Foreign Affairs March April 2021 Issue Now

HOW AMERICA AND CHINA CAN AVOID WAR
MARCH/APRIL 2021
MARCH/APRIL 2021 • VOLUME 100 • NUMBER 2 •
Decline and Fall

Can America Ever Lead Again?
DECLINE AND FALL
F O R E I G N A F F A I R S .C O M
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Volume 100, Number 2
DECLINE AND FALL

Present at the Re-creation? 10
U.S. Foreign Policy Must Be Remade, Not Restored
Jessica T. Mathews
Gone But Not Forgotten 18

Trump’s Long Shadow and the End of American Credibility
Jonathan Kirshner
A Superpower, Like It or Not 28

Why Americans Must Accept Their Global Role
Robert Kagan
The Fractured Power 40

How to Overcome Tribalism
Reuben E. Brigety II
C OV E R : PAB L O D E L CA N
Foreign Policy for Pragmatists 48

How Biden Can Learn From History in Real Time
Gideon Rose
March/April 2021
The World Is Changing
And So Are We
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> Washington DC > Europe > China > Online

ESSAYS
Short of War 58
How to Keep U.S.-Chinese Confrontation From Ending in Calamity
Kevin Rudd
Accomplice to Carnage 73
How America Enables War in Yemen
Robert Malley and Stephen Pomper
How the WTO Changed China 90

The Mixed Legacy of Economic Engagement
Yeling Tan
System Failure 103

America Needs a Global Health Policy for the Pandemic Age
Ashish Jha
A New Conservatism 116

Freeing the Right From Free-Market Orthodoxy
Oren Cass
A Palestinian Reckoning 129

Time for a New Beginning
Hussein Agha and Ahmad Samih Khalidi
The Innovation Wars 142

America’s Eroding Technological Advantage
Christopher Darby and Sarah Sewall
Opening Up the Order 154

A More Inclusive International System
Anne-Marie Slaughter and Gordon LaForge
ON FOREIGNAFFAIRS.COM
Alexander Vindman Isabel Sawhill on Bobi Wine on
on countering authori- rebuilding a divided Uganda’s violent
tarianism. America. election.
March/April 2021
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Democracy on the Defense 163
Turning Back the Authoritarian Tide
Yascha Mounk
The Rate Debate 174

Rethinking Economics in the Age of Cheap Money
James H. Stock
REVIEWS & RESPONSES

The Arena 186
Southeast Asia in the Age of Great-Power Rivalry
Bilahari Kausikan
The Stories China Tells 192

The New Historical Memory Reshaping Chinese Nationalism
Jessica Chen Weiss
Market Value 198

Can Capitalism Serve Democracy?
Binyamin Appelbaum
Recent Books 204
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CONTRIBUTORS
KEVIN RUDD has served as Australia’s prime minister (twice),
its foreign minister, and the leader of its Labor Party.
Proficient in Mandarin, Rudd began his career as a
diplomat, first posted to Stockholm, then to Beijing. Now
president of the Asia Society, Rudd argues in “Short of
War” (page 58) that increased rivalry between the United
States and China is inevitable but catastrophe is not; with
smart diplomacy, the contest can be managed.
YELING TAN studies how globalization changes the incentives

of authoritarian governments. Trained at Harvard, she
is now a professor of political science at the University of
Oregon and the author of the forthcoming book Disaggre-
gating China, Inc.: State Strategies in the Liberal Economic
Order. In “How the WTO Changed China” (page 90), Tan
reckons with the mixed legacy of China’s accession to the
World Trade Organization and the prospect of future
economic reforms.
An expert on pandemic preparedness, dean of the School

of Public Health at Brown University, and a practicing
internist, ASHISH JHA has emerged as a leading advocate
for a bold U.S. federal response to the COVID-19 crisis.
He raised the alarm about the virus last March and has
since published research on masks, testing, and lockdowns.
In “System Failure” (page 103), he makes the case for a
new, less U.S.-centric approach to global health.
A former adviser to such leading Republican figures as

Marco Rubio and Mitt Romney, OREN CASS is widely
known as a conservative antipoverty crusader. After four
years as a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, Cass
now serves as the executive director of American Compass,
an organization he founded that aims to reorient conser-
vative economic thinking. In “A New Conservatism”
(page 116), he calls on the Republican Party to abandon
its obsession with low taxes and free-market economics.
DECLINE AND FALL
W
ith the storm past, it is reasoned argument, with no room in
time to assess the damage, its columns for polemic, for anger,
clean up the mess, and mull for personal attack. A literary tone
what to rebuild and how. Jessica that would be quiet and serious, but
never pretentious. Importance, as the
Mathews and Jonathan Kirshner survey
main criterion in the selection of
the broken, battered world the Biden material—whether the importance
administration has inherited and how was to come from the significance
its players view Washington now. and originality of the subject matter
Robert Kagan traces the gulf between or from the authority of the author.
the United States’ large geopolitical But no concessions to any would-be
burdens and its public’s modest prefer- contributor, humble or great, when it
ences. And Reuben Brigety explores came to clarity of thought, signifi-
the deep domestic divisions that cance of content, and moderation of
Americans have to overcome. language.
My own essay asks whether history
has any direction, and if so, how the For nigh on a century, Foreign Affairs
new administration can find out and has not deviated from that path. It has
follow it. Consider it a valedictory, for been an honor and a privilege to carry
after 20 years at the magazine, this will on the tradition.
be my last issue. —Gideon Rose, Editor
Foreign Affairs was founded in the
wake of World War I by Americans
who believed that with great power
came great responsibility. The United
States could not hide from the world; it
had to engage, intelligently and con-
structively. That required a space for
informed public discussion. And that
meant starting a magazine. George
Kennan captured the vision of the new
publication in his obituary for Hamil-
ton Fish Armstrong, the magazine’s
dominant figure:
A forum for the opinions of others,
expressing no opinion of its own. A
place for fact, for thought, for calmly
What Biden regularly calls “the
power of our example” is
nothing like what it used to be.
– Jessica Mathews
Present at the Re-creation? The Fractured Power

Jessica T. Mathews 10 Reuben E. Brigety II 40
Gone But Not Forgotten Foreign Policy for Pragmatists

PAB L O D E L CA N
Jonathan Kirshner 18 Gideon Rose 48
A Superpower, Like It or Not

Robert Kagan 28
I L L U ST R AT I O N S BY T K
The failures have also been domestic.
Present at the
DECLINE AND FALL
To date, the United States has handled

the COVID-19 pandemic worse than any
Re-creation? other major country. Americans make up
only four percent of the world’s popula-
U.S. Foreign Policy Must Be tion but account for a staggering 25
percent of global COVID-19 cases and 19
Remade, Not Restored percent of deaths from the disease. The
failure has come at all levels: a stunning
Jessica T. Mathews lack of national leadership, an alienated
population unwilling to make modest
sacrifices in the common interest, and a
F
or years, Joe Biden has portrayed health-care system that is deeply inequi-
the presidency of Donald Trump table and administratively fractured.
as an aberration from which the These maladies predated Trump, of
United States can quickly recover. course. President Barack Obama’s
Throughout the 2020 U.S. presidential administration had to design interna-
campaign, Biden asserted that under his tional agreements such as the Paris
leadership, the United States would be climate accord and the Iran nuclear deal
“back at the head of the table.” But a in a way that would avoid the need for
return to the pre-Trump status quo is formal ratification, because the world
not possible. The world—and the knows that the U.S. Senate has been
United States—have changed far too unable to approve a multilateral treaty
much. And although hailing the return for nearly 15 years, even one modeled
of American hegemony might seem directly on U.S. domestic law. But
comforting to Americans, it reveals a Trump’s “America first” populist nation-
degree of tone-deafness to how it sounds alism has cut deeply into the foundation
to the rest of the world. When people of American foreign policy, as his admini-
elsewhere look at Washington’s track stration called into question long-standing
record over the past two decades, they alliances, embraced authoritarian rulers,
don’t see confident leadership. What denigrated allies, and withdrew the
they see, instead, are a series of disasters United States from a wide range of
authored by Washington, chief among international agreements and organiza-
them the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the tions that it founded. Beyond the moves
subsequent destabilization of much of that garnered headlines were a great
the Middle East and the 2008 global many more that made it impossible for
financial crisis. During those decades, valuable institutions to operate. Under
Washington also pursued an ineffectual Trump, for example, the United States
war in Afghanistan, an incoherent policy vetoed every nominee to the World
in Syria, and ill-judged humanitarian Trade Organization’s Appellate Body,
interventions, most notably in Libya. purposely keeping the number of judges
below the required quorum and thereby
JESSICA T. MATHEWS is a Distinguished
Fellow and former President of the Carnegie depriving all 164 WTO member countries
Endowment for International Peace. of the means to resolve disputes.
10 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S ILLUSTRATIONS BY DAVID PLUNKERT

Present at the Re-creation?
March/April 2021 11
Jessica T. Mathews
In short, what Biden regularly calls close allies have therefore been forced
“the power of our example” is nothing into a dangerous game of American
like what it used to be. When it comes roulette, dealing with a United States that
to the pillars of a law-abiding democ- can flip unpredictably from one foreign
racy, the United States is now more an policy posture to its opposite. The logical
example of what to avoid than of what response for them is to hedge: avoiding
to embrace. The country retains mili- major commitments and keeping their
tary primacy and the economic heft to options open, even when it comes to U.S.
impose sanctions, but the former has policies that would otherwise be wel-
limited utility, and the latter are seldom come. In such an environment, every-
effective when wielded unilaterally. To thing that Washington hopes to achieve
achieve its ends, Washington will have will be more difficult.
to heal at home—a long, slow process—
while it rebuilds its power to persuade. PICKING UP THE PIECES
As secretary of state, Antony Blinken Unless there is a current crisis, foreign
will likely lead an important effort to policy generally plays a negligible role
rebuild morale and effectiveness within in U.S. elections. That was never more
the country’s diplomatic corps, luring true than in the 2020 Democratic pri-
back talented professionals who fled mary campaign, in which every contender
Trump’s chaos, broadening recruitment, named repairing democracy at home as
pursuing reforms to make the depart- the most important “foreign policy”
ment’s work more efficient and creative, priority. Biden was an extreme example.
and appointing diplomatic veterans to The fact sheet that accompanied his first
key posts at home and abroad. But such major foreign policy address, delivered
steps will take a long time to make a in October 2019, listed “remake our
difference. Meanwhile, Biden’s team education system” as the first bullet
may be seriously overestimating the point and “reform our criminal justice
leverage that the United States retains system” as the second.
for initiatives that depend on its ex- Nor was foreign policy a significant
ample, such as the global summits the topic in the general election campaign,
president wants to convene on climate even though the past half century has
change and renewing democracy. shown that what occurs overseas is more
Facing a globalized world in which than likely to determine a president’s
power is dispersed and the United States’ legacy. Disastrous wars or foreign
reputation is diminished, Biden will imbroglios severely damaged the admin-
confront cautious, even skeptical foreign istrations of five of Trump’s nine most
partners—a challenge to which American immediate predecessors: Lyndon
leaders are unaccustomed. Much of his Johnson (the Vietnam War), Richard
agenda will have to be carried out through Nixon (Vietnam, again), Jimmy Carter
executive orders, which, the world knows, (the Iran hostage crisis), Ronald Reagan
can be just as quickly undone by the next (the Iran-contra affair), and George W.
president. Foreign governments under- Bush (the Iraq war). Foreign policy is
stand that last year’s presidential election also the source of sudden surprises that
was not a repudiation of Trumpism. Even call for leaders with experience in rapid,
12 F O R E I G N A F FA I R S
high-stakes decision-making and a by officials who know something about

knowledge of recent history. Nonethe- what is being discussed and who sup-
less, voters don’t seem to care much— port, rather than oppose, the mission of
and thus neither do most candidates. the international organizations that
Still, Biden’s intentions can be inferred convene them. These will be sweeping
from his record in government, from what changes, welcomed around the world.
he has said and written in the past few Among specific priorities, climate
years, and, particularly, from his early change is clearly at the top of Biden’s
high-level appointments. Although mind. The president has assembled a
together those things shed a good deal of team whose strength signals the weight
light on what he will try to do, it is too he attaches to this issue: a former secre-
early to know what a U.S. Senate that tary of state (John Kerry) as a special
features the thinnest possible Democratic envoy on climate, an experienced former
majority will allow him to accomplish or head of the Environmental Protection
how doubting foreign governments will Agency (Gina McCarthy) in a newly
respond. Unknowable, too, are the effects created senior environmental post in the
of dangers now building offstage, the White House, a highly regarded state
kinds of systemic shocks that have become official (Michael Regan) to lead the EPA,
almost a norm of the last several decades. and a former Michigan governor
Finally, there are practical issues of (Jennifer Granholm) known for her
sequencing that get lost in campaign expertise in alternative energy sources,
rhetoric. For instance, it is one thing to especially electric vehicles, as head of
say, as Biden has, that new trade agree- the Department of Energy.
ments will have to wait until after the Conversely, Granholm’s nomination
federal government has made major to lead the department (75 percent of
investments in infrastructure and research whose budget goes to nuclear weapons
and development; it is quite another thing and infrastructure) and the choice of
to do that in practice. The world won’t the retired general Lloyd Austin to head
take a time-out while the United States the Department of Defense suggest that
makes badly needed repairs at home. nuclear issues will not be a priority, as
It is certain that Biden will make two neither of them, nor Biden’s national
overarching changes to the foreign security adviser, Jake Sullivan, is a
policy of Trump and his secretary of widely recognized expert in this area.
state, Mike Pompeo. Biden understands Biden will act immediately to extend the
the strength inherent in Washington’s New START agreement with Russia, the
network of allies and friends and will do last remaining major nuclear arms
all he can to rebuild close relationships control treaty. And he will be prepared
with them, especially in Europe. He to spend a great deal of political capital
will also reverse the Trump administra- to rejoin and rescue the Iran nuclear
tion’s dismissive attitude toward multi- deal. But there are many other conse-
lateral problem solving and the interna- quential items in the nuclear portfolio.
tional institutions that make it possible. As vice president, Biden took a strong
Washington will now show up at even stance in favor of reducing the role of
the most boring meetings, represented nuclear weapons in U.S. defense strat-
March/April 2021 13
Jessica T. Mathews
egy, limiting their use to deterrence certain sectors. This is old-fashioned

rather than war fighting. The Trump industrial policy. Whether it is good
administration took the opposite economic policy and where the money will
position, and Biden will need to try to come from are debatable issues; whether
wrench policy back toward his preferred they are the stuff of foreign policy is not.
course. Meanwhile, the country is in the The more closely one examines the
early stages of a second nuclear arms specifics, the more the concept of a foreign
race, this time with both China and policy for the middle class slips away.
Russia. A bloated, $2 trillion nuclear First among the true foreign policy
modernization program is underway that challenges is the need for a balanced,
urgently requires reexamination. Also, nonideological approach to China.
new technologies are being developed Beijing’s military buildup, its provoca-
that will raise the likelihood of an tive maneuvers in the South China Sea,
unintended nuclear war and erase the its increasingly repressive policies
once sharp barrier between conventional (including egregious human rights
and nuclear conflicts. Addressing any of abuses against Uighurs in Xinjiang and
this successfully will require leadership a crackdown on pro-democracy activists
from someone of real stature in the field. in Hong Kong), and its withholding of
critically important information on the
A FOREIGN POLICY emergence of the novel coronavirus that
FOR THE MIDDLE CLASS? led to the COVID-19 pandemic all form a
Throughout the campaign, Biden spoke threatening backdrop. The United
of his intention to craft “a foreign policy States has no choice, however, but to
for the middle class.” No other theme develop a strategy for successful coexis-
was as prominent. In practice, however, tence with this fast-rising economic and
his administration will have to face the military power. Trump’s approach
question of whether such a thing actually swung from fawning praise of Chinese
exists. Changing the rules of interna- President Xi Jinping to unrelieved
tional trade is a small part of the answer, enmity and pointless name-calling. The
but technological change has played a far administration’s single achievement on
larger role than trade in the loss of China was a ballyhooed trade deal that
high-paying U.S. manufacturing jobs. pushed the most important structural
That may be why, when discussing how issues to a second round of negotia-
his foreign policy will help Americans, tions—which never took place. Beijing
Biden tends to veer quickly from trade pledged to buy an additional $200
to other issues: a higher minimum wage, billion worth of U.S. goods and services
better education, more affordable health but has not come close to actually doing
care. All of those are important, but so. Meanwhile, the percentage of
none is the province of foreign policy. Americans with an unfavorable view of
Biden’s “Build Back Better” economic China has increased from 47 percent at
plan promises enormous federal invest- the beginning of Trump’s presidency to
ments in infrastructure—roads, railways, 73 percent last fall, according to the
the electric grid, and broadband Inter- Pew Research Center. Even in the
net—and in research and development in business and financial sectors, which
still hope to profit from access to the democratic ally at tremendous reputa-
huge Chinese market, views on China tional cost. A U.S.-Chinese war would
have turned decidedly negative. be unlikely to stay nonnuclear.
To reverse the downward spiral in
relations, Washington needs to abandon “POSTWAR THINKING
the lazy habit of demonizing China and WITHOUT THE WAR”
drop the pretense that the contest with Biden has taken office at a moment when
Beijing is an ideological struggle akin the broad bipartisan consensus that
to the Cold War. Instead, the United underlay U.S. foreign policy for half a
States needs to identify China’s legiti- century following World War II has
mate interests in Asia and around the collapsed. Since the end of the Cold
world and determine what Washington War—and especially since the end of
should accept, where it should try to the so-called unipolar moment of the
outcompete China, and what it must 1990s—Americans have debated what
confront. It should base its posture on kind of world order is most in their
its relations with allies and potential interest and what role the United States
partners across the region, recognizing should assume in it, without any com-
how conditions have changed since the mon view emerging.
global financial crisis and avoiding an U.S. foreign policy specialists fall into
approach that would force Asian gov- two broad camps, one of which advocates
ernments to choose between the two continued U.S. leadership globally and
superpowers. Washington should get across the full spectrum of issues. The
back into multilateral trade and economic other believes that the United States
agreements in Asia and join forces with should define its interests more narrowly
European countries in its approach to with regard to both where and what.
Beijing, rather than allowing Europe to Within the former group are those who
become a battleground in the U.S.- argue that the world requires leadership
Chinese rivalry. Most urgently, Beijing, and there is no alternative leader to the
Taipei, and Washington (including United States now or on the horizon.
some heedless members of the U.S. Some go further, claiming that U.S.
Congress) must recognize that the “one interests inevitably will be damaged more
China” policy is in imminent danger of by doing too little than by trying to do
unraveling after having kept the peace too much. They favor a unilateral brand
in an interrupted civil war for four of leadership and generally approve of
decades. Instead of maintaining the armed interventions. They tend to rely
policy’s delicate balance of ambiguities, more on familiarity with the past than on
Trump and Pompeo played a game of insight into the future, and they largely
chicken, thus inviting massive and ignore the force of domestic public
utterly unnecessary risks. If the agree- opinion. Others see a more restrained role
ment falls apart, the possibility of war for the United States as the first among
between China and the United States equals in a multilateral community.
will be high, since for the United States Recently, some in this first camp have
to back away from a fight would mean begun to question the fitness of the
abandoning its commitment to a current order in a world characterized
March/April 2021 15
Jessica T. Mathews
by surging populism and authoritarian the various expert views on foreign

governance. They argue for an order policy do not line up exactly with the
defined by a coalition of democracies on differences between the two political
one side in opposition to authoritarian parties, the country’s deep polarization
governments on the other. Biden some- and the almost even partisan representa-
times gives unsettling hints of sharing tion in Congress mean that nearly every
this view. Should such an order emerge, policy shift will be a political battle.
the world would be less likely to deal Meanwhile, public opinion is divided. In
successfully with the global challenges 2016, the last time the Pew Research
that pose the greatest risk to everyone: Center asked Americans to describe their
nuclear proliferation, corruption, cyber- country’s global role “in terms of solving
war, pandemics, and climate change. world problems,” 41 percent of respon-
The second camp sees the U.S. track dents said the United States did “too
record of the past 20 years as evidence much,” 27 percent said “too little,” and 28
that Washington has gotten used to percent said the United States did “the
defining its interests too broadly, which right amount.” Finally, fresh thinking is
has led to a habit of starting wars and always hard to come by, absent a major
military interventions without a clear upheaval. Decades ago, the U.S. diplo-
national interest at stake. Some who hold mat Harlan Cleveland was fond of saying
this view argue for a major retrenchment, that what Washington needed was
paring back the definition of U.S. core “postwar thinking without the war.” That
interests to include little more than remains true—but is unlikely in the
relations with China, Russia, and Europe. present environment.
Promoting democracy, advancing human If the Biden administration contin-
rights, helping poorer nations develop, ues as early indications suggest, it will
and other goals that have consumed U.S. fall squarely into the first of the two
foreign policy in the past three decades broad camps, and if it stumbles, it will
would lie beyond those boundaries. be because it looks too much to the past
Others advocate a much more modest and tries to do more than the country’s
correction, focused mostly on pulling resources, will, and reputation can
back from the troubled Middle East. currently support. It will try hard to
It seems unlikely that this debate will make progress on key issues, although
be resolved within the next four years. it may overreach in attempting to
Far more than in a typical presidency, promote democracy. But if it can
foreign policy during Biden’s time in develop a strategically sound relation-
office will be devoted to undoing a ship with China, reassert itself in
mountain of his predecessor’s mistakes, relations with Russia, pursue economic
consuming not only time and diplomatic policies that see international economic
effort but also political capital. A good growth as a win-win and not a zero-
deal of what can be accomplished will sum competition, and recapture the
depend on whether would-be Trump confidence of allies and friends, it will
successors in the Senate make a return have done more than enough to be
to “America first” policies a main thrust proud of, even without leaving behind a
of their public postures. And although new foreign policy consensus.∂
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by the fear that today’s apparent friend
Gone But Not
DECLINE AND FALL
will become tomorrow’s mortal foe.

Still, also like most abstractions, there
Forgotten is an inviolable kernel of truth to the
anarchy fable. Ultimately, the world of
states is indeed a self-help system, and so
Trump’s Long Shadow countries must necessarily make guesses
and the End of about the anticipated future behavior of
American Credibility others—about what seems likely and the
range of the possible and the plausible.
This is why even though Donald
Jonathan Kirshner Trump has become a member of a
rather exclusive club—one-term U.S.
presidents—the Trump presidency will
I
n the first lecture of any introduc- have enduring consequences for U.S.
tion to international relations power and influence in the world. Leo
class, students are typically Tolstoy warned that “there are no
warned of the pitiless consequences of conditions to which a man may not
anarchy. World politics, they are become accustomed, particularly if he
informed, is a self-help system: in the sees that they are accepted by those
absence of a global authority to enforce around him,” and it is easy, especially
rules, there are no guarantees that the for most insular Americans, to implic-
behavior of others—at times, danger- itly normalize what was in fact a norm-
ous and malevolent others—will be shattering approach to foreign policy.
restrained. With their very survival on Level whatever criticisms you may
the line, countries must anticipate about the often bloodstained hands of
the worst about the world and plan and the American colossus on the world
behave accordingly. stage, but Trump’s foreign policy was
Like most abstractions, IR 101’s different: shortsighted, transactional,
depiction of the consequences of anar- mercurial, untrustworthy, boorish,
chy is a radical oversimplification, useful personalist, and profoundly illiberal in
as an informal modeling device, as far as rhetoric, disposition, and creed.
it goes. In the real world—that is, for Some applauded this transformation,
most states, most of the time—survival but most foreign policy experts, practi-
is not actually at stake when they are tioners, and professionals are breathing
deciding which among various possible a sigh of relief that a deeply regrettable,
foreign policies to adopt. And countries and in many ways embarrassing, inter-
rarely retreat into a defensive crouch, lude has passed. (It is exceedingly
unwilling to trust any others, paralyzed unlikely that any future president will
exchange “beautiful letters” with and
JONATHAN KIRSHNER is Professor of Political express their “love” for the North Korean
Science and International Studies at Boston leader Kim Jong Un.) But such palpable
College and the author of the forthcoming book
An Unwritten Future: Realism and Uncertainty in relief must be tempered by a dispiriting
World Politics. truth, rooted in that notion of anarchy:
Gone But Not Forgotten
March/April 2021 19
Jonathan Kirshner
the world cannot unsee the Trump nouncements little more than shallow,
presidency. (Nor, for that matter, can it opportunistic posturing? Ultimately,
unsee the way members of the U.S. these are questions of trust and confi-
Congress behaved in the final weeks of dence that require judgment calls. And
the Trump administration, voting for better or worse, it is easier to partner
opportunistically to overturn an elec- with a country whose underlying foreign
tion and helping incite violence at the policy orientation is rooted in purposes
Capitol.) From this point forward, that are reasonably consistent over time.
countries around the globe will have to For U.S. partners in Asia, Europe, and
calculate their interests and expecta- the Middle East, however, Washington’s
tions with the understanding that the priorities on the world stage must now
Trump administration is the sort of be interrogated, and any conclusions
thing that the U.S. political system can reached must be held with qualifications
plausibly produce. rather than confidence. And there is
Such reassessments will not be to the nothing that President Joe Biden and
United States’ advantage. For 75 years, his team of immaculate professionals can
the general presumption that the United do to stop that. From now on, all
States was committed to the relation- countries, everywhere, must hedge their
ships and institutions it forged and the bets about the United States—some-
norms it articulated shaped the world in thing that will unnerve allies more than
ways that privileged U.S. interests. If it adversaries. Whatever promises are
is increasingly perceived to be feckless made and best behaviors followed over
and self-serving, the United States will the next few years, a resurgence of
find the world a more hazardous and knuckle-dragging America firstism will
less welcoming place. loom menacingly in the shadows. That
possibility will inevitably shape other
POWER AND PURPOSE states’ conclusions about their relations
One country tries to anticipate the with the United States, even as nearly
foreign policy behavior of another by every world leader rushes to shake the
making assessments about two factors: hand of the new U.S. president.
power and purpose. Measuring the Thus, even with the election of
former seems straightforward, although Biden—a traditional, centrist liberal
it is often not. (France seemed to boast a internationalist, cut from the same basic
formidable military in 1939, and the foreign policy cloth of every U.S.
Soviet Union was considered a super- president (save one) across nine dec-
power a half century later, yet both ades—countries will now have to hedge
countries suddenly and unexpectedly against the prospect of an indifferent,
collapsed under pressure.) Measuring disengaged, and clumsily myopic U.S.
the latter—purpose—requires more foreign policy. After all, anarchy also
guesswork in practice but is even more demands that states see the world as it
important. Is a country a friend or a foe, is, not as they wish it might be. And the
and in either case, for how long? Is a warning signs that the United States is
country’s word its bond, or are its perhaps not the country it once was
commitments ephemeral and its pro- could not be flashing more brightly.
Although the margin of victory in by an oil shock and the Iranian hostage
the 2020 U.S. presidential election was crisis. Those events were enough to have
wide (the two candidates were separated his approval rating plummet into the 20s
by seven million votes, a 4.5 percent and soon send him packing after his
edge in the popular vote, and 74 electoral landslide defeat in 1980.) Rather, Trump
votes), it was not, by any stretch of the characteristically treated a pandemic that
imagination, a renunciation of Trump. killed well more than a quarter of a
In 2016, some argued that Trump’s million of the people under his charge as
election was a fluke. This was always a personal inconvenience, to be managed
whistling past the graveyard, but the case exclusively for perceived political advan-
could be made. After all, the election tage. Even so, 74 million people voted for
hinged on only about 80,000 votes, spread him—nine million more than did in 2016
across three swing states. Even with that, and the most votes ever cast for a U.S.
but for the historically contingent geo- candidate for president, with the exception
graphic quirks of Michigan (the Upper of Biden, who garnered 81 million.
Peninsula) and Florida (the Panhandle), One cannot paint a picture of the
those states would have gone blue. And American polity and the country’s
the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton future foreign policy without including
(who did walk away with the popular the significant possibility of a large role
vote by a large margin), was, for some for Trumpism, with or without Trump
key constituencies, a suspect candidate. himself in the Oval Office. Looking
The 2020 election put to rest the ahead four years, America watchers must
comforting fable that Trump’s election anticipate that the next U.S. presidential
was a fluke. Trump is the United election could turn out quite differently.
States—or at least a very large part of This does not bode well for U.S. inter-
it. Many Americans will choke on that ests and influence in world politics. As
sentiment, but other countries don’t Mark Leonard, the director of the
have the luxury of clinging to some European Council on Foreign Relations,
idealized version of the United States’ observed, “If you know that whatever
national character. Trump presided over you’re doing will at most last until the
dozens of ethical scandals, egregious next election, you look at everything in a
procedural lapses, and startling indiscre- more contingent way.”
tions, most of which would have ended Indeed, the story of the 2016 elec-
the political career of any other national tion wasn’t just about Trump’s victory
political figure of the past half century. over Clinton; from the perspective of
But the trampling of norms barely other countries trying to guess the
registered with most of the American future of U.S. foreign policy, what
public. Nor did the sheer, horrifying happened in that year’s primaries was
incompetence of the administration’s even more informative and chilling. In
handling of the gravest public health the GOP’s contest, a political novice,
crisis in a century chase Trump from reality TV star, boastful businessman of
the political scene in disgrace. (Imagine questionable repute, and indifferent,
what would have happened to Jimmy only occasional member of the party
Carter, a decent man dealt a difficult hand itself managed to steamroll a strong
March/April 2021 21
Jonathan Kirshner
field of established competitors by what he described as “another trade

disparaging the party’s heroes and deal disaster.”) In fact, the agreement
trampling on its long-held core policy became law thanks only to overwhelm-
beliefs about global engagement. ing Republican support in both houses
Because it took place within the Repub- of Congress. Trump withdrew from the
lican Party, this astonishing, unantici- pact on his first day in office.
pated upheaval cannot be attributed to
the possible flaws of Clinton or liberal IT GETS WORSE
overreach in the culture wars, explana- Carrying through to the Biden adminis-
tions subsequently trotted out after the tration, then, is the observation that the
shock of the general election. And a center of political gravity in the United
similar story was seen in the Demo- States has shifted away from the en-
cratic Party’s nomination process. gaged internationalism that character-
Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont— ized the previous 75 years before Trump
another long-shot outsider, an old and toward something closer to isola-
socialist from a tiny state—came very tionism, of which there is a long tradi-
close to wresting the prize from a tion in U.S. history. In assessing the
powerful political machine fully backed future trajectory of U.S. foreign policy,
by the party apparatus. outside observers will have to make
What did Trump and Sanders have assessments about each political party.
in common? Almost nothing—except Even with Trump out of office, the
for their rejection of internationalism. Republican Party will likely decline to
The 2016 campaign revealed that the distance itself from Trumpism, given
bipartisan postwar internationalist how much elected officials live in fear
consensus, cracks in which had been that Trump will turn his large and loyal
visible and growing for decades, had following against those who criticize
been shattered. A telling casualty him. Rhetorically at least, the party will
marking the end of American interna- likely remain nativistic and nationalist
tionalism was the Trans-Pacific Partner- in its attitude toward the rest of the
ship, a far-reaching trade agreement world. The Democratic Party’s foreign
among a dozen Pacific Rim countries, policies, even though they may be less
including the United States. The overtly malevolent, will not offer much
agreement was at the center of the reassurance. Biden can be expected to
Obama administration’s “pivot” to Asia. flood the field with an impressive
Clinton, as secretary of state, had foreign policy team and give every
orchestrated the painstaking negotiations reassuring impression that the United
that produced the treaty and crowed States will behave as a responsible great
that the pact set “the gold standard in power, one that is engaged with the
trade agreements to open free, trans- world, respects rules, and follows
parent, fair trade.” Yet during the norms. But his mandate is limited.
pitched battle for the Democratic nomi- Biden, elected mostly on a platform
nation, she was forced to renounce the of being everything Trump isn’t, has
TPP, which many in her party had been precious little political capital, and he is
wary of. (Sanders led the charge against unlikely to deploy it for the purpose of
fighting for his foreign policy priorities. of its population embracing wild con-
The Democrats, united in their horror spiracy theories. The United States
at the Trump presidency, are divided today looks like Athens in the final years
on much else. Visible fissures run of the Peloponnesian War or France in
through the party, often on generational the 1930s: a once strong democracy that
lines, between the party’s centrist and has become ragged and vulnerable.
left-leaning wings. And its median France, descending into appeasement,
constituent, although neither nativistic would soon well illustrate that a country
nor nationalist, might be described as consumed by domestic social conflict is
globalism-wary and even isolationism- not one that will likely be capable of
curious. The conflicts within the Demo- practicing a productive, predictable, or
cratic Party will be exacerbated by the trustworthy foreign policy.
salience of Biden’s age at the time of his
inauguration (78). Given that Biden NO MORE BLANK CHECKS
himself has repeatedly hinted that his This dystopian scenario may not come
might very well be a one-term, transi- to pass. It might not even be the most
tional presidency, his fellow Democrats likely American future. But the logic of
will quickly begin jockeying for position anarchy requires that all countries must
in the anticipated battle for party leader- at least process the United States’
ship. Thus, predicting U.S. behavior polarization and domestic dysfunction,
will again require looking down the road think through the implications of that
at the likely range of political outcomes scenario in which all bets are off, and
four years into the future. imagine a world in which Washington,
Worse, foreign assessments of the for all its raw power, is less relevant in
United States must consider the possi- world politics. This prospect will invite
bility that it will soon simply be out of major reassessments of U.S. behavior.
the great-power game altogether. Looked Some of the impending revisions
at objectively, the country boasts a will be benign and even beneficial from
colossal economy and commands the a U.S. perspective. On the positive side
world’s most impressive military. But as of the ledger, Middle Eastern countries
the old saying about sports teams goes, may finally begin to imagine life with-
they don’t play the games on paper, and out strong U.S. military commitments
there are reasons to question whether in the region. In 1990, it was under-
Washington has the wherewithal to behave standable that U.S. allies welcomed
as a purposeful actor on the world stage the U.S.-led war to liberate Kuwait
and pursue its long-term interests. The from Iraqi occupation. Had that
problem is not just that with politics no invasion gone unchecked, Iraq would
longer stopping at the water’s edge, likely have achieved political domina-
U.S. foreign policy could veer unpredict- tion over the vast oil reserves of the
ably from administration to administra- entire Persian Gulf region. Thus, in the
tion. It is that the United States is absence of a peer military competitor
taking on water itself. The country has or a pressing security threat, the United
entered what can only be characterized States was well positioned to repel that
as an age of unreason, with large swaths aggression.
March/April 2021 23
Jonathan Kirshner
But much has changed in the inter- decision, rare and risky in the annals of
vening three decades. The United States diplomacy, to throw in his lot with a
is now the world’s largest producer of foreign political party rather than a
oil and natural gas; China is currently country. By sidestepping President Barack
the biggest export market for Iraq, Obama to work directly with congres-
Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia; and if any- sional Republicans and then by embrac-
thing, given climate change, the United ing Trump with a bear hug, Netanyahu
States should be looking to discourage, hitched his strategic wagon to the star
not subsidize, the burning of fossil fuels. of a U.S. president who did not see past
If one were designing U.S. foreign policy the perceived domestic political advan-
from scratch today, it would be quite tages to be gained from his Middle East
difficult to justify a U.S. security com- policy. Trump reciprocated by dashing
mitment in the Gulf. The U.S. relation- off another political blank check, recog-
ship with Saudi Arabia, in particular, nizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital,
has always been more a marriage of withholding criticism of any of that
convenience than a deeply rooted friend- country’s transgressions (and thus
ship. That was especially evident in the abandoning the notion that the United
Trump era, which featured the shady States might be an honest broker in
princeling-to-princeling connection peace negotiations with the Palestin-
between the president’s son-in-law, Jared ians), and essentially bribing some
Kushner, and Mohammed bin Salman, countries to normalize their diplomatic
the Saudi crown prince. But personal relations with Israel—all without receiv-
ties are the most fleeting. They account ing anything in return from the perspec-
for the Trump administration’s near tive of U.S. national interests. It remains
silence over the assassination of the to be seen whether bilateral relations
Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi between Israel and the United States
(allegedly ordered by the crown prince will emerge unscathed now that U.S.
himself) and its tacit approval of the diplomacy in the Middle East has
humanitarian nightmare that is the Saudi passed from the hands of Trump’s small
war in Yemen. In contrast, as a candi- coterie of Middle East advisers.
date, Biden said that should he be elected,
Saudi Arabia would no longer enjoy a AFTER AMERICA
“dangerous blank check.” It is always If the post-Trump perceptions of the
possible that campaign-trail rhetoric will United States in the Middle East may
yield to the realities of power politics, be good news for U.S. power and
but in assessing their own national interests, the same cannot be said for
security in the coming years, Saudi Arabia the rethinking that will take place in the
and its fellow Gulf kingdoms have no rest of the world. And in contrast to in
choice but to at least anticipate the the Gulf region and the Middle East
withdrawal of U.S. power from the region. more generally, in Europe and Asia, the
Israel must confront similar calcula- United States has enormous geostrate-
tions. During the Obama administra- gic, political, and economic interests—
tion and after, Israeli Prime Minister as it has for a century. What happens in
Benjamin Netanyahu made the radical Europe and East Asia, which are among
the world’s vital centers of economic Hungary, Poland, and Turkey is endan-
activity, matters for the United States. gering the notion of the alliance as a
Reduced engagement with and commit- like-minded security community. (It was
ment to partners in these regions will this notion that caused Spain to join the
create opportunities for others—actors alliance in 1982, after it transitioned to
who will be indifferent or even hostile democracy.) A NATO that contains
to what the United States wants in the authoritarian members will rot from
world. These challenges defy easy within. In the United States, meanwhile,
reassurance. Biden will surely (and wisely) growing skepticism of internationalism
reaffirm the U.S. commitment to NATO. may mean that the country no longer
It is unlikely that the alliance would has any interest in pursuing milieu goals.
have survived a second Trump adminis- Washington might simply pick up its
tration, given Trump’s ambivalence about marbles and go home. Europe would be
democratic allies in general and partici- compelled to test the theory that the
pation in what he oddly perceived to be alliance is a force for comity and stabil-
a dues-paying organization in particular. ity. But the implications of American
Will the alliance survive much past abandonment would go far beyond the
2025? There are reasons to be doubtful. continent. It could also presage a
In 1993, the realist international post-American world that is darker, more
relations scholar Kenneth Waltz argued authoritarian, and less able to address
that with the Soviet Union gone, NATO collective challenges.
had outlived its usefulness, and he There is no region of the world where
predicted, “NATO’s days are not numbered, revised assessments about the United
but its years are.” The alliance turned States will be more consequential than
out to have decades of life left, of course. Asia. Many observers fret over the
What Waltz missed was that NATO has prospect of a ruinous shooting war
always been more than a narrow mili- between China and the United States,
tary alliance; it is also a broader security as Beijing looks to assert what it consid-
community of like-minded states and a ers to be its rightful place as the domi-
stabilizing force on a historically war- nant power in the region. Emerging
prone continent. As such, the alliance great powers with revisionist aspirations
has advanced what another realist scholar, are nothing new and are commonly
Arnold Wolfers, called “milieu goals”— destabilizing, as they invariably step on
measures designed to make the interna- the toes of the contented guardians of
tional environment more benign. NATO the status quo. That said, the future of
has managed to achieve these goals at Asia will be determined more by political
very little cost, considering that it has calculations than military confronta-
always been unlikely that the United tions. Regional actors, once again, will
States would cut its overall spending on have to make guesses about the future
defense and thus save money if it international disposition and reliability
withdrew from NATO. of the United States.
But now, NATO faces existential The main geopolitical assessment that
threats on both sides of the Atlantic. In regional powers will have to make is
Europe, authoritarian backsliding in not whether the United States would win
March/April 2021 25
Jonathan Kirshner
a war against China; it is whether the China is now South Korea’s largest export
United States will stay involved. Will market, and South Korea sells almost
Washington retain its alliance commit- twice as much to that country as it does to
ments? Will it demonstrate enough the United States. Should Seoul assess
political engagement and recognizable that a future U.S. president might cut the
military capacity to give regional powers cord of the U.S. alliance with South
the confidence to balance against China? Korea, South Korea might increasingly
If countries figure that the United fall into the orbit of China’s influence.
States is out, or indifferent, then many
will decide they have little choice but to SCARRED FOR LIFE
bandwagon with China, given its over- The future of U.S. influence—in Eu-
whelming power. If it becomes apparent rope, Asia, and everywhere else—de-
that China’s power and influence will pends a great deal on what the United
be left unchecked, countries in the region States says it will do and whether it
will increasingly accede to more of follows through with consistent actions.
China’s demands in bilateral disputes and Biden is capable of following through.
show greater deference for its prefer- But in an anarchic world, U.S. influence
ences more generally. will depend at least as much on some-
The ground in Asia is clearly shifting. thing else: how other states measure
Washington renounced its own grand long-term American purpose. By
trade agreement, the TPP, and a TPP that producing a Trump presidency and
includes the United States is not likely calling attention to the underlying
coming back. As international trade domestic dysfunctions that allowed a
agreements will almost certainly remain previously inconceivable development to
a lightning rod and perhaps even a litmus occur, the United States is now looked at
test for powerful constituencies in both far differently than it once was. These
political parties, trying to breathe life back new and consequential perceptions will
into the TPP by joining its successor pact endure, and for some time.
is unlikely to be successful—nor deemed A second Trump administration
worth the anticipated political blowback. would have done irretrievable damage
China, in contrast, has picked up that to the United States as an actor in
dropped ball and recently signed on to world politics. But even with Trump’s
the Regional Comprehensive Economic defeat, the rest of the world cannot
Partnership. Less ambitious than the ignore the country’s deep and disfigur-
TPP, that agreement nevertheless boasts ing scars. They will not soon heal.∂
countries that intended to join the
U.S.-led pact: Australia, Japan, Malaysia,
Vietnam, and South Korea, among others.
And international politics and economics
are not easily disentangled. Trump
commonly disparaged military allies as
freeloaders and viewed American troops
stationed abroad, including in South
Korea, as a for-profit, mercenary force.
their perception of their proper place and
A Superpower,
DECLINE AND FALL
role in the world. Even as they have met

the challenges of Nazism and Japanese
Like It or Not imperialism, Soviet communism, and
radical Islamist terrorism, they have
never regarded this global activism as
Why Americans Must normal. Even in the era of the Internet,
Accept Their Global Role long-range missiles, and an interdepen-
dent global economy, many Americans
Robert Kagan retain the psychology of a people living
apart on a vast continent, untouched by
the world’s turmoil. Americans have
A
ll great powers have a deeply never been isolationists. In times of
ingrained self-perception emergency, they can be persuaded to
shaped by historical experience, support extraordinary exertions in far-off
geography, culture, beliefs, and myths. places. But they regard these as excep-
Many Chinese today yearn to recover tional responses to exceptional circum-
the greatness of a time when they ruled stances. They do not see themselves as
unchallenged at the pinnacle of their the primary defender of a certain kind of
civilization, before “the century of humili- world order; they have never embraced
ation.” Russians are nostalgic for Soviet that “indispensable” role.
days, when they were the other super- As a result, Americans have often
power and ruled from Poland to Vladivo- played it poorly. Their continental view
stok. Henry Kissinger once observed that of the world has produced a century of
Iranian leaders had to choose whether wild oscillations—indifference followed
they wanted to be “a nation or a cause,” by panic, mobilization and intervention
but great powers and aspiring great followed by retreat and retrenchment.
powers often see themselves as both. That Americans refer to the relatively
Their self-perception shapes their low-cost military involvements in Afghan-
definition of the national interest, of what istan and Iraq as “forever wars” is just the
constitutes genuine security and the latest example of their intolerance for the
actions and resources necessary to achieve messy and unending business of preserv-
it. Often, it is these self-perceptions that ing a general peace and acting to forestall
drive nations, empires, and city-states threats. In both cases, Americans had one
forward. And sometimes to their ruin. foot out the door the moment they
Much of the drama of the past century entered, which hampered their ability to
resulted from great powers whose aspira- gain control of difficult situations.
tions exceeded their capacity. This on-again, off-again approach has
Americans have the opposite problem. confused and misled allies and adversar-
Their capacity for global power exceeds ies, often to the point of spurring
conflicts that could have been avoided by
ROBERT KAGAN is Stephen and Barbara a clear and steady application of Ameri-
Friedman Senior Fellow at the Brookings
Institution and the author of The Jungle Grows can power and influence in the service of
Back: America and Our Imperiled World. a peaceful, stable, and liberal world
March/April 2021 29
Robert Kagan
order. The twentieth century was littered golden dwellings.” For the moment, Bryce
with the carcasses of foreign leaders and wrote, “she sails upon a summer sea.”
governments that misjudged the United But then the world shifted, and
States, from Germany (twice) and Americans suddenly found themselves at
Japan to the Soviet Union to Serbia to the center of it. The old order upheld by
Iraq. If the twenty-first century is not to the United Kingdom and made possible
follow the same pattern—most danger- by a tenuous peace in Europe collapsed
ously, in the competition with China— with the arrival of new powers. The rise
then Americans will need to stop look- of Germany destroyed the precarious
ing for the exits and accept the role that equilibrium in Europe, and the Europe-
fate and their own power have thrust ans proved unable to restore it. The
upon them. Perhaps after four years of concurrent rise of Japan and the United
President Donald Trump, Americans are States put an end to more than a century
ready for some straight talk. of British naval hegemony. A global
geopolitics replaced what had been a
OF TWO MINDS European-dominated order, and in this
Americans’ preference for a limited very different configuration of power, the
international role is a product of their United States was thrust into a new
history and experience and of the myths position. Only it could be both a Pacific
they tell themselves. Other great powers and an Atlantic power. Only it, with weak
aspire to recapture past glories. Ameri- neighbors to the north and south and vast
cans have always yearned to recapture oceans to the east and west, could send
what they imagine as the innocence and the bulk of its forces to fight in distant
limited ambition of their nation’s youth. theaters for prolonged periods while its
For the first decades of the new republic’s homeland remained unthreatened. Only
existence, Americans struggled merely to it could afford to finance not only its own
survive as a weak republic in a world of war efforts but also those of its allies,
superpower monarchies. They spent the mustering the industrial capacity to
nineteenth century in selfishness and produce ships, planes, tanks, and other
self-absorption, conquering the continent materiel to arm itself while also serving
and struggling over slavery. By the early as the arsenal for everyone else. Only it
twentieth century, the United States had could do all of this without bankrupting
become the richest and potentially most itself but instead growing richer and
powerful country in the world, but one more dominant with each major war.
without commitments or responsibilities. The United States, the British statesman
It rose under the canopy of a benevolent Arthur Balfour observed, had become
world order it had no part in upholding. the “pivot” on which the rest of the
“Safe from attack, safe even from men- world turned or, in President Theodore
ace,” the British historian James Bryce Roosevelt’s words, “the balance of power
wrote of the United States in 1888, “she of the whole world.”
hears from afar the warring cries of The world had never known such a
European races and faiths, as the gods of power—there was not the language to
Epicurus listened to the murmurs of the describe it or a theory to explain it. It
unhappy earth spread out beneath their was sui generis. The emergence of this
unusual great power led to confusion and Europe would again divide into “hostile
misjudgment. Nations that had spent camps,” the world would again descend
centuries calculating the power relation- into “utter blackness,” and the United
ships in their own regions were slow to States would again be dragged into war.
appreciate the impact of this distant deus The United States had an interest in a
ex machina, which, after long periods of peaceful and predominantly liberal
indifference and aloofness, could sud- Europe, a peaceful Asia, and open and
denly swoop in and transform the safe oceans on which Americans and
balance of power. Americans, too, had a their goods could travel safely. But such
hard time adjusting. The wealth and a world could not be built except around
relative invulnerability that made them American power. Thus the United
uniquely capable of fighting major wars States had an interest in world order.
and enforcing peace in Europe, Asia, Such arguments met powerful
and the Middle East simultaneously also opposition. The Republican senator
made them question the necessity, Henry Cabot Lodge and other critics
desirability, and even morality of doing condemned Wilson’s league as both
so. With the United States fundamen- unnecessary and a betrayal of the
tally secure and self-sufficient, why did founders’ vision. For the United States
it need to get involved in conflicts to concern itself with world order was
thousands of miles from its shores? And to violate the basic principles that made
what right did it have? it an exceptional, peace-loving nation in
The case for a policy aimed at creating a world at war. Two decades later, as
and preserving a liberal world order was Americans debated whether to enter
first made by Theodore Roosevelt and another world war, another Republican
Woodrow Wilson during World War I. senator, Robert Taft, ridiculed the idea
With the United Kingdom and the other that the United States, which was
European powers no longer able to perfectly safe from attack, should “range
preserve order, they argued, and as the over the world, like a knight-errant,
war demonstrated, it had fallen to the protecting democracy and ideals of
United States to create and defend a good faith, and tilting, like Don Qui-
new liberal world order. This was the xote, against the windmills of Fascism.”
purpose of the “World League for the President Franklin Roosevelt argued
Peace of Righteousness,” proposed by that even if the United States was not
Roosevelt at the beginning of the war, directly threatened by Nazi Germany or
and of the League of Nations, which imperial Japan, a world in which those
Wilson eventually championed after it: powerful dictatorships dominated their
to create a new peaceful order with regions would be a “shabby and danger-
American power at its center. Wilson ous place to live in.” It was only a
believed it was the only feasible alterna- matter of time before the dictatorships
tive to a resumption of the conflict and would gather themselves for a final
chaos that had devastated Europe. If assault on the remaining citadel of
Americans instead turned back to their democracy, Roosevelt believed, but
“narrow, selfish, provincial purposes,” he even before that moment came, the
warned, the peace would collapse, United States might become “a lone
March/April 2021 31
Robert Kagan
island” of democracy in a world of an explosion of global prosperity and a

dictators, and democracy itself might historically unprecedented spread of
simply perish. But the opponents of democratic government.
American intervention in World War II That was the conscious aim of
worried as much about the conse- Roosevelt during World War II and of
quences of winning as about the costs of his successors in the Truman adminis-
intervening. They did not want their tration. They believed that a world
country to subordinate itself to the order based on liberal political and
interests of European empires, but economic principles was the only
neither did they want it to replace those antidote to the anarchy of the 1930s.
empires as the dominant world power. For such an order to exist, the United
Citing Secretary of State John Quincy States could not “sit in the parlor with a
Adams, they warned that in becoming shotgun, waiting,” argued Dean Ache-
the “dictatress of the world,” the United son, President Harry Truman’s secre-
States would lose its soul. tary of state. It had to be out in the
The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor world actively shaping it, deterring
cut short the debate but left it unsettled. some powers and bolstering others. It
Roosevelt fought the war with his eye on had to create “situations of strength” at
the postwar order he hoped to create, critical nodes, spreading stability,
but most Americans saw the war as an prosperity, and democracy, especially in
act of self-defense, perfectly consistent the world’s core industrial regions of
with a continental perspective. When it Europe and Asia. The United States
was over, they expected to come home. had to be “the locomotive at the head of
When the United States did end up mankind,” Acheson said, pulling the
dominating the world after World War II, world along with it.
therefore, Americans suffered from a
kind of cognitive dissonance. During AMERICA ADRIFT
the Cold War, they took on unheard-of Yet even as they created this order, few
global responsibilities, deploying troops Americans ever understood world
in distant theaters by the hundreds of order as the goal. For most, it was the
thousands and fighting two wars, in threat of communism that justified
Korea and in Vietnam, that were 15 these extraordinary exertions, that
times as costly in terms of combat justified the establishment of NATO and
deaths as the wars in Afghanistan and the defense of Japan, Korea, and,
Iraq would be. They promoted an ultimately, Vietnam. Resisting commu-
international free-trade regime that nism became synonymous with the
sometimes enriched others more than national interest, for communism was
themselves. They intervened economi- perceived as a threat to the American
cally, politically, diplomatically, and way of life. When Americans balked at
militarily in every corner of the world. supporting Greece and Turkey in 1947,
And whether or not they were conscious the Republican senator Arthur Vanden-
of it, they did create a liberal world berg told Truman administration
order, a relatively peaceful international officials to “scare hell out of the Ameri-
environment that in turn made possible can people,” and Acheson saw the
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Robert Kagan
expediency of making things, as he to what Bush had called “a Europe

admitted in his memoirs, “clearer than whole and free.” Clinton, too, was
truth.” With communism as the sole attacked by realists—for engaging in
enemy, everything mattered. Every act “international social work.”
was as an act of defense. Then came President George W.
When the Cold War ended, there- Bush. The second war with Iraq was
fore, the disjunction between Ameri- also aimed primarily at preserving
cans’ actual role and Americans’ self- world order—to rid the Middle East
perception became untenable. Without and the Persian Gulf of a serial aggres-
the global threat of communism, Ameri- sor who fancied himself the new
cans wondered what the purpose of their Saladin. But the 9/11 attacks had
foreign policy should be. What was the caused world-order objectives to again
point of having a globe-girdling security become confused with continental
system, a hegemonic navy, far-flung defense, even for the war’s advocates.
alliances with dozens of nations, and an When the intelligence on Saddam’s
international free-trade regime? weapons programs proved mistaken,
The rebellion began immediately. many Americans felt that they had
When the Iraqi dictator Saddam been lied to about the direct threat
Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990, Iraq posed to the United States.
President George H. W. Bush initially President Barack Obama rode to power
made the case for driving him out on in part on the angry disillusionment
world-order grounds. “A world in that still shapes American attitudes
which brutality and lawlessness are today. Ironically, in accepting the
allowed to go unchecked isn’t the kind Nobel Peace Prize, Obama observed
of world we’re going to want to live in,” that American willingness to “under-
Bush said in a televised address from write global security” had brought
the Oval Office, quoting the general stability to the postwar world and
who was commanding the U.S. marines that this was in the United States’
fighting Saddam’s forces. But when “enlightened self-interest.” Yet it
realists and conservatives criticized quickly became clear that Americans
Bush’s vision of a “new world order” as were more interested in nation build-
overly ambitious and idealistic, the ing at home. In the end, Obama’s
administration fell back on the kind of realism, like Taft’s, consisted of accept-
narrow, continental rationale Ameri- ing “the world as it is,” not as advocates
cans could supposedly better under- of world order might wish it to be.
stand—“jobs, jobs, jobs,” was how In 1990, the former U.S. ambassador
Secretary of State James Baker ex- to the UN Jeane Kirkpatrick argued that
plained what the Gulf War was about. the United States should return to
When President Bill Clinton inter- being a “normal” nation with normal
vened twice in the Balkans and then interests, give up the “dubious benefits
expanded NATO, it was in defense of of superpower status,” end the “unnatu-
world order, both to stamp out ethnic ral focus” on foreign policy, and pursue
cleansing in Europe and to prove the its national interests as “conventionally
United States’ continuing commitment conceived.” That meant protecting its
citizens, its territory, its wealth, and its for “restraint” still recite the founders’
access to “necessary” goods. It did not wisdom and declaim its betrayal as acts
mean preserving the balance of power of hubris, messianism, and imperialism.
in Europe or Asia, promoting democ- Many internationalists still believe that
racy, or taking responsibility for prob- what they regard as the unwarranted
lems in the world that did not touch exercise of American power is the
Americans directly. This is the conti- greatest obstacle to a better and more
nental perspective that still reigns just world. The mixed results of the wars
today. It does not deny that the United in Afghanistan and Iraq are not merely
States has interests, but it proposes that errors of judgment and execution but
they are merely the interests that all black marks on the American soul.
nations have. Americans still yearn to escape to a
The problem is that the United more innocent and simpler past. To a
States has not been a normal nation for degree they probably don’t recognize,
over a century, nor has it had normal they yearn to have less power. Realists
interests. Its unique power gives it a have long understood that as long as
unique role. Bangladeshis and Bolivians the United States is so powerful, it
also have an interest in global stability, will be hard to avoid what the political
after all, and they might suffer if scientists Robert Tucker and David
another Germany came to dominate Hendrickson once called “the imperial
Europe or if another Japan came to temptation.” That is one reason why
dominate Asia. But no one would realists have always insisted that
suggest that it was in their national American power is in decline or
interest to prevent that from happen- simply not up to the task. The colum-
ing, because they lack the capacity to do nist Walter Lippmann and the diplo-
so, just as the United States lacked the mat George Kennan made that argu-
capacity in 1798, when it was most ment in the late 1940s, as did
threatened by the prospect of a Euro- Kissinger in the late 1960s and the
pean hegemon. World order became the historian Paul Kennedy in the 1980s,
United States’ concern when the old and many realists still make it today.
world order collapsed in the early Realists treat every unsuccessful war,
twentieth century and the country from Vietnam to Iraq, as if it were the
became the only power capable of equivalent of the Sicilian expedition,
establishing a new one in which its the final act of folly that led to Ath-
interests could be protected. ens’s defeat in the war against Sparta
That is still the case today, and yet, in the fifth century BC. An entire
even more than in Kirkpatrick’s time, generation of Americans has grown up
continentalism remains the dominant believing that the lack of clear-cut
perspective. It informs the language victories in Afghanistan and Iraq
Americans use to talk about foreign proves that their country can no
policy and the theoretical paradigms by longer accomplish anything with
which they understand such concepts as power. The rise of China, the United
national interest and security. It also States’ declining share of the global
remains suffused with moralism. Calls economy, the advance of new military
March/April 2021 35
Robert Kagan
technologies, and a general diffusion ton’s weakness, use its own growing
of power around the world—all have power to try to alter the East Asian
signaled the twilight, once again, of strategic situation, it might have to
the American order. cope not only with the United States
Yet if the United States were as but also with a global coalition of
weak as so many people claim, it advanced industrial nations, much as
wouldn’t have to practice restraint. It is the Soviets discovered.
precisely because the country is still The Trump years were a stress test
capable of pursuing a world-order for the American world order, and the
strategy that critics need to explain order, remarkably, passed. Confronted
why it should not. The fact is that the by the nightmare of a rogue super-
basic configuration of international power tearing up trade and other
power has not changed as much as agreements, U.S. allies appeased and
many imagine. The earth is still round; cajoled, bringing offerings to the angry
the United States still sits on its vast, volcano and waiting hopefully for
isolated continent, surrounded by better times. Adversaries also trod
oceans and weaker powers; the other carefully. When Trump ordered the
great powers still live in regions killing of the Iranian commander
crowded with other great powers; and Qasem Soleimani, it was reasonable to
when one power in those regions grows expect Iran to retaliate, and it may still,
too strong for the others to balance but not with Trump as president. The
against, the would-be victims still look Chinese suffered through a long tariff
to the distant United States for help. war that hurt them more than it hurt
Although Russia possesses a huge the United States, but they tried to
nuclear arsenal, it is even more an avoid a complete breakdown of the
“Upper Volta with rockets” today than economic relationship on which they
when that wisecrack was coined, in the depend. Obama worried that providing
early Cold War. The Soviets at least offensive weapons to Ukraine could
controlled half of Europe. China has lead to war with Russia, but when the
taken the place of Japan, stronger in Trump administration went ahead with
terms of wealth and population but the weapons deliveries, Moscow
with unproven military capabilities and acquiesced with barely a murmur.
a much less favorable strategic posi- Many of Trump’s policies were erratic
tion. When imperial Japan expanded in and ill conceived, but they did show
the 1930s, it faced no formidable how much excess, unused power the
regional competitors, and the Western United States has, if a president
powers were preoccupied with the chooses to deploy it. In the Obama
German threat. Today, Asia is crowded years, officials measured 50 times
with other great powers, including before deciding not to cut, ever fearful
three whose militaries are among the that other powers would escalate a
top ten in the world—India, Japan, and confrontation. In the Trump years, it
South Korea—all of which are either was other countries that worried about
allies or partners of the United States. where a confrontation with the United
Should Beijing, believing in Washing- States might lead.
GREAT POWER, GREAT warned, against a provoked America and

