Lecture Notes 2 Probability

Lecture Notes 2 – Probability 1
Engr. Caesar Pobre Llapitan
Topics:
I. Sample Space and Relationships among Events
II. Counting Rules Useful in Probability
III. Rules of Probability
I. SAMPLE SPACE AND RELATIONSHIPS AMONG EVENTS
A. Random Experiments
In the study of probability, any process of observation is referred to as an experiment. The results of
an observation are called the outcomes of the experiment. An experiment is called a random
experiment if its outcome cannot be predicted.
Examples:
1. If we toss a coin, the result of the experiment is that it will either come up “tails,” symbolized
by T (or 0), or “heads,” symbolized by H (or 1), i.e., one of the elements of the set {H, T} (or {0,
1}).
2. If we toss a die, the result of the experiment is that it will come up with one of the numbers in
the set {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
3. If we are making bolts with a machine, the result of the experiment is that some may be
defective. Thus when a bolt is made, it will be a member of the set {defective, nondefective}.
B. Sample Space
In the study of statistics, we are concerned basically with the presentation and interpretation of
chance outcomes that occur in a planned study or scientific investigation.
Chance outcomes are represented by

1. Numerical data – counts or measurement
2. Categorical data – classified according to some criterion
Observation refer to any recording of information, whether it be numerical or categorical.
Generation of data for statistical analysis is done by experiment. In each of the three cases, designed
experiments, observational studies, and retrospective studies, the end result was a set of data that of
course is subject to uncertainty. Though only one of these has the word experiment in its description,
the process of generating the data or the process of observing the data is part of an experiment.
Definition 1
The process of making an observation or recording a measurement under a given set of
conditions is a trial or experiment
Thus, an experiment is realized whenever the set of conditions is realized.
Definition 2
Outcomes of an experiment are called events
Example 1 Consider the following experiment. Toss a coin and observe whether the upside of the coin
is Head or Tail. Two events may be occurred:
 H: Head is observed,
 T: Tail is observed.
Example 2 Toss a die and observe the number of dots on its upper face. You may observe one, or two,
or three, or four, or five or six dots on the upper face of the die. You cannot predict this number.
Example 3 When you draw one card from a standard 52 card bridge deck, some possible outcomes of
this experiment cannot be predicted with certainty in advance are:
 A: You draw an ace of hearts
 B: You draw an eight of diamonds
 C: You draw a spade
 D: You do not draw a spade.
Definition 3
The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment is called the sample space and is
represented by the symbol S.
Each outcome in a sample space is called an element or a member of the sample space, or simply a
sample point. If the sample space has a finite number of elements, we may list the members
separated by commas and enclosed in braces.
Examples:
1. Flipping of a coin: S = {H, T}
2. Tossing a die:
If we are interested in the number that shows on the top face: S1 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
If we are interested only in whether the number is even or odd: S2 = {even, odd}
In general, it is desirable to use the sample space that gives the most information concerning the
outcomes of the experiment.
Tree diagram refers to a systematic way of representing sample points in the sample space.
Example 1 An experiment consists of flipping a coin and then flipping it a second time if ahead
occurs. If a tail occurs on the first flip, then a die is tossed once.
To list the elements of the sample space providing the most information, we construct the tree
diagram.
By proceeding along all paths, the sample space is

S = {HH, HT, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}
Example 2 Suppose that three items are selected at random from a manufacturing process. Each item
is inspected and classified defective, D, or non-defective, N. To list the elements of the sample space
providing the most information, we construct the tree diagram.
S = {DDD, DDN, DND, DNN, NDD, NDN, NND, NNN}
Sample spaces with a large or infinite number of sample points are best described by a statement or
rule method. For example, if the possible outcomes of an experiment are the set of cities in the world
with a population over 1 million, our sample space is written
S = {x | x is a city with a population over 1 million}
C. Events
An event is a subset A of the sample space S, i.e., it is a set of possible outcomes. If the outcome of an
experiment is an element of A, we say that the event A has occurred. An event consisting of a single
point of S is often called a simple or elementary event.
As particular events, we have S itself, which is the sure or certain event since an element of S must
occur, and the empty set , which is called the impossible event because an element of cannot occur.
By using set operations on events in S, we can obtain other events in S. For example, if A and B are
events, then
1. A  B is the event “either A or B or both”. A  B is called the union of A and B.
2. A  B is the event “both A and B”. A  B is called the intersection of A and B.
3. A' is the event “not A”. A' is called the complement of A.
4. A  B = A  B' is the event “A but not B”. In particular, A  S = A'.
If the sets corresponding to events A and B are disjoint, i.e., A  B =  , we often say that the events
are mutually exclusive. This means that they cannot both occur. We say that a collection of events A1,
A2, …, An is mutually exclusive if every pair in the collection is mutually exclusive.
The relationship between events and the corresponding sample space can be illustrated graphically by
means of Venn diagrams.
Examples:
1. Events represented by various regions
A ∩ B = regions 1 and 2
B ∩ C = regions 1 and 3
A ∪ C = regions 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7
B' ∩ A = regions 4 and 7
A ∩ B ∩ C = region 1
(A ∪ B) ∩ C' = regions 2, 6, and 7
2. Events of the sample space S card from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards
 events A, B, and C are all subsets of the sample space S
 event B is a subset of event A
 event B ∩ C has no elements and hence B and C are mutually exclusive
 event A ∩ C has at least one element
 event A ∪ B = A
The events depict a situation where a card is selected from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards
A: the card is red
B: the card is the jack, queen, or king of diamonds
C: the card is an ace.
Exercises 1
1. An experiment involves tossing a pair of dice, one green and one red, and recording the numbers
that come up. If x equals the outcome on the green die and y the outcome on the red die, describe
the sample space S
a. by listing the elements (x, y);
b. by using the rule method.
c. list the elements corresponding to the event A that the sum is greater than 8;
d. list the elements corresponding to the event B that a 2 occurs on either die;
e. list the elements corresponding to the event C that a number greater than 4 comes up on
the green die;
f. list the elements corresponding to the event A∩C;
g. list the elements corresponding to the event A∩B;

