Section L

Conditional Probability and Multiplication Rule

Conditional Probability – a probability that is computed with the knowledge of additional information

The conditional probability of an event B, given event A is denoted P(B | A)

P(B | A) is the probability that event B occurs, given that event A occurs or has already occurred.

The probability of B given A is given by

𝐏(𝐀 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁)
𝐏(𝐁 |𝐀) = , where P(A) ≠ 0
𝐏(𝐀)
Number of outcomes in A and B
You can also use: P(B |A) = Number of outcomes in A

This leads to the General Multiplication Rule:

P(A and B) = P(A)P(B|A) or P(A and B) = P(B)P(A|B)

Example:
1) Assume we have an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards.
Deck of Cards:

Black: Clubs

Black: Spades

Red: Hearts

Red: Diamonds

One card is chosen at random, find the following probabilities,

𝟒 𝟏
a) P(King|Picture card) = 𝟏𝟐 b) P(4 of clubs|club) = 𝟏𝟑

𝟏𝟔 𝟎
c) P(2,3,4 or 5|not a picture card) = 𝟒𝟎 d) P(clubs|red card) = 𝟐𝟔 = 𝟎

𝟐
e) P(4 |black card) = 𝟐𝟔
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2) Let A and B be events with P(A) = 0.35, P(B) = 0.25 and P(A and B) = 0.1. Find P(A|B) and P(B|A).

𝟎.𝟏 𝟎.𝟏
𝐏(𝐀|𝐁) = 𝟎.𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟒 𝐏(𝐁|𝐀) = = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟖𝟔
𝟎.𝟑𝟓

3) Let A and B be events with P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.6 and P(B|A) = 0.3. Find P(A and B).

P(A and B) = (0.4)(0.3) = 0.12

4) The following table displays the 100 Senators of the 115 th U.S. Congress on January 3, 2017 viewed by
political affiliation and gender.

Male Female Total

Democrat 30 16 46
Republican 47 5 52
Independent 2 0 2
Total 79 21 100

𝟐𝟏 𝟒𝟔
a) P(Senator is a Female) = 𝟏𝟎𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟏 b) P(Democrat) = 𝟏𝟎𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟔

𝟏𝟔 𝟏𝟔
c) P(Female and Democrat) = 𝟏𝟎𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟔 d) P(Female|Democrat) = = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟓
𝟒𝟔

𝟏𝟔
e) P(Democrat|Female) = = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟔
𝟐𝟏

5) At a local business, it was reported that 65 women and 74 men has college degrees. Of the women, 35
have a Master’s Degree and of the men 52 have a Master’s degree. A person who has a college degree is
chosen at random, find the following probabilities:

𝟔𝟓 𝟖𝟕
a) P(female) = 𝟏𝟑𝟗 = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟕 b) P(Master’s Degree) = 𝟏𝟑𝟗 = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟑

𝟑𝟓 𝟑𝟓
c) P(female and Master’s Degree) = 𝟏𝟑𝟗 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 d) P(Female|Master ′ s Degree) = = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟎
𝟖𝟕

𝟑𝟓
e) P(Master ′ s Degree|Female) = = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟒
𝟔𝟓

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Independence

Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the probability the other event
occurs.

In other words, 𝐏(𝐁 |𝐀) = 𝐏(𝐁), the event A occurring does not affect the probability of event B
occurring.

If two events are not independent, then they are called dependent.

Hence, if 𝐏(𝐀|𝐁) = 𝐏(𝐀), then A and B are independent,

Multiplication Rule for Independent Events

If A and B are independent events, then P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)

Note: You can extend it : P(A and B and C and D and …) = P(A)P(B)P(C)P(D)…

Examples:

6) Let A and B be independent events with P(A) = 0.6 and P(B) = 0.4. Find P(A and B).

P(A and B) = (0.6)(0.4) = 0.24

7) Let A, B, and C be independent events with P(A) = 0.1, P(B) = 0.25 and P(C) = 0.3. Find P(A and B and C).

P(A and B and C) = (0.1)(0.25)(0.3) = 0.0075

8) A fair coin is flipped 5 times. What is the probability that the sequence of tosses is

a) HTHTH? P(HTHTH) = (0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5) = 0.03125

b) HHHHH? P(HHHHH) = (0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5) = 0.03125

9) A fair die is rolled 3 times, what is the probability all 3 rolls are 1’s?

𝟏 𝟏 𝟏 𝟏
P(1,1,1) = 𝟔 ∗ 𝟔 ∗ 𝟔 = 𝟐𝟏𝟔 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟓

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Note: Mutually exclusive and independent are different concepts.

Examples:

10) Let A and B be events with P(A) = 0.7, P(B) = 0.8 and P(A and B) = 0.65.

a) Are A and B independent?