RESPONSIBILITY its allies, they might well meet the same
The United States is “lazily playing fate as other U.S. rivals.
with a fraction of her immeasurable The question is not whether the
strength”—so the British historian United States is still capable of prevailing
Arnold Toynbee commented somewhat in a global confrontation, either hot or
ruefully in the early 1930s. At the time, cold, with China or any other revisionist
U.S. defense spending was between two power. It is. The real question is whether
and three percent of GDP. Today, it is a the worst kinds of hostilities can be
little over three percent. In the 1950s, avoided, whether China and other
during the Eisenhower administra- powers can be encouraged to pursue their
tion—often seen as a time of admirable aims peacefully, to confine the global
restraint in U.S. foreign policy—the competition to the economic and political
United States had almost one million realms and thus spare themselves and the
troops deployed overseas, out of a total world from the horrors of the next great
American population of 170 million. war or even the still frightening confron-
Today, in an era when the United tations of another cold war.
States is said to be dangerously overex- The United States cannot avoid such
tended, there are roughly 200,000 U.S. crises by continuing to adhere to a
troops deployed overseas, out of a nineteenth-century view of its national
population of 330 million. Setting aside interest. Doing that would produce what
whether this constitutes “lazily playing it produced in the past: periods of
with a fraction” of American strength, it indifference and retrenchment followed
is important to recognize that the by panic, fear, and sudden mobilization.
United States is now in peace mode. Already, Americans are torn between
Were Americans to shift to a war these two impulses. On the one hand,
footing, or even a Cold War–type China now occupies that place in the
footing, in response to some Chinese American mind that Germany and the
action—for instance, an attack on Soviet Union once held: an ideological
Taiwan—the United States would look opponent that has the ability to strike at
like a very different animal. American society directly and that has
At the height of the late Cold War, power and ambitions that threaten the
under President Ronald Reagan, the United States’ position in a key region
United States spent six percent of GDP on and perhaps everywhere else, too. On
defense, and its arms industry produced the other hand, many Americans believe
weapons in such quantity and of such that the United States is in decline and
quality that the Soviets simply could not that China will inevitably come to domi-
keep up. The Chinese could find them- nate Asia. Indeed, the self-perceptions
selves in a similar predicament. They of the Americans and the Chinese are
might “run wild for the first six months perfectly symmetrical. The Chinese
or a year,” as Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto, think that the United States’ role in
the commander of the Japanese fleet their region for the past 75 years has
during World War II, predicted about his been unnatural and is therefore tran-
own forces. But in the long run, as he also sient, and so do the Americans. The
March/April 2021 37
Robert Kagan
Chinese believe that the United States is capable of upholding such an order is
in decline, and so do many Americans. the United States. This is not an
The danger is that as Beijing ramps up expression of hubris but a reality rooted
efforts to fulfill what it has taken to in international circumstances. And it is
calling “the Chinese dream,” Americans certainly a mixed blessing. In trying to
will start to panic. It is in times like this preserve this order, the United States
that miscalculations are made. has wielded and will wield power, some-
Perhaps the Chinese, careful stu- times unwisely and ineffectively, with
dents of history that they are, will not unpredictable costs and morally am-
make the mistake that others have made biguous consequences. That is what
in misjudging the United States. wielding power means. Americans have
Whether Americans have learned the naturally sought to escape this burden.
lessons of their own history, however, They have sought to divest themselves
remains to be seen. A century-long of responsibility, hiding sometimes
pattern of oscillation will be difficult to behind dreamy internationalism,
change. It will be especially so when sometimes behind a determined resig-
foreign policy experts of all stripes nation to accept the world “as it is,” and
regard support for a liberal world order always with the view that absent a clear
as impossible and immoral. Among and present danger, they can hang back
other problems, their prescriptions in their imaginary fortress.
suffer from an unwarranted optimism The time has come to tell Americans
about the likely alternatives to a U.S.- that there is no escape from global
led order. Realists, liberal international- responsibility, that they have to think
ists, conservative nationalists, and beyond the protection of the homeland.
progressives all seem to imagine that They need to understand that the
without Washington playing the role it purpose of NATO and other alliances is to
has played these past 75 years, the world defend not against direct threats to U.S.
will be just fine, and U.S. interests will interests but against a breakdown of the
be just as well protected. But neither order that best serves those interests.
recent history nor present circum- They need to be told honestly that the
stances justify such idealism. The task of maintaining a world order is
alternative to the American world order unending and fraught with costs but
is not a Swedish world order. It will not preferable to the alternative. A failure to
be a world of law and international be square with the American people has
institutions or the triumph of Enlight- led the country to its current predica-
enment ideals or the end of history. It ment, with a confused and angry public
will be a world of power vacuums, convinced that its leaders are betraying
chaos, conflict, and miscalculation—a American interests for their own nefari-
shabby place indeed. ous, “globalist” purposes. The antidote to
The messy truth is that in the real this is not scaring the hell out of them
world, the only hope for preserving about China and other threats but trying
liberalism at home and abroad is the to explain, again, why the world order
maintenance of a world order conducive they created still matters. This is a job for
to liberalism, and the only power Joe Biden and his new administration.∂
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The Fractured
DECLINE AND FALL
tial cables in secure facilities in Washing-

ton and conduct public surveys in conflict-
Power prone countries. They interview local
stakeholders on the ground and consult
experts in capitals around the world.
How to Overcome They make every effort to understand
Tribalism fractured societies in granular detail, both
to predict potential conflicts and to
Reuben E. Brigety II propose interventions to stop them.
For most of recent history, Americans
have deployed such frameworks else-
W
hen the United States looks where, reserving concerns about instabil-
abroad to assess the risk of ity or conflict for countries other than
conflict, it relies on a host of their own. When applied to the United
tools to understand other countries’ social States in 2021, however, the U.S. govern-
and political divisions and how likely ment’s own tools paint a damning picture
they are to result in unrest or violence. of American politics. The contentious
These techniques reflect decades of 2020 presidential campaign laid bare deep
research, in both government and aca- divisions in American society, exhibiting
demia, into the root causes of civil disor- precisely the kind of tribal politics—when
der and state failure. The idea is that by strict loyalty to a foundational identity
better understanding those causes, (such as race, religion, clan, or region) is
policymakers can prevent conflict before the organizing principle of political life
it breaks out or, failing that, help states within a country—that sets off alarm bells
recover quickly once it does. when seen abroad. The campaign looked
One such tool is the U.S. Agency for less like a contest of ideas and more like a
International Development’s Conflict battle between tribes, with voters racing
Assessment Framework, which is de- to their partisan corners based on iden-
signed to illuminate the underlying tity, not concerns about policy.
dynamics of countries in various stages of These divisions, moreover, are
civil strife. Analysts use the CAF to coupled with a growing belief that U.S.
understand local grievances and divisions political and social institutions are no
in a particular country, the resilience of longer functioning as intended. Accord-
the country’s political system, and events ing to a 2019 report by the Pew Research
that could trigger violence. The process Center, over 60 percent of Americans
can require dozens of personnel and take believe that declining levels of trust,
months to complete. Diplomats and both interpersonal and in government,
are making it difficult to solve the
REUBEN E. BRIGETY II is Vice Chancellor country’s problems. Tools such as the
and President of the University of the South and CAF also note the importance of the
Adjunct Senior Fellow for African Peace and longer-term context to understanding
Security Issues at the Council on Foreign
Relations. From 2013 to 2015, he served as U.S. the likelihood of violence. And the
Ambassador to the African Union. context in the United States is troubling.
The Fractured Power
March/April 2021 41
The FBI has reported that in 2019, the West and “the rest.” Contemporary U.S.
United States saw more racially and politics, however, resists this simplistic
religiously motivated hate crimes—in- dichotomy. Tools such as the CAF demon-
cluding 51 murders—than it had at any strate that tribalism, and its potential to
point in the previous two decades. ignite conflict, is a general force that
Sales of firearms reached new highs in connects one’s identity to one’s politics—
2020, with African Americans, worried regardless of location or political system.
about becoming the targets of racial The more tribal a society is, the
violence, purchasing guns in record more closely membership in the tribe is
numbers. The killing of George Floyd policed and the less one is permitted to
in May 2020, and the summer of cooperate with outsiders. Such forces
reckoning that followed, brought racial did not disappear with the advent of the
tensions in the United States to their modern nation-state, and they aren’t
highest levels in a generation. limited by nationality. Modern Israeli
Hardened ethnic and ideological Jews, Iraqi Shiites, and American
identities affixed to political parties. Southern Baptists can exhibit the same
Political leaders exacerbating sectarian tribal loyalties as ancient West African
divisions. Public institutions that are Ashantis, South American Incas, or
distrusted by more and more citizens for imperial Persians. The central benchmark
their failure to deliver policy solutions. is whether citizens of diverse back-
The capitol stormed by rioters for the grounds can use reason and argument to
first time in over 200 years. A heavily transcend foundational identities and
armed society in which a defeated head work together toward a common good.
of government claims that the election Although there have been other
was illegitimate yet continues to enjoy moments in U.S. history when the
the loyalty of nearly half the electorate. country’s governance failed to meet that
If American diplomats and aid special- ideal—most notably during the Civil
ists found this fact pattern elsewhere, War—the current era ranks high among
they would call for diplomatic interven- them, especially by the standards the
tion. But just as experiences from U.S. government uses to evaluate the
elsewhere offer a reason to worry about risk of conflict abroad. Today, the tribes
American tribalism, they also provide are the country’s two major political
valuable instructions for how to overcome parties, bolstered by the demographic
it. If they learn the right lessons from subgroups that compose their most
their counterparts abroad, U.S. citizens, loyal and predictable constituencies.
civic groups, and leaders can bridge the Over the past two decades, these groups
country’s tribal divisions and begin to have grown further and further apart—
revive American democracy. each side accusing the other of stirring
up historical grievances among its core
AMERICAN TRIBALISM supporters. According to two 2020
Tribalism, and the conflict that it can studies by the Pew Research Center,
produce, is often understood through roughly eight out of ten supporters of
facile comparisons between primitive either Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee,
villages and civilized cities or between the or President Donald Trump, the Republi-
The Fractured Power
can nominee, said that they disagreed politics even as a global pandemic of
with the other side over “core American biblical proportions ravages the country.
values,” and roughly nine out of ten— This is not politics as usual. It is
again in both camps—said they worried worse than the gridlock and culture
that a victory by the other side would lead wars that began in the 1990s, which the
to “lasting harm” to the United States. Clinton White House or politically
The two parties have also grown savvy moderate Republicans could
apart demographically. Although sometimes overcome. Rather, the
religion and race have long been two of current state of affairs represents a real
the most salient predictors of a person’s departure from both past practice and
party affiliation, they now lock people civic ideals. The United States’ once
into political viewpoints in dangerous resilient institutions are now largely
ways. Even though Trump managed to incapable of keeping tribal influences in
improve his performance among minori- check. At the federal level, serious
ties in 2020, people who identify as problems increasingly defy solution, not
African American, Asian American, or for a lack of feasible proposals but
Latino overwhelmingly vote Democratic. because politicians are determined to
White Americans—particularly those inflict defeat on their opponents in the
who identify as evangelical Protestants— name of tribal solidarity: Trump’s
overwhelmingly vote Republican. impeachment over allegations of abuse
Indeed, a majority of white Americans of power and obstruction of Congress,
have voted for the Republican candidate for instance, was decided almost en-
in every presidential election in the last tirely along party lines, notwithstanding
50 years. Few other characteristics seem the facts of the case. The United States
able to shake these dividing lines: educa- has suffered the most COVID-19 deaths
tion, income, region, and gender all pale of any country in the world at least
in comparison when it comes to predict- partly because of partisan differences at
ing a given voter’s party preference. the state and the federal level, not a lack
Unsurprisingly, politicians’ behavior of information about how to defeat the
reflects the growing divide among their virus. Such “chronic capacity deficits,”
constituents. According to one metric to use the CAF’s language, can produce
from the Brookings Institution, from serious grievances that, under the right
1992 to 2013, the ideological divergence on circumstances, might spark conflict.
committee votes between Democratic and These developments have not gone
Republican House members grew by over unnoticed abroad. The United States’
50 percent. In that environment, coopera- allies and partners regret that tribalism
tion across the aisle is nearly out of the has diminished American diplomatic
question. Such profound polarization influence and soft power. Its enemies and
has made it impossible, for example, to rivals view that tribalism as an opportunity
pass comprehensive immigration reform they can exploit. Russia, for example, took
despite a clear need to address the issue. advantage of American society’s racial
Likewise, a fundamental problem such and political fissures during the 2016
as health care, which affects every single and 2020 presidential campaigns, when
American, is still embroiled in partisan Russian cyberwarriors flooded social
March/April 2021 43
media platforms with disinformation Agreement and bring peace to Northern

aimed at Black and Latino voters and Ireland. To be sure, the conditions need
targeted inflammatory racist posts toward to be ripe for leaders to move their
white voters. (As a senior FBI agent told supporters from hostility to comity with
an election security conference in early long-established adversaries, but a
2020, “To put it simply, in this space, willingness to renounce violence and
Russia wants to watch us tear ourselves work across tribal divides matters im-
apart.”) Foreign adversaries determined mensely. It can be the difference between
to undermine U.S. governance from perpetual conflict and durable peace.
within could easily replicate these tech- The United States is neither apartheid
niques. Efforts to stoke tribal hatreds and South Africa nor Northern Ireland during
deepen partisan divisions have succeeded the Troubles. But even though political
before; they could succeed again. parties in the United States do not engage
in open armed conflict, there is still an
AMERICA, HEAL THYSELF acute need for leaders who are prepared
If diagnosing the United States’ currently to cross tribal lines for the good of the
tribal politics relies partly on tools country. To their credit, throughout 2020,
originally developed to assess foreign every living U.S. president (save one) and
countries, such as the CAF, then the many other former elected officials
solution can be found in a similar place. publicly called for an end to tribal
By learning lessons from other societies politics in the country. Following the
that have emerged from tribal conflict, election, former President George W.
the United States might be able to Bush released a statement urging Ameri-
overcome this divisive moment. cans to move beyond their entrenched
One central lesson is that leadership boundaries, saying, “The challenges that
matters. On the whole, conflict-affected face our country will demand the best of
states have found it nearly impossible to President-elect Biden and Vice-President-
overcome tribal divisions unless their elect Harris—and the best of us all. We
opposing leaders commit to doing so. must come together for the sake of our
Conversely, strong and principled leaders families and neighbors, and for our
can help point the way toward a more nation and its future.” Former President
united future. Notwithstanding the Barack Obama made a similar plea when
generational brutality and oppression he called for Americans to “do our
meted out by Afrikaners and other white part—to reach out beyond our comfort
South Africans against the Black and zone, to listen to others, to lower the
Coloured populations in South Africa, temperature and find some common
the antiapartheid activist Nelson Man- ground from which to move forward.”
dela famously worked with President Such statements were less forthcoming
F. W. de Klerk, a member of the party from political leaders in office. Although
responsible for apartheid, to dismantle the political calculus of those actively
the apartheid system. The Sinn Fein serving differs from that of those who
leader Gerry Adams and the Unionist have left public life, taking personal risks
David Trimble bridged bitter and violent for the greater good is the very definition
differences to negotiate the Good Friday of bravery. Americans must demand that
The Fractured Power
their elected leaders show the courage socioeconomic inequalities that affect
necessary to bridge partisan divides. communities of color, could help move
Another lesson drawn from conflict- the United States’ political culture
affected countries is the importance of beyond one of its most entrenched tribal
civic engagement. Precisely because divisions: partisan identity tied to race.
serving leaders are constrained by poli- Although this is work in which every
tics, civic groups dedicated to peace may citizen can engage, as president, Biden
be needed to make compromise possible. must take the lead. To start, he should
The Community of Sant’Egidio, a group convene a national summit on tribalism
of Catholic laity based in Rome, for and American politics to examine the
example, helped negotiate an end to the issue, explore its threat to U.S. gover-
civil war in Mozambique in 1992. The nance and security, and propose recom-
Women of Liberia Mass Action for Peace mendations to address it. The gathering
movement, led by the peace activist could be co-chaired by two former U.S.
Leymah Gbowee, played a similar role in presidents of opposite political parties
ending the Second Liberian Civil War in and include academics, members of the
2003 by organizing Christian and Mus- business community, civic leaders, and
lim women across confessional lines to other former elected politicians, all on a
demand a negotiated settlement to the bipartisan basis. Together, they could
conflict. For her efforts, Gbowee shared produce tangible proposals, from the
the 2011 Nobel Peace Prize. local to the national level, designed to
In the United States, all manner of fortify American governance against the
groups could take up the challenge of scourge of tribalism.
building these sorts of bridges. Many Beyond civic engagement, however,
already have. The civic campaign Mil- institutions also matter. Legal systems
lions of Conversations, founded by the and constitutions can either encourage or
Tennessee attorney and former White discourage cooperation. This is why many
House fellow Samar Ali, seeks to foster peace agreements brokered in countries
dialogue across party lines and social riven by tribal conflict have concluded
divisions. In November 2020, it spon- with either a substantially revised consti-
sored a “depolarization summit,” which tutional framework (as in South Africa
sought to proactively address potential after apartheid) or a binding power-
violence following the 2020 election. sharing deal (as in Burundi in 2000, after
The Episcopal Church, likewise, has the country’s civil war). Americans are
made racial reconciliation a priority in proud of the durability of their country’s
its national ministry. Beyond the moral constitution, which the Founding Fathers
imperative underlying such work, the designed to stifle factionalism. Yet today,
documented correlation between racial the framework provided by the U.S.
and political identities in the United Constitution is no longer up to the task.
States means that healing the country’s Of the various proposed constitutional
racial wounds will have an important reforms designed to modernize U.S. insti-
effect on governance. A full accounting tutions, the most important for address-
of the country’s racial history, coupled ing the challenge of political tribalism is
with focused attention on stubborn ending partisan gerrymandering. The
March/April 2021 45
practice, employed by both political not be easy, not least because the citizens
parties, creates majority districts without on whom the burden of addressing the
regard to natural or sensible geographic crisis falls are themselves caught up in the
boundaries. In so doing, it incentivizes tribalism that pervades society. Solving
legislators to play to a partisan base rather tribalism in the United States is not
than seek compromise across the aisle, unlike the biblical admonition “Physician,
lest challengers further to their party’s heal thyself.” Yet the state of U.S. democ-
ideological extreme penalize them. racy, as well as the country’s place in the
Tribalism is thus reinforced by the world, depends in large measure on
system. Efforts to end political gerry- whether its citizens can meet this
mandering have been underway for years, challenge. American foreign policy and
but politicians need to accelerate the national security experts, accustomed to
process. One option is for individual dealing with events beyond the country’s
states to ban the practice in their jurisdic- shores, would do well to participate in
tions. The other is for national leaders to domestic forums aimed at healing schisms
amend the U.S. Constitution to end the at home. Citizens who are normally loath
practice nationwide. Although both to engage in anything political should find
approaches would face stiff political ways to spend time regularly and mean-
opposition, there is no other structural ingfully interacting with people from
reform that would do more to diminish distinct backgrounds and perspectives.
the impact of tribalism on U.S. politics. The goal is not to eliminate differences
but to learn how to govern despite them.
MEETING THE MOMENT Although the United States is not at
In Bosnia, Burkina Faso, Cyprus, and imminent risk of a civil war, it is unable
many other countries beset by tribalism, to resolve many of its pressing domestic
it took external intervention to resolve problems or encourage other countries
ongoing conflicts. In some instances, to do the same. Tribal divisions within
that intervention took the form of the United States are susceptible to
mediation efforts by regional organiza- manipulation by enterprising politicians
tions such as the African Union or the at home and malevolent adversaries
Organization of American States. In abroad. Strengthening the country’s
others, it involved peacekeeping forces capacity to govern itself across these
from third parties such as the UN or boundaries is more than a moral good; it
NATO. Unsurprisingly, the United States is a national security priority. The case
is unlikely to tolerate outside help when for U.S. global leadership has never been
it comes to bridging its divisions. The simply that the country has an economy
country will never listen to a démarche or a military that is stronger than any
from the European Union expressing other. It is that the United States’
concern about rising tribalism, nor will example, and the ideals the United States
it invite peacekeepers to rescue Black embodies, is worthy of emulation and
neighborhoods from aggressive policing. respect. A country that reveres its
So it will fall to Americans to do the freedom and insists on its exceptionalism
work themselves of bridging their should also meet the standards of gover-
country’s tribal divisions. The task will nance it sets for itself.∂
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There are a lot of possible theories of
Foreign Policy for
DECLINE AND FALL
history, but they tend to fall, like Bush’s

and Trump’s, into two main camps:
Pragmatists optimistic and pessimistic. Thus, the
Clinton administration followed its own
version of happy directionality—think of
How Biden Can Learn From it as Bush with less muscular Christianity.
History in Real Time And there have been earlier believers in
Trump’s dark and stormy night, as well.
Gideon Rose Unfortunately, given the stakes of the
question, no one really knows whether
the optimists or the pessimists have the
B
ismarck once said that the states- better case. Political theorists have
man’s task was to hear God’s fought about that for centuries, with
footsteps marching through neither side winning. A few generations
history and try to catch his coattails as ago, modern social scientists joined in,
he went past. U.S. President George W. generating and testing lots of theories in
Bush agreed. In his second inaugural lots of ways, but still, neither camp
address, Bush argued that “history has bested the other. And then, in the last
an ebb and flow of justice, but history few years, history got interesting again
also has a visible direction, set by liberty and erased some of the few things the
and the Author of Liberty.” President scholars thought they had learned.
Donald Trump had a different take. His As individuals, presidents have had
National Security Strategy claimed: “A strong views on these matters. As a
central continuity in history is the group, they have not. American foreign
contest for power. The present time policy is notorious for its internal ten-
period is no different.” The Bush team sions. Its fits and starts and reversals do
saw history moving forward along a not fit easily into any single theoretical
sunlit path; the Trump team saw it as a framework. Yet this pluralism has proved
gloomy eternal return. Those beliefs led to be a feature, not a bug. Precisely
them to care about different issues, because it has not embraced any one
expect different things of the world, and approach to foreign policy consistently,
pursue different foreign policies. Washington has managed to avoid the
Theories of history, fundamental worst aspects of all. Blessed with geopo-
beliefs about how the world works, are litical privilege, it has slowly stumbled
usually assumed rather than argued and forward, moving over the centuries from
rarely get subjected to serious scrutiny. peripheral obscurity to global hegem-
Yet these general ideas set the parameters ony. Its genius has been less strategic
for all the specific policy choices an insight than an ability to cut losses.
administration makes. Know an admin- By now, it seems fair to say that the
istration’s theory of history, and much debate between the optimists and the
of the rest is easy to fill in. pessimists will never be settled conclu-
sively, since each perspective knows
GIDEON ROSE is Editor of Foreign Affairs. something big about international politics.
Gideon Rose
Instead of choosing between them, the and his version of the state of nature was
new administration should keep both more permissive. He didn’t think anarchy
truths in its pocket, taking each out necessarily forced states into inevitable
as appropriate. conflict. If they wanted, they could avoid
Learning in U.S. foreign policy has war through cooperation, gaining security
come largely across administrations. and protection by association.
President Joe Biden’s goal should be to Hobbes’s world and Locke’s world
speed up the process, allowing it to hap- looked quite different, so it was clearly
pen within an administration. Call it important for policymakers to determine
the Bayesian Doctrine: rather than which one corresponded better to reality.
being wedded to its priors, the adminis- If war was inevitable and any stretch of
tration should constantly update them. international quiet was just the calm
The way to do so is to make theorists, before another storm, states would be
not principals, the administration’s true suckers for ever letting their guard
team of rivals, forcing them to make down. But if sustained peaceful coop-
real-world predictions, and to offer eration was possible, they would be
testable practical advice, and then seeing fools for not trying to achieve it. For 300
whose turn out to be better in real years, the argument raged without end.
time. In this approach, searching intel- Pessimists tended to follow Hobbes, and
lectual honesty is more important than became known as “realists.” Optimists
ideology; what people think matters less were drawn to Locke, and became
than whether they can change their minds. known as “liberals.” And history piled
Constantly calculating implied odds up data higher and higher.
won’t always win pots. But it will help After World War II, scholars of
the administration fold bad hands early, international relations tackled the prob-
increasing its winnings over time. lem. They imposed order on the discus-
sion and refined its concepts. They
THE RISE AND FALL OF showed how one could operationalize
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS realist and liberal theories in many ways,
THEORY using different variables and processes
The canonical modern statements of the to produce different outcomes. They
pessimistic and optimistic visions were tested the theories with sophisticated
set out by the English philosophers methods and hoped that eventually their
Thomas Hobbes and John Locke in the collective efforts would yield greater
seventeenth century. Hobbes argued that understanding. Studies proliferated,
states in the international system were like researchers got better, and work became
individuals in a hypothetical state of more rigorous. But the anticipated
nature, before the invention of govern- knowledge failed to materialize, and it
ment. Living under anarchy, with no was hard to tell what, if any, intellectual
sovereign above them to provide order and ground had really been gained. Because
security, they were at perpetual risk, of this conspicuous failure, by the
trapped in a permanent war of all against twenty-first century, the status claims of
all, doomed to spend eternity jockeying realism, liberalism, and rationalistic
for power. Locke’s view was less bleak, theorizing in general were being called
NEW FROM GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY PRESS
“Fukuyama here shows again that the telos of history is

human dignity, not the State’s boot on your face, forever.”
—Deirdre Nansen McCloskey, author of
Why Liberalism Works
“Unprecedented insight into the mind of one of the

most influential public intellectuals of our time.”
—Helena Rosenblatt, author of
The Lost History of Liberalism
“The Biden administration should “Williams’s description of Japan’s

take careful note of the authors’ latest intelligence and security
smart and practical proposals for reforms provides excellent
restoring America’s traditional background and analysis both of
welcome to those seeking safety continuing challenges Japan faces
from persecution.” and how it has addressed past
—T. Alexander Aleinikoff, former gaps and failures.”
UN Deputy High Commissioner —Andrew L. Oros, author of
for Refugees and director, Zolberg Japan’s Security Renaissance,
Institute on Migration and Mobility Washington College
“An insightful assessment of all “A readable, coherent, and well-

important facets of China’s growing, and argued synthesis of the lessons
increasingly capable, nuclear arsenal.” the US military learned (and
—Thomas G. Mahnken, senior ignored) observing the conflicts
research professor at the Philip outside its borders.”
Merrill Center for Strategic Studies, —Brian McAllister Linn,
Johns Hopkins Ralph R. Thomas Class of 1921
Professor in Liberal Arts, Texas
A&M University
“A very important book on how the “This journal will not fly you from
United States should cope with a your chair to the front lines of
very different world. Essential for climate change, but we hope
conflict resolution courses.” that the voices represented can
—Roy Licklider, adjunct senior communicate some of what it
research scholar at the Saltzman means to be there.”
Institute for War and Peace Studies —Mark Giordano, Cinco
Hermanos Chair in Environment
and International Affairs,
Georgetown University
Gideon Rose
into question within the discipline. meanwhile, can no longer be automatically

Competing theoretical perspectives considered the greatest danger countries
crept back into serious discussion, and face. The pandemic has caused more death
scholars increasingly abandoned big and economic destruction than anything
questions altogether. Journals published short of nuclear war or a world war, and
articles on “the end of international climate change will be even more signifi-
relations theory.” And then the world cant. Global issues such as these do not
started to go off the rails. fit well into the realist paradigm.
Where do things stand now? Liberals The problems go deeper still. “Inter-
are on the defensive. They argued that national relations scholars,” the political
globalization would build on itself and scientist Daniel Drezner has written,
increasingly tie the world together, but “are certain about two facts: power is
instead it provoked a massive backlash, the defining concept of the discipline and
and states are weaponizing interdepen- there is no consensus about what that
dence. They saw democracy as improving concept means.”
at its core and marching forward on the Consider the question of how a
periphery, but it is now regressing and declining United States should respond to
retreating. They saw Chinese authoritari- a rising China. But first, explain just what
anism as doomed to fail, but it has is rising and falling about each. Military
succeeded beyond all expectations. They strength? Economic potential? Percep-
preached cosmopolitanism, but it turns tions about the long-term trends of those?
out that everybody’s a little bit nationalist Perceptions about the willingness to
(and gets more so under stress). They deploy them? The worth of each country’s
claimed that norms constrained behavior, alliances? Their national cohesiveness and
but the reality is that shameless people institutional performance? Power obvi-
can break them without consequence. ously comes in multiple forms and
These setbacks may be temporary, and the depends on context. This means that the
world may get back on the upward track it apparently straightforward question about
seemed to be traveling. But maybe not. the U.S.-Chinese power differential is
Realists, meanwhile, having taken actually quite complicated.
the other side of those bets, are feeling For all the realists’ ominous predictions
validated. Relations between the United about recurring conflict, finally, great-
States and China are playing out like a power war has not occurred for genera-
classic security dilemma. The Trump tions. Nobody knows for sure what has
administration’s most notable foreign driven this so-called long peace or how
policy accomplishment, its Arab-Israeli much longer it will endure. Suggestions
peace deals, emerged from classic include luck, nuclear weapons, historical
realpolitik. In practice, liberal hegemony memory, U.S. power and policy, eco-
looks a lot like . . . hegemony. nomic interdependence, changing value
Nevertheless, the picture is problem- systems, and more. But whatever the
atic here, too. Realism emphasizes states’ cause, until this unprecedented stretch of
relative power, and that matters. But so great-power peace is broken, it is a bit
do leaders, publics, nonstate actors, ideas, rich for pessimistic realists to claim that
institutions, and everything else. War, optimistic liberals are obviously naive.
Foreign Policy for Pragmatists
Interestingly, the dissidents in inter- numbers. Humans’ multiple cognitive

national relations—sociologists, psychol- deficiencies, for example, make them
ogists, constructivists, critical theorists, susceptible to lies, which play a major
cultural theorists, Marxists, feminists, but understudied role in politics.
network theorists, and others outside the Ordinary lying, knowingly telling
U.S. mainstream—have weathered untruths, is common. Big lying, peddling
recent decades better. This is not because a full-fledged alternative reality akin to
their own findings have cumulated; they the Marvel Universe, is not.
haven’t. But scholars drawn to those Big lies are the territory of prophets
approaches made wiser bets than the and demagogues, people who hear divine
rationalists, both realist and liberal, on voices themselves or play a divinity for
what ultimately mattered in political life. others. They are self-contained intellec-
They focused on hierarchy as well as tual paradigms immune from scientific
anarchy, making them better at seeing falsification. As the scholar Nina
domination when it was occurring. They Khrushcheva notes, the big lie “covers
were more attuned to social relationships. everything and redefines reality. There
And they started from better assumptions are no holes in it. You . . . either accept
about their basic unit of analysis. the whole thing or everything collapses.”
We now know that humans are cogni- The bigger the lie, the further it is from
tively biased against reason. Our brains reality, the more psychic potential energy
are hardwired to make us emotional, builds up in between. And when the
volatile, and tribal. We act according to collapse comes, the energy gets released
personal webs of meaning that do not in a sudden burst. It was that kind of
necessarily overlap with those of others. cathartic explosion that blew over the
The dissidents in international relations U.S. Capitol on January 6.
took those factors as starting points, not Was the riot a political protest that
afterthoughts. They looked at political got out of hand? An attempted putsch?
actors from the inside as well as out, A heroic defense of the republic
focused on identity, and appreciated against satanic pedophiles? It was all of
culture and contingency. Their approaches these and more, because the event was
were better suited for a world in which streaming on several platforms simul-
identity politics is central to everything taneously—not just the conventional
and small numbers of people can wreak TV networks but also the inner mental
vast amounts of damage—not to mention channels of the deluded rioters. This
a world in which those people increasingly was history as tragedy and farce
live through social media, the addicted combined; the casualties included a
customers of private companies with busi- woman who was reportedly trampled
ness models based on custom-tailoring to death while carrying a flag saying
reality, inflaming emotional volatility, and “Don’t Tread on Me.”
stoking group conflict. The most persuasive reading of the
day is as immersive theater, and not just
THE DRAMA AT THE CAPITOL because the marchers came in costume.
Studying these strange particles is It played like a mass live production of
difficult. It’s hard to count the irrational Euripides’s Bacchae, the tale of a myste-
March/April 2021 53
Gideon Rose
rious cult leader who wreaks vengeance other way last November, letting Trump
on a city that disrespects him by whip- win the presidency and the Republicans
ping its citizens into a frenzied nihilistic keep the Senate, fair and square.
rampage. Some men just want to watch In that branch of the multiverse,
the world burn. And some crowds just January 6 in Washington plays out rather
like the way it hurts. differently. The same crowd comes, but it
The riot’s practical implications are is much, much larger. They don’t want to
deeply disturbing. But its theoretical hang Vice President Mike Pence; they
implications are more so. For example, want to hug him. They don’t storm the
one leading proponent of the big lie in Capitol; they stand outside cheering as he
question, Peter Navarro, was a crucial certifies the president’s reelection. Trump
architect of the Trump administration’s is happy, too. And why not? He gets to
trade policy. It will be interesting to be the supreme leader of the world’s most
see how mainstream scholarship on powerful military, in unquestioned
international political economy incor- control of his party and all three branches
porates conspiracy theorizing into the of government, with an official propa-
heart of its analysis. ganda network and a cult of personality
Once they seized the Capitol, that has millions of members who will
meanwhile, these terrorists took selfies literally believe him over their own eyes.
rather than hostages. Like most of For four more years.
their predecessors in the 1970s, they It didn’t happen. But it could have,
wanted a lot of people watching, not a easily, with all the consequences one
lot of people dead. But what if among might spin out for everything from
them had been an even prouder boy, foreign policy and trade, to American
one like Timothy McVeigh, the 1995 ideals and institutions, to the future
Oklahoma City bomber? Then, the course of international politics. Democ-
entire U.S. Congress could easily have racy didn’t prevail. It lucked out. One
been wiped out, along with the vice does not come away from the thought
president. It will be interesting to see experiment struck by some larger
how the episode affects risk assessments pattern of history, optimistic or pessi-
of all kinds. Clearly, it isn’t so hard to mistic. One comes away struck by its
decapitate the United States. Just as radical contingency.
clearly, it hasn’t happened recently not
because anybody prevented it but FOREIGN POLICY AS ORIENTEERING
because almost nobody was trying. Some call for abandoning the search for
Most disturbing is what the incident a larger theoretical framework for
revealed about Trump. As Bob Corker, foreign policy altogether. “Grand
a former Republican senator from strategy is dead,” claimed Drezner and
Tennessee, put it: “The one plus that two other political scientists, Ronald
comes out of this [is] people have been Krebs and Randall Schweller, in these
able to see firsthand what all of us have pages last year. They argued:
known, just who he really is.” With that
in mind, imagine a scenario in which a The world today is one of interaction
few hundred thousand votes went the and complexity, wherein the most
Foreign Policy for Pragmatists
direct path between two points is not realist and liberal maps of the world
a straight line. A disordered, cluttered, with them as they go, filtering and
and fluid realm is precisely one that combining them as possible.
does not recognize grand strategy’s The first thing a player with two bad
supposed virtue: a practical, durable,
maps would learn was not to trust
and consistent plan for the long term.
either completely. The learning would
To debate grand strategy, they show itself over time primarily through
wrote, “is to indulge in navel-gazing the avoidance of extreme failure.
while the world burns. So it is time to Interestingly, this is just what Drezner
operate without one.” They want an and his co-authors find in the history
administration’s agenda to emerge of American foreign policy—which is
piece by piece, bottom up from depart- precisely why they suggest listening to
ments and the field, rather than spring the inductive, experiential wisdom of
from the head of some scribbler in practical policymakers: “The push and
Washington who thinks he knows pull between the establishment and its
where history is going. In place of critics and between the executive
overarching theoretical frameworks, branch and Congress eventually reined
they propose flexibility and incremen- in the worst excesses of American
tal experimentation. activism and prevented the overem-
Drezner, Krebs, and Schweller are brace of restraint.” The pattern is there,
correct when they argue that simplistic but miscoded. The United States has
road maps are not very helpful in not succeeded because it has operated
dealing with today’s complex interna- without theory. It has succeeded be-
tional landscape, and both convinced cause it has relied on multiple theories.
optimists and convinced pessimists The process works like this. An
seem fated to produce crude and optimistic administration, believing the
incomplete surveys. But that is not an world can be improved, invades a
argument for throwing the maps away. developing country (Vietnam, Afghani-
It is an argument for figuring out how stan, Iraq, etc.) and tries to make it
to use two bad maps simultaneously. look like Nebraska. After many years of
Foreign policy, after all, is not futile, costly effort, the administration
cartography. It’s orienteering—racing is kicked out and replaced with a
madly through dangerous, unknown pessimistic successor that withdraws. It
territory. And theorists aren’t mapmak- can go the other way, too. A pessimis-
ers, they’re coaches: their job is to help tic administration, thinking coopera-
players race better. Maps provide tion is for suckers, tries to go it alone
crucial information, but the players in the world—only to achieve little and
have to use them out in the field, trying be swapped out for optimistic succes-
to move as fast as possible relative to sors able to work better with others.
others without getting hurt. Offered The motor of U.S. diplomatic success
two bad maps, smart players wouldn’t has been the combination of multiple
pick one or toss both. They’d take both foreign policy traditions, multiple
along and put them to use. Policymak- dogmatic administrations, and regular
ers should do the same, carrying both political turnover.
March/April 2021 55
Gideon Rose
American foreign policy has always incorporating the two basic approaches
involved flying blind, making mistakes, to prediction, scenario planning and
and slowly, painfully learning what not probabilistic forecasting, into a unified
to do. But the process has played out framework. As Scoblic and Tetlock put it:
unconsciously, across administrations and
The answer lies in developing
eras rather than within them. By
clusters of questions that give early,
recognizing and surfacing the pattern, forecastable indications of which
by becoming aware of itself, the country envisioned future is likely to emerge,
could own its behavior and more con- thus allowing policymakers to place
sciously control and direct it. smarter bets sooner. Instead of
An excellent way to do just this in evaluating the likelihood of a long-
practice emerges from the forecasting term scenario as a whole, question
research of Philip Tetlock, an expert in clusters allow analysts to break down
political psychology. Tetlock began with potential futures into a series of clear
a simple experiment: he asked supposed and forecastable signposts that are
experts to make specific predictions about observable in the short run.
future political events and then checked
to see how they did. The results showed The Biden administration, in short,
that Yeats was right: the best lacked all does not face a tragic choice of pessimism,
conviction, while the worst were full of optimism, or just winging it. Instead of
passionate intensity. As the international embracing realism or liberalism, it can
security scholar Peter Scoblic and Tetlock choose pragmatism, the true American
wrote in these pages last year: ideology. The key is to draw on diverse
theoretical traditions to develop plausible
Those who were surest that they scenarios of many alternative futures,
understood the forces driving the
political system (“hedgehogs,” in the
design and track multiple indicators to
philosopher Isaiah Berlin’s terminol- see which of those scenarios is becoming
ogy) fared significantly worse than more likely, and follow the evidence
their humbler colleagues, who did honestly where it goes.
not shy from complexity, approach- Such an approach to foreign policy
ing problems with greater curiosity would not change the world. But it would
and open-mindedness (“foxes”). allow the United States to see the world
clearly and operate in it more effectively.
More experiments followed, includ- Which would be nice for a change.∂
ing tournaments with large numbers of
experts and amateurs, repeating and
elaborating on the findings. Out of the
whole, a picture emerged of what the
most successful forecasters did: they
kept an open mind and thought flexibly.
The essence of successful forecasting,
Tetlock decided, was combining multiple
maps with good decision rules for
choosing among them—which meant
ESSAYS
A framework for managing U.S.-Chinese
competition will be difficult to construct, but doing
so is still possible—and the alternatives are
likely to be catastrophic.
– Kevin Rudd
Short of War The Innovation Wars

Kevin Rudd 58 Christopher Darby and Sarah Sewall 142
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Short of War
How to Keep U.S.-Chinese Confrontation
From Ending in Calamity
Kevin Rudd
O
fficials in Washington and Beijing don’t agree on much these
days, but there is one thing on which they see eye to eye: the
contest between their two countries will enter a decisive phase
in the 2020s. This will be the decade of living dangerously. No matter
what strategies the two sides pursue or what events unfold, the tension
between the United States and China will grow, and competition will
intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not. It remains possible for
the two countries to put in place guardrails that would prevent a catas-
trophe: a joint framework for what I call “managed strategic competi-
tion” would reduce the risk of competition escalating into open conflict.
The Chinese Communist Party is increasingly confident that by the
decade’s end, China’s economy will finally surpass that of the United
States as the world’s largest in terms of GDP at market exchange rates.
Western elites may dismiss the significance of that milestone; the CCP’s
Politburo does not. For China, size always matters. Taking the number
one slot will turbocharge Beijing’s confidence, assertiveness, and lever-
age in its dealings with Washington, and it will make China’s central
bank more likely to float the yuan, open its capital account, and chal-
lenge the U.S. dollar as the main global reserve currency. Meanwhile,
China continues to advance on other fronts, as well. A new policy plan,
announced last fall, aims to allow China to dominate in all new tech-
nology domains, including artificial intelligence, by 2035. And Beijing
now intends to complete its military modernization program by 2027
(seven years ahead of the previous schedule), with the main goal of
giving China a decisive edge in all conceivable scenarios for a conflict
KEVIN RUDD is President of the Asia Society, in New York, and previously served as Prime
Minister of Australia.
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with the United States over Taiwan. A victory in such a conflict would
allow President Xi Jinping to carry out a forced reunification with Tai-
wan before leaving power—an achievement that would put him on the
same level within the CCP pantheon as Mao Zedong.
Washington must decide how to respond to Beijing’s assertive
agenda—and quickly. If it were to opt for economic decoupling and
open confrontation, every country in the world would be forced to
take sides, and the risk of escalation would only grow. Among policy-
makers and experts, there is understandable skepticism as to whether
Washington and Beijing can avoid such an outcome. Many doubt that
U.S. and Chinese leaders can find their way to a framework to man-
age their diplomatic relations, military operations, and activities in
cyberspace within agreed parameters that would maximize stability,
avoid accidental escalation, and make room for both competitive and
collaborative forces in the relationship. The two countries need to
consider something akin to the procedures and mechanisms that the
United States and the Soviet Union put in place to govern their rela-
tions after the Cuban missile crisis—but in this case, without first
going through the near-death experience of a barely avoided war.
Managed strategic competition would involve establishing certain hard
limits on each country’s security policies and conduct but would allow for
full and open competition in the diplomatic, economic, and ideological
realms. It would also make it possible for Washington and Beijing to co-
operate in certain areas, through bilateral arrangements and also multilat-
eral forums. Although such a framework would be difficult to construct,
doing so is still possible—and the alternatives are likely to be catastrophic.
BEIJING’S LONG VIEW

In the United States, few have paid much attention to the domestic
political and economic drivers of Chinese grand strategy, the content
of that strategy, or the ways in which China has been operationalizing
it in recent decades. The conversation in Washington has been all about
what the United States ought to do, without much reflection on whether
any given course of action might result in real changes to China’s stra-
tegic course. A prime example of this type of foreign policy myopia
was an address that then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivered
last July, in which he effectively called for the overthrow of the CCP.
“We, the freedom-loving nations of the world, must induce China to
change,” he declared, including by “empower[ing] the Chinese people.”
March/April 2021 59
Kevin Rudd
The only thing that could lead the Chinese people to rise up against
the party-state, however, is their own frustration with the CCP’s poor
performance on addressing unemployment, its radical mismanagement
of a natural disaster (such as a pandemic), or its massive extension of
what is already intense political repression. Outside encouragement of
such discontent, especially from the United States, is unlikely to help
and quite likely to hinder any change. Besides, U.S. allies would never
support such an approach; regime change has not exactly been a winning
strategy in recent decades. Finally, bombastic statements such as Pom-
peo’s are utterly counterproductive, because they strengthen Xi’s hand at
home, allowing him to point to the threat of foreign subversion to justify
ever-tighter domestic security measures, thereby making it easier for
him to rally disgruntled CCP elites in solidarity against an external threat.
That last factor is particularly important for Xi, because one of his
main goals is to remain in power until 2035, by which time he will be
82, the age at which Mao passed away. Xi’s determination to do so is
reflected in the party’s abolition of term limits, its recent announce-
ment of an economic plan that extends all the way to 2035, and the fact
that Xi has not even hinted at who might succeed him even though
only two years remain in his official term. Xi experienced some diffi-
culty in the early part of 2020, owing to a slowing economy and the
COVID-19 pandemic, whose Chinese origins put the CCP on the defen-
sive. But by the year’s end, official Chinese media were hailing him as
the party’s new “great navigator and helmsman,” who had prevailed in
a heroic “people’s war” against the novel coronavirus. Indeed, Xi’s
standing has been aided greatly by the shambolic management of the
pandemic in the United States and a number of other Western coun-
tries, which the CCP has highlighted as evidence of the inherent supe-
riority of the Chinese authoritarian system. And just in case any
ambitious party officials harbor thoughts about an alternative candi-
date to lead the party after Xi’s term is supposed to end in 2022, Xi
recently launched a major purge—a “rectification campaign,” as the
CCP calls it—of members deemed insufficiently loyal.
Meanwhile, Xi has carried out a massive crackdown on China’s Ui-
ghur minority in the region of Xinjiang; launched campaigns of re-
pression in Hong Kong, Inner Mongolia, and Tibet; and stifled dissent
among intellectuals, lawyers, artists, and religious organizations across
China. Xi has come to believe that China should no longer fear any
sanctions that the United States might impose on his country, or on
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individual Chinese officials, in response to violations of human rights.

