PROBABILITY EDDIE G.

SANTILLAN

THEORY JR., ECE

TOPICS:
INTRODUCTION
PROBABILITIES
EVENTS
COMBINATIONS OF EVENTS
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
PROBABILITIES OF EVENT INTERSECTIONS
POSTERIOR PROBABILITIES
COUNTING TECHNIQUES
PROBABILITIES

INTRODUCTION
Jointly with statistics, probability theory is a branch of
mathematics that has been developed to deal with uncertainty.

To cope with processes or experiments that involved uncertain or

random outcomes, the theory of probability has been developed
as a scientific tool dealing with chance.
probability theory provides the basis for the science of statistical
inference through experimentation and data analysis—an area of
crucial importance in an increasingly quantitative world.
PROBABILITIES

Sample Spaces
The sample space S of an experiment is a set consisting of all of
the possible experimental outcomes.

Example 1:
An engineer in charge of the maintenance of a particular machine
notices that its breakdowns can be characterized as due to an
electrical failure within the machine, a mechanical failure
of some component of the machine, or operator misuse. When the
machine is running, the engineer is uncertain what will be the cause
of the next breakdown.
S = {electrical, mechanical, misuse}
PROBABILITIES

Example 2:
A company sells computer chips in boxes of 500, and each chip can
be classified as either satisfactory or defective. The number of
defective chips in a particular box is uncertain, and
the sample space is

S = {0 defectives, 1 defective, 2 defectives, 3 defectives, 4

defectives, . . . , 499 defectives, 500 defectives}
PROBABILITIES

Example 3:
A manager supervises the operation of three power plants, plant X,
plant Y, and plant Z. At any given time, each of the three plants can
be classified as either generating electricity (1) or being idle (0). With
the notation (0, 1, 0) used to represent the situation where plant Y is
generating electricity but plants X and Z are both idle, the sample
space for the status of the three plants at a particular point in time is

S = {(0, 0, 0) (0, 0, 1) (0, 1, 0) (0, 1, 1) (1, 0, 0) (1, 0, 1) (1, 1, 0) (1,

1, 1)}
PROBABILITIES
A usual six-sided die has a sample space
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Sample space for rolling two dice

Diagram of the sample space for this example, where the sample space is
represented by a box containing the individual outcomes are called Venn
diagrams.
PROBABILITIES
A set of probability values for an experiment with a sample space S
= {O1, O2, . . . , On} consists of some probabilities
p 1, p2, . . . , p n

that satisfy
0 ≤ p1 ≤ 1, 0 ≤ p2 ≤ 1, . . . , 0 ≤ pn ≤ 1

and
p 1 + p2 + · · · + p n = 1

The probability of outcome Oi occurring is said to be pi, and this is

written
P(Oi) = pi.
PROBABILITIES
A fair die will have each of the six outcomes equally likely.
P(1) = P(2) = P(3) = P(4) = P(5) = P(6) = 1/6

An example of a biased die would be one for which

P(1) = 0.10, P(2) = 0.15, P(3) = 0.15,
P(4) = 0.15, P(5) = 0.15, P(6) = 0.30
EVENTS
An event A is a subset of the sample space S. It collects outcomes
of particular interest. The probability of an event A, P(A), is
obtained by summing the probabilities of the outcomes contained
within the event A.
EVENTS
COMPLEMENTS OF EVENT

The event A’, the complement of an event A, is the event consisting of

everything in the sample space S that is not contained within the event A.
In all cases

P(A) + P(A’) = 1

Events that consist of an individual outcome are sometimes referred to as

elementary events or simple events. If an event is defined to be a
particular single outcome, then its probability is just the probability of
that outcome. If an event is defined to be the whole sample space, then
obviously its probability is one.
EVENTS
EXAMPLE:
Consider the following probability values for the number of defective
chips in a box of
500 chips:
P(0 defectives) = 0.02, P(1 defective) = 0.11,
P(2 defectives) = 0.16, P(3 defectives) = 0.21,
P(4 defectives) = 0.13, P(5 defectives) = 0.08
and suppose that the probabilities of the additional elements of the
sample space (6 defectives, 7 defectives,. . . , 500 defectives) are
unknown. The company is thinking of claiming that each box has no
more than 5 defective chips, and it wishes to calculate the probability
that the claim is correct.
EVENTS
ANSWER:
The event correct consists of the six outcomes listed above, so that

correct = {0 defectives, 1 defective, 2 defectives, 3 defectives,

4 defectives, 5 defectives} ⊂ S

The probability of the claim being correct is then

P(correct) = P(0 defectives) + · · · + P(5 defectives)

