SIR SYED UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY

Department of Software Engineering

Spring 2021 Simulation & Modeling (CE-409)
Assignment 1
Semester: VII
Batch: 2018

SYEDA RABIA JAMIL

2018-SE-269

Due Date: 14-Mar-2021 (before 11:00 PM)

Max Points: 10
Instructions:
 Solution must be in form of Softcopy otherwise not accepted.
 Late Submissions will not be acknowledged.
 Plagiarism of your assignment will not be more than 20% otherwise marks will be deducted.

Question 1 :
“Simulation is the appropriate tool”. Do you agree with the above statement? Why or why not? In what
ways do you think you need to improve? The description should be at least 150 words with supporting
example of your own words.

ANSWER 1:

Yes, I agree with the statement “Simulation is the appropriate tool” when:

When simulation is the appropriate tool:

1. Simulation helps researchers to analyze the internal interactions of a complex system or a subsystem
within one.

2. Informational, operational, and environmental changes may all be simulated and their effect on the
model observed.
3. We can find out which variables are relevant by adjusting simulation input and analyzing the outputs.

4. Simulation may be used to evaluate new designs or policies in order to assess their effect.

5. The analytic approach can be checked using simulation.

6. Training simulation models allow for learning without the expense and commitment of on-the-job
training.

7. We can imagine the device at a specific stage of operation using animation.

8. Since many modern systems are so complex, simulation might be the only way to fully understand
them.

According to me in following ways it can be improved:

• By avoiding mistakes made in the programming or rules of the simulation or model.
• We should try to make simulation result easy to interpret because simulation results can be
difficult to interpret. It can be difficult to say whether an observation is the product of system
interrelationships or randomness since most simulation outputs are basically random variables
(they are normally based on random inputs).
• We should try to minimize the time consumption of Simulation modeling and analysis. If you cut
corners on modelling and analysis, you could end up with a simulation model or analysis that isn't
up to the challenge.
• The cost of running several different simulations may be high so we should find ways to minimize
its cost.
Example:
Simulators are used in the medical sector to educate professionals in a number of skills and environments.
Although many of the simulations are based on medical procedures, they also encourage students to learn
communication and teamwork skills. Studies show that using simulations enhances a range of medical
skills, from surgery to procedural skills.
Obstetrics simulations, though incomplete, provide clinicians with a visual perception of an experience
that cannot be completely reproduced outside of the actual environment. Medical simulations enable
clinicians to apply theory to practice while acquiring competencies in a variety of environments, creating
resources that would otherwise be restricted by clinical experience's conventional rigidity.
Conclusion:
Simulation is such an effective analysis tool that it is often viewed as a universal solution in some
industries. With simulation as the hammer, any issue is not a nail! Simulation is often the only method
considered, perhaps in part because of the variety of success stories in recent years (for otherwise
intractable problems), or perhaps in part because of the ready availability of sophisticated simulation
software packages stating that anyone can use them. Not all of these programs are completed
successfully. Simulation is often blamed when, in fact, it was simply misapplied.
 Question 2:
Numerous simulation modelling tools are present on the market, recognizing the variables that explain
the difference between them. Justify your answer with proper example?
ANSWER 2:

Some Examples of Simulation modelling tools and difference between them are as follows:

1. ANYLOGIC:

For business and research, a multi-method simulation modelling tool. System dynamics, agent-based, and
discrete event methodologies are all supported by this multi-method simulation. Project management,
road traffic, aerospace, healthcare, manufacturing, markets and competition, supply chain and logistics,
business processes, retail, and ecosystem dynamics are only a few of the industries where this app can be
used to model events.

Characteristics that set it apart:

 Industry-specific libraries
 Animation and visualization
 Multimethod modeling environment
 Professional agent-based simulation software
 GIS maps integration
 Simulation in the cloud
 Rich experiment framework
 Data interoperability
 Model export and integration
 Model building support
 Extensible and customizable platform

2. MATLAB:

The most prominent simulation program on this list is MATLAB. It was designed primarily to serve as a
forum for numerical computation and programming. However, the program has simulation modelling
capabilities thanks to an optional toolbox. For a wide range of systems, MATLAB may run graphical
simulations in multiple domains.

