Homework/Assignment: Answer

Homework/Assignment 6
(Chapter 4: Random Numbers)
Full Name of submitter: Cao Thị Minh Anh Student ID: IELSIU18002
Your Group number is: 2
Group members are:

Student ID Name
1 IELSIU18002 Cao Thị Minh Anh
2 IELSIU18003 Cao Đoàn Trúc Phương Anh
3 IELSIU18068 Trương Ngọc Huyền Linh
4 IELSIU18096 Lương Thanh Bảo Ngọc
5 IELSIU18254 Đinh Thị Hồng Vui
6 IELSIU17041 Lê Phạm Hồng Ân
7 IELSIU18092 Trần Thị Hoàng Ngân
ANSWER
Example 3-3
Monthly sales of a certain product are believed to follow the probability distribution given
below. Suppose the company has a fixed monthly production cost of $9000 and that each item
brings $6. Find the expected monthly profit from product sales.
Number of items, x P(x) xP(x) h(x) h(x)P(x)

5000 0.2 1000 2000 400
6000 0.3 1800 4000 1200
7000 0.2 1400 6000 1200
8000 0.2 1600 8000 1600
9000 0.1 900 10000 1000
1 6700 5400
E( aX +b)=aE ( X )+b
E( 6 X−9000)=6 E( X )−9000=(6)(6700)−9000=31200
Example μ=1. 15
Variance calculation
X P(X ) ( X −µ)2 ( X −µ)2 × P(X )
0 0.37 (0−1.15)2 ¿ 1.32 (1.32) (0.37) = .49
1 0.31 0.02 0.01
2 0.18 0.72 0.13
3 0.09 3.42 0.32
4 0.04 8.12 0.32
5 0.01 14.82 0.15
Σ( X −µ) 2. P( X )=1.41
The variance = 1.41
Standard deviation = √ 1.41=1.19
Example 3.5
Telephone manufacturers now offer 1000 different choices for a telephone (as combinations of
color, type, options, portability, etc.). A company is opening a large regional office, and each of
its 200 managers are allowed to order his or her own choice of a telephone. Assuming
independence of choices and that each of the 1000 choices is equally likely, what is the
probability that a particular choice will be made by none, one, two, or three of the managers?
Solution:
n = 200
μ = np = (200)(0.001) = 0.2
The pdf of Poisson Distribution:
e−λ λ x
p x; λ =
( ) for x=0,1,2 , …
x!
The probability that a particular choice will be made by
 none of the managers
0 −0.2
0.2 e
P ( 0,0.2 )= =0.82
0!
 one of the managers
0.21 e−0.2
P ( 1,0.2 )= =0.16
1!
 two of the managers
0.22 e−0.2
P ( 2,0.2 )= =0.02
2!
 three of the managers
0.23 e−0.2
P ( 3,0.2 )= =0.00
3!
Example 3.6
Suppose that automobiles arrive at a dealership in lots of 10 and that for time and resource
considerations, only 5 out of each 10 are inspected for safety. The 5 cars are randomly chosen
from the 10 on the lot. If 2 out of the 10 cars on the lot are below standards for safety, what is
the probability that at least 1 out of the 5 cars to be inspected will be found not meeting safety
standards?
Solution:
We have:
S N −S
P( x )=
( X )( n−x )
( Nn )
x: the number of successes
n: the number of selections without replacement from the population of N elements
S: successes
(N-S): failures
The probability that 1 out of the 5 cars to be inspected will be found not meeting safety
standards
2 (10−2) 2 8 2! 8!
( 1 ) ( (5−1) ) ( 1)( 4 ) 1 ! 1! 4 ! 4 ! 5
P(1)= = = = =0.556
( 5 ) ( 5 ) 5!5! 9
10 10 10!
The probability that 2 out of the 5 cars to be inspected will be found not meeting safety
standards
2 (10−2) 2 8 2! 8 !
( 1 ) ( (5−2) ) ( 1)( 3) 1! 1 ! 3 ! 5 ! 2
P(2)= = = = =0.222
( 5 ) ( 5 ) 5 ! 5! 9
10 10 10 !
The probability that at least 1 out of the 5 cars to be inspected will be found not meeting safety
standards
P(1)+ P(2)=0.556+0.222=0.778
Therefore, the probability that at least 1 out of the 5 cars to be inspected will be found not
meeting safety standards is 0.778.
Example 3.7
According to news reports in early 1995, among the first Pentium chips Intel made, some had a
peculiar defect, which rendered some rarely carried-out arithmetic operations incorrect. Any
chip could therefore be classified into one of three categories: Good, Broken (useless), or
Defective (operable except for the peculiar defect described above). Suppose 70% of the chips
made were good, 25% had the peculiar defect, and 5% were broken. If a random sample of 20
chips was selected, what is the probability that 15 were good, 3 defective, and 2 broken?
Solution:
We have: n: number of random samples selected.
pk : probability of each status chips may have
x k : number of chips supposed to have in each status.
Using multinomial distribution, the probability that 15 chips were good, 3 defective and 2
broken is:
n!
P ( x 1 , x 2 , x 3 )= p1x p x2 p x3
1 2 3
x1 ! x 2 ! x 3 !
20 !
→ P ( 15,3,2 )= ( 0.715)(0.25 3)(0.052 )=0.0288
15 ! 3 ! 2!
Example 3.8
A recent study indicates that Pepsi-Cola has a market share of 33.2% (versus 40.9% for Coca-
Cola). A marketing research firm wants to conduct a new taste test for which it needs Pepsi
drinkers. Potential participants for the test are selected by random screening of soft drink users
to find Pepsi drinkers. What is the probability that the first randomly selected drinker qualifies?
What’s the probability that two soft drink users will have to be interviewed to find the first
Pepsi drinker? Three? Four?
Solution:
We have:
p: probability of the first success in finding the first Pepsi drinker (p = 32% = 0.332)
q: probability of each time’s failure in finding the first Pepsi drinker (q = 1 – 0.332 = 0.668)
x: number of trials (x = 1, 2, 3, …)
The probability that the first randomly selected drinker qualifies:
P( x=1)= pq(x−1)=(0332)(0.668)(1−1)=0.332
The probability that 2 soft drink users will have to be interviewed to find the first Pepsi drinker:
P( x=2)= pq(x−1)=(0332)(0.668)(2−1)=0.222
P ( x=3 )= pq (x−1)= ( 0332 )( 0.668 )( 3−1)=0. 148
P( x=4)= pq( x−1)= ( 0332 )( 0.668 )( 4−1) =0.099
Example 3-9
The time a particular machine operates before breaking down (time between breakdowns) is
known to have an exponential distribution with parameter ʎ = 2. Time is measured in hours.
What is the probability that the machine will work continuously for at least one hour? What is
the average time between breakdowns?
Solution:
We have probability density function of exponential distribution: F (x)=1−e−ʎx
The probability that the machine will work continuously for at least 1 hour:
¿
x
P( X ≥ x)=e−ʎ
Then,
¿
P( X ≥ 1)=e(−2 1)=0.1353
The average time between breakdowns:
1 1
E( X)= = =0.5
ʎ 2

Homework/Assignment: Answer

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Homework/Assignment: Answer

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Homework/Assignment: Answer

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

What is the probability distribution used to model the number of cars inspected that do not meet safety standards?

What is the probability that a randomly selected chip from a sample of 20 is good?

Homework/Assignment 6

(Chapter 4: Random Numbers)

Group members are:

Number of items, x P(x) xP(x) h(x) h(x)P(x)

You might also like