= 0.02 + 0.11 + 0.16 + 0.21 + 0.13 + 0.08 = 0.71 or 71%
EVENTS
EXAMPLE:
Consider the event A that there are no more than two errors in a
software product.
P(0 errors) = 0.05, P(1 error) = 0.08, P(2 errors) = 0.35
Solution:
This event is given by
A = {0 errors, 1 error, 2 errors} ⊂ S
Its probability is
P(A) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) = 0.05 + 0.08 + 0.35 = 0.48
The probability of the complement of the event A is
P(A’) = 1 − P(A) = 1 − 0.48 = 0.52
EVENTS
EXAMPLE:
A manager supervises the operation of three power plants, plant X, plant Y,
and plant Z. At any given time, each of the three plants can be classified as
either generating electricity (1) or being idle (0).
S = {(0, 0, 0) (0, 0, 1) (0, 1, 0) (0, 1, 1) (1, 0, 0) (1, 0, 1) (1, 1, 0) (1, 1, 1)}
a. The event that plant X is idle.
b. The probability of the event in (a). (32%)
c. The probability that plant X generate electricity. (68%)
d. The probability that at least two of the three plants are generating
electricity. (70%)
e. The probability that at least two plants are idle. (30%)
EVENTS
EXAMPLE:
a. What is the probability of an even score on the roll of a die? (1/2)
b. The probability of having a sum equal to 6 when rolling two dice?
(5/36)
EVENTS
EXAMPLE:
c. What is the probability of an event that at least one of the two dice
records a 6? (11/36)
d. What is the probability of an event that a card drawn from a pack
of cards belongs to the heart suit? (1/4)
EVENTS
EXAMPLE:
e. What is the probability of an event that the event that a picture
card (jack, queen, or king) is drawn? (3/13)
COMBINATIONS OF
EVENTS
INTERSECTIONS OF EVENTS
The event A ∩ B is the intersection of the events A and B and
consists of the outcomes that are contained within both events A
and B. The probability of this event, P(A ∩ B), is the probability
that both events A and B occur simultaneously.

Events A and B The event A ∩ B

COMBINATIONS OF
EVENTS
INTERSECTIONS OF EVENTS

A ∩ A’ = ∅
where ∅ is referred to as the “empty set.”

P(A ∩ A’ ) = P(∅) = 0
COMBINATIONS OF
EVENTS

The event A ∩ B The event A ∩ B’

COMBINATIONS OF
EVENTS
The following two equalities hold in general for all events A and B:
P(A ∩ B) + P(A ∩ B‘) = P(A)
P(A ∩ B) + P(A’ ∩ B) = P(B)
Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive if A ∩ B = ∅
so that they have no outcomes in common.
COMBINATIONS OF
EVENTS
Some other simple results concerning the intersections of events are
as follows:
A∩B=B∩A A∩A=A
A∩S=A A∩∅=∅
A ∩ A’ = ∅ A ∩ (B ∩ C) = (A ∩ B) ∩ C
COMBINATIONS OF
EVENTS
UNIONS OF EVENTS
The event A ∪ B is the union of events A and B and consists of
the outcomes that are contained within at least one of the events A
and B. The probability of this event, P(A ∪ B), is the probability
that at least one of the events A and B occurs.
COMBINATIONS OF
EVENTS
Since the probability of A ∪ B is obtained as the sum of the
probability values of the outcomes within these three (mutually
exclusive) events, the following result is obtained:

P(A ∪ B) = P(A ∩ B’ ) + P(A’ ∩ B) + P(A ∩ B)