Features that makes it different:

 Data Analysis
  MATLAB Graphics
 Algorithm Development
 App Building
 MATLAB with Other Languages
 Hardware
 Parallel Computing
 Web and Desktop Deployment
 MATLAB in the Cloud

3. Arena:

A flowchart-based discrete event simulation software. On the SIMAN processor, it's a unique
event simulation and automation program. Arena functions by allowing users to build
experimental models by arranging logic and method modules. Arena was created with Microsoft
technology in mind, such as Excel sheets and Access databases.

Features that makes it different:

 Operational Efficiency

 Hiring Decisions

 Cost Savings

 Increased Reliability

 Increased Throughput

 Finding Bottlenecks

4. Simulink:

Simulink is a dynamical systems modelling, simulation, and analysis programming tool. Simulink is tightly
integrated with MATLAB, and its primary user interface is a graphical block diagramming tool, as you
would expect. Simulink is primarily used in digital signal processing and model-based design automation.

Features that makes it different:

  Agile System Development
 Continuous Integration
 Discrete Event Simulation
 Embedded Code Generation
 HDL Code Generation and Verification
 Model-Based Systems Engineering
 Physical Modeling
 Rapid Prototyping
 System Modeling and Simulation
 Variant System Design
 Verification, Validation, and Test

5. COMSOL Multiphysics:

Finite element analysis, solvers, and simulations for a variety of physics and engineering applications,
especially coupled phenomena or multi-physics, are the focus of this software package. COMSOL
Multiphysics is a simulation program that allows you to perform finite element analysis, multi-physics
simulations, and solver simulations. COMSOL Inc. was the company that produced it. The program
includes an IDE for mechanical, electrical, fluid, and chemical applications, as well as simulation of partial
differential equations (p.d.e) and physics-based interfaces. Furthermore, COMSOL has a JAVA API and can
be linked to MATLAB through LiveLink.

Features that makes it different:

 Simulation software that can be used for a variety of purposes and is focused on sophisticated
numerical methods.
 Fully coupled multi-physics and single-physics modeling capabilities.
 Complete modeling workflow, from geometry to post processing.
 User-friendly tools for building and deploying simulation apps.
 Question 3:
Identify the domain where simulation is not an appropriate tool, justify your answer with proper
practical example?

ANSWER 3:

When simulation is not the appropriate tool:

1. If a problem can be solved with common sense, simulation should not be used.

2. If the problem is analytically solvable.

3. If you can solve the dilemma with common sense.

4. If direct experimentation is more convenient.

5. If the benefits outweigh the costs.

6. If you don't have the requisite money or time.

7. If there is a lack of suitable and correct data.

8. If there isn't enough time or trained resources to test and validate the model.

9. If the system's action is incredibly complicated or unknown.

10. If the expectation is irrational.

Example:
Because modern automated distribution centers are complex, they are frequently simulated prior to
implementation or modification. The majority of them are regulated by WMS software, which selects and
combines orders to be processed. Even in automated facilities, almost all of the actual order processing
(picking) is done manually, and people operate the facility. In most cases, the simulated scenario is a
typical day, and the model results can be very reliable. However, in a real facility, if an unexpected
occurrence happens and orders begin to fall behind schedule, people will alter their daily routine.

In an effort to reach the deadline, actions or events are used to get around machine constraints. This
conduct can be very diverse, making it almost impossible to fully explain and model all possible scenarios.
Model outcomes for these worst-case scenarios almost never fit what happens in the actual system,
making them untrustworthy.

Conclusion:
Simulation projects are costly, but when done correctly, they may yield a significant return on investment.
If the project is a success, the funds will be well invested and will help to advance technology. If the project
fails, it will reflect poorly on simulation and, by extension, on each of us. Don't commit to a simulation
project if you don't need it or if there's a good risk it won't be done properly, won't fulfil the project's
goals and standards, or the results won't be ready in time. Each analyst is responsible for ensuring the
performance of each project and promoting the use and acceptance of simulation modelling.
 Question 4:
Suppose that simulation software A is provide better simulation results in the domain of business
process simulation. Should we ensure that the same simulation software is used in the area of military
application? Briefly describe the simulation domains with the help of the keywords that support the
example of your own words.