h. list the elements corresponding to the event B ∩C;
i. construct a Venn diagram to illustrate the intersections and unions of the events A, B, and
C.
2. Four students are selected at random from a chemistry class and classified as male or female. List
the elements of the sample space S1, using the letter M for male and F for female. Define a second
sample space S2 where the elements represent the number of females selected.
3. The resumés of two male applicants for a college teaching position in chemistry are placed in the
same file as the resumés of two female applicants. Two positions become available, and the first,
at the rank of assistant professor, is filled by selecting one of the four applicants at random. The
second position, at the rank of instructor, is then filled by selecting at random one of the
remaining three applicants. Using the notation M2F1, for example, to denote the simple event that
the first position is filled by the second male applicant and the second position is then filled by the
first female applicant,
a. list the elements of a sample space S;
b. list the elements of S corresponding to event A that the position of assistant professor is
filled by a male applicant;
c. list the elements of S corresponding to event B that exactly one of the two positions is
filled by a male applicant;
d. list the elements of S corresponding to event C that neither position is filled by a male
applicant;
e. list the elements of S corresponding to the event A ∩ B;
f. list the elements of S corresponding to the event A ∪ C;
g. construct a Venn diagram to illustrate the intersections and unions of the events A, B, and
C.
4. Consider the sample space S = {copper, sodium, nitrogen, potassium, uranium, oxygen, zinc} and
the events
A = {copper, sodium, zinc},
B = {sodium, nitrogen, potassium},
C = {oxygen}.
List the elements of the sets corresponding to the following events:
a. A';
b. A  C;
c. (A  B')  C';
d. B'  C';
e. A  B ;
f. (A'  B')  (A'  C)
5. If S = {x | 0 < x < 12}, M = {x | 1 < x < 9}, and N = {x | 0 < x < 5}, find
a. M  N
b. M  N
c. M'  N'
6. Suppose that a family is leaving on a summer vacation in their camper and that M is the event that
they will eexperience mechanical problems, T is the event that they will receive a ticket for
committing a traffic violation, and V is the event that they will arrive at a campsite with no
vacancies. Referring to the Venn diagram of Figure 1, state in words the events represented by the
following regions:
a. region 5
b. region 3;
c. regions 1 and 2 together;

d. regions 4 and 7 together;
e. regions 3, 6, 7, and 8 together.
Figure 1
7. Referring to Exercise 6 and the Venn diagram of Figure 1, list the numbers of the regions that
represent the following events:
a. The family will experience no mechanical problems and will not receive a ticket for a
traffic violation but will arrive at a campsite with no vacancies.
b. The family will experience both mechanical problems and trouble in locating a campsite
with a vacancy but will not receive a ticket for a traffic violation.
c. The family will either have mechanical trouble or arrive at a campsite with no vacancies
but will not receive a ticket for a traffic violation.
d. The family will not arrive at a campsite with no vacancies.
8. Three events are shown on the Venn diagram in the following figure:
Reproduce the figure and shade the region that corresponds to each of the following events.
a. A'
b. (A  B)  (A  B')
c. (A  B)  C
d. (B  C)'
e. (A  B)'  C
II. COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY
A. The Fundamental Counting Principle

If event A has m different outcomes and event B has n different outcomes, then there are m
n different ways for events A and B to occur.
The principle is stated for two events but can be generalized to include any finite number of
successive events. Although the fundamental principle of counting can be used to find the number of
possible outcomes of successive events, it does not tell us anything about the form of the outcomes.
Examples:
1. How many sample points are there in the sample space when a pair of dice is thrown once?
2. How many different patterns are possible for the answers to a true/false test consisting of 10
questions?
3. If nine horses enter a race, in how many ways can the first three places be won?
4. How many different license plates is possible if each plate consists of 2 letters followed by a 4-
digit number? Assume repetitions in the letters or numbers are allowed and any of the 10
digits may be used in each place of the 4-digit number.
5. How many sample points are there when a pair of dice is thrown once?
6. A developer of a new subdivision offers prospective home buyers a choice of Tudor, rustic,
colonial and traditional exterior styling in ranch, two-storey and split-level floor plans. In how
many different ways can a buyer order one of these homes?
7. How many lunches consisting of a soup, sandwich, dessert and a drink are possible if we can
select from 4 soups, 3 kinds of sandwiches, 5 desserts and 4 drinks?
8. How many even three-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 1, 2, 5, 6 and 9 if each digit
can be used only once?
9. A teacher has 5 different books that he wishes to arrange side by side. How many different
arrangements are possible?
10. Sam is going to assemble a computer by himself. He has the choice of ordering chips from two
brands, a hard drive from four, memory from three, and an accessory bundle from five local
stores. How many different, ways can Sam order the parts?
Factorial Notation
For any natural numbers n,
n!=n  n - 1   n - 2  …  3   2   1 
Also, we define 0! = 1.
B. Permutations
A permutation is any ordering or arrangement of distinct objects in a linear manner.
Theorem 1: Permutations of n Things n at a Time

The notation P(n, n), or nPn, represents the number of permutations of n things taken n at a
time, and P(n, n) = n!.
Examples:
1. How many different ways are there for 10 people to stand in line to buy basketball ticket?
2. Find the permutations of 3 letters a, b, and c.
Sometimes we are interested in permutations in which all of the objects are not used.
Theorem 2: Permutations of n Things r at a Time

The notation P(n, r) represents the number of permutations of n things taken r at a time, and
n!
P  n,r  
 n  r for 0  r  n
Examples:
1. Suppose the teacher wishes to place only 3 of the 5 books on his desk. How many
arrangements of 3 books are possible?
2. Two lottery tickets are drawn from 20 for first and second prizes. Find the number of ways.
3. How many ways can a local chapter of PICE schedule 3 speakers for 3 different meetings if
they are all available on any of 5 possible dates?
4. A television talk show will include 4 women and 3 men as panelists
a) How many ways can the panelists be seated in a row of 7 chairs?
b) In how many ways can the panelists be seated if the men and women are to be
alternated?
5. In one year, three awards (research, teaching, and service) will be given for a class of 25
graduate students in a statistics department. If each student can receive at most one award,
how many possible selections are there?
Permutations that occur by arranging objects in a circle are called circular permutations. Two
circular permutations are not considered different unless corresponding objects in the two
arrangements are preceded or followed by a different object as we proceed in a clockwise direction.
Theorem 3: Circular permutation

The number of permutations of n distinct objects arranged in a circle is (n – 1)!.
Examples:
1. In how many ways can 5 different trees be planted in a circle?
2. In how many ways can eight cheerleaders be arranged to form a circle.
Theorem 4:
The number of distinct permutations of n things of which n1 are of one kind, n2 of a second
kind, …, nk of a kth kind is
n!
n1!  n2!   nk!
Examples:
1. How many different ways can 3 red, 4 yellow and 2 blue bulbs be arranged in a string of
Christmas tree lights with 9 sockets?
2. In how many ways can he letters in the word MISSISSIPPI be arranged?
Theorem 5:
The number of ways of partitioning a set of n objects into r cells with n1 elements in the first
cell, n2 elements in the second, and so forth, is
¿ (n ¿ )¿ ¿
¿
where n1 + n2 + … + nr = n
Examples:
1. A president and a treasurer are to be chosen from a student club consisting of 50 people. How
many different choices of officers are possible if
a. there are no restrictions;
Answer:
The total number of choices of the officers, if there are no restrictions, is 50P2 = 2450
b. A will serve only if he is president;

Answer:
Since A will serve only if he is the president, we have two situations here: (i) A is
selected as the president, which yields 49 possible outcomes; or (ii) Officers are
selected from the remaining 49 people which have the number of choices 49P2 = 2352.
Therefore, the total number of choices is 49 + 2352 = 2401
c. B and C will serve together or not at all;

Answer:
The number of selections when B and C serve together is 2. The number of selections
when both B and C are not chosen is 48P2 = 2256. Therefore, the total number of choices
in this situation is 2 + 2256 = 2258
d. D and E will not serve together?