In his view, China’s economy is now strong enough to weather such
sanctions, and the party can protect officials from any fallout, as well.
Furthermore, unilateral U.S. sanctions are unlikely to be adopted by
other countries, for fear of Chinese retaliation. Nonetheless, the CCP
remains sensitive to the damage that can be done to China’s global
brand by continuing revelations about its treatment of minorities.
That is why Beijing has become more active in international forums,
including the UN Human Rights Council, where it has rallied support
for its campaign to push back against long-established universal norms
on human rights, while also regularly attacking the United States for
its own alleged abuses of those very norms.
Xi is also intent on achieving Chinese self-sufficiency to head off any
effort by Washington to decouple the United States’ economy from that
of China or to use U.S. control of the global financial system to block
China’s rise. This push lies at the heart of what Xi describes as China’s
“dual circulation economy”: its shift away from export dependency and
toward domestic consumption as the long-term driver of economic
growth and its plan to rely on the gravitational pull of the world’s big-
gest consumer market to attract foreign investors and suppliers to China
on Beijing’s terms. Xi also recently announced a new strategy for tech-
nology R & D and manufacturing to reduce China’s dependence on
imports of certain core technologies, such as semiconductors.
The trouble with this approach is that it prioritizes party control and
state-owned enterprises over China’s hard-working, innovative, and en-
trepreneurial private sector, which has been primarily responsible for
the country’s remarkable economic success over the last two decades. In
order to deal with a perceived external economic threat from Washing-
ton and an internal political threat from private entrepreneurs whose
long-term influence threatens the power of the CCP, Xi faces a dilemma
familiar to all authoritarian regimes: how to tighten central political
control without extinguishing business confidence and dynamism.
Xi faces a similar dilemma when it comes to what is perhaps his
paramount goal: securing control over Taiwan. Xi appears to have
concluded that China and Taiwan are now further away from peaceful
reunification than at any time in the past 70 years. This is probably
correct. But China often ignores its own role in widening the gulf.
Many of those who believed that China would gradually liberalize its
political system as it opened up its economic system and became more
March/April 2021 61
Kevin Rudd
connected with the rest of the world also hoped that that process
would eventually allow Taiwan to become more comfortable with
some form of reunification. Instead, China has become more authori-
tarian under Xi, and the promise of reunification under a “one coun-
try, two systems” formula has evaporated as the Taiwanese look to
Hong Kong, where China has imposed a harsh new national security
law, arrested opposition politicians, and restricted media freedom.
With peaceful reunification off the table, Xi’s strategy now is clear: to
vastly increase the level of military power that China can exert in the
Taiwan Strait, to the extent that the
United States would become unwilling
Beijing has concluded that to fight a battle that Washington itself
the United States judged it would probably lose. Without
U.S. backing, Xi believes, Taiwan would
would never fight a war it either capitulate or fight on its own and
could not win. lose. This approach, however, radically
underestimates three factors: the diffi-
culty of occupying an island that is the
size of the Netherlands, has the terrain of Norway, and boasts a well-
armed population of 25 million; the irreparable damage to China’s inter-
national political legitimacy that would arise from such a brutal use of
military force; and the deep unpredictability of U.S. domestic politics,
which would determine the nature of the U.S. response if and when
such a crisis arose. Beijing, in projecting its own deep strategic realism
onto Washington, has concluded that the United States would never
fight a war it could not win, because to do so would be terminal for the
future of American power, prestige, and global standing. What China
does not include in this calculus is the reverse possibility: that the failure
to fight for a fellow democracy that the United States has supported for
the entire postwar period would also be catastrophic for Washington,
particularly in terms of the perception of U.S. allies in Asia, who might
conclude that the American security guarantees they have long relied on
are worthless—and then seek their own arrangements with China.
As for China’s maritime and territorial claims in the East China and
South China Seas, Xi will not concede an inch. Beijing will continue to
sustain pressure on its Southeast Asian neighbors in the South China
Sea, actively contesting freedom-of-navigation operations, probing for
any weakening of individual or collective resolve—but stopping short
of a provocation that might trigger a direct military confrontation with
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Kevin Rudd
Washington, because at this stage, China is not fully confident it would

win. In the meantime, Beijing will seek to cast itself in as reasonable a
light as possible in its ongoing negotiations with Southeast Asian
claimant states on the joint use of energy resources and fisheries in the
South China Sea. Here, as elsewhere, China will fully deploy its eco-
nomic leverage in the hope of securing the region’s neutrality in the
event of a military incident or crisis involving the United States or its
allies. In the East China Sea, China will continue to increase its mili-
tary pressure on Japan around the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands,
but as in Southeast Asia, here too Beijing is unlikely to risk an armed
conflict, particularly given the unequivocal nature of the U.S. security
guarantee to Japan. Any risk, however small, of China losing such a
conflict would be politically unsustainable in Beijing and have massive
domestic political consequences for Xi.
AMERICA THROUGH XI’S EYES

Underneath all these strategic choices lies Xi’s belief, reflected in official
Chinese pronouncements and CCP literature, that the United States is
experiencing a steady, irreversible structural decline. This belief is now
grounded in a considerable body of evidence. A divided U.S. govern-
ment failed to craft a national strategy for long-term investment in in-
frastructure, education, and basic scientific and technological research.
The Trump administration damaged U.S. alliances, abandoned trade
liberalization, withdrew the United States from its leadership of the
postwar international order, and crippled U.S. diplomatic capacity. The
Republican Party has been hijacked by the far right, and the American
political class and electorate are so deeply polarized that it will prove
difficult for any president to win support for a long-term bipartisan
strategy on China. Washington, Xi believes, is highly unlikely to recover
its credibility and confidence as a regional and global leader. And he is
betting that as the next decade progresses, other world leaders will come
to share this view and begin to adjust their strategic postures accord-
ingly, gradually shifting from balancing with Washington against Bei-
jing, to hedging between the two powers, to bandwagoning with China.
But China worries about the possibility of Washington lashing out at
Beijing in the years before U.S. power finally dissipates. Xi’s concern is
not just a potential military conflict but also any rapid and radical eco-
nomic decoupling. Moreover, the CCP’s diplomatic establishment fears
that the Biden administration, realizing that the United States will soon
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be unable to match Chinese power on its own, might form an effective

coalition of countries across the democratic capitalist world with the
express aim of counterbalancing China collectively. In particular, CCP
leaders fear that President Joe Biden’s proposal to hold a summit of the
world’s major democracies represents a first step on that path, which is
why China acted rapidly to secure new trade and investment agreements
in Asia and Europe before the new administration came into office.
Mindful of this combination of near-term risks and China’s long-
term strengths, Xi’s general diplomatic strategy toward the Biden ad-
ministration will be to de-escalate immediate tensions, stabilize the
bilateral relationship as early as possible, and do everything possible
to prevent security crises. To this end, Beijing will look to fully re-
open the lines of high-level military communication with Washington
that were largely cut off during the Trump administration. Xi might
seek to convene a regular, high-level political dialogue, as well, al-
though Washington will not be interested in reestablishing the U.S.-
China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, which served as the main
channel between the two countries until its collapse amid the trade
war of 2018–19. Finally, Beijing may moderate its military activity in
the immediate period ahead in areas where the People’s Liberation
Army rubs up directly against U.S. forces, particularly in the South
China Sea and around Taiwan—assuming that the Biden administra-
tion discontinues the high-level political visits to Taipei that became
a defining feature of the final year of the Trump administration. For
Beijing, however, these are changes in tactics, not in strategy.
As Xi tries to ratchet down tensions in the near term, he will have
to decide whether to continue pursuing his hard-line strategy against
Australia, Canada, and India, which are friends or allies of the United
States. This has involved a combination of a deep diplomatic freeze
and economic coercion—and, in the case of India, direct military con-
frontation. Xi will wait for any clear signal from Washington that part
of the price for stabilizing the U.S.-Chinese relationship would be an
end to such coercive measures against U.S. partners. If no such signal
is forthcoming—there was none under President Donald Trump—
then Beijing will resume business as usual.
Meanwhile, Xi will seek to work with Biden on climate change. Xi
understands this is in China’s interests because of the country’s in-
creasing vulnerability to extreme weather events. He also realizes that
Biden has an opportunity to gain international prestige if Beijing co-
March/April 2021 65
Kevin Rudd
operates with Washington on climate change, given the weight of

Biden’s own climate commitments, and he knows that Biden will want
to be able to demonstrate that his engagement with Beijing led to re-
ductions in Chinese carbon emissions. As China sees it, these factors
will deliver Xi some leverage in his overall dealings with Biden. And
Xi hopes that greater collaboration on climate will help stabilize the
U.S.-Chinese relationship more generally.
Adjustments in Chinese policy along these lines, however, are still
likely to be tactical rather than strategic. Indeed, there has been re-
markable continuity in Chinese strategy toward the United States
since Xi came to power in 2013, and Beijing has been surprised by the
relatively limited degree to which Washington has pushed back, at least
until recently. Xi, driven by a sense of Marxist-Leninist determinism,
also believes that history is on his side. As Mao was before him, Xi has
become a formidable strategic competitor for the United States.
UNDER NEW MANAGEMENT

On balance, the Chinese leadership would have preferred to have seen
the reelection of Trump in last year’s U.S. presidential election. That is
not to say that Xi saw strategic value in every element of Trump’s for-
eign policy; he didn’t. The CCP found the Trump administration’s trade
war humiliating, its moves toward decoupling worrying, its criticism of
China’s human rights record insulting, and its formal declaration of
China as a “strategic competitor” sobering. But most in the CCP’s for-
eign policy establishment view the recent shift in U.S. sentiment to-
ward China as structural—an inevitable byproduct of the changing
balance of power between the two countries. In fact, a number have
been quietly relieved that open strategic competition has replaced the
pretense of bilateral cooperation. With Washington having removed
the mask, this thinking goes, China could now move more rapidly—
and, in some cases, openly—toward realizing its strategic goals, while
also claiming to be the aggrieved party in the face of U.S. belligerence.
But by far the greatest gift that Trump delivered to Beijing was the
sheer havoc his presidency unleashed within the United States and
between Washington and its allies. China was able to exploit the
many cracks that developed between liberal democracies as they tried
to navigate Trump’s protectionism, climate change denialism, nation-
alism, and contempt for all forms of multilateralism. During the
Trump years, Beijing benefited not because of what it offered the
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world but because of what Washington ceased to offer. The result

was that China achieved victories such as the massive Asia-Pacific
free-trade deal known as the Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership and the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on In-
vestment, which will enmesh the Chinese and European economies
to a far greater degree than Washington would like.
China is wary of the Biden administration’s ability to help the
United States recover from those self-inflicted wounds. Beijing has
seen Washington bounce back from political, economic, and secu-
rity disasters before. Nonetheless, the CCP remains confident that
the inherently divisive nature of U.S. politics will make it impossi-
ble for the new administration to solidify support for any coherent
China strategy it might devise.
Biden intends to prove Beijing wrong in its assessment that the
United States is now in irreversible decline. He will seek to use his
extensive experience on Capitol Hill to forge a domestic economic
strategy to rebuild the foundations of U.S. power in the post-pandemic
world. He is also likely to continue to strengthen the capabilities of
the U.S. military and to do what it takes to sustain American global
technological leadership. He has assembled a team of economic, for-
eign policy, and national security advisers who are experienced pro-
fessionals and well versed in China—in stark contrast to their
predecessors, who, with a couple of midranking exceptions, had little
grasp of China and even less grasp of how to make Washington work.
Biden’s advisers also understand that in order to restore U.S. power
abroad, they must rebuild the U.S. economy at home in ways that will
reduce the country’s staggering inequality and increase economic op-
portunities for all Americans. Doing so will help Biden maintain the
political leverage he’ll need to craft a durable China strategy with bi-
partisan support—no mean feat when opportunistic opponents such
as Pompeo will have ample incentive to disparage any plan he puts
forward as little more than appeasement.
To lend his strategy credibility, Biden will have to make sure the
U.S. military stays several steps ahead of China’s increasingly sophis-
ticated array of military capabilities. This task will be made more
difficult by intense budgetary constraints, as well as pressure from
some factions within the Democratic Party to reduce military spend-
ing in order to boost social welfare programs. For Biden’s strategy to
be seen as credible in Beijing, his administration will need to hold the
March/April 2021 67
Kevin Rudd
line on the aggregate defense budget and cover increased expenses in

the Indo-Pacific region by redirecting military resources away from
less pressing theaters, such as Europe.
As China becomes richer and stronger, the United States’ largest
and closest allies will become ever more crucial to Washington. For the
first time in many decades, the United States will soon require the com-
bined heft of its allies to maintain an overall balance of power against
an adversary. China will keep trying to peel countries away from the
United States—such as Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan,
South Korea, and the United Kingdom—using a combination of eco-
nomic carrots and sticks. To prevent China from succeeding, the Biden
administration needs to commit itself to fully opening the U.S. econ-
omy to its major strategic partners. The United States prides itself on
having one of the most open economies in the world. But even before
Trump’s pivot to protectionism, that was not the case. Washington has
long burdened even its closest allies with formidable tariff and nontariff
barriers to trade, investment, capital, technology, and talent. If the
United States wishes to remain the center of what until recently was
called “the free world,” then it must create a seamless economy across
the national boundaries of its major Asian, European, and North Amer-
ican partners and allies. To do so, Biden must overcome the protection-
ist impulses that Trump exploited and build support for new trade
agreements anchored in open markets. To allay the fears of a skeptical
electorate, he will need to show Americans that such agreements will
ultimately lead to lower prices, better wages, more opportunities for
U.S. industry, and stronger environmental protections and assure them
that the gains won from trade liberalization can help pay for major do-
mestic improvements in education, childcare, and health care.
The Biden administration will also strive to restore the United States’
leadership in multilateral institutions such as the UN, the World Bank,
the International Monetary Fund, and the World Trade Organization.
Most of the world will welcome this after four years of watching the
Trump administration sabotage much of the machinery of the postwar
international order. But the damage will not be repaired overnight. The
most pressing priorities are fixing the World Trade Organization’s bro-
ken dispute-resolution process, rejoining the Paris agreement on climate
change, increasing the capitalization of both the World Bank and the
International Monetary Fund (to provide credible alternatives to China’s
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and its Belt and Road Initiative),
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and restoring U.S. funding for critical UN agencies. Such institutions

have not only been instruments of U.S. soft power since Washington
helped create them after the last world war; their operations also materi-
ally affect American hard power in areas such as nuclear proliferation
and arms control. Unless Washington steps up to the plate, the institu-
tions of the international system will increasingly become Chinese satra-
pies, driven by Chinese finance, influence, and personnel.
MANAGED STRATEGIC COMPETITION

The deeply conflicting nature of U.S. and Chinese strategic objec-
tives and the profoundly competitive nature of the relationship may
make conflict, and even war, seem inevitable—even if neither country
wants that outcome. China will seek to achieve global economic dom-
inance and regional military superiority over the United States with-
out provoking direct conflict with Washington and its allies. Once it
achieves superiority, China will then incrementally change its behav-
ior toward other states, especially when their policies conflict with
China’s ever-changing definition of its core national interests. On top
of this, China has already sought to gradually make the multilateral
system more obliging of its national interests and values.
But a gradual, peaceful transition to an international order that ac-
commodates Chinese leadership now seems far less likely to occur than
it did just a few years ago. For all the eccentricities and flaws of the
Trump administration, its decision to declare China a strategic com-
petitor, formally end the doctrine of strategic engagement, and launch
a trade war with Beijing succeeded in making clear that Washington
was willing to put up a significant fight. And the Biden administra-
tion’s plan to rebuild the fundamentals of national U.S. power at home,
rebuild U.S. alliances abroad, and reject a simplistic return to earlier
forms of strategic engagement with China signals that the contest will
continue, albeit tempered by cooperation in a number of defined areas.
The question for both Washington and Beijing, then, is whether
they can conduct this high level of strategic competition within agreed-
on parameters that would reduce the risk of a crisis, conflict, and war.
In theory, this is possible; in practice, however, the near-complete ero-
sion of trust between the two has radically increased the degree of dif-
ficulty. Indeed, many in the U.S. national security community believe
that the CCP has never had any compunction about lying or hiding its
true intentions in order to deceive its adversaries. In this view, Chinese
March/April 2021 69
Kevin Rudd
diplomacy aims to tie opponents’ hands and buy time for Beijing’s
military, security, and intelligence machinery to achieve superiority
and establish new facts on the ground. To win broad support from U.S.
foreign policy elites, therefore, any concept of managed strategic com-
petition will need to include a stipulation by both parties to base any
new rules of the road on a reciprocal practice of “trust but verify.”
The idea of managed strategic competition is anchored in a deeply
realist view of the global order. It accepts that states will continue to
seek security by building a balance of power in their favor, while rec-
ognizing that in doing so they are likely to create security dilemmas
for other states whose fundamental interests may be disadvantaged by
their actions. The trick in this case is to reduce the risk to both sides
as the competition between them unfolds by jointly crafting a limited
number of rules of the road that will help prevent war. The rules will
enable each side to compete vigorously across all policy and regional
domains. But if either side breaches the rules, then all bets are off, and
it’s back to all the hazardous uncertainties of the law of the jungle.
The first step to building such a framework would be to identify a few
immediate steps that each side must take in order for a substantive dia-
logue to proceed and a limited number of hard limits that both sides (and
U.S. allies) must respect. Both sides must abstain, for example, from
cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure. Washington must return to
strictly adhering to the “one China” policy, especially by ending the
Trump administration’s provocative and unnecessary high-level visits to
Taipei. For its part, Beijing must dial back its recent pattern of provoca-
tive military exercises, deployments, and maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait.
In the South China Sea, Beijing must not reclaim or militarize any more
islands and must commit to respecting freedom of navigation and air-
craft movement without challenge; for its part, the United States and its
allies could then (and only then) reduce the number of operations they
carry out in the sea. Similarly, China and Japan could cut back their mili-
tary deployments in the East China Sea by mutual agreement over time.
If both sides could agree on those stipulations, each would have to
accept that the other will still try to maximize its advantages while
stopping short of breaching the limits. Washington and Beijing would
continue to compete for strategic and economic influence across the
various regions of the world. They would keep seeking reciprocal access
to each other’s markets and would still take retaliatory measures when
such access was denied. They would still compete in foreign investment
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markets, technology markets, capital markets, and currency markets.

And they would likely carry out a global contest for hearts and minds,
with Washington stressing the importance of democracy, open econo-
mies, and human rights and Beijing highlighting its approach to au-
thoritarian capitalism and what it calls “the China development model.”
Even amid escalating competition,
however, there will be some room for
cooperation in a number of critical ar- The trick is to reduce the
eas. This occurred even between the risk to both sides by jointly
United States and the Soviet Union at crafting rules of the road.
the height of the Cold War. It should
certainly be possible now between the
United States and China, when the stakes are not nearly as high. Aside
from collaborating on climate change, the two countries could conduct
bilateral nuclear arms control negotiations, including on mutual ratifica-
tion of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, and work toward
an agreement on acceptable military applications of artificial intelli-
gence. They could cooperate on North Korean nuclear disarmament
and on preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. They could
undertake a series of confidence-building measures across the Indo-
Pacific region, such as coordinated disaster-response and humanitarian
missions. They could work together to improve global financial stability,
especially by agreeing to reschedule the debts of developing countries
hit hard by the pandemic. And they could jointly build a better system
for distributing COVID-19 vaccines in the developing world.
That list is far from exhaustive. But the strategic rationale for all the
items is the same: it is better for both countries to operate within a joint
framework of managed competition than to have no rules at all. The
framework would need to be negotiated between a designated and
trusted high-level representative of Biden and a Chinese counterpart
close to Xi; only a direct, high-level channel of that sort could lead to
confidential understandings on the hard limits to be respected by both
sides. These two people would also become the points of contact when
violations occurred, as they are bound to from time to time, and the ones
to police the consequences of any such violations. Over time, a mini-
mum level of strategic trust might emerge. And maybe both sides would
also discover that the benefits of continued collaboration on common
planetary challenges, such as climate change, might begin to affect the
other, more competitive and even conflictual areas of the relationship.
March/April 2021 71
Kevin Rudd
There will be many who will criticize this approach as naive. Their
responsibility, however, is to come up with something better. Both the
United States and China are currently in search of a formula to man-
age their relationship for the dangerous decade ahead. The hard truth
is that no relationship can ever be managed unless there is a basic
agreement between the parties on the terms of that management.
GAME ON
What would be the measures of success should the United States and
China agree on such a joint strategic framework? One sign of success
would be if by 2030 they have avoided a military crisis or conflict across
the Taiwan Strait or a debilitating cyberattack. A convention banning
various forms of robotic warfare would be a clear victory, as would the
United States and China acting immediately together, and with the World
Health Organization, to combat the next pandemic. Perhaps the most
important sign of success, however, would be a situation in which both
countries competed in an open and vigorous campaign for global sup-
port for the ideas, values, and problem-solving approaches that their
respective systems offer—with the outcome still to be determined.
Success, of course, has a thousand fathers, but failure is an orphan.
But the most demonstrable example of a failed approach to managed
strategic competition would be over Taiwan. If Xi were to calculate
that he could call Washington’s bluff by unilaterally breaking out of
whatever agreement had been privately reached with Washington, the
world would find itself in a world of pain. In one fell swoop, such a
crisis would rewrite the future of the global order.
A few days before Biden’s inauguration, Chen Yixin, the secretary-
general of the CCP’s Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission,
stated that “the rise of the East and the decline of the West has be-
come [a global] trend and changes of the international landscape are
in our favor.” Chen is a close confidant of Xi and a central figure in
China’s normally cautious national security apparatus, and so the hu-
bris in his statement is notable. In reality, there is a long way to go in
this race. China has multiple domestic vulnerabilities that are rarely
noted in the media. The United States, on the other hand, always has
its weaknesses on full public display—but has repeatedly demon-
strated its capacity for reinvention and restoration. Managed strategic
competition would highlight the strengths and test the weaknesses of
both great powers—and may the best system win.∂
Accomplice to Carnage
How America Enables War in Yemen
I
n late March 2015, Saudi officials came to the Obama administra-
tion with a message: Saudi Arabia and a coalition of partners
were on the verge of intervening in neighboring Yemen, whose
leader had recently been ousted by rebels. This wasn’t exactly a bolt
from the blue. The Saudis had been flagging their growing concerns
about the insurgency on their southern border for months, arguing
that the rebels were proxies for their archrival, Iran. Still, the mes-
sage had what Obama administration officials characterized as a “five
minutes to midnight” quality that they had not quite anticipated:
Saudi Arabia was going to act imminently, with or without the United
States. But it much preferred to proceed with American help.
President Barack Obama’s advisers looked on the decision facing
the administration with queasiness. Both of us were serving in senior
positions at the National Security Council at the time, one advising
on Middle East policy and the other on human rights and multilat-
eral affairs. Everyone in the administration knew the checkered his-
tory of U.S. interventions in the Arab world, most recently in Libya,
and was well aware of the president’s strong distaste for another one.
From Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, officials knew how hard it was
to defeat an insurgency—how promises of a quick victory over a de-
termined group of rebels have a way of disappointing. In this case,
there was extra reason to be skeptical. U.S. officials thought Saudi
Arabia was exaggerating Iran’s role, and they had no illusions that the
Saudi armed forces, although well supplied with modern U.S. weap-
ROBERT MALLEY is President and CEO of the International Crisis Group. During the Obama
administration, he served as Special Assistant to the President, White House Middle East
Coordinator, and Senior Adviser on countering the Islamic State.
STEPHEN POMPER is Senior Director for Policy at the International Crisis Group. During
the Obama administration, he served as Special Assistant to the President and Senior
Director for Multilateral Affairs and Human Rights at the National Security Council.
March/April 2021 73
ons, were a precision instrument. In short, there was plenty that

could go wrong. As a former senior official would later tell one of us,
“We knew we might be getting into a car with a drunk driver.”
And yet the United States climbed in anyway. Thinking that it could
offer sober guidance and grab the wheel when necessary, Washington
shared intelligence, refueled aircraft, sold weapons, and provided dip-
lomatic cover. Now, almost six years after the Saudi intervention, the
war in Yemen is nothing short of a disaster. It has further destabilized
the Middle East, empowered Iran, and sullied the United States’ global
reputation. Above all, it has devastated the Yemeni people, who are
now experiencing the world’s worst ongoing humanitarian catastrophe.
Close to a quarter of a million people have died as a result of the con-
flict, according to the UN, roughly half from indirect causes such as
malnutrition and disease. Many millions more are starving or home-
less. And with power fragmented among a growing number of Yemeni
actors on the ground, the conflict has become even harder to resolve.
The United States has had a major hand in Yemen from the begin-
ning and thus must answer for its part in the tragedy. For reasons
both moral and strategic, the Biden administration should make it a
priority to disentangle the United States from the war in Yemen and
do what it can to bring the conflict to a long-overdue conclusion. But
to prevent history from repeating itself, the administration should
also make it a priority to learn from the conflict’s sad lessons. The
story of U.S. involvement in the war is one of entangling partner-
ships, wishful thinking, and expediency. Seeking to avoid a rift with
a close ally, an administration that was determined to steer clear of
another war in the Middle East ended up becoming complicit in one
of the region’s most horrific ones.
OBAMA’S CHOICE
How did the United States get pulled into this wretched mess? The tale
begins in 2011, with the fall of Yemen’s aging, corrupt, and authoritar-
ian president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was forced by protests to hand
over power to his vice president, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi. Hadi was
supposed to serve as a bridge between the old regime and a brighter
future, but it didn’t work out that way. A nine-month “national dia-
logue conference” delivered an aspirational, if flawed, blueprint for po-
litical reform in January 2014. But by then, the economy was near
collapse, and a group of rebels that had been fighting the central gov-
Blockaded: a malnourished girl in Hodeidah, Yemen, March 2019

ernment for the past decade was making rapid territorial gains. These
were the Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah (Partisans of God), fol-
lowers of the Zaydi branch of Shiite Islam who were based in the coun-
try’s north, near the Saudi border. In September 2014, riding a wave of
antigovernment anger, the Houthis seized control of Yemen’s capital,
Sanaa, and eventually chased Hadi to the southern port city of Aden.
Saudi Arabia feared that its neighbor would be completely taken
over by Iranian surrogates. In early 2015, it rallied a coalition of nine
mostly Sunni Arab states, the United Arab Emirates chief among
them, and prepared to launch a military intervention to restore Hadi
to power and counter what it perceived as an expanding Iranian threat
to the region. The decision came on the heels of a power transition in
Saudi Arabia that resulted in the rise of Crown Prince Mohammed bin
A B D U L J A B B A R Z E YA D / R E U T E R S
Salman, or MBS, who would become the face of the war in Yemen.
That was the context in which the Saudis made their request for
American help. U.S. officials scrambled to consolidate their views and
make a recommendation to the president. Many had concerns about
the coalition’s possible heavy-handedness and were of mixed minds
about whether MBS should be seen as a potential rising star or a wor-
rying hothead, but in the end, the decision was not an especially close
March/April 2021 75
call. Obama’s senior national security team unanimously recommended

proceeding with some measure of assistance for the Saudi campaign,
and the president concurred. The White House announced that he
had authorized “the provision of logistical and intelligence support” to
the coalition and that the United States would work with its new part-
ners to create a joint planning cell in
Riyadh that would “coordinate U.S.
The United States has had military and intelligence support.”
a major hand in Yemen Why the Obama administration
did this had much to do with Hadi. In
from the beginning and its view, he was the legitimate leader
thus must answer for its of Yemen and a vast improvement
part in the tragedy. over his much-disliked predecessor.
Hadi was also seen as a reliable coun-
terterrorism partner, someone who
gave the United States wide berth in its operations against al Qaeda in
the Arabian Peninsula, which many U.S. officials rated as the most
dangerous of al Qaeda’s franchises. When the Houthis, who were ve-
hemently anti-American, ran Hadi out of Sanaa, the U.S. government
saw their triumph as an affront to its interests in Yemen and to inter-
national law. For reasons that seemed to it both principled and prag-
matic, Washington hoped for a restoration.
That was not all. U.S. officials also sought to improve relations
with the Saudis and with Washington’s other Gulf partners, most
notably the United Arab Emirates. For decades, the United States
had viewed its partnerships in the region as key to protecting its en-
ergy and security interests, and in the spring of 2015, those ties were
under strain. Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies saw the Iran nuclear
deal, then nearing completion, as giving Iran a leg up at their ex-
pense. But they were nursing other grievances, too—notably about
U.S. policy during the Arab Spring, particularly toward Egypt, where
they thought the Obama administration had been too quick to aban-
don President Hosni Mubarak and then too willing to normalize re-
lations with the Muslim Brotherhood government that replaced him.
The Gulf states also believed that the United States was withdrawing
from the region, leaving them vulnerable to Islamist attacks.
Thus, the watchword of U.S. policy became “reassurance.” This
meant reinforcing to the Saudis that Washington would stand behind
a decades-old security assurance to defend their country against certain
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A95732
external threats, as well as spreading some of that feeling of steadfast

support to other regional partners. When U.S. officials were plan-
ning a summit of Gulf leaders at Camp David for May 2015, they had
one major deliverable in mind: a communiqué affirming the United
States’ readiness to come to their countries’ aid in the event of exter-
nal aggression. Now, the Saudis felt threatened by an Iranian-backed
militia on their southern border. Giving them a flat no would have
been off message, to say the least.
Another reason U.S. officials decided to support the Saudi-led
coalition in 2015 was that they thought Washington could act as a
moderating influence. The support that Obama authorized came
with limits, caveats, and safety features. Obama’s guidance was that
American help should serve the purpose of protecting Saudi Ara-
bia’s territorial integrity, making the assistance essentially defensive
in nature. The administration also hoped that the joint planning cell
would act as a forum where American advisers could professionalize
their Saudi counterparts, learn what they were doing, and, when
necessary, rein them in.
REINING IN THE SAUDIS

As soon become apparent, and has since become incontrovertible,
the United States greatly underestimated the challenge it would face
in curbing Saudi operations and minimizing both humanitarian dam-
age and civilian casualties. The coalition resorted to brass-knuckle
tactics early on. First, it prevented imports from entering Houthi-
held areas, strangling the flow of commodities into the country’s
largest and most important port, Hodeidah. Then, it bombed critical
infrastructure, such as container cranes and food-production facili-
ties. Strikes hit residential neighborhoods and weddings. In several
instances, U.S. officials worried that the coalition was acting inten-
tionally, perhaps perceiving these strikes to have a tactical benefit.
The U.S. response was to try to fix the problem. American diplo-
mats backed an import-verification regime to help persuade Saudi
Arabia to ease its restrictions on goods going into the country, but the
flow of goods grew only slightly, and Yemenis struggled with increas-
ing hardship. To reduce civilian casualties from the bombing cam-
paign, U.S. officials developed “no strike” lists for Saudi pilots, but
there was a giant loophole: the lists applied only to preplanned strikes,
not to ones decided on while a pilot was in the air. As for the joint
planning cell in Riyadh, the personnel that the Pentagon assigned to

it tended to specialize in logistics and intelligence, not in techniques
for avoiding civilian harm during airstrikes. On top of that, most (if
not all) of them were seated away from the operations floor where
targeting decisions were made; they were either on a separate floor or
in a separate building. The State De-
partment eventually sent its own ex-
pert to work with the cell, but after a The United States greatly
spike in civilian casualties in August
2016, it reversed its decision, worried
underestimated the
that the adviser’s presence would give challenge it would face in
an American imprimatur to irrespon- curbing Saudi operations.
sible targeting practices.
Amid this blur of effort to contain
a worsening humanitarian disaster, what the United States did not do
was walk away. American planes continued to refuel Saudi jets on their
way to bomb Yemeni targets, without necessarily knowing what those
targets were. Washington provided intelligence, shipped weapons, and
sent contractors to help keep the Saudi air force flying. It did all of this
in part out of deference to the same interests that had led to its in-
volvement in the conflict in the first place, and in part because it con-
tinued to believe that its position at the coalition’s side allowed it to do
some good—steering the coalition away from even worse decisions
than it was already making and coaxing it to the negotiating table.
In its last six months, the Obama administration took a number of
steps that several former officials later said they wished it had taken
earlier. In August 2016, Secretary of State John Kerry pushed peace-
making efforts into high gear by moving away from the unrealistic
framework that had guided earlier diplomatic pushes. (A 2015 UN
Security Council resolution had insisted that the Houthis hand over
their heavy weapons and allow Hadi’s government to return to Sanaa
to rule; Kerry offered the Houthis and their allies a role in a power-
sharing arrangement in return for handing over weapons and terri-
tory.) After an October 2016 airstrike on a funeral hall in Sanaa killed
155 people, the Obama administration also rethought its approach to
arms sales to the Saudis. In December, it announced that it was halt-
ing a planned sale of precision-guided munitions.
It was too little, too late. For several months before this decision,
as the U.S. presidential election loomed, it had become harder for
March/April 2021 79
U.S. diplomats to motivate the Saudis to focus on the peace plan.

When Donald Trump won, it became impossible. The Saudis sus-
pected that the administration waiting in the wings would be both
more supportive of its anti-Iranian agenda and more willing to look
the other way on civilian casualties. The suspension of weapons sales,
for its part, barely stung. The Saudis correctly predicted that the
Trump administration would reverse it. By the time the Obama ad-
ministration started to toughen its approach somewhat, it was time to
pass the torch to its successor. The worst was yet to come.
A BLANK CHECK
The Trump administration saw the Middle East through very different
eyes. It shared the Saudis’ fixation on Iran, and Trump himself displayed
a particular affinity for strongmen in the mold of MBS. Although some
senior U.S. officials, such as Secretary of Defense James Mattis, had
little appetite for the conflict in Yemen, seeing no feasible military solu-
tion, the new administration’s priorities were clear, and they did not in-
clude peacemaking. The Trump team cared much more about making
Saudi Arabia an even bigger purchaser of American weapons and a part-
ner in a notional Israeli-Palestinian peace deal and turning Yemen into a
front in its “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran.
Under Trump, the U.S. approach to the war in Yemen zigged and
zagged. At first, attention to the peace process withered, as it was
left in the hands of subcabinet officials, while operational support
for the military campaign grew. The United States opened the taps
on sharing intelligence that enabled strikes on Houthi targets, and
in June 2017, the Trump administration unlocked the delivery of
arms that the Obama administration had suspended. Trump’s team
also sent mixed signals about whether it might approve of a renewed
attack on the port of Hodeidah—this time by land rather than sea—
something that the prior administration had said was categorically
unacceptable. In a particularly jarring act, in September 2018, Sec-
retary of State Mike Pompeo formally notified Congress that the
coalition was doing enough to protect civilians, a prerequisite for
continuing refueling operations, mere weeks after an errant Saudi
strike hit a school bus and killed 40 children.
U.S. policy took another turn after the Saudis murdered the
Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi at their consulate in Is-
tanbul in October 2018. With Congress outraged, the Trump ad-
ministration pushed for renewed peace talks between the Hadi

government and the Houthis. Thanks in part to personal outreach
by Mattis to members of the coalition, in December 2018, negotia-
tions took place outside Stockholm under the auspices of the UN.
These talks resulted in a cease-fire around Hodeidah and created
what might have been a foundation for a broader effort to reach
peace. But later that month, Mattis stepped down, and U.S. atten-
tion to the peace process once again waned.
As time passed, the confluence of an escalating conflict in Yemen
and intensifying U.S. pressure on Iran turned the war into an in-
creasingly central arena in a regional power struggle. On one side
were the United States and its regional partners, and on the other
were Iran and its allies. How much the Houthis depend on Iranian
support and to what extent their actions reflect Iranian desires have
been matters of intense debate. But two things seem clear: first, that
Iran saw the conflict from the start as a low-cost, high-reward oppor-
tunity to bog down and bleed its Saudi rival, and second, that as the
war has persisted, ties between the rebels and Tehran have deepened,
with the Houthis becoming progressively more willing to turn to
Iran for succor, whether in the form of training or material assistance.
Thanks in part to this support, the Houthis upped their drone and
missile attacks against Saudi territory. Iran itself seemed to jump
into the fray. In September 2019, a complex drone attack was carried
out against oil facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia. Although the
Houthis claimed responsibility, the sophistication of the strikes and
the flight paths of the drones suggested an Iranian hand. In part, the
attack was Iran’s way of responding to Washington’s maximum pres-
sure campaign and discouraging Gulf countries from participating in
it. The war in Yemen has given Iran both the motivation and the op-
portunity to flex its muscles, and it has obliged.
Over the course of 2020, Saudi Arabia recognized that the quick
war it envisaged had turned into a long slog, coming at a heavy cost,
both materially and reputationally. MBS has been keen to repair his
seriously damaged standing in Washington, which has suffered as a
result of the Khashoggi murder and the brutal campaign in Yemen.
In the wake of the drone attack on its oil facilities, Saudi Arabia re-
vitalized talks with the Houthis, and Riyadh has worked hard to
bring the fissiparous anti-Houthi bloc under a single umbrella. But
ending the war has proved far more difficult than launching it. As of
March/April 2021 81
January 2021, the Houthis had consolidated their control over north-
western Yemen, with 70 to 80 percent of the country’s people falling
under their rule, and were threatening the government stronghold of
Marib, near the northeastern corner of their zone of control. The rest
of the country is a political patchwork, variously dominated by gov-
ernment forces, sundry militias, and local authorities.
THE CASE FOR CARING

Joe Biden has signaled that the issues he will focus on as U.S. presi-
dent will be those with tangible domestic impacts: climate change,
the pandemic, China. Why, given his overflowing plate, should he
even care about solving the crisis in Yemen?
Three reasons stand out. First is the United States’ responsibility in
what has unfolded. Saudi Arabia almost certainly would have intervened
in Yemen even if the Obama administration had rejected its call for help,
and it may well have prosecuted its campaign with even less regard for
the laws of war absent the United States’ defective supervision. But
without U.S. support, Saudi Arabia would have found it harder to wage
war and, arguably, would have been more eager to find a way out. Wash-
ington has a responsibility to help clean up the mess it helped create.
Second is the sheer magnitude of Yemen’s humanitarian crisis.
According to UN statistics, as of mid-2020, some 24 million Yemenis,
80 percent of the country’s population, needed some form of assis-
tance. Roughly 20 million were teetering on the brink of starvation.
In November 2020, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned
that Yemen was “now in imminent danger of the worst famine the
world has seen for decades.” The conflict is not alone to blame—
Yemen was the region’s poorest country even before the conflict
began—but the collapse of the economy and the loss of access to or
the closure of airports and seaports, all byproducts of the war, are
primarily responsible.
Third is the potential for regional spillover. As long as the con-
flict endures, so does the risk that it could provoke a direct confron-
tation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. As a candidate, Biden
committed to steering the United States away from adventurism in
the Middle East. But such commitments can be difficult to keep at
moments of crisis. Should conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia
begin to escalate on the Arabian Peninsula, the Biden administra-
tion could come under enormous pressure to get involved, despite
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its better judgment. That risk alone should be reason enough for
Biden, at the beginning of his administration, to both disentangle
the United States from the conflict in Yemen and seek to end it.
There’s one big problem with this plan, however: it may not work.
GIVING PEACE A CHANCE

Biden faces a conundrum in Yemen. Senior members of his team,
including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security
Adviser Jake Sullivan, signed a letter in 2018 (which we also signed)
acknowledging the failure of the Obama administration’s Yemen
policy. As a candidate, Biden himself pledged to “end U.S. support
for the disastrous Saudi-led war in Yemen and order a reassessment
of our relationship with Saudi Arabia.” He has also vowed to rejoin
the nuclear deal with Iran. Those moves will inevitably raise ten-
sions with Saudi Arabia. Yet the Biden administration is also com-
mitted to ending the war in Yemen and negotiating a follow-on deal
with Iran on regional issues, steps that by definition will require
working closely with Riyadh. Further complicating matters, the ad-
ministration will have to somehow make sure that the Houthis, who
are likely to feel as buoyed by any reduction in U.S. backing for the
war effort as Saudi Arabia will feel forsaken, nonetheless come un-
der enough pressure to agree to a peace deal. Deft diplomatic jug-
gling will be needed for the United States to do several things at
once: step back from the war while helping end it, squeeze Saudi
Arabia but not overly alienate it, and engage directly with the
Houthis without excessively emboldening them.
Any U.S. official trying to navigate this terrain might construct the
following road map. First, Biden would reverse the Trump administra-
tion’s last-minute decision to designate the Houthis a terrorist organi-
zation. Far from creating leverage over the Houthis, as Trump officials
maintained, that move triggered sanctions that could have catastrophic
humanitarian implications and severely complicate diplomatic efforts.
Second, he would announce a halt to U.S. military assistance to the
Saudi war effort. To avoid estranging Riyadh to the point where it re-
fuses to cooperate, Washington would also reiterate its commitment to
help the kingdom and its partners defend their territorial integrity,
while making clear that this promise applies only to threats of a certain
magnitude. In Sullivan’s words, the goal should be “to balance anxiety
with reassurance.” The administration might also make clear that the
direction of bilateral relations would depend in large part on whether

the Saudis worked with it to come up with a practical way to end the
war. In parallel, Washington would intensify its support for the UN-led
peace process and perhaps name a U.S. special envoy for Yemen to that
end. Finally, on the margins of discussions with Iran over a mutual
return to the nuclear deal, the admin-
istration would press Tehran to con-
vince the Houthis to cease hostilities Among the items on the
and show flexibility in peace talks— new administration’s
not as a condition for rejoining the
deal but as a step that would lower
Middle East to-do list,
regional tensions and build trust. Yemen is one of those that
Among the items on the new ad- may be ripest for progress.
ministration’s Middle East to-do list,
Yemen is one of those that may be rip-
est for progress, although that is not the same thing as saying that the
effort will succeed. One likely problem involves calibrating how much
reassurance Washington should extend to Saudi Arabia and its part-
ners. History suggests that the very concept of reassurance invites trou-
ble. After all, that was the rationale that led the Obama administration
to support the Saudis’ campaign in the first place. As much as the Biden
administration should try to make clear what it is and isn’t willing to do,
with a shooting war underway, that exercise is sure to be fraught.
That is largely because it will be challenging to figure out which
elements of U.S. support for the Saudi-led campaign to continue
and which to halt. What constitutes defense, and what offense? On
what side of the line does interdicting arms shipments to the Houthis
fall? What about sharing intelligence that the Saudis could use to
target Houthi missile launch sites, or helping the Saudis maintain
their aircraft? The Houthis have crossed the border into Saudi Ara-
bia and control territory there. When Washington provides intelli-
gence or weapons to counter the Houthis, is it fulfilling its commitment
to defend Saudi Arabia’s territorial integrity or merely entangling
itself further in the war in Yemen? Deciding to end support for the
war in Yemen doesn’t answer these questions. It is just another way
of posing them. It is sobering to remember that Obama also sought
to draw such distinctions yet ended up getting sucked into a broader
fight anyway. But the Biden team at least has the benefit of seeing
what did not work for the Obama administration, and it can prepare
March/April 2021 85
itself to be far more restrained about the circumstances in which it

is prepared to lend assistance.
Moreover, however much the Saudis may cooperate on the peace
process, at this late date, it may prove insufficient. Obstacles to peace
abound. The Houthis will have to accept that given the resistance of
large portions of the Yemeni population, a viable deal will not simply
convert territorial realities into interna-
tional recognition of their rule. But
Ending the war may prove having been ascendant for the past two
to be beyond the new years, they are unlikely to show interest
administration’s influence. in compromise. Hadi will have to ac-
cept that his demands for a return to
Ending U.S. complicity power in Sanaa through a Houthi sur-
in it is not. render are wholly unrealistic. But the
embattled president has proved re-
markably stubborn, and he is likely to
see the formation of a new government as a sign that the tide is finally
turning in his favor. The United States and Iran, for their part, may
find themselves struggling to come to an accommodation on Yemen
even if they reach agreement on the nuclear deal. Although the end of
the maximum pressure campaign should diminish Iran’s incentive to
act aggressively in the Gulf, it might not be reason enough for the
country to seriously pressure the Houthis to compromise—something
it might not even be able to do anyway.
A final obstacle: Yemen is no longer the country it was when the war
began. As the conflict has ground on, power has become diffused across
a multitude of armed actors on the ground—not just the Houthis and
the Hadi government but also separatist forces in the south and militias
under the authority of Tareq Saleh, a nephew of Hadi’s predecessor.
The war now rages on multiple fronts, each with its own political dy-
namics and lines of command and control. Absent the buy-in of all
these actors, a peace settlement is unlikely to be sustainable. And get-
ting their buy-in will be difficult: many of the groups in Yemen have
developed economic incentives to prolong the conflict. Further compli-
cating matters, multiple regional players have taken an interest in back-
ing different groups on the ground.
The Biden administration should not allow these considerations to
dissuade it from making a major push for peace in Yemen. The stakes are
too high not to try. But the administration should also bear in mind that
whatever it does, it will have to be firm with Saudi Arabia about its deci-
sion to pull the United States back from most activities relating to the war,
however difficult that may be. Ending the war may prove to be beyond
the new administration’s influence. Ending U.S. complicity in it is not.
PREVENTING FUTURE YEMENS

The intractability of the war in Yemen should serve as a stark re-
minder of the costs of entering such conflicts to begin with. It should
also, then, compel the Biden administration to come to grips with a
crucial question: How can the United States avoid becoming com-
plicit in similar disasters?
A good place to start would be with the fundamentals of U.S. security
partnerships in the Gulf. Washington has given far-reaching assurances
that it will come to the defense of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states and
has arranged to place in their hands a large arsenal of American weapons,
sustained by American parts and personnel. Because of the way in which
these partnerships are structured, when one of these states chooses to
launch an unwise war, especially when there is a defensive rationale, the
United States will face a hard choice. Should it join the effort to dem-
onstrate fealty to its assurances and try to influence how its weapons are
used? Should it refuse to participate but continue to allow arms and
assistance to flow? Or should it cut off support and risk rupturing its
relations with a regional partner, recognizing that other would-be weap-
ons suppliers, such as China, Russia, or Turkey, might well step in?
These are the sorts of questions that ought to be examined in the
reassessment of U.S.-Saudi relations that Biden has promised. At the
heart of that review will be a calculation of which of two paths would
better serve U.S. interests. The United States could reaffirm its stead-
fast commitment to a long-standing partner, even if it risks drawing
the United States into future wars of precisely the sort that a growing
number of both Democratic and Republican leaders appear set on
avoiding. Alternatively, it could lessen that commitment in an effort
to reduce the danger of damaging entanglements, even if that means
loosening a bond long seen as key to protecting U.S. energy and se-
curity interests in the Gulf. If the balance of the risks leads the ad-
ministration down the second path, which seems the right one to us,
it will likely want to revise U.S. security assurances so as to provide
more room for maneuver in Yemen-like situations, which, although
serious, fall far short of an existential threat.
March/April 2021 87
The soul-searching should extend beyond the executive branch.

Congress has a role to play in preventing future Yemens, and indeed,
it appears to recognize as much. In 2019, both the House and the
Senate, outraged by the killing of Khashoggi, passed a resolution that
would have required the United States to withdraw from the hostili-
ties in Yemen, but Trump vetoed it. The bill invoked the 1973 War
Powers Resolution, which was designed to limit the executive branch’s
power to enter armed conflicts, but even if it had passed, it would
likely have been ignored by the administration because of the lati-
tude that the executive branch has given itself over the years to inter-
pret key terms in the 1973 resolution flexibly. If Congress wants to
play a bigger role in decisions about whether to involve the United
States in future misadventures, it will have to amend that act. In its
current form, the War Powers Resolution applies only to conflicts in
which U.S. troops are either giving or receiving fire, not ones in
which the United States is merely providing arms and advisers. Con-
gress should change the law so that a president must obtain ap-
proval—and periodic reapproval—if he or she wants the United
States to give support at levels that would effectively make it a party
to a conflict. A reform like this would do nothing if Congress were
more bellicose than the president, of course, but even so, it would be
wise if it took the consent of two branches of government, rather
than one, to enter a war. Such a change would make it less likely that
the United States would get drawn into quagmires in the first place
and more likely that it would correct course if it did.
The war in Yemen is a tragedy for its people, an enduring source
of instability for the region, and an open wound for the United
States. At this point, however it ends, it is unlikely to end well. At
the very least, the United States owes it to itself and to the victims
of the war to learn something from the disaster. That would be one
way in which the precedent in Yemen might do Washington and the
world some good: if it forced U.S. officials to candidly reexamine the
United States’ posture in the Gulf and recognize how easy it can be,
despite the best of intentions, to get pulled into a disaster.∂
2021-March-April-FA-Vtl-4C-FNL_Foreign Affairs 1/21/21 4:28 PM Page 1
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How the WTO
Changed China
The Mixed Legacy of
Economic Engagement
Yeling Tan
W
hen China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001,
the event was hailed as a pivotal development for the
global economic system and a bold marker of the coun-
try’s commitment to reform. It took 15 long years of negotiation to
reach the deal, a reflection of the challenge of reconciling China’s
communist command economy with global trading rules and of the
international community’s insistence that China sign on to ambitious
commitments and conditions. U.S. officials had high hopes that those
terms of entry would fix China on the path of market liberalization
and integrate the country into the global economic order. U.S. Presi-
dent Bill Clinton called Beijing’s accession to the WTO “the most sig-
nificant opportunity that we have had to create positive change in
China since the 1970s” and argued that it would “commit China to
play by the rules of the international trading system.”
Chinese President Jiang Zemin and Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji
evinced similar resolve in securing WTO membership. In their view,
joining the organization was not only appropriate for a country of Chi-
na’s size and economic potential; it would also force China to move
forward on necessary domestic reforms. Chinese state media noted at
the time that entry into the WTO would “expedite the process of Chi-
na’s reform and opening up”; spur the “cleaning up of laws, regulations,
and policies”; facilitate the establishment of an “impartial, efficient
YELING TAN is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Oregon and the
author of the forthcoming book Disaggregating China, Inc.: State Strategies in the Liberal
Economic Order.
judicial system”; and bring much-needed external competition to the

country’s inefficient state-owned enterprises (SOEs). China accepted
far more stringent terms than any other new member before or since.
These commitments included not just large cuts to tariffs on imports
into China but also a sweeping overhaul of domestic institutions and
policies to allow market forces freer rein within the economy. Beijing
pledged to improve the rule of law by strengthening courts and in-
creasing protections of intellectual property rights, to allow firms
greater autonomy and limit the government’s interference in their af-
fairs, and to revamp regulation to make governance more transparent.
Such commitments generated widespread anticipation that China’s
accession to the WTO would bring about major change and tie a rising
China more tightly to global economic networks and institutions. But
these hopes now seem like wishful thinking. In 2018, the office of Rob-
ert Lighthizer, the U.S. trade representative, proclaimed that the
United States had “erred in supporting China’s entry into the WTO,”
arguing that China’s “state-led, mercantilist trade regime” was “incom-
patible with the market-based approach expressly envisioned by WTO
members.” Kurt Campbell and Ely Ratner, two former Obama admin-
istration officials, claimed in these pages in 2018 that “the liberal inter-
national order has failed to lure or bind China as powerfully as
expected.” By most accounts, in Washington and more broadly, China’s
economic model has not turned toward market liberalism since 2001
but instead consolidated into a form of state capitalism that Beijing
hopes to export globally. WTO membership, the new consensus goes,
has allowed China access to the American and other global economies
without forcing it to truly change its behavior, with disastrous conse-
quences for workers and wages around the world. China seems to pay
lip service to international norms and still play by its own rules, taking
advantage of loopholes and naive policymakers abroad.
But if the hopes for China’s WTO accession were overblown, so is
this new consensus, which oversimplifies a complex story that holds
different lessons about the path of, and prospects for, China’s reform
and about the future of trade liberalization globally. China has surely
not followed the course envisioned by Clinton—or, for that matter,
that anticipated by Jiang and Zhu. But rather than judge China’s WTO
entry in the categorical terms of success or failure, a more productive
way forward would be to understand the ways in which WTO member-
ship did lead to positive change within China—and when and why that
March/April 2021 91
Yeling Tan
positive change started to slow and then reverse. Joining the WTO had
a stronger liberalizing effect in some parts of the Chinese state than in
others, and that liberalization was more forceful at some points in time
than at others. At least for a few years, China’s accession to the trade
body bolstered Chinese reformists and helped authorities push through
necessary changes, in the process showing that multilateral institutions
can boost domestic reform in China. But the impetus for reform wa-
vered, and other actors within China pushed in opposite directions,
steering the economy toward greater state control. It’s not impossible
to foster positive change in China, but it will be uneven, contested,
and require ongoing pressure and engagement from the outside.
THE SUM OF ITS PARTS

China first embarked on the path of reform under Deng Xiaoping in
1978, when the Chinese leader began to gradually open the economy
by decollectivizing agriculture. Beijing accelerated these market-
oriented reforms in the ensuing years, granting more leeway to pri-
vate enterprises, opening the door to foreign firms, and steadily
privatizing large SOEs. An economy that had become moribund in the
1970s was growing at a breakneck clip of nearly ten percent per year
by the late 1990s. But that story of rapid growth and incipient liberal-
ization concealed a much more complicated picture: China’s economy
consisted of a welter of different actors pursuing different, sometimes
contradictory interests. Accession to the WTO in 2001 was a fillip for
the country’s pro-market liberalizers, but many others evaded or re-
mained hostile to liberalizing reform.
The Chinese state is vast, sprawling, and highly decentralized,
especially when it comes to economic policy. The Chinese Commu-
nist Party (CCP) comprises about 90 million members, which would
make the organization larger than the 16th most populous country
in the world (the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which has a
population of around 89 million). Its members have a wide range of
backgrounds and views, from executives with international business
experience to dyed-in-the-wool apparatchiks who eagerly study the
ideals articulated by President Xi Jinping. The central government
oversees over 30 provinces, hundreds of cities, and thousands of
counties. As a result, Beijing has long struggled to coordinate, im-
plement, and enforce policies across the country. Subnational gov-
ernments enjoy broad discretion over how to run their local economies.
China makes, the world takes: sock textiles in Zhuji, China, February 2015
Governors and mayors compete with their neighbors to produce
ever-higher and more spectacular growth rates, and they enjoy enough
autonomy to selectively enact, creatively interpret, and even subvert
guidelines from Beijing.
When China was preparing to join the WTO, its system of eco-
nomic governance was decidedly mixed. Some actors within China’s
massive party-state advocated liberalization based on free-market
principles. Others supported a strategy akin to those adopted dec-
ades prior by Japan and South Korea, which involved offering finan-
cial incentives and instituting administrative measures to support
firms in industries deemed strategic. And still others counseled ad-
CHINA STRING E R N ETWO RK / REUTE RS
hering to China’s command economy.