ANSWER 4:
There are many simulation software that are used in different domains for example:
Anylogic is a simulation software that is used for both the domains.
In business process simulation:
AnyLogic is a strong business process modelling software that captures and accurately simulates the real-
world business processes. AnyLogic enables business process analysis tools that give you the knowledge
and perspective to execute with confidence. Business process modelling software will help you analyse
the efficiency of your existing processes and improve them, or create completely new approaches.
In your company, using business process modelling software is critical for comprehensive analysis and
solution creation.

Anylogic in business process model can be used for:

 Increasing throughput while cutting costs

 Bottleneck identification and removal
 Operations analysis and efficiency evaluation
 Business process optimization and improvement

In military:
Military and aerospace modelling using AnyLogic tools will reveal hidden savings in areas like maintenance
scheduling.
For example, finding bottlenecks and putting process changes to the test will result in significant
improvements in aeroplane turnaround time.
Disaster response scenarios and evacuation plans may be analysed and developed as part of civil defence
preparation.
To construct a full situational view for testing responses, environmental factors, human actions, and
technology systems may all be taken into account.
Disaster response simulation allows for the testing and implementation of successful contingency plans
that would otherwise be impossible.
Military modelling and simulation aids in the evaluation of emerging technology by speeding up research
while lowering costs and risk. This allows for the introduction of technologies faster and with greater
success. The increased use of autonomous systems, for example, necessitates testing their
interoperability and cooperation. It is possible to model and test these systems in AnyLogic for
applications such as supply transportation, demining, and reconnaissance.
AnyLogic software provides a powerful virtual environment for the study, testing, and optimization of
procedures, structures, and operations in the military.

Anylogic in military can be used for:

 Performance-based logistics
 Supply chain design and optimization
 Operations and evacuation planning, civil defense modeling
 Maintenance scheduling, including the aerospace industry

Simulation domains:
• Military Application:
Advantages of military simulation:
 Cost-effective and time-saving:
Simulation-based training eliminates the costs of driving equipment, firing arms, and maintaining a
training environment.
 Safe environment to learn in:
Trainees can also learn how to handle dangerous vehicles and weapons in a controlled and secure
environment using simulation-based learning.
 Highly immersive experience:
Simulation environments created using the highest quality graphics and rendering. They also provide
highly realistic environmental effects for a fully immersive training experience. To ensure trainees gain
experience, everything from water effects to weather conditions, shadows, and lighting is used.
 Experience a variety of environments and scenarios:
Vehicles, tanks, and characters will interact with weather conditions and terrain in a way that is true-
to-life. This equips trainees with some knowledge of what it's like to work in a variety of conditions.
 Progress can be measured objectively:
When training with simulation tools, objective measurements of each individual's progress over time
are possible.
For example, in live simulations the military participates in “war games” to simulate real battle situations
with real equipment without actually risking lives.

• Business Process Simulation:

Simulations can help you evaluate business processes and identify areas for improvement. A business
process simulation is a tool that can be used to evaluate and analyse both existing and unimplemented
business processes.
Advantages of business process simulation:
 Resource conservation:

It makes more sense to model a business process and run it as a simulation rather than designing and
implementing one. Early detection and correction of problems during a simulation will save you time
and money.
 Visual output:
Business process models have a clear visual representation of processes and model designs. Running
simulations based on your BPMN models allows you to quickly see the connections between different
tasks.

 Testing process behavior:

Testing the actions of a business process before it is installed gives you a clear idea of how it will
perform in the real world.

 Problem solving:

Analyzing actions allows you to see what works and what doesn't. It is simpler and less expensive to
solve virtual problems than it is to solve real-world issues.

 Education and training:

Simulations are a good, cost-effective way to give new workers hands-on experience with processes
and systems without interfering with true, real-time workflows.

 Accurate results:

The outcomes of a simulation are generally reliable, and they will help you anticipate what to expect
as you move from the virtual to the real world.
Question 5:
A bank has one drive-in teller. Simulate the operation of the drive-in teller for 50 new customers. Construct a
simulation table and perform a simulation for 50 new customers and calculate the following parameters:
 Average waiting time.
 Probability of idle server.
 Average service time.
 Expected service time.
Use your NIC (National Identity Card) Number as “Random Digit for Arrivals” and “Random Digit for Service-time
Distribution”. Let student have NIC No. is 43210-0123456-3. (Total 13 digit) Random Digit for Arrival Each digit of
NIC No. is Multiple by 10 you get the “Random Digit for Arrival” except 0. If your NIC No. contains ZERO, then
ZERO is replaced by 100. If you need more digits, repeat your NIC No. until your requirement is not fulfilled. e.g.

