Random Events and Probability
Random Events and Probability
Random Events and Probability
1.1 Introduction
The term Probability refers the study of randomness and uncertainty.
In any situation in which one of a number of possible outcomes may occur, the
theory of probability provides methods for quantifying the chances, or likelihoods,
associated with the various outcomes.
。Tossing a properly balanced coin, it will fall with either a head or a tail showing.
C={LLL,RRR}=the event that all three cars turn in the same direction
Suppose that when the experiment is performed, the outcome is
LLL. Then the simple Event E1 has occurred and so also have
the events B and C (but not A).
Example when the number of pumps in use at each of two
=the event that the number of pumps in use is the same for both
C={(0,0), (0,1), (1,0), (1,1)} =the event that at most one pump is in
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1.3 Operations of Set Theory
Definition: Let A and B be events on the same sample space Ω:
so A ⊂ Ω and B ⊂ Ω.
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did occur.
1)Yes 2) No 3)No 4) Yes 5) No 6) Yes
7) No 8) Yes.
Answer: A ∩ B = ( A ∪ B).
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Properties of union, intersection, and complement
The following properties hold.
Distributive laws:
For any sets A, B, and C:
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Definition: Two events A and B are mutually exclusive, or
disjoint, if
This means events A and B cannot happen together. If A happens,
it excludes B from happening, and vice-versa.
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.
form a partition of A.
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Theorem Let A and B be events. Then,
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Example. 300 Australians were asked about their car preferences in
1998. Of the respondents, 33% had children. The respondents were asked
what sort of car they would like if they could choose any car at all. 13%
of respondents had children and chose a large car. 12% of respondents did
(b) either has children or would choose a large car (or both).
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Respondents were also asked their opinions on car reliability and
high importance.
Formulate events:
R = “considers reliability of high importance”,
F = “considers fuel consumption of high importance”.
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Probability that respondent considers either reliability or fuel consumption, or both, of
high importance.
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A3 denote the event that the selected student is enrolled in the music class.
To solve the problem, we must determine the value of P( A1 ∪ A2 ∪ A3 ) .
n n
P(=
Ai )
i ==
1
∑ P( A ) − ∑
i 1
i
1≤i < j ≤ n
P( Ai Aj ) + ∑
1≤i < j < k ≤ n
P ( Ai Aj Ak ) − + (−1) n −1 P( A1 An )
P ( A1 ∪ A2 ∪ A3 ) = P( A1 ) + P ( A2 ) + P ( A3 ) − P ( A1 ∩ A2 ) − P ( A2 ∩ A3 )
− P ( A1 ∩ A3 ) + P ( A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 )
= 175 / 200 = 7 / 8
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Example: For a 3-child family, possible outcomes from oldest to
youngest are:
b) The next year, Tom buys a pack of 40 Christmas cards, featuring 10 different
pictures with 4 cards of each picture. He selects 5 cards at random to send to his
great-aunts. What is the probability that at least two of the great-aunts receive the
same picture?
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Total number of outcomes is
So
the sample space S will contain 365k outcomes (all of which will be equally probable).
The number of outcomes in S for which all k birthdays will be different is P365, k
(since the first person’s birthday could be any one of the 365 days, the second
person’s birthday could then be any of the other 364 days, and so on. )
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Hence , the probability that all k persons will have different birthdays is
P365, k
.
365k
The probability p that at least two of the people will have the same birthday is
P365, k (365)!
p =1− =1− .
365 k
(365 − k )!365k
Numerical values of this probability p for various values of k are given in the following table.
The probability p that at least two people in a group of k people will have the same birthday
k p
5 0.027
10 0.117
15 0.253
20 0.411
22 0.476
23 0.507
25 0.569
30 0.706
40 0.891
50 0.970
60 0.994
The calculation in this example illustrates a common technique for solving probability problems.
If one wishes to compute the probability of some event A, it might be more straightforward to
calculate P(AC) and then use the fact that P(A)=1- P(AC). This idea is particularly useful when the
event A is of the form “at least n things happen” where n is small compared to how many things
could happen.
Example. Tossing a Coin. Suppose that a fair coin is to be tossed 10 times, and it is
desired to determine (a) the probability p of obtaining exactly three heads and (b) the
probability p’ of obtaining three or fewer heads.
Solution.
The total possible number of different sequences of 10 heads and tails is 210.
(it may be assumed that each of these sequences is equally probable.)
The number of these sequences that contains exactly three heads will be equal to the
number of different arrangements that can be formed with three heads and seven tails.
Here are some of those arrangements:
HHHTTTTTTT HHTHTTTTTT HHTTHTTTTT TTHTHTHTTT, etc.
Each such arrangement is equivalent to a choice of where to put the 3heads among the
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10
10 tosses, so there are such arrangements. The probability of obtaining exactly
3
three heads is then
10
p = 10 = 0.1172.
3
2
45
selected at random means that each of these possible combinations is equally
10
probable. Therefore, we must find the number of these combinations that contain
exactly three boys and seven girls.
When a combination of three boys and seven girls is formed, the number of different
combinations in which three boys can be selected from the 15 available boys is
15
, and the number of different combinations in which seven girls can be selected
3
30
from the 30 available girls is . Since each of these combinations of three boys
7
can be paired with each of the combinations of seven girls to form a distinct sample,
15 30
the number of combinations containing exactly three boys is . Therefore,
3 7
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15 30
the desired probability is
p =
3 7
45
10
Example. (Playing Cards) Suppose that a deck of 52 cards containing four aces is
shuffled thoroughly and the cards are then distributed among four player so that each
player receives 13 cards. We shall determine the probability that each player will
receive one ace.
