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Chapter 5 - Recruitment and Selection 100 Years

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Journal of Applied Psychology © 2017 American Psychological Association

2017, Vol. 102, No. 3, 291–304 0021-9010/17/$12.00 http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/apl0000081

Solving the Supreme Problem: 100 Years of Selection and Recruitment at


the Journal of Applied Psychology

Robert E. Ployhart Neal Schmitt


University of South Carolina Michigan State University

Nancy T. Tippins
CEB, Greenville, South Carolina
This article is intended solely for the personal use of the individual user and is not to be disseminated broadly.

This article reviews 100 years of research on recruitment and selection published in the Journal of
This document is copyrighted by the American Psychological Association or one of its allied publishers.

Applied Psychology. Recruitment and selection research has been present in the Journal from the very
first issue, where Hall (1917) suggested that the challenge of recruitment and selection was the Supreme
Problem facing the field of applied psychology. As this article shows, the various topics related to
recruitment and selection have ebbed and flowed over the years in response to business, legal, and
societal changes, but this Supreme Problem has captivated the attention of scientist–practitioners for a
century. Our review starts by identifying the practical challenges and macro forces that shaped the
sciences of recruitment and selection and helped to define the research questions the field has addressed.
We then describe the evolution of recruitment and selection research and the ways the resulting scientific
advancements have contributed to staffing practices. We conclude with speculations on how recruitment
and selection research may proceed in the future. Supplemental material posted online provides addi-
tional depth by including a summary of practice challenges and scientific advancements that affected the
direction of selection and recruitment research and an outline of seminal articles published in the Journal
and corresponding time line. The 100-year anniversary of the Journal of Applied Psychology is very
much the celebration of recruitment and selection research, although predictions about the future suggest
there is still much exciting work to be done.

Keywords: selection, recruitment, staffing

Supplemental materials: http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/apl0000081.supp

The history of the Journal of Applied Psychology (JAP) is very after all the chief national resources.” And remarkably, the third
much the history of selection and recruitment. In fact, the first article (Terman et al., 1917) focused entirely on the use of psy-
article ever published in JAP devoted most of its discussion to chological assessments for the selection of police and firefighters.
selection (Hall, Baird, & Geissler, 1917). The authors were pre- Applied psychology grew from a desire to make the world a better
occupied with the importance of selection and classification based place, and selection was the field in which the movement gained
on what they called “mental equipment” (i.e., individual differ- traction.1
ences): “The problem is so far-reaching that one finds it difficult to Selection was and remains the Supreme Problem of applied
determine whether the burden of its significance attaches to its psychologists. Selection has historically been operationalized as a
psychological, its economic, or its social aspects” (Hall et al., predictive hypothesis linking individual knowledge, skills, abili-
1917, p. 6). In the second article in the same issue, Hall (1917, p. ties, and other characteristics (KSAOs) to individual outcomes,
12) made broad reference to selection and called it the Supreme such as job performance and turnover (Guion, 1965). The predic-
Problem: “. . . the supreme problem of diagnosing each individual, tive hypothesis is simple: Hire those with the highest scores on
and steering him toward his fittest place, which is really the measures of the KSAOs critical for effective performance on the
culminating problem of efficiency, because human capacities are job. Establishing the evidence needed to operationalize, test, and
apply this hypothesis is not simple. For example, selection is
dependent on the existence of a pool of potential candidates
(Taylor & Russell, 1939). Hence, the field of recruitment devel-
This article was published Online First January 26, 2017.
oped to focus on identifying people who are likely to have the
Robert E. Ployhart, Department of Management, University of South
Carolina; Neal Schmitt, Department of Psychology, Michigan State Uni- necessary KSAOs and attracting them, so that they will apply to
versity; Nancy T. Tippins, CEB, Greenville, South Carolina. firms and those who possess the prerequisite KSAOs can be
We thank Michael C. Campion for his assistance in preparing this
manuscript.
Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Robert E. 1
It is interesting to observe that these themes—psychological, eco-
Ployhart. Department of Management, University of South Carolina, Co- nomic, and social—remain (to varying degrees) consistently intermingled
lumbia, SC 29208. E-mail: ployhart@moore.sc.edu over the 100 years of selection and recruitment research.

291
292 PLOYHART, SCHMITT, AND TIPPINS

selected. Recruitment is the “attraction hypothesis” that is the business and industry in the first two thirds of the twentieth
precursor to the “predictive hypothesis.” Recruitment and selection century created specialized and relatively distinct jobs (e.g., fac-
are thus interrelated, but recruitment is the feeder into selection tory employees in different positions involving specific work
(Schneider, 1987). activities). The task for recruitment and selection in many organi-
The purpose of this article is to celebrate a century of research zations was one of identifying the KSAOs needed in each job and
on selection and recruitment that has been published in JAP. This then hiring people with those KSAOs. However, as work became
is a selective review because it privileges research published increasingly knowledge-based and even more specialized, the
within JAP. However, given JAP’s leadership role in the field of number of qualified applicants in many fields decreased, and
applied psychology, a review of selection and recruitment research competition for those candidates with advanced skills and training
published in JAP is essentially a review of thought leadership contributed to job mobility and created a greater need to under-
within the community of selection and recruitment scholars. The stand how to source and attract top candidates (i.e., recruitment).
review does not attempt to discuss every article related to selection In addition, many jobs now encompass a wide range of work
and recruitment that was published in the Journal over the last 100 activities and require a much greater degree of interdependence
This article is intended solely for the personal use of the individual user and is not to be disseminated broadly.

years. Instead, the goal of this article is to provide a broad sum- with coworkers. Thus, some firms now hire based on a broad set
This document is copyrighted by the American Psychological Association or one of its allied publishers.