Answer:
The number of selections when D serves as an officer but not E is (2)(48) = 96, where 2
is the number of positions D can take and 48 is the number of selections of the other
officer from the remaining people in the club except E. The number of selections when
E serves as an officer but not D is also (2)(48) = 96. The number of selections when
both D and E are not chosen is 48P2 = 2256. Therefore, the total number of choices is (2)
(96) + 2256 = 2448. This problem also has another short solution: Since D and E can
only serve together in 2 ways, the answer is 2450 - 2 = 2448.
2. In how many ways can seven scientists be assigned to one triple and two double hotel rooms?
3. A college plays 12 football games during a season. In how many ways can the team end the
season with 7 wins, 3 losses, and 2 ties?
4. Nine people are going on a skiing trip in 3 cars that will hold 2, 4, and 5 passengers
respectively. In how many ways is it possible to transport the 9 people to the ski lodge using
all cars?
C. Combinations
In many problems we are interested in the number of ways of selecting r objects from n without
regard to order. These selections are called combinations. A combination is actually a partition with
two cells, the one cell containing the r objects selected and the other cell containing the (n — r)
objects that are left.
The number of combinations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is
n n!
Cr    
r  r  n  r
n
Examples:
1. How many ways are there that no two students will have the same birth date in a size of 60
class?
Answer:
60 C2 = 60!/2!58! = 1740 ways
2. A young boy asks his mother to get five Game-Boy™ cartridges from his collection of 10 arcade
and 5 sports games. How many ways are there that his mother will get 3 arcade and 2 sports
games, respectively?
3. How many ways are there to select 3 candidates from 8 equally qualified recent graduates for
openings in an accounting firm?
4. A committee of 3 is to be formed from a group of 20 people. How many different committees
are possible?
5. From a group of 5 women and 7 men, how many different committees consisting of 2 women
and 3 men can be formed? What if 2 of the men are feuding and refuse to serve on the
committee together?
Exercises 2
1. How many different batting orders are possible for a baseball team consisting of 9 players?
2. A class in probability theory consists of 6 men and 4 women. An examination is given, and the
students are ranked according to their performance. Assume that no two students obtain the
same score.
a. How many different rankings are possible?
b. If the men are ranked just among themselves and the women just among themselves,
how many different rankings are possible?
3. Ms. Jones has 10 books that she is going to put on her bookshelf. Of these, 4 are mathematics
books, 3 are chemistry books, 2 are history books, and 1 is a language book. Ms. Jones wants to
arrange her books so that all the books dealing with the same subject are together on the
shelf. How many different arrangements are possible?
4. How many different letter arrangements can be formed from the letters PEPPER?
5. A chess tournament has 10 competitors, of which 4 are Russian, 3 are from the United States, 2
are from Great Britain, and 1 is from Brazil. If the tournament result lists just the nationalities
of the players in the order in which they placed, how many outcomes are possible?
6. In a college football training session, the defensive coordinator needs to have 10 players
standing in a row. Among these 10 players, there are 1 freshman, 2 sophomores, 4 juniors, and
3 seniors, respectively. How many different ways can they be arranged in a row if only their
class level will be distinguished?
7. If there are seven boys in a race, how many ways can the second place be filled once first place
has been decided? How many ways can third place be filled once the first and second places
have been decided? [Ans. 6, 5)]
8. Find the number of permutations of seven objects taken four at a time.
9. How many two-digit numbers can be formed from the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 if no digits can
be repeated? [Ans. = 30]
10. How many batting orders of 9 players can a baseball manager make up from a roster of 15
players? [Ans. = 15!/6!]
11. Students at a private liberal arts college are classified as being freshmen, sophomores, juniors,
or seniors, and also according to whether they are male or female. Find the total number of
possible classifications for the students of that college.
12. A witness to a hit-and-run accident told the police that the license number contained the
letters RLH followed by 3 digits, the first of which is a 5. If the witness cannot recall the last 2
digits, but is certain that all 3 digits are different, find the maximum number of automobile
registrations that the police may have to check.
13. A contractor wishes to build 9 houses, each different in design. In how many ways can he
place these houses on a street if 6 lots are on one side of the street and 3 lots are on the
opposite side?
III. RULES OF PROBABILITY
There are two rules which are very important.

1. All probabilities are between 0 and 1 inclusive: 0  P(E)  1
2. The sum of all the probabilities in the sample space is 1
There are some other rules which are also important.
3. The probability of an event which cannot occur is 0.

The probability of any event which is not in the sample space is zero.
4. The probability of an event which must occur is 1.

The probability of the sample space is 1.
5. The probability of an event not occurring is one minus the probability of it occurring.
P(E') = 1  P(E)
Examples:
1. A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at least one head occurs?
2. A die is loaded in such a way that an even number is twice as likely to occur as an odd
number. If E is the event that the number less than 4 occurs on a single toss of the die, find
P(E).
3. In #3, let A be the event that an even number turns up and let B for the event that a number
divisible by 3 occurs. Find P(A  B) and P(A  B).
4. A die is constructed so that a 1 or 2 occurs twice as often as a 5, which occurs three times as
often as a 3, 4, or 6. If the die is tossed once, find the probabilities that
a. the number is even
b. the number is a perfect square
c. the number is greater than 4
Theorem 1:
If an experiment can result in any one of N different equally likely outcomes, and if exactly n
of these outcomes corresponds to event A, then the probability of event A is
n
P(A) =
N
Examples:
1. A mixture of candies contains 6 mints, 4 toffees, and 3 chocolates. If a person makes a random
selection of one of these candies, find the probability of getting a) a mint or b) a toffee or a
chocolate.
2. In a poker hand consisting of 5 cards, find the probability of holding 2 aces and 3 jacks.
Answer:
44 4! 4!
   
2 3 2! 2! 3! 1!
P       0.9  10 5
 52  52!
  5! 49!
5
3. In a poker hand consisting of 5 cards, find the probability of holding

a. (a) 3 aces [94/54,145]
b. (b) 4 hearts and 1 club [143/39,984]
4. A box contains 500 envelopes of which 75 contains $100 in cash, 150 conatin$25, and 275
contain$10. An envelope may be purchased for $25. What is the sample space for the different
amounts of money? Assign probabilities to the sample points and then find the probability
that the first envelope purchased contains less than $100.
Answers:
S = {$10, $25, $100}
P(100) = 75/500; P(25) = 150/500; P(10) = 275/500
A. Additive Rules
Often it is easier to calculate the probability of some event from known probabilities of other events.
This may well be true if the event in question can be represented as the unions of two other events or
as the complement of some event.
Theorem 2: Additive rule (Unions of two events)

If A and B are any two events, then
P ( A ∪ B) = P ( A ) + P ( B) − P ( A ∩ B)
For 3 events A, B, and C:

P ( A∪B∪C ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) + P ( C ) − P ( A∩B ) − P ( A∩C ) − P ( B∩C ) + P ( A∩B∩C )
Theorem 3: Mutually exclusive events

If A and B are mutually exclusive, then
P ( A ∪ B) = P ( A ) + P ( B)
Examples:
1. The probability that Paula passes mathematics is 2/3 and the probability that she passes
English is 4/9. If the probability of passing both courses is ¼, what is the probability that Paula
pass at least one of these courses?
2. What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when pair of dice is tossed?
Answer:
A be the event that 7 occurs
6 of the 30 sample points
P{A) = 1/6
B the event that 11 comes up