Solution. The number of possible different combinations of the four positions in the
52
deck occupied by the four aces is . If each player is to receive one ace, then there must
4
be exactly one ace among the 13 cards that the first player will receive and one ace among each of
the remaining three groups of 13 cards that the other three players will receive. In other words,
there are 13 possible positions for the ace that the first player is to receive, 13 other possible
positions for the ace that the second player is to receive, and so on. Therefore, among the
52
possible combinations of the positions for the four aces, exactly 134 of these combinations
4
will lead to the desired result. Hence, the probability p that each player will receive one ace is
134
p= = 0.1055
52
4
One way to construct a sample space for the experiment of drawing the winning
combination is to consider the possible sequences of draws. That is, each outcome
consists of an ordered subset of six numbers chosen from the 30 available numbers.
There are P30,6=30!/24! such outcomes. With this sample spaces S , we can calculate
probabilities for events such as
A={the draw contains the numbers 1,14,15,20,23, and 27}
B={one of the numbers drawn is 15}
C={the first number drawn is less than 10}
6! 6!24! 6 × P29,5 6
P(A)= = = 0.00000168 , P(B)= = = 0.2
P30, 6 30! P30, 6 30
9 × P29,5 3
P(C)= = = 0.3
P30, 6 10
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1.6 Multinomial Coefficients
We learn how to count the number of ways to partition a finite set into more than two disjoint
subsets. The generalization is useful when outcomes consist of several parts selected from a fixed
number of distinct types.
We begin with a fairly simple example that will illustrate the general ideas of this section.
20
ways. Then to split the remaining 12 members into committee B and C there are
8
12
ways to do it. Every choice of committee A can be paired with every one of the splits of the
8
remaining 12 members into committees B and C. Hence the number of assignments into three
committees is the product of the numbers combinations for the two parts of the assignment,
In general, suppose that n distinct elements are to be divided into k different groups ( k ≥ 2 ) in
such a way that, for j=1,2,…,k, the jth group contains exactly nj elements, where n1+ n2+…+ nk =n.
It is desired to determine the number of different ways in which the n elements can be divided into
the k groups. The n1 elements in the first group can be selected from the n available elements in
n
different ways. After the n1 elements in the first group have been selected, the n2 elements in
n1
n − n1
the second group can be selected from the remaining n-n1 elements in different ways.
n2
Hence, the total number of different ways of selecting the elements fro both the first group and the
n n − n1
second group is . It follows from the preceding explanation that, for each
1 2
n n
j=1,2…,k-2 after the first j groups have been formed, the number of different ways in which the
nj+1 elements in the next group (j+1) can be selected from the remaining n-n1-…-nj elements is
n − n1 − n j
.After the elements of group k-1 have been selected, the remaining nk elements
n j +1
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must then form the last group. Hence, the total number of different ways of dividing the n
elements into the k groups is
n n − n1 n − n1 − n2 n − n1 − nk − 2 n!
= ,
n1 n2 n3 nk −1 n1!n2 ! nk !
Where the last formula follows from writing the binomial coefficients in terms of factorials.
n! n
The number , which we shall denote by ,is called a multinomial
n1!n2 ! nk ! n1 , n2 ,, nk
coefficient.
The name multinomial coefficient derives from the appearance of the symbol in the
multinomial theorem.
Theorem (Multinomial Theorem). For all numbers x1 , x2 , , xk and each positive
integer n,
n n1 n 2
( x1 + x2 + + xk ) n = ∑ x1 x2 xk nk , where the summation extends
1 2
n , n , , nk
n1 + n2 + + nk = n .
20 20!
= 2
= 62,355,150.
8,8,4 (8!) 4!
.
probability p that each of the six different numbers will appear twice.
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outcomes that would contain each of the six numbers 1, 2, .., 6 exactly twice will be
equal to the number of different possible arrangements of these 12 elements. This
number can be determined by evaluating the multinomial coefficient for which n=12,
12 12! 12!
= 6
, the required probability p is p= = 0.0034 .
2,2,2,2,2,2 (2!) (2!) 6 612
player A will receive six hearts, player B will receive four hearts, player
C will receive two hearts, and player D will receive one heart.
Solution. The total number N of different ways in which the 52 cards can be distributed among
52 52!
N = = 4
13,13,13,13 (13!)
We must now calculate the number M of ways of distributing the cards so that each player
receives the required number of hearts. The number of different ways in which the hearts can be
distributed to players A, B, C, and D so that the numbers of hearts they receive are 6, 4, 2, and 1,
13 13!
respectively, is = .
6,4,2,1 6!4!2!1!
Also, the number of different ways in which the other 39 cards can then be distributed to the four
players so that each will have a total of 13 cards is
39 39!
= .
7,9,11,12 7!9!11!12!
13! 39!
( )
Therefore, the required probability p is p == 6!4!2!1! 7!9!11!12! = 0.00196.
52!
( )
(13!) 4
There is another approach to this problem. The number of possible different combinations of the
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52
13 positions in the deck occupied by the hearts is . If player A is to receive six hearts, there
13
13
are possible combinations of the six positions these hearts occpy among the 13 cards that
6
13
A will receive. Similarly, if player B is to receive four hearts, there are possible
4
13
combinations of their positions among the 13 cards that B will receive. There are possible
2
13
combinations for player C, and there is possible combinations for player D. Hence,
1
Hw. P15/7,11
P21/1,3,7,11
P25/1,3,6,8
P32/1,3,5,7,9
P41/7,9,13,17
P45/1,3,7,9
P50/1,2,3,5,7,
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