mary of how selection and recruitment research has evolved within of KSAOs required to perform all of the work activities for a
JAP since the Journal’s inception in 1917. We identify major number of jobs in a job family, the ability to acquire new knowl-
practice issues that contributed to what the Journal published and edge and skills related to the job family, and personal character-
the ways the Journal’s publications helped shape practice. We istics related to effective interactions with others.
highlight examples of noteworthy contributions; articles that de- The enormous changes in politics, societal attitudes, and the
fined the field; and various trends, ebbs, and flows of scholarship laws related to employment have fundamentally redefined the
for the last 100 years. The way we identified these exemplary nature of selection and recruitment and also created important
contributions was based on our collective judgment. We did not boundaries between what are considered lawful and unlawful
calculate interrater reliability and agreement indices because we practices. Passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act in the United States
did not code the articles according to any precise criteria. made employment discrimination based on protected group status
In the sections that follow, we first summarize the practice unlawful and gave the Equal Employment Opportunity Commis-
trends that have occurred over time and then use these trends to sion (EEOC) authority to monitor such activity.2 The simultaneous
understand the evolution of recruitment and selection research. rise of employment litigation (with corresponding use of adverse
Having such a long view to the past helps one make reasonable impact statistics to operationalize discrimination) and recognition
speculations about the future, so we conclude with a brief discus- of moderate to large racioethnic and sex-based subgroup differ-
sion of the major issues (both applied and research issues) we ences on many predictors led researchers to strive for ways to
expect the field to confront and address in the next several decades. balance the goals of validity and diversity. At the same time,
affirmative action requirements encouraged employers to change
Summary of Practice Challenges Shaping Selection their recruitment practices and seek out members of protected
and Recruitment classes. Finally, short of the legal context, nothing has affected
selection and recruitment as much as war. World War I and World
Articles published in the first issue of JAP noted that applied War II created a need for selection and classification research on
psychology was finally in a place to become a legitimate science an unprecedented scale.
and was no longer inferior to what these authors called “pure Supplemental Appendix A (available online in supplemental
science” (Geissler, 1917; Hall, 1917; Hall et al., 1917). For exam- materials) provides a summary of practice challenges and scien-
ple, Hall (1917, p. 12) questioned: “Must we not, therefore, infer tific developments that shaped the nature of selection and recruit-
that such facts as these suggest that we read just the old differen- ment research. Supplemental Appendix B offers a detailed timeline
tiation between pure and applied psychology, and realize that of research publications. The articles listed in supplemental Ap-
research in the latter field may be just as scientific as in any other, pendix B resulted from a reading of all article titles and abstracts
and that the immediate utility of our results is at least no longer a and, in many cases, portions of the articles. Our attempt was to
brand of scientific inferiority?” What distinguished this new sci- identify changes in the nature of problems explored in JAP articles
entific field of applied psychology was recognition that pressing or new approaches to the study of problems. The reason for
practical challenges were not directly being addressed by the more including an article is provided in the “Comment” column of the
“pure” or what we today call “basic” areas of psychology. Science appendix. The articles referenced in that table are not necessarily
could benefit practice, and practice could benefit science. Indeed, the best or even the most influential articles on the topics ad-
throughout the last 100 years, what has made applied psychology dressed; nearly always, subsequent research on the topic went well
so dynamic and vibrant has been its close connection to business beyond the article cited in providing understanding of the issue(s).
and industry. However, this linkage may not always be obvious, One of the authors did the initial work on this appendix; the other
and the strength of the relationship can be a source of some two authors reviewed the appendix, added some articles, and
concern for those interested in maintaining a healthy scientist–
practitioner model of organizational psychology research and prac-
2
tice. In 1978, Executive Order 12086 gave the Office of Federal Contract
Compliance Programs (OFCCP) the authority to monitor compliance with
Changes in business, economics, the legal and political envi- Executive Order 11246, as amended; Section 503 of the Rehabilitation Act
ronment, and societal systems have shaped the trajectory of selec- of 1973, as amended; and the Vietnam Era Veterans’ Readjustment As-
tion and recruitment research. In terms of business challenges, sistance Act of 1974, as amended; of federal contractors.
SOLVING THE SUPREME PROBLEM 293

deleted others when appropriate. The end result represents our noteworthy for two reasons. First, the focus on job and work
collective judgment about what represents a substantive change in characteristics that affect applicants’ perceptions of job attractive-
the topic or emphasis placed on an area. Supplemental Appendix ness and their job choice foreshadows research that would not
C concludes the article with speculations about future research reappear until the 1980s. Second, it studied college students, which
needs in the areas of recruitment and selection. We now turn to at the time was considered quite novel: “Our interest is in isolating
examine how recruitment and selection research published in JAP such dimensions of job incentives among groups of undergraduate
has reflected these changes in business, economics, the legal and college students as an unexplored research area related to occupa-
political environment, and societal systems. tional choice among students. . . .” This comment is interesting
given that an overreliance on college students as subjects would
become a concern of later recruitment research (e.g., Breaugh,
Recruitment Research in JAP
2013). Another noteworthy article was authored by Weitz (1956),
Recruitment refers to a broad set of activities that connect who conducted a field experiment on applicants to estimate the
applicants to organizations and their jobs. Applicants may be effects of job expectations on turnover for life insurance agents.
This article is intended solely for the personal use of the individual user and is not to be disseminated broadly.

active (i.e., currently looking for or applying to new jobs) or This article appears to be the first that examined applicants’
This document is copyrighted by the American Psychological Association or one of its allied publishers.

