Cereal Consumption Over Time in The Country and Across The States
Cereal Consumption Over Time in The Country and Across The States
Cereal Consumption Over Time in The Country and Across The States
Surplus stock of foodgrains and foodgrains export are two macro indicators to
claim attainment of self-sufficiency/food security. Rising food production and decline
in consumption are two most probable reasons behind such claim. Again, the
Committee on Long Term Grain Policy has attributed the excess stock of foodgrains
to the decline in per capita cereal consumption than to increase in production. With
this background in view the study attempts to assess the validity of such assertion
taking into account the data on consumption pattern and availability of foodgrains as
available in various rounds of NSS Reports and publications of the Government of
India for the country as a whole and across the States, and also to examine the
variation in consumption pattern across states over time.
TABLE 3. CONSUMPTION OF AVERAGE QUANTITY PER PERSON PER 30 DAYS BY STATE AND BY
TYPE OF CEREALS DURING 1993-94 (50TH ROUND) AND 2004 (60TH ROUND)
(kg)
Rice Wheat Jowar All cereals
States 1993-94 2004 1993-94 2004 1993-94 2004 1993-94 2004
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
(A) RURAL
Andhra Pradesh 11.57 11.87 0.19 0.24 0.98 0.44 13.27 12.89
Assam 12.53 12.12 0.64 0.56 0.00 0.00 13.17 12.68
Bihar 7.95 7.61 5.58 6.00 0.01 0.00 14.31 13.96
Gujarat 2.01 2.12 3.98 3.43 0.84 0.53 10.66 9.97
Haryana 0.73 0.93 11.88 10.17 0.00 0.00 12.92 11.55
Himachal Pradesh 3.64 4.28 6.27 6.32 0.00 0.00 13.37 12.21
Jammu and Kashmir 4.71 7.46 7.69 4.03 0.01 0.00 14.84 12.24
Karnataka 5.44 5.48 0.95 0.80 4.01 2.50 13.15 10.87
Kerala 9.29 8.61 0.82 0.86 0.00 0.00 10.11 9.47
Madhya Pradesh 6.03 2.69 5.81 7.44 1.35 0.84 14.20 12.13
Maharashtra 2.97 3.23 2.21 3.51 4.76 3.01 11.39 10.86
Orissa 15.24 13.78 0.38 0.61 0.00 0.00 15.93 14.57
Punjab 0.74 0.73 9.87 9.51 0.00 0.00 10.78 10.42
Rajasthan 0.22 0.19 9.44 7.48 0.18 0.00 14.85 12.62
Tamil Nadu 10.32 9.63 0.34 0.32 0.15 0.02 11.72 10.42
Tripura 11.76 11.68 0.18 0.31 0.00 0.00 11.94 11.99
Uttar Pradesh 4.00 4.34 9.16 8.61 0.11 0.01 13.91 13.25
West Bengal 13.73 13.05 1.18 1.00 0.00 0.00 14.96 14.05
All India 7.00 6.80 4.40 4.25 0.80 0.47 13.40 12.42
(B) URBAN
Andhra Pradesh 10.13 9.15 0.76 0.87 0.32 0.28 11.30 10.32
Assam 10.76 11.50 1.29 1.07 0.00 0.00 12.05 12. 57
Bihar 6.81 6.43 5.93 6.29 0.00 0.00 12.82 12.92
Gujarat 2.07 2.00 5.61 5.26 0.27 0.13 8.96 8.31
Haryana 1.52 0.80 8.90 7.99 0.00 0.00 10.46 8.89
Jammu and Kashmir 4.68 7.96 6.71 6.61 0.00 0.00 11.48 14.57
Karnataka 6.38 5.70 1.56 1.53 1.72 1.46 10.87 9.47
Kerala 8.45 8.64 1.00 1.18 0.00 0.00 9.46 9.83
Madhya Pradesh 3.62 2.05 7.31 7.64 0.33 0.27 11.32 10.02
Maharashtra 3.16 3.01 4.43 4.88 1.50 0.91 9.37 9.04
Orissa 11.26 11.59 2.04 1.93 0.00 0.00 13.36 13.60
Punjab 0.92 0.86 7.99 7.39 0.01 0.00 9.01 8.31
Rajasthan 0.58 0.88 10.36 9.22 0.00 0.00 11.52 10.84
Tamil Nadu 9.13 8.27 0.84 0.72 0.01 0.00 10.05 9.05
Uttar Pradesh 2.61 2.61 8.39 8.02 0.01 0.00 11.08 10.77
West Bengal 8.69 8.36 2.95 2.53 0.00 0.00 11.64 10.89
All India 5.00 4.88 4.70 4.67 0.40 0.27 10.60 10.03
Source: Page 33 of NSS 50th Round and page 69 of NSS 60th Round for rural areas. Page 33 of NSS 50th
Round and page 71 of NSS 60th Round for urban areas.