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

If the events A and B are mutually exclusive so that P(A ∩ B) = 0,

then
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)
COMBINATIONS OF
EVENTS
The event A ∪ B The event A’ ∪ B’
COMBINATIONS OF
EVENTS
IDENTITIES:
1. (A ∪ B)’ = A’ ∩ B’
2. (A ∩ B)’ = A’ ∪ B’
3. A ∪ B = B ∪ A
4. A ∪ A = A
5. A ∪ S = S
6. A ∪ ∅ = A
7. A ∪ A’ = S
8. A ∪ (B ∪ C) = (A ∪ B) ∪ C
COMBINATIONS OF
EVENTS
EXAMPLE:
A company that manufactures television sets performs a final quality check on
each appliance before packing and shipping it. The quality check has two
components, the first being an evaluation of the quality of the picture obtained
on the television set, and the second being
an evaluation of the appearance of the television set, which looks for scratches
or other visible deformities on the appliance. Each of the two evaluations is
graded as Perfect, Good, Satisfactory, or Fail.
The company has decided that an appliance that fails on either of the two
evaluations will not be shipped. Furthermore, as an additional conservative
measure to safeguard its reputation, it has decided that appliances that score an
evaluation of Satisfactory on both accounts will
also not be shipped.
COMBINATIONS OF
EVENTS
EXAMPLE:
A. What is the event that the appliance will not shipped?
B. What the probability of the event in A? (0.074)
C. The event where the picture is satisfactory or fail and its
probability. (0.178)
D. The probability of the event that he appliance is not shipped and
the picture is evaluated as being either Satisfactory or Fail. (0.055)
E. The appliance is not shipped and the appliance was either not
shipped or the picture was evaluated as being either Satisfactory or
Fail. (0.197)
COMBINATIONS OF
EVENTS
COMBINATIONS OF THREE OR MORE EVENTS

Union of Three Events

The probability of the union of three events A, B, and C is the sum
of the probability values of the simple outcomes that are contained
within at least one of the three events. It can also be calculated from
the expression
P(A ∪ B ∪ C) = [P(A) + P(B) + P(C)] − [P(A ∩ B) + P(A ∩ C) + P(B
∩ C)] + P(A ∩ B ∩ C)
COMBINATIONS OF
EVENTS
Union of Mutually Exclusive Events
For a sequence A1, A2, . . . , An of mutually exclusive events, the
probability of the union of the events is given by
P(A1 ∪ · · · ∪ An) = P(A1) + · · · + P(An)

Sample Space Partitions

A partition of a sample space is a sequence A1, A2, . . . , An of
mutually exclusive events for which
A1 ∪ · · · ∪ An = S
Each outcome in the sample space is then contained within one and
only one of the events Ai.
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY
Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of event A conditional on event B is

P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B)/ P(B)

for P(B) > 0. It measures the probability that event A occurs when
it is known that event B occurs.
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY
 If A∩B = ∅ for mutually exclusive events, this intuitive
reasoning is in agreement with the formula
P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B)/P(B) = 0/P(B) = 0.
 If B ⊂ A (A ∩ B = B), this intuitive reasoning is in
agreement with the formula
P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B)/P(B) = P(B)/P(B) = 1.
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY
EXAMPLE:

Suppose that event B is known to occur. In other words, suppose

that it is known that the outcome occurring is one of the five
outcomes contained within the event B. What then is the conditional
probability of event A occurring? (0.464)
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY
Consider Figure 1.57 that illustrates the sample space
for the number of defective chips in a box of 500 chips,
and recall that the event correct, with a probability of
P(correct) = 0.71, consists of the six outcomes
corresponding to no more than five defectives.
What is the probability of no defectives conditional on
there being no more than five defectives?

(This conditional probability indicates that whereas 2%

of all the boxes contain no defectives, 2.8% of the
satisfied customers purchased boxes that contained no
defectives.)
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY
Suppose it is known that at least two out of the three plants are
generating electricity (event B). What is the probability of plant X
being idle (event A)? (0.18/0.70 = 0.257)
SOLUTION:
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY
Suppose that a technician takes a television set from a pile of sets
that could not be shipped. What is the probability that the appliance
taken by the technician has a picture graded as either Satisfactory or
Fail? (0.743)
SOLUTION:
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY
EXERCISE:
A. If somebody rolls a die without showing you but announces that
the result is even, what is the chance that a 6 has been obtained ?
SOLUTION:
P(6|even) = P(6 ∩ even)/P(even) = P(6)/P(even)
= P(6)/[P(2) + P(4) + P(6)] = 1/6/[1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6] = 1/3
B. Suppose that somebody rolls two dice (red and blue) without
showing you but announces that at least one 6 has been scored. What
then is the probability that the red die scored a 6? (6/11)
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY
EXERCISE:
C. Suppose that somebody draws a card and announces that it is
from the heart suit. What then is the probability that it is a picture
card?
(3/13)
D. If it is known that a card from the heart suit is obtained, then
intuitively the conditional probability of the card being A?
(1/13)
PROBABILITIES OF
EVENT INTERSECTIONS
PROBABILITIES OF EVENT INTERSECTIONS
The probability of the intersection of a series of events A1, . . . ,
An can be calculated from the expression