passive (i.e., open to new employment opportunities but not ac- “realistic job concept,” a precursor to the realistic job preview
tively looking), and internal (looking for new job opportunities (RJP).
within one’s existing firm) or external (looking for new job op- In the 1970s, business and societal changes led to more special-
portunities at a different firm). Recruitment is a process that occurs ized skills and increased employee mobility. Because of the chal-
over time and comprises different stages, starting with the gener- lenges in finding and attracting capable candidates, recruitment
ating and sourcing of active or passive candidates who may research began to be published more frequently and gain program-
become future applicants, to maintaining active applicants who matic momentum. There were three main areas of focus. The first
have applied to the firm, and ending with influencing job choice concentrated on the recruitment interview (i.e., interviews de-
decisions (e.g., Barber, 1998). The field of recruitment is broad signed primarily to attract applicants to a firm) and the factors that
and overlaps with several other literatures, including selection, influenced either applicant or interviewer responses to the inter-
classification, job choice, vocational choice, promotion and suc- view (e.g., Alderfer & McCord, 1970; Cohen & Bunker, 1975;
cession planning, turnover, and person– environment (PE) fit. Schmitt & Coyle, 1976; Simas & McCarrey, 1979). The second
However, at its core, recruitment is about finding and putting the evaluated the effectiveness of different recruiting methods and
right person in the right job at the right time and place to enable strategies (e.g., Decker & Cornelius, 1979; Rynes & Miller, 1983;
firms to implement strategy and create competitive advantage. Sands, 1973). The third explored RJPs and applicant-focused
Therefore, this review will focus on research published in JAP perceptions (Reilly, Tenopyr, & Sperling, 1979; Rynes & Lawler,
primarily from the perspective of organizational recruitment, and 1983; Wanous, 1973).
job choice and attractiveness perceptions held by applicants. Recruitment research in the 1980s largely continued the re-
search of the 1970s: recruitment interviews (Borman, Eaton,
Bryan, & Rosse, 1983; Rynes & Miller, 1983); sourcing strategies
Early Recruitment Research in JAP
(Swaroff, Barclay, & Bass, 1985); and realistic job previews
The first article in JAP that referred to recruitment appeared in (Premack & Wanous, 1985). However, research began to expand
the fourth and last issue of the Journal’s first year (Anonymous, these recruitment strategies in new ways. For example, researchers
1917). The article did not have an author and was simply titled, “A began to study discrimination in recruiter evaluations (Graves &
note on the German recruiting system.” This article had more to do Powell, 1988) and examine different approaches to recruitment,
with the selection and training of recruits into the German military such as internships for college students (Taylor, 1988). Perhaps the
than it did with recruitment, and it was likely published because of most significant new area of research was the inclusion of utility
concerns about World War I in Europe and the United States’ analysis into recruitment (Boudreau & Rynes, 1985). While it had
impending entry into the war. Beyond that one article, there was been recognized that effective recruitment strategies could en-
little published in JAP for almost 50 years that had much to do hance the financial benefits of staffing systems (primarily by
with recruitment. This most likely occurred because World Wars I influencing the selection ratio; Sands, 1973), the article by Boud-
and II created an abundance of skilled workers, and society placed reau and Rynes (1985) was the first to assess the utility of recruit-
a great deal of value on strong loyalty to a single employer; hence ment.
the Supreme Problem was primarily concerned with selection The 1990s saw the Internet become a radical disruptive tech-
challenges (see supplemental Appendix A for more details). How- nology, and a strong economy created intense competition for
ever, there were a few notable exceptions. Kerr (1943) examined highly skilled talent. Recruitment research published during this
electrical employees’ preference for music while at work. This time reflected these trends and became increasingly specialized
article did not directly examine applicants’ desires, but it at least and sophisticated. For example, Martin and Raju (1992) expanded
considered the implications for recruitment. This article is quite utility analysis research to include the more specific consequences
possibly the first to question whether the work environment could of various cut scores on recruitment costs. Barber and Roehling
influence job choice. Bendig and Stillman (1958) continued this (1993) used verbal protocol analysis methods from cognitive psy-
line of work but examined a broader range of job characteristics chology to understand applicant decision processes. Barber, Hol-
(e.g., opportunity to learn new skills, job security) and importantly, lenbeck, Tower, and Phillips (1994) manipulated different inter-
considered the desirability of these characteristics from the per- view formats (e.g., recruitment, selection) and tracked the
spective of future applicants (college students). This article is consequences on applicant information acquisition over time.
294 PLOYHART, SCHMITT, AND TIPPINS

Current Recruitment Research in JAP organization in terms of its employment brand, reputation, or
image.3 Organizational image is important not only because it
The research described in the previous section set the tone for affects applicant attraction and job choice, but also because it may
current recruitment research at JAP. Although this research con- be used to differentiate strategically the firm from its competitors.
tinues to explore the effects of different recruiting strategies on For example, research suggests that recruitment practices (partic-
applicants’ behavior pre- and posthire, the dramatic changes in ularly word-of-mouth) influence applicants’ brand equity percep-
business and society are pushing recruitment research to evolve in tions, while awareness of the organization’s products can influence
new ways. the recruitment process and consequences of recruitment practices
Recruitment and diversity. Many firms have diversity hiring (e.g., Collins, 2007; Collins & Stevens, 2002). Other studies have
goals as part of their mission, so it is not surprising that research focused on the roles of different channels used to communicate
is focusing on how recruitment can enhance workforce diversity. information about the job or company on perceptions of organi-
Much of this work has attempted to identify the recruiting tactics zational image and applicant outcomes (Allen et al., 2007; Cable &
and media that increase the attraction of diverse candidates (Avery, Yu, 2006). Applicants’ organizational image perceptions appear to
This article is intended solely for the personal use of the individual user and is not to be disseminated broadly.

2003; Walker, Feild, Bernerth, & Becton, 2012; Walker, Feild, be highly stable across judges (Highhouse, Broadfoot, Yugo, &
This document is copyrighted by the American Psychological Association or one of its allied publishers.

Giles, Armenakis, & Bernerth, 2009). Other research has linked Devendorf, 2009) and can therefore have important consequences
recruitment to diversity and selection. For example, Newman and on recruitment outcomes. More research is needed to understand
Lyon (2009) found that targeting a diverse and qualified workforce the connections between marketing, recruitment, and organiza-
will reduce adverse impact in subsequent hiring decisions. To- tional image.
gether, these studies show that the effects of diversity in recruit- Theories of recruitment. One of the most profound changes
ment messages are moderate to small and conditional on the beginning in the 1980s and carrying through to current times is a
medium, but even small effects may be useful for increasing the movement toward more theoretically rigorous recruitment re-
diversity of the applicant pool and reducing adverse impact. How- search. Research conducted prior to (approximately) the 1980s had
ever, recruiting large numbers of minority candidates who are not more of a “practice-driven” focus, while subsequent research has
qualified or less qualified than majority candidates will only ex- shifted to more of a “theory-driven” focus. Although there is not
acerbate adverse impact. Because a diverse workforce is a goal for currently a widely accepted “theory of recruitment,” research in
most organizations, the need for more research on this topic is this area has benefitted from blending theory from related litera-
apparent. tures. One theoretical approach adapts theories from cognitive
Recruitment practices and technology. One consistent pro- psychology and social cognition that explain information process-
gram of recruitment research leading into the 1990s focused on the ing, attitude formation, and persuasion (Breaugh, 2013). For ex-
effectiveness of different recruitment practices. This research ma- ample, social psychological theories have been employed to un-
tured to the point where it became possible to use meta-analysis to derstand internships (Zhao & Liden, 2011), recruiting visits
summarize the primary studies and identify the relative impact of (Slaughter, Cable, & Turban, 2014), and recruiting sources (Van
different practices on recruitment outcomes. For example, Chap- Hoye & Lievens, 2009). An alternative theoretical program fo-
man, Uggerslev, Carroll, Piasentin, and Jones (2005) conducted a cuses on PE-fit and has applied it to the understanding of websites
large-scale meta-analysis on the determinants of applicants’ per- (Dineen et al., 2002; Dineen & Noe, 2009), stages of recruitment
ceptions of organizational attractiveness and job choice. They (Swider, Zimmerman, & Barrick, (2014), and national culture
found that fit, hiring expectations, characteristics of the job and (Turban, Lau, Ngo, Chow, & Si, 2001). Other theoretical ap-
firm, and recruiter behavior were the key determinants. They then proaches include brand equity theory (Collins & Stevens, 2002)
extended these findings to test different theoretically derived path and media richness theory (Cable & Yu, 2006).
models. While these various approaches are helpful in understanding
Just as the study of some recruiting practices matured, technol- specific aspects of recruiting processes, they may come at the cost
ogy radically changed traditional recruiting practices and made of capturing the breadth of recruiting practices. One must question
several of them obsolete. First the Internet, and now social media whether such “micro-theories” of specific components within the
and other sources of “Big Data,” have revolutionized the nature of entire recruiting process inhibit a search for a holistic recruiting
recruitment. Nearly all firms use the Internet for recruitment (e.g., framework that is more broadly useful to practitioners (cf.,
career pages), and many use some form of social media (Mulvey, Breaugh, 2013). The comprehensive framework presented by
2013), although it is arguable whether social media enhances Chapman et al. (2005) offers an important start toward developing
recruiting effectiveness. Research on recruitment practices is a general model applicable for practice.
therefore now primarily focused on Internet recruiting. Most of
this research manipulates different Internet/website features to Research and Practice Issues in Recruitment
examine the effects on such outcomes as perceptions of organiza-
tional attraction and application decisions (e.g., Allen, Mahto, & The business, economic, and societal forces of modern times are
Otondo, 2007; Dineen, Ash, & Rowe, 2002; Dineen & Noe, 2009; radically different from those in prior decades. Globalization,
Dineen, Ling, Ash, & DelVecchio, 2007). It is interesting to Internet and mobile technologies, demographic shifts, economic
observe that most of this research has been published nearly a uncertainty, and the speed at which change occurs create a number
decade after Internet recruiting became popular in industry, sug- of practice challenges in recruitment. Organizations now must find
gesting about a 10-year lag between practice and research.
Recruitment and organizational image. A relatively new 3
Although there are distinctions among these constructs, these distinc-
area of recruitment research focuses on how applicants view the tions are not critical for present purposes so we consider them jointly.
SOLVING THE SUPREME PROBLEM 295