2 of the sample points
P(B) = 1/18.
The events A and B are mutually exclusive, since a total of 7 and 11 cannot both occur
on the same toss
P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) = 2/9
3. If the probabilities are, respectively, 0.09, 0.15, 0.21 and 0.23 that a person purchasing a new
automobile will choose the color green, white, red or blue, what is the probability that a given
buyer will purchase a new automobile that comes in one of those colors?
Answer:
Since these four events are mutually exclusive, the probability is
P{G U W U R U B) = P(G) + P(W) + P{R) + P{B) = 0.68
Theorem 4:
If A and A' are complementary events, then
P(A) + P(A') = 1
Examples:
1. If A and B are mutually exclusive events and P(A) = 0.3 and P(B) = 0.5, find
a. P(A  B)
b. P(A')
c. P(A'  B)
2. If A, B and C are mutually exclusive events and P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.3 and P(C) = 0.2, find
a. P(A  B  C)
b. P[A'  (B  C)]
c. P(B  C)
3. If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic will service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 or more cars on
any given workday are, respectively, 0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10, and 0.07, what is the probability
that he will service at least 5 cars on his next day at work?
Answer:
Let E be the event that at least 5 cars are serviced
Let E' is the event that fewer than 5 cars are serviced
P(E') = 0.12+ 0.19 = 0.31
P(E) = 1 — P(E') = 0.69
4. Suppose the manufacturer specifications of the length of a certain type of computer cable are
2000 ± 10 millimeters. In this industry, it is known that small cable is just as likely to be
defective (not meeting specifications) as large cable. That is, the probability of randomly
producing a cable with length exceeding 2010 millimeters is equal to the probability of
producing a cable with length smaller than 1990 millimeters. The probability that the
production procedure meets specifications is known to be 0.99.
a. What is the probability that a cable selected randomly is too large?
b. What is the probability that a randomly selected cable is larger than 1990 millimeters?
Answer:
Let M be the event that a cable meets specifications
Let S and L be the events that the cable is too small and too large, respectively.
a) P(M) = 0.99 and P{S) = P(L) = (1 – 0.99)/2 = 0.005
b) P(X > 1990) + P(X < 1990) = 1
P{X > 1990) = 1 - P{S) = 1 - 0.005 = 0.995
B. Odds
If A is any event, then the odds in favor of A is the ratio P(A) to P(A') and the odds against
A is the ratio of P(A') to P(A).
Examples:
1. What are the odds in favor of getting a sum of 6 when rolling a pair of dice? What are the odds
against a sum of 6?
2. If the odds in favor of Daddy’s Darling winning the third race at Delta Downs are 4 to 1, then
what is the probability that Daddy’s Darling wins the third place?
3. What are the odds for the occurrence of an event if its probability is
a. 5/9 b. 0.85
Answer:
a) The odds are 5/9 to (1 – 5/9) or 5 to 4
b) 0.85 to (1 – 0.85 = 0.15), 85 to 15 or 17 to 3
4. What are the odds if the probability of an event is 0.20?

Answer:
0.20 to (1 – 0.20 = 0.80) or 1 to 4
5. Records show that 1/12 of the trucks weighed at a certain check point carry too heavy a load. If
someone offers to bet $40 against $4 that the next truck weighed at this check point will not
carry too heavy a load, are these betting odds fair?
Answer:
1 – 1/12 = 11/12 is the probability that the truck will not carry too heavy a load
The odds are 11 to 1
To be fair, the person should offer a bet of $44 against $4 that the next truck weighed
at this check point will not carry too heavy a load. Thus, the $40 against $4 bet is not
fair, it favors the person offering the bet.
Strategy for Converting from Odds to Probability

If the odds in favor of event E are a to b, then
a b
P  E = P  E'  =
a+ b and a+b
Examples:
1. Convert the businessman’s 3 to 2 odds for the success of the new clothing store into a
probability.
2. If an applicant for a managerial position feels that the odds are 7 to 4 that she will get the job,
what probability is she thus assigning to her getting the job?
3. An economist feels that the odds are 2 to 1 that the price of beef will go up during the next
month, 1 to 5 that it will remain unchanged, and 8 to 3 that it will go up or remain unchanged.
Are the corresponding probabilities consistent?
Answer:
P(price go up) = 2/(2 + 1) = 2/3
P(remain unchanged) = 1/(1+5) = 1/6
P(price will go up or remain unchanged) = 2/3 + 1/6 = 5/6
P(price will go up or remain unchanged claimed) = 8/(8+3) = 8/11
Since the probabilities are not consistent, the economist’s judgment must be questioned.
Exercises 3
1. Out of 20 applicants for computer programmers, 30% met the two-year working experience
requirements, 60% are degree holders and 20% satisfies both requirements. How many of the
applicants met at least one of the job requirements?
2. In an experiment of tossing a die, compute the probability of getting either and even number
or a number less than 4?
3. If a permutation of the word WHITE is selected at random, find the probability that the
permutation
a. begins with a consonant
b. ends with a vowel

