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    Prediction of Solar Cycle 25: Leif Svalgaard

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    Boris Tabacsplatt
    1) The author presents a method called the Polar Field Precursor Method for predicting future solar cycles based on measurements of the solar polar magnetic fields. 2) Data from the Wilcox Solar Observatory and other sources show that the polar magnetic fields are well-correlated with the strength of future solar cycles. 3) Based on current polar field measurements, the author predicts that Solar Cycle 25 will be intermediate in strength between Solar Cycle 24 and Solar Cycle 20.

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    Prediction of Solar Cycle 25: Leif Svalgaard

    Uploaded by

    Boris Tabacsplatt
    33 views18 pages
    1) The author presents a method called the Polar Field Precursor Method for predicting future solar cycles based on measurements of the solar polar magnetic fields. 2) Data from the Wilcox Solar Observatory and other sources show that the polar magnetic fields are well-correlated with the strength of future solar cycles. 3) Based on current polar field measurements, the author predicts that Solar Cycle 25 will be intermediate in strength between Solar Cycle 24 and Solar Cycle 20.

    Original Description:

    SC-25 forecast of sun spot numbers.

    Original Title

    Prediction-of-SC25

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    1) The author presents a method called the Polar Field Precursor Method for predicting future solar cycles based on measurements of the solar polar magnetic fields. 2) Data from the Wilcox Solar Observatory and other sources show that the polar magnetic fields are well-correlated with the strength of future solar cycles. 3) Based on current polar field measurements, the author predicts that Solar Cycle 25 will be intermediate in strength between Solar Cycle 24 and Solar Cycle 20.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    33 views18 pages

    Prediction of Solar Cycle 25: Leif Svalgaard

    Uploaded by

    Boris Tabacsplatt
    1) The author presents a method called the Polar Field Precursor Method for predicting future solar cycles based on measurements of the solar polar magnetic fields. 2) Data from the Wilcox Solar Observatory and other sources show that the polar magnetic fields are well-correlated with the strength of future solar cycles. 3) Based on current polar field measurements, the author predicts that Solar Cycle 25 will be intermediate in strength between Solar Cycle 24 and Solar Cycle 20.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
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    Download as pdf or txt
    of 18

    WSO

    Prediction of Solar Cycle 25


    Leif Svalgaard
    Stanford University

    SORCE 2018, Lake Arrowhead, CA


    March 23, 2018

    1
    The Origin of the Polar Field Precursor Method

    Was
    165

    2
    The Authors One Cycle Ago
    SPD 2009

    Scherrer Svalgaard Schatten

    Wilcox 3
    Standard (but Misleading) View of Magnetic
    Fields Migrating to the Polar Regions

    Zonal
    averages
    in time
    producing
    broad uni-
    polar
    migrating
    areas 4
    Super-
    Synoptic
    Maps show
    what is really
    going on:
    The flux is
    concentrated
    in narrow
    ‘streaks’ and
    the two
    polarities
    move together

    The maps are


    shown for the
    period of overlap of
    MWO, WSO, MDI,
    and HMI 5
    This is No News, of Course

    ….

    SPD Meeting, 1980, BAAS, 12, 893, B1


    6
    Early MWO Observations
    after Babcock Invented the Magnetograph “by doing everything right”
    Weak Polar Fields
    Strong Polar Fields

    1961

    Explanation
    of the annual
    variation:
    concentration
    at the poles
    7
    WSO Observations since 1976
    Wilcox Solar Obs.
    55°

    Admit (60 Hz)


    alternating
    polarizations

    WSO Magnetogram

    Scattered light
    Dirty Lens
    Filter replaced

    Littrow
    KDP Lens
    Failure Same as MWO’s

    The magnetograph has


    8
    never been upgraded
    Polar Fields from WSO, MDI, and HMI
    from Radial Super-Synoptic Maps

    21 22 23 24
    25

    WSO multiplied by 1.8 to correct for saturation.


    MDI multiplied by 0.6 to put on HMI scale [for polar region]
    9
    Comparing with MWO Polar Fields

    It is amazing how good the agreement is (after scaling).


    This allows us to take the polar fields back to 1974
    10
    Comparison with Magnetograph
    Polar ‘Pixel’ Fields

    Conversion factor: WSO Radial = 4.0 WSO Pixel

    11
    Most Recent WSO ‘Pixel’ Polar Fields

    The data in the yellow rectangle [and reported on the WSO website] were
    faulty [too small by factor 1.55] due to dirty Littrow lens, but have now been
    corrected. The onset of the annual modulation can now be clearly seen.
    12
    Remove the Annual Modulation by
    1-yr Boxcar Averaging

    13
    Remove the Annual Modulation by
    1-yr Boxcar Averaging

    14
    Prediction of Cycle 25

    Should the polar fields increase further, SC25 would be correspondingly higher

    15
    Hindcasting Polar Fields in Time

    SNmax GNmax Bmin

    If we can forecast cycle


    maximum activity from the
    polar fields, we should be
    able to hindcast the polar
    fields from the cycle’s
    maximum activity. If HMF
    B at minimum (proxy for
    polar fields) forecasts
    activity maximum, then
    such maxima hindcast
    HMF B. How do we get B
    16
    for the past?
    From the Geomagnetic Record
    we can reconstruct HMF magnetic
    field B with Confidence

    Gauss Weber

    4.6 nT

    17
    The Prediction (At Last)

    SC25 will be somewhere between SC24 and SC20,


    provided the Polar Field Precursor Relationship holds.
    18

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