effective recruiting strategies that reach a diverse group of people should focus not only on effective recruiting strategies but also on
who live in many parts of the world, have different career expec- efforts to identify where those strategies will be most productive,
tations, and have different levels and kinds of access to electronic and for whom.
technology. However, the focus of current research may not al- Second, organizations often fail to keep data that allow them to
ways be in alignment with the immediate needs of practitioners. As assess the adequacy of their sourcing and attraction methods,
noted, there is an increasing emphasis on theoretical understanding rendering evidence-based decisions difficult if not impossible.
rather than descriptions of recruitment practices (that was more Because of technology, multiple sources of job information exist,
typical in JAP prior to the 1980s). As a consequence, this research and they continually evolve, making it is difficult to isolate the
is less likely to have immediate practical applications even when it sources that influenced a candidate. Therefore, future research will
has interesting theoretical implications or potential future guidance need to be based on complete and accurate data about recruiting
for practice. The practice of recruitment is also changing rapidly activities as well as consider more broadly the sources of infor-
because of technology and economic shifts affecting the location mation available to candidates and determine which are meaning-
of work and the mobility of the applicant pools for many occupa- ful to them.
This article is intended solely for the personal use of the individual user and is not to be disseminated broadly.

tions. Implementation of attracting and sourcing strategies is often Third, much of the recruiting research focuses on the effec-
This document is copyrighted by the American Psychological Association or one of its allied publishers.

proceeding more by trial and error than by systematic, evidence- tiveness of a particular platform or website rather than an
based efforts. Yet because of the rapid changes in recruitment examination of the characteristics that promote its usefulness
practices, research is often focused on out-of-date practices. For for applicants or detract from it. In the future, researchers will
example, the use of want-ads, employment agencies, and company need to move from studying specific technological platforms
employment offices to facilitate recruiting have been largely dis- (e.g., Facebook) toward frameworks that capture the key fea-
continued and replaced with job boards, recruiting websites on tures of the platforms (McFarland & Ployhart, 2015).
company webpages, and applicant tracking systems that manage Fourth, technology and organizations’ need for speed and flex-
the application and selection processes. Instead of recruiting ef- ibility in staffing have created a very dynamic recruitment process
forts being determined by the results of research, they are increas- for many firms that is not reflected in the extant research on the
ingly driven by the appeal of the newest technologies. With these components of recruiting and is not as linear as it was in the past.
challenges as background, we identify some of the major practice Research in the future that adopts designs that do not assume a set,
issues in recruitment that would benefit from greater practitioner- linear recruitment process is likely to produce a more realistic
academic research collaborations. model and provide more actionable conclusions for practitioners.
First, in many situations, different sources of applicants need to Finally, as the academic field has become more specialized, the
be identified. Even though the Great Recession has been over for concerns of the practitioner world have become more integrated.
several years, employment rates remain quite variable across jobs, For example, recruitment and turnover are inextricably connected
industry sectors, and countries. While labor shortages exist for in practice but not in most research (for an exception see Weller,
some occupations in some places, the true magnitude of such talent Holtom, Matiaske, & Mellewigt, 2009). The answers to questions
shortages is often unclear. Whether shortages are because of a lack of whom to recruit and when to recruit are highly affected by
of qualified candidates, unrealistically high hiring expectations by turnover. Recruitment research needs to consider recruitment and
employers, or a combination of the two is not apparent (Cappelli, turnover jointly; they are different sides of the same talent equa-
2012). What is clear is that firms must increasingly focus on tion.
identifying— or sometimes even creating—pools of the necessary
talent earlier in the recruitment process or in locations different
Selection Research in JAP
from their typical recruiting sources. For example, global recruit-
ment is becoming more important because candidates with the Selection involves identifying the critical KSAOs needed for
necessary qualifications are not evenly represented in different effective performance on critical aspects of the job, creating ac-
countries (Ryan & Delany, 2010). Developed countries tend to curate ways of measuring individuals on these KSAOs, and then
have a larger percentage of older workers in the workforce than using the scores on these assessments to make hiring decisions
developing countries, but developing countries have fewer people (Schmitt & Chan, 1998). The ultimate goal is to enhance not only
with advanced skills. As a consequence, employers are forced to job performance, but also organizational performance and com-
recruit in places where there are more plentiful applicants. Alter- petitive advantage. This is the essence of the Supreme Problem
natively, organizations may develop an applicant pool when a introduced by Hall (1917), the “predictive hypothesis” noted by
qualified pool of candidates to source and attract does not exist Guion (1965), and the “performance prediction problem” dis-
(e.g., organizations investing in high school and college pro- cussed by Campbell (1990). Job analysis is used to identify the
grams). Organizations, particularly those in developed countries, critical tasks of a job and the critical KSAOs needed to perform
may also consider nontraditional applicants or atypical work those tasks (Schmitt & Chan, 1998). Once measures of the neces-
schedules for hard-to-fill jobs. For example, applicants beyond the sary KSAOs are identified or developed, appropriate forms of
“normal” age of retirement may offer well-honed skills on a validity evidence should be accumulated. Yet beyond predictive
part-time basis. In addition, organizations may need to turn to validity, a selection system should also try to minimize or elimi-
passive candidates (i.e., those who are not actively engaged in a nate adverse impact, be seen as acceptable to applicants, be con-
job search) to find those who meet the requirements of the firm’s sistent with the firm’s employment brand, and be efficient and
jobs. Along with this effort to identify the passive candidates, cost-effective in delivering reasonable return on investment. Se-
firms may also need to emphasize their competitive advantages to lection research published at JAP has emphasized these topics to
attract such applicants. In summary, future collaborative research varying degrees over the last 100 years.
296 PLOYHART, SCHMITT, AND TIPPINS