The various actors within China’s large and complex economy had to
reckon with the seismic shift of entry into the WTO. Accession triggered
many significant changes and strengthened the hand of the country’s
reformists, who in the first few years following WTO entry implemented
large cuts to import tariffs, loosened rules around trading licenses to
introduce domestic private and foreign competition, shrank the state-
owned sector, and enhanced the functioning of market forces in the
economy. Beijing strengthened the rule of law and the protection of
March/April 2021 93
Yeling Tan
intellectual property rights to greatly improve the ease and predictabil-

ity of doing business in China and limit government interference.
The central government drove much of the resulting change, be-
cause it felt the pressure of adhering to WTO rules more keenly than
did provinces and cities lower down in the administrative hierarchy.
WTO membership spurred Beijing to undertake a formidable legisla-
tive and regulatory overhaul in order to bring domestic laws and
policies into compliance with the in-
ternational trading system. For exam-
Liberal reform in China ple, it amended its law regulating the
ran up against deep-seated quality of products, with the aim of
improving standards and strengthen-
bureaucratic resistance. ing the state’s ability to guard against
counterfeit and subpar goods. It re-
formed a commodity inspection law to create a common certification
process for foreign and domestic goods and put in place similar re-
forms for customs laws; rules governing pharmaceutical products;
and copyright, patent, and trademarks laws. It also overhauled na-
tional economic institutions to strengthen the state’s regulatory ca-
pacity, merging a number of agencies to eliminate overlap. The new
General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection, and
Quarantine (AQSIQ) took the lead in assessing over 21,000 domestic
technical standards, abolishing about 1,400 of them, and revising
over 9,000 others to bring the country’s standards regime into con-
formity with WTO rules.
The central government’s liberalizing efforts did not stop with le-
gal and institutional reforms. Beijing established research and advi-
sory centers in various parts of the country to provide guidance on
matters pertaining to WTO rules and procedures. Authorities launched
a national campaign through state media to raise awareness about the
consequences of the country’s joining the WTO and held training ses-
sions for government officials to help them navigate the complex proc-
ess of implementing the trade body’s rules.
This effort to set in motion greater market liberalization ran up
against deep-seated bureaucratic and industry resistance. Those in
the state-owned sector feared that foreign competition would crush
their businesses. The automotive industry had even petitioned Jiang
for greater protection when he was negotiating the entry deal. Pow-
erful industrial ministries within Beijing bristled at the idea that
international rules would now curb their autonomy to make policy.

The agricultural sector protested the opening up of China’s markets
to highly subsidized goods from developed countries.
Foreign businesses immediately benefited from the measures that
followed China’s accession. By 2003, roughly 70 percent of U.S. firms
surveyed in China reported that Chinese domestic reforms had im-
proved their business climate “to a great extent” or “to a very great
extent.” Those measures would not have occurred without the exter-
nal impetus of entry into the WTO. And they reflected the degree to
which China’s leaders had succeeded in using multilateral trade com-
mitments to drive forward difficult domestic changes.
But the actions of the central government tell only part of the
story. Subnational authorities, which escaped direct WTO scrutiny, did
not match Beijing’s commitment. China’s entry into the WTO re-
framed local economies, inviting foreign competition while creating
opportunities for commerce abroad. Regional governments had to
keep their economies growing while dealing with potential import
threats and pursuing potential export gains. Some local leaders re-
sponded by liberalizing their markets and facilitating more business-
friendly regulations, but many found ways to resist opening up and to
promote their own interests in other ways.
Anhui Province, for instance, issued an industrial policy in 2001 that
drew from South Korea’s success in automobile exports, targeting state
support to favored firms. Authorities in Shandong Province noted that
the territory should “seize the opportunity” created by WTO entry to
expand and develop its shipbuilding industry—which meant not liber-
alization but increased preferential credits and subsidies in order to ex-
pand exports out of the province. Other, smaller jurisdictions responded
to the threat of intensified competition with even more forceful inter-
ventions aimed at suppressing market forces, using administrative di-
rectives to reshape local businesses. The autonomous prefecture of
Yanbian, in northeastern China, for example, launched a restructuring
drive in 2003 to consolidate its cement industry. Rather than let the
market dictate which firms would thrive and which would die, the local
government picked winners and losers, taking away business licenses,
cutting off the electricity supply, and dismantling the machinery and
equipment of factories that were deemed to be too small or inefficient.
Accordingly, China’s entry into the WTO produced a wide range of
shifts, often in contradictory directions. It initially spurred sweeping
March/April 2021 95
Yeling Tan
efforts to liberalize the economy, reshape policies to accord with inter-

national rules, strengthen institutions to support the free market, and
reduce the role of direct state intervention—transforming China’s
economic landscape and vastly expanding the scope for private and
foreign enterprises to do business in China. But the country did not
move in lockstep toward liberalization. Subnational governments
adopted a plethora of strategies to pursue economic growth, many of
them in clear contrast to Beijing’s liberalizing agenda. A stark internal
divergence in China’s economic policies emerged, with some parts of
the state strengthening their commitment to market liberalization
and others following more statist paths.
China did fulfill the majority of the terms of its WTO accession
within a few years. Tariff rates on foreign imports were slashed, and a
multitude of nontariff barriers were eliminated. The authority to en-
gage in foreign trade, previously restricted to SOEs and foreign firms
located in special economic zones, was broadened to all firms, includ-
ing private Chinese enterprises. Beijing substantially improved legal
protections for and reduced administrative burdens on businesses.
Foreign investment surged once more into China, after having pla-
teaued during the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s.
THE STATE ADVANCES

Market-friendly reforms, however, would soon lose their luster for the
central government. Observers in China use the term guojin mintui, or
“the state advances, while the private sector retreats,” to describe the
central government’s slide starting around the middle of the first dec-
ade of this century toward greater state intervention in the economy.
Several domestic and external factors pushed China’s powerful central
government to embrace state capitalism. In the first few years after the
accession, pro-reform ministries in Beijing drove the agenda for mar-
ket liberalization, empowered by the mandate of China’s pledges to
the WTO. The Ministry of Commerce, China’s trade agency, led efforts
to harmonize China’s trading regime with international rules. AQSIQ,
the new quality-control agency, encouraged the adoption of interna-
tional standards and established a direct link with the WTO to manage
potential conflicts. These agencies further benefited from the leader-
ship of Jiang and Zhu, who were not just ideologically well disposed to
reform but also able to wrangle the country’s sprawling central bu-
reaucracy to keep the reforms on course. Under the two leaders, the
government instituted important macroeconomic reforms to recali-

brate revenue-sharing arrangements between the center and localities,
better control inflation, and improve central oversight of the banking
sector. And in a major administrative restructuring in 1998, Zhu had
slashed the central bureaucracy in half, from eight million to four mil-
lion people, and cut the number of central ministries from 40 to 29.
But as China fulfilled its WTO com-
mitments on schedule, pro-liberalization
forces lost momentum; swiftly meeting Dysfunction in the WTO
the terms of China’s accession had the dealt a blow to the cause of
effect of sapping the urgency of re- pro-market reform.
form. Without the outside pressure
that WTO entry first provided in 2001,
it was difficult for reformists in Beijing to keep up the push for greater
liberalization. Instead, rival agencies that oversaw industrial policy
gained the latitude to expand their influence.
This shift in bureaucratic power dovetailed with a change in lead-
ership in 2003 from Jiang and Zhu to President Hu Jintao and Pre-
mier Wen Jiabao. The leaders differed less in their essential views on
reform than in their abilities to control the state bureaucracy. Hu and
Wen did not have their predecessors’ political strength to discipline
the state. Wen, in particular, had spent the majority of his career
within the central government. He rose to the top with support from
networks deeply embedded in the Beijing bureaucracy. Although this
milieu might have given him some advantage in understanding the
inner workings of the central state, it also left him beholden to that
bureaucracy. Unlike Zhu, who was able to halve the size of the central
government in 1998, Wen’s attempt at administrative restructuring
in 2003 was relatively unsuccessful. Reports at the time indicated
that Wen planned to whittle down the number of ministries by as
many as seven, but he eventually axed only one central agency. In-
stead, agencies dedicated to industrial policy, such as the National
Development and Reform Commission, gained greater influence:
the NDRC became informally known as the “mini State Council.” In
2008, the newly created Ministry of Industry and Information Tech-
nology added to the central government’s increasingly activist role in
enacting statist industrial policies.
The cause of pro-market reform was dealt a further blow by the
failure of WTO members to agree to another comprehensive package
March/April 2021 97
Yeling Tan
for trade liberalization as part of the Doha Round of negotiations in

Geneva in 2006. The disagreement over farm subsidies and import
taxes underlined tensions within the trade body, and the ensuing im-
passe strengthened the hand of agencies in Beijing that oversaw in-
dustrial policy and did not subscribe to the market-friendly
imperatives of the WTO. Dysfunction in the trade body meant that
Chinese reformists could not repeat the success of 2001, lacking re-
newed external impetus for domestic liberalization.
The central government’s new policy trajectory started to become
clear in the 2006 iteration of the Five-Year Plan, China’s periodic
policy blueprint. It emphasized domestic innovation and reducing
China’s reliance on foreign technology, reaffirming the dominant role
of the state in the economy—and inevitably dispiriting foreign firms
doing business in China. According to the American Chamber of
Commerce in the People’s Republic of China’s annual surveys of its
members, positive sentiment among U.S. firms operating in China
fell to an all-time low in 2006.
The 2008 global economic crisis and its aftermath reinforced the
regime’s statist turn by setting the stage for greater government in-
tervention and laying bare the weaknesses of free-market capitalism.
China responded to the downturn with a $580 billion fiscal stimulus
and channeled the funds largely through SOEs and local govern-
ments. This spending strengthened the central state’s hand and
boosted the ideological justification for statism. While many wealthy
countries that had also enacted large fiscal stimulus programs soon
shifted back to economic austerity (and a diminished role for the
state), China continued on the path that it had embarked on before
the crisis, toward greater state control of the economy. The state-
owned sector had steadily shrunk in the years following China’s ac-
cession to the WTO. In 2001, 40 percent of all jobs in China were in
the state sector. That figure had fallen to 20 percent by 2008, but this
decline came to a halt in the years after 2008 and showed little change
up to the end of the Hu-Wen administration, in 2012. Between 2008
and 2012, assets managed by state firms rose from over 12 trillion
yuan to more than 25 trillion yuan.
Since Xi’s ascent to power in 2012, the state’s role in the economy
has only become stronger and more pronounced. Private investment
had for many years expanded at a faster pace than investment by state
entities, but this dynamic began to weaken after 2012, and it even re-
versed from 2015 to 2016. China has continued to pursue free trade in
its foreign relations, inking numerous deals with countries far and
near, but the political energy for domestic market reform has all but
disappeared. Recent years have seen the country’s SOEs become stronger
and larger than before, boosted by national policies that reaffirm the
dominant role of the state and the overarching supremacy of the CCP
over the economy. China’s overseas economic footprint has also ex-
panded significantly, most notably through Xi’s vast infrastructure
and investment program known as the Belt and Road Initiative, spark-
ing fears that China is seeking to export its brand of state capitalism
globally. Such fears, however, are overblown.
CONTAINING MULTITUDES
China may have dashed the hope that it would become a liberal free-
market economy, well integrated into the international economic sys-
tem. But even now, its model of state capitalism is not the juggernaut
that many make it out to be. In many respects, China still lives under
the shadow of its entry into the WTO. Ultimately, the Chinese system
is not likely to prove strong enough to completely resist the liberal-
izing effects of globalization or coordinated enough to effectively pur-
sue its ambitions on the global stage through its SOEs.
In some ways, WTO membership reinforced the central govern-
ment’s inability to prevent local governments from interpreting higher-
level directives to serve their own interests. WTO entry brought a new
surge of foreign capital into China, reducing the reliance of subna-
tional governments on funding from Beijing and providing them with
alternative resources to pursue their own goals—and the flexibility to
disregard dictates from the capital. For example, despite Beijing’s de-
sire to orient economic growth around increasing productivity, boost-
ing technological development, and training a more skilled workforce,
subnational governments have fixated on a quantitative approach to
growth that relies on capital investment and high-profile development
projects, undermining the overarching national effort. Instead of mak-
ing long-term investments to raise the productivity of firms and their
capacity for innovation, local officials seek out foreign direct invest-
ment to expand output for short-term gains, leading to projects that
duplicate the work of others and generate problems of excess capacity.
China’s policy on so-called new-energy vehicles (electric and hy-
brid cars) illustrates this divide. In 2012, the central government’s
March/April 2021 99
Yeling Tan
State Council issued an industrial policy on such vehicles that stressed

the importance of promoting innovation and explicitly warned local
governments against “blindly making low-quality investments and
duplicating construction.” But that same year, Hubei Province issued
its own policy, which ignored the central government’s focus on tech-
nological innovation and high-quality production and instead stressed
the need for “investment promotion” and “large-scale production” to
scale up the manufacturing of the vehicles. Nor was Hubei alone in
pushing for rapid expansion and disregarding the longer-term im-
perative of improving technological capacity. By 2017, the central gov-
ernment had to issue a new directive to curb the overinvestment of
local governments in the production of new-energy vehicles.
Similar conflicts plague China’s overseas economic ambitions. Al-
though some SOEs (particularly those in strategic sectors, such as
automobiles and shipping) have retained a more statist orientation
to trade, not all are faithful agents or reliable exemplars of state
capitalism. China’s entry into the WTO granted more foreign trading
rights to domestic private enterprises, lowered import barriers, and
allowed private companies greater freedom to operate. Once exposed
to foreign competition and global rules, many SOEs—especially those
participating in highly competitive sectors not protected by state
industrial policy—came to resemble more traditional commercial ac-
tors, responding to price signals in the same way as private firms. It
is not a given that China’s SOEs will act as agents of China’s overseas
economic statecraft. The extent to which an SOE might directly serve
Beijing’s interests is instead determined by a bevy of factors, includ-
ing the competitiveness or strategic importance of a particular sec-
tor, the degree to which the central government can monitor the
firm’s overseas behavior, and the specific political context of the
country in which the firm is operating.
WHAT NOT TO DO
Some Chinese state and nonstate actors see their interests as aligned
with international economic rules; others seek to exploit gaps in global
governance. Some dependably behave as operatives of Beijing,
whereas others actively subvert national policy in pursuit of their own
narrow interests. These dynamics have persisted even as Xi has sought
to consolidate CCP rule over many aspects of Chinese political, eco-
nomic, and social life. Despite Xi’s efforts, China’s global economic
posture remains mostly the product of the country’s messy internal

politics and not the result of a coordinated master plan.
This reality complicates matters for Washington and other govern-
ments. Given the multitude of actors and interests involved in Chi-
nese economic affairs, traditional state-to-state diplomacy, centered on
communications between national capitals, is necessary but insuffi-
cient. Substate actors, such as provinces and cities, wield substantial
authority over economic affairs. The actions of Chinese firms do not
necessarily represent the will of Beijing. Countries must therefore
take a multipronged approach to engage with China at different levels.
A policy of overt hostility that overlooks the diversity of interests driv-
ing China’s massive economy will end up being counterproductive.
Recent U.S. policy has demonstrated how not to encourage greater
market liberalization in China. The U.S.-Chinese trade war launched
by the administration of former President Donald Trump has created
conditions opposite to the ones that spurred market reform back in
2001. Washington levied unilateral tariffs, launched trade-dispute
cases, instituted export bans, and placed restrictions on foreign in-
vestment in the United States. The Trump administration framed re-
lations with China in terms of a zero-sum competition and even went
so far as to threaten the decoupling of the two countries’ giant (and
thoroughly enmeshed) economies.
Chinese leaders view these actions as part of a hostile U.S. strategy
to contain or undermine China’s rise. The confrontation has empow-
ered the nationalists and conservatives opposed to market liberaliza-
tion, who point to U.S. coercion as a reason to further protect China’s
high-tech manufacturing and secure the country’s supply chains. The
trade war has marginalized pro-reform officials who have called for
many of the changes to Chinese policy that the United States has
requested, such as the liberalization of the financial sector and the
loosening of rules around foreign investment. China’s reformists no
doubt have less clout than their more statist counterparts. But their
relative weakness has led them in the past to seek external leverage—
as reform-minded officials did during China’s WTO accession. This
dynamic is by no means restricted to trade. China’s banking regula-
tors, for instance, have drawn on frameworks put forward by the Ba-
sel Committee on Banking Supervision (an international committee
of central bankers) to overcome the resistance of state banks, SOEs,
and local governments to greater oversight of the banking system.
March/April 2021 101

Yeling Tan
U.S. policymakers should not abet the nationalists in China by fo-

cusing on threats and punishments. A broader strategy of engage-
ment that offers significant benefits in return for Chinese commitments
to further liberalization would provide domestic reformists with just
the sort of leverage they enjoyed in 2001. Initiatives backed by multi-
lateral institutions would have more legitimacy than would Washing-
ton’s unilateral demands. Today, segments of the Chinese political
elite remain open to adopting the high product standards and market-
oriented rules of multilateral trade arrangements. A number of cur-
rent and former Chinese officials have even spoken positively about
the prospect of China’s joining the Comprehensive and Progressive
Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free-trade deal, a step that
would benefit the United States (although it is not a party to the deal)
by bringing greater external oversight of problematic issues, such as
the governance of Chinese SOEs and foreign investment in China,
into the bilateral relationship.
The sweeping liberalization that China’s central government em-
barked on at the beginning of this century showed the positive ef-
fects of the country’s joining the WTO. But it was naive then to
expect China to fully open up its economy and integrate it into the
international trading system, just as it is simplistic now to think that
China has abandoned liberal reform for the more familiar comforts
of state capitalism. The Chinese economy is neither entirely mar-
ketized nor completely state-controlled, and any sensible China pol-
icy cannot treat the system as a monolith.∂
System Failure
America Needs a Global Health Policy
for the Pandemic Age
Ashish Jha
S
hared transnational challenges are supposed to bring the world
together. The COVID-19 pandemic, however, has done the op-
posite, exposing the shortcomings of the structures that govern
global health. At the start, countries scrambled in a free-for-all for
medical supplies. They imposed travel bans and tightly guarded data
about the novel disease. The World Health Organization (WHO), after
struggling to secure Chinese cooperation, became a scapegoat for
U.S. President Donald Trump, who announced that the United States
would withdraw from the international health body.
U.S. President Joe Biden, promising to break with Trump’s retreat
to vituperative nationalist politics, has signaled his intent to rejoin the
WHO and revive the United States’ leading role more broadly. As wel-
come as those steps are, the Biden administration cannot simply pick
up the mantle of U.S. leadership after it was discarded four years ago.
Even before Trump’s presidency, American primacy in global health
governance was ebbing. No one can turn back the clock to the bygone
era in which the United States set the agenda.
The great health challenges of the twentieth century—including
HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis—affected poor countries more
than wealthy ones. To address those diseases, the United States em-
braced a model of global health that resembled patronage, providing
aid to institutions and countries. Washington shaped the international
agenda through funding and its broad sway over multilateral health
organizations, chief among them the WHO. In the twenty-first century,
the United States has contributed about one-fifth of the WHO’s bud-
get, much of it earmarked for specific programs that have been high
ASHISH JHA is Dean of the Brown University School of Public Health.

Ashish Jha
priorities for Washington, including children’s health and infectious

diseases. Likewise, U.S. bilateral global health funding over the last 20
years—the United States spent $9 billion in 2020 alone—has given
Washington overweening influence over the health systems of recipi-
ent countries. The outsize U.S. role has made it hard for multilateral
organizations to function effectively without tacit U.S. support. No
doubt the money spent by the U.S. government has done tremendous
good, but it has also allowed the United States to unilaterally set inter-
national health priorities and define the metrics of success, sometimes
at the expense of what is actually needed on the ground.
But this model is now becoming obsolete. Unlike the health threats
of the last century, the COVID-19 pandemic has reached nearly every
corner of the globe. The United States cannot sit aloof from a troubled
world, dispensing its benevolence and largess; it, too, is caught up in
the crisis. At the same time, new networks and institutions, including
philanthropies, regional organizations, and private companies, now
play a major role in addressing global health challenges. Western re-
searchers once steered the development of best practices and scientific
knowledge in matters of public health; now scientists and organiza-
tions in the developing world wield influence, too. The technological
revolution has generated many forms of new data that promise to
transform the way governments and their health agencies work.
As a result, the governance of global health is becoming more de-
centralized, determined less by Washington’s prerogatives than by the
combined work of governments, nongovernmental organizations, and
private actors. In such a world, Washington must reimagine how it
can lead: instead of trying to define the agenda, it must work with
other governments, regional organizations, and the private sector to
put partnership at the center of its efforts to protect public health.
THE CENTER CANNOT HOLD

The U.S.-led global health order of the past did achieve major vic-
tories, with the high-water mark being the bid by the George W.
Bush administration in 2003 to end the HIV/AIDS epidemic through
the program known as the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Re-
lief (PEPFAR). Activists capitalized on the moral standing that the
United States had gained in the wake of the 9/11 attacks to build an
unprecedented coalition with conservative Christian policymakers.
They launched PEPFAR with an initial budget of $15 billion over five
System Failure
Their turn: testing COVID-19 samples in Nairobi, Kenya, April 2020

years. Since then, Congress has reauthorized the program every five
years. Having devoted to date over $95 billion, it remains the larg-
est commitment of any government in history to address a disease
and the largest commitment by the U.S. government to any cause
since the Marshall Plan. It has been enormously successful, prevent-
ing, by one estimate, 18 million deaths.
But even as PEPFAR marked a seminal achievement in U.S.-led global
health policy, it also pointed the way forward to a new world less dom-
inated by the United States. PEPFAR adopted multilateral approaches
from the outset, working with the UN and the Bill & Melinda Gates
Foundation to build the capacities of local health systems around the
world. In recent years, PEPFAR has focused its work on 13 countries, and
it intends to direct 70 percent of its future funding to partner organiza-
tions headquartered in poor countries, not in the capitals of the West.
BRIAN INGANGA / AP PHOTO
That change in emphasis is revealing of a broader shift. The United

States and the WHO no longer hold total sway over the governance of
global health. When the WHO was founded, in 1948, there were few
other organizations of its kind. But smaller, regional organizations
now help lead the way in a more interconnected world. The Pan Amer-
ican Health Organization, for example, has funded immunization ini-

Ashish Jha
tiatives and supported health education programs across Latin America.

And health agencies in South Korea and Vietnam have led far more
effective responses to the pandemic than their counterparts elsewhere.
Africa has seen perhaps the most dramatic progress in coordinating a
regional health policy. In 2017, the African Union’s members launched
the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. When an
Ebola disease outbreak began in the
Democratic Republic of the Congo in
In a world of increasingly 2018, the Africa CDC supported six labo-
diffuse power, no single ratories that conducted tens of thou-
sands of tests and trained thousands of
player can drive the global health-care workers. As the Ebola out-
health agenda. break was ending in 2020, the Africa
CDC shifted its focus to the COVID-19
pandemic, organizing the region’s re-
sponse and helping distribute medical supplies across Africa.
The Africa CDC has actively pushed back against the old Western-
centric model of global health. In April 2020, its director, John Nkenga-
song, refused to sanction a trial in Africa of a tuberculosis vaccine
that might offer protection against the novel coronavirus. A French
doctor had suggested in a televised discussion that such a vaccine
should be tested in Africa because the continent had “no masks,
treatment, or intensive care, a bit like we did in certain AIDS studies
or with prostitutes.” The doctor later apologized, but the implication
of Nkengasong’s refusal was clear: African countries, which have to
date managed the pandemic much better than the United States and
western European countries, will decide their own health priorities
and ensure that medical studies conducted in Africa are led by Afri-
can researchers in the interests of African peoples. Indeed, in No-
vember, 13 African countries launched the ANTICOV study, a joint
effort to devise treatments for mild to moderate cases of COVID-19 in
a bid to keep hospitalization rates down.
Meanwhile, in Geneva, the WHO has become an arena for geopo-
litical competition. As a membership organization, the WHO is vulner-
able to the power dynamics among its member states, and China and
the United States, in particular, have clashed over its decisions. The
WHO made the mistake of appeasing China after the outbreak of COVID-19
at the end of 2019, presumably in an effort to gain better access to
information about the progress of the disease. The WHO’s leaders
With chapters by:
James A. Baker III
Nancy Bearg
Jean Becker
Catherine Bertini
Edward Djerejian
Richard Haass
Carla Hills
Robert Kimmitt
James Kunder
Jane Lute
Dayton Maxwell
Andrew Natsios
Douglas Paal
Thomas Pickering
Condoleezza Rice
Dennis Ross
Horst Teltschik
Chase Untermeyer
Philip Zelikow
From the fall of the Soviet Union to the Gulf War, the
presidency of George H. W. Bush dealt with foreign policy
challenges that would cement the post-Cold War order
for a generation. This book brings together a distinguished
collection of foreign policy practitioners – career and political
– who participated in the unfolding of international events as
part the Bush administration to provide insider perspective by
the people charged with carrying them out.
bush.tamu.edu/scowcroft
Ashish Jha
applauded Beijing’s response to the virus and overlooked early mis-

steps and the withholding of critical data, sparking outrage in the
United States and elsewhere. China has played an increasingly large
role in global health in recent years, both through bilateral initia-
tives—its vast investment project known as the Belt and Road Initia-
tive includes health infrastructure projects around the world—and
through support for multilateral programs. A country of China’s size
must be engaged in these global efforts, but that engagement is most
effective in the service of shared values and a broad, international con-
sensus. Ironically, the U.S. decision a few months into the pandemic
to withdraw from the WHO only made it harder for the international
community to try to hold China accountable. The Trump administra-
tion’s abandonment of multilateralism played into China’s hands.
THE RISE OF THE PHILANTHROPISTS

Another powerful force remaking the governance of global health is
the growing role of private and nongovernmental actors. The launch
of the Gates Foundation in 2000 marked an important shift away
from a model of global health centered on government action. In its
first year of operation, the foundation spent $1.5 billion—orders of
magnitude more than what any other organization of its kind had ever
spent. The seismic impact of the Gates Foundation can be seen in a
massive increase in global health spending, including at the WHO: the
organization’s budget grew from less than $1 billion in 2000 to nearly
$6 billion in 2020. In 2018, the Gates Foundation was the second-
largest funder of the WHO, after the U.S. government. The Gates
Foundation has used its financial muscle to drive improvements in
vaccinations and other lifesaving therapies for the world’s poor. A
private philanthropic organization having this much influence repre-
sents a sea change in global health.
Beyond philanthropies, a new kind of public-private partnership
has arisen to address neglected problems at a time when many coun-
tries are struggling to provide basic health care to their citizens.
Indeed, the cost of developing effective measures to fight future pan-
demics is prohibitively high for any individual country, but all coun-
tries benefit from the preparations of one. In 2017, a collection of
private donors, pharmaceutical companies, and national governments
launched the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations. CEPI
directs resources to develop vaccines against highly contagious dis-
System Failure
eases. The group has helped address some of the biggest challenges in
pandemic preparedness, ones that were difficult for the WHO to tackle
on its own. CEPI has supported the development of vaccine plat-
forms—technologies that can be quickly adapted to create vaccines for
new diseases. It has sought to broker deals between private pharma-
ceutical companies and vulnerable nations to ensure greater access to
vaccines during outbreaks. In 2019, for instance, CEPI helped deploy
experimental Ebola vaccines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
In 2020, with the pandemic raging, CEPI collaborated with Gavi,
the Vaccine Alliance, a public-private global health partnership, and
the WHO to launch the COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access Facility, also
known as COVAX, an effort to distribute effective and safe vaccines to
countries otherwise unable to procure them. As of January 2021, COVAX
had over 180 participating countries—but not the United States,
which joined Belarus, Russia, and a handful of island states in declin-
ing to join the initiative. In keeping with Trump’s “America first”
foreign policy, this decision was one of several marking the adminis-
tration’s position of “vaccine nationalism,” in which Washington saw
the United States’ health interests as part of a zero-sum contest with
other countries. Under Trump, the United States stood mostly alone
in approaching vaccines for COVID-19 as a matter of purely national
importance. Meanwhile, the rest of the world—with China playing a
prominent role—has participated in multilateral initiatives to help
distribute COVID-19 vaccines.
Entities such as the Gates Foundation, CEPI, and COVAX have not
made the United States or the WHO irrelevant. Far from it. But in a
world of increasingly diffuse power, no single player can drive the global
health agenda. This is largely a good thing. And it provides the United
States an opportunity to engage as a partner—rather than as a patron—
encouraging collective action and countering parochial nationalism.
KNOWLEDGE IS POWER
As global health leadership has become decentralized and less reliant
on the West, so, too, has medical scholarship. Advocates for “decolo-
nizing global health” have long pointed to the disproportionate share
of Western authors featured in global health journals, studies, and re-
views; researchers and practitioners in poor countries that bear the
greater burden of disease are often sidelined. But times are changing.
Cutting-edge health and pharmaceutical research increasingly takes

Ashish Jha
place outside the West. Chinese scientists who studied in the United
States now run large, well-funded laboratories in China that are driv-
ing the next generation of scientific breakthroughs. Similar pioneering
work is taking place in Southeast Asia and, increasingly, South Asia. In
the years to come, African and Latin American scientists are poised to
join their counterparts elsewhere in driving research forward.
Non-Western researchers are more often leading global health
studies, particularly those presented in open-access publications—
scholarship available to all for free. A 2019 analysis of medical re-
search conducted in Africa—an area long dominated by Western
scholars—found that 93 percent of infectious disease studies had at
least one African author, and nearly half had an African lead author.
As education and scientific capacity in the developing world improve,
knowledge and best practices increasingly flow from poor countries to
wealthy ones, bucking old colonial dynamics.
Private enterprises have also helped reshape the public health land-
scape in developing countries. The health technology company Bao-
bab Circle, for instance, has introduced a popular app in sub-Saharan
Africa that allows users to track their exercise, diet, and mental health
and access online consultations with physicians. In Egypt, the startup
TakeStep helps recovering addicts through telemedicine, allowing
them to schedule appointments with counselors, psychiatrists, and cli-
nicians. The Ugandan startup Matibabu has pioneered a device that
can rapidly diagnose malarial infection (the cause of one million
deaths globally per year) without requiring a blood sample. In India,
Healthians delivers at-home tests for many diseases to rural commu-
nities that lack easy access to hospitals and clinics. Medicus AI, a com-
pany founded in Dubai, has designed an app that uses machine
learning and artificial intelligence to explain complex medical diagno-
ses through user-friendly visualizations and recommendations.
The proliferation of technology-driven startups of this kind points
to a new challenge in global health: managing the reams of health data
that governments, health-care providers, and private companies pro-
duce. How data are generated, governed, and ultimately used will be
the defining issue of global public health in the coming decades. Au-
thoritarian countries have already started monitoring and controlling
their populations by exploiting various data streams. Increasingly, mul-
tinational corporations are tapping into private data sources to build
sophisticated models that will allow them to identify and respond to
Ashish Jha
disease outbreaks. Yet government agencies in democratic countries

are struggling to determine how best to use these data without violat-
ing ethical standards and legal protections. Worried about privacy, they
have proved reluctant to utilize the data sets held by private compa-
nies. As a result, they have missed out on the huge potential for data-
driven approaches to public health, ceding the field to authoritarian
governments and private industry. For-
tunately, the coronavirus crisis may
The United States must compel a reevaluation of this approach,
adjust to being a partner as the contrast between the inadequacy
of conventional public health data
in a more decentralized streams and the effectiveness of the
global health system. tools available to autocratic regimes and
private parties becomes apparent.
Consider how China has responded
to the pandemic. In addition to imposing lockdowns more rigid than
those feasible in democratic countries, China deployed a surveillance
system that uses various relatively new technologies—including loca-
tion tracking, facial recognition, and QR codes that allow citizens ac-
cess to public spaces only if they aren’t sick. In the early stages of the
pandemic, for instance, the local government of Hangzhou introduced
an app that assigned users a color code to indicate their health status.
Only those with a green code—a clean bill of health—could enter
subways, malls, and other public spaces. The app was decidedly opaque
and invasive. Users, most of whom had not been tested for COVID-19,
had no idea how determinations about their health status were made,
and the app appeared to report users’ locations and other personal
information to the police. It was as if the Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention in the United States had used Facebook to track sus-
pected COVID-19 patients and then quietly shared their user informa-
tion with the local sheriff ’s office. However disconcerting this approach
was from a privacy perspective, it also allowed China to rapidly con-
tain the virus.
Many Western countries, by contrast, continue to struggle to do so,
in part because they are reluctant to resort to such invasive apps. The
United States has lagged behind its European peers in gathering and
sharing relevant data, including contact-tracing data and genomics
analysis, and only a handful of U.S. states have enabled mobile phone
contact-tracing capabilities. There are some signs of progress: the
System Failure
state of California has pioneered a COVID-19 exposure notification sys-

tem that safeguards privacy by protecting users’ identities and block-
ing their locations. Facebook and Google have developed powerful
tools for monitoring and responding to the pandemic, including com-
munity mobility data (analyzing anonymous data of the movements
of people in a community) and symptom maps (tracking users’ re-
ports of COVID-19 symptoms on social media). But the federal govern-
ment remains missing in action. If the United States does not lead the
implementation and mainstreaming of these technologies, the coun-
try will be forced to choose between meeting future health challenges
blindfolded and adopting approaches developed by authoritarian gov-
ernments that do not share U.S. constitutional values.
FROM PATRON TO PARTNER

After decades of setting the global health agenda and almost single-
handedly funding key global health goals, the United States must adjust
to being a partner in a broader, more decentralized system. This new
partnership model should be understood as the inevitable result of long-
term shifts, including the growing importance of private enterprise to
public health, the increased role of China as a global power, and the
decolonization of global health policy as more authority and resources
are afforded to poor countries. Washington should not simply dwell on
its lost standing and influence in the arena of global health governance.
Instead, it should enthusiastically play a central and constructive role in
this new order, working with a diverse set of partners to reform global
health in ways that are consistent with American values.
As a first order of business, the United States must renew its com-
mitment to the WHO. This does not mean that Washington should
refrain from criticizing the WHO; indeed, reform of the organization,
including encouraging the body to adopt a narrower, more focused
agenda and granting it greater budgetary discretion to respond to
emerging threats, must be a top priority of the Biden administration.
But criticism will be meaningless without credible assurance that the
United States will work to help the WHO succeed rather than simply
walk away when the going gets tough.
Some argue that the WHO has become obsolete in the increasingly
decentralized public health system, its consensus-based leadership
cumbersome by comparison to ad hoc associations of countries and
private entities. But in truth, the WHO is like a Rorschach test, with

Ashish Jha
each of its different constituents seeing in it a different agency that

should prioritize different goals. For wealthy countries, for example,
the WHO represents an opportunity to shape the global health agenda
and keep disease outbreaks at bay. For less wealthy countries, the WHO
is a lifeline, providing crucial technical assistance and helping eliminate
diseases such as polio. Too often, the WHO tries to be all things to all
countries, ensuring that it is effective in few of the objectives it pursues.
A clearer, more streamlined set of responsibilities would allow the
WHO to build stronger capacities to monitor infectious disease out-
breaks and share critical health data among countries. Having a more
coherent agenda would help the organization secure more stable fund-
ing. The WHO must do the things that only it can do, including setting
shared global health norms and targets and coordinating responses to
transnational health threats. Its leadership, with full input from its
member states, must ensure that such reforms aren’t merely cosmetic;
they must recast the WHO to meet modern challenges.
The United States should not make the WHO a battleground of
geopolitical competition with China; instead, it should encourage the
organization to adopt higher standards in several crucial areas, includ-
ing data transparency. New data streams are essential to building
modern surveillance systems for disease outbreaks. For instance, in
2020, using mobile phone data, investigators highlighted the role of
informal cross-border migration in the transmission of malaria in
Bangladesh. The WHO must recognize both the importance of these
kinds of data and the necessity to shape the norms around their use.
The body’s current approach relies on more traditional data sources
and methods of modeling disease that are inadequate to prepare for
current threats. Indeed, the assessments the WHO had made before
COVID-19 of various countries’ pandemic preparedness were often
completely wrong; some of the ostensibly best-prepared countries
(notably the United States) have had the worst responses to COVID-19.
Beyond the WHO, the United States should invest in the growing
diversity of the global health governance ecosystem by supporting
new public-private entities. It should help fill niche gaps by, for ex-
ample, supporting the Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics,
which develops diagnostic tests for diseases that may spark pandem-
ics, and allow the WHO to concentrate on a limited set of core compe-
tencies. Washington should expand its global health partnerships with
entities such as the Africa CDC to improve public health in the devel-
System Failure
oping world, promote American soft power, and strengthen the abil-
ity of poor countries to respond to disease outbreaks. A top priority
of U.S. global health investments must be building the capacity of
researchers and public health leaders in the developing world through
prepublication support (offering advice and technical assistance to re-
searchers), research partnerships, data sharing, and policy collabora-
tion as peers. And the United States must help ensure that the
information generated by the technological revolution, much of it in
private hands, can be used for the good of public health without in-
fringing on democratic values and individual rights.
In the twentieth century, global health challenges were rarely truly
global. Instead, they were typically confined to particular countries or
regions. But in the twenty-first century, threats to health affect the en-
tire world. The United States needs to recognize that the centralized
approach to global health that it dominated and the WHO managed is no
longer viable. The era of U.S. agenda setting may have ended, but that
only increases the importance of U.S. leadership. In years past, Ameri-
can priorities inevitably shaped global health; today, if the United
States wants future global health initiatives to reflect its values, it must
collaborate with others and seek to lead through partnership.∂

A New Conservatism
Freeing the Right From
Free-Market Orthodoxy
Oren Cass
T
he COVID-19 pandemic sent U.S. policymakers scurrying to
their bookshelves, searching for responses to a public health ca-
tastrophe that threatened to plunge households, businesses, and
governments into financial despair. Republicans on Capitol Hill and in
the White House flipped frantically through their dog-eared playbooks
from the 1980s to determine just the right tax cut for the moment. But
the chapter on society-wide lockdowns was nowhere to be found.
Many Republicans shrugged and proposed a tax cut anyway. Presi-
dent Donald Trump called for reducing the capital gains rate and joined
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in pushing for an expansion
of the corporate meals-and-entertainment deduction. Stephen Moore,
an economic adviser to Trump, argued for a payroll tax “deferral” that
even the U.S. Chamber of Commerce dismissed as “unworkable.” Two
months after the passage of the CARES Act, as the novel coronavirus
continued to rage, the Wall Street Journal editorial board questioned
whether more relief was necessary, suggesting instead that “every pri-
vate investment made for the rest of this year be exempt from any capi-
tal gains tax.” On the same morning that a six-column New York Times
headline blared, “MARKETS SPIRAL AS GLOBE SHUDDERS
OVER VIRUS,” Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who
served as U.S. ambassador to the UN, displayed the familiar instincts of
a future Republican presidential candidate by tweeting, “As we are deal-
ing with changes in our economy, tax cuts are always a good idea.”
The pandemic’s distinctness made for a distinctly inept response,
but this was only the latest iteration of a pattern that had imprinted
OREN CASS is Executive Director of American Compass and the author of The Once and
Future Worker: A Vision for the Renewal of Work in America. In 2012, he was Domestic Policy
Director for Mitt Romney's U.S. presidential campaign.
A New Conservatism
itself across the right-of-center in recent years. Even in the face of new
economic challenges—China’s aggressive mercantilism, the financial
crisis, rising inequality—the Republican Party has hewed rigidly to an
agenda of tax and spending cuts, deregulation, and free trade.
The descent into dogmatism is a time-honored tradition in Ameri-
can politics. What makes conservatism’s present bout peculiar, however,
is its lack of any discernible conservatism. The coalition of economic
libertarians, social conservatives, and foreign policy hawks that kicked
off the Reagan revolution, vanquished stagflation, and won the Cold
War is rightfully proud of its accomplishments. But that bargain—
whereby each camp took charge of its own portfolio—left wide swaths
of public policy in the hands of a small clique of market fundamental-
ists. They shared few values or intuitions with conservatives, who were
themselves consigned to talking about “social issues.” As conservative
economic thinking atrophied, libertarian ideas ossified into the market
fundamentalism that most commentators today casually call “conserva-
tive.” The result has been a political crisis, for conservatism especially
and for American government broadly. A right-of-center that is neither
conservative nor responsive to people’s problems is incapable of playing
its vital role as the outlet for a nation’s conservative impulses and the
counterweight to its progressive ones. Nor will it win many elections.
In his run for the White House, Trump exposed the weakness of
the Republican establishment and the frustration and alienation of its
voters. But he was no conservative. Indeed, he lacked any discernable
ideology or capacity for governing. He left the White House in dis-
grace, having also lost his party the House and the Senate, abdicated
all responsibility for leadership during the pandemic, and broken a
centuries-long tradition of outgoing presidents conceding defeat and
transferring power peacefully.
Now is the moment for conservatives to reassert their claim to the
right-of-center. In the United States and in the rest of the world,
serious problems created in part by the absence of a robust conserva-
tism require conservative solutions. Progressivism, meanwhile, is in-
creasingly obsessed with identity politics and the bugbears of its
overeducated elite. That makes it uniquely vulnerable to competition
from an ideological message focused on the worries shared by most
Americans, regardless of their race or religion, about the foundations
of their families and communities. In politics, the odds usually favor
incumbents, but the establishment that is flying conservatism’s ban-

Oren Cass
ner has lost its vitality and now hunkers down behind crumbling
walls, reciting stale pieties that few still believe. The circumstances
today suggest that a realignment around a multiethnic, working-class
conservatism might just have a chance.
THE TRUMP EARTHQUAKE

Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election was an extraordinary
aberration. Had Trump run in a typical primary, he would have strug-
gled to assemble a plurality of supporters. Had the opponent who fi-
nally emerged as his alternative been more popular with the
Republican Party leadership than Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, Trump
would likely have lost; compare how quickly Democrats rallied around
Joe Biden four years later when it appeared that Senator Bernie San-
ders of Vermont might actually secure their party’s nomination. In
the general election, had his opponent been a competent politician,
rather than Hillary Clinton, Trump would likely have lost. In the end,
Trump won the Electoral College in 2016 by the narrowest of margins
in several states and lost the popular vote decisively. Still, his success
exposed deep rot in the American political system. A well-functioning
party capable of serving its constituents does not allow itself to be
commandeered as the GOP was. A country with a responsive and ef-
fective political class does not elect a vulgar reality TV star to the
world’s most powerful office.
Trump’s heterodoxy and disruptiveness provided the equivalent
of an enormous natural experiment, and the results were surprising.
The problems Trump emphasized bore little resemblance to the
standard stories both parties thought they should tell, yet they
seemed to resonate with voters, even though he offered no solutions.
His remarkable gains among nonwhites, compared with Republi-
cans in prior election cycles, refuted many of the standard hypoth-
eses about identity politics and gestured toward the possibility of
the right-of-center consolidating a culturally conservative bloc across
races. What Trump did not provide was any foundation for a politi-
cal movement to build on.
Trump was not “conservative,” in style or substance, under any
meaningful definition of the word. But he didn’t seem to be anything
else, either. His background evinced no commitment to any set of
political principles, and his campaign’s message and agenda never
adopted one. With no intellectual framework, his administration’s
A New Conservatism
Party man: Trump at a rally in Des Moines, Iowa, October 2020

fortunes rose and fell on the highly variable quality of his appointees,
who often seemed to be working at cross-purposes. For each state-
ment, appointment, or policy action pushing in one direction, the
administration typically had another one pushing the other way. Un-
surprisingly, this proved to be an obstacle to both governance and
coalition building, and it provided a poor basis for a reelection cam-
paign. And yet, had the U.S. economy been booming in 2020 at the
prior year’s pace, rather than struggling against an unprecedented
public health crisis, Trump might easily have won a second term.
In the wake of Trump’s defeat, analysts have pondered whether
his brand of populism might represent the conservative future. But
this misunderstands his role. There is no discernible Trumpism in-
D OUG M I L L S / T H E N EW YO R K T I M ES
dependent of Trump himself. His presidency was an earthquake, the

immediate result of a political landscape shifting after decades of
mounting pressure. Earthquakes do not build anything. They dis-
rupt and destroy, but they are temporary, and they provide the ben-
efit of exposing structures that were sloppily built or that rested on
crumbled foundations. People who relied on the old structures will
rush in to put them right back up again. But after the earthquake
comes a chance to reassess, to learn from what failed, and to rebuild

Oren Cass
in a way better suited to contemporary conditions. The important

question to ask about the earthquake is not about the earthquake at
all. It is, What should we build now?
ESTABLISHMENT THINKING
The hallmark of conservativism is not, as is often thought, opposition
to change or the desire for a return to some earlier time. The miscon-
ception that conservatives lack substantive preferences and merely re-
flect their environments leads to some confusing conclusions—for
example, that the conservative of 1750 would oppose American inde-
pendence but the conservative of 1800 would support it, or that today’s
conservative must favor rapid globalization and deregulated financial
markets because that has been the recent tradition. What in fact distin-
guishes conservatives is their attention to the role that institutions and
norms play in people’s lives and in the process of governing. “When
the foundations of society are threatened,” wrote the political theorist
Samuel Huntington, “the conservative ideology reminds men of the
necessity of some institutions and the desirability of the existing ones.”
Edmund Burke, the father of modern conservatism, provided a
quintessential illustration of this dynamic. Although he was a mem-
ber of the British House of Commons, Burke supported the Ameri-
can Revolution in 1776 on the grounds that the United Kingdom,
through its overbearing administration and arbitrary taxation, had
irrevocably breached its relationship with the Colonies. He thought
the Americans could better continue in their tradition of self-government
if they freed themselves from King George III’s rule. Yet a decade
later, Burke reacted with horror to the French Revolution, in which
he saw a radical mob tearing away the guardrails and buttresses on
which society depended. In both assessments, of course, he was
proved entirely correct: the United States became a flourishing de-
mocracy, and France descended into chaos.
Burke was at once a “preserver of venerated traditions” and “a re-
former of failing institutions,” the conservative scholar Yuval Levin has
written. As Burke himself put it, “a disposition to preserve, and an
ability to improve, taken together, would be my standard of a states-
man.” This same disposition is easily identifiable in conservatives to-
day. The psychologist Jonathan Haidt, who has spent years testing
the foundations of people’s moral reasoning, has found that conserva-
tives tend to exhibit a much broader range of moral concerns, giving
A New Conservatism
fairly equal weight to care, liberty, fairness, loyalty, authority, and

sanctity. “They believe that people need external structures or con-
straints in order to behave well, cooperate, and thrive,” Haidt has writ-
ten. “These external constraints include laws, institutions, customs,
traditions, nations, and religions.” Liberals, by contrast, overwhelm-
ingly prioritize care, particularly care for victims of oppression. Liber-
tarians, for their part, are obsessed with
liberty to the exclusion of other values.
As a result, conservatism, more so Markets should never be
than other ideologies, sees progress as an end unto themselves.
a process of accumulation rather than
disruption, recognizing what is good in
society and striving to build on it. Conservatism approaches the proj-
ect of governing with particular humility, grateful for whatever order
a society’s traditions have managed to wrangle from imperfect human
nature. The problems it identifies and the solutions it proposes give
relatively less weight to guaranteeing individual freedom and choice
and more to reinforcing obligations and constraints, relationships
and norms, and the mediating institutions that shape and channel
people’s energies toward productive ends.
Viewed this way, the conservative affinity for markets should seem
natural. Markets limit the power of a central government and place it
instead in the hands of those best positioned to take care of their own
interests. They evolve over time in response to real-world conditions
rather than at the whim of a technocrat. They are themselves institu-
tions through which people develop informal codes and formal rules
to help themselves cooperate and transact more productively. An al-
liance with libertarians to promote markets was logical in the second
half of the twentieth century, during an era of great-power competi-
tion against communism and when the domestic market was choked
by an exploding bureaucracy and welfare state, a sclerotic system of
organized labor, confiscatory tax rates, and raging inflation.
Critically, however, a conservative skepticism of markets is equally
natural. Markets reduce people to their material interests and reduce
relationships to transactions. They prioritize efficiency to the exclu-
sion of resilience, sentiment, and tradition. Shorn of constraints, they
often reward the most socially corrosive behaviors and can quickly
undermine the foundations of a stable community—for instance,
pushing families to commit both parents to full-time market labor or

Oren Cass
strip-mining talent from across the nation and consolidating it in a

narrow set of cosmopolitan hubs. For conservatism, then, markets are
a valuable mechanism for sustaining and advancing a flourishing soci-
ety. But they should never be an end unto themselves. And their qual-
ity is contingent on the norms and rules by which they function and
the vitality of the other institutions operating alongside them.
Libertarians have no time for such nuance, and the purportedly
conservative establishment has paid it little heed, either. Senator
Pat Toomey, Republican of Pennsylvania, has defined capitalism as
“nothing more than economic freedom,” a sentiment echoed by
Haley, who has warned that any interference with that freedom
would head down “the slow path to socialism.” Jack Spencer, the
vice president of the Heritage Foundation’s Institute for Economic
Freedom and Opportunity, has suggested, “Why don’t we look at a
policy and just ask, Does it expand economic freedom?” The conser-
vative columnist Amity Shlaes has gone so far as to declare, “Mar-
kets do not fail us. We fail markets.”
The right-of-center’s preeminent public policy institutions display
these same blinders in their mission statements—or, rather, mission
statement, as they all seem to share the same one. The conservative
think-tank world is dedicated to advancing the principles of “limited
government, free enterprise, and individual liberty” (the Competi-
tive Enterprise Institute), or “free markets and limited, effective govern-
ment” (the R Street Institute), or “free enterprise, limited government,
individual freedom” (the Heritage Foundation), or “individual liberty,
limited government, free markets” (the Cato Institute), or “economic
choice and individual responsibility” (the Manhattan Institute), or
“individual, economic, and political freedom; private enterprise; and
representative government” (the Hoover Institution). What began as
entirely justified advocacy for the benefits of markets has mutated
into a fundamentalism that throws bad policy after good, unable to
distinguish between what markets can and cannot do and unwilling to
acknowledge the harm that they can cause. Fortunately, it comes with
an expiration date.
ANATOMY OF A FAILURE
It is telling that right-of-center coalitions across Western democracies
find themselves under pressure simultaneously. The backlash can be
seen in the United Kingdom, where Brexit rejected an antidemocratic
A New Conservatism
globalism; in eastern Europe, where the success of Poland’s Law and

Justice party and Hungary’s Fidesz has revitalized a Christian tradi-
tionalism; and in Spain, where the rise of Vox has given the world a rare
right-wing party with a labor union. The politics and circumstances of
course vary by country, but tremors from the same tectonic shifts that
set off the United States’ earthquake can be felt far and wide. Three
major trends seem responsible for the fall of the old orthodoxy, and all
point toward the promise of a conservative resurgence.
The first is a changing world. Few observations are more trite than
“the world changes,” yet analysts cling to outdated economic claims
with religious tenacity, as if each insight represents an eternal and
universal truth. Perhaps this is because economists, play-acting at
science, pretend that their models offer just that. Those models rely
on countless unstated assumptions about the world as it happens to
be, and they stop working when it becomes something else. Purvey-
ors of the myth that free trade is always good and more is always
better are eager to dismiss the havoc wreaked by the introduction of
China’s aggressive mercantilism into the global market as an outlier
or the exception that proves the rule. But economic models and pol-
icy recommendations are of little use if they cannot account for a near-
peer economy of 1.4 billion people dominated by the state-controlled
enterprises of a communist, authoritarian regime.
Another change in the world has been the unmooring of owner-
ship and management from the communities in which firms operate.
In The Theory of Moral Sentiments, the economist Adam Smith em-
phasized how societal expectations shape people’s incentives. A per-
son’s “desire of being what ought to be approved of,” he wrote, is
“necessary in order to render him anxious to be really fit” for society.
Such considerations for the traditional business owner lose their ef-
fect if he is replaced by a set of institutional investors or a consor-
tium of private equity funds on another continent deploying capital
held in trust by some government for workers’ pensions. In his sem-
inal case for the now prevalent doctrine of shareholder primacy, Mil-
ton Friedman, a leader of the Chicago school of economics,
disregarded Smith’s nuanced view of the prerequisites for a well-
functioning society and celebrated instead a world in which the de-
sires of owners “generally will be to make as much money as possible.”
If the character and constraints of capital ownership change, it should
not be surprising that outcomes do, too.