ANSWER 5:

NIC No. Digits 4 2 2 0 1 4 0 3 6 5 3 3 6

Random digits for arrival 40 20 20 100 10 40 100 30 60 50 30 30 60

NIC No. Digits 4 2 2 0 1 4 0 3 6 5 3 3 6

Random digits for service time 40 20 20 100 10 40 100 30 60 50 30 30 60

Answer:

NIC = 42201-4036533-6

Time between Arrivals Probability Cumulative Range

(Minutes) Probability
0 0.09 0.09 1-9
1 0.17 0.26 10-26
2 0.27 0.53 27-53
3 0.20 0.73 54-73
4 0.15 0.88 74-88
5 0.12 1.00 89-100

Service Time Probability Cumulative Range

(Minutes) Probability
1 0.20 0.20 1-20
2 0.40 0.60 21-60
3 0.28 0.88 61-88
4 0.12 1.00 89-100

S. No NIC No. Random Digit for S. No NIC No. Random Digit forService
Digits Arrival Digits Time

1. 4 40 1. 4 40
2. 2 20 2. 2 20
3. 2 20 3. 2 20
4. 0 100 4. 0 100
5. 1 10 5. 1 10
6. 4 40 6. 4 40
7. 0 100 7. 0 100
8. 3 30 8. 3 30
9. 6 60 9. 6 60
10. 5 50 10. 5 50
11. 3 30 11. 3 30
12. 3 30 12. 3 30
13. 6 60 13. 6 60
14. 4 40 14. 4 40
15. 2 20 15. 2 20
16. 2 20 16. 2 20
17. 0 100 17. 0 100
18. 1 10 18. 1 10
19. 4 40 19. 4 40
20. 0 100 20. 0 100
21. 3 30 21. 3 30
22. 6 60 22. 6 60
23. 5 50 23. 5 50
24. 3 30 24. 3 30
 25. 3 30 25. 3 30
26. 6 60 26. 6 60
27. 4 40 27. 4 40
28. 2 20 28. 2 20
29. 2 20 29. 2 20
30. 0 100 30. 0 100
31. 1 10 31. 1 10
32. 4 40 32. 4 40
33. 0 100 33. 0 100
34. 3 30 34. 3 30
35. 6 60 35. 6 60
36. 5 50 36. 5 50
37. 3 30 37. 3 30
38. 3 30 38. 3 30
39. 6 60 39. 6 60
40. 4 40 40. 4 40
41. 2 20 41. 2 20
42. 2 20 42. 2 20
43. 0 100 43. 0 100
44. 1 10 44. 1 10
45. 4 40 45. 4 40
46. 0 100 46. 0 100
47. 3 30 47. 3 30
48. 6 60 48. 6 60
49. 5 50 49. 5 50
50. 3 30 50. 3 30