Early Selection Research in JAP the 1980s and 1990s, was introduced by Taylor and Russell
(1939), and concerns about mediators and moderators (e.g.,
As noted previously and in supplemental Appendix A, the
Ghiselli, 1963; Dunnette, 1963b) resulted in a much more
nature of the Supreme Problem in the early years of JAP was
complicated model of the relationships between personal char-
largely one of addressing selection challenges created by World
acteristics and performance outcomes than was prevalent in the
War I and the abundance of skilled labor that resulted from that
first several decades of the Journal. The complexities of indi-
conflict. As a result, most of the articles in the first couple of
vidual difference-outcome relationships remain an important
decades (1917 to about 1940) of JAP dealt with the validation of
ability tests for selection into different occupations in various concern of JAP authors (e.g., Aguinis, Beaty, Boik, & Pierce,
contexts. By today’s standards, these were simplistic studies based 2005; Le et al., 2011).
on sample sizes almost always fewer than 100, using only bivariate Because of the Civil Rights movement and related legislation
correlations or charts to display the relationship between test and court cases in the 1960s, researchers reported more com-
scores and performance data, which were usually supervisor rat- parisons of the test performance of members of different de-
ings. However, these studies were attempting to address important mographic groups (e.g., Bartlett & O’Leary, 1969; Kirkpatrick,
This article is intended solely for the personal use of the individual user and is not to be disseminated broadly.

practical problems. Increased sophistication of the predictor and Ewen, Bartlett, & Kattell, 1968). The Civil Rights Act of 1964
This document is copyrighted by the American Psychological Association or one of its allied publishers.

criterion measures used in these studies, and expansion of the produced an explosion of research exploring appropriate meth-
topics related to selection and validation covered, began to appear ods of comparing data from subgroups of examinees and eval-
almost immediately. For example, Thorndike (1920) noted the uating the attributions about the relationships between predic-
presence of a constant error in ratings used as criteria in selection tors and criteria by group. The courts continue to interpret the
research, and Remmers (1934) identified halo error in students’ nature and meaning of employment discrimination in selection,
appraisals of their teachers. The potential of personality tests was and thus this stream of research continues into the 21st century.
addressed by Brandenburg (1925), and the value of the interview Boehm’s (1972) article represents an early attempt to aggregate
as a research and teaching device was discussed by Hartmann studies reporting little evidence of differences in validity coef-
(1933). Developments in data analyses were also published in ficients though there were large differences in group averages
these early decades. Kelley (1934) described the impact of range on some measures. These findings were further supported by
restriction on reliability, a problem still being addressed in our Schmidt, Berner, and Hunter (1973), who argued that findings
literature (e.g., Hunter, Schmidt, & Le, 2006). Multiple correlation of differences in validity for majority and minority groups were
and regression were described in a book by Edgerton (1931), a function of the differences in sample sizes and the fact that
which was reviewed in JAP, but we did not locate any articles previous researchers had incorrectly considered tests of the
using these methods of data analysis until several years later (e.g., significance of the validity in each group separately rather than
Hartkemeier & Brown, 1936; Moore, 1941). However, authors of
conducting tests of differences in the validities across groups.
these early studies using multiple regression did not seem to
The accepted conclusion of this research, and a broadened
recognize the problem of shrinkage of the multiple correlation
differential prediction formulation that considered both inter-
when it was estimated using a large number of predictors in a
cept and slope differences in regression, was that there was no
relatively small sample and the importance of cross-validation.
evidence for demographic slope differences but that differences
Soon additional modes of testing were reported, including bio-
data (Scott, 1938), situational tests (Karn, 1949), group exercises in intercepts usually indicated some overprediction of the per-
(Bass & Norton, 1951), leadership measures (Fleishmann, 1953), formance of lower scoring (on the predictor) minority groups.
assessment centers (Bray & Campbell, 1968), and personality Prior to reaching this “consensus,” there was an active debate
inventories (Ghiselli & Barthol, 1953). The latter article represents regarding the appropriate definition of prediction bias that was
what is probably the first meta-analysis of selection test validities, summarized by Hunter, Schmidt, and Rauschenberger (1977). The
though modern corrections for the magnitude of observed relation- definition of test bias (Cleary, 1968) that was finally accepted
ships were not employed. depended on a bias-free criterion, which also received attention in
The criterion domain also expanded during this period of time to the literature (Hattrup, Rock, & Scalia, 1997; Kraiger & Ford,
include measures of turnover (e.g., Kitson, 1933; Kerr, 1947), 1985). This accepted wisdom (i.e., that minority group perfor-
accidents (Brown & Ghiselli, 1948), and team performance (Wiest, mance is slightly overpredicted by selection tests) has been chal-
Porter, & Ghiselli, 1961), as well as new measurement tools, such lenged recently by Aguinis, Culpepper, and Pierce (2010). Mattern
as behaviorally anchored rating scales (Smith & Kendall, 1963). and Patterson (2013), using a large database of educational data,
Concerns with the criterion, in general, were also expressed (Gaier, showed that there was a slight overprediction of Black and His-
1952; Dunnette, 1963a). Toward the end of this time period, the panic student performance and an underprediction of female per-
use of the multitrait multimethod approach to the study of con- formance. Their analyses employed corrections of validity data for
struct validity was introduced to JAP readers (Locke, Smith, statistical artifacts, the absence of which was one of the Aguinis et
Kendall, Hulin, & Miller, 1964). Wernimont and Campbell (1968) al. criticisms of previous differential prediction research. Berry,
espoused a greater attention, and fidelity, to the criterion in con- Clark, and McClure (2011) have presented data that indicate some
structing and selecting predictor measures. group validity differences in the employment setting that dispel the
notion that differential validity of tests does not exist. However,
Current Selection Research in JAP
Berry and Zhao (2015) corrected for a biased intercept test and
Current concerns about the use of tests. The utility of used operational validities (corrected for artifacts) and found over-
selection procedures, which occupied a number of JAP pages in prediction of African American performance, using meta-analytic
SOLVING THE SUPREME PROBLEM 297