P(A1 ∩ · · · ∩ An) = P(A1) × P(A2|A1) × P(A3|A1 ∩ A2) ×

· · · × P(An|A1 ∩ · · · ∩ An−1)
PROBABILITIES OF
EVENT INTERSECTIONS
Example:
Suppose that two cards are drawn at random without replacement
from a pack of cards. Let A be the event that the first card drawn
is from the heart suit, and let B be the event that the second card
drawn is from the heart suit. What is P(A∩ B), the probability that
both cards are from the heart suit?
Answer:
P(A ∩ B) =156 / 2652 = 3/51
or
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B|A) = (1/4) × (12/51) = 3/51
PROBABILITIES OF
EVENT INTERSECTIONS
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Two events A and B are said to be independent events if

P(A|B) = P(A), P(B|A) = P(B), and P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B)

Any one of these three conditions implies the other two. The
interpretation of two events being independent is that knowledge
about one event does not affect the probability of the other event.

INTERSECTIONS OF INDEPENDENT EVENTS

The probability of the intersection of a series of independent
events A1, . . . , An is simply given by
P(A1 ∩ · · · ∩ An) = P(A1) P(A2) · · · P(An)
PROBABILITIES OF
EVENT INTERSECTIONS
EXAMPLE:
A. Two cards are drawn from a pack of cards, and where A is the
event that the first card drawn is from the heart suit and B is the
event that the second card drawn is from the heart suit. Suppose
that now the drawings are made with replacement. What is P(A ∩
B) in this case?
(1/16)
PROBABILITIES OF
EVENT INTERSECTIONS
PROBABILITY TREES
EXAMPLE:
Suppose that 9 out of the 500 chips in a particular box are defective, and
suppose that 3 chips are sampled at random from the box without
replacement. If each of the 3 chips sampled is tested to determine
whether it is defective (1) or satisfactory (0), the sample space has eight
outcomes. Create a probability tree.
Let:
A/A’ = first chip (defective/not defective),
B/B’ = second chip (defective/not defective),
C/C’ = third chip (defective/not defective)
The probability values of the eight outcomes can be calculated using a
probability tree.
PROBABILITIES OF
EVENT INTERSECTIONS
EXAMPLE:
A satellite launch system is controlled by a computer (computer 1) that
has two identical backup computers (computers 2 and 3). Normally,
computer 1 controls the system, but if it has a malfunction then
computer 2 automatically takes over. If computer 2 malfunctions then
computer 3 automatically takes over, and if computer 3 malfunctions
there is a general system shutdown.
S = {computer 1 in use, computer 2 in use, computer 3 in use, system
failure}
Suppose that a computer malfunctions with a probability of 0.01 and that
malfunctions of the three computers are independent of each other. Also,
let the events A, B, and C be, respectively, the events that computers 1,
2, and 3 malfunction.
PROBABILITIES OF
EVENT INTERSECTIONS
PROBABILITIES OF
EVENT INTERSECTIONS
EXAMPLE:
A company sells a certain type of car that it assembles in one of four
possible locations. Plant I supplies 20% of the cars; plant II, 24%;
plant III, 25%; and plant IV, 31%. A customer buying a car does not
know where the car has been assembled, and so the probabilities of a
purchased car being from each of the four plants can be thought of as
being 0.20, 0.24, 0.25, and 0.31. Each new car sold carries a one-year
bumper-to-bumper warranty. The company has collected data that
show
P(claim|plant I) = 0.05 P(claim|plant II) = 0.11
P(claim|plant III) = 0.03 P(claim|plant IV) = 0.08
Which assembly plants do the best job?
PROBABILITIES OF
EVENT INTERSECTIONS
SOLUTION:
PROBABILITIES OF
EVENT INTERSECTIONS
EXAMPLE:
A. Suppose that two cards are drawn from a pack of cards without replacement.
What is the probability that exactly one card from the heart suit is obtained?