Note: Tripura and Himachal Pradesh urban data not available.
392 INDIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
Rural Urban
Item Increase in quantity Decrease in quantity Increase in quantity Decrease in quantity
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
All Tripura (insignificant) All remaining 17 Assam, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh,
cereals states Jammu & Kashmir, Gujarat, Haryana,
Kerala, Orissa Karnataka,
(Total 5 states) Madhya Pradesh,
Maharashtra,
Punjab, Rajasthan,
Tamil Nadu,
Uttar Pradesh,
West Bengal
(Total 11 states)
Rice Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Assam, Andhra Pradesh,
Gujarat, Haryana, Kerala, Jammu & Kashmir, Bihar, Gujarat,
Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Kerala, Orissa, Haryana,
Jammu & Kashmir, Orissa, Punjab, Rajasthan Karnataka, Madhya
Karnataka, Rajasthan, (Total 5 states) Pradesh,
Maharashtra, Uttar Tamil Nadu, Tripura, Maharashtra,
Pradesh West Bengal Punjab, Tamil
(Total 8 states) (Total 10 states) Nadu,
Uttar Pradesh,
West Bengal
(Total 11 states)
Wheat Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Assam, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Assam, Gujarat,
Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Kerala, Haryana,
Kerala, Jammu & Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir,
Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Punjab, Maharashtra Karnataka, Orissa,
Maharashtra, Orissa, Rajasthan, (Total 5 states) Punjab, Rajasthan,
Tripura Tamil Nadu, Tripura, Tamil Nadu,
(Total 8 states) West Bengal Uttar Pradesh,
(Total 10 states) West Bengal
(Total 11 states)
Both rice Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Punjab, Kerala Gujarat, Haryana,
and wheat Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Punjab,
together Maharashtra Tamil Nadu, Tamil Nadu,
West Bengal Uttar Pradesh,
West Bengal
Jowar No State All States No State All States
Source: Prepared from Table 3(A) and (B).
The consumption pattern of rice among the States was, of course, also not
uniformly declining. While ten states showed declining consumption pattern over
time, the other eight states, on the other hand, had still to consume more rice. The
States showing increased rice consumption were Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana,
Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh.
The above rice consumption pattern relates to rural areas. In urban areas also, a group
of five States consisting of Assam, Jammu and Kashmir, Kerala, Orissa and
Rajasthan still consumed rice more.
CEREAL CONSUMPTION OVER TIME IN THE COUNTRY AND ACROSS THE STATES 393
The states consuming cereals during 2004 (NSS 60th Round) above and
below the national average quantity for rural and urban areas are displayed in
Table 5A and 5B respectively. Rural people in the States like Tamil Nadu,
Assam, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and Orissa were
consuming cereals more than the national average of 12.42 kg. Their consumption
level varied from 12.43 kg to 14.57 kg. The remaining eleven states had
consumption level lower than the national average (Table 5A). Similarly, urban
people in a couple of States like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Andhra
Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Orissa and Jammu & Kashmir also consumed cereals
more than the national average of 10.03 kg. Their consumption amount varied
from 10.32 kg to 14.57 kg. There were the other eight states whose urban
population consumed less than the national average of 10.03 kg (Table 5B).