c. has the consonant and vowel alternating
4. If 3 books are picked at random from a shelf containing 5 novels, 3 books of poems and a
dictionary, what is the probability that
a. the dictionary is selected
b. 2 novels and 1 book of poems are selected
5. Find the errors in each of the following statements:
a. The probabilities that an automobile salesperson will sell 0, 1, 2, or 3 cars on any given
day in February are, respectively, 0.19, 0.38, 0.29, and 0.15. [Sum of the probabilities
exceeds 1]
b. The probability that it will rain tomorrow is 0.40 and the probability that it will not
rain tomorrow is 0.52. [Sum of the probabilities is less than 1]
c. The probabilities that a printer will make 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 or more mistakes in setting a
document are, respectively, 0.19,0.34, -0.25,0.43, and 0.29. [A negative probability]
d. On a single draw from a deck of playing cards the probability of selecting a heart is 1/4,
the probability of selecting a black card is 1/2, and the probability of selecting both a
heart and a black card is 1/8. [Probability of both a heart and a black card is zero]
6. From past experiences a stockbroker believes that under present economic conditions a
customer will invest in tax-free bonds with a probability of 0.6, will invest in mutual funds
with a probability of 0.3, and will invest in both tax-free bonds and mutual funds with a
probability of 0.15. At this time, find the probability that a customer will invest
a. in either tax-free bonds or mutual funds;
b. in neither tax-free bonds nor mutual funds
7. If a letter is chosen at random from the English alphabet, find the probability that the letter
a. is a vowel exclusive of y; [5/26]
b. is listed somewhere ahead of the letter j; [9/26]
c. is listed somewhere after the letter g. [19/26]
8. A pair of fair dice is tossed. Find the probability of getting
a. a total of 8
b. at most a total of 5
9. Two cards are drawn in succession from a deck without replacement. What is the probability
that both cards are greater than 2 and less than 8?
10. Interest centers on the life of an electronic component. Suppose it is known that the
probability that the component survives for more than 6000 hours is 0.42. Suppose also that
the probability that the component survives no longer than 4000 hours is 0.04.
a. What is the probability that the life of the component is less than or equal to 6000
hours?
b. What is the probability that the life is greater than 4000 hours?
11. It is common in many industrial areas to use a filling machine to fill boxes full of product. This
occurs in the food industry as well as other areas in which the product is used in the home, for
example, detergent. These machines are not perfect, and, indeed they may A, fill to
specification, B, under fill, and C, overfill. Generally, the practice of under filling is that which
one hopes to avoid. Let P(B) = 0.001 while P(A) = 0.990.
a. Give P{C} [0.009]
b. What is the probability that the machine does not under fill? [0.999]
c. What is the probability that the machine either overfills or under fills? [0.01]
C. Conditional Probability
The probability of an event B occurring when it is known that some event A has occurred is
called a conditional probability and is denoted by P ( B| A ) . That is,
P  A B
P B A  ; if P  A   0
P A
Examples:
1. The question, "Do you smoke?" was asked of 100 people. Results are shown in the table.
. Yes No Total
Male 19 41 60
Female 12 28 40
Total 31 69 100
a) What is the probability of a randomly selected individual being a male who smokes? This is
just a joint probability. The number of "Male and Smoke" divided by the total = 19/100 = 0.19
b) What is the probability of a randomly selected individual being a male? This is the total for
male divided by the total = 60/100 = 0.60. Since no mention is made of smoking or not
smoking, it includes all the cases.
c) What is the probability of a randomly selected individual smoking? Again, since no mention is
made of gender, this is a marginal probability, the total who smoke divided by the total =
31/100 = 0.31.
d) What is the probability of a randomly selected male smoking? This time, you're told that you
have a male - think of stratified sampling. What is the probability that the male smokes? Well,
19 males smoke out of 60 males, so 19/60 = 0.31666...
e) What is the probability that a randomly selected smoker is male? This time, you're told that
you have a smoker and asked to find the probability that the smoker is also male. There are 19
male smokers out of 31 total smokers, so 19/31 = 0.6129 (approx)
2. There are three major manufacturing companies that make a product: Aberations, Brochmailians,
and Chompielians. Aberations has a 50% market share, and Brochmailians has a 30% market
share. 5% of Aberations' product is defective, 7% of Brochmailians' product is defective, and 10%
of Chompieliens' product is defective.
This information can be placed into a joint probability distribution

Company Good Defective Total
Aberations 0.50-0.025 = 0.475 0.05(0.50) = 0.025 0.50
Brochmailians 0.30-0.021 = 0.279 0.07(0.30) = 0.021 0.30
Chompieliens 0.20-0.020 = 0.180 0.10(0.20) = 0.020 0.20
Total 0.934 0.066 1.00
The percent of the market share for Chompieliens wasn't given, but since the marginals must add to
be 1.00, they have a 20% market share.
Notice that the 5%, 7%, and 10% defective rates don't go into the table directly. This is because they
are conditional probabilities and the table is a joint probability table. These defective probabilities are
conditional upon which company was given. That is, the 7% is not P(Defective), but P(Defective|
Brochmailians).
The joint probability P(Defective and Brochmailians) = P(Defective|Brochmailians)P(Brochmailians).
The "good" probabilities can be found by subtraction as shown above, or by multiplication using
conditional probabilities. If 7% of Brochmailians' product is defective, then 93% is good. 0.93(0.30) =
0.279.
 What is the probability a randomly selected product is defective?
P(Defective) = 0.066
 What is the probability that a defective product came from Brochmailians? P(Brochmailian|
Defective) = P(Brochmailian and Defective)/P(Defective) = 0.021/0.066 = 7/22 = 0.318 (approx).
 Are these events independent?
No. If they were, then P(Brochmailians|Defective) = 0.318 would have to equal the
P(Brochmailians) = 0.30, but it doesn't. Also, the P(Aberations and Defective)=0.025 would
have to be P(Aberations)P(Defective) = 0.50  0.066 = 0.033, and it doesn't.
3. Consider the sample space S, where S is the population of adults in a small town who have
completed the requirements for a college degree.
Employed Unemployed Total
Male 460 40 500
Female 140 260 400
Total 600 300 900
One of these individuals is to be selected at random for a tour throughout the country to
publicize the advantages of establishing new industries in the town.
M: a man is chosen
E: the one chosen is employed
Find P(M E) and P(E  M).
Answer:
P(E) = 600/900 = 2/3 P(M) = 500/900 = 5/9
P(E  M) = 460/900 = 23/45 P(M  E) = 460/900 = 23/45
P(ME) = P(E  M)/P(E) = (23/45)/(2/3) = 23/30
P(EM) = P(M  E)/P(M) = (23/45)/(5/9) =
4. The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is P(D) = 0.83, the probability
that it arrives on time is P(A) = 0.82, and the probability that it departs and arrives on time is P(D
 A) = 0.78. Find the probability that a plane a) arrives on time given that it departed on time; and
b) departed on time given that it has arrived on time.
Answer:
a) P(AD) = P(DA)/P(D) = 0.94
b) P(DA) = P(DA)/P(A) = 0.95
Note:
Two events A and B are- independent if and only if
P(BA) = P(B) or P(AB )=- P{A)
provided the existences of the conditional probabilities. Otherwise, A and B are dependent.
D. General Multiplication Rule

The probability that two events will both occur is the product of the probability that one will
occur and the conditional probability that the other will occur given that the first event has
occurred (occurs, or will occur).
P(A  B) = P(A)  P(B  A) = P(B)  P(A  B)

Example:
1. A jury consists of nine persons who are native-born and three persons who are foreign-born. If
two of the jurors are randomly picked for an interview, what is the probability that they will
both be foreign-born?
2. Suppose that we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses, of which 5 are defective. If 2 fuses are
selected at random and removed from the box in succession, without replacing the first, what
is the probability that both fuses are defective?
3. On bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black balls, and a second bag contains 3 white balls and 5
black balls. One ball is drawn from the first bag and placed unseen in the second bag. What is
the probability that a ball now drawn from the second bag is black?
Answer:
P[(B1B2 or W1B2)] = P(B1B2) + P(W1B2)
= P(B1)P(B2B1) + P(W1)P(B2W1)
= (3/7)(6/9) + (4/7)(5/9) = 38/63
Independent Events (Special Multiplication Rule)

If A and B are independent events, then
P(A  B) = P(A)  P(B)
Examples:
1. What is the probability of getting two heads in two flips of a balanced coin?
2. If P(C) = 0.65, P(D) = 0.40 and P(C  D) = 0.26, are the events C and D independent?
3. What is the probability of getting two aces in a row when two cards are drawn from an
ordinary deck of 52 cards, if
a. the first card is replaced before the second card is drawn;
b. the first card is not replaced before the second card is drawn?
4. An electrical system consists of four components as illustrated in Figure 2.9. The system works
if components A and B work and either of the components C or D work. The reliability
(probability of working) of each component is also shown in Figure below. Find the
probability that (a) the entire system works, and (b) the component C does not work, given
that the entire system works. Assume that four components work independently.
0.9
0.9 0.9 C
A B 0.9
D
Answer:
In this configuration of the system, A, B, and the subsystem C and D constitute a serial
circuit system, whereas the subsystem C and D itself is a parallel circuit system.
(a) Clearly the probability that the entire system works can be calculated as the
following:
P[(AB)  (CD)] = P(A)P(B)P(CD)
= P(A)P(B)[1 – P(C'D')]
= P(A)P(B)[1 – P(C')P(D')]
= (0.9)(0.9)[1 – (1 – 0.8)(1 – 0.8)] = 0.7776
(b) To calculate the conditional probability in this case, notice that