P(exactly one heart) = P(first card heart, second card not heart)
+ P(first card not heart, second card heart) = (13/52 × 39/51) + (39/52 × 13/51)
= 13/34 = 0.382

B. Suppose that two cards are drawn from a pack of cards with replacement.
What is the probability that exactly one card from the heart suit is obtained?
P(exactly one heart) = P(first card heart, second card not heart)
+ P(first card not heart, second card heart)
= (1/4 × ¾) + (3/4 × ¼) = 3/8 = 0.375
POSTERIOR
PROBABILITIES
LAW OF TOTAL PROBABILITY
If A1, . . . , An is a partition of a sample space, then the probability
of an event B can be obtained from the probabilities P(Ai) and
P(B|Ai) using the formula

P(B) = P(A1) P(B|A1) + · · · + P(An) P(B|An)

POSTERIOR
PROBABILITIES
EXAMPLE: Car Warranties
If A1, A2, A3, and A4 are, respectively, the events that a car is assembled in
plants I, II, III, and IV, then they provide a partition of the sample space, and
the probabilities P(Ai) are the supply proportions of the four plants.
If B is the event that a claim is made, then the conditional probabilities P(B|
Ai) are the claim rates for the four individual plants, so that
P(claim|plant I) = 0.05 P(claim|plant II) = 0.11
P(claim|plant III) = 0.03 P(claim|plant IV) = 0.08

P(B) = P(A1)P(B|A1) + P(A2)P(B|A2) + P(A3)P(B|A3) + P(A4)P(B|A4)

P(B) = (0.20 × 0.05) + (0.24 × 0.11) + (0.25 × 0.03) + (0.31 × 0.08)
P(B) = 0.0687
as obtained before.
POSTERIOR
PROBABILITIES
BAYES’ THEOREM
If A1, . . . , An is a partition of a sample space, then the posterior
probabilities of the events Ai conditional on an event B can be
obtained from the probabilities P(Ai) and P(B|Ai) using the formula

P(Ai|B) = P(Ai) P(B|Ai)/

HISTORICAL NOTE
Thomas Bayes was born in London, England, in 1702. He was
ordained and ministered at a Presbyterian church in Tunbridge Wells,
about 35 miles outside London. He was elected a Fellow of the Royal
Society in 1742 and died on April 17, 1761. His work on posterior
probabilities was discovered in his papers after his death.
COUNTING
TECHNIQUES
MULTIPLICATION
RULE
If an experiment consists of
k components for which the
number of possible outcomes
are n1, . . . , nk, then the total
number of experimental
outcomes (the size of the
sample space) is equal to

n1 × n2 × · · · × nk
COUNTING
TECHNIQUES
A side panel for a car is made from a sheet of metal in the following
way. The metal sheet is first sent to a cleaning machine, then to a
pressing machine, and then to a cutting machine. The process is
completed by a painting machine followed by a polishing machine.
Suppose that there are six cleaning machines, three pressing
machines,
eight cutting machines, five painting machines, and eight polishing
machines.
The number of possible “pathways” through the manufacturing
process is
COUNTING
TECHNIQUES
EXAMPLE:
A chemical engineer wishes to conduct an experiment to determine
how four factors (electrical charges, density of the coating material,
temperature of the cloud chamber, and speed at which the fiber is
passed through the chamber) affect the quality of the coating. The
engineer is interested in comparing three charge levels, five density
levels, four temperature levels, and three speed levels. What is the
total number of possible experimental conditions ?
COUNTING
TECHNIQUES
FACTORIALS
If n is a positive integer, the quantity n! called “n factorial” is defined
to be
n! = n(n − 1)(n − 2) · · · (1)
Also, the quantity 0! is taken to be equal to 1.