Oren Cass
The list goes on. Changes in cultural norms and expectations—

“what ought to be approved of,” in Smith’s formulation—should
cause policymakers to rethink economic assumptions. Instead, con-
servatives have developed the habit of saying, “that’s a cultural prob-
lem” as an excuse to do nothing, for instance, when growing numbers
of young men cannot find and hold steady jobs. Growth, invest-
ment, and what passes for innovation have become concentrated in
a technology sector that defaults to-
ward natural monopoly. Trillion-dollar
American politics, guided tax cuts seem not to spur capital
by the neoliberal consensus spending, and trillion-dollar deficits
between progressives seem not to raise interest rates. Play-
books published in the 1980s do not
and libertarians, has contain answers.
focused on a blinkered set The second trend responsible for
of moral concerns. the failing consensus is overreach. In
technocratic fantasies, careful regula-
tors fine-tune their policies, asymp-
totically approaching the ideal formula for delivering the best
outcomes. In practice, politicians and their advisers land on ideas
that seem to work and then push them ever further. A reduction in
too-high marginal tax rates rarely sates the appetite for tax cuts. Few
policymakers go partway on liberalizing the cross-border flow of
goods, people, and capital and conclude that the time has come to
stop. Likewise, issues that have been deemed undeserving of con-
cern do not receive attention at the first sign of trouble; they remain
ignored until they no longer can be. Even as risk built up in the
United States’ deregulated financial system, nothing was done until
after the 2008 meltdown.
Policies will tend to experience diminishing returns that eventu-
ally turn negative—until the case for changing direction becomes
undeniable. Even the best thinking contains within it the seeds of its
own undoing, with inevitable excesses driving a necessary cycle of
failure and reform. The West, now well into a postwar period filled
with extraordinary achievements, can double down on the solutions
of 40 or 60 years ago only so many times before going bust. Defusing
the hypernationalist tensions of the early twentieth century was wise;
proceeding to eviscerate solidarity within the nation-state was not.
Requiring pollution controls and considering the environmental im-
A New Conservatism
pacts of new projects made sense in the 1970s; tightening the ratchet
afterward until industrial investments faced prohibitive risks and
costs did not. Expanding the pipeline of talented students attending
college has always been a worthy aspiration; converting high schools
into college-prep academies is not.
The third factor undermining the old economic orthodoxy is its
failure to update its own rules. An analogy to sports is instructive. The
goal of a professional sports league is to entertain paying customers,
but the league does not accomplish this by directing how each player
moves around the field to create maximum drama. Instead, it estab-
lishes rules and trusts that players competing under those rules will
yield an entertaining product. The unpredictability of the outcome is
key to the spectators’ enjoyment. Likewise, the rules that the govern-
ment establishes for economic actors are designed to facilitate compe-
tition that will redound to the benefit of all. And because those actors
are free agents working within a system of rules, rather than perform-
ers following a script, they can respond creatively to changing condi-
tions. But no framework of rules is perfect. Designed based on how
the game is being played at the time, it works well at first. But the
athletes and teams evolve their own strategies in ways that the rule-
makers could not have anticipated. When competition fails to yield
the desired benefits, the leagues modify the rules—pushing back the
three-point line in basketball, lowering the pitcher’s mound in base-
ball, or adding the forward pass in football.
The same thing has happened in the U.S. economy, except that the
rule-makers haven’t kept up. Businesses and investors exploit ever
more obscure opportunities for efficiency, and their most successful
strategies tend to diverge from those that produce desirable results
for the nation. One such effect is the economy’s financialization,
which has directed an increasing share of talent, investment, and
profits toward firms that excel at speculative transactions rather than
productive contributions. Another is the labor market’s trend toward
workplaces in which many functions are outsourced and many em-
ployees are replaced with independent contractors, as firms maximize
their flexibility and profit margins by minimizing their attachments
and obligations to workers. Surging profitability may signal success
for the capitalist, but as Smith recognized in The Wealth of Nations,
the opposite holds true for capitalism. “The rate of profit does not,
like rent and wages, rise with the prosperity, and fall with the declen-

Oren Cass
sion, of the society,” he wrote. “On the contrary, it is naturally low in

rich, and high in poor countries, and it is always highest in the coun-
tries which are going fastest to ruin.”
A NEW APPROACH
These trends are the product not of too much conservative thinking
but of too little. American politics, guided by the neoliberal consensus
between progressives and libertarians, has focused on a blinkered set
of moral concerns and blindly pursued the unquestioned priorities of
personal freedom and consumption. No wonder the prevailing con-
sensus struggles to respond to the problems facing society today. Con-
servatism, however, is well suited to addressing them. Conservatives
have an appreciation for the nation-state, the rules and institutions
necessary to well-functioning markets, and the strength of the social
fabric. That starting point provides a better foundation for addressing
great-power competition with China, monopolies in the technology
sector, failing communities, and rising inequality than does the liber-
tarian faith in markets or the progressive reliance on redistribution.
Whereas progressives and libertarians both exhibit an inclination to
reason from abstract principles toward absolute commitments and
thus encourage overreach, the conservative begins by looking at real-
world conditions. Burke knew this well. “Circumstances . . . give in
reality to every political principle its distinguishing color and dis-
criminating effect,” he wrote. “The circumstances are what render
every civil and political scheme beneficial or noxious to mankind.”
Accepting the rule book’s inherent imperfection and striving to up-
date it over time as conditions change—that is the quintessential con-
servative approach to policymaking.
A conservative economics would recognize the power and value of
markets but insist on analyzing them within their human context
rather than as abstract engines of efficiency. For instance, it would
recognize the pernicious effects that high levels of economic inequal-
ity can have on the social fabric, the functioning of markets, and
people’s well-being, regardless of absolute material living standards.
It would give weight to the value of diffuse and widespread invest-
ment, not just the value of agglomeration. It would consider the
benefits that locally owned establishments bring to their communi-
ties, alongside the benefits that hyperefficient conglomerates can de-
liver. It would recognize the importance of nonmarket labor performed
A New Conservatism
within the household and the community, such as caretaking and vol-
unteering, rather than assuming that the higher monetary incomes in
a society of two-earner families must indicate progress.
Organized labor should be a conservative priority. The outdated U.S.
system is in terminal decline and in desperate need of reform, function-
ing more as a fundraising arm of the
Democratic Party than as an economic
force boosting workers’ fortunes. Union Organized labor should be
membership has fallen to six percent of a conservative priority.
the private-sector workforce. Conserva-
tives will find much to like in the con-
cept of a vibrant labor movement giving workers power in the job market,
representation in the workplace, and support in the community. Placing
workers on an even footing with firms so they can negotiate their terms
of employment boosts family incomes by emphasizing economic agency
and self-reliance rather than by resorting to redistribution. It allows them
to make tradeoffs tailored to their own preferences rather than depend
on government regulation to protect their interests. The union is also
the quintessential mediating institution, occupying a role in civil society
between atomized individuals, on one hand, and an encroaching state, on
the other, a force that can help people transition into the workforce and
between jobs, build solidarity among workers and relationships with em-
ployers, and even manage portions of the social safety net.
It is time for conservatives to rethink the public education system,
too, which has been commandeered for the task of transforming all
Americans into college-educated knowledge workers and does it quite
poorly. According to data from the Department of Education and the
Federal Reserve, barely one in five young Americans goes on from
high school to college, completes a degree on time, and then finds a job
requiring that degree. A better approach would ensure that schools
can meet students where they are and offer them pathways to produc-
tive lives in jobs they want and in which they can excel. High schools
would teach practical skills and partner with employers to offer work-
place experiences. Postsecondary programs would emphasize subsi-
dized employment and on-the-job training. Colleges would not operate
as amusement parks that deform the cultural expectations and eco-
nomic incentives of young people; instead, they would be recognized
as one path among many, present prospective students with their real
cost and thus represent an attractive option for some but not most.

Oren Cass
Conservatives are right to look skeptically at the ability of the gov-

ernment to supplant markets, but they must appreciate both what
markets do well and what they will not do on their own and thus
embrace the indispensable public role of channeling investment to-
ward long-term national priorities. This was long the American tradi-
tion. Indeed, it was a pillar of the “American System” of investment in
domestic industry and infrastructure proposed by Alexander Hamil-
ton, championed by Henry Clay, and endorsed by Abraham Lincoln,
a plan that helped transform the United States from a colonial back-
water into the leading global power. A modern equivalent would spon-
sor innovation, mandate domestic sourcing in critical supply chains,
and discourage the financial speculation that goes by the name “in-
vestment” but bears little resemblance to the work of building pro-
ductive capacity in the real economy.
A conservative coalition built around economic priorities such as
these, plus a merely nonradical set of cultural concerns, would attract a
broad range of voters. It would attract the core of the existing Republi-
can Party, which, as Trump proved, has much less interest in libertarian
platitudes than Beltway strategists assumed. It might equally appeal to
a large portion of the Democratic Party that is likewise culturally con-
servative; many Democratic voters aspire not to escape their families
and communities or rely on public benefits but rather to be productive
contributors in an economy that has a place for them. Unlike the naive
fantasies that presume that a centrism halfway between the parties’
existing commitments must surely be ideal, a multiethnic, working-
class conservatism could deliver a durable governing majority. It would
do so by rediscovering an entirely different set of commitments, one
that both parties’ elites have neglected for too long.∂
Time for a New Beginning
T
he official Arab-Israeli conflict has ended. Over the past sev-
eral months, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Su-
dan, and Morocco have normalized relations with Israel.
Oman may be on its way to doing so, and Saudi Arabia has taken
unprecedented steps in that direction. Other Arab governments main-
tain important, albeit discreet, ties with Israel, and further moves to-
ward normalization appear to be only a matter of time. Egypt and
Jordan have been at peace with Israel for decades.
The one-time pan-Arab call for a united front against Israel “from
the Atlantic Ocean to the Arabian Gulf” has given way to normalization
across that same expanse. The pace and extent of that shift have under-
mined the common Arab position reflected in the 2002 Arab Peace
Initiative. Rather than insisting on “land for peace” and offering nor-
malized ties only in return for a full Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 lines,
Arab governments have given precedence to self-interest: for Morocco,
U.S. recognition of its control over Western Sahara; for Sudan, the re-
moval of U.S. sanctions; for the UAE, access to advanced U.S. arms.
But if the state-to-state conflict has come to an end, Israel’s conflict
with the Palestinians has not. Redefining “peace” to conform to the
needs of Arab governments does not do away with the Palestinians or
resolve Israel’s Palestinian problem. Thirteen million Palestinians are
spread across the Holy Land and in exile. Nearly seven million of
them reside in the land between the Jordan River and the Mediter-
ranean. They are going nowhere.
HUSSEIN AGHA is a Senior Associate at St. Antony’s College, University of Oxford, and
has been involved in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations for more than three decades.
AHMAD SAMIH KHALIDI is a Senior Associate at St. Antony’s College, University of
Oxford, and was involved in post-Oslo Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.
They are co-authors of A Framework for a Palestinian National Security Doctrine and Track-II
Diplomacy: Lessons From the Middle East.

History does not support the contention that Israel’s peace with
the Arabs will inevitably open the door to peace with the Palestinians,
compelling them to submit to Israeli terms under the pressure of new
realities and isolation. The current Palestinian national movement
emerged precisely from the sense of defeat, solitude, and abandon-
ment by Arab governments that followed 1948. Dire as Palestinian
circumstances may be now, there are no signs of surrender.
For Israel, the wave of normalization means that there is little incen-
tive to make peace with the Palestinians. That will likely result in con-
solidation of the status quo in the short term. But a new landscape is in
the making, shaped by unprecedented Arab dealings with Israel, seeth-
ing Palestinian frustration, and a drift to the right in Israel, all of which
could eventually bring a new dynamic to the seemingly frozen situa-
tion. Bereft of effective Arab strategic depth—that is, the willingness
of Arab states to lend their backing to the Palestinian cause—the Pal-
estinians must now think hard about how to reorder their struggle, how
to address what has brought them to this point, and how to change it.
The Palestinians have been here before. Around ten years after the
nakba (Arabic for “catastrophe”) of 1948, a distraught group of Pales-
tinians disillusioned with the Arab states’ lack of seriousness in rally-
ing to their cause decided to take matters into their own hands. In
1964, the Palestine Liberation Organization was born, and it was taken
over by Yasir Arafat in 1969. What started with isolated armed opera-
tions helped forge the modern Palestinian national movement. The
PLO succeeded in bringing Palestinians together, asserting a separate
Palestinian political identity, forcing its cause onto the international
agenda, and returning some Palestinians to self-rule. But it failed to
end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, to establish an independent and
sovereign state, or to develop good governance for Palestinians. The
time has come for a new beginning.
THE FAILURE OF PALESTINIAN DIPLOMACY

The Palestinian leadership at first responded to the recent Arab nor-
malizations with Israel with public anger and charges that the Arab
states had stabbed the Palestinians in the back. But that initial criti-
cism has abated. It was bound to be hard to sustain, since the PLO, as
the representative of the Palestinian people, itself recognized Israel in
1988 and embarked on a “peace process” with it three decades ago.
The Palestinian leadership has also maintained security coordination
The struggle continues: Palestinians at a rally in Ramallah, November 2009

with Israel, undercutting its ability to object when others establish
security relationships of their own. Nor can the Palestinians simulta-
neously insist that their plight is the central Arab cause and that they
have the sole right to address it as they see fit. By regularly invoking
their national interests and their “independence of will,” as repeatedly
articulated in their political statements, the Palestinians have left
themselves with no defense against those who claim the right to an-
swer to their own sovereign will and forge their own path.
In short, Palestinian diplomacy has failed massively. It takes excep-
tional talent to transform an almost complete consensus among Arabs
and Muslims on the future of Palestine and Jerusalem into just an-
other matter on a packed Arab agenda.
MUHAMM E D MUH EIS EN / AP PHOTO
Partly as a consequence, the PLO has lost all credibility as a decision-

making or representative body. Its founding principles and its 1968
charter are of a bygone era, and they have been violated and tra-
duced by the Palestinians’ own official practice. The PLO’s political
program, based on the two-state solution, stands on pillars de-
nounced and decried by its own founding document, which rejects
the principle of the partition of Palestine on political and moral
grounds. The charter has not been formally revised or updated since

1996. Its ethos lingers in its suspended articles, disconnected from

practical politics.
The PLO was originally established as a forum for factional representa-
tion, but the factions it represents no longer mirror the political forces in
Palestinian society. The PLO’s quota system, which allocates seats to vari-
ous Palestinian factions according to their purported size, is an archaic
and distorted means of power sharing
and decision-making. Many of the fac-
For Israel, the wave of tions, such as those formerly sponsored
normalizations means that by Arab regimes, are now defunct, but
they still keep their seats. Hamas, the
there is little incentive effective ruler of Gaza, and other Is-
to make peace with the lamist factions are not represented. The
Palestinians. PLO may seek to respond to a strong
popular desire for unity, but its lan-
guage, comportment, and direction are
very much of the past. A new Palestinian beginning cannot start with the
same faces, beliefs, and mechanisms that have led to today’s dead end.
The PLO’s one-time virtue was that it gave the Palestinians a voice,
an address, and a forum for a genuine national debate. As the PLO’s
stature grew, it subsumed its divisions under a nominal national ru-
bric, with factions papering over their differences for the sake of
agreement on broader objectives. The organization’s leadership was
frequently criticized, but its legitimacy was never questioned or chal-
lenged. Yet the PLO has not adjusted its form and mission to meet the
goal of statehood. In both construction and function, it is beyond re-
form. The Palestinians need new tools of representation and political
action that reflect present realities and future prospects. That could
require a new constitutive assembly, with a mission, charter, and po-
litical program that speaks to all Palestinians and eschews the stale
language of the old PLO, a discourse imbued with the spirit of the mid-
twentieth century but with no currency in the twenty-first.
Since it was established by the 1993 Oslo agreements between Is-
rael and the PLO to govern Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza,
the Palestinian Authority (PA) has become the true political center of
gravity, with the PLO retaining a zombie form—a higher decision-
making body in theory, but marginalized in practice. Blurring the line
between the PA and the PLO and allowing the PA to take over most of
the PLO’s functions are actions that have impaired both. The PA should
be relegated to a purely administrative role, freed from the shackles of

high politics to manage Palestinians’ lives under its control and safe-
guard their welfare and security. A successor organization to the PLO
should serve as the representative and political address of the Pales-
tinians, free from the chores of civil duties and with a mandate to
speak and act on behalf of Palestinians everywhere. That was the
model envisioned by the Oslo agreements but never practiced. Ten-
sion between a new PA and a new PLO is to be expected, but the ben-
efits of clear lines of responsibility justify the challenge.
Another weakness of the Oslo process was that it sidelined the Pal-
estinians who live in the diaspora; for them, even the unlikely prospect
of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza does not offer real
redress, since it addresses neither their current security and welfare
nor their future aspirations. A new Palestinian beginning cannot be
based solely on the tunnel vision of a Ramallah-centered worldview. A
political program should offer a clear space and voice for those outside
the West Bank and Gaza by ensuring their fair representation in Pal-
estinian institutions and by building a new national agenda that recog-
nizes their predicament and reflects their needs. If efforts to end the
conflict are to be serious, they have to include the bulk of Palestinians.
PRISONERS OF DISCOURSE
True “independence of will” must begin with a clear position on what
is attainable as well as desirable—a revision of Palestinian priorities
and goals that goes beyond old slogans. To move forward, a substan-
tial recalibration of Palestinian aspirations is essential. The dream of
self-determination via statehood that would compensate for the pain
of exile and occupation is distant. The Palestinians cannot remain
hostage to the absence of a state, living in permanent limbo while
awaiting a salvation that is visibly retreating and may never arrive.
The national movement has understandably given precedence to
collective interests, but as a result, basic individual rights—the free-
dom to think, speak, work, live, move, and prosper—have been rele-
gated to the margins. Palestinian leaders must give much greater
consideration to such issues, particularly because the PA’s record has
hardly offered a seductive model of good government, better life, or
greater freedom. Hamas’s rule in Gaza (Hamas wrested control after
violent confrontations with the PA in June 2007) has had even less ap-
peal, bringing further suffering and impoverishment to, and a con-

tinuous corrosion of the quality of daily life for, the more than two
million Gazans. Palestinians in much of the near diaspora, such as
those living in Lebanon and Syria, face increasingly harsh conditions,
as well. Whatever Israel’s responsibility for the Palestinians’ plight,
the Palestinian leadership must bear its own share of responsibility
for its people’s safety and welfare.
Defining a new direction will be difficult. “Armed struggle,” upheld
in the PLO’s 1968 charter as the “sole means of liberation,” has long been
eschewed in favor of diplomacy, and the limitations of force have be-
come increasingly apparent even to Hamas. The PLO laments that nearly
three decades of endless negotiations have led nowhere, yet its only re-
course has been to seek a return to negotiations in the vain hope that
this time it may be different—that some new framework and the pas-
sage of time will yield the achievement of previously unachievable goals.
This hope has proved elusive, as each credible “peace” formula ends up
being a regression, offering less to the Palestinians than the one before.
Since the Palestinians agreed to accept a state on just part of their
national soil, the tragedy of Palestinian negotiations has been the total
indistinguishability of the Palestinians’ talking points and their real
positions: there is no daylight between what Palestinian representa-
tives say in public and what they demand at the negotiating table. By
contrast, their Israeli counterparts never reveal their real positions,
and they align their talking points with changing circumstances. By
failing to do the same, the Palestinians have put themselves in a posi-
tion in which nothing but agreement to all their terms could be ac-
ceptable, which has opened them up to charges of inflexibility and
intransigence. They appear to be unbending, since every new proposal
they issue is nearly the same as the last. Having made their most sig-
nificant concessions before a final deal, they have little left to give in
talks. The Palestinians thus find themselves in a trap from which there
is no escape, which makes true negotiations impossible; they are pris-
oners of their own discourse, reasserting the same points to no end.
The PLO has also repeatedly sought U.S. intervention, yet repeat-
edly decried the United States’ bias even as it pleaded for U.S. pres-
sure on Israel. Palestinian leaders chase after the United States without
accepting its policies, waiting for U.S. salvation while rejecting all
U.S. plans. Counting on European “initiatives,” in the hope that Eu-
ropean pressure will alter the U.S. position, has been a waste of valu-
able diplomatic time and energy. So has repeated anticipation of
positive change from a new U.S. administration or a new Israeli gov-

ernment. Whenever one U.S. president fails to match their expecta-
tions, the Palestinians shut down and wait in the hope that the next
one will be friendlier. The same applies to Israeli leaders; once a prime
minister is tested and found wanting, the wait starts for a successor.
The result is a repeated cycle of high hopes and dashed expectations
coupled with procrastination and paralysis.
ENDURING DELUSIONS
Palestinian leaders promised their people a path to freedom and em-
powerment. Yet in the last two decades, they developed a culture of
dependency rather than resourcefulness, an expectation of external sal-
vation rather than self-reliance. This sapped their will to build and de-
velop their society and stymied their willingness to explore new thinking.
Palestinians of the post-Oslo generation have lacked valid and vi-
able political outlets, torn between parroting worn-out slogans they
no longer believe in and waiting for overseas charity to bail them out.
National assertion and independence have given way to nagging, com-
plaining, sulking, and a sense of entitlement, with Palestinian leaders
frequently looking to outside powers for succor. This deterioration
has undermined and corrupted Palestinian politics, deflated popular
action, and encouraged political drift. It has also alienated foreign
supporters, who have become exasperated with Palestinian conduct.
International backing for the PA now stems less from any conviction in
its competence than from the belief that the governing body is the
best way to preserve relative quiet in the Holy Land.
The PLO’s default position is to appeal to international law, hoping
that the international community can or will act on its behalf. That
appeal has been one of the more enduring delusions of the Palestinian
leadership, ever since the struggle for international recognition re-
placed the presumption of revolutionary legitimacy and diplomacy
took the place of armed struggle. In reality, international law has not
been a dependable friend to the Palestinians (from the Balfour Decla-
ration in 1917 to the UN Partition Plan in 1947 to UN Security Council
Resolution 242 in 1967, the cornerstone of the peace process). While
it has lent the Palestinians a hand by recognizing their claim to terri-
tories occupied by Israel after the 1967 war and their right to state-
hood, and by serving as an increasingly fragile dam against Israeli
settlement and annexation policies, international law has made a dif-

ference only when the outside forces that purport to uphold it—espe-
cially the permanent members of the UN Security Council—are
prepared to in fact do so. There is not much evidence that this is the
case today, as illustrated by the absorption of Arab East Jerusalem into
Israel, U.S. recognition of Israeli sovereignty in the Golan Heights,
and now de facto annexation of much of what remains of Palestinian
lands. The value of international law is ultimately beholden to the
prevailing political environment and the stances of its major sponsors.
The Palestinians’ conflict with Israel is not a legal dispute. Inter-
national law has not helped solve conflicts in Crimea, Cyprus, Kash-
mir, Kosovo, or Nagorno-Karabakh. It was not international law that
compelled Israel to withdraw from the Sinai Peninsula, southern
Lebanon, or Gaza; it was a combination of power politics and diplo-
macy. Yet many Palestinians cling to an uninformed misapprehen-
sion of international law’s potency.
The Palestinians have further weakened their own position by taking
a misguided approach to negotiations. They have a history of rejecting
proposals and then going back to them in less auspicious circumstances,
and at greater cost. Palestinian leaders rejected the 1947 UN Partition
Plan for its iniquitous terms, but then accepted partition on signifi-
cantly less advantageous terms in 1988. They rejected Egyptian Presi-
dent Anwar al-Sadat’s proposal for Palestinian autonomy in 1977, but
then agreed to a more restricted interim authority at Oslo in 1993.
Taking a principled position may be laudable, but subsequent back-
tracking and the violation of those same principles under duress are bad
politics and detrimental to national morale. Instead of accruing credit
and strengthening their hand, the Palestinians have squandered current
assets with no guarantee of favorable future returns. Current realities
may require the Palestinians to go beyond outright rejection and focus
on achieving interim gains while exploring new possibilities for ad-
vancing their long-term goal of a state of their own. The normalization
deals between Israel and Arab countries, for example, might offer op-
portunities that could be leveraged to Palestinian advantage—such as
conditioning Saudi normalization with Israel on Israel’s ending its de
facto annexation of the West Bank through its settlement expansions.
Another tactic that has proved ineffective is the Palestinians’ pro-
pensity to threaten Israel with actions that they have no intention of
pursuing and are raising merely as a bugaboo to pressure Israel to offer
some concession; repeated claims that the PA will end security coop-
eration with Israel, or that it is ready to hand over the keys and return
the West Bank to direct Israeli occupation (with all the ensuing mate-
rial and moral costs), have lost all credibility with Israel and the Pales-
tinian public alike. The threat to resort to a “one-state solution” appears
equally vacuous and has the added disadvantage of confirming Israeli
concerns about the PLO’s commitment to a two-state solution.
FIRST PRINCIPLES
Even with the advent of the Biden administration, a serious new push
for negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians seems un-
likely unless the two sides can show that this time it will be different.
Unfortunately, the PA and the PLO seem to believe that they can return
to the old formula, based on UN resolutions and the 1967 lines as the
“terms of reference,” with sponsorship and endorsement by an inter-
national conference.
But other actors see other paths forward. One view holds that side-
lining the Palestinians and advancing normalization between Israel
and Arab states will push the Palestinians to eventually compromise
on their demands for fear of being left behind and denied what re-
mains of their diminishing prospects. Another view hopes that the
combined weight of the Arab normalizers could allow for the launch-
ing of a more credible and robust diplomatic process that involves the
Palestinians and provides them with a stronger bargaining hand. A
group that includes, along with the Palestinians, the Gulf Arab states,
Egypt, and Jordan would evidently enjoy greater sway with both Is-
rael and the United States than the Palestinians do on their own, the
thinking goes. The first view assumes that the Palestinians would join
burgeoning regional peace efforts out of desperation; the second, that
they would join out of the hope for new opportunities.
Both views may contain a grain of truth. Yet any future negotia-
tions would need to take some hitherto overlooked first principles
into account. One of the Oslo accords’ most egregious failures was to
treat the conflict as a purely bilateral affair that could be solved with a
deal between the Israelis and the Palestinians alone. The West Bank’s
future cannot be determined in isolation from Jordan and Jordanian
interests; history, politics, demographics, and geography dictate that
the Oslo agenda on security, borders, refugees, and the status of Jeru-
salem is as vital a concern for Jordan as for Israel and the Palestinians.
Similarly, Egypt was the caretaker administration in Gaza for two

decades after 1948, and Gaza’s fate—given its history, location, and
population—cannot be determined without Cairo’s consent.
New Egyptian and Jordanian roles can be effective supplements at a
time when the Palestinians on their own have been unable to secure
their land from further Israeli encroachment. Jordan’s gravitational pull
on the West Bank remains strong. West Bankers’ tendency to see Am-
man as their social, political, and economic metropolis has only grown
with the withering of the Palestinian national movement. Egypt’s sway
over Gaza has also persisted, as is evident in Cairo’s role as the media-
tor between Israel and Hamas. Egypt continues to have a strategic and
political interest in Gaza, notably as it relates to the security of Sinai.
With Palestinians already a majority in Jordan, significant constitu-
encies there regard attempts to drag Amman into the future of the West
Bank as efforts to undermine Hashemite rule. But Jordan has a very
limited range of options for dealing with the open sore of an indefinite
conflict on its border, which is a threat to its own security and stability.
An ever-expanding Israeli presence and chronic Israeli-Palestinian vio-
lence will prove more costly if Jordan opts to stay out of efforts to reach
a solution. Amman cannot afford to disregard its security responsibili-
ties on the eastern border of a future Palestinian state; it might be more
willing to engage if doing so could draw significant moral, political, and
financial backing from Arab states normalizing relations with Israel.
Egypt is similarly likely to be reluctant to take on any responsibility
for the over two million Palestinians in Gaza, many of whom have Is-
lamist tendencies and a history of activism and resistance. But an open-
ended Hamas problem and concerns about security in Sinai may convince
Egypt to agree to a role that would allow it more control over events in
Gaza. Like Jordan, Egypt cannot shirk its security responsibilities. Cairo
has always had a historical interest in the interplay among the Palestin-
ian territories, Jordan, and Israel and in retaining a significant presence
in the Levant. Gaza will remain a point of access into that sphere, one
that Egypt’s aspirations to a regional role do not allow it to ignore.
The Gaza–West Bank divide presents a further impediment to Pal-
estinian aspirations. It has driven a broad transnational movement into
the increasingly insular and rival bubbles of Hamas-controlled Gaza
and PA-governed Ramallah. The fruitless attempts at reconciliation be-
tween Hamas and the PLO have consolidated a schism that has become
as problematic as the Israeli-Palestinian divide. Without a genuine re-
connection between the two regions, the putative Palestinian entity
will further shrink, and the prospects of containing Hamas will recede.
The schism undermines the legitimacy of the entire Palestinian politi-
cal system, severely compromising the PLO’s claim to be the sole Pales-
tinian representative. Despite recurrent calls to hold elections and
agree on a common national program, neither Hamas nor Fatah, the
two dominant Palestinian political
forces, has offered a convincing answer
as to how to end the rift. And even if The Palestinian scene is
elections do take place, as Palestinian ripe for a jolt of self-
President Mahmoud Abbas recently
decreed, they will serve only to legiti- realization and
mize an ailing political system, not to empowerment.
facilitate a genuine transfer of power:
neither side is prepared to hand over
power to the other, making elections little more than a sham.
Negotiations would also have to contend with the fundamental dis-
connect between Israeli and Palestinian political language and under-
standings of crucial issues. Security is a prime example. The Palestinian
view of security is narrow, local, and tactical; the Israeli view is broad,
regional, and strategic. When the two sides discuss security issues, they
talk on different planes; the Palestinians focus on threats to individuals,
whereas Israeli concerns relate to powerful states and organizations.
Abbas, known as Abu Mazen, has tried, unsuccessfully, to address
the disconnect. He is the last of the Palestinian founding fathers and
also the first significant Palestinian national leader in modern history
to openly and unreservedly abjure violence and to commit to diplo-
macy and peaceful means as the sole path to a resolution of the con-
flict. Despite their faults, the Oslo accords would not have been
possible without his determined stewardship; neither would the rela-
tive quiet of the past 15 years. His contribution has not been appro-
priately valued by either Israel or the United States. In return for his
transformation of Palestinian discourse and actions, Abu Mazen col-
lected sweet words, empty promises, and financial crumbs. By failing
to reach a deal with him, Israel sacrificed long-term strategic gains for
short-term tactical considerations.
For now, Abu Mazen’s resolute opposition to violence has been
absorbed by the Palestinian majority. Besides Hamas and Palestinian
Islamic Jihad, no significant Palestinian faction, popular movement,
or potential successor espouses “armed struggle” today or calls for its

return. Abu Mazen managed, almost unaided and against formidable

odds, to expunge what he considered to be a destructive belief from
the mainstream Palestinian political lexicon and from mainstream
Palestinian conduct. In the absence of an equitable resolution, Abu
Mazen’s legacy may yet be questioned and reconsidered by his own
people, and its effects may erode over time.
In the process, however, the PA has to many Palestinians come to
resemble a subcontractor to Israeli occupation, charged with suppress-
ing militant opposition to Israel in the areas under its control. That
image has undermined the PA’s credibility and legitimacy and helped
nourish a sense of disillusionment with the state-building exercise.
The PA leadership made little attempt to explain the rationale behind
agreeing to security coordination with Israel, and it got little in return
in the way of reciprocity. That security cooperation has also dulled the
Israelis’ sense of urgency and helped sideline Palestinian core con-
cerns by seemingly giving precedence to protecting Israelis as op-
posed to Palestinians. The upshot is that Israel has tolerated a strategic
threat in return for instant individual safety. As long as there are no
Israeli casualties as a result of Palestinian action, Israel can forgo ad-
dressing the Palestinian need for a long-term solution that will deliver
a more stable and sound security structure for both sides.
Even with adjustments to the approach, it is questionable whether a
return to negotiations will produce an end to the conflict. Barring some
unforeseen radical shift or traumatic event that compels a compromise
that can bridge what has so far been unbridgeable, there is little reason
to think that future talks will succeed. The most likely result is an ex-
tension of the status quo, with uncertain and unexpected consequences:
the slow absorption of Palestinians into the Israeli political orbit, inter-
communal violence, new cooperative ventures and exchanges across an
obliterated Green Line. Any or all of those could redesign the map and
consolidate a one-state reality with no separation between Arabs and
Jews in the Holy Land. For some Israelis and Palestinians, this may be
a source of comfort; for others, it would be an existential hazard.
THE NEW STRUGGLE

The struggle for an independent state has centered on Palestinian
sovereignty as the antidote to decades of dispossession and occupation.
But the prospects of securing “hard” sovereignty, based on nineteenth-
century notions of the nation-state, with full and complete control
over land, borders, and resources, are remote. There is nothing to sug-
gest that Israel’s terms will change to accommodate such Palestinian
expectations. Harsh as this conclusion may seem, the Palestinians’
choice may be between clinging to the self-defeating chimera of hard
sovereignty, thereby compromising any chances of release from their
predicament, and adopting softer versions, as in the case of member
states of the European Union, that may offer a way out, although at a
cost to what they have so far set up as a national prerogative. Under
soft sovereignty, border security arrangements would need to be tri-
lateral in both the West Bank (Jordanian, Israeli, and Palestinian) and
Gaza (Egyptian, Israeli, and Palestinian). The exact terms of such
tradeoffs may be navigable, but the precondition is an adjustment in
political discourse that has yet to be embraced by the Palestinian po-
litical elite.
It is plain that the Palestinians need a new approach—one founded
on a reconsidered strategic vision and recalibrated aspirations. The
new way forward must consider a new constitutive assembly that will
represent and involve more Palestinians, giving voice to those who
have been ignored or marginalized, and prioritize Palestinian welfare
and security. It must reorder relations between a new PA and a new
PLO and resolve the Gaza–West Bank divide. It must develop new
ideas of individual and collective rights, encourage free internal de-
bate and dialogue, and espouse a culture of tolerance. It must recog-
nize that salvation comes from within while reexamining relations
with the United States, leveraging the Arab normalization processes
to Palestinian advantage, and involving Egypt and Jordan in any new
talks. It must redefine the Palestinian notion of sovereignty, review
Palestinian views of security, and refrain from shirking responsibility
or indulging in threats that are not credible.
This moment is reminiscent of the early days of the PLO. The Pal-
estinian scene is ripe for another jolt of self-realization and empower-
ment, the nature of which is yet to be determined. But as long as the
Palestinians are neither pacified nor fairly accommodated, their cause
will continue to burn, and the prospects for genuine peace and stabil-
ity will remain elusive.∂

The Innovation Wars
America’s Eroding Technological
Advantage
S
ince the early days of the Cold War, the United States has led
the world in technology. Over the course of the so-called
American century, the country conquered space, spearheaded
the Internet, and brought the world the iPhone. In recent years,
however, China has undertaken an impressive effort to claim the
mantle of technological leadership, investing hundreds of billions of
dollars in robotics, artificial intelligence, microelectronics, green en-
ergy, and much more. Washington has tended to view Beijing’s mas-
sive technology investments primarily in military terms, but defense
capabilities are merely one aspect of great-power competition to-
day—little more than table stakes. Beijing is playing a more sophis-
ticated game, using technological innovation as a way of advancing
its goals without having to resort to war. Chinese companies are
selling 5G wireless infrastructure around the world, harnessing syn-
thetic biology to bolster food supplies, and racing to build smaller
and faster microchips, all in a bid to grow China’s power.
In the face of China’s technological drive, U.S. policymakers have
called for greater government action to protect the United States’
lead. Much of the conventional wisdom is sensible: boost R & D
spending, ease visa restrictions and develop more domestic talent,
and build new partnerships with industry at home and with friends
and allies abroad. But the real problem for the United States is much
deeper: a flawed understanding of which technologies matter and of
how to foster their development. As national security assumes new
CHRISTOPHER DARBY is CEO of IQT, a not-for-profit investment firm working on behalf of
the U.S. national security community.
SARAH SEWALL is Executive Vice President for Policy at IQT. From 2014 to 2017, she was
U.S. Undersecretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights.
The Innovation Wars
dimensions and great-power competition moves into different do-

mains, the government’s thinking and policies have not kept pace.
Nor is the private sector on its own likely to meet every technologi-
cal need that bears on the country’s security.
In such an environment, Washington needs to broaden its hori-
zons and support a wider range of technologies. It needs to back not
only those technologies that have obvious military applications, such
as hypersonic flight, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence,
but also those traditionally thought of as civilian in nature, such as
microelectronics and biotechnology. Washington also needs to help
vital nonmilitary technologies make the transition to commercial
success, stepping in with financing where the private sector will not.
AMERICA’S INNOVATION CHALLENGE

In the early decades of the Cold War, the United States spent billions
of dollars dramatically expanding its scientific infrastructure. The
Atomic Energy Commission, formed in 1946, assumed responsibility
for the wartime labs that had pioneered nuclear weapons, such as the
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the headquarters of the Manhattan
Project, and went on to fund academic research centers, such as the
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The Department of De-
fense, founded in 1947, was given its own massive research budget, as
was the National Science Foundation, established in 1950. After the
Soviets launched the Sputnik satellite, in 1957, Washington created
the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, or NASA, to win
the space race, as well as what would become the Defense Advanced
Research Projects Agency, which was tasked with preventing a future
technological surprise. By 1964, research and development accounted
for 17 percent of all discretionary federal spending.
Partnering closely with academia and companies, the government
funded a large variety of basic research—that is, research without a
specific end use in mind. The goal was to build a technological founda-
tion, defined primarily as conventional and nuclear defense capabilities,
to ensure the country’s security. The research proved astonishingly suc-
cessful. Government investment spawned cutting-edge capabilities
that undergirded the United States’ military superiority, from super-
sonic jets to nuclear-powered submarines to guided missiles. The pri-
vate sector, for its part, got to capitalize on the underlying intellectual
property, turning capabilities into products and products into compa-

nies. GPS-enabled technologies, airbags, lithium batteries, touchscreens,

voice recognition—all got their start thanks to government investment.
Yet over time, the government lost its lead in innovation. In 1964,
the U.S. government was spending 1.86 percent of GDP on R & D,
but by 1994, that share had fallen to 0.83 percent. During that same
period, U.S. corporate R & D investment as a percentage of GDP
nearly doubled. The numbers tell
only half the story. Whereas much of
Over time, the U.S. the government’s R & D investment
government lost its lead was aimed at finding new, game-
in innovation. changing discoveries, corporate R & D
was mostly devoted to incremental
innovation. The formula for growing
revenue, the private sector realized, was to expand on existing prod-
ucts, adding functionality or making something faster, smaller, or
more energy efficient. Companies focused on nearer-term technolo-
gies with commercial promise, rather than broad areas of inquiry that
might take decades to bear fruit.
Increasingly, the most innovative R & D was taking place not in the
labs of large corporations but at nimbler, privately funded startups,
where venture capital investors were willing to tolerate more risk.
Modern venture capital firms—partnerships that invest in early-stage
companies—first arose in the 1970s, leading to early successes such as
Apple and Microsoft, but it wasn’t until the dot-com bubble of the
1990s that this style of investment really took off. If the first phase of
R & D outsourcing was from government labs to corporate America,
this was the second phase: away from big businesses and toward small
startups. Large companies began to spend less on internal R & D and
more on what they called “corporate development,” or acquiring
smaller, venture-backed companies with promising technologies.
The rise of venture capitalism created a great deal of wealth, but it
didn’t necessarily further U.S. interests. Venture capital firms were
judged by their ability to generate outsize returns within a ten-year win-
dow. That made them less interested in things such as microelectronics,
a capital-intensive sector where profitability arrives in decades more so
than years, and more interested in software companies, which need less
capital to get going. The problem is that the companies receiving the
most venture capital funding have been less likely to pursue national
security priorities. When the American venture capital firm Accel hit
The Innovation Wars
the jackpot by investing early in Rovio Entertainment, the Finnish video

game company behind the mobile app Angry Birds, it may have been a
triumph for the firm, but in no way did it further U.S. interests.
Meanwhile, government funding of research continued its decline
relative both to GDP and to R & D spending in the private sector. The
Department of Defense retained the single biggest pot of federal
research funding, but there was less money overall, and it became
more dispersed across various agencies and departments, each pursu-
ing its own priorities in the absence of a national strategy. As the best
researchers were lured to the private sector, the government’s in-
house scientific expertise atrophied. Once close relationships be-
tween private companies and Washington also suffered, as the federal
government was no longer a major customer for many of the most
innovative firms. U.S. agencies were rarely the first to buy advanced
technology, and smaller startups generally lacked the lobbyists and
lawyers needed to sell it to them anyway.
Globalization also drove a wedge between corporations and the
government. The American market came to look less dominant in an
international context, with the huge Chinese consumer market exert-
ing a particularly powerful pull. Corporations now had to think of
how their actions might look to customers outside the United States.
Apple, for example, famously refused to unlock iPhones for the FBI,
a decision that probably enhanced its brand internationally.
Further complicating matters, innovation itself was upending the tra-
ditional understanding of national security technology. More and more,
technology was becoming “dual use,” meaning that both the civilian and
the military sectors relied on it. That created new vulnerabilities, such as
concerns about the security of microelectronic supply chains and tele-
communications networks. Yet even though civilian technologies were
increasingly relevant for national security, the U.S. government wasn’t
responsible for them. The private sector was, and it was innovating at a
rapid clip with which the government could barely keep pace. Taken to-
gether, all these trends have led to a concerning state of affairs: the inter-
ests of the private sector and the government are further apart than ever.
THE CHINESE JUGGERNAUT

The changes in American innovation would matter less if the world
had remained unipolar. Instead, they occurred alongside the rise of a
geopolitical rival. Over the past two decades, China has evolved from

a country that largely steals and imitates technology to one that now
also improves and even pioneers it. This is no accident; it is the result
of the state’s deliberate, long-term focus. China has invested mas-
sively in R & D, with its share of global technology spending grow-
ing from under five percent in 2000 to over 23 percent in 2020. If
current trends continue, China is expected to overtake the United
States in such spending by 2025.
Central to China’s drive has been
Washington has monitored a strategy of “military-civil fusion,” a
coordinated effort to ensure cooper-
China’s technological ation between the private sector and
progress through a the defense industry. At the na-
military lens. tional, provincial, and local levels,
the state backs the efforts of military
organizations, state-owned enterprises,
and private companies and entrepreneurs. Support might come in
the form of research grants, shared data, government-backed loans,
or training programs. It might even be as simple as the provision of
land or office space; the government is creating whole new cities
dedicated solely to innovation.
China’s investment in 5G technology shows how the process
works in practice. Equipment for 5G makes up the backbone of a
country’s cellular network infrastructure, and the Chinese company
Huawei has emerged as a world leader in engineering and selling
it—offering high-quality products at a lower price than its Finnish
and South Korean competitors. The company has been buoyed by
massive state support—by The Wall Street Journal’s count, some $75
billion in tax breaks, grants, loans, and discounts on land. Huawei
has also benefited from China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which pro-
vides generous loans to countries and Chinese companies to finance
infrastructure construction.
Massive state investments in artificial intelligence have also paid
off. Chinese researchers now publish more scientific papers in that
field than American ones do. Part of this success is the result of fund-
ing, but something else plays a big role: access to enormous amounts
of data. Beijing has fueled the rise of powerhouse companies that
sweep up endless information about their users. These include Alibaba,
an e-commerce giant; Tencent, which developed the all-purpose
WeChat app; Baidu, which began as a search engine but now offers a
The Innovation Wars
range of online products; DJI, which dominates the consumer drone

market; and SenseTime, which provides facial recognition technol-
ogy for China’s video surveillance network and is said to be the world’s
most valuable artificial intelligence company. As a matter of law, these
companies are required to cooperate with the state for intelligence
purposes, a broad mandate that is almost certainly used to force com-
panies to share data for many other reasons.
That information increasingly involves people living outside China.
Chinese companies have woven a global web of data-gathering apps
that collect foreigners’ private information about their finances, their
search history, their location, and more. Those who make a mobile pay-
ment through a Chinese app, for example, could have their personal
data routed through Shanghai and added to China’s growing trove of
knowledge about foreign nationals. Such information no doubt makes
it easier for the Chinese government to track, say, an indebted Western
bureaucrat who could be convinced to spy for Beijing or a Tibetan ac-
tivist who has taken refuge abroad.
China’s hunger for data extends to some of the most personal in-
formation imaginable: our own DNA. Since the COVID-19 pandemic
began, BGI—a Chinese genome-sequencing company that began as a
government-funded research group—has broken ground on some 50 new
laboratories abroad designed to help governments test for the virus.
China has legitimate reasons to build these labs, but it also has an ugly
record of forcibly collecting DNA data from Tibetans and Uighurs as
part of its efforts to monitor these minorities. Given that BGI runs
China’s national library of genomics data, it is conceivable that through
BGI testing, foreigners’ biological data might end up in that repository.
Indeed, China has shown great interest in biotechnology, even if it
has yet to catch up to the United States. Combined with massive com-
puting power and artificial intelligence, innovations in biotechnology
could help solve some of humanity’s most vexing challenges, from
disease and famine to energy production and climate change. Re-
searchers have mastered the gene-editing tool CRISPR, allowing them
to grow wheat that resists disease, and have managed to encode video
in the DNA of bacteria, raising the possibility of a new, cost-effective
method of data storage. Specialists in synthetic biology have invented
a new way of producing nylon—with genetically engineered microor-
ganisms instead of petrochemicals. The economic implications of the
coming biotechnology revolution are staggering: the McKinsey Global

Institute has estimated the value of biotechnology’s many potential

applications at up to $4 trillion over the next ten to 20 years.
Like all powerful technologies, however, biotechnology has a dark
side. It is not inconceivable, for example, that some malicious actor
could create a biological weapon that targeted a specific ethnic group.
On controversial questions—such as how much manipulation of the
human genome is acceptable—countries will accept different degrees
of risk in the name of progress and take different ethical positions. The
country that leads biotechnology’s development will be the one that
most profoundly shapes the norms and standards around its use. And
there is reason to worry if that country is China. In 2018, the Chinese
scientist He Jiankui genetically engineered the DNA of twin babies,
prompting an international uproar. Beijing portrayed him as a rogue
researcher and punished him. Yet the Chinese government’s disdain for
human rights, coupled with its quest for technological supremacy, sug-
gests that it could embrace a lax, even dangerous approach to bioethics.
THINKING BIGGER
Washington has monitored China’s technological progress through a
military lens, worrying about how it contributes to Chinese defense
capabilities. But the challenge is much broader. China’s push for tech-
nological supremacy is not simply aimed at gaining a battlefield ad-
vantage; Beijing is changing the battlefield itself. Although commercial
technologies such as 5G, artificial intelligence, quantum computing,
and biotechnology will undoubtedly have military applications, China
envisions a world of great-power competition in which no shots need
to be fired. Technological supremacy promises the ability to dominate
the civilian infrastructure on which others depend, providing enor-
mous influence. That is a major motivation behind Beijing’s support
for high-tech civilian infrastructure exports. The countries buying
Chinese systems may think they are merely receiving electric grids,
health-care technology, or online payment systems, but in reality,
they may also be placing critical national infrastructure and citizens’
data in Beijing’s hands. Such exports are China’s Trojan horse.
Despite the changing nature of geopolitical competition, the
United States still tends to equate security with traditional defense
capabilities. Consider microelectronics. They are critical components
not only for a range of commercial products but also for virtually
every major defense system, from aircraft to warships. Because they
The Innovation Wars
will power advances in artificial intelligence, they will also shape the
United States’ future economic competitiveness. Yet investment in
microelectronics has fallen through the cracks. Neither the private
sector nor the government is adequately funding innovation—the
former due to the large capital requirements and long time horizons
involved and the latter because it has focused more on securing cur-
rent supplies than on innovating. Although China has had a hard
time catching up to the United States in this area, it is only a matter
of time before it moves up the microelectronics value chain.
Another casualty of the United States’ overly narrow conception
of security and innovation is 5G technology. By dominating this
market, China has built a global telecommunications network that
can serve geopolitical purposes. One fear is that Beijing could help
itself to data running on 5G networks. Another is the possibility that
China might sabotage or disrupt adversaries’ communications net-
works in a crisis. Most U.S. policymakers failed to predict the threat
posed by Chinese 5G infrastructure. It wasn’t until 2019 that Wash-
ington sounded the alarm about Huawei, but by then, there was little
it could do. U.S. companies had never offered an end-to-end wireless
network, instead focusing on manufacturing individual components,
such as handsets and routers. Nor had any developed its own radio
access network, a system for sending signals across network devices
that is needed to build an end-to-end 5G system like that offered by
Huawei and a few other companies. As a result, the United States
found itself in an absurd situation: threatening to end intelligence
cooperation if close allies adopted Huawei’s 5G technology without
having an attractive alternative to offer.
Digital infrastructure may be today’s battle, but biotechnology will
likely be the next. Unfortunately, it, too, is not considered a priority
within the U.S. government. The Department of Defense has under-
standably shown little interest in it. Part of the explanation for that lies
in the fact that the United States, like many other countries, has signed
a treaty renouncing biological weapons. Still, biotechnology has other
implications for the Pentagon, from changing manufacturing to improv-
ing the health of service personnel. More important, any comprehensive
assessment of the national interest must recognize biotechnology’s im-
plications for ethics, the economy, health, and planetary survival.
Because so many of the gaps in U.S. innovation can be traced back
to a narrow view of the national interest and which technologies are

needed to support it, the Biden administration’s first step should be

to expand that understanding. Officials need to appreciate both the
threats and the opportunities of the latest technologies: the havoc
that could be wreaked by a paralyzed 5G network or unscrupulous
genetic engineering, as well as the benefits that could come from
sustainable energy sources and better and more efficient health care.
The Biden administration’s second step should be to create a process
for aligning government investments with national priorities. Today,
federal funding is skewed toward military capabilities. This reflects a
political reality: the Pentagon is the rare part of the government that
reliably receives bipartisan budgetary support. Fighter jets and missile
defense, for example, are well funded, whereas pandemic preparedness
and clean energy get short shrift. But setting the right national techno-
logical priorities raises questions that can be answered only by making
judgments about the full range of national needs. What are the most
important problems that technology can help solve? Which technolo-
gies have the power to solve only one problem, and which might solve
multiple problems? Getting the answers to such questions right requires
taking a truly national perspective. The current method doesn’t do so.
A properly run process would begin with what national security
professionals call a “net assessment”—in this case, an analysis of the
state of global technological progress and market trends to give poli-
cymakers the information necessary to work from a shared baseline.
To be actionable, the process would establish a handful of near- and
long-term priorities. A compelling candidate for long-term invest-
ment, for instance, might be microelectronics, which are foundations
for both military and civilian innovation but have difficulty attracting
private investment dollars. Another long-term priority might be bio-
technology, given its importance for the economy and the future of
humanity. As for short-term priorities, the U.S. government might
consider launching an international effort to combat disinformation
operations or to promote 5G innovation. Whatever the specific pri-
orities chosen, the important thing is that they be deliberate and clear,
guiding the United States’ decisions and signaling its aspirations.
A MARKET MINDSET
Supporting those priorities is another matter altogether. The current
approach—with the government funding only limited research and the
private sector taking care of commercializing the results—isn’t work-
The Innovation Wars
ing. Too much government-funded research remains locked in the lab,

unable to make the leap to commercial viability. Worse, when it man-
ages to leave U.S. government labs, it often ends up in foreign hands,
depriving the United States of taxpayer-financed intellectual property.
The U.S. government will need to take a more active role in help-
ing research make it to the market. Many universities have created
offices that focus on commercializing academic research, but most
federal research institutions have not. That must change. In the same
spirit, the U.S. government should develop so-called sandboxes—
public-private research facilities where industry, the academy, and
the government can work together. In 2014, Congress did just that
when it established Manufacturing USA, a network of facilities that
conduct research into advanced manufacturing technologies. A simi-
lar initiative for microelectronics has been proposed, and there is no
reason not to create additional sandboxes in other areas, too.
The U.S. government could also help with commercialization by
building national data sets for research purposes, along with improved
privacy protections to reassure the people whose information ends up
in them. Such data sets would be particularly useful in accelerating
progress in the field of artificial intelligence, which feeds off massive
quantities of data—something that only the government and a handful
of big technology companies currently possess. Success in synthetic
biology, along with wider medical research, will also depend on data.
Thus, the U.S. government should increase the quantity and diversity
of the data in the National Institutes of Health’s genome library and
curate and label that information so that it can be used more easily.
All this help with commercialization will be for naught, however, if
the startups with the most promising technologies for national security
cannot attract enough capital. Some of them run into difficulties at the
early and late stages of growth: in the beginning, they have a hard time
courting investors willing to make high-risk bets, and later on, when
they are ready to expand, they find it difficult to attract investors will-
ing to write large checks. To fill the gaps at both stages, the U.S.
government needs its own investment vehicles.
We work at the parent company of In-Q-Tel, which offers a prom-
ising model for early-stage investment. Created in 1999 by the CIA,
In-Q-Tel is an independent, not-for-profit firm that invests in tech-
nology startups that serve the national interest. (One early recipient
of In-Q-Tel’s investment was Keyhole, which became the platform for

Google Earth.) Now also funded by the Department of Homeland

Security, the Department of Defense, and other U.S. agencies, In-Q-Tel
identifies and adapts innovative technologies for its government cus-
tomers. Compared with a federal agency, a private, not-for-profit firm
can more easily attract the investment and technology talent required
to make informed investments. There is every reason to take this
model and apply it to broader priorities. Even just $100 million to
$500 million of early-stage funding per
year—a drop in the bucket of the fed-
Too much government- eral budget—could help fill the gap be-
funded research remains tween what the private sector is providing
and what the nation needs.
locked in the lab. For the later stage, policymakers
could draw inspiration from the U.S.
International Development Finance Corporation, the federal agency
responsible for investing in development projects abroad, which in
2018 was first authorized to make equity investments. A late-stage
investment fund could be structured as an arm of that agency or as a
fully independent, not-for-profit private entity funded by the gov-
ernment. Either way, it would provide badly needed capital to com-
panies ready to scale up their operations. Compared with early-stage
government support, late-stage government support would have to
be greater, in the range of $1 billion to $5 billion annually. To expand
the impact of this government investment, both the early- and the
late-stage funds should encourage “sidecar” investments, which
would allow profit-seeking firms and individuals to join the govern-
ment in making, and potentially profiting from, technology bets.
Government-sponsored investment funds like these would not only
fill critical gaps in private-sector investment; they would also allow tax-
payers to share in the success of research their money has funded. Cur-
rently, most government funding for technology comes in the form of
grants, such as the Small Business Innovation Research grants adminis-
tered by the Small Business Administration; this is true even of some
programs that are billed as investment funds. This means that taxpayers
foot the bill for failures but cannot share in the success if a company
makes it big. As the economist Mariana Mazzucato has pointed out in
these pages, “governments have socialized risks but privatized rewards.”
Not-for-profit investment vehicles working on behalf of the gov-
ernment would have another benefit: they would allow the United
The Innovation Wars
States to play offense when it comes to technological competition. For

too long, it has played defense. For example, it has banned the export
of sensitive technology and restricted foreign investment that might
pose a national security risk—even though these actions can harm
U.S. businesses and do nothing to promote innovation. Supporting
commercialization with government-sponsored equity investment
will not be cheap, but some of the upfront costs would likely be re-
gained and could be reinvested. There are also nonmonetary returns:
investing in national priorities, including infrastructure that could be
exported to U.S. allies, would enhance the United States’ soft power.
INNOVATION EVER AFTER

President Joe Biden has pledged to “build back better” and restore the
United States’ global leadership. On the campaign trial, he laid out
promising proposals to promote American innovation. He called for
dramatically boosting federal R & D spending, including some $300
billion to be focused on breakthrough technologies to enhance U.S.
competitiveness. That is a good start, but he could make this drive
far more effective if he first created a rigorous process for identifying
top technological priorities. Biden said he supports “a scaled-up ver-
sion” of the Small Business Innovation Research grants and has
backed “infrastructure for educational institutions and partners to
expand research.” Even greater opportunity lies in filling the gaps in
private-sector investment and undertaking a long-overdue expansion
of government support for commercialization.
On innovation, if the United States opts for just more of the same,
its economy, its security, and its citizens’ well-being will all suffer. The
United States will thus further the end of its global leadership and the
unfettered rise of China. Biden has the right instincts. Yet in order to
sustain its technological dominance, the country will have to fundamen-
tally reenvision the why and how of innovation. Biden will no doubt be
consumed with addressing domestic challenges, but he has spent much
of his career promoting the United States’ global leadership. By revamp-
ing American technological innovation, he could do both.∂

Opening Up the Order
A More Inclusive International System
W
hen the world looks back on the response to the COVID-19
pandemic, one lesson it will draw is the value of compe-
tent national governments—the kind that imposed social-
distancing restrictions, delivered clear public health messaging, and
implemented testing and contact tracing. It will also, however, recall
the importance of the CEOs, philanthropists, epidemiologists, doc-
tors, investors, civic leaders, mayors, and governors who stepped in
when national leaders failed.
Early in the pandemic, as the U.S. and Chinese governments cast
research into the new coronavirus as a jingoistic imperative, the world’s
scientists were sharing viral genome sequences and launching hun-
dreds of clinical trials—what The New York Times called a “global col-
laboration unlike any in history.” The vaccine race involved transnational
networks of researchers, foundations, and businesses, all motivated by
different incentives yet working together for a common cause.
Still, with the rise of China, the fraying of the postwar liberal inter-
national order, and the drawbridge-up mentality accelerated by the
pandemic, realpolitik is back in vogue, leading some to propose recen-
tering international relations on a small group of powerful states. Al-
though it is easy to caricature proposals for a world run by a handful of
great powers as the national security establishment pining for a long-
gone world of cozy backroom dealing, the idea is not entirely unrea-
sonable. Network science has demonstrated the essential value of both
strong and weak ties: small groups to get things done and large ones
to maximize the flow of information, innovation, and participation.
ANNE-MARIE SLAUGHTER is CEO of New America and former Director of Policy
Planning at the U.S. State Department.
GORDON L A FORGE is a Senior Researcher at Princeton University and a lecturer at

Arizona State University’s Thunderbird School of Global Management.
Even if states could create a modern-day version of the nineteenth-

century Concert of Europe, however, it would not be enough to tackle
the hydra-headed problems of the twenty-first century. Threats such
as climate change and pandemics transcend national jurisdictions. In
the absence of a true global government, the best bet for guaranteeing
the world’s security and prosperity is not to limit the liberal order to
democracies but to expand it deeper into liberal societies. There, civic,
educational, corporate, and scientific actors can work with one an-
other—and with governments—in ways that enhance transparency,
accountability, and problem-solving capacity.
Leaders do not face a binary choice between the state and society.
Global problem solving is a both/and enterprise. The task is thus to
figure out how best to integrate those two worlds. One promising ap-
proach would be to identify the many actors working on a specific
problem (say, infectious disease) and then connect the most effective
participants and help them accomplish clear goals. “We do not need
new bureaucracies,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres has
written. “But we do need a networked multilateralism that links
global and regional institutions. We also need an inclusive multilater-
alism that engages businesses, cities, universities and movements.”
It is a dark time for global politics. States are adapting to a world
of multiple power centers and complex issues that require coordina-
tion at every level of society. Four years of erratic, personality-driven
leadership in the United States under President Donald Trump,
moreover, have left the liberal order in tatters. To repair it, leaders
need to tap the talent and resources outside the state. Humanity can-
not afford to go back to a world in which only states matter.
THE CASE FOR EXPANSION

States create international orders to, well, establish order—that is, to
fight chaos, solve problems, and govern. The liberal international order
is a subset of this idea, a set of institutions, laws, rules, procedures, and
practices that shaped international cooperation after World War II. Its
purpose was to facilitate collective action by regularizing decision-
making processes, developing shared norms, and increasing the repu-
tational costs of reneging on commitments. The institutions that form
part of that order—the UN system, the International Monetary Fund,
the World Bank, NATO, and the precursor to the EU, the European Eco-
nomic Community—served that purpose reasonably well for decades.