estimates of key relationships. This issue is likely to continue to be new sources of information on personality measures will and
an active area of research. should continue.
Current conceptual and measurement developments in the Concerns about faking personality measures have appeared fre-
criterion. Perhaps because of the articles cited above on the nature quently (e.g., Hogan, Barrett, & Hogan, 2007; Schmitt & Oswald,
of the criterion, and because of dramatic changes in the nature and 2006; Zickar & Robie, 1999), as well as concerns about their use
structure of work (see supplemental Appendix A for more detail), the in other cultures (e.g., Ghorpade, Hattrup, & Lackwitz, 1999).
last several decades of the Journal have been marked by an There have also been articles that examine potential curvilinear
increased attention on the nature of the work performance con- relationships between personality measures and performance out-
struct and the development and use of outcome measures other comes (Le et al., 2011) and the role of mediators in personality–
than overall task performance. Rosenbaum (1976) described ef- performance relationships (e.g., Barrick, Stewart, & Piotrowski,
forts to predict employee theft that seem like a precursor of more 2002). In addition, Drasgow and his colleagues (e.g., Tay, Dras-
recent attention to counterproductive work behavior (Bennett & gow, Rounds, & Williams, 2009) have presented evidence that
Robinson, 2000). Parsing the nature of turnover into functional and ideal point models might be better representations of responses to
This article is intended solely for the personal use of the individual user and is not to be disseminated broadly.

dysfunctional aspects as well as its voluntary or involuntary nature personality items than dominance models. The ideal point response
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(Dalton, Krackhardt, & Porter, 1981) allowed advances in our models posit that some items cannot be endorsed by people who
understanding relative to early concerns with labor turnover. Look- are both more and less extreme in their response to an item.
ing at the positive aspects of work behavior, Smith, Organ, and Test reactions. Beginning perhaps with the publication of an
Near (1983) introduced the notion that organizational citizenship article by Keenan and Kerr (1952) on the fairness of tests as seen
behavior was an important worker outcome that likely was not by employment counselors, researchers and users have been con-
included in traditional ratings of overall or task performance. cerned with the perceptions of selection tests by examinees and
Pulakos, Arad, Donovan, and Plamondon (2000) made the case others. Gilliland’s presentation of selection system fairness from
that employee adaptability to changing work demands was an an organizational justice perspective (Gilliland, 1993) and his test
important aspect of employee performance. Sackett, Zedeck, and of some justice predictions (Gilliland, 1994) have generated many
Fogli (1988) provided an important distinction between typical and dozens of subsequent research articles both in this country and
maximal performance. Finally, a leading influence in these at-
beyond (Steiner & Gilliland, 1996) where these concerns are often
tempts to consider multiple criterion dimensions was the Project A
referred to as social validity (Von Rosenstiel & Woschee, 2011).
work directed by Campbell, McHenry, and Wise (1990).
Most of this research has related these reactions to selection
Current developments in the nature and measurement of
procedures to examinee perceptions of the organization and its
predictors. The expansion of the predictor constructs considered
people rather than to more objective outcomes such as acceptance
as well as the methods used to measure them has continued to be
of jobs or subsequent performance. An exception is the recent
a topic in many of the selection articles appearing in the Journal.
article by McCarthy et al. (2013), who found that reactions indi-
A relatively early delineation of what might be aspects of both the
rectly influenced job performance through the applicants’ test
predictor and criterion domains was the comprehensive taxonomy
scores. These reactions did not impact the criterion-related validity
of worker behavior provided by Fleishman (1967). New methods
of the tests.
of measuring individual differences included the accomplishment
record (Hough, 1984) and the situational judgment test (Motow- Concerns about establishing appropriate evidence of
idlo, Dunnette, & Carter, 1990). Ryan and Sackett (1989) brought validity. A primary concern of selection researchers is validity,
research attention to the use of individual assessments (recently the nature of the evidence one uses to support the attributions
meta-analyzed by Morris, Daisley, Wheeler, & Boyer, 2015), and about employee performance made based on test scores. Early
Van Iddekinge, Putka, and Campbell (2011) may have resurrected selection research relied almost solely on criterion-related validity,
interest in the potential use of vocational interest inventories as the correlation between test scores and scores on performance
selection devices. Arthur, Bell, Villado, and Doverspike (2006) outcomes of interest. This basic design of a validity study has been
provided a meta-analysis of person-fit measures. elaborated and the efficacy of other approaches has frequently
Of all the various selection devices, however, personality mea- been explored by JAP authors. The meaning of validity has been
sures have probably received the most attention in the last 25 discussed in the editions of the Standards for Educational and
years, particularly after Digman (1990) introduced the Big Five Psychological Testing, most recently in 2014. The various man-
and Barrick and Mount (1991) published their meta-analysis of the ners in which studies of criterion-related validity have been con-
validity of measures of these constructs. Instead of examining ducted were described and evaluated by Sussman and Robertson
self-reports of Big Five measures, Oh, Wang, and Mount (2011) (1986). Binning and Barrett (1989) provided a model integrating
examined the meta-analytic validity of observer ratings of person- ideas about various types of validity evidence that has been fre-
ality. They found that observer ratings had higher validity (range quently adapted and discussed. This model will certainly need to
from .18 to .32 corrected) than did self-ratings (range from .05 to be expanded and modified as selection researchers begin to con-
.22). Moreover, the observer ratings displayed incremental validity sider multilevel and cross-level relationships. Questions about
over self-ratings though the reverse was not true. Lievens and what constitutes construct or content validity have been raised in
DeSoete (2011) describe a number of innovative selection tech- JAP (e.g., Murphy, Dzieweczynski, & Zhang, 2009). The use of
niques that show promise as measures of personality constructs latent variable models and corrections for unreliability of measure-
including a variety of serious games that may help organizations ment represent a long term concern that individual difference
improve their image, attractiveness, and, in some instances, the measures give us insight into an underlying construct, although
validity of their selection measures. The search and evaluation of this research seems to have hit its zenith between 1985 and1995.
298 PLOYHART, SCHMITT, AND TIPPINS