TABLE 5A. DISTRIBUTION OF STATES BY VARIATION IN AVERAGE QUANTITY OF CEREALS
CONSUMED PER CAPITA PER 30 DAYS DURING 2004 (NSS 60TH ROUND) (RURAL INDIA)
(kg)
Consumer category by level of consumption
9 kg – 11 kg 11.1 kg – 12.41 kg 12.42 kg 12.43 kg – 14 kg 14.1 kg – 15 kg
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Kerala (9.47), Haryana (11.55), National Rajasthan (12.62), West Bengal (14.05),
Gujarat (9.97), Tripura (11.99), average Assam (12.68), Orissa (14.57)
Tamil Nadu (10.42), Himachal Pradesh (12.21), Andhra Pradesh (12.89), (Total 2 States)
Punjab (10.42), Jammu & Kashmir (12.24), Uttar Pradesh (13.25),
Maharashtra (10.86), Madhya Pradesh (12.13) Bihar (13.96)
Karnataka (10.87) (Total 5 states) (Total 5 States)
(Total 6 states)
Source: Prepared from Table 3(A).
Note: Figures in parentheses are quantity of cereals consumed in kg.
394 INDIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
(kg)
Consumer category by level of consumption
8 kg – 10.2 kg 10.03 kg 10.04 kg – 12.60 kg 12.61 kg – 15.0 kg
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Punjab (8.31), Gujarat (8.31), National average Uttar Pradesh (10.77), Bihar (12.92),
Haryana (8.89), Rajasthan (10.84), Orissa (13.60),
Tamil Nadu (9.05), West Bengal (10.89), Jammu & Kashmir (14.57)
Maharashtra (9.04), Andhra Pradesh (10.32), (Total 3 states)
Karnataka (9.47), Kerala (9.89), Assam (12.57)
Madhya Pradesh (10.02) (Total 5 states)
(Total 8 states)
Source: Prepared from Table 3B.
TABLE 6B. INTER MPCE CLASS VARIATIONS IN AVERAGE QUANTITY CONSUMED OF CEREALS PER CAPITA PER MONTH
DURING 2004 (NSS 60TH ROUND) (ALL INDIA-URBAN)
Cereal consumption as revealed by NSSO data may be compared with the net
availability of cereals in the country as a whole as published in various issues of
Economic Survey, Government of India. These two sets of data are presented in Table
7. Consumption data of various rounds of NSS were converted from kg per capita per
30 days to gms per capita per day in order to make it comparable with the net
availability data of the respective years, which are published in gms per capita per
day. The consumption level during the period 1987-88 (NSS 43rd Round) to 2002
(NSS 58th Round) although registered a gradual decline, it, thereafter, increased both
in the rural and urban areas during NSS 59th and NSS 60th Rounds. Among the
various rounds of NSS, the consumption level of cereals was more than the net
available amount of the corresponding years in three out of eight NSS rounds, viz.,
NSS 43rd, NSS 50th and also NSS 59th Round (by marginal amount). The
consumption level in the remaining five NSS rounds were less than the net available
amount. Therefore, the availability of surplus cereals may likely to develop in the
country. This phenomenon leads us to conclude that the development of surplus food
stock and foodgrains exports thereof cannot be established adequately by the fact of
reduction in consumption level than by the increase in foodgrains production as
asserted by the Committee on Long Term Grain Policy.
TABLE 8. CALORIE SUPPLIED BY CEREAL CONSUMPTION DURING 2004 (NSS 60TH ROUND)
CONCLUSION
It is thus observed from the above discussion that the national average
consumption of cereals, rice and wheat declined over time upto 2002 and again rose
during 2003 and 2004. Again, the change in consumption pattern varied from State to
State. Inter-MPCE classes variation in the consumption of cereals, rice and wheat,
were noted for the data of NSS 60th Round pertaining to the year 2004. Surplus stock
of foodgrains and export of foodgrains there-of could not be explained adequately by
the reduction in consumption level of cereal over time than by the increase in
foodgrains production in the country. Five per cent of the people each in rural and
urban areas may not be able to get the required calories from the amount of cereals
actually consumed by them during 2004. The so-called self-sufficiency in foodgrains
requires to be thoroughly examined in view of the recent move by the Government of
India to revive import of essential commodities including wheat in order to combat
inflationary pressures emerging in the recent years.