P = P(the system works but C does not work)/P(the system works)
= P(A  B  C'  D)/ P[(AB)  (CD)] = (0.9)(0.9)(1 – 0.8)(0.8)/0.7776
= 0.1667
Theorem 1
If, in an experiment, the events A1, A2, …, Ak can occur, then
P ( A 1 ∩ A2 ∩ … ∩ A k ) = P ( A1 ) ⋅P ( A 2 |A1 ) ⋅P ( A3 |A 1 ∩ A2 ) ⋅…P ( A k |A 1 ∩ A2 ∩…∩ A k−1 )
Theorem 2
If the events are A1, A2, …, Ak are independent, then
P ( A 1 ∩ A2 … ∩ A k ) = P ( A 1 ) ⋅ P ( A 2 ) … P ( A k )
Examples:
1. Three cards are drawn in succession, without replacement, from an ordinary deck of playing
cards. Find the probability that the event A1 A2  A3 occurs, where A1 is the event that the
first card is a red ace, A2 is the event that the second card is a 10 or a jack, and A 3 is the event
that third card is greater than 3 but less than 7?
Answer:
P(A1) = 2/52 P(A2A1) = 8/51 P(A3A1A2) = 12/50
P(A1 A2  A3) = P(A1) P(A2A1) P(A3A1A2) = (2/52)(8/51)(12/50) = 8/5525
2. A and B play 12 games of chess, of which 6 are won by A, 4 are won by B, and 2 end in a tie.
They agree to play a tournament consisting of 3 games. Find the probability that a) A wins all 3
games; b) 2 games end in a tie; c) A and B win alternately; and d) B wins at least one game.
Answer:
Let A1, A2 A3 = “A” wins in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd game
Let B1, B2, B3 = “B” wins in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd game
Let T1, T2, T3 = there is a tie in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd game
P(A) = 6/12 = 1/2; P(B) = 4/12 = 1/3 P(T) = 2/12 = 1/6
a) P(A wins all 3 games) = P(A1)P(A2)P(A3) = 1/8
b) P(2 games end in a tie) = P(1st and 2nd or 1st and 3rd or 2nd and 3rd end in a tie)
= P(T1T2T'3) + P(T1T'2T3) + P(T'1T2T3) = 5/72
c) P(A and B wins alternately) = A-B-A) or B-A-B-
= P(A1B2A3) + P(B1A2B3) = 5/36
d) P(B wins at least 1 game) = 1 – P(B wins no game)
= 1 – P(B'1B'2B'3)
= 1 – (2/3)(2/3)(2/3) = 19/27
3. A coin is biased so that a head is twice as likely to occur as a tail. If the coin is tossed 3 times,
what is the probability of getting 2 tails and 1 head?
Answer:
S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THE, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}.
P(H) 2/3 P(T) = 1/3
A = {TTH, THT, HTT}
P(A) = (TTH) or (THT) or (HTT)
= P(T)P(T)P(H) + P(T)P(H)P(T) + P(H)P(T)P(T) = 2/9
E. Bayes' Theorem
Bayes' formula finds the reverse conditional probability P(B|D).
It is based that the Given (D) is made of three parts, the part of D in A, the part of D in B, and the part
of D in C.
P ( B and D )
P ( B| D ) =
P ( A and D ) + P ( B and D ) + P ( C and D )
Inserting the multiplication rule for each of these joint probabilities gives
P ( D |B ) ⋅P ( B )
P ( B| D ) =
P ( D | A ) ⋅P ( A ) + P ( D | B ) ⋅ P ( B ) + P ( D | C ) ⋅P ( C )
It is much easier to take the joint probability divided by the marginal probability. The table does the
adding for you and makes the problems doable without having to memorize the formulas.
Formally, we state the Bayes’ theorem:
If B1, B2, …, Bk are mutually exclusive events of which one must occur, then
P ( B i ) ⋅P ( A|Bi )
P ( B i|A ) =
P ( B 1 ) ⋅ P ( A|B1 ) + P ( B2 ) ⋅P ( A|B2 ) + … + P ( Bk ) ⋅ P ( A|B k )
for i = 1, 2, …, or k.
Note that the expression in the denominator actually equals P(A). This formula for calculating P(A)
when A is reached via one of several intermediate steps is called the rule of elimination or the rule
of total probability.
Examples:
1. An insurance company believes that people can be divided into two classes: those who are
accident prone and those who are not. The company’s statistics show that an accident-prone
person will have an accident at some time within a fixed 1-year period with probability 0.4,
whereas this probability decreases to 0.2 for a person who is not accident prone. If we assume
that 30 percent of the population is accident prone,
a) what is the probability that a new policyholder will have an accident within a year of
purchasing a policy?
b) Suppose that a new policyholder has an accident within a year of purchasing a policy.
What is the probability that he or she is accident prone?
Solution:
Let A1 denote the event that the policyholder will have an accident within a year of purchasing
the policy, and let A denote the event that the policyholder is accident prone
a) P(A1) = P(A1|A)P(A) + P(A1|A')P(A')
= (.4)(.3) + (.2)(.7) = .26
b) The desired probability is

P  AA1  P  A  P  A1 A 
P  A A1   
P  A1  P  A1 

 0.3   0.4  
6
0.26 13
2. In answering a question on a multiple-choice test, a student either knows the answer or

guesses. Let p be the probability that the student knows the answer and 1 – p be the
probability that the student guesses. Assume that a student who guesses at the answer will be
correct with probability 1/m, where m is the number of multiple-choice alternatives. What is
the conditional probability that a student knew the answer to a question given that he or she
answered it correctly?
Solution:
Let C and K denote, respectively, the events that the student answers the question correctly
and the event that he or she actually knows the answer. Now,
PC K P K
P K C 
P  C K  P  K   P  C K ' P  K '
p

p   1 / m  1  p
mp

1   m  1 p
For example, if m = 5, p = 12, then the probability that the student knew the answer to a
question he or she answered correctly is 5/6
.
3. A laboratory blood test is 95 percent effective in detecting a certain disease when it is, in fact,
present. However, the test also yields a “false positive” result for 1 percent of the healthy
persons tested. (That is, if a healthy person is tested, then, with probability .01, the test result
will imply that he or she has the disease.) If 0.5 percent of the population actually has the
disease, what is the probability that a person has the disease given that the test result is
positive?
Solution:
Let D be the event that the person tested has the disease and E the event that the test result is
positive. Then the desired probability is
P  E D P  D
P D E 
P  E D  P  D   P  E D ' P  D '
 0.95   0.005 

 0.95   0.005    0.01   0.995 
95
  0.323
294
Thus, only 32 percent of those persons whose test results are positive actually have the disease.
Exercises 4
I. Additive Rules
1. Find the errors in each of the following statements:
a. The probabilities that an automobile salesperson will sell 0, 1, 2, or 3 cars on any given day
in February are, respectively, 0.19, 0.38, 0.29, and 0.15.
b. The probability that it will rain tomorrow is 0.40, and the probability that it will not rain
tomorrow is 0.52.
c. The probabilities that a printer will make 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 or more mistakes in setting a
document are, respectively, 0.19, 0.34, −0.25, 0.43, and 0.29.
d. On a single draw from a deck of playing cards, the probability of selecting a heart is 1/4,
the probability of selecting a black card is 1/2, and the probability of selecting both a heart
and a black card is 1/8.
2. If P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.2 and P(A  B) = 0.1, determine the following probabilities:
a. P(A') d. P(A  B')
b. P(A  B) e. P[(A  B)']

c. P(A'  B) f. P(A'  B)
3. The analysis of shafts for a compressor is summarized by conformance to specifications.