Research and Practice Issues in Selection ability of predictor-criterion relationships. However, these meta-
analyses do already and will increasingly include large numbers of
Currently, there are tremendous changes taking place in busi- unpublished studies. How we determine the quality of these pri-
ness (e.g., globalization), society (e.g., demographic shifts, migra- mary studies and when to include them in our meta-analytic work
tion, values, and expectations regarding work), and technology remain troubling issues (see the series of articles on integrity tests
(e.g., mobile devices) (see Appendix A for more details). These headed by Van Iddekinge, Roth, Raymark, & Odle-Dusseau,
changes occur rapidly and often affect operational testing pro- 2012). In addition, the “file drawer” problem persists, and the
grams. Yet, research in selection frequently lags behind these representativeness of the studies included in a meta-analysis usu-
significant shifts, and practitioners have needs that are often unmet ally remains unknown though methods of assessing its likely
by the research literature. First, we continue to search for and need impact on meta-analytic estimates are available (Rothstein, Sutton,
tests or item types that minimize subgroup differences while & Borenstein, 2005).
maintaining high validity and cost-effectiveness. Research on this The concern about meta-analytic source data also hints at the
topic seems to have waned in recent years, perhaps because none need to consider the role of Big Data that is transforming research
This article is intended solely for the personal use of the individual user and is not to be disseminated broadly.

of the “easy” approaches have been effective and because the in most areas of science. In our field, Big Data will likely produce
This document is copyrighted by the American Psychological Association or one of its allied publishers.

potential causes of subgroup differences occur outside of employ- the same opportunities and problems as have been true in other
ment contexts (e.g., Cottrell, Newman, & Roisman, 2015). Emerg- areas of scientific endeavor (e.g., Reichmann, Jones, & Schild-
ing research on innovative methods of evaluating individual capa- bauer, 2011). One could foresee large multiorganizational, multi-
bilities that take advantage of modern technology may identify country data banks that could be used to assess the validity and
new measures that have widespread practical utility and serve to utility of selection tests in a variety of contexts. One can also
maintain validity while reducing subgroup differences. Second, envision Big Data enabling the use of nontraditional predictors
effective strategies for reducing cheating and faking and improv- (e.g., information from social media, credit scores) and the accom-
ing the reliability of various measures, particularly personality panying rise of practical questions regarding the job relevancy of
tests and other self-rating item formats, remain at the forefront of the predictors and personal privacy. Many organizations will seek
practitioners’ concerns. Third, it is perhaps more important than to use Big Data for selection decisions, regardless of whether such
ever to engage applicants in the testing process by providing processes meet the rigor expected by applied psychologists and
instruments that appear relevant to the target job(s) and reinforce required by the U.S. legal system. Therefore, it is vital that selec-
the organization’s brand. There needs to be a recognition that tion researchers consider the potential benefits and risks of such
selection processes have functions other than evaluating the appli- approaches in their research.
cant’s KSAOs, such as conveying information about the job and Unproctored Internet testing, in which an examinee takes a test
the type of organization to which one is applying and attracting the in some convenient location without supervision, has become
applicant to the organization. Although some of this research has increasingly popular in the last decade or so and has now become
been conducted within the area of applicant reactions and attrac- the only method by which some organizations assess large portions
tion (e.g., Bauer, Maertz, Dolen, & Campion, 1998; Chapman et of their applicant pool and the primary method of delivery of
al., 2005), we are calling for research on a broader set of selection- exams by test publishers and consulting firms (Tippins et al.,
related outcomes and answers to questions such as: “How might 2006). This mode of test delivery is convenient for both employer
selection practices shape perceptions of the organization’s culture and applicant, standardizes test administration and scoring proce-
(as opposed to attractiveness)? Do firms that use more “innova- dures, offers substantial reductions in test administration costs, and
tive” selection practices attract or recruit higher-quality candi- provides results quickly. However, it produces significant con-
dates?” Fourth, new techniques for overcoming common problems cerns about cheating, test security, and standardization of the
related to validating test scores in operational settings are needed. testing environment. Perhaps the most commonly recommended
Employers often need to establish the validity of their selection approach to alleviate some of the concerns about these applications
procedures but lack the sample size to utilize traditional validation is to use unproctored test scores as a screen and verify the scores
designs and find no alternative validation strategies that provide with a proctored exam administered to a smaller set of examinees
sufficient evidence to justify the use of a test. They also recognize who met some standard on the unproctored test (e.g., Lievens &
the deficiencies of criteria that are based on supervisory ratings Burke, 2011; Weiner & Morrison, 2009). More sophisticated ap-
and their effect on validity; however, for many jobs there are no proaches use a computer adaptive test as an initial screen and
practical alternatives. Finally, despite the fact that many firms now follow that with a verification test that is also a computer adaptive
hire within a global context, research on global and international test administered in a proctored setting. The score on the initial test
selection issues remains largely absent. can be used as a prior “ability” estimate in beginning the second
One obvious illustration of the gap between selection research proctored exam, thus shortening the testing process considerably
and practice concerns the nature of what is published. It has and allowing for a quick determination of the possibility that a
become rare that primary validation studies are published in JAP, person cheated in some way on the unproctored exam.
as was typical for the first two thirds of the Journal’s history (the Finally, selection research grew out of an interest in individual
often-cited reason is that such studies do not make a significant differences so it is natural that our primary focus has been on the
theoretical contribution). Primary validation studies are still pub- nature of relationships among variables measured at the level of
lished, but they tend to be published in journals with a more the individual. But businesses succeed or fail based on their ability
narrow focus specifically on selection. We now seem to rely on to create performance advantages relative to their competitors.
large scale meta-analytic research that is dependent on these pri- Even though such business-unit outcomes were expressed as rel-
mary studies to establish the existence, magnitude, and generaliz- evant and important in the early days of JAP (e.g., Hall et al., 1917,
SOLVING THE SUPREME PROBLEM 299