But the world cannot successfully address twenty-first-century

threats and challenges, such as climate change, pandemic disease, cy-
berconflict, and inequality, without mobilizing a new set of actors. Ex-
isting institutions, although valuable, were built for a world of
concentrated power, in which a handful of states called the shots. To-
day, power is much more diffuse, with nonstate actors strong enough
to both create international problems
and help solve them. Accordingly, the
If humanity is to survive current order needs to expand not by
and thrive, it cannot go differentiating between various kinds
of states but by making room for new
back to a world in which categories of nonstate actors.
only states matter. Take the response to the pandemic.
Unilateral action by national govern-
ments was often decisive in curbing
the disease. Implementing social restrictions, closing borders, and
providing emergency economic relief saved lives. Despite all the
criticism they have received, international organizations were also
essential. The World Health Organization was the first body to of-
ficially report the outbreak of a deadly novel coronavirus; it issued
technical guidance on how to detect, test for, and manage COVID-19;
and it shipped tests and millions of pieces of protective gear to
more than 100 countries.
Also critical, however, were many other actors outside the state.
As many governments promulgated false or politically biased infor-
mation about the new coronavirus and its spread, universities and
independent public health experts provided reliable data and action-
able models. Philanthropies injected massive amounts of money into
the fight; by the end of 2020, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation had
donated $1.75 billion to the global COVID-19 response. The Coalition for
Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, a global vaccine-development
partnership of public, private, and civil society organizations, raised
$1.3 billion for COVID-19 vaccine candidates, two of which, the Mod-
erna vaccine and the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, are already being
administered to the public.
Officials below the national level also played a vital role. In the
United States, where the federal government’s response was indeci-
sive and shambolic, governors convened regional task forces and to-
gether procured supplies of ventilators and protective equipment.
Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire philanthropist and former New

York City mayor, provided funding and organizational and technical
assistance to create a contact-tracing army in the city. Apple and
Google partnered to develop tools that could notify smartphone us-
ers if they came into contact with people infected by the virus. Seri-
ous planning on when and how to reopen the U.S. economy was first
done not in the White House but by governors and a CEO task force
convened by the nonprofit the Business Roundtable. The first large-
scale antibody study to determine the prevalence of the virus in the
United States was conducted not by the National Institutes of
Health or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention but by
California universities, an anti-doping research group, and 10,000
employees and players of Major League Baseball.
The response to the COVID-19 pandemic is only one example of how
global actors, not states alone, drive solutions to complex problems.
Although it would have been preferable had efficient central govern-
ments organized a coherent response to the pandemic, the distributed
response on the part of others demonstrated just how much problem-
solving talent exists outside the state. Moreover, as some countries
become more nationalist, parochial, and captured by special interests,
opening up the international order to global actors is the best way to
reform the order in the absence of a major state-led initiative.
GROWING NETWORKS
The activity of global actors working on a given problem, such as
COVID-19, is difficult to map, much less manage. But it is also here to
stay. As the scholar Jessica Mathews first noted in Foreign Affairs in
1997, powers once reserved for national governments have shifted
substantially and inexorably to businesses, international organiza-
tions, and nongovernmental organizations. Later that same year,
one of us (Anne-Marie Slaughter) noted, also in these pages, the
emerging “disaggregation of the state” into its component executive,
legislative, judicial, and subnational parts. Regulators, judges, may-
ors, and governors were already working together in “government
networks” that provided a parallel infrastructure to formal interna-
tional institutions. This phenomenon has only grown more pro-
nounced in the intervening two decades.
Still, nation-states will not disappear, nor even diminish in impor-
tance. Many governments possess political legitimacy that global ac-

tors often lack. Populist leaders have also demonstrated both the
capacity to reassert traditional conceptions of sovereignty and the
appeal of that strategy to many of their citizens. Trump single-handedly
dismantled many of the signature foreign policy achievements of the
Obama administration: he withdrew from the Paris climate agree-
ment, torpedoed the Iran nuclear deal, and reversed the opening to
Cuba. Autocrats in China, the Philippines, Russia, and Turkey have
consolidated power and control, leading observers to bemoan a re-
turn to the era of the strongman. Where democracy is retrenching,
however, it is often mayors, governors, businesspeople, and civic
leaders who offer the strongest resistance. These actors prize and
benefit from an open, democratic society.
The geography of global economic power, moreover, is also shifting
in favor of nonstate actors. Five giant technology companies—Ama-
zon, Apple, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft—have a combined mar-
ket capitalization of roughly $7 trillion, greater than the GDP of every
country except China and the United States. Even if governments
reined in or broke up those five, scores of other companies would have
more economic resources than many states. A similar shift is evident
when it comes to security. As 9/11 made clear, some of the most potent
national security threats emanate from organizations unaffiliated with
any state. Even public service delivery is no longer the sole remit of
governments. Since 2000, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, has helped im-
munize more than 822 million children in the developing world.
This transformation is partly the product of global connectivity.
Never before has it been so easy to communicate, organize, and con-
duct business across national borders. In 1995, 16 million people used
the Internet; in 2020, 4.8 billion did. Nearly 1.8 billion people log on
to Facebook every day, a population larger than that of any single
country. World trade as a percentage of global GDP is double what it
was in 1975. According to one estimate, the number of treaties depos-
ited with the UN grew from fewer than 4,500 in 1959 to more than
45,000 50 years later. In 1909, there were 37 international organiza-
tions; in 2009, there were nearly 2,000.
MAPPING THE NETWORKED WORLD

The world of global networks is a messy and contested space. Inter-
national networks committed to ending climate change, promoting
human rights, and fighting corruption exist alongside those bent on
perpetrating terrorist attacks or laundering money. But COVID-19

has shown that successfully responding to contemporary challenges
requires mobilizing global actors.
One way to marshal these forces is to expand the liberal order
down. The goal should be a horizontal and open system that har-
nesses the power and efficacy of both
governments and global actors. The pil-
lars of this order might be called “im- An expanded liberal order
pact hubs”: issue-specific organizations can harness and shape
that sit at the center of a set of impor-
tant actors working on a particular networks from every sector
problem—coordinating their collective of society.
work toward common, clearly measur-
able goals and outcomes. A hub could
be an existing international or regional organization, a coalition of
nongovernmental organizations, or a new secretariat within the UN
system specifically created for the purpose.
Gavi is the clearest example of this hub-based approach. The
Gates Foundation helped found Gavi in 2000 as an alliance of gov-
ernments, international organizations, businesses, and nongovern-
mental organizations. Its small secretariat is charged with a wide
array of vaccine-related functions, from research to distribution, all
under the eye of a 28-person board of public, private, and civic rep-
resentatives. The founders of Gavi designed it as a new type of inter-
national organization, one that sought to be representative, nimble,
and effective all at the same time. The result is far from perfect, but
it has enormous advantages. Purely governmental organizations are
often paralyzed by politics, and purely private or civic networks are
invariably interested in pursuing their own interests.
In most areas of global problem solving, however, the challenge is
not too few actors but too many. The goal is to identify the most effec-
tive and legitimate organizations in a particular area and link them to a
hub that has both the funds and the authority to make a difference. Too
much connection can be as bad as too little: the bigger the meeting, the
harder it is to reach consensus and take action. Moreover, formal inclu-
sion often means informal exclusion: when nothing gets done in the
meeting, lots of action takes place among smaller groups in the lobby.
To avoid that outcome, would-be architects of a new global order
should begin by mapping the networked world. A good place to

start would be to look at the actors working on each of the UN’s 17

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)—targets the world has
agreed must be met by 2030 to achieve global peace and prosperity.
The relevant actors include UN special agencies and affiliates; re-
gional groups such as the European Union and the Organization of
American States; corporations such as Coca-Cola, Siemens, and
Tata; large philanthropies such as the Gates Foundation, the Ford
Foundation, and the Aga Khan Foundation; and research centers,
private institutes, think tanks, and civic and faith groups. Mapping
these actors and the connections between them would reveal the
most important centers of activity and provide a starting point for
figuring out where to locate or support a hub.
HUBS AND SPOKES

With networks mapped, leaders would then need to offer incentives
to spur the designation or creation of the hubs. One way to do this
would be to use challenges issued by international organizations, phi-
lanthropies, or groups of governments. The MacArthur Foundation’s
100&Change challenge, for instance, offers a $100 million grant to
fund a single proposal that “promises real and measurable progress in
solving a critical problem of our time.”
A properly designed challenge could encourage the formation of
powerful hubs by triggering a natural growth process that network
science calls “preferential attachment.” In all sorts of networks—
biological, social, economic, political—the nodes that already have
the most connections attract the greatest number of new connec-
tions. Within international relations, the UN is a useful example of
this phenomenon. Initiatives and institutions often grow out of the
UN because nearly all countries are already a part of its structure and
because it has a record of credibility and expertise.
The UN should, however, pursue a more deliberate strategy to en-
sure that its many programs, commissions, and sub-organizations be-
come problem-solving hubs. The secretary-general could, for example,
connect a global network of mayors and governors to the UN Refugee
Agency to help with refugee resettlement. Or, to combat climate
change, the UN Environment Program could work with the Global
Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy, a partnership between
Bloomberg Philanthropies and the European Union that has brought
together more than 7,000 local executives.
For those issues on which actors view the UN as too big, bureau-
cratic, or divided for effective action, regional organizations, infor-
mal groups, or existing public-private coalitions could serve a similar
purpose. The point, however, is not simply to create partnerships
and coalitions—the world is awash in them already. It is to create a
stronger and more participatory order. Over time, the messy spa-
ghetti bowl of global networks could evolve from a distributed struc-
ture with no hubs, or countless small hubs, into a more rationalized
structure, one that has fewer but bigger hubs.
An effective global order also needs to be judged by its practical
results, with clear metrics that incentivize competition and invest-
ment. Here, impact hubs offer an enormous opportunity to compare
progress across different organizations, alliances, coalitions, and net-
works. Some organizations are already developing standardized met-
rics of progress. Impact investing—whereby investors seek not just
financial returns but also environmental, social, and governance re-
turns—is an enormous and fast-growing field. Just as traditional
investors look to economic indicators such as profit margins, impact
investors rely on concrete indicators to guide their choices, such as
carbon emissions or school enrollment.
Leaders can and should apply similar metrics to the work of inter-
national institutions. Imagine a global impact metrics organization,
comparable to the International Organization for Standardization,
that rated global impact hubs in terms of the progress they were mak-
ing toward achieving a particular SDG. However they were organized,
reliable metrics would create a uniform way of assessing the actual
contributions of different groups and hubs. In challenge competitions,
the networks that were measurably more effective would prevail,
which would then put them in a position to attract more people, funds,
and connections, creating a virtuous circle.
The broader result would be a flexible, ever-changing system, one
that would be more responsive and effective than the current order. It
could meet the planet’s challenges while allowing for important varia-
tion at the local and national levels.
A NEW LIBERAL ORDER

As children pore over maps and globes, they learn to see a world
neatly divided into geographic containers, brightly colored shapes
separated by stark black lines. Later, they come to understand that al-

though those borders are real, guarded by fences, walls, and officials,
they are only one way of visualizing the international system. Satellite
pictures of the world at night show clusters and ribbons of light, de-
picting the riotous interconnectedness of humanity in some places
and the distant isolation of others.
Both of these images signify something relevant and important.
The former portrays the state-based international order—visible, or-
ganized, demarcated. The latter illustrates the tangled webs of busi-
nesses, civil society organizations, foundations, universities, and other
actors—an evolving, complex system that, although harder to concep-
tualize, is no less important to world affairs. The two exist side by side
or, more precisely, on top of each other. The great advantage of the
state-based order is that it has the legitimacy of formal pedigree and
sovereign representation, even if it is often paralyzed and ineffective
at solving important problems. The global order, by contrast, has the
potential to be far more participatory, nimble, innovative, and effec-
tive. But it can also be shadowy and unaccountable.
If leaders bring together parts of both systems in a more coherent
vision of a liberal order, the United States and its allies could build
the capacity necessary to meet today’s global challenges. An expanded
liberal order could harness networks of people, organizations, and
resources from every sector of society. The existing institutions of
the liberal, state-based order could become impact hubs. The result
would be a messy, redundant, and ever-changing system that would
never be centrally controlled. But it would be aligned in the service
of peace and prosperity.∂
Democracy on the Defense
Turning Back the Authoritarian Tide
Yascha Mounk
A
fter the Cold War ended, it looked like democracy was on the
march. But that confident optimism was misplaced. With the
benefit of hindsight, it is clear that it was naive to expect de-
mocracy to spread to all corners of the world. The authoritarian turn
of recent years reflects the flaws and failings of democratic systems.
Most analyses of the precarious state of contemporary democracy
begin with a similar depiction. They are not altogether incorrect.
But they omit an important part of the picture. The story of the last
two decades is not just one of democratic weakness; it is also one of
authoritarian strength.
Since the 1990s, autocratic regimes have advanced in terms of eco-
nomic performance and military might. Dictators have learned to use
digital tools to oppress opposition movements in sophisticated ways.
They have beaten back democratic campaigns that once looked prom-
ising, taken hold of countries that seemed to be on the way to becom-
ing more democratic, and vastly increased their international influence.
What the world has seen is less a democratic retreat than an authori-
tarian resurgence. Autocrats, long focused on bare survival, are now
on the offensive. The coming decades will feature a long and drawn-
out contest between democracy and dictatorship.
The outcome of that contest is not foreordained. To prevail, the
United States and its democratic allies need to understand the stakes
of this historic moment and work together to protect global democ-
racy in more imaginative and courageous ways than they have in the
past. They will also need to solve a dilemma created by the tension
between two core objectives: stemming backsliding within their
own ranks, on the one hand, and maintaining a unified front against
YASCHA MOUNK is an Associate Professor at Johns Hopkins University, a Senior Fellow
at the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Founder of Persuasion.

Yascha Mounk
authoritarian regimes such as those in China and Russia, on the

other. Simply put, it will be hard to oppose antidemocratic govern-
ments in countries whose support is crucial to confronting full-
throated, increasingly assertive authoritarians. Dealing with that
dilemma will require a skillful approach that preserves the possibil-
ity of cooperation with countries that have questionable democratic
bona fides while reserving close partnerships for genuinely demo-
cratic allies. It will also mean abandoning “democracy promotion” in
favor of “democracy protection”—seeking, for the most part, to se-
cure, rather than expand, the democratic world.
AUTHORITARIANS ON THE MARCH

Donald Trump’s tenure in the White House cast unprecedented
doubt on which side the United States would take in the conflict be-
tween democracy and dictatorship. Even before 2016, Washington
regularly supported autocratic governments when the prospects of
finding democratic allies in a strategically important country looked
slim. But the past four years marked the first time that a U.S. presi-
dent seemed to openly favor dictatorships over democracies and
boosted autocratic forces within democratic allies.
Trump called the desirability of NATO into question. He repeatedly
refused to condemn autocratic attempts to interfere in democratic
elections, murder dissidents on foreign soil, or put bounties on the
heads of U.S. soldiers. He expressed admiration for dictators includ-
ing Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and North
Korea’s Kim Jong Un even though they and their countries shared
little in the way of ideology or geostrategic importance.
Under Trump, the United States also promoted extremist forces
within other democratic countries. In an interview with the far-right
news outlet Breitbart, Richard Grenell, then the U.S. ambassador to
Germany, insinuated that he sought to “empower” populist move-
ments across Europe. Meanwhile, Pete Hoekstra, the U.S. ambassa-
dor to the Netherlands, held a private gathering for members of an
extremist Dutch political party and its donors at the U.S. embassy.
Back home, Trump himself welcomed a series of authoritarian popu-
lists to the White House, including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor
Orban and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Put diplomatically, during Trump’s tenure in office, the United
States ceased to be the so-called leader of the free world. Put more
The autocrats: Xi and Putin in Shanghai, May 2014

bluntly, large parts of the Trump administration effectively de-
fected to the autocratic camp.
On the surface, the moderate leaders of powerful democracies in
Europe and elsewhere have little in common with Trump. Little love
was lost between him and Emmanuel Macron, the president of France,
or Angela Merkel, the German chancellor. But despite those Euro-
pean leaders’ putative support for democratic values and their elegant
speeches in support of human rights, their actual deeds have repeat-
L A N H O N G GUA N G / X I N H UA / EY EV I N E / R E D U X
edly aided and abetted the forces of autocracy around the world.
When Merkel was struggling to deal with a large inflow of refugees
from the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa in 2016, for instance,
she spearheaded a deal between the EU and Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan that cut off one of the main routes for migrants
headed to mainland Europe. Even as Erdogan sought to concentrate
power in his own hands and was busy jailing more than 100 journal-
ists, the lucrative agreement helped him cement his political standing.
Germany and several other European states also pressed ahead with
Nord Stream 2, a Russian-built gas pipeline that would secure their

Yascha Mounk
energy supplies while leaving some central and eastern European de-
mocracies immensely vulnerable to pressure from the Kremlin.
The most important service that Merkel and other European lead-
ers provided the autocratic camp, however, was their failure to con-
front democratic backsliding in neighboring countries such as Hungary
and Poland. Over the past decade, governments in both Budapest and
Warsaw have rapidly eroded the rule of law, weakened the separation
of powers, undermined the free press, and rendered elections deeply
unfair. Freedom House, an organization that tracks the status of dem-
ocratic governance around the world, recently downgraded Hungary
to “partly free”—a sad first for a member of the EU.
Even so, Brussels has yet to levy serious sanctions on either Hun-
gary or Poland, and both countries continue to receive billions of
euros from the EU. Because the bloc has failed to exercise any effec-
tive control over the money’s distribution, it has essentially pro-
vided the antidemocratic populists who lead the governments in
both places with a slush fund to reward their political allies and pun-
ish their adversaries.
TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE?

This shameful period of inaction in the face of the authoritarian re-
surgence is now, hopefully, coming to an end. In the United States,
Joe Biden’s victory in last year’s presidential election put politicians
deeply committed to democratic values back in power. In the EU, the
attacks on democracy by some member states have become so blatant
that several crusading politicians, including Mark Rutte, the prime
minister of the Netherlands, and Sophie in ’t Veld and Sergey Lago-
dinsky, two members of the European Parliament, have forced the
bloc to start confronting the authoritarian governments in their
midst. But unless democratic leaders recognize the extent of the au-
thoritarian resurgence and the serious threat it poses, their response
is likely to be too little, too late.
The EU’s attempts to contain autocracy within the bloc is a depress-
ing case study in how halfhearted efforts are likely to fail. In 2020, af-
ter years of inaction, the EU finally tried to impose stronger conditions
on the funds it disburses across the bloc. A European Commission
proposal envisioned a system that would freeze payments to member
states if they violated the rule of law in their countries. Poland and
Hungary, two likely targets, fought back, threatening to veto an EU
budget that included funding for vital COVID-19 relief efforts. True to
form, European leaders quickly caved. In a compromise that was de-
signed to save face but mostly demonstrated how autocratic leaders
within the EU are now essentially immune from negative repercussions
for their attacks on democracy as long as they give one another politi-
cal cover, the commission abandoned the measure’s core elements.
As a result of the deal, the European Commission still cannot with-
hold funds when member states take
steps to weaken the rule of law. To
sanction such states, Brussels instead Autocrats, long focused
needs to demonstrate that EU funds on bare survival, are now
are being misspent. In another con- on the offensive.
cession, the commission promised not
to bring any rule-of-law proceedings
against member states until those that are opposed to what is left of the
new rules have a chance to contest their constitutionality in front of the
European Court of Justice. This effectively guarantees that Orban and
other autocratic leaders will win more unfair elections, remaining in
power for years to come. In the end, the failed attempt to discipline
Hungary and Poland merely illustrated how much impunity autocratic
leaders within the EU now enjoy.
Across the Atlantic, it is too early to assess how effective the new
U.S. administration will be in bolstering democracy. Initial statements
from Biden and members of his senior foreign policy team suggest
that they take the autocratic threat seriously and are keen to restore the
United States to its role as the “leader of the free world.” A year ago,
Biden wrote in these pages that “the triumph of democracy and liberal-
ism over fascism and autocracy created the free world. But this contest
does not just define our past. It will define our future, as well.” This
attitude marks a real shift from the last four years. Under Biden’s lead-
ership, the short-term survival of NATO will, thankfully, no longer be in
doubt, and countries that depend on the United States for their secu-
rity will rightly breathe a sigh of relief.
Over the next years, the United States is also more likely to work
closely with long-standing democratic allies than with either auto-
cratic states or backsliding democracies. In contrast to Trump, Biden
will undoubtedly have better relationships with democratic leaders
such as Merkel and South Korean President Moon Jae-in than with
autocratic ones such as Erdogan or Sisi. Biden is unlikely to invite

Yascha Mounk
antidemocratic populists such as Orban or Modi to the White

House, as Trump did on several occasions. And under Antony
Blinken’s leadership, the State Department will once again express
concern over attacks on human rights and free institutions around
the world. Populists and autocrats will have to pay a price for attacks
on core democratic values.
Biden and his team have also signaled their intention to convene a
high-profile summit of democracies. Although the incoming admin-
istration has not released details about the summit’s timing or con-
tent, the proposal’s intention is clear: to reinvigorate democratic
countries in their fight against autocratic threats. If done right, the
summit could send an important signal about the United States’
commitment to democratic values.
All these changes will represent a notable improvement over the
Trump administration. But even if they are fully implemented, they
likely won’t suffice to stem the authoritarian resurgence. The problem
is that two of the central goals of these efforts—containing the influ-
ence of powerful autocracies and halting backsliding in key democra-
cies—are often in conflict with each other. Any attempt to halt the
authoritarian resurgence must simultaneously stop embattled democ-
racies such as India and Poland from joining the ranks of the world’s
dictatorships and prevent countries such as China and Russia from
reshaping the international order. But if Washington wants to contain
Russia, it needs to preserve a close relationship with Poland, and if it
wants to contain China, it needs to keep India onboard.
This dilemma will make it difficult for the Biden administration to
carry out its pro-democracy agenda. When the United States convenes
its proposed summit of democracies, for example, it could safely abstain
from inviting countries that are rapidly backsliding and have compara-
tively little geostrategic importance, such as Hungary. But it will be
harder to avoid inviting backsliding democracies such as India or Poland,
which, because of their size or location, are important allies in the effort
to contain the United States’ most powerful authoritarian adversaries.
Democracies will never be able to sidestep this predicament en-
tirely. They can, however, be open about the nature of the problem
and publicly commit themselves to a consistent strategy. This would
require that the leading democratic states clearly distinguish be-
tween two levels in their relations with other countries: a lower tier
available to countries that share a geostrategic interest in containing
powerful dictatorships, even if they themselves are autocracies or

backsliding democracies, and a higher tier for countries that share
both democratic values and geostrategic interests.
This strategy would represent a continuation of past foreign policy
in recognizing the need to sustain strategic alliances with countries
that are less than fully democratic. But it would also represent a
marked departure by committing the United States and other power-
ful democracies to reserving the status of full partner for liberal de-
mocracies and downgrading their relationships with other longtime
partners if they significantly backslide.
Creating this two-tier structure would provide a modest yet real
incentive for governments of countries interested in maintaining a re-
lationship with established democracies to end their attacks on the rule
of law. It would also provide pro-democracy activists and movements
in those countries with evidence of the international benefits of resist-
ing would-be autocrats. Especially in deeply divided states where pro-
democracy forces still have some hope of displacing the government
through elections, this policy change might just make the difference
between aspiring autocrats’ losing power and their holding on to it.
At his proposed summit of democracies, Biden should establish cri-
teria for what would constitute a breach of minimum democratic stan-
dards and what costs Washington would impose on countries that
failed to live up to them. He should also invite other countries to adopt
their own versions of this Biden Doctrine. The more developed de-
mocracies pursue this approach, the more powerful its effects will be.
PROTECTING DEMOCRACY
This kind of approach would require policymakers in the United
States and Europe to rethink the notion of “democracy promotion.”
For the most part, that term has been used to describe admirable
efforts to bolster democratic movements in autocratic countries or
fledgling democracies. But at times, the United States and others
have abused it, misapplying it to destructive attempts to impose
democracy by force. The deeper problem, however, is that the very
idea of democracy promotion rests on the assumption that the fu-
ture will be more democratic than the past.
In light of the recent authoritarian resurgence, leaders need to
stand this assumption on its head. It is certainly possible that some
autocracies will democratize over the coming decades, and when such

Yascha Mounk
opportunities arise, developed democracies should do what they can

to help. But the primary goal of U.S. and European foreign policy
should not be to promote democracy in countries where it does not
already exist. Instead, it should be to protect democracy in those
countries where it is now seriously at risk.
Just as democracy promotion developed gradually, democracy pro-
tection will take time to evolve. But there are some immediate steps that
the United States and its allies should
take. As Warsaw restricts press free-
To address the threat that dom, Radio Free Europe should re-
resurgent authoritarians start its Polish-language broadcast, as
it did its Hungarian-language broad-
pose, the world’s cast in 2020. In turn, Voice of America
democracies need to should monitor changes in India that
commit to bold action. might justify a new Hindi-language
program. Organizations such as the
National Endowment for Democracy
should step up their activities in such places—a shift of resources that is
increasingly crucial as governments in those countries stifle civil society
and crack down on nongovernmental organizations.
A serious commitment to democracy protection would also mean us-
ing diplomatic tools to put pressure on backsliding allies. This would
necessarily involve sticks as well as carrots. One potential stick could be
the expanded use of targeted sanctions against officials who work to
subvert democratic institutions. Another would be to delay or cancel
planned initiatives that would boost antidemocratic governments, such
as the Pentagon’s intention to move thousands of U.S. troops to Poland.
Democracy protection will also require a greater focus on the con-
nection between foreign policy and domestic politics. Of late, com-
mentators and policymakers have begun to emphasize how international
issues such as free trade affect domestic politics: unless ordinary citi-
zens believe that the liberal international order will improve their
daily lives, they will be unwilling to carry its burdens. But the link is
just as strong in the other direction: citizens who lose faith in demo-
cratic values or no longer believe in their own political system can
hardly be effective advocates for democracy.
Leaders in developed democracies need to take on autocratic chal-
lengers in their midst. But they must avoid doing so by illiberal means.
This can be a tough line to walk: many democracies, for instance, are
increasingly willing to ban extremist political parties, restrict speech

deemed hateful, and censor social media platforms. The efficacy of all
these measures is doubtful. What is certain, however, is that budding
autocrats often use strikingly similar laws and regulations as cover for
concentrating power in their own hands.
The link between foreign and domestic policy is also a reason to stop
autocrats abroad from limiting what citizens of democracies can say at
home. Over the past several years, China has mounted a concerted cam-
paign to deter citizens, municipalities, and corporations elsewhere from
criticizing its human rights record. In Germany, for example, the city of
Heidelberg in 2019 removed a Tibetan flag flown outside its city hall
after pressure from Chinese diplomats. Following economic threats from
the Chinese government that same year, the National Basketball Asso-
ciation criticized Daryl Morey, then the general manager of the Houston
Rockets, for supporting pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong.
Although it will likely prove impossible to completely prevent this
sort of muzzling, the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act of 1977 might
serve as a model for an effective response. That U.S. law creates a
major deterrent to engaging in graft by imposing stiff punishments on
corporations that pay bribes to foreign officials. A similar deterrent
could be created by legislation in the United States and Europe that
would prohibit corporations and other organizations from punishing
their employees for criticizing the policies of autocratic regimes. By
tying the hands of organizations such as Nike, Volkswagen, and the
Houston Rockets, such laws would make it far easier for them to resist
outside pressure to silence their employees.
REFORM OR PERISH
A final step in heading off the authoritarian resurgence would be to
reform two of the liberal international order’s foundational institu-
tions: the EU and NATO. The Americans and Europeans who designed
those bodies assumed that their own countries would never experi-
ence serious democratic backsliding. As a result, neither organization
has straightforward means for suspending or expelling a member
whose character has fundamentally changed.
This is particularly problematic for the European Union, which
requires its members to sacrifice an unusually high degree of sover-
eignty to join the bloc. Although national politicians sometimes find
it hard to explain this to their voters, there are some compelling rea-

Yascha Mounk
sons for the arrangement. On their own, most EU countries are too
small to tackle transnational problems such as climate change or sig-
nificantly influence world politics. Since these countries share a com-
mitment to democracy and the rule of law, giving up a measure of
independence enables them to promote their shared values.
According to this same logic, however, the rise of authoritarian
leaders within EU states deeply undermines the bloc’s legitimacy. It
may be rational for citizens in the Netherlands to pool some of their
country’s sovereignty with that of nearby democracies, such as Greece
or Sweden, as their interests are presumably aligned. But it is hard to
explain politically or justify morally why rules set in part by would-
be dictators in Budapest and Warsaw should bind Dutch citizens. If
policymakers in Brussels don’t address that contradiction, the EU will
face a legitimacy crisis of existential proportions—one that its cur-
rent institutions are entirely ill equipped to solve.
NATO faces a similar problem. Like the EU, the alliance was founded,
as the treaty’s preamble makes clear, on a determination “to safeguard
. . . the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law.”
Since the alliance’s primary purpose has always been military, how-
ever, it has long tolerated some violations of those principles. Portu-
gal, one of NATO’s original members, was a dictatorship at the time of
the alliance’s founding. In the decades after 1952, when Greece and
Turkey joined, both countries remained in good standing despite their
occasional control by military dictatorships.
The problem that NATO faces today, however, is different. Even
when Greece, Portugal, and Turkey were dictatorships, they re-
mained reliable members of the alliance; during the Cold War, they
clearly sided with democratic countries such as the United States
rather than communist powers such as the Soviet Union. Now, some
member states, including the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia,
and Turkey, appear to favor China and Russia over the United States.
The Turkish military may have even attacked a U.S. commando out-
post in Syria in 2019. These internal contradictions are unsustain-
able. A mutual-defense pact that includes countries willing to fire
on another member’s troops will quickly lose all credibility. Ejecting
a member from NATO, however, is even more difficult than doing so
in the EU. Although some lawyers have suggested clever work-
arounds, the treaty does not explicitly contain any mechanism for
suspending or expelling a member state.
In both organizations, fixing these flaws would take enormous po-

litical capital, necessitate serious diplomatic pressure, and potentially
require a complete legal or organizational reinvention. All of these are
good reasons why democratic leaders likely lack the appetite for mak-
ing the necessary reforms. But without mechanisms to ensure that
member states either stay aligned with each organization’s missions or
exit it, the EU and NATO will drift into dysfunction and irrelevance.
Politicians who are serious about democracy protection must pri-
oritize reforming these institutions, even if doing so leads to serious
internal conflict. Member states whose actions are no longer in line
with the core mission of the EU or NATO must either change course or
accede to rules that make it possible to expel them. If these reforms
prove impossible, however, it may be better to refound both organiza-
tions on a more sustainable basis than to let them decay.
European leaders are starting to wake up to the threat of demo-
cratic backsliding in their midst. A new U.S. administration has
pledged to defend democracy against illiberal threats. For this de-
termination to be translated into meaningful action, statesmen and
diplomats will need to look beyond the traditional diplomatic play-
book. To address the threat that resurgent authoritarians pose, the
world’s democracies need to commit to bold action. If they do, they
will no doubt face an arduous and uncertain journey—one that will
cost them political capital and inspire blowback. The alternative,
however, is incomparably worse.∂

The Rate Debate
Rethinking Economics in the Age of
Cheap Money
James H. Stock
T
he past five years of U.S. economic policy have been noisy, as
the Trump administration and its allies in Congress pursued a
controversial agenda: a trade war with China, a push to repeal
the Affordable Care Act, tax cuts that mostly benefited the well-off, and
so on. Behind this sound and fury, however, lies a story of quieter but
deeper economic changes that will have far-reaching implications. That
story revolves around four interconnected developments: the fall in the
natural rate of interest, the remarkable decline in the price of renewable
energy, the stubborn persistence of inflation below the U.S. Federal
Reserve’s target of two percent, and the stunningly fast collapse and
then partial rebound of the economy during the COVID-19 crisis.
These changes do not necessarily call into question any fundamen-
tal principles of traditional economic theory. In fact, in many cases,
they confirm the value and validity of certain core concepts. They
were largely unexpected, however: taken together, they require econ-
omists to rethink some key parts of their models. They also open new
dimensions in old debates about taxes and spending. And what is per-
haps most consequential, they present new opportunities for policy-
makers when it comes to the fight against climate change.
ACT NATURALLY
The natural rate of interest, or r*, is the real interest rate—that is, the
actual current interest rate minus expected inflation—that would pre-
vail in an economy enjoying full employment without any government
intervention. Savers and investors use r* to project interest rates over
the long run; for example, the expected long-term value of the yield on
JAMES H. STOCK is Harold Hitchings Burbank Professor of Political Economy at Harvard
University and a member of the faculty at the Harvard Kennedy School.
The Rate Debate
ten-year U.S. Treasury securities is r* plus the expected long-term rate

of inflation. Monetary authorities can hold real interest rates above or
below the natural rate for months or years—but not forever, so r* is the
benchmark against which monetary policy is considered tight or loose.
Although r* is a revealing metric, it is also a problematic one. The
economy, after all, is never at full employment without government inter-
vention; the Fed always has its hand on the wheel. And because expected
inflation is an estimate, the real rate of interest is impossible to measure
directly at any given moment. So gauging r* is a tricky proposition.
Yet there are still several ways to estimate r* and to observe its
steady decline. The simplest one is to select a relatively long period
of time in the past, identify the average interest rate on a low-risk
asset during that period, and then subtract actual inflation during
that period. Take, for example, 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds. The
return on those bonds, minus the rate of inflation, has fallen consis-
tently over the course of the past four decades, from an average of 5.9
percent in the 1980s to 4.7 percent in the 1990s, 2.8 percent in the
first decade of this century, and 1.6 percent in the 2010s. More so-
phisticated estimates of r* draw on statistical models. Although no
single method is determinative, they broadly converge on the finding
that r* has fallen by approximately 1.5 to 2.5 percentage points over
the past two decades, and not only in the United States but also in
developed countries around the world.
Because this decline occurred over decades, it cannot be attributed
to a single business cycle or to monetary policy; explanations must lie
elsewhere. Economists disagree about which factors have played the
biggest role. Some point to the aging of workforces in developed
economies. In the United States, this has occurred as baby boomers
have approached retirement age. As they have, their savings have
risen, which has had the effect of pushing interest rates down. Others
argue that the high savings rate in China has put downward pressure
on interest rates around the world. And although the evidence is
mixed, some economists cite factors such as the slowing growth rate
of productivity (which has dragged down consumption) and the rise
in income inequality (which causes the overall savings rate to rise,
since the rich command an ever-larger share of income and tend to
save a greater portion of their income than the poor do).
Whatever its causes, the decline of r* has profound implications.
One is the increased capacity of developed economies to take on ad-

James H. Stock
ditional sovereign debt. The conventional wisdom—dating to the

1960s and earlier, when r* was much higher than it is today—holds
that carrying too high a level of debt is unsustainable for governments
because interest payments compound and overwhelm the state’s ca-
pacity to tax, leading to a debt crisis. What constitutes “too high” has
never been made clear, but the historical experience of foreign debt
crises, periods of hyperinflation, and defaults provides compelling
evidence that some threshold did in fact exist.
The logic of fiscal prudence is turned on its head, however, in a
world of low r*. If the interest rate paid by the government is less than
the growth rate of the economy, then debt taken on today can be
rolled over in perpetuity—and the burden posed by the interest on
that debt becomes a vanishingly small fraction of GDP. Governments
can therefore finance current spending with essentially no change in
future tax rates. Naturally, this “free money” argument is appealing to
politicians across the U.S. political spectrum: those on the right have
used it to rationalize making permanent the 2017 income tax cuts;
those on the left have used it to justify massive spending proposals
under the so-called Green New Deal.
To some economists, including myself, such arguments are unset-
tling: after all, r* is less than the growth rate of the economy until sud-
denly it isn’t. To the extent that the decline in r* is driven by an aging
population, that demographic transition will taper off. For example, in
the United States, by 2030, all the baby boomers will be at least 65
years old. Additional government borrowing will, all else being equal,
place upward pressure on interest rates and on r*. The lesson from
previous fiscal crises is that when markets start to doubt the ability of
a government to meet its debt obligations, things can sour quickly, and
no one wants to set the stage for a Chinese bailout of an overindebted
U.S. government. Experts in public finance have long maintained that
Americans should not burden their children with a debt-to-GDP ratio
of 100 percent. Although that threshold now seems too low, econo-
mists have not yet reached a consensus on what it should be.
WORTH THE COST?

The evidence for a long-term decline in r* adds a new dimension
to arguments about spending and taxes. Those arguments are age-
old, and the role of interest rates is a familiar part of the debate.
More novel, however, is the question of how the decline of r* might
The Rate Debate
Nice work if you can get it: in New York City, March 2020
affect an issue that has come to the forefront of U.S. politics only
in more recent years: climate change.
Policies that reduce emissions of greenhouse gases entail taking ac-
tions today that governments would not take, at least not with any
urgency, absent the risk of future harm from climate change: in other
words, they involve incurring costs today to enjoy benefits at some
point down the road. To know whether those future benefits will out-
weigh the present costs, one must first assign dollar values to both and
then place those monetized values, which are realized at different
dates, on the same footing. This is done by converting future costs and
benefits to current-year dollars using an interest rate, which in this
context is called a “discount rate.” For example, at a five percent an-
nual discount rate, $1 today is equivalent to $1.05 next year. Such a
comparison of the present values of costs and benefits is more than
merely sound practice: it is required by law for some federal regula-
tions and by presidential order for others. Making such a comparison
requires choosing a discount rate, which for long-term societal costs
JOHN MINCHILLO / AP
(such as damage from climate change) is conventionally taken to be

the long-term real rate of interest—that is, r*.
In the case of climate policy, the so-called social cost of carbon (SCC)
is the present value of the harm done by emitting one metric ton of
carbon dioxide. The U.S. government has published estimates of the

James H. Stock
SCC since 2010. At the end of the Obama administration, the federal
government estimated the SCC to be $51, a value it computed by set-
ting the discount rate to three percent. The Trump administration re-
vised this down to $7 by considering only domestic climate damages,
and not global ones, and then further lowered it to just $1 by setting
the discount rate to seven percent. The
choice of where to set the discount rate
In some parts of the matters a great deal: at three percent, it
United States, clean energy would make economic sense to pay $97
today to avert $1,000 in damages in the
sources are now cheaper year 2100, whereas at seven percent, it
than dirty ones. would make sense to pay only $5. In
this light, the Trump administration’s
calculations encourage the conclusion
that under current U.S. policy, climate change will inflict tremendous
global damage—but that it would still be cost-effective just to let fu-
ture generations deal with the problem.
The three percent figure used by the Obama administration comes
from a remarkable official document released by the Office of Manage-
ment and Budget known as “Circular A-4,” which was issued in 2003
and which provides detailed, thoughtful guidance to federal agencies on
how to conduct cost-benefit analyses. “Circular A-4” arrived at the three
percent figure by taking the 30-year average rate of interest on ten-year
U.S. Treasury bonds and subtracting the rate of inflation in the con-
sumer price index (CPI). Repeating that calculation today provides a
dramatic restatement of the decline in r*: over the past 30 years, the
yield on ten-year Treasuries has averaged 4.3 percent, and CPI inflation
has averaged 2.3 percent, putting r* at 2.0 percent. If this calculation is
performed over the past 20 years, the resulting r* is 1.1 percent—sub-
stantially lower than the Obama-era estimate of three percent.
Despite the Trump administration’s suspect abandonment of the
three percent rate, that number continues to be used as a reference
point in some tax rules and policy proposals. But the decline in r*
implies that the three percent discount rate is too high, and by using
that too-high factor, economists are underestimating the SCC. If r* is
not three percent but rather two percent, then the SCC is not $51 but
actually $125, and it would make economic sense to pay $209 today in
order to prevent $1,000 in damages in the year 2100. In other words,
in a world of low r*, many climate policies that might once have ap-
The Rate Debate
peared inordinately expensive start looking more affordable. A prin-

ciple of regulatory policy is that costs and benefits should be calculated
using the best available science. “Circular A-4” is now nearly two de-
cades old. U.S. President Joe Biden has rightly issued an executive
order to update it so that it reflects new economic understanding.
IT’S EASIER BEING GREEN

Climate change policy has been framed as a tradeoff between the ben-
efits of reducing carbon dioxide emissions and the costs of those reduc-
tions. Economists have encouraged this cost-benefit mindset at many
levels, perhaps most prominently by advocating a carbon tax that
would make it more costly to pollute. The implicit assumption in that
thinking is that polluting will naturally be cheaper than not polluting.
But over the past five years, a remarkable development occurred: the
cost of green technology fell sharply, and in some parts of the United
States, clean energy sources are now cheaper than dirty ones.
From 2014 to 2019, the cost per kilowatt of solar panels fell by around
50 percent. In many parts of the country, building a new wind or solar
farm costs less than running an existing coal plant or building a new
natural gas plant. The U.S. Energy Information Administration proj-
ects that wind and solar farms will soon account for more than three-
quarters of newly installed power plant capacity. These installations
were supported by federal tax credits and by incentives at the state
level. Still, the main driver of their falling costs was not such subsidies
but advances in technology and companies simply “learning by doing”
in the production and installation of renewable power facilities. Similar
cost reductions occurred in electric vehicles. The main driver of the
price of these vehicles is the cost of the lithium-ion batteries, which fell,
on average, by more than 87 percent between 2010 and 2019. By 2024,
in many parts of the United States, an electric vehicle with a 250-mile
range will reach price parity with a comparable conventional vehicle.
These dramatic price declines in two key parts of the U.S. energy
system are shifting the economics of climate policy: instead of making
it more expensive to pollute, policymakers are looking for ways to
make it cheaper to be clean. This puts some economists outside their
comfort zones: there are no randomized controlled experiments that
can tease out the precise causes of these price declines. That said, the
available evidence suggests a potent role for policy in driving down
costs. Solar energy prices declined because of high demand for solar

James H. Stock
panels even at very high prices, thanks in part to government spend-

ing through programs such as Germany’s Energiewende and the Cal-
ifornia Solar Initiative, which committed the German and California
governments to purchase solar technology even when it was expen-
sive. In the case of declining onshore wind energy prices in the United
States, it seems that one important contributor was learning by doing;
companies simply have gotten better at installing wind farms—the
development of which, it should be noted, was aided by public subsi-
dies. Similar trends are shaping the market for offshore wind energy,
which exists thanks only to massive early government commitments,
notably by Denmark, to make major purchases.
Of course, there are plenty of examples of such policies not pan-
ning out. One study has suggested that although certain initial small
grants of up to $150,000 that the U.S. Department of Energy awarded
between 1983 and 2013 helped some firms get a start, the second
round of funding, with grants up to $1 million, had little effect on
those firms’ future business prospects. Perennial funding favorites,
such as small nuclear reactors and research on nuclear fusion, have
made little federally funded progress (although private investment
has recently spurred a rash of exciting fusion projects). The federal
grant-making process is also conservative, with high political penal-
ties for failure. If a program aimed at developing high-risk technolo-
gies doesn’t include failures, however, then it isn’t taking enough risks.
Meanwhile, prioritizing the improvement of technology need not
mean abandoning the idea of a carbon tax that would make it more
expensive to pollute: policymakers can make future clean technology
cheaper while also making it more costly to pollute today.
GRADING ON A CURVE
The drop in green energy prices might have many causes. But ex-
plaining it is a relatively easy task compared with accounting for a
more fundamental change relating to prices, one that confounds con-
ventional economic thinking: the astonishing stability of low infla-
tion. Economists’ main theory of the rate of price inflation is the
so-called Phillips curve, named for the economist A. W. Phillips, who
introduced the concept in the 1950s. In its original form, the Phillips
curve showed an inverse relationship between wage growth and the
unemployment rate. Modern versions, applied to prices, link the cur-
rent rate of inflation to both expected future inflation and a measure
The Rate Debate
of economic slack, such as the gap between the rate of unemployment

and its full-employment value—that is, a measure of the value of un-
used resources in the economy, such as people who cannot find a job.
The past five years have not been kind to this cornerstone of mac-
roeconomics. From the 1960s through the early 1990s, the U.S. Phil-
lips curve was remarkably stable, with an increase in slack reliably
correlating to a reduction in the rate of
inflation. Since 2000, however, this cor-
relation has dropped nearly to zero. For The past five years have
example, during the economic expan- not been kind to the
sion of 2018 and 2019, the U.S. unem- Phillips curve.
ployment rate stabilized at around 3.5
percent, but the rate of inflation failed
to rise. In fact, in 2019, after subtracting out the influence of food and
energy prices, inflation fell to just 1.6 percent—its lowest annual rate
since 2015, when the unemployment rate stood at 5.3 percent.
In a marked break from the experience of past economic down-
turns, the trend of inflation becoming less and less sensitive to eco-
nomic conditions continued into the COVID-19 recession. During the
1990 recession, for each percentage point increase in the unemploy-
ment rate, the core rate of inflation in the United States fell by 0.8
percentage points. In the 2000 recession, that figure was 0.4 percent-
age points. During the recession that followed the 2008 financial crisis,
it was 0.3 percentage points. And in the current pandemic recession,
it has been less than 0.1 percentage points.
It is worth noting that the rate of inflation has been unusually hard
to measure during the COVID-19 crisis because of shifts in demand,
which implies that consumption bundles are changing (toward, say,
home office supplies and away from hotel stays) more rapidly than the
assumptions that are built into the inflation measures. Moreover, the
pandemic has produced both a negative supply shock and a negative
demand shock, which are, respectively, inflationary and disinflation-
ary in standard Phillips curve models. Still, the stability of the rate of
inflation through periods of historically low unemployment and then
through periods of historically high unemployment remains puzzling.
There are plenty of possible explanations for this flattening of the
Phillips curve. One is that the prices for many goods and, increasingly,
the level of many wages are now set internationally and thus are less
sensitive to domestic economic conditions. This is consistent with