Roundness conforms
Yes No
Surface finish Yes 345 5
conforms No 12 8
a. If a shaft is selected at random, what is the probability that the shaft conforms to surface
finish requirements?
b. What is the probability that the selected shaft conforms to surface finish requirements or
to roundness requirements?
c. What is the probability that the selected shaft either conforms to surface finish
requirements or does not conform to roundness requirements?
d. What is the probability that the selected shaft conforms to both surface finish and
roundness requirements?
4. A box contains 500 envelopes, of which 75 contain $100 in cash, 150 contain $25, and 275
contain $10. An envelope may be purchased for $25. What is the sample space for the different
amounts of money? Assign probabilities to the sample points and then find the probability
that the first envelope purchased contains less than $100.
5. If each coded item in a catalog begins with 3 distinct letters followed by 4 distinct nonzero
digits, find the probability of randomly selecting one of these coded items with the first letter
a vowel and the last digit even.
6. If a letter is chosen at random from the English alphabet, find the probability that the letter
a. is a vowel exclusive of y;
b. is listed somewhere ahead of the letter j;
c. is listed somewhere after the letter g.
7. Interest centers around the life of an electronic component. Suppose it is known that the
probability that the component survives for more than 6000 hours is 0.42. Suppose also that
the probability that the component survives no longer than 4000 hours is 0.04.
a. What is the probability that the life of the component is less than or equal to 6000 hours?
b. What is the probability that the life is greater than 4000 hours?
8. Factory workers are constantly encouraged to practice zero tolerance when it comes to
accidents in factories. Accidents can occur because the working environment or conditions
themselves are unsafe. On the other hand, accidents can occur due to carelessness or so-called
human error. In addition, the worker’s shift, 7:00 A.M.–3:00 P.M. (day shift), 3:00 P.M.–11:00
P.M. (evening shift), or 11:00 P.M.–7:00 A.M. (graveyard shift), may be a factor. During the last
year, 300 accidents have occurred. The percentages of the accidents for the condition
combinations are as follows:
Shift Unsafe Condition Human Error
Day 5% 32%
Evening 6% 25%
Graveyard 2% 30%
If an accident report is selected randomly from the 300 reports,

a. what is the probability that the accident occurred on the graveyard shift?
b. what is the probability that the accident occurred due to human error?
c. what is the probability that the accident occurred due to unsafe conditions?
d. what is the probability that the accident occurred on either the evening or the graveyard
shift?
9. Interest centers around the nature of an oven purchased at a particular department store. It
can be either a gas or an electric oven. Consider the decisions made by six distinct customers.
a. Suppose that the probability is 0.40 that at most two of these individuals purchase an
electric oven. What is the probability that at least three purchase the electric oven?
b. Suppose it is known that the probability that all six purchase the electric oven is 0.007
while 0.104 is the probability that all six purchase the gas oven. What is the probability
that at least one of each type is purchased?
10. It is common in many industrial areas to use a filling machine to fill boxes full of product. This
occurs in the food industry as well as other areas in which the product is used in the home, for
example, detergent. These machines are not perfect, and indeed they may A, fill to
specification, B, underfill, and C, overfill. Generally, the practice of underfilling is that which
one hopes to avoid. Let P(B) = 0.001 while P(A) = 0.990.
a. Give P(C).
b. What is the probability that the machine does not underfill?
c. What is the probability that the machine either overfills or underfills?
II. Conditional probability

