high dependency ratio in less developed countries. For
example; In Pakistan, four or five persons depends on the income of one
person. So, for employment planning, population study and dependency
ratio must be studied. Therefore demography studies all aspects of
population where it make planning for employment and unemployment
problem.

5. Educational Planning: Today every nation is concerned with providing

proper education to children. The numbers of children are constantly
increasing which creates educational problems. The demographers are
interested to make planning for these children of a specific area or the
whole country. Due to educational planning by demographers, these
children should be provided proper educational facilities.

6. Migration Planning: Most of the people are migrated to western

countries. It is necessary to estimate the trends of migration, the
immigrants, the emigrants and the heavy burden on other countries. It is
the study of social demography to make plans, to stop the problem. A
large number of emigrants from a country affects a population adversely
and a qualitative change occur. Because these emigrants may be experts
as well as skilled and qualified persons which affects the economy of a
country very badly. Due to immigration to a country, the population
growth takes place which is a hurdle for the development of a country.

The Global Demography

The current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in
2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, according to a new United
Nations report being launched today. With roughly 83 million people being
added to the world’s population every year, the upward trend in population
size is expected to continue, even assuming that fertility levels will continue
to decline (United Nations, 2017).

Birth rate is the demographic measure of the rate at which children are born.
The most well-known is the crude birth rate, which is the number of births
that occur each year per 1,000 people in the midyear population. It is called
“crude” because it does not take into account the possible effects of age
structure. If a population has an unusually large or small number of women
in childbearing age, then the crude birth rate will tend to be relatively high or
low regardless of the actual number of children a woman has. For this
reason, age adjusted birth rates are preferred for making comparisons, either
over time or between populations (Crossman, 2018).
 Top 10 Most Populous Countries (Time, n.d.):
1. China 1,384,688,986
2. India 1,296,834,042
3. United States 329,256,465
4. Indonesia 262,787,403
5. Brazil 208,846,892
6. Pakistan 207,862,518
7. Nigeria 195,300,343
8. Bangladesh 159,453,001
9. Russia 142,122,776
10. Japan 126,168,156

But, based on current trends, the list of the world's most populous nations
could look very different by 2060. Over the past half century, China has
remained in the top spot, but it is expected to be overtaken by India in 2022.
In 2020, India is predicted to have over 1,383,000 million citizens, compared
to China’s 1,402,000 million. Just eight years later, India is set to have gained
over 100 million people, while China’s population is only expected to have
increased by 1.4 million (Luxton, 2016).

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The huge growth in the world population over the past two centuries is
largely the result of advances in modern medicines and improvements in
living standards. These have significantly reduced infant, child and maternal
mortality, contributing to an increase in life expectancy. Although fertility
levels have declined, they have not fallen at the same pace as mortality levels.
The world population will continue to grow for decades to come. This is the
result of ‘population momentum’: Because of improved survival rates and
past high fertility levels, there are more women of reproductive age today.
This will contribute to a relatively large number of births, even if those
women have fewer children on average. Although population growth is,
today, largely attributable to population momentum, after 2060 it will almost
exclusively be driven by fertility levels in the world’s least developed
countries (UN Population Fund, n.d.).

Ageing Population
As fertility declines and life expectancy rises, the proportion of the
population above a certain age rises as well. This phenomenon, known as
population ageing, is occurring throughout the world.

In 2017, there are an estimated 962 million people aged 60 or over in the
world, comprising 13 per cent of the global population. The population aged
60 or above is growing at a rate of about 3 per cent per year. Currently,
Europe has the greatest percentage of population aged 60 or over (25 per
cent). Rapid ageing will occur in other parts of the world as well, so that by
2050 all regions of the world except Africa will have nearly a quarter or more
of their populations at ages 60 and above. The number of older persons in
the world is projected to be 1.4 billion in 2030 and 2.1 billion in 2050, and
could rise to 3.1 billion in 2100. Over the next few decades, a further increase
in the population of older persons is almost inevitable, given the size of the
cohorts born in recent decades.

Population ageing is projected to have a profound effect on the support ratio,

defined as the number of workers per retiree. Although it is difficult to know
the actual number of workers per retiree, a useful proxy is the ratio of the
numbers of persons who are likely to be workers or retirees by virtue of
their age. Thus, a potential support ratio can be defined as the number of
persons aged 20 to 64 divided by the number aged 65 or over. In 2017, Africa
has 12.9 persons aged 20 to 64 for each person aged 65 or above. This ratio
is 7.4 for Asia, 7.3 for Latin America and the Caribbean, 4.6 for Oceania, 3.8
for Northern
America and 3.3 for Europe. At 2.1, Japan in 2017 has the lowest potential
support ratio in the world, while those of nine European countries and the
United States Virgin Islands are also below 3. By 2050, seven countries in
Asia, 24 in Europe, and five in Latin America and the Caribbean are expected
to have potential support ratios below 2. These low values underscore the
fiscal and political pressures that many countries are likely to face in the
 coming decades in relation to public systems of health care, pensions and
social protections for a growing older population (United Nations, 2017).

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 Key Terms:
Population – all nationals present in, or temporarily absent from a country,
and aliens permanently settled in a country. This indicator shows the
number of people that usually live in an area.

Growth Rate/s - are the annual changes in population resulting from births,
deaths and net migration during the year.

Population Projection/s – are a common demographic tool. They provide a

basis for other statistical projections, helping governments in their decision
making. This indicator is measured in terms of annual growth rate and in
thousands of people.

Elderly Population – people aged 65 and over.

Elderly Dependency Rate – the ratio between the elderly population and
the working age (15-64 years) population.

Total Fertility Rate – the total number of children that would be born to
each woman if she were to live to the end of her child-bearing years and give
birth to children in alignment with the prevailing age-specific fertility rates.

References
Crossman, A. (2017, May 20). Demography: The Statistical Study of Human Populations.
Retrieved from https://www.thoughtco.com
Crossman, A. (2018, January 02). Birth Rate. Retrieved from https://www.thoughtco.com
Farooq, U. (2013, July 30). Importance of Demography. Retrieved from
http://www.studylecturenotes.com
Luxton, E. (2016, September 20). By 2060, This Country Will Have the World’s Largest
Population. Retrieved from https://www.weforum.org
Stockholm University (n.d.). Demography. Retrieved from https://www.suda.su.se
Time (n.d.). These Will Be the 10 Most Populated Countries in 2018. Retrieved from
time.com
UN Population Fund (n.d.). World Population Trends. Retrieved from
https://www.unfpa.org
United Nations (2017, June 21). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. Retrieved
from https://www.un.org