James H. Stock
the fact that the prices of goods and services that are produced and
consumed locally—such as housing rentals, restaurant meals, and ho-
tel rooms—have tended to fall during recent downturns. Another
explanation is that the apparent insensitivity of prices to economic
conditions reflects the Fed’s success in stabilizing prices. But that hy-
pothesis cannot account for why the
Fed, the European Central Bank, and
Macroeconomic dynamics the Bank of Japan have not been able to
get the rate of inflation up to two per-
can change far more cent despite their clear desire to do so.
rapidly than economists The persistently low rate of infla-
have traditionally assumed. tion, combined with the decline of r*,
has made it harder for central banks to
react in customary ways to sharp eco-
nomic downturns. In the recessions of 1990, 2000, and 2008, the Fed
reduced short-term interest rates by an average of roughly five per-
centage points. During the first three weeks of March 2020, as the
COVID-19 crisis began in the United States, the Fed had far less wiggle
room, since the core federal funds rate was already at just 1.6 percent.
The Fed brought this rate down to essentially zero, but even that did
not provide remotely close to the level of support the economy needed.
So, as it did following the financial crisis, the Fed purchased long-
term assets in order to stabilize asset markets and keep interest rates
low, making it easier for companies to borrow and preventing a public
health crisis from cascading into a financial crisis.
One reason the Fed had the confidence to go all in on long-term
asset purchases is that, as the pandemic took hold, the central bank
was just wrapping up a years-long review of its monetary policy
framework. The Fed had undertaken the review partly in response to
the decline in r*, which had led Fed economists to conclude that it was
highly probable that the federal funds rate would be stuck at zero for
extended periods. The review was both evolutionary and revolution-
ary. It was evolutionary in that the changes it codified, such as calling
for long-term asset purchases when necessary and encouraging a will-
ingness to tolerate persistent excursions of inflation over two percent,
were consistent with years of research and were broadly understood
and accepted by markets. But the review was revolutionary in that it
happened at all. The process was transparent and systematic, relied on
the best available science, and received input from the broader com-
The Rate Debate
munity of experts and the general public. Such transparency and pub-
lic discussion stand in stark contrast to the secrecy and opacity that
have historically characterized Fed decision-making. As a result of
this process, the Fed has become a stronger institution.
But the Fed could have gone even further. The central bank’s new
willingness to tolerate extended periods of inflation exceeding two
percent has introduced a window for experimentation, which could
increase comfort with raising the inflation target. To its credit, the
Fed, through its review, has now created a means for publicly discuss-
ing this charged issue in a rational and scientific way.
LIFE COMES AT YOU FAST

As the pandemic rages on, it is too soon to know precisely what lessons it
will eventually yield. But one is already clear: macroeconomic dynamics
can change far more rapidly than economists have traditionally assumed.
Prior to the COVID-19 crisis, the largest monthly increase in the
U.S. unemployment rate since 1950 was one percentage point, which
occurred in 1953. In April 2020, the rate increased by 10.4 percentage
points, then fell by 4.6 percentage points over the following three
months. The speed of this spike and retreat was unprecedented; these
were changes immensely larger than what recessions typically pro-
duce. At a casual level, this might seem unremarkable: after all, schools
closed across the country and many businesses shut down. But at the
level of economic modeling, the speed of these changes was a dra-
matic departure and has led to an especially wide range of projections
about the recovery. One view is that the post-vaccine recovery will be
rapid, as pent-up demand is released and extra savings are spent on
vacations, restaurants, and other long-delayed services. A second view
is that because of widespread business closures, workers will not have
jobs to return to and that, after an initial fast recovery, the usual slow
business-cycle dynamics will take over.
Although such dramatic changes call for a rethinking of some basic
concepts, much of economic theory has fared quite well over the past
five years. Take, for example, the concept of externalities. Public in-
terest in doing something about climate change has sharply increased,
from consumers choosing “green” options, to corporations purchasing
carbon offsets for their employees’ travel, to a growing preference
among investors for funds that pursue social and environmental goals
alongside profits, to the Congressional Budget Office including cli-

James H. Stock
mate damages in its long-term GDP forecasts. But carbon remains un-
priced, and so the carbon externality persists. And although U.S.
emissions of carbon dioxide have fallen because of the shift from coal
to natural gas and renewables (and most recently because of the pan-
demic recession), the rate of the reduction has not been nearly fast
enough. Because carbon is unpriced, carbon pollution will remain a
problem that markets left alone will not solve.
The COVID-19 crisis has presented another example of externalities.
Wearing a mask reduces your risk of contracting the virus, so that
benefit of mask wearing is internalized. But it also provides a benefit
to others by protecting them from you if you are infected, and because
that benefit does not accrue to you directly, that benefit is not internal-
ized. This is a classic externality: one person’s decision not to wear a
mask affects the welfare of others. Economic theory suggests multiple
ways for officials address this, such as making it costly not to wear a
mask by fining those who refuse, making it pay to wear a mask by re-
quiring it in places of business, and reducing the potential social costs
of wearing a mask by casting it as a patriotic duty or as an act of com-
passion. Oddly, and tragically, policymakers have rarely pursued such
solutions—often because they have denied that the contagion exter-
nality exists in the first place, an eerie echo of the way that many of the
same policymakers deny the existence of climate externalities.
Another principle of traditional economic theory that has fared
well is the importance of well-functioning institutions as the basis for
a well-functioning economy. COVID-19 has revealed that U.S. public
health institutions are not up to the task of responding to a pandemic.
The institutional breakdown resulted from a combination of chronic
underfunding and a presidential administration instinctively averse to
science and expertise. Economists have invested heavily in ensuring
the intellectual integrity and independence of the Federal Reserve,
which has operated admirably and effectively in the crisis. They would
do the country a service by turning their attention to the job of mak-
ing other institutions just as resilient.∂
REVIEWS & RESPONSES
No country in Southeast Asia will accept an

S E RG EY P ONO MAR EV / T H E N EW YO R K T I M ES
exclusive relationship with China or the

United States. No country will pick a side.
– Bilahari Kausikan
The Arena Market Value

Bilahari Kausikan 186 Binyamin Appelbaum 198
The Stories China Tells Recent Books 204

Jessica Chen Weiss 192
China and the United States. To differ-
The Arena ent degrees and in their own ways,
every country in the region has adopted
that approach to China—and to the
Southeast Asia in the Age of United States, too.
Great-Power Rivalry Southeast Asia has always been a
strategic crossroads, where the interests of
Bilahari Kausikan great powers intersect and sometimes
collide. It is naturally a multipolar region,
never under the sway of any single
external power, except for in the brief
Under Beijing’s Shadow: Southeast Asia’s period of Japanese occupation during
China Challenge World War II. Today’s competition
BY MURRAY HIEBERT. Rowman & between China and the United States is
Littlefield, 2020, 608 pp. just another phase of a centuries-old
dynamic that has embedded the instinct
In the Dragon’s Shadow: Southeast Asia in to simultaneously hedge, balance, and
the Chinese Century bandwagon in the region’s political DNA.
BY SEBASTIAN STRANGIO. Yale Americans seem to find this difficult to
University Press, 2020, 360 pp. grasp. There is a strong tendency to view
the region in binary terms: if the region is
Where Great Powers Meet: America and not “free,” it is “red”; if democracy is not
China in Southeast Asia advancing, it must be in retreat; if the
BY DAVID SHAMBAUGH. Oxford Association of Southeast Asian Nations
University Press, 2020, 352 pp. (ASEAN) does not embrace the United
States, it is in danger of being captured
W
hen I served as a Singapor- by China. This simplistic attitude has led
ean diplomat, I once asked a to several policy failures, including, most
Vietnamese counterpart disastrously, the Vietnam War.
what an impending leadership change Three outstanding books offer
in Hanoi meant for his country’s timely correctives to this misguided
relations with China. “Every Vietnam- view through country-by-country
ese leader,” he replied, “must get along accounts of the ambivalence and unease
with China, every Vietnamese leader with which Southeast Asians view
must stand up to China, and if you can’t China’s role in the region. Murray
do both at the same time, you don’t Hiebert’s masterly and monumental
deserve to be leader.” Under Beijing’s Shadow is the most
As U.S. President Joe Biden begins detailed and nuanced of the three. Like
his term in office, his team should heed Hiebert, Sebastian Strangio focuses on
those words. Southeast Asia is the China’s relations with countries in the
epicenter of the competition between region in In the Dragon’s Shadow,
whereas David Shambaugh frames
BILAHARI KAUSIKAN is former Permanent
Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Where Great Powers Meet around the
Singapore. theme of U.S.-Chinese competition.
The Arena
China’s size and economic weight no country—spent five years wrangling

doubt stoke anxieties among its South- with China over a railway project to
east Asian neighbors, worries that have secure terms “that they could live with.”
been accentuated by the aggressive foreign I happened to be in Vientiane, the
policy of President Xi Jinping. But those capital of Laos, in early 2016, when the
concerns must be weighed against the ruling Lao People’s Revolutionary Party
necessity of maintaining political and held its Tenth National Congress. A
economic ties with Asia’s biggest power. friend—a party member—told me that
No country in Southeast Asia will accept some senior people would be dismissed
an exclusive relationship with China or for being too pro-China. I was skeptical.
the United States or any other power. But two Politburo members, President
No country will pick a side. and General Secretary Choummaly
Sayasone and Deputy Prime Minister
NOT FOR A MESS OF POTTAGE Somsavat Lengsavad, were indeed sacked.
Many outside observers often assume— Laos has real institutions—most
perhaps unconsciously but still insult- important among them a Leninist-style
ingly—that the countries in the region vanguard party, whose interests are
are all so irredeemably corrupt, termi- paramount—and although it is hemmed
nally naive, or simple-minded that they in by China and does not have much
would sell their national interests for a room to maneuver, it uses those institu-
mess of pottage. The authors of these tions as best it can. Cambodia, by
books don’t make that mistake. Economic contrast, is what Shambaugh calls the
ties are not to be lightly disregarded, only “full-blown Chinese client state” in
but no ASEAN member structures its ASEAN, a description that Hiebert
relations with China solely on the basis echoes. Unlike in Laos, the leadership in
of trade and investments. Nationalism Cambodia is almost totally personalist:
remains a potent political force. Prime Minister Hun Sen has described
Hiebert is particularly adept at expos- support for China as “Cambodia’s
ing the undercurrents, which he aptly political choice,” and his choices are the
describes as “the complex cocktail of hope only ones that matter in Cambodia.
and anxiety,” “anticipation and uneasi- Still, not everyone in Cambodia is
ness,” that lies beneath the surface of brimming with enthusiasm about Hun
China’s relations with its smaller south- Sen’s subservience to China. In January
ern neighbors. This is true even with 2018, the governor of Preah Sihanouk
countries highly dependent on China, wrote a letter to the Interior Ministry
such as Cambodia and Laos. Among the complaining of how Chinese investment
strongest sections of Hiebert’s book are had led to a surge in crime and caused
those in which he examines these “insecurity in the province.” It is a
countries, exposing the complexity of biological inevitability that Hun Sen’s
attitudes toward China and how small personalist leadership must end. Cam-
nations can still exercise agency despite bodia’s status as a Chinese client state
their dependence on Beijing. For instance, may prove to be only a phase.
he notes how the leaders of Laos—an These books make clear that China
“underpopulated and heavily indebted” has serious liabilities in Southeast

Bilahari Kausikan
Asia—although not necessarily the ones make clear, however, in Southeast Asia,
identified by observers in the West. there is as much anxiety about China’s
Some Western analysts, for example, tend activities in another body of water: the
to view warily Beijing’s cultivation of Mekong River, which runs through five
Chinese diaspora communities, seeing of the ten ASEAN member states and
these minorities as a potential fifth does not receive enough attention from
column. Xi has claimed the support of international relations specialists.
“all Chinese” for his version of “the Strangio reminds readers that
Chinese dream,” arousing suspicions “China’s economic and political influence
about China’s intentions. flows down the Mekong River into
But all three books demonstrate that Southeast Asia” and that China’s “valve-
in Southeast Asia, where the relation- like control” of the river’s upper reaches
ships between ethnic Chinese and “gives Beijing considerable control” over
indigenous populations are often fraught its southward flow. China’s dam-building
with underlying tensions, the Chinese projects on the upper Mekong are already
diaspora is not at all an obvious advantage reducing the flow of water downriver.
for Beijing. The authors recognize that The Cambodian and Laotian econo-
there is no simple correlation between mies still largely rely on subsistence
ethnicity and influence. The mere agriculture. Leaders in Cambodia and
presence of ethnic Chinese communities Laos may not care too much about what
in Southeast Asian countries doesn’t China does in the South China Sea, but
necessarily serve China’s interests. they will have to think hard about an
In 2018, during the Malaysian issue that potentially poses an existen-
general election, the Chinese ambassa- tial threat to the livelihoods of their
dor openly campaigned for the leader of own people. If China’s actions on the
the ruling coalition’s ethnic Chinese Mekong do not make Phnom Penh and
party, breaking a fundamental norm of Vientiane rethink how they conduct
diplomatic conduct: noninterference. their relations with China, then other
The ruling coalition lost, and its succes- ASEAN members should reconsider the
sor promptly renegotiated several organization’s relationship with them.
economic projects backed by China.
During a visit to China later that year, MANAGING MISTRUST
Mahathir Mohamad, the new Malaysian Some readers might be surprised by the
prime minister (he had previously suggestion that in an area in the shadow
served as prime minister from 1981 to of a major power, a regional multilateral
2003), pointedly warned that Chinese organization wields real influence. But
actions in the region might resemble a ASEAN does. None of these books deals
“new version of colonialism.” adequately with the organization.
Western observers tend to see Shambaugh’s is the only one that devotes
China’s actions in the South China Sea, a chapter to it. This is not surprising.
where it has steadily encroached on the Few scholars really understand how
maritime borders of its neighbors, as ASEAN works. Its fundamental purpose
the clearest example of Beijing’s expan- is not to solve problems but to manage
sive ambitions. As Hiebert and Strangio mistrust and differences among its
The Arena
members and stabilize a region where mains with any single major power. The
even civility in relations is not to be taken diplomacy of ASEAN and its members is
for granted, thus minimizing the oppor- naturally promiscuous, not monogamous.
tunities for great-power interference. Shambaugh claims that “ASEAN
Even some ASEAN leaders do not states are already conditioned not to
seem to understand this. In July 2012, criticize China publicly or directly.”
when Cambodia was serving as the chair But ASEAN states do not publicly criti-
of the organization, ASEAN for the first cize the United States or any other
time failed to agree on a foreign ministers’ major power, either. They don’t publicly
joint communiqué. Hor Namhong, the criticize others not because they are
Cambodian foreign minister, refused to “conditioned” by anyone but because
accept any compromise on language public criticism forecloses options and
regarding the South China Sea, insisting reduces the room for diplomacy.
that there should be no mention of the Small countries can maneuver only
issue at all. He clearly did so at China’s in the interstices between the relation-
behest; Fu Ying, China’s vice foreign ships of major powers. The essential
minister, barely bothered to conceal her purpose of ASEAN-led forums such as
hovering presence at a meeting she had the annual East Asia Summit, which
no business attending. brings together ASEAN member states
Only a week later, however, Marty with the likes of Australia, India,
Natalegawa, then the foreign minister Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the
of Indonesia, persuaded Cambodia to United States, is to maximize those
join ASEAN’s consensus on the South interstitial spaces, deepening the
China Sea. The text of the statement region’s natural multipolarity.
was largely taken from previously
agreed-on documents, and in some THE AMERICAN COUNTERWEIGHT
instances, the final language was Some external powers, of course, matter
stronger than the compromises Cambo- more than others. Absent the United
dia had rejected just the previous week. States, no combination of other powers
Phnom Penh’s haphazard attempt to can balance China. Not every ASEAN
please Beijing proved to be singularly member will say so in public, but most
clumsy and ultimately only a waste of members seem to recognize this fact.
time. Fu’s bosses in Beijing cannot have At the end of the 1980s, Philippine
been too pleased to have China’s heavy domestic politics and a natural disaster
hand blatantly exposed to no purpose. compelled U.S. forces to vacate Subic
And ever since, Cambodia has not been Bay and Clark Air Base. In 1990,
quite as foolishly intransigent on Singapore, which had long backed a
discussions of the South China Sea. U.S. military presence in Southeast
No country needs to allow Beijing to Asia, concluded a memorandum of
define its national interests in order to understanding, or MOU, with Washing-
maintain a close relationship with China. ton that allowed some U.S. forces to
With the limited exception of Cambodia, use Singaporean facilities. At the time,
no ASEAN member sees a need to neatly several ASEAN members loudly and
align its interests across different do- vehemently criticized the deal. But

Bilahari Kausikan
there was nary a whisper when Singa- meant to encourage its authoritarian
pore signed an agreement regarding regime’s incipient liberalization, was a
greater defense and security cooperation bold stroke. The crafting of the Trans-
with the United States in 2005 or when Pacific Partnership was a major achieve-
the 1990 MOU was renewed in 2019. ment in a region where trade is strategy.
That change of attitude reflects the But soft power, which Obama had in
region’s growing disquiet with Chinese abundance, is inadequate without the
behavior, which all three books docu- exercise of hard power—and Obama
ment. Chinese policy often provokes had little stomach for that. In 2012, his
opposition. For instance, both Hiebert administration brokered a deal between
and Strangio explore in detail the Beijing and Manila regarding Scarbor-
Myitsone dam project in Myanmar. As ough Shoal, in the South China Sea.
Strangio notes, from the moment When China reneged on the terms of
Myanmar signed an agreement for the the deal by refusing to remove its ships
dam with a Chinese state-owned firm in from the disputed area, Washington did
2006, “opposition was nearly universal.” nothing. In 2015, Xi promised Obama
The project was suspended in 2011, but, that China would not militarize the
as Hiebert writes, as late as 2019, “the South China Sea. But when Beijing did
Chinese ambassador’s ham-fisted and so by deploying naval and coast-guard
tone-deaf lobbying [to revive the proj- assets to intimidate ASEAN claimant
ect] prompted renewed protests against states in 2016, the United States again
the dam in cities across the country.” did nothing. Obama’s failure several
A great merit of Shambaugh’s book years before, in 2013, to enforce a redline
is its detailed analysis of how China’s on Syria’s use of chemical weapons had
growing footprint in Southeast Asia has undermined the credibility of U.S.
not led to a reduction of economic or power—and China took notice.
security relations with the United U.S. President Donald Trump’s
States. In some cases, relations with the rejection of the Trans-Pacific Partner-
United States have even expanded. ship on assuming office in 2017 was a
Unlike many other scholars, Shambaugh slap in the face to U.S. friends and
understands that Southeast Asian allies. But not everything he did was
countries do not see the choices avail- necessarily wrong. However incoher-
able to them in binary, zero-sum terms. ently and crudely, Trump seemed to
Shambaugh is, however, only partly instinctively understand the importance
correct when he concludes that “South- of demonstrating hard power. When he
east Asia never had better relations with bombed Syria in 2017 while at dinner
the United States, and vice versa,” than with Xi, he did much to restore the
it did during the Obama era. It was credibility of American might by
comforting to hear an American presi- showing his willingness to use force.
dent speak about making Asia the Trump also explicitly rejected
central concern of U.S. foreign policy. China’s claims in the South China Sea
It was flattering when President Barack and empowered the U.S. Seventh Fleet
Obama made time to attend ASEAN to conduct freedom-of-navigation
meetings. His 2012 visit to Myanmar, operations to challenge them. Freedom
The Arena
of navigation is a right, and other in the region; too passive a stance will
countries do not need China’s permis- elicit fears of abandonment. This
sion to exercise it. By contrast, during cannot be helped. But Biden must avoid
Obama’s second term, the Pentagon and Obama’s mistake of thinking that the
the National Security Council sparred United States needs to de-emphasize
loudly over the wisdom of such opera- competition to secure Beijing’s coopera-
tions, undermining their intended effect. tion on issues such as climate change.
Because he was Obama’s vice presi- As any undergraduate student of
dent, Biden cannot distance himself international relations should know,
easily from what happened on Obama’s cooperation is not a favor one state
watch. Friend and foe alike will scruti- bestows on another. If it is in its inter-
nize Biden’s every move for any sign of est, Beijing will cooperate. States can
weakness. He will likely fine-tune U.S. and do compete and cooperate simulta-
policy, but not fundamentally shift neously. That understanding is funda-
direction, on China and trade. His mentally what Southeast Asia expects
administration will make and commu- of the United States.∂
nicate policy with more coherence and
consideration for friends and allies
than did Trump’s. The atmospherics of
U.S. diplomacy will improve after the
bluster and chaos of the Trump years.
All of this will be welcome. But it
will be for naught if U.S. foreign policy
lapses back into Obama’s reluctance
to use hard power.
Biden should be cautious about
promoting American values in response
to Trump’s indifference to them. Such
values are not necessarily a strategic
asset in Southeast Asia, where they are
not shared by all. “Democracy” is a
protean term, “human rights” is subject
to many interpretations, and Southeast
Asia generally places more emphasis on
the rights of the community than on
those of the individual.
The United States has not deployed
forces on the mainland of Southeast
Asia since the end of the Vietnam War.
As an offshore balancer, the United
States will always find it difficult to
determine just how it should position
itself: too forceful a stance against
China will evoke fears of entanglement

now helping maintain the international
The Stories order in the twenty-first. Employing
the terms that the Chinese Communist
China Tells Party (CCP) uses to describe World War II,
Xi hailed China’s commitment to
“uphold the outcomes of the Chinese
The New Historical People’s War of Resistance Against
Memory Reshaping Japanese Aggression and the World
Chinese Nationalism Antifascist War” and called on all coun-
tries to respect “the international order
and system underpinned by the pur-
Jessica Chen Weiss poses and principles of the UN Charter,
build a new type of international
relations featuring win-win coopera-
China’s Good War: How World War II Is tion, and advance the noble cause of
Shaping a New Nationalism global peace and development.”
BY RANA MIT TER. Harvard Under Xi, the CCP has tried to
University Press, 2020, 336 pp. project an image of seeking peace
through strength, neither picking fights
O
n September 3, 2015, a proces- nor shying away from confrontation. In
sion of Chinese missile launchers recent years, however, China’s increas-
and more than 12,000 soldiers ingly assertive and often abrasive
paraded through Tiananmen Square, in conduct has undercut its attempt to
Beijing, to commemorate the 70th claim international leadership. Xi’s
anniversary of the end of World War II. appeals to the past represent one way to
Some 850,000 civilians were deployed to offset this inherent tension.
patrol Beijing; in parts of the city, busi- But China’s interest in commemo-
ness, traffic, and all wireless communica- rating World War II began much
tions were shut down. But lest anyone get earlier, in the 1980s. The chaos and
the wrong impression, President Xi trauma of the Mao-era famine and the
Jinping delivered an address meant to Cultural Revolution had left scars on
assuage those alarmed by all the firepower the national psyche and had laid bare
and manpower on display. “No matter the flaws of Marxism-Leninism as a
how much stronger it may become, China governing philosophy. When Deng
will never seek hegemony or expansion,” Xiaoping took the helm after Mao
he assured his audience, which included a Zedong’s death in 1976, the CCP stifled
few dozen world leaders. the flames of class struggle and stoked
In fact, Xi argued, China had played capitalist fervor and consumerism
an important part in defeating fascism instead. Yet even as the party adapted
in the twentieth century, and China was its ideology, its search for popular legit-
imacy remained tethered to national-
JESSICA CHEN WEISS is Associate Professor of ism and became increasingly rooted in
Government at Cornell University and the
author of Powerful Patriots: Nationalist Protest China’s role in World War II, which
in China’s Foreign Relations. Chinese leaders routinely held up as
The Stories China Tells
evidence of the party’s defense of the who sat next to U.S. President Franklin
Chinese people in the face of foreign Roosevelt and British Prime Minister
aggression and humiliation. Winston Churchill at the 1943 Cairo
In his insightful new book, the conference, which laid the groundwork
historian Rana Mitter opens a window for the postwar order. It was the Chi-
into the legacy of China’s experience of nese Nationalists, not their Communist
World War II, showing how historical enemies, who helped establish the UN
memory lives on in the present and and the Bretton Woods institutions,
contributes to the constant evolution of including the International Monetary
Chinese nationalism. In this deft, Fund and the World Bank.
textured work of intellectual history, he In playing up China’s role in creat-
introduces readers to the scholars, ing the postwar order, the CCP some-
filmmakers, and propagandists who have times overstates its case. But just
sought to redefine China’s experience of making the case at all marks an impor-
the war. And he shows how their efforts tant shift in Chinese nationalism,
reflect Xi’s interest in portraying China which has often cast China not as a
as a defender of the postwar interna- victor but as a victim, especially of
tional order: a leader present at the Japanese aggression and imperialism.
creation in 1945, rather than a latecomer By presenting China as a key wartime
who gained a seat at the UN only during partner of the Allies and a co-founder
the height of the Cold War. of the postwar order, the Chinese
As historical revisionism goes, this is leadership seeks to suggest “that China
relatively benign, Mitter notes. And in plays a similarly cooperative role in
some ways, the motivations behind it are today’s international community,”
understandable: China’s contributions to writes Mitter. The intended message is
the war against fascism are rarely ac- that China is more interested in reshap-
knowledged in the West. Yet Mitter does ing existing institutions from within
not shy away from exposing some of the than in scrapping them altogether.
political fictions that the CCP imposes on This form of historical revisionism
China’s past—to the detriment of its has another benefit: it deflects attention
attempt to craft a persuasive narrative from the ideological distance that China
about China’s future. has traveled since the postwar years.
Until Mao’s death, China was no
AN EMPTY IDEOLOGY champion of liberal internationalism; it
Under Xi, China has displayed a grow- was a proponent of global communist
ing appetite for global leadership. Xi has revolution. Beijing’s new emphasis on
stated that “China will firmly uphold what Mitter calls the shared “moral
the international system” as “a founding agenda” of defeating fascism conven-
member of the United Nations and the iently glosses over one reason China
first country to put its signature on the can claim to uphold today’s world
UN Charter.” As Mitter notes, Xi order: the CCP has largely abandoned its
conveniently elides that it was Chiang founding ideology. In China today, “the
Kai-shek, the Nationalist leader, and ideological cupboard is relatively bare,”
not Chiang’s Communist rival, Mao, Mitter sharply observes. Under Xi, he

Jessica Chen Weiss
Founding fathers? At the Cairo conference, 1943
writes, China is “still having a hard time challenge conventional narratives,

defining its economic and security Chinese historians and propagandists
vision as anything other than an in- have dutifully parroted the “political
creasingly authoritarian not-America.” shibboleths” of their era, including the
Mitter’s assessment that China is a “direction of Marxist-Leninist dialecti-
U.S. NAT I O NAL ARC H IV ES A N D R E C O R D S AD M I N I ST R AT I O N
“postsocialist state in reality if not in cal materialism.” But “between the
name” is a refreshingly sober alternative political bromides,” Mitter writes, “the
to the Trump administration’s hyper- scholars placed a depth-charge under
bolic assertions that the CCP was seek- the CCP’s traditional historiography.”
ing to bring about a “socialist interna- Marxist thought remains politically
tional order” and a “globe-spanning correct in China today, but Marxist
universal society.” Those accusations arguments are sometimes used in
relied on the fact that official Chinese surprising ways. For example, Jie Dalei,
rhetoric still uses phrases and concepts a scholar of international relations in
rooted in Marxism-Leninism. As Beijing, recently drew on Marxist
Mitter’s book shows, such language principles to argue that “China’s rise is
should not be taken at face value: first and foremost an economic success
Chinese scholars and officials often use story” and that China should use
ideological catch phrases to provide economic diplomacy to avoid “ideologi-
political cover for dissent. In order to cal conflict with the United States.”
AT WAR WITH ITSELF
One of the strengths of Mitter’s book is
that it illuminates how different voices
within China have looked to history to
unearth new truths about the country’s
identity and trajectory—not all of them
favorable to the CCP. Compared with
traditional approaches to telling the
history of the World War II era, these
revisionist currents reveal less about
China’s adversaries than about China
itself. Mitter writes that “much of the
discussion of the war in the public sphere
is not really about Japan at all; it is about
China and what it thinks about its own
identity today, rather than in 1937 or
1945.” The country, he argues “is not so
much in conflict with the Japanese as
with itself, over issues that include
economic inequality and ethnic tensions.”
Along these lines, Mitter relates how
in recent years, Chinese historians have
begun to draw attention to the 1942
famine in Henan Province, which killed
three million people, one of many
chapters in recent Chinese history that
require “humor and a large helping of
amnesia” to face, in the words of the
Chinese novelist Liu Zhenyun. Nation-
alist policies contributed to that famine,
making references to it a relatively safe
way for Chinese novelists, filmmakers,
and bloggers to present veiled critiques
of the Communists’ Great Leap For-
ward, a disastrous experiment in com-
munal industry and agriculture that
produced a famine in which at least 30
million Chinese starved to death.
Since the 1980s, revisionist histories
of the World War II era have encouraged
a more sympathetic view of the Nation-
alists, many of whom were persecuted by
the CCP after the Nationalist leadership
fled to Taiwan in 1949. Mitter follows the

Jessica Chen Weiss
writings and travails of Chinese officials,

more. Mitter has tried to correct that
scholars, and filmmakers who have in this book, building on the scholar-
navigated state censorship and resistance ship of his previous and also excellent
from cultural conservatives to bring to work Forgotten Ally.
light long-ignored stories of the Nation- But foreign countries and their
alists’ contributions to the war, including
citizens hardly pose the biggest obstacle
those of soldiers who fought against the to China’s quest to use history to bur-
invading Japanese army only to be nish its legitimacy: the CCP itself is the
hounded and marginalized under Com- main barrier. Even when the party
munist rule. In recent years, such storiesallows a more thorough investigation of
have become part of the official narrative.
the wartime past, it still ruthlessly
State-approved films, museums, and the suppresses narratives—whether about
2015 military parade have all incorpo- Hong Kong, Tibet, or Xinjiang—that
rated the Nationalist war effort—making challenge its increasingly ethnonational-
sure, of course, to portray it as having ist definition of who and what belongs
taken place under CCP leadership. Mitter to China. And as filmmakers navigate
aptly describes this as an “uneasy the party’s limited tolerance for ambi-
balance between allowing a more inclusive guity, the result is often big-budget films
history and trying not to damage the that emphasize the scale and horror of
myths of the CCP’s history.” World War II without the kind of
One is left wondering why the CCP nuance that would humanize its victims
has policed history strictly at some and perpetrators. For many Western
times but not at others. Mitter hints at critics, these films provide too much
some international factors driving the “loud spectacle and cheap sentiment,”
CCP’s “grudging relaxation of interpre- writes Mitter, describing the critical
tations of the war,” including its interest
responses to Zhang Yimou’s Flowers of
in cultivating ties with Taiwan and in War, which chronicles Japan’s brutal
reminding Japan of its unsettled war- occupation of Nanjing, and Feng
time past. Ultimately, however, a lack of Xiaogang’s Back to 1942, which recounts
clarity on this question may simply the Henan famine.
reflect the reality that under the CCP’s Even more important is the simple
rule, the shifting boundaries of what is fact that China’s growing authoritarian-
permissible are rarely easy to discern. ism is at odds with the dominant postwar
narrative in Europe and the United States
ITS OWN WORST ENEMY that explains why the war was fought: to
The CCP faces an uphill battle in selling save democracy from fascism. As an
its newly revised version of China’s increasingly dictatorial party-state, the
World War II history to audiences CCP obviously cannot embrace that
outside China. Part of the problem lies version of history or find an easy way to
in Western historiography and preju- insert China into it. As Mitter percep-
dice, Mitter writes: China’s role in the tively observes, “keeping the world safe
war has been neglected for so long in for consumerist authoritarianism is hardly
Western countries that few people in a very attractive offer in the twenty-first
those places have an interest in learning century,” especially for the leading
The Stories China Tells
democracies that continue to put the fight nuclear proliferation while also parrying
for freedom at the center of their own the effects of China’s growing authori-
national ethos. Indeed, the CCP’s growing tarianism and pugilistic nationalism.
surveillance state and brutal “reeducation” Beijing’s attempt to recast the history
and internment camps in Xinjiang have of World War II might help them do so.
led many outside observers to accuse Xi Without endorsing the CCP’s version of
of reviving fascism. history or excusing Beijing’s aggression
There is also some risk in Beijing’s abroad and abuses at home, leaders in
strategy of recasting China’s history in Washington and elsewhere could more
order to influence perceptions of its explicitly acknowledge China’s contri-
present and potential future role in the butions to ending World War II and
world. The more China portrays itself creating the existing order. Doing so
as a defender of the postwar order, the might mitigate the growing sense
more it might spur a sense among among Chinese citizens that the United
Chinese citizens that their country is States and its partners will never allow
entitled to more influence and an ever China to play a leading role on the
more central role in international affairs world stage. That recognition could in
in the decades to come. The rest of the turn help Washington press the CCP to
world, however, might not play along. pull back on its campaign to intimidate
And should China encounter concerted, and punish its critics abroad. An agree-
unified opposition to its global ambi- ment of that kind would not solve many
tions, the CCP—and the world—might of the problems plaguing relations
have to contend with a growing sense of between the United States and China.
grievance, disappointment, and resent- But it is precisely the kind of carefully
ment among the Chinese people. finessed arrangement that Washington
This dynamic goes beyond Beijing’s and Beijing will have to get much better
efforts to recast history, of course. Over at crafting if they are to achieve any-
the past four years, China positioned thing resembling peaceful coexistence.∂
itself as a defender of international
institutions and agreements threatened
by the Trump administration, from the
World Health Organization to the Paris
climate accord. At the same time,
however, Beijing has tried to diminish
the role of universal values in the
international order, instead elevating
economic development and state
security over individual political rights.
For China’s neighbors and rivals, the
CCP’s mixture of cooperation and
confrontation defines the “China
challenge”: how to work with Beijing on
controlling the COVID-19 pandemic,
slowing climate change, and preventing

themselves. Pollution was reconceived
Market Value as a tradable good. Spending money
was declared to be a form of free speech.
The evangelists of free exchange
Can Capitalism Serve insisted that unregulated capitalism and
Democracy? liberal democracy were symbiotic. A
half century later, it is getting harder to
Binyamin Appelbaum find people who still think that is true.
There is an ineluctable tension between
property and democracy: political free-
dom is, among other things, the danger-
Freedom From the Market: America’s Fight ous idea that the polity gets to define
to Liberate Itself From the Grip of the property rights. Maintaining a market
Invisible Hand economy and a liberal democracy re-
BY MIKE KONCZAL. New Press, 2021, quires a careful balancing act. And it is
256 pp. clear that Americans of all political
persuasions are losing interest in forg-
I
t has become a matter of general ing the necessary compromises.
agreement among citizens of the On the right, there is a growing
richest country on earth that things willingness to sacrifice democracy. As the
are not going so well. The United States historian Quinn Slobodian pointed out
in its 245th year is an ailing nation—so- in his 2018 book, Globalists, defenders
cially, politically, and economically. In of property rights are not opponents of
the recent presidential election, one government involvement in the econ-
political party promised to “make Amer- omy; rather, they have sought, with
ica great again—again.” The other rallied considerable success, to encase property
supporters to “build back better.” Nobody in a fortress of laws expressly designed
talked about “morning in America” or to limit the power of the polity. This
anything similarly sunny. Everyone can defense of privilege is understandably
see that it is dark outside. infuriating to the many Americans who
During the country’s last national lack the economic security to provide
funk, in the 1970s, Americans latched for their families or the opportunity to
on to the idea that the market would set pursue their dreams. It fuels the reflexive
them free. The result was an era of hostility toward the market that increas-
religious reverence for property rights ingly colors policy debates among liberals.
and markets in everything, as a solution In his new book, Freedom From the
not just to the country’s economic Market, Mike Konczal, the director of
problems but to its social and political the Progressive Thought Program at
problems, too. People were reclassified the Roosevelt Institute, a think tank
as a form of capital and told to invest in focused on economic inequality, goes
beyond arguments in favor of regulat-
BINYAMIN APPELBAUM is a member of the ing markets or establishing new govern-
New York Times editorial board and the author
of The Economists’ Hour: False Prophets, Free ment programs to redistribute income.
Markets, and the Fracture of Society. “This book,” he writes, “argues that true
Market Value
freedom requires keeping us free from in the spotlight is the idea that the
the market.” In his account, the market government should give people money,
economy isn’t an engine of broad perhaps in the form of a universal basic
prosperity, and it certainly isn’t comple- income. But giving people money is not
mentary to political freedom. “Market the same thing as ensuring that people
dependence,” he declares, “is a pro- have health care. Another corrective is
found state of unfreedom.” to provide services deemed essential.
Konczal provides a compelling Public schools are a notable example.
account of the problems with markets. Konczal is a partisan of the second
But his indictment misses the ways in approach. He wants the government to
which the expansion of the market endow all Americans with the basics nec-
economy has often produced precisely essary to participate fully in a modern
the kinds of changes he seeks. For all democratic society, a list that includes
the skepticism of the market on the left, health care, a college education, and
it remains an important tool. broadband Internet. He argues that the
government must do the job because the
PRECONDITIONS FOR FREEDOM market won’t. “The distribution of goods
The progressive conception of freedom in a market economy doesn’t match what
is the product of several centuries of we need to live free lives,” he writes.
trial and error. First came the assertion Many policy books present theoreti-
that people are entitled to freedom from cal arguments lightly studded with
various forms of oppression. That is the anecdotes. One gets the feeling that the
kind of freedom that was enshrined in baker begrudged each chocolate chip he
the Bill of Rights. But equality before the put into the pound cake. Konczal’s book
law isn’t worth much without the is tastier. He built a name for himself as
ability to participate in writing those laws, a blogger in the years after the 2008
so next came the assertion that freedom financial crisis, and he knows how to
requires universal suffrage. But partici- narrate. His book is a retelling of U.S.
pation isn’t worth much unless people history as a long struggle to limit the
can participate as equals. As U.S. President role of the market. “For two centuries,”
Franklin Roosevelt proclaimed in 1944, he writes, “Americans have been fight-
“We have come to a clear realization of ing for freedom from the market.” The
the fact that true individual freedom people have won some victories: food
cannot exist without economic security stamps for children, unemployment
and independence.” benefits for workers, Medicare for the
The problem with relying on a elderly. Lately, however, the war hasn’t
market economy to deliver economic been going so well. Increasingly, the
security and independence is encapsu- quality of life is determined by the ability
lated in an old joke: “Ah yes, like the to pay—for health insurance, education,
Ritz Hotel, open to rich and poor housing. The wealthy live well, and the
alike”—that is, although everyone may poor struggle. A major obstacle, in
be allowed to buy what he needs, not Konczal’s view, is that Americans have
everyone can afford to do so. One been taught to equate markets with
proposed corrective enjoying a moment freedom and to regard government as a

Binyamin Appelbaum
constraint on markets and freedom. home—at least those who couldn’t afford
“Battles for the future of our country and childcare without a government subsidy.
society are not won on arguments about After the war, they successfully forced
market failures, on the balance sheets of the closure of the federally subsidized
accounts, or on narrowly tailored, daycare centers. In 1954, when Congress
incremental solutions,” he writes in his introduced a tax deduction for childcare
conclusion. “They are won on arguments expenses, it was initially restricted to
about freedom.” To win, progressives women who could demonstrate that they
need to reclaim the banner of freedom. needed paid work. Konczal is right to
argue that childcare should be readily
NO ESCAPING THE MARKET available in the United States today. But
Although Konczal’s commitment to a public support for childcare is not just a
broader and more muscular definition matter of providing people with the
of freedom is admirable, he ultimately freedom to participate fully in society or
misjudges the relationship between in democracy. It also affords the freedom
markets and freedom. Reading Kon- to participate in the market economy.
czal’s book, one is often struck that the The freedom to participate in the
Americans he portrays were fighting market can also strengthen democracy.
not to escape from the market but to Konczal opens his narrative with one of
participate in it more fully. They saw the formative episodes in the creation of
government not as an alternative to the the modern United States: the redistri-
market but as a means of shaping it. bution of western lands. He recounts
In one chapter, set during World War II, the ferment on the densely populated
Konczal tells of the creation of almost Eastern Seaboard that produced the
three dozen daycare centers in Richmond, Homestead Act, the legislation that
California, to tend to the children of allowed Americans to claim enough land
women employed in the city’s sprawling for a family farm. “Are you an American
shipyards. Families that used the centers, citizen?” brayed Horace Greeley’s
or the more than 3,100 other wartime New-York Daily Tribune. “Then you are a
daycare facilities that opened across the joint-owner of the public lands. Why not
United States, paid only a nominal fee. take enough of your property to provide
The government covered the balance. yourself a home? Why not vote yourself
Konczal describes this as an instance of a farm?” Americans did just that: the
Americans successfully escaping the polity established rules for the distribu-
tyranny of market forces: the government tion of common property. According to
provided mothers with a service other- Konczal, more than 46 million Ameri-
wise unavailable or unaffordable. But the cans are descended from the homestead-
government acted so women could ers who claimed pieces of the land.
work—and it did so by paying other Konczal argues that the Homestead
women to work in the daycare centers. Act reflected “an unapologetic demand to
Opponents of the daycare program keep something away from the market.”
were the ones who sought to preserve a In fact, it was the means by which much
space outside the market. They argued of the continent was commodified. The
that mothers should remain in the United States took land occupied by
Market Value
New to market: homesteaders in Custer County, Nebraska, 1889
Native Americans and redefined it as CAPITALISM IN THE SERVICE

private property for white Americans. OF DEMOCRACY
Many proponents and beneficiaries of The appeal of free-market rhetoric rests
the Homestead Act envisioned yeomanry partly in its simplicity: the government
S O L O M O N D. B U T C H E R / N E B R A S K A S T A T E H I S T O R I C A L S O C I E T Y
as an alternative to wage labor, but not should protect economic freedom,

as an escape from the market economy: narrowly defined as property rights, and
corn, wheat, and other cash crops pre- facilitate free exchange. Progressives have
dominated from the outset. The Home- struggled to articulate an alternative.
stead Act should be seen as a lesson in What should Americans want instead?
the power of government to construct One powerful idea is to invert the
markets, and in the lasting consequences subordination of political freedom to
of its choices. Millions of smallholders economic freedom. In the philosopher
gained a footing in the market economy, Debra Satz’s formulation, “Democratic
giving greater substance to the egalitar- societies depend on the ability of their
ian rhetoric of the country’s founders. citizens to operate as equals.” Therefore,
At the same time, the exclusion of where “markets undermine or block
Native Americans from their lands, and egalitarian relationships between people,
of Black people from land ownership, there is a case for market regulation,
still weighs on American society and even when such markets are otherwise
American democracy. efficient.” Most market activities

Binyamin Appelbaum
wouldn’t be affected by such a principle. home on Saturday. They wanted to place

Satz also notes, importantly, that some capitalism in the service of freedom.
kinds of market activities serve to The Trump years provided Ameri-
strengthen democracy. cans with a brutal lesson in the impor-
In 1905, the Supreme Court, in tance of public policy. The dawn of a
Lochner v. New York, struck down a new administration offers a chance to
state law that said bakers could not work act on that lesson. Americans need
more than ten hours a day or 60 hours a government help to obtain an educa-
week. The majority held that the law tion, to care for themselves and for
interfered with the freedom of workers family members, to pursue economic
and employers to make voluntary opportunities. But progressives will
arrangements. In a famous dissent, squander the moment if they frame
Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr., those goals as a fight against markets.
pointed out that the status quo was an What Americans need is a fuller meas-
artificial construct. Every market has ure of freedom—the freedom to partici-
rules; it is just a question of what those pate in democratic society and in the
rules should be. “Holmes was pointing marketplace.∂
out that a truly neutral market was a lie,”
Konczal writes. By barring New York
from acting, the Court wasn’t preserving
the purity of markets. It was siding with
employers. It already allowed various
forms of interference, such as bank-
ruptcy and limited shareholder liability.
“The only time the courts would call
foul was when laws provided better
protections for workers.”
Konczal describes the rise of the
labor movement and its eventual success
in the long battles to restrict the work-
day and the workweek as an example of
the antimarket tendency in American
life. Workers, he writes, “wanted a space
and time free from the marketplace.”
There is another way to portray the
same story, however. Union leaders and
activists are justly celebrated as “the
people who brought you the weekend.”
But the value of the weekend is that it
follows the workweek. Americans
already enjoyed the freedom to refrain
from working. What they wanted was
the freedom to work and then to go
home at the end of the workday and stay
Independence
Vision
Scholarship
Policy
Nonpartisanship
Debate
A Century of Ideas.
Analysis
Deliberation
Innovation
For 100 years, the Council on Foreign Impact
Relations has championed bold ideas,
Diplomacy
expert research, and spirited debate
about America’s role in the world. Thank
you for participating in that conversation
and for trusting us to convene it.
Join us in celebrating the last century

and welcoming the next: cfr.org/100
Purpose
feature of great-power politics: think, for
Recent Books instance, of Anglo-German and Franco-
German relations in the decades before
World War I. But Rosato concludes that
Political and Legal even in more favorable situations (such as
relations between the United Kingdom
G. John Ikenberry and the United States at the turn of the
twentieth century), leaders were never
able to acquire “first hand information” of
Intentions in Great Power Politics: the other state’s true intentions. Rosato’s
Uncertainty and the Roots of Conflict argument verges on a simple truism:
BY SEBASTIAN ROSATO. Yale there are inherent epistemological limits
University Press, 2021, 376 pp. on what a state can know for sure about
another state. His theory yields a “de-
O
ne of the oldest insights in the pressing prediction” regarding U.S.-
study of international relations Chinese relations, which he sees as
is that peaceful relations among burdened with cultural, ideological, and
great powers hinge on trust. In this institutional barriers to understanding
engaging book, Rosato surveys great-power each other’s intentions.
relations across the modern era and
concludes that it is mistrust—not trust— After Democracy: Imagining Our
that is deeply rooted and ubiquitous. His Political Future
key claim is that a state can build trust BY ZIZI PAPACHARISSI. Yale
only when it has credible knowledge of University Press, 2021, 176 pp.
another state’s true intentions and
that, even under the best of circumstances, Liberal democracy has fallen on hard
acquiring such knowledge is difficult. times, besieged by populist and authori-
Obviously, mistrust is famously a defining tarian challengers. In this fascinating, if
It is with sadness that we note the recent passing of RICHARD COOPER, who had been the
magazine’s regular reviewer of books on economics since 1993. For decades, Cooper taught
international economics, first at Yale and later at Harvard, training three generations of
the best minds in the field. Cooper was not only a scholar but also a practitioner, serving
in a number of high-level government positions during his long career, including as U.S.
undersecretary of state for economic affairs. We were honored to publish him for so many
years, and we will miss his insight, his concision, and his wisdom.
We are lucky to have as his replacement BARRY EICHENGREEN, whose first set of re-
views appear in this issue. Eichengreen is the George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee pro-
fessor of economics and political science at the University of California, Berkeley, where he
has taught since 1987. He is also a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic
Research and a research fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research. His books in-
clude The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era and
Hall of Mirrors: The Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the Uses—and Misuses—of History.
Recent Books
slightly meandering, rumination on the “grand transitions”—in population,

future of democracy, Papacharissi sees agriculture, energy, economics, and the
glimmers of hope amid growing obstacles. environment. Smil has an eye for
From its ancient roots in classical interesting details, but he is better at
Greece, government “by the people” has showing the interconnections, turning
repeatedly been in crisis, faced extinc- points, and pathways of societal change
tion, and enjoyed moments of rebirth. than in pinpointing cause and effect.
Papacharissi is particularly interested in Nevertheless, he tells a remarkable story
the impact on citizens of the information of the human capacity to innovate,
revolution and Internet-based communi- build, and integrate societies across vast
cation platforms. Social media tools distances. He worries, however, that
such as Facebook and Twitter appear to economic inequality and the rapid degra-
provide a “public space” for conversa- dation of the environment will overwhelm
tions, but not a “public sphere” in which the human talent for adaptation.
citizens can engage with one another as
members of a political community. The The Frontlines of Peace: An Insider’s Guide
book is organized as a sort of travelogue, to Changing the World
studded with interviews with people BY SEVERINE AUTESSERRE. Oxford
from a variety of countries. Across diverse University Press, 2021, 240 pp.
political settings, these interviewees
emphasize that they value democracy Through memoir and reportage,
not just as a framework for the protec- Autesserre tells the story of international
tion of rights but also as a way of recon- peacekeeping and humanitarian relief
ciling differences and preserving the operations through her own eyes and
greater good of the country. Papacharissi those of aid workers and victims of
distills his conversations into an agenda violence. Drawn from several decades
for the repair of the liberal democratic of experience in war-torn countries such
way of life: invest more in civic education, as Afghanistan, the Democratic Repub-
reduce economic inequality, and foster a lic of the Congo, and Kosovo,
more public interest media environment Autesserre paints a harrowing portrait
that prizes the truth. of nongovernmental organizations,
diplomats, and peacekeepers struggling
Grand Transitions: How the Modern to resolve conflicts. Along the way, she
World Was Made sharply critiques the top-down, outsider-
BY VACLAV SMIL. Oxford University led approach to international peace-
Press, 2021, 384 pp. making, or what she calls “Peace, Inc.,”
in which UN and Western diplomats run
Smil offers a sweeping account of the the show. Autesserre argues that in
deep material forces that have shaped these sorts of operations, outside
the modern world. He argues that the peacekeepers and aid officials tend to
centuries-long move of humanity from interact primarily with national-level
traditional agricultural societies into a political and military leaders and rarely
more complex, globe-spanning indus- venture into the local conflict zones or
trial civilization has been driven by five come equipped with in-depth knowledge

Recent Books
of the history, politics, and culture of minded states committed to a shared

the countries they seek to help. vision of international order, multilateral
Autesserre calls her preferred alterna- institutions will increasingly be shaped
tive “Peaceworld,” a bottom-up ap- by short-term transactional politics.
proach in which aid workers immerse
themselves in local areas and build ties
to grassroots organizations. The book’s Economic, Social, and
evocative and often moving stories all Environmental
illustrate her core insight: that “peace
communities” are built at the local
level, neighborhood by neighborhood.
Barry Eichengreen
Ideology and International Institutions

BY ERIK VOETEN. Princeton The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing
University Press, 2021, 224 pp. Societies, Waning Inequality, and an
Inflation Revival
In this impressive book, Voeten argues BY CHARLES GOODHART AND
that although multilateral bodies such as MANOJ PRADHAN. Palgrave
the World Trade Organization may Macmillan, 2020, 260 pp.
appear to be “neutral” and “universalis-
I
tic,” they more often than not reflect the n this thought-provoking book,
values and ideological orientations of Goodhart and Pradhan seek to explain
their most powerful sponsors. The U.S.- the rising inequality, stagnant
led postwar multilateral system provided wages, and disinflationary pressures of
a framework for an open and rules-based recent years. They describe how the
global economy, but it also privileged the integration into the world economy of
classical liberal values of private prop- China and other emerging markets,
erty, individual rights, and limited with their initially young populations,
government. The collapse of the Soviet added billions of workers to the global
Union ended the Cold War era of labor force. In the advanced economies,
ideological contestation, but Voeten sees this disadvantaged less skilled workers,
U.S.-style liberalism facing a new reduced the power of workers and labor
challenge from an upsurge in national- unions, and increased inequality. In
ism, Islamism, populism, authoritarian- addition, a flood of new supply into
ism, and state-led capitalism. The book’s global markets, together with China’s
primary contribution is how it identifies high savings, put a lid on global infla-
the ideological elements of interstate bar- tion. But as populations now age, includ-
gaining over multilateral rules and ing in China, and as the high savings
institutions. Voeten concedes that many rates of more elderly populations come
of the political disputes that take place in down, the same dynamics will run in
multilateral forums are old-fashioned reverse. This will make for falling inequal-
parochial struggles over the distribution ity, rising wages, and higher inflation.
of economic gains. He argues that in the Perhaps, as the authors argue, demogra-
absence of a dominant coalition of like- phy is destiny. Still, one wonders
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whether politicians might also have The Mismeasure of Progress: Economic

something to say about what happens to Growth and Its Critics
the distribution of wealth and income BY STEPHEN J. MACEKURA.
and whether central banks will really be University of Chicago Press, 2020,
powerless to shape the course of inflation. 320 pp.
The Double X Economy: The Epic Gross national product is a familiar