PERMUTATIONS
A permutation of k objects from n objects (n ≥ k) is an ordered
sequence of k objects selected without replacement from the group of
n objects. The number of possible permutations of k objects from n
objects is
= n(n − 1)(n − 2) · · · (n − k + 1) = n!/(n − k)!
COUNTING
TECHNIQUES
EXAMPLE:
A. A food company has four different recipes for a potential new
product and wishes to compare them through consumer taste tests. In
these tests, a participant is given the four types of food to taste in a
random order and is asked to rank various aspects of their taste. In
how many ways can the four products be ranked? (24)

B. In a taste test, each participant samples eight products and is asked

to pick the best, the second best, and the third best. How many
possible ways are there? (336)
COUNTING
TECHNIQUES
COMBINATIONS
A combination of k objects from n objects (n ≥ k) is an unordered
collection of k objects selected without replacement from the group
of n objects. The number of possible combinations of k objects from
n objects is
COUNTING
TECHNIQUES
EXAMPLE:
A. Suppose that in the taste test, each participant samples eight
products and is asked to select the three best products, but not in any
particular order. What is the number of possible answers to the
test? (56)
B. Suppose again that 9 out of 500 chips in a particular box are
defective, and that 3 chips are sampled at random from the box
without replacement. What is the total number of possible samples?
What is the probability of choosing 3 defective chips? (20,708,500)
& (4.0 x 10-6)
COUNTING
TECHNIQUES
EXAMPLE:
C. The probability that the number samples that contains exactly 1
defective chip in B. (0.0522)

D. Suppose that four cards are taken at random without replacement

from a pack of cards. What is the probability that two kings and two
queens are chosen? (1.33 x 10-4)
ASSIGNMENT:
1. A poker hand consists of five cards chosen at random from a pack of
cards.
(a) How many different hands are there?
(b) How many hands consist of all hearts?
(c) How many hands consist of cards all from the same suit (a “flush”)?
(d) What is the probability of being dealt a flush?
(e) How many hands contain all four aces?
(f) How many hands contain four cards of the same number or picture?
(g) What is the probability of being dealt a hand containing four cards of
the same number or picture?
2. In an experiment to test iron strengths, three different ores, four
different furnace temperatures, and two different cooling methods are to
be considered. Altogether, how many experimental configurations are
possible?
ASSIGNMENT:
3. A company sells five types of wheelchairs, with type A being 12%
of the sales, type B being 34% of the sales, type C being 7% of the
sales, type D being 25% of the sales, and type E being 22% of the
sales. In addition, 19% of the type A wheelchair sales are motorized,
50% of the type B wheelchair sales are motorized, 4% of the type C
wheelchair sales are motorized, 32% of the type D wheelchair sales
are motorized, and 76% of the type E wheelchair sales are motorized.
(a) If a motorized wheelchair is sold, what is the probability that it is
of type C?
(b) If a nonmotorized wheelchair is sold, what is the probability that
it is of type D?
ASSIGNMENT:
4. Suppose it is known that 1% of the population suffers from a
particular disease. A blood test has a 97% chance of identifying the
disease for diseased individuals, but also has a 6% chance of falsely
indicating that a healthy person has the disease.
(a) What is the probability that a person will have a positive blood
test?
(b) If your blood test is positive, what is the chance that you have the
disease?
(c) If your blood test is negative, what is the chance that you do not
have the disease?
ASSIGNMENT:
5. Suppose that a bag contains 43 red balls, 54 blue balls, and 72 green
balls, and that 2 balls are chosen at random without replacement.
Construct a probability tree for this problem. What is the probability that
2 green balls will be chosen? What is the probability that the 2 balls
chosen will have different colors?
6. When a company receives an order, there is a probability of 0.42 that
its value is over $1000. If an order is valued at over $1000, then there is
a probability of 0.63 that the customer will pay with a credit card.
(a) What is the probability that the next three
independent orders will each be valued at over $1000?
(b) What is the probability that the next order will be valued at over
$1000 but will not be paid with a credit card?
ASSIGNMENT:
7. Three types of batteries are being tested, type I, type II, and
type III. The outcome (I, II, III) denotes that the battery of type I fails
first, the battery of type II next, and the battery of type III lasts the
longest. The probabilities of the six outcomes are given in Figure
1.24. What is the probability that
(a) the type I battery lasts longest?
(b) the type I battery lasts shortest?
(c) the type I battery does not last longest?
(d) the type I battery lasts longer than the type II battery?
8. An experiment has five outcomes, I, II, III, IV, and V. If P(I) =
0.08, P(II) = 0.20, and P(III) = 0.33, what are the possible values for
the probability of outcome V? If outcomes IV and V are equally
likely, what are their probability values?