drew a connection between “human capacities” and “national practices that are out-of-date by the time the research is published.
resources”), and there was at one time an active literature on utility The extent of the gap may be narrower with respect to selection
analysis; it is only within the past decade that researchers have research, where much effort is focused on refining predictors and
directly examined the impact of selection across multiple levels criteria, developing methods to assess the strength of their rela-
(i.e., individual and organizational levels). Multilevel issues and tionships, and examining the differences in those relationships for
applications were introduced to the selection community by Klein members of protected groups. Most of this research is applicable to
and Kozlowski (2000), with an important implication for selection: the work of the practitioner. For selection research, the gap that
Validity observed at the individual level may not generalize to the does exist often manifests itself in what is not addressed in the
firm level. Indeed, studies of small groups and teams have found research. For example, we have not reached professional consen-
that relationships between individual KSAOs and individual per- sus on how best to assemble evidence of validity when the sample
formance frequently differ from a group’s KSAO composition and size is very small.
group performance (e.g., Barrick, Stewart, Neubert, & Mount, Second, two topics in the selection and recruitment literature
1998; Bell, 2007; LePine, Hollenbeck, Ilgen, & Hedlund, 1997; appear to be overriding concerns: individual capability and diver-
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Neuman & Wright, 1999). Such differences are most profound sity. Most of the selection and recruiting research in JAP answers
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when trying to staff teams with distributed expertise (e.g., cross- one of three questions: How do I accurately determine who has the
functional teams; Mathieu, Tannenbaum, Donsbach, & Alliger, KSAOs to perform a particular job? Where do I find them? How
2014). do I identify people of diverse backgrounds? To date, the impetus
Most of the early work on multilevel selection was theoretical for much of the research on capability and diversity has originated
(e.g., Ployhart, 2004, 2012; Ployhart & Moliterno, 2011). Recent with the legal and social environment in the United States; how-
empirical research finds both similarities and differences from ever, in more recent years, the global business environment has
individual level findings. Ployhart, Van Iddekinge, and MacKenzie highlighted the need to identify a capable workforce with the
(2011) provide evidence that generic human capital in the form of prerequisite KSAOs regardless of their race, creed, color, ethnic-
personality and cognitive ability leads to changes in unit-specific ity, sex, and so forth, as a means of maintaining a competitive
human capital such as training and experience which in turn leads advantage.
to unit service performance and business outcomes. Van Iddekinge Third, both selection and recruitment can be seen from two
et al. (2009) showed that the implementation of selection and points of view: that of the individual candidate and that of the
training programs was related to customer service which in turn organization. The early research in JAP focused on how the
was related to restaurant profits. Kim and Ployhart (2014) found company could find people who possessed the right skill set. Later
that firms that were more selective in their hiring outperformed research in the form of applicant reactions has explored candi-
competitors before, and especially after, the Great Recession. dates’ responses to different recruiting and selection strategies.
Whether or not validity based on group-level criteria is an accept- Although research may address problems from either point of
able replacement in practice for validity that is based on view, most researchers and especially practitioners today recog-
individual-level data is unknown, but demonstrating the business- nize the importance of both.
level consequences of individual differences, selection, and re- Fourth, technology is playing an increasingly important role in
cruitment is helpful for showing that they offer strategic value and recruitment and selection as well as other business processes. A
thus elevates their importance to organizational leaders. great deal of research from the last 20 –30 years looks at ways to
harness the power of technology to improve recruiting and selec-
tion processes in terms of speed and flexibility, and to solve the
Summary
problems it creates (e.g., unproctored Internet testing and the
One hundred years of research in the areas of selection and problem of cheating).
recruitment have answered some questions, left some unanswered,
and raised many new questions. The “answers” that exist are rarely
The Supreme Problem, Version 2.0
definitive and apply to all conditions; rather, the context in which
the research was conducted matters a great deal, with a few notable One century ago, Hall (1917) referred to the challenge of re-
exceptions (e.g., the power of cognitive ability measures to predict cruitment and selection as the “Supreme Problem.” As we look
job performance across many different occupations and levels). It toward the next century of research on recruitment and selection,
would be impossible to list all of the conclusions to be drawn from it seems inconceivable that this Problem will be any less Supreme.
100 years of research; however, there are several important in- Human talent is increasingly the engine and differentiator behind
sights that can be summarized from the literature. organizational competitive advantage, which is leading to greater
First, both selection and recruitment research have tended to recognition that selection and recruitment are strategically valu-
address real-world problems. For most of the 20th and 21st cen- able. The enormous changes in politics, societal attitudes, and the
turies, organizations have had an obvious need to find capable legal system have fundamentally defined the nature of selection,
employees to maintain their competitiveness. The gap between but also created important boundaries that firms still struggle with
practitioners’ concerns and researchers’ interests is narrower in today. So long as there are organizations and jobs, there will be a
recruiting and selection than many other fields within industrial need to find people who best fit them.
and organizational psychology; however, a gap still exists, partic- Yet, in that same first issue of JAP one century ago, Hall et al.
ularly in the area of recruiting where researchers strive to create (1917, p. 6) also noted: “The problem is so far-reaching that one
and substantiate meaningful theories that often have questionable finds it difficult to determine whether the burden of its significance
usefulness for practice or to delve into the efficacy of recruiting attaches to its psychological, its economic, or its social aspects.”
300 PLOYHART, SCHMITT, AND TIPPINS

We envision the science and practice of recruitment and selection on work life balance will continue to grow and substantially
to change in ways to meet the psychological, economic, and social change what aspects of a job are attractive to them.
challenges of the future although the precise nature of the changes The Supreme Problem has remained constant for 100 years, but
is difficult to anticipate. our definitions, frameworks, and methods for understanding the
In terms of psychological challenges, the needs of applicants problem have developed considerably over that time. Enormous
will become more important as the availability of labor in progress has been made, and personnel selection is one of the
occupational areas that are important to the hiring organization successes of applied psychology. We suspect the Problem will
diminishes. The technological revolution will continue to affect reign Supreme for the next 100 years; yet how we address it will
recruiting and selection methodologies in ways that engage appli- evolve in ways driven by changing psychological, economic, and
cants and meet the needs of highly qualified candidates, even as societal forces. Supplemental Appendix C provides our specula-
concepts such as validity and reliability remain central require- tion into the future of recruitment and selection research, organized
ments. In addition, those who work in organizations, including according to the psychological, economic, and social aspects pro-
those who work in recruitment or selection, have their own needs posed by Hall et al. (1917). So long as academics and practitioners
This article is intended solely for the personal use of the individual user and is not to be disseminated broadly.

and expectations of the processes, especially as they relate to continue to collaborate and the field maintains a scientist–
This document is copyrighted by the American Psychological Association or one of its allied publishers.

technology. Although the speed of recruitment and selection pro- practitioner model, the methods for effective recruiting and selec-
cesses, the accuracy of the selection tools, and the effectiveness of tion will continue to develop. Readers will need to wait for the
the recruiting process have been important considerations of prac- 2117 issue of JAP to determine the accuracy of these speculations.
titioners for some time, they are likely to receive increased em-
phasis in light of the demands of business in the 21st century and References
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