Potential of Women’s Empowerment measure of the size of an economy, and
BY LINDA SCOT T. Farrar, Straus and the change in GNP is a familiar measure
Giroux, 2020, 384 pp. of the rate of economic growth. But
decisions about what to include in GNP
Scott has crafted an impassioned account and how to value those components
of the personal and societal costs of turn on how economic activity is
denying economic opportunity to women. conceptualized by the social scientists
The book is part synthesis of scholarship and statisticians responsible for
and part polemic—not a bad thing constructing the measure. Macekura
when one is addressing a wide audience. traces the genesis and trajectory of the
Her analysis is informed by fieldwork in idea over the course of the twentieth
Ghana, South Africa, and Uganda and century. He shows how the invention of
also by reams of data from international GNP encouraged a focus on aggregate
institutions and nongovernmental economic growth as the objective of
organizations. Scott documents the costs, economic policy and describes the long
in terms of equity but also in terms of line of skeptics who have criticized GNP
economic development and growth, of for neglecting nonmarket work, ignor-
gender gaps in education, pay, and access ing the distribution of income, failing
to finance, shedding light on the societal to account for resource depletion and
origins of these disparities. She shows how environmental degradation, and focus-
simple interventions in developing ing on output rather than human
countries—providing sanitary pads to welfare or happiness. The reader comes
encourage school attendance by young away persuaded that GNP, although an
women, for instance—can make a imperfect summary indicator of the
difference. As for why such interventions state of an economy, plays an outsize
are not more extensive, Scott points to role in contemporary conceptions of
patriarchal societies that deny women a economic policy and performance.
seat at the decision-making table. She
applies the same critique to advanced Angrynomics
countries and to the economics profession BY ERIC LONERGAN AND MARK
itself, which she indicts for its limited BLYTH. Agenda, 2020, 192 pp.
attention to issues of gender inequality.
Framed as a dialogue between a hedge
fund manager (Lonergan) and a political
scientist (Blyth), this equally entertaining
and rigorous book locates the roots of
today’s angry, antiestablishment politics

Recent Books
in macroeconomic and financial insta- chaos and arbitrariness of the war:

bility, technological change, and rising soldiers die as they enter a supposedly
inequality, which together have created friendly Afghan base, are maimed step-
a sense of economic exclusion and ping on mines, try to keep wounded
insecurity. But despite emphasizing the colleagues alive as they wait for an evacua-
economic origins of political move- tion helicopter to arrive, and inadver-
ments, the authors build less than one tently call in an airstrike on a hospital,
might expect on the extensive scholarly killing doctors and patients. Donati
literature on economic populism and speaks with military wives who recall the
give short shrift to explanations that moment they heard about the death of
focus on culture and identity politics. their partner and with veterans trying to
The book is strongest when it offers make their way in civilian life. Her
novel policies for stabilizing the econ- vivid, uncompromising reporting presents
omy and for addressing stagnation and U.S. politicians and senior military
insecurity, including two-tier interest commanders as disconnected from the
rates (one at which the central bank reality of the war as they flounder in
lends, and another that it pays on deposits search of a satisfactory way out of it.
or reserves), cash transfers to house-
holds (“helicopter money”), and a Adaptation Under Fire: How Militaries
national wealth fund to tackle inequality. Change in Wartime
BY DAVID BARNO AND NORA
BENSAHEL. Oxford University Press,
Military, Scientific, and 2020, 440 pp.
Technological
U.S. armed forces are commonly
described as inflexible, too easily caught
Lawrence D. Freedman out by the unexpected features of a
conflict. Barno and Bensahel trace the
factors that enable more nimble adapt-
Eagle Down: The Last Special Forces ability: technology, shrewd leadership,
Fighting the Forever War and sound doctrine. They examine how
BY JESSICA DONATI. PublicAffairs, these factors have helped account for
2021, 320 pp. U.S. military successes and failures in
operations dating back to World War II.
A
lmost two decades after the 9/11 U.S. armed forces adapted well in
attacks, U.S. Special Forces are learning to work with the Northern
still fighting in Afghanistan and Alliance in Afghanistan in 2001 and with
trying to keep the Taliban at bay. This tribal coalitions during the so-called
long war consists of numerous small Anbar Awakening in Iraq in 2005.
engagements, barely noticed back home Then, however, General David McKier-
unless the casualties are unusually heavy nan in Afghanistan and General George
or the government in Kabul loses Casey in Iraq struggled to adjust their
control of some vital city. Covering the tactics to conditions on the ground and
fighting since 2015, Donati captures the so failed to stem the tide of violence.
Recent Books
The authors warn of the coming radical system, and shows GCHQ’s operational
changes in the strategic environment, importance to the conduct of colonial
including increasing tension with China, and postcolonial conflicts, including the
and argue that the U.S. military has to 1982 Falklands War.
transform the way it goes about its
business, resisting doctrinal rigidity and Diagnosing Dissent: Hysterics, Deserters,
organizational inertia and finding new and Conscientious Objectors in Germany
kinds of leaders. This is a thoughtful and During World War One
informed analysis, even though it has BY REBECCA AYAKO BENNET TE.
quite a narrow focus on land forces and Cornell University Press, 2020, 240 pp.
doesn’t consider the political contexts of
U.S. military operations, especially in German veterans of World War I were
conflicts in which the United States has treated callously when they exhibited
had to work closely with local forces. symptoms of shell shock, labeled “war
tremblers” or branded as hysterics and
Behind the Enigma: The Authorised cowards. Some psychiatrists described
History of GCHQ, Britain’s Secret Cyber- forms of conscientious objection—defy-
Intelligence Agency ing conscription and refusing to fight on
BY JOHN F ERRIS. Bloomsbury, 2020, ethical grounds—as a medical pathol-
848 pp. ogy. All of this foreshadowed the later
practices of the Nazis. Drawing from
Given that until recently the British meticulous research into patient records,
government refused to acknowledge the Bennette complicates this picture. She
existence of its World War II–era code- shows that many psychiatrists were actu-
breaking organization, this informative ally more sympathetic than previously
official history of the Government imagined to those patients suffering
Communications Headquarters, or from the trauma of their time on the
GCHQ, one of the United Kingdom’s lead- front. Her investigations also reveal that
ing intelligence agencies, is remarkable. many more Germans were conscientious
Ferris’s narrative takes on the breaking of objectors than had been assumed.
the Nazi’s Enigma code at Bletchley Park Although they could be harsh and dismis-
during World War II and the efforts to sive, many psychiatrists provided a
replicate that achievement during the space in which traumatized veterans
Cold War. GCHQ now plays a major role and dissidents could express themselves.
in all areas of cybersecurity. Its activities,
along with those of the U.S. National Ho Chi Minh Trail, 1964–1973: Steel
Security Agency, were compromised Tiger, Barrel Roll, and the Secret Air War
when a former NSA contractor, Edward in Vietnam and Laos
Snowden, revealed them in 2013. Ferris’s BY PETER A. DAVIES. Osprey, 2020,
account avoids sensationalism. It pro- 96 pp.
vides a careful judgment of Bletchley
Park’s impact, points to how signals intel- The publisher Osprey’s short books on
ligence during the Cold War usefully particular military campaigns can be
illuminated the lower levels of the Soviet invaluable for students of contemporary

Recent Books
warfare. They feature matter-of-fact subtleties of policy debates, and convey

descriptions, burnished with plentiful “what it’s like to be the president of the
illustrations and maps. The Ho Chi Minh United States.” Although he has suc-
Trail, which helped supply North ceeded in each, these multiple ambitions
Vietnamese and Vietcong forces during mean that what was intended to be a
the Vietnam War, certainly deserves a single-volume, 500-page memoir ended
volume of its own. The trail was a up being 700 pages and only covering
logistical marvel, dipping in and out of the first 30 months of his presidency. The
Cambodia and Laos, running more than book’s length is also the result of
12,000 miles over mountains and through thoughtful but unfinished conversations
jungles, and employing over 100,000 he holds with himself on nearly every
workers. The route sustained North subject. Phrases such as “To this day I
Vietnam’s war effort and was kept open wonder . . . whether I should have been
despite numerous bids to shut it down. bolder” appear on page after page.
Davies outlines the various U.S. at- Obama began writing only a month after
tempts—including airstrikes and the the end of his eight-year tenure as
employment of sensors and physical president. Had he taken longer to digest
barriers—to stop the North Vietnamese the experience, more of these open-ended
from using the trail. He concentrates on reflections might have reached conclu-
the actions of the U.S. Air Force, neglect- sions. Perhaps that will come in the next
ing the contribution of U.S. Navy and installment, which may also address some
Marine flyers. Despite the military and of the odd omissions in this volume,
technological prowess of the Americans, such as the nuclear policy issues to which
the North Vietnamese were sufficiently he devoted so much effort while in office.
resourceful to keep their supplies moving.
The American Crisis: What Went Wrong.
How We Recover.
The United States BY THE WRITERS OF THE
ATLANTIC. Simon & Schuster, 2020,
Jessica T. Mathews 576 pp.
This collection of some of the best recent

writing in The Atlantic delays discussion
A Promised Land of U.S. President Donald Trump and
BY BARACK OBAMA. Crown, 2020, Trumpism until the second half of the
768 pp. book. It begins with considerations of
the destabilizing forces that have grown
O
bama is a gifted writer. His in recent decades: widening economic
prose is lean, supple, graphic, inequality, declining social mobility,
and lively. In a dozen words, he structural racism, and a fractured health-
can snap a memorable picture of a care system still impervious to full
political interlocutor or a foreign leader. reform. The next set of essays turn to
He set out to recount what happened politics, parsing the roles of individuals
during his presidency, elucidate the (such as former Republican House
Recent Books
Speaker Newt Gingrich and the former Republican determination to repeal the
Trump aide Paul Manafort) and broader law and replace it with an undefined
sources of political dysfunction, includ- alternative has prevented legislators from
ing voter suppression, gerrymandering, correcting the inevitable defects in a
expanded presidential powers, and social massive new government program,
media. The collection of pieces on leaving the law weaker than it should be.
Trump, his family, his advisers, and his Cohn traces the debate over the ACA as it
policies includes great reporting and unfolded in think tanks, lobbyist offices,
gripping insights, especially in the legislative committees, and the Oval
shortest piece in the book, “The Cruelty Office with impressive clarity and in an
Is the Point,” by Adam Serwer, which engaging, highly readable narrative that
was originally published in 2018 but is makes arcane issues accessible. His own
equally applicable to the emotions let bias in favor of universal coverage is
loose in the attack on the U.S. Capitol in explicit, but he treats fairly the philosoph-
January. The last section, weak only by ical and economic arguments of the
comparison to what precedes it, turns to opposing view. This valuable history will
the future, not so much with policy help inform the continuing battle for an
recommendations as with reminders of efficient, equitable, and affordable U.S.
the “tools still at our disposal—values, health-care system.
outlooks, attitudes, instincts.” This
volume is a superb resource in helping America in the World: A History of U.S.
Americans understand how they have Diplomacy and Foreign Policy
arrived where they are now. BY ROBERT B. ZOELLICK. Twelve,
2020, 560 pp.
The Ten Year War: Obamacare and the
Unfinished Crusade for Universal Coverage In approaching his ambitious subject,
BY JONATHAN COHN. St. Martin’s Zoellick combines a practitioner’s
Press, 2021, 416 pp. wisdom, gleaned from half a dozen jobs
in senior government posts, with schol-
The “ten year war” of the title refers to arly research and deep knowledge of
the decade from U.S. President Barack how Washington works. The book is not
Obama’s election in 2008 to the defeat of quite what the title promises, instead
the House Republican majority in 2018, offering a highly selective retelling of
in which no political issue was more notable incidents in U.S. diplomacy. The
decisive than the Affordable Care Act, rationale for what Zoellick includes and
the most important piece of legislation in omits is not always clear. His chapters
the country in half a century. Cohn on the pathbreaking contributions of
recognizes that the law is “highly flawed, three secretaries of state—Elihu Root,
distressingly compromised, [and] woe- who served under President Theodore
fully incomplete,” but he nonetheless Roosevelt and championed international
credits the act with representing a major law, Charles Evans Hughes, who served
step toward establishing affordable health in the 1920s and secured agreements on
care as a universal right, as it is in every arms control, and Cordell Hull, who
other developed country. Unrelenting served under President Franklin Roo-

Recent Books
sevelt and helped lay the groundwork for exits from power, but . . . remain as
the postwar liberal order—are particu- traces within the body of their people”
larly interesting, as is his treatment of could not be more timely.
the science administrator Vannevar Bush,
whose work under Roosevelt during
World War II laid the foundation for Western Europe
later U.S. preeminence in science and
technology. But in most cases, the Andrew Moravcsik
important subject areas these discus-
sions open up do not reappear. Dismis-
sive of doctrines, Zoellick points
instead to five enduring “traditions” that Quo vadis Hungaria? (Where Is Hungary
should guide U.S. policymakers: the Heading?): Foreign Policy Dilemmas and
need for U.S. dominance in North Strategic Vision
America, the importance of trade and BY ISTVAN SZENT-IVANYI.
technology to national security and the TRANSLATED BY ANDY CLARK.
economy, the value of alliances, the Republikon Intezet, 2020, 180 pp.
influence of public opinion and Con-
S
gress on policymaking, and Washington’s zent-Ivanyi, a Hungarian opposi-
special leadership role in the world. tion politician and top diplomat,
delivers a devastating critique of
Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor
BY RUTH BEN- GHIAT. Norton, 2020, Orban’s approach to foreign policy. He
384 pp. claims that Orban has sold Hungary out
to authoritarians such as Russian Presi-
The protagonists of this illuminating dent Vladimir Putin, Turkish President
study of authoritarian rulers range from Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Chinese
early-twentieth-century fascists such as President Xi Jinping. The author blasts
Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini, to this turn as “a completely wrong direc-
postcolonial strongmen in Iraq, Libya, tion,” inconsistent with Hungarian
and Uganda, to modern autocrats who identity and long-term interests, and
rode elections into office in Brazil, Hun- advocates a restoration of “the unequivo-
gary, the Philippines, Russia, Turkey, and, cal western orientation of our home-
yes, the United States. It is disturbing land.” He clearly demonstrates how Orban
how comfortably U.S. President Donald and his allies cynically use nationalist
Trump fits into this lineup. From his ideology to promote one-off economic
dark inauguration speech to his wild and political deals that provide some
attempts to overturn the 2020 presiden- short-term benefit to Hungary but will
tial election, much of Trump’s behav- harm it in the long run. He hints that
ior—including his inability to conceive such deals also aid Orban’s personal
of his own failure—makes perfect sense electoral fortunes and line the pockets
according to Ben-Ghiat’s authoritarian of his corrupt associates. A transactional
playbook. Her closing warning that foreign policy of this kind, the book
“strongmen do not vanish with their contends, is condemned to be “incoherent,
Recent Books
confusing, and unsuccessful”—as some of firms with stricter controls on immi-

might see Orban’s recent surrender to gration and a general (if vague) respect for
the Council of the EU on legal disputes. “the ethnic and cultural identities of
Although such insider critiques of one’s white Britons.” How current Conserva-
country’s foreign policy are common- tives would accept and enact this odd mix
place in the United Kingdom and the remains a mystery.
United States, this sophisticated account
is a pathbreaking exception in central A Velvet Empire: French Informal
Europe and worthy of a wide readership. Imperialism in the Nineteenth Century
BY DAVID TODD. Princeton
Remaking One Nation: The Future of University Press, 2021, 368 pp.
Conservatism
BY NICK TIMOTHY. Polity Press, In the nineteenth and early twentieth
2020, 224 pp. century, European imperial powers
preferred to control certain colonial
Timothy, the top political adviser to territories by indirect means: they sought
former British Prime Minister Theresa to co-opt local economic and cultural
May, pleads for a reorientation of the elites rather than establish full territorial
British Conservative Party toward a new control. This strategy of “informal
centrist ideology. The fundamental imperialism” required far fewer resources
problem facing the Tories—much like than direct rule and allowed the imperial-
what their Republican cousins across the ists to focus on economic exploitation
pond are facing—is the unpopularity of rather than governance. The more formal
the neoliberal agenda of lower taxes and “scramble for Africa” in the 1880s only
economic deregulation that the party has intensified when imperial powers began
espoused since the election of Margaret bumping up against one another. British
Thatcher 40 years ago. The consequent informal imperialism is well studied, but
rise in inequality, social exclusion, regional Todd examines its less well-known
blight, environmental degradation, French counterpart, which took shape
substandard schooling, and rocky race especially in North Africa. Whereas
relations has bred cynicism about govern- London enjoyed unmatched competitive-
ment. Tory evangelizing about Brexit ness in cotton textiles, ironwork, trans-
and nationalist identity politics generated port, and financial services, Paris domi-
some blue-collar support in national nated in luxury goods such as silk and
elections in 2019, but what now? Timothy velvet, women’s couture and cosmetics,
seems sure about what the Tories should home furnishings, and fine food and
oppose: he lambasts stereotypical liberal drink. The French also took advantage
“elites” who combine free-market eco- of their strong legal services sector and
nomics with pro-immigrant identity poli- state-supported banks. The luxury
tics. Yet he struggles to find an alterna- trade was profitable enough that, contrary
tive. He proposes a new “communitarian” to what one often reads, neither France
capitalism, combining a traditionally nor the United Kingdom was willing to
left-wing agenda of higher taxes, stricter risk war with the other late in the
regulation, and worker co-management nineteenth century in an attempt to

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extend its possessions—leaving open Scandinavian Noir: In Pursuit of a

the question of why governments Mystery
established formal colonies at all. BY WENDY LESSER. Farrar, Straus
and Giroux, 2020, 288 pp.
Wagnerism: Art and Politics in the Shadow
of Music One of Europe’s oddest cultural exports
BY ALEX ROSS. Farrar, Straus and in recent decades has been “Scandina-
Giroux, 2020, 784 pp. vian noir” crime fiction. Lesser, a
bicoastal American writer and critic
Richard Wagner was Europe’s most who has followed these novels, TV
influential artist of the nineteenth shows, and movies since the 1980s, uses
century. His virulent anti-Semitism and them (and a trip to Scandinavia) as a
Adolf Hitler’s obsessive love for his bridge to understanding contemporary
operas have led many to treat him Denmark, Norway, and Sweden.
simply as a bombastic proto-Nazi—a Readers undeterred by self-consciously
view that Ross, a music critic at The ironic narrators who describe them-
New Yorker, challenges. Wagner, he selves in the third person may find this
observes, was in fact the most left-wing frothy mix of travelogue, literary
and antimilitaristic of the great compos- criticism, and autobiography engaging.
ers. Exiled from Germany for nearly Spoiler alert: in the end, the book’s
two decades after he manned the premise explodes. Fictional Scandina-
revolutionary barricades of 1848 as an vian detectives closely resemble their
anarchist, he produced a string of counterparts anywhere else. Over-
operas that belie his typical association whelmingly male, they resist dull
with right-wing politics, including his middle-class lives, chafe under stifling
four-opera Ring cycle, a socialist moral- bureaucracies, feel alienated in cities
ity play about the triumph of love over full of strangers, express ambivalence
power, and his final work, Parsifal, a about strong women, drink too much,
thinly disguised meditation on Bud- and fail to vanquish the evil rot at the
dhism. Ross focuses especially on the core of society. Their real-world coun-
transformative impact that Wagnerian terparts are nothing like this. Instead,
opera had not just on musicians but also the author encounters enlightened and
on generations of leading painters, fair-minded professionals—many of
poets, theater directors, choreographers, them women—working closely with
philosophers, classicists, psychologists, social workers to employ international
and filmmakers—not to mention best practices in societies where the
feminists, environmentalists, gay rights rate of violent crime is a fraction of that
activists, Zionists, African American in an average American city.
intellectuals, and elected politicians—
most of whom were on the left. Wag-
ner’s art allowed them all to unlock
their own creativity because his operas
let each listener take away something
different and profound.
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Hitler: Downfall, 1939–1945 Western Hemisphere

BY VOLKER ULLRICH.
TRANSLATED BY JEF F ERSON
CHASE. Knopf, 2020, 848 pp.
Richard Feinberg
Few figures have been more thoroughly

debated and dissected than Adolf Barrio America: How Latino Immigrants
Hitler. Today, one can only hope to Saved the American City
retell his tale in clear prose, striking a BY A. K. SANDOVAL-STRAUSZ. Basic
proper balance between argument and Books, 2019, 416 pp.
narrative while citing the most vivid
S
evidence. Ullrich, a German journalist, andoval-Strausz, a historian, offers
does this as well as any. In his account, a timely antidote to the toxic
Hitler was above all a high-stakes rhetoric in the United States that
gambler convinced that those with the characterizes Latino immigrants as
strongest political will were destined to criminals and welfare scroungers. He
prevail—or to die trying. This convic- frames Latino history in the country as
tion was at once a strength and an inher- a narrative of renewal and striving. As
ent flaw. No matter how much Hitler white Americans began to flee U.S.
won, he continued to take greater risks cities in the 1960s, purposeful Mexican
in a quest for world domination. It is immigrants moved into vacant houses
easy to mistake such obsessive evil for and opened small businesses in abandoned
insanity. And it is true that Hitler, like storefronts. New community organiza-
many politicians, was at times overconfi- tions rose up that enriched American
dent, holding dubious views about the civic life. Latino urban culture trans-
world around him and firing those who formed cityscapes with populous plazas
told him differently. But he was also a and dynamic street life. Contrary to
tactical genius who trusted his own gut stereotypes prevalent in the media and
instincts. He knew exactly what he was political discourse, crime rates in immi-
risking and why—and came dangerously grant neighborhoods have been lower
close to succeeding. In the end, he was than in comparable white neighborhoods.
willing to die for his beliefs—staging his Sandoval-Strausz shows how immi-
own demise in the manner he thought grants repeatedly encountered virulent
most likely to serve as a heroic inspira- nativism; nevertheless, Latinos did not
tion to future generations. Fortunately, suffer the degree of discrimination that
that final effort failed utterly. Black Americans had to face, most
notably in access to home mortgages.
The author laments that second-generation
Latinos often abandon their distinct
cultures, choosing, for example, to live
a suburban lifestyle dependent on cars
rather than staying in more walk-
able—and sociable—urban neigh-

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borhoods. The book also includes a The Costs of Inequality in Latin America:
smart overview of national immigration Lessons and Warnings for the Rest of the
legislation and its often unintended World
consequences. BY DIEGO SÁNCHEZ-ANCOCHEA.
I.B. Tauris, 2020, 216 pp.
The Water Defenders: How Ordinary
People Saved a Country From Corporate Sánchez-Ancochea contends that many
Greed of Latin America’s woes spring from its
BY ROBIN BROAD AND JOHN gaping economic inequality. He writes
CAVANAGH. Beacon Press, 2021, 211 pp. for a general audience, drawing primar-
ily on country-by-country case studies
In this gripping page-turner, Broad and rather than bombarding readers with data.
Cavanagh narrate the uplifting story of Some broad trends leap out. Oligarchic
how a global coalition of environmental business owners have few incentives to
activists, labor unions, and religious invest or innovate, so their firms cannot
leaders blocked a Canadian firm from compete in global markets; smaller
opening a gold mine that threatened firms, meanwhile, suffer from a lack of
fragile watersheds in rural El Salvador. access to credit. Wealthy Latin Americans
In 2017, this coalition persuaded El evade taxes and abandon public schools,
Salvador’s legislature to unanimously leaving the poorly educated masses to
pass a bill banning metallic mining— labor in low-productivity jobs. Corrup-
the world’s first such countrywide ban. tion among elites also discredits demo-
El Salvador persuaded the World Bank’s cratic systems. These outcomes fuel
International Center for Settlement of destructive, polarizing forms of popu-
Investment Disputes to rule against the lism that further undermine democratic
mining firm’s bid to open operations in institutions. As the book’s subtitle
the country. Broad and Cavanagh offer a warns, Latin America’s illnesses could
practical David-versus-Goliath playbook spread to other places, where inequalities
for those who would mobilize both of wealth and income are becoming more
domestic and international forces to halt apparent. Although such claims appear
corporate abuses and to place the long- plausible, Sánchez-Ancochea does not
term welfare of communities above adequately explain the causal relationship
short-term financial gain. The authors between inequality and these negative
trace stirring portraits of a diverse cast of political outcomes, and he avoids historical
courageous leaders who fought together examples that might refute his ideo-
to protect their corner of the planet. logical predilections. On the brighter
side, the author cites positive examples
of strong social movements and allied
progressive political parties that have
helped make societies more equal, even
though shortsighted interventions or
resurgent reactionaries have too often
eroded those gains.
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Going Viral: COVID-19 and the Eastern Europe and Former

Accelerated Transformation of Jobs in Latin
America and the Caribbean Soviet Republics
BY GUILLERMO BEYLIS, ROBERTO
FAT TAL JAEF, MICHAEL MORRIS, Maria Lipman
ASHWINI REKHA SEBASTIAN, AND
RISHABH SINHA. World Bank, 2020,
109 pp. 1837: Russia’s Quiet Revolution
BY PAUL W. WERTH . Oxford
This study is a reminder of the abiding University Press, 2021, 240 pp.
difficulty of predicting how technological
I
innovations will affect the future shape n Werth’s view, 1837 was a pivotal
of the workforce. The World Bank year in Russian history, witnessing
economists who wrote this report lament major developments in technology,
the “premature deindustrialization” of art, and intellectual life that then
Latin America, where industrial employ- unfolded over time and marked Russia’s
ment as a share of total jobs declined entry into the modern age. The year
before economies reached maturity. began with a symbolic and literal bang:
Meanwhile, the rapidly expanding service in January, the great poet Aleksandr
sector—a very broad grouping that Pushkin was fatally wounded in a duel.
includes the financial, accounting, retail After his death, Pushkin became a
trade, communications, sports and symbol of Russian national identity,
entertainment, hospitality, and tourism still commonly referred to as “our
industries—is generally less productive everything” in both official and popular
than the manufacturing sector and offers parlance. Elsewhere, Russia’s first
workers lower wages and few benefits. railroad opened. Tsar Nicholas I issued
The authors’ central policy recommenda- a decree allowing the publication of
tions target the region’s Achilles’ heel: provincial newspapers, which played an
the enduring deficits in quality education important role in the subsequent
and training for all age groups. The growth and consolidation of the intel-
authors do point to some grounds for ligentsia across the vast empire. The
optimism, however. Jobs offshored from philosopher Pyotr Chaadayev wrote
advanced economies are expanding (rather Apology of a Madman, which, along with
than hollowing out) positions for middle- his earlier, highly controversial work,
skilled workers in places such as Mexico set the terms of an essential (and
and the countries of Central America. ongoing) debate about whether Russia
And the emergence of digital platforms should strive to emulate Europe or
could empower Latin American work- follow its own path. Werth combines
ers to market their competitive skills and solid historical research with a lively
innovative products worldwide. and occasionally playful style that
makes his book an entertaining read.

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Substate Dictatorship: Networks, Loyalty, The Things of Life: Materiality in Late

and Institutional Change in the Soviet Soviet Russia
Union BY ALEXEY GOLUBEV. Cornell
BY YORAM GORLIZKI AND OLEG University Press, 2020, 240 pp.
KHLEVNIUK. Yale University Press,
2020, 464 pp. Comradely Objects: Design and Material
Culture in Soviet Russia, 1960s–80s
In the second half of Joseph Stalin’s rule, BY YULIA KARPOVA. Manchester
Gorlizki and Khlevniuk write, the Soviet University Press, 2020, 248 pp.
leader became a “surprisingly disciplined
delegator.” He still presided over a regime Two books explore the meaning and
built on fear and repression, but concerns impact of material objects in the Soviet
about efficiency pushed him to accord his Union. Golubev’s intriguing work
regional party leaders greater authority. closely follows a recent academic trend
In their rigorous academic study based on that focuses on how objects facilitate
a vast collection of archival documents historical change. He delves into the
and memoirs, the authors trace the significance of a number of everyday
evolution of those territorial leaders from things and spaces, including scale
the late 1940s to the 1970s. This choice of models, the TV set, bodybuilders’ dumb-
time frame is unusual, as it cuts across bells, and apartment building stairwells
Stalin’s death, the removal of his succes- and basements, tracing their influence
sor Nikita Khrushchev, and the early on Soviet attitudes and social practices.
years of Leonid Brezhnev’s rule. To the The scale models of ships and planes
authors, however, those three decades are that children would build in youth
united by one “outstanding feature”: the centers emphasized the historical conti-
gradual decline in acts of repression nuity of Russian and Soviet technologi-
against members of the communist cal breakthroughs, implicitly undermin-
leadership. Stalin controlled local leaders ing the official narrative of the Bolshevik
through an array of institutional measures Revolution’s radical break from the
and occasional purges. Khrushchev also prerevolutionary era. Iron weights were
exercised tight controls, such as through a key element in shaping what Soviet
political marginalization, but mostly bodybuilders imagined to be the proper
dispensed with overt repression. The Soviet body and character. Although
system opened up further under Brezhnev, bodybuilding was not officially sanc-
who relied more on co-optation than tioned until the late 1980s, bodybuilders
exclusion, began to recruit regional sought to discipline, often by force,
leaders locally, and avoided the “unjusti- alternative, “non-Soviet” collections of
fied turnover of cadres.” The territorial youths, such as hippies or punks. At
party leaders in Stalin’s time were “sub- times, the author drifts away from his
state dictators,” who built their own focus on materiality. In the chapter
fiercely coercive systems of administration. about the TV set, for instance, he dwells
Under Brezhnev, they became “party more on the social context of TV viewing
governors,” who maintained standards of and on specific TV shows than on the TV
decorum in everyday conduct. set itself as a material object.
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Karpova’s research into Soviet objects considered classics of children’s literature.

goes beyond the study of material culture Most of the texts selected for this
and makes a great contribution to late volume are tales of wonder that contain
Soviet intellectual history. After Stalin’s remnants of pagan beliefs, such as nature
death, the political thaw and the partial spirits, miraculous transformations,
opening to the West resurrected debates, returns from the dead, and poor but
abandoned after the 1920s, about ways fearless heroes who must undergo many
to make Soviet commodities a strong trials before winning the hearts of
alternative to capitalist ones. Karpova’s beautiful princesses. These tales don’t
meticulous analysis includes grand always offer easy morals. The seemingly
projects, such as the construction and weak and silly may turn out to be the
furnishing of the Palace of Pioneers in smartest and luckiest. Humility and hard
Moscow, a youth center she describes as work are commonly rewarded, but some-
iconic and emblematic of Khrushchev-era times even laziness is a winning strategy;
Soviet modernism; the 1960s design of Emelya the Fool, for instance, owes his
everyday items, such as alarm clocks, success to lying on the stove all day. The
refrigerators, and kitchenware; and the translator also includes animal tales, in
shift away from practical functionality which the wolf is strong but stupid, the
toward objects charged with symbolic hare is cowardly, and the cunning fox
meaning. Intense artistic and philosophi- easily outsmarts everybody. A third type
cal debates accompanied the evolution of of stories, household tales, often show
Soviet design. Karpova chronicles the wily peasants or soldiers outwitting
transition from the functionalism of the landlords or priests. Such impiety led the
Khrushchev era, which praised basic tsar’s censors to ban many of Afanasyev’s
interiors and useful objects, to the more tales. Unfortunately, those censored tales
florid “neodecorativism” of the late don’t appear in this volume.
1960s, which emphasized a diversity of
tastes and spirituality, and, later still, to
a conceptual move away from objects and Middle East
toward integrated and balanced environ-
ments in which objects and materials Lisa Anderson
were well organized.
Tales From Russian Folklore

BY ALEXANDER AFANASYEV. Street Sounds: Listening to Everyday Life
TRANSLATED BY STEPHEN in Modern Egypt
PIMENOFF. Alma Classics, 2020, BY ZIAD FAHMY. Stanford University
320 pp. Press, 2020, 312 pp.
E
In the mid-nineteenth century, the veryone who has ever been to
ethnographer Afanasyev published around Cairo notices the city’s cacoph-
600 Russian folktales—the world’s ony. This book is the story of that
largest academic collection of such texts. din. Working in the relatively new
In Russia, these tales have long been discipline of sensory history, Fahmy

Recent Books
presents a fascinating account of the “everyday activism,” and he links much

accumulation of sounds in Egypt. In the of that activism’s organization and
late nineteenth century, older notes—the ideology to the modernist urban planning
call to prayer issuing from mosques, the of the last 50 years. Authorities decanted
slap of sandals on pavements, the clack the populations of crowded cities into
of dominoes and backgammon tiles on vast, new suburban housing tracts with
café tables, the yelling of peddlers modern conveniences, long straight
hawking their wares—began to jostle streets, and wide sidewalks (unused, of
with the noises of mechanical and course, in the hot local climate), in the
electrified devices. Readers may be put hope that suburban living would depo-
off by the academic jargon (the author liticize the citizenry. Instead, these
urges the abandonment of an “ocular- suburbs have served to accentuate the
centric” view of the world), but wonder- alienation of generations of young people
fully evocative descriptions and anecdotes who have found it difficult to socialize
leaven the book. Donkey carts clank, and and develop social networks outside their
bicycles whistle; loud jubilation and families. For several decades, Islamist
anguish mark weddings and funerals. The groups, including the Muslim Brother-
advent of electricity extended social hood, worked to fill the void, providing
hours and gave rise to a raucous nightlife afterschool and summer camp programs.
that still spills onto the streets of Cairo. Today, government repression has
Radios and televisions would eventually restricted even these modest efforts at
blare from open windows and sidewalk social mobilization, leaving the pro-
cafés, as railway and tram whistles foundly alienated youth of the kingdom
pierced the air. Finally, the flourish of with few places to turn.
the ubiquitous car horn punctuates the
commotion, perfecting what residents Embodying Geopolitics: Generations of
know as “the Cairo Opera.” Women’s Activism in Egypt, Jordan, and
Lebanon
Graveyard of the Clerics: Everyday BY NICOLA PRAT T. University of
Activism in Saudi Arabia California Press, 2020, 328 pp.
BY PASCAL MENORET. Stanford
University Press, 2020, 264 pp. In an era when they are increasingly in
positions of power around the world,
Typically, the smallest unit on the organi- women leaders seem conspicuously
zational chart of the Muslim Brother- absent in the Middle East. But as Pratt
hood is called a “family,” a close-knit group shows, at least some of the failure to see
of a dozen or so adherents. Menoret powerful women in the region is in the
reveals that in Saudi Arabia, however, eye of the beholder: Western precon-
there is a smaller unit still: the “car,” a ceptions often make women invisible.
group of four or five men who get (A personal example: when I was
together to drive around and debate piety appointed president of the American
and politics. In this fascinating account, University in Cairo, the U.S. press
Menoret shows that this famously announced that I was the first female
despotic country has seen quite a lot of university president in Egypt. In fact, I
Recent Books
was the third.) This volume, based on variety and inventiveness of what the
interviews with over 100 women editors call “experiments in practice”
activists in Egypt, Jordan, and Leba- during and after the uprisings. For
non, traces the involvement of women instance, a lawyer who advised govern-
in political mobilization over the last 70 ments in Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen
years. It is a compelling portrait of offers candid reflections on post-uprising
women working inside, outside, and constitutional reform. The founder of
against systems of power, often at Egypt’s most important independent
considerable cost to their personal news outlet perceptively explores
safety and security. Pratt ends on a journalism in the face of censorship.
pessimistic note, recounting the fail- And a senior adviser to an Egyptian
ures of the uprisings of the so-called presidential candidate discusses the
Arab Spring to produce genuine debilitating consequences of political
change. Since her focus is on activists, stereotypes. The many contributions of
this concern is understandable, but this volume reveal that the fertile
women in government also merit political debate sparked by the uprisings
attention: in 2020, women held a continues today.
quarter of Egypt’s cabinet posts, on par
with the United Kingdom and more The Sultan’s Communists: Moroccan Jews
than in the United States. and the Politics of Belonging
BY ALMA RACHEL HECKMAN.
Citizenship and Its Discontents: The Stanford University Press, 2020, 344 pp.
Struggle for Rights, Pluralism, and
Inclusion in the Middle East Observers often imagine personal
EDITED BY THANASSIS CAMBANIS political identities in the Middle East as
AND MICHAEL WAHID HANNA. ancient, inevitable, and immutable. But
Century Foundation, 2019, 480 pp. the twentieth-century history of Mo-
rocco’s Jewish Communists is a compel-
In this sobering edited volume, Cambanis ling testament to the contingency of
and Hanna showcase a broad spec- such affiliations. Heckman focuses on
trum of academics, analysts, and activ- the careers of five prominent members
ists in serious and provocative reflection of the Moroccan Jewish community
on the disheartening results of the so- from the days of the French protector-
called Arab Spring. Many of the con- ate, in the early twentieth century, to
tributors were participants in the move- the end of the reign of Hassan II, in
ments across the Arab world that called 1999. These men had various allegiances
for “bread, freedom, and social justice”; and ties, including Muslim and Spanish
disappointment in their failure leaps out in-laws; Algerian-born comrades; and
from virtually every page. Nor are the deep attachments to the Jewish commu-
political theorists and historians san- nity, Moroccan nationalism, and inter-
guine about the future; for them, the national communism. And over the
recent movements were merely epi- course of their lives, they dealt with
sodes in long-standing struggles. Less dramatic changes in the political terrain,
predictably bleak are the remarkable negotiating the patronage of the royal

Recent Books
court, the contempt of French colonial public servants demand in exchange for
authorities, Vichy anti-Semitism, routine actions such as granting licenses
Zionist campaigning, and monarchical or providing medical care. The one
despotism after independence in 1956. good kind is what Ang labels “access
Fluid and flexible political affiliations money,” large bribes or favors given to
congealed into more fixed, confined high-level officials in exchange for land,
identities later in the century. At the contracts, or credit. These payoffs push
end of their lives, after most Moroccan the economy forward at a fast pace,
Jews had emigrated to Israel and com- although they also create longer-term
munism had been all but vanquished, problems, including inequality, debt,
these erstwhile agitators and activists and excessive risk-taking. China has
were, as Heckman puts it, “commodi- curtailed the bad kinds of corruption
fied” and ceremoniously trotted out to since the 1990s by routinizing payment
visitors as putative evidence of Moroc- and accounting methods, prosecuting
can enlightenment and tolerance. officials who steal public funds, and
rewarding officials for economic growth
through fringe benefits paid out of
Asia and Pacific slush funds, so they don’t have to steal
to share the benefits of prosperity. But
Andrew J. Nathan access corruption has persisted, sus-
tained by the pressure Beijing puts on
local leaders to promote growth any
way they can.
China’s Gilded Age: The Paradox of
Economic Boom and Vast Corruption The War on the Uyghurs: China’s Internal
BY YUEN YUEN ANG . Cambridge Campaign Against a Muslim Minority
University Press, 2020, 266 pp. BY SEAN R. ROBERTS. Princeton
University Press, 2020, 328 pp.
E
conomists often claim that
corruption hurts an economy, Roberts, a leading expert on the pre-
but it frequently accompanies dominantly Muslim Uighur minority in
fast growth, as it did during the Ameri- China, reports that the frighteningly
can Gilded Age and in China after the effective Chinese campaign to eliminate
death of Mao Zedong. In a book that Uighur culture that started with mass
combines deep insight into how the internments in 2017 has entered a new
Chinese system works with innovative phase, with the transfer of much of the
research, Ang resolves the paradox by rural Uighur population into factory
distinguishing between three kinds of labor both in the western region of
corruption that are bad for growth and Xinjiang and throughout the country.
the one kind that is good. Prominent The government is also sending Uighur
officials and ordinary bureaucrats children to Chinese-language boarding
stealing directly from the public coffers schools, destroying mosques and
are two patterns that are bad for Muslim shrines, banning religious and
growth; so are the payoffs that low-level cultural practices, and imprisoning
Recent Books
members of the Uighur cultural elite. policy, an initiative started in 2000 that
These developments cap a long history encouraged Chinese investment over-
of settler colonialism dating back to the seas. She discerns a common pattern.
mid-eighteenth century. In the 1980s, When a leader faces a national economic
Chinese leaders considered integrating slowdown, he announces a program that
Xinjiang by tolerating its cultural diversity. is both “ambitious and ambiguous” in
But that path was soon abandoned, and order to mobilize enterprises and gov-
after 2001, Beijing used Washington’s ernment entities to invest more boldly.
declaration of a “war on terror” to justify State-owned enterprises, ministries, and
repression in the region. Harsh Chinese local governments scramble to fit what
policies have provoked some reactive they are already doing or want to do
violence from Uighurs and have driven under the new initiative’s umbrella and
what is estimated to be tens of thousands to secure authorizations, incentives, and
of them to join jihadis in Syria. Roberts financing. In this context, she says,
provides fascinating new details on that “almost anybody was allowed to do almost
relatively marginal phenomenon, anything.” The central government’s
revealing that organized Uighur mili- initiatives have led in each case to a burst
tancy is almost entirely illusory. Beijing’s of activity that strengthened subnational
policy of repressive assimilation has now entities while diminishing the ability of
reached such an intense stage that Beijing to control these disparate actors.
Roberts labels it “cultural genocide.” Despite their messiness, the programs
succeeded in their ultimate goal: they
The Belt Road and Beyond: State- kept the Chinese economy humming
Mobilized Globalization in China, along and, in so doing, deepened China’s
1998–2018 integration into the global economy.
BY MIN YE. Cambridge University Lampton and his colleagues study
Press, 2020, 240 pp. the surge of Chinese investment from
the other end, as they examine Chinese
Rivers of Iron: Railroads and Chinese railway projects in seven countries in
Power in Southeast Asia Southeast Asia. Beijing has grandly
BY DAVID M. LAMP TON, SELINA envisioned what will be the Pan-Asia
HO, AND CHENG- CHWEE KUIK. Railway Network, which it plans to have
University of California Press, 2020, run from Kunming, in China, through
336 pp. Laos, Thailand, and Malaysia, to Singa-
pore, with branches reaching into Cambo-
Two books explore different dimensions dia, Myanmar, and Vietnam. This vision
of the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s has not been—and will not be—easy to
vast infrastructure and investment project. implement. Southeast Asian politicians,
Ye compares the BRI, which started in ministries, and interest groups disagree
2013, with two previous programs: the about financing, Chinese dominance, and
Western Development Program, which the distribution of harms and benefits
was initiated in 1999 and directed funds along the rail lines. These struggles often
and expertise from China’s coastal prov- lead to the suspension or renegotiation of
inces to the interior, and the Go Global projects even after construction has

Recent Books
started. Although the effort is frag- nism or had to first pass through a stage of
mented, the authors believe the network bourgeois democracy. A group of self-
will ultimately be built, that it will spur labeled “national socialists” saw Russia’s
revolutionary growth in Southeast Asia, experience as an example of state-led
and that it will tie the region ever more national strengthening that Japan should
closely to China. follow. Some among the government and
military elites saw the new Soviet regime
Revolution Goes East: Imperial Japan and as a potential ally in expelling American
Soviet Communism and European powers from Asia, whereas
BY TATIANA LINKHOEVA. Cornell others perceived Soviet communism as a
University Press, 2020, 300 pp. threat to stability at home and to the
empire abroad. When the Diet adopted
Arbiters of Patriotism: Right-Wing Scholars universal manhood suffrage in 1925, it also
in Imperial Japan passed a law, grounded in loyalty to the
BY JOHN PERSON. University of emperor, that criminalized any leftist
Hawaii Press, 2020, 226 pp. attempt to alter the “national polity.”
Person picks up the story in the 1930s
Pearl Harbor: Japan’s Attack and with a philosophy professor and magazine
America’s Entry Into World War II publisher named Muneki Minoda, who
BY TAKUMA MELBER. attacked Marxist and liberal academics for
TRANSLATED BY NICK SOMERS. not accepting the absolute primacy of the
Polity Press, 2020, 200 pp. emperor and the complete subordination
of the individual to the nation. Person
Three new books delve into how Japanese probes the diverse roots in contemporary
politicians, military officers, and academ- German and Buddhist philosophy of
ics navigated the tumultuous transforma- Minoda’s mystical theory of “Japanism,”
tions of the interwar period: their coun- which made the philosopher “the most
try’s rapid modernization, the revolution feared right-wing polemicist of the 1930s.”
in Russia, the rise of Asian communist Many of the scholars he targeted were
and anticolonial movements, and the physically assaulted by radical nationalists;
efforts of American and European impe- others were fired, resigned, or went silent.
rial powers to contain Japanese influence Minoda’s polemics contributed to the
in Asia. Linkhoeva explores the many ascension of a fanatical nationalism that
ways in which Japanese thinkers of the blocked discussion of any foreign policy
1920s understood the Russian Revolution. option other than war. Because of rising
Labor leaders and leftist social scientists right-wing violence against government
adopted Marxism as a framework to officials deemed insufficiently patriotic,
analyze industrialized Japan’s newly the authorities brought Minoda and other
emerging class system. Anarchists emu- radical nationalists under police surveil-
lated the tactics of Russian radicals to lance and eventually forced his magazine
engage in assassinations and other acts of out of business.
violence. Members of the new Japanese Melber offers a fresh, dramatic account
Communist Party debated whether Japan of events in 1941, when Japan headed
could make a direct transition to commu- into a war with the United States that
Recent Books
most Japanese policymakers knew their from Johannesburg. Harding is an

country was not likely to win. Up to two unintrusive narrator and allows the rich
days before the attack on Pearl Harbor, cast of characters to tell their own versions
the Japanese ambassador to the United of the story. The details of their accounts
States, Kichisaburo Nomura, was trying accumulate inexorably into a searing
to explain to U.S. President Franklin indictment of contemporary South
Roosevelt and Secretary of State Cordell Africa. The casual racism of the farmers
Hull why the U.S. embargo on oil exports and the miserable precariousness of their
to Japan would provoke an unnecessary Black employees are depressingly familiar,
war. The chief of staff of Japan’s navy as are the divisions and resentments
warned Emperor Hirohito that a between Black and white communities
protracted conflict offered no guarantee three decades after the end of apartheid.
of victory. The official in charge of the The only thing that seems to unite South
attack, Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto, had Africans is pessimism about the future.
long argued that Japan would lose a war Harding’s story also delivers a devastat-
with the better-resourced United States. ing verdict on the country’s institutions.
But when the cabinet decided on war, The leading South African political
Yamamoto developed a brilliant attack parties lurked in the background of the
plan and executed it nearly flawlessly, in trial, eager to score points from the
maneuvers that Melber describes in proceedings with populist demagoguery.
engrossing detail. Readers know how the No one involved in the case trusted the
story ends, but Melber’s just-the-facts police or the justice system to do the
narrative re-creates the tension of the right thing. And incompetence perme-
events as they were lived. ated all state agencies: the assaulted
laborers were allowed to die after waiting
for hours without treatment, an indig-
Africa nity compounded by the fact that the
coroner, the lawyers, and the judge
Nicolas van de Walle consistently confused the identities of the
two victims during the trial.
African Europeans: An Untold History

These Are Not Gentle People: Two Dead BY OLIVET TE OTELE. Basic Books,
Men. Forty Suspects. The Trial That Broke 2021, 304 pp.
a Small South African Town
BY ANDREW HARDING. MacLehose In a sweeping history extending from
Press, 2020, 288 pp. the classical world to the twentieth
century, Otele masterfully analyzes the
T
his disturbing narrative relates changing relationship between Africa
the 2016 deaths of two Black and Europe through the lives of indi-
laborers at the hands of several vidual Africans who in some manner
dozen white farmers and the flawed, dealt with Europeans. She shows that
three-year trial that subsequently took notions of race and racial difference were
place in a small town an hour and a half relatively fluid until the seventeenth

Recent Books
century. In the Mediterranean world, in rights and develop the sense of being
particular, religious difference was often wronged by other groups. Local elites
more of a dividing line than skin color, exploit these resentments for their own
and Africans rose to prominent positions particular political ends, often leading to
in Europe. Otele describes the careers of explosive violence. Curiously, her study
men such as Lucius Septimius Severus, a shows that violence is more likely where
second-century Roman emperor from unequal access is in fact not particularly
Libya, and Alessandro de’ Medici, high but where a local patron with
probably the son of an African servant in political ambitions can stoke people’s
the powerful Medici household in dissatisfaction with the electoral process.
Florence, who became the duke of that
Italian city in 1531. Otele argues con- The Delusion of Knowledge Transfer: The
vincingly that the hardening of racist Impact of Foreign Aid Experts on
European views about Africans was the Policymaking in South Africa and Tanzania
inevitable result of the Atlantic slave BY SUSANNE KOCH AND PETER
trade and the subsequent colonial WEINGART. Saint Philip Street Press,
occupation of the continent. But even 2020, 396 pp.
in this more recent hate-filled period,
Otele finds examples of Africans or The use of foreign experts to provide
people of African descent who achieved technical assistance and “knowledge
prominence in Europe against the odds. transfer” to low-income countries has
long been criticized as an ineffective
Political Violence in Kenya: Land, form of foreign aid. Based on careful case
Elections, and Claim-Making studies in South Africa and Tanzania,
BY KATHLEEN KLAUS. Cambridge Koch and Weingart examine the recent
University Press, 2020, 372 pp. record. Their critique is pretty withering
even as they accept that these experts—
Political violence has ebbed and flowed engineers, economists, agronomists, and
throughout Kenya’s postcolonial history, public policy analysts—harbor good
often taking place around elections. And intentions. Foreign experts struggle to
some regions of the country have proved help poorer countries build local capaci-
much more violent than others. Klaus’s ties; worse still, expert advice tends to
superb study presents an overarching advance the agendas of big donors at the
explanation for these outbreaks of expense of domestic control over policy.
bloodshed in the country. Other theo- In a sharp chapter on the education
ries of political violence in Kenya have sector in Tanzania, the authors show that
focused on weak institutions and the the interests of donors often superseded
grievances of citizens but remain vague those of Tanzanians themselves. Disap-
about the actual mechanisms that pointingly, they propose no specific
precipitate carnage. Klaus’s extensive reforms beyond vague suggestions to
fieldwork has allowed her to illuminate devote more funding to capacity build-
the underpinnings of this violence. She ing, albeit without foreign experts. Their
argues that specific ethnic groups have exhaustive analysis offers no evidence
unequal access to land and to property that such aid would be more effective.
Recent Books
What Britain Did to Nigeria: A Short FOR THE RECORD

History of Conquest and Rule The article “The Crisis Opportunity”
BY MAX SIOLLUN. Hurst, 2021, 408 pp. (January/February 2021) misstated the
month in which the number of unem-
In this readable history of British ployed Americans who were temporar-
colonialism in Nigeria, Siollun traces a ily laid off had fallen to nearly three
broad arc from the first links between million. It was October 2020, not
British explorers and various West September.∂
African precolonial states, in the six-
teenth century, to Nigerian indepen-
dence, in 1960, sketching a series of
fascinating episodes and characters along
the way. Several excellent chapters cover
the growth of British economic interests
in the area during the nineteenth
century, notably through the efforts of
the mercantile National African Com-
pany. This increasing involvement in the
region would lead to the establishment
of two separate British protectorates,
one in the south and one in the north, in
1900 and 1903, respectively. Siollun’s
evenhanded assessment of the roughly
60 years of colonial rule that followed is
also absorbing, particularly his descrip-
tion of Nigerian resistance to the
various injustices and humiliations
inflicted by the British. Siollun con-
cludes with what he calls “the mistake of
1914”: his view that the British resolu-
tion to join their northern and southern
protectorates into one poorly integrated
colony constitutes the single most
consequential decision of colonial rule in
Nigeria. Ever since, the north-south
divide has dominated the politics of
independent Nigeria.
Foreign Affairs (ISSN 00157120), March/April 2021, Volume 100, Number 2. Published six times annually (January, March, May, July,
September, November) at 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065. Print subscriptions: U.S., $54.95; Canada, $66.95; other
countries via air, $89.95 per year. Canadian Publication Mail–Mail # 1572121. Periodicals postage paid in New York, NY, and at
additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Foreign Affairs, P.O. Box 324, Congers, NY 10920. From time to
time, we permit certain carefully screened companies to send our subscribers information about products or services that we believe
will be of interest. If you prefer not to receive such information, please contact us at the Congers, NY, address indicated above.

Has Trump Permanently
Altered U.S. Foreign Policy?
Foreign Affairs Brain Trust
We asked dozens of experts whether they agreed or disagreed that U.S. President Donald Trump
irrevocably changed the course of U.S. foreign policy. The results are below.
20
10
0
STRONGLY DISAGREE NEUTRAL AGREE STRONGLY
DISAGREE AGREE
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 9 AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Bisa Williams Shivshankar Menon

Former U.S. Ambassador to Niger Visiting Professor, Ashoka University,
and former Indian National
“Few things are irrevocable. The Biden
administration will be challenged to articulate and Security Adviser
practice a domestic and foreign policy that truly “Trump has changed U.S. foreign policy
reflect the ideals upon which the nation was founded. because the world now sees the United States
Some governments might rebuff our efforts, but differently, and because the world has gotten
America’s appeal has always been among used to a less predictable and engaged
the common people. If we meet the challenge of this America. The United States will therefore
moment, I don’t expect that to change.” have to behave differently abroad.”
See the full responses at ForeignAffairs.com/TrumpFP

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