S. No Random Digit for Time Arrival S. No Random Digit for Service time
Arrival b/w time Service Time
Arrival
1. -- 0 0 1. 40 2
2. 40 2 2 2. 20 1
3. 20 1 3 3. 20 1
4. 20 1 4 4. 100 4
5. 100 5 9 5. 10 1
6. 10 1 10 6. 40 2
7. 40 2 12 7. 100 4
8. 100 5 17 8. 30 2
9. 30 2 19 9. 60 2
10. 60 3 22 10. 50 2
11. 50 3 25 11. 30 2
12. 30 2 27 12. 30 2
13. 30 2 29 13. 60 2
14. 60 3 32 14. 40 2
15. 40 2 34 15. 20 1
16. 20 1 35 16. 20 1
17. 20 1 36 17. 100 4
18. 100 5 41 18. 10 1
 19. 10 1 42 19. 40 2
20. 40 2 44 20. 100 4
21. 100 5 49 21. 30 2
22. 30 2 51 22. 60 2
23. 60 3 54 23. 50 2
24. 50 3 57 24. 30 2
25. 30 2 59 25. 30 2
26. 30 2 61 26. 60 2
27. 60 3 64 27. 40 2
28. 40 2 66 28. 20 1
29. 20 1 67 29. 20 1
30. 20 1 68 30. 100 4
31. 100 5 73 31. 10 1
32. 10 1 74 32. 40 2
33. 40 2 76 33. 100 4
34. 100 5 81 34. 30 2
35. 30 2 83 35. 60 2
36. 60 3 86 36. 50 2
37. 50 3 89 37. 30 2
38. 30 2 91 38. 30 2
39. 30 2 93 39. 60 2
40. 60 3 96 40. 40 2
41. 40 2 98 41. 20 1
42. 20 1 99 42. 20 1
43. 20 1 100 43. 100 4
44. 100 5 105 44. 10 1
45. 10 1 106 45. 40 2
46. 40 2 108 46. 100 4
47. 100 5 113 47. 30 2
48. 30 2 115 48. 60 2
49. 60 3 118 49. 50 2
50. 50 3 121 50. 30 2

Cus. Time Arrival Service Time Time Waiting Time Time Idle time of
No. b/w time [minutes] service time in service Customer server
Arrival [clock] start queue end spend in [minutes]
[clock] [minutes] [clock] server
[minutes]
1. 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 0
2. 2 2 1 3 1 4 2 0
3. 1 3 1 5 2 6 3 0
4. 1 4 4 7 3 11 7 0
5. 5 9 1 12 3 13 4 0
6. 1 10 2 14 4 16 6 0
7. 2 12 4 17 5 21 9 0
8. 5 17 2 22 5 24 7 0
9. 2 19 2 25 6 27 8 0
10. 3 22 2 28 6 30 8 0
11. 3 25 2 31 6 33 8 0
12. 2 27 2 34 7 36 9 0
 13. 2 29 2 37 8 39 10 0
14. 3 32 2 40 8 42 10 0
15. 2 34 1 43 9 44 10 0
16. 1 35 1 45 10 46 11 0
17. 1 36 4 47 11 51 15 0
18. 5 41 1 52 11 53 12 0
19. 1 42 2 54 12 56 14 0
20. 2 44 4 57 13 61 17 0
21. 5 49 2 62 13 64 15 0
22. 2 51 2 65 14 67 16 0
23. 3 54 2 68 14 70 16 0
24. 3 57 2 71 14 73 16 0
25. 2 59 2 74 15 76 17 0
26. 2 61 2 77 16 79 18 0
27. 3 64 2 80 16 82 18 0
28. 2 66 1 83 17 84 18 0
29. 1 67 1 85 18 86 19 0
30. 1 68 4 87 19 91 23 0
31. 5 73 1 92 19 93 20 0
32. 1 74 2 94 20 96 22 0
33. 2 76 4 97 21 101 25 0
34. 5 81 2 102 21 104 23 0
35. 2 83 2 105 22 107 24 0
36. 3 86 2 108 22 110 24 0
37. 3 89 2 111 22 113 24 0
38. 2 91 2 114 23 116 25 0
39. 2 93 2 117 24 119 26 0
40. 3 96 2 120 24 122 26 0
41. 2 98 1 123 25 124 26 0
42. 1 99 1 125 26 126 27 0
43. 1 100 4 127 27 131 31 0
44. 5 105 1 132 27 133 28 0
45. 1 106 2 134 28 136 30 0
46. 2 108 4 137 29 141 33 0
47. 5 113 2 142 29 144 31 0
48. 2 115 2 145 30 147 32 0
49. 3 118 2 148 30 150 32 0
50. 3 121 2 151 30 153 32 0
Total = 104 Total = 785 Total = 0

Calculation:

∑ 𝑤𝑎𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑢𝑒 785

Average waiting time = = = 15.7 minutes
Number of customers 50

∑ 𝑖𝑑𝑙𝑒 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑟 0

Probability of idle server = = 153 = 0
simulation run time

∑ 𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 104

Average service time = Number of customers = = 2.08 minutes
50

Expected Service time = 1(0.20) + 2(0.40) + 3(0.28) + 4(0.12) = 8.72 minutes