1. If R is the event that a convict committed armed robbery and D is the event that the convict
pushed dope, state in words what probabilities are expressed by
a. P(R|D);
b. P(D'|R);
c. P(R'|D').
2. A class in advanced physics is composed of 10 juniors, 30 seniors, and 10 graduate students.
The final grades show that 3 of the juniors, 10 of the seniors, and 5 of the graduate students
received an A for the course. If a student is chosen at random from this class and is found to
have earned an A, what is the probability that he or she is a senior?
3. In the senior year of a high school graduating class of 100 students, 42 studied mathematics,
68 studied psychology, 54 studied history, 22 studied both mathematics and history, 25
studied both mathematics and psychology, 7 studied history but neither mathematics nor
psychology, 10 studied all three subjects, and 8 did not take any of the three. Randomly select
a student from the class and find the probabilities of the following events.
a. A person enrolled in psychology takes all three subjects.
b. A person not taking psychology is taking both history and mathematics.
4. In USA Today (Sept. 5, 1996), the results of a survey involving the use of sleepwear while
traveling were listed as follows:
Male Female Total
Underwear 0.220 0.024 0.244
Nightgown 0.002 0.180 0.182
Nothing 0.160 0.018 0.178
Pajamas 0.102 0.073 0.175
T-shirt 0.046 0.088 0.134
Other 0.084 0.003 0.087
a. What is the probability that a traveller is a female who sleeps in the nude?
b. What is the probability that a traveller is male?
c. Assuming the traveller is male, what is the probability that he sleeps in pajamas?
d. What is the probability that a traveller is male if the traveller sleeps in pajamas or a T-
shirt?
5. Pollution of the rivers in the United States has been a problem for many years. Consider the
following events:
A: the river is polluted,
B: a sample of water tested detects pollution,
C: fishing is permitted.
Assume P(A) = 0.3, P(B|A) = 0.75, P(B|A') = 0.20, P(C|A∩B) = 0.20, P(C|A'∩B) = 0.15, P(C|A∩B')
=0.80, and P(C|A' ∩ B') = 0.90.
a. Find P(A ∩ B ∩ C).
b. Find P(B' ∩ C).
c. Find P(C).
d. Find the probability that the river is polluted, given that fishing is permitted and the
sample tested did not detect pollution.
6. A class in advanced physics is comprised of 10 juniors, 30 seniors and 10 graduate students.
The final grades showed that 3 of the juniors, 10 of the seniors and 5 of the graduate students
received an A for the course. If a student is chosen at random from this class and is found to
have earned an A, what is the probability that he or she is a senior?
7. Random samples of 200 adults are classified below according to sex and the level of education
attained.
Education Male Female Total
Elementary 38 45 83
Secondary 28 50 78
College 22 17 39
Total 88 112 200
If a person is picked at random from this group, find the probability that
a. the person is a male, given that the person has a secondary education
b. the person does not have a college degree, given that the person is a female
8. What is the probability of getting three heads in three flips of a balanced coin?
9. Three balls are drawn successively from a box consisting of 6 red balls, 4 white balls and 5 blue
balls. Find the probability that they are drawn in the order red, white and blue if each ball is a)
replaced and b) not replaced.
10. A pair of dice is thrown twice. What is the probability of getting totals of 7 and 11.
III. Bayes’ Rule
1. In a state where cars have to be tested for the emission of pollutants, 25 percent of all cars
emit excessive amounts of pollutants. When tested, 99 percent of all the cars that emit
excessive amounts of pollutants will fail, but 17 percent of the cars that do not emit excessive
amounts of pollutants will also fail. What is the probability that a car fails the test actually
emits excessive amounts of pollutants?
2. In a cannery, assembly line I, II, and III accounts for 50, 30, and 20 percent of the total output.
If 0.4 percent of the cans from assembly line I are improperly sealed, and the corresponding
percentages for assembly lines II and III are 0.6 and 1.2 percent, what is the probability that
a. a can produced by this cannery will be improperly sealed;
b. an improperly sealed can (discovered at the final inspection of outgoing products) will
have come from assembly line I?
3. Software to detect fraud in consumer phone cards tracks the number of metropolitan areas
where calls originate each day. It is found that 1% of the legitimate users originate calls from
two or more metropolitan areas in a single day. However, 30% of fraudulent users originate
calls from two or more metropolitan areas in a single day. The proportion of fraudulent users
is 0.01%. If the same user originates calls from two or more metropolitan areas in a single day,
what is the probability that the user is fraudulent?
4. An inspector working for a manufacturing company has a 99% chance of correctly identifying
defective items and a 0.5% chance of incorrectly classifying a good item as defective. The
company has evidence that its line produces 0.9% of nonconforming items.
a. What is the probability that an item selected for inspection is classified as defective?
b. If an item selected at random is classified as non-defective, what is the probability that
it is indeed good?
5. Police plan to enforce speed limits by using radar traps at four different locations within the
city limits. The radar traps at each of the locations L1, L2, L3, and L4 will be operated 40%,
30%, 20%, and 30% of the time. If a person who is speeding on her way to work has
probabilities of 0.2, 0.1, 0.5, and 0.2, respectively, of passing through these locations, what is
the probability that she will receive a speeding ticket?
6. Suppose that the four inspectors at a film factory are supposed to stamp the expiration date on each
package of film at the end of the assembly line. John, who stamps 20% of the packages, fails to stamp
the expiration date once in every 200 packages; Tom, who stamps 60% of the packages, fails to stamp
the expiration date once in every 100 packages; Jeff, who stamps 15% of the packages, fails to stamp the
expiration date once in every 90 packages; and Pat, who stamps 5% of the packages, fails to stamp the
expiration date once in every 200 packages. If a customer complains that her package of film does not
show the expiration date, what is the probability that it was inspected by John?
7. A regional telephone company operates three identical relay stations at different locations.
During a one-year period, the number of malfunctions reported by each station and the causes
are shown below.
Station A B C
Problems with electricity supplied 2 1 1
Computer malfunction 4 3 2
Malfunctioning electrical equipment 5 4 2
Caused by other human errors 7 7 5
Suppose that a malfunction was reported and it was found to be caused by other human
errors. What is the probability that it came from station C?
8. A paint-store chain produces and sells latex and semigloss paint. Based on long-range sales,
the probability that a customer will purchase latex paint is 0.75. Of those that purchase latex
paint, 60% also purchase rollers. But only 30% of semigloss paint buyers purchase rollers. A
randomly selected buyer purchases a roller and a can of paint. What is the probability that the
paint is latex?
9. Denote by A, B, and C the events that a grand prize is behind doors A, B, and C, respectively.
Suppose you randomly picked a door, say A. The game host opened a door, say B, and showed
there was no prize behind it. Now the host offers you the option of either staying at the door
that you picked (A) or switching to the remaining unopened door (C). Use probability to
explain whether you should switch or not.
10. There is a 50-50 chance that the queen carries the gene of hemophilia. If she is a carrier, then
each prince has a 50-50 chance of having hemophilia independently. If the queen is not a
carrier, the prince will not have the disease. Suppose the queen has had three princes without
the disease. What is the probability the queen is a carrier?

Lecture Notes 2 Probability

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What are the different components of a probability experiment?

What are the different components of a probability experiment?

What is a sample space and how is it represented?

What is a sample space and how is it represented?

Lecture Notes 2 – Probability 1

Engr. Caesar Pobre Llapitan

I. SAMPLE SPACE AND RELATIONSHIPS AMONG EVENTS

Chance outcomes are represented by

Observation refer to any recording of information, whether it be numerical or categorical.

Thus, an experiment is realized whenever the set of conditions is realized.

By proceeding along all paths, the sample space is

S = {DDD, DDN, DND, DNN, NDD, NDN, NND, NNN}

S = {x | x is a city with a population over 1 million}

(A ∪ B) ∩ C' = regions 2, 6, and 7

g. list the elements corresponding to the event A∩B;

c. regions 1 and 2 together;

II. COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

A. The Fundamental Counting Principle

Theorem 1: Permutations of n Things n at a Time

Theorem 2: Permutations of n Things r at a Time

Theorem 3: Circular permutation

b. A will serve only if he is president;

c. B and C will serve together or not at all;

d. D and E will not serve together?

The number of combinations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is

III. RULES OF PROBABILITY

There are two rules which are very important.

2. The sum of all the probabilities in the sample space is 1

There are some other rules which are also important.

3. The probability of an event which cannot occur is 0.

4. The probability of an event which must occur is 1.

3. In a poker hand consisting of 5 cards, find the probability of holding

Theorem 2: Additive rule (Unions of two events)

For 3 events A, B, and C:

Theorem 3: Mutually exclusive events

B the event that 11 comes up

4. What are the odds if the probability of an event is 0.20?

Strategy for Converting from Odds to Probability

b. ends with a vowel

This information can be placed into a joint probability distribution

Aberations 0.50-0.025 = 0.475 0.05(0.50) = 0.025 0.50

Brochmailians 0.30-0.021 = 0.279 0.07(0.30) = 0.021 0.30

Chompieliens 0.20-0.020 = 0.180 0.10(0.20) = 0.020 0.20

Total 0.934 0.066 1.00

The joint probability P(Defective and Brochmailians) = P(Defective|Brochmailians)P(Brochmailians).

Employed Unemployed Total

Male 460 40 500

Female 140 260 400

Total 600 300 900

Find P(M E) and P(E  M).

P(BA) = P(B) or P(AB )=- P{A)

D. General Multiplication Rule

P(A  B) = P(A)  P(B  A) = P(B)  P(A  B)

Independent Events (Special Multiplication Rule)

(b) To calculate the conditional probability in this case, notice that

Formally, we state the Bayes’ theorem:

b) The desired probability is

2. In answering a question on a multiple-choice test, a student either knows the answer or

b. P(A  B) e. P[(A  B)']

3. The analysis of shafts for a compressor is summarized by conformance to specifications.