𝟎.𝟔𝟓
𝐏(𝐀|𝐁) = = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟏 and P(A) = 0.7, so 𝐏(𝐀|𝐁) ≠ P(A) therefore A and B are not independent.
𝟎.𝟖

b) Are A and B mutually exclusive?

Since P(A and B) does not equal zero, A and B are not mutually exclusive.

c) P(A or B) = 0.7 + 0.8 – 0.65 = 0.85

11) Let A and B be events with P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.5 and P(A or B) = 0.9.

a) Find P(A and B).

P(A and B) = 0.4 + 0.5 – 0.9 = 0

b) Are A and B mutually exclusive?

Yes, since P(A and B) = 0

c) Are A and B independent?

𝟎
𝐏(𝐀|𝐁) = = 𝟎 and P(A) = 0.4, so 𝐏(𝐀|𝐁) ≠ P(A) therefore A and B are not independent.
𝟎.𝟓

12) Let A and B be events with P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.4 and P(A or B) = 0.76

a) Find P(A and B).

P(A and B) = 0.6 + 0.4 – 0.76 = 0.24

b) Are A and B mutually exclusive?

No, because P(A and B) ≠ 0.

c) Are A and B independent?

𝟎.𝟐𝟒
𝐏(𝐀|𝐁) = = 𝟎. 𝟔 and P(A) = 0.6, so 𝐏(𝐀|𝐁) = P(A) therefore A and B are independent.
𝟎.𝟒

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 13) Jimmy needs to read 7 books for his English class Fahrenheit 451, The Great Gatsby, The Lord of the
Flies, Romeo and Juliet, To Kill a Mockingbird, The Scarlett Letter, and Of Mice and Men. His teacher said
the books will be read in random order. What is the probability Jimmy will read The Great Gatsby first
and Of Mice and Men second.

𝟏 𝟏 𝟏
P(The Great Gatsby, then Of Mice and Men) = 𝟕 ∗ 𝟔 = 𝟒𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟒

14) The U.S. National Center for Education Statistics publishes information about school enrollment in
Digest of Education Statistics. The table below provides information for enrollment in public and private
schools levels.

Type
Level Public Private Total
Elementary 33,903 4,640 38,543
High School 13,537 1,366 14,903
College 11,626 3,263 14,889
Total 59,066 9,269 68,335

𝟗𝟐𝟔𝟗 1366
a) P(Private school) = 𝟔𝟖𝟑𝟑𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟑𝟔 b) P(Private|High School) = 14903 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟗𝟐

c) Are events Private and High School independent? Explain your answer in terms of probabilities.

No, because P(Private) ≠ P(𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞|𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐒𝐜𝐡𝐨𝐨𝐥)

or
𝟏𝟑𝟔𝟔 𝟗𝟐𝟔𝟗 𝟏𝟒𝟗𝟎𝟑
P(Private and High School) = 𝟔𝟖𝟑𝟑𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐 and P(Private)*P(High School) = 𝟔𝟖𝟑𝟑𝟓 ∗ 𝟔𝟖𝟑𝟑𝟓 = 0.03

since 0.02 ≠ 0.03, Private and High School are not independent.

d) Are events Private and High School mutually exclusive? Why or why not?

No, because P(Private and High School) ≠ 0.

15) An ice chest contains 5 cans of coke, 3 cans of root beer, and 4 cans of sprite. Three cans are selected
at random, without replacement. Find the following probabilities:

𝟓 𝟒 𝟑 𝟔𝟎
a) P(All three cans are coke) =𝟏𝟐 ∗ 𝟏𝟏 ∗ 𝟏𝟎 = 𝟏𝟑𝟐𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟒𝟓

𝟒 𝟑 𝟐 𝟐𝟒
b) P(All three cans are sprite) = 𝟏𝟐 ∗ 𝟏𝟏 ∗ 𝟏𝟎 = 𝟏𝟑𝟐𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏𝟖

𝟑 𝟐 𝟓 𝟑𝟎
c) P(The first two cans are root beer and the third is coke) = 𝟏𝟐 ∗ 𝟏𝟏 ∗ 𝟏𝟎 = 𝟏𝟑𝟐𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟑

𝟕 𝟔 𝟓 𝟐𝟏𝟎
d) P(None of the cans are coke) = 𝟏𝟐 ∗ 𝟏𝟏 ∗ 𝟏𝟎 = 𝟏𝟑𝟐𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟓𝟗

𝟒 𝟓 𝟑 𝟔𝟎
e) P(the first is sprite, the second is coke and the third is root beer) = 𝟏𝟐 ∗ 𝟏𝟏 ∗ 𝟏𝟎 = 𝟏𝟑𝟐𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟒𝟓

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