Resources Policy 38 (2013) 36–43

Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect

Resources Policy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/resourpol

Rare earth elements as critical raw materials: Focus on international markets

and future strategies
Stefania Massari n, Marcello Ruberti
University of Salento, Faculty of Economics, SAGA Department, Ecotekne, via per Monteroni 75, 73100 Lecce, Italy

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Supply of some critical raw materials by European industry is becoming more and more difficult. After
Received 4 February 2012 the case of natural textile fibres, in particular cotton, and timber, over the last few years the problem of
Received in revised form rare earths (REs) availability has also risen. The 97% of the global supply of rare earth metals (REMs) is
2 July 2012
produced by China, that has recently done copious cuts of its exports, apparently in order to protect its
Accepted 6 July 2012
Available online 9 August 2012
environment. This fact has greatly increased the REs prices, causing tension and uncertainty among the
world hi-tech markets. Many of these materials, in fact, have very few effective substitutes and low
JEL classification: recycling rates too. In addition, their natural reserves of rare earths are concentrated in a small number
Q31 of countries (China, Brazil, US, Russia, Democratic Republic of Congo). REMs are a group of 17 elements
Q32
particularly used in many new electronic and advanced components: such as fuel cells, mobile phones,
Q37
displays, hi-capacity batteries, permanent magnets for wind power generation, green energy devices,
etc. Many analysts foresee much more requests in the next decades.
Keywords:
Rare earths & 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
World reserves
Hi-tech applications
Commercial conflicts

Introduction except the limited capacity of Estonia (Chen, 2011). In fact,

although their industrial demand is relatively small (in terms of
In June 2010, the European Commission published a list of 14 tonnes), they are essential for many expanding high-technology
raw materials (metals or group of metals) that are critical for applications. Moreover, while global consumption of rare earth
many important emerging technologies of its regional industries, elements (REEs) has registered a steady and significant increase,
highlighting their vulnerability, due to possible political tensions their supply has drastically diminished.
or shortages. In fact, the same Commission labels a raw material To face this crucial situation, the Commission, already in 2008,
as ‘‘critical’’ when – after having carefully evaluated the political launched the ‘‘European Raw Materials Initiative’’ (Commission of
and economic situation of the producing countries, the level of the EC, 2008) suggesting an integrated strategy based on the
supply concentration, the potential for substitution and the following three principles: (1) enforcing deeper links and co-
recycling rate – its impacts on the economy, due to a possible operation contracts with producer countries, particularly in
supply contraction, are much higher than other raw materials Africa, by improving foreign investment agreements; (2) encoura-
(European Commission, 2010). ging and promoting internal mining potential; (3) developing
In this list, there are 12 materials (antimony, beryllium, cobalt, more efficient recycling policies (European Commission, 2010).
fluorspar, gallium, germanium, graphite, indium, magnesium, Monitoring and proactive measures are thus necessary, particu-
niobium, tantalum and tungsten) and two groups of other larly, for those strategic materials, like REs, to which EU has high
elements: PGMs (platinum group metals, which include iridium, import dependency and increasingly difficult to access (Tiess,
osmium, palladium, platinum, rhodium and ruthenium) and rare 2010).
earths (REs) group (European Commission, 2011). Even the US Department of Energy (DOE) wrote, in the same
Lately, the most critical situation seems to be that of REs – for year, a technical document (US DoE, 2010) in order to determine a
the EU high import dependency rate, low substitution and low long-term strategy for those materials and others that, like the
recycling rate – did not produced within the European members, REs, may be considered critical for the national economy, because
they have high and imminent risk of supply interruption.
Since a few years ago, in fact, many producing and emerging
n
Corresponding author. Tel.: þ39 0 832 298950; fax: þ39 0 832 298748. countries, rich in REs resources, have applied protectionist poli-
E-mail address: stefania.massari@unisalento.it (S. Massari). cies, reducing the exports to EU, in order to protect their national

0301-4207/$ - see front matter & 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2012.07.001
 S. Massari, M. Ruberti / Resources Policy 38 (2013) 36–43 37

downstream industries. China, for example, that dominates the general formula LaPO3; where La is a lanthanide), bastnaesite (a
world market of REs minerals (97%, with about 30% of the family of three carbonate-fluoride minerals, i.e. LaCO3F,), xenotime
reserves), has steadily increased export taxes on REEs, drastically (an anhydrous phosphate mineral, whose major component is
restricting their export quotas in recent years: from about YPO4 and other HREE) and loparite (an oxide mineral of the
50,150 t exported in 2009 to a little more than 30,250 t in 2010, perovskite class). The last one, as it contains considerable radio-
with a decrease of about 40% (Kingsnorth, 2010a; Lynas Corp., active thorium, is no longer an attractive RE source. Most of these
2011). Already in 1992, the Chinese President Deng Xiaoping REEs are contained in only a few minerals (bastnaesite, monazite
proudly said, that ‘‘If the Middle East has oil, China has the rare and xenotime) and flotation methods are used to produce REOs
earths’’ (Keller, 2011). from these ores; other REOs (50%) are produced from heavy
It is known that, according to the IUPAC definition, ‘‘rare earth mineral sands and gangue by physical concentration methods or
metals’’ (REMs, or ‘‘rare earth elements’’, REEs) are a family of 17 using a cationic collector, such as fatty acids or alkyl sulphate and
elements in the periodic table. They start with lanthanum (atomic phosphate esters (Bulatovic, 2010).
no. 57) and end with lutetium (atomic no. 71), called all together Typically, in most of these minerals, the percentage composi-
‘‘lanthanides group’’. The scandium (atomic no. 21) and yttrium tion of the individual RE elements follows the Oddo–Harkins law:
(atomic no. 39), having similar physical and chemical properties that is, an odd–even relationship according to which the elements
(lanthanide contraction), are also included in this family. In fact, of the periodic table with an even atomic number are usually
they often occur together in nature. Based on their location in the more abundant than their odd-numbered neighbours (Kilbourn,
periodic table and their atomic weights, it is possible to classify 1993). For this reason, the concentrations of the heavier REEs are
these elements into light REs or LREEs (lanthanum, cerium, smaller than those of the lighter REEs (Uchida et al., 2006).
praseodymium, neodymium, promethium and samarium, with REs minerals are quite plentiful in the earth crust and it seems
atomic no. 57–62) and heavy REs or HREEs (europium, gadolinium, there are reserves in thirty-four countries: six countries in Europe
terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, lutetium (among all, Russia Estonia and Greenland), fourteen in Asia, ten in
atomic no. 63–71) (IUPAC, 2005). All of them can be found in Africa, and then USA, Canada, Brazil and Australia (Chen, 2011).
nature, in form of compounds, except promethium, which is According to the US Geological Survey (US Department of the
obtained by synthetic methods. Interior, 2011), in 2010, the whole world REOs reserves were about
The aim of this note is to illustrate the current situation of 110 million tonnes: China ranks the first position, with more than
international markets, the availability of these strategic resources, 60% (55 million tons); CIS (Commonwealth of Independence
the critical points of their supply, the possibility for substitution States—former Soviet Union) is the second, with about 17% (19
and recycling, the environmental problems related to their million tons); United States are the third, with a quota of about 12%
extraction and the possible solutions to enhance their future (13 million tons); then follow India (3.1 million tons), Australia (1.6
supply security for the European countries. million tons), Brazil (0.48 million tons), Malaysia (0.3 million tons)
and other countries (22 million tons, 20% of total).
Until the 1980s, the mine of Mountain Pass (Southern California,
Reserves and production USA) was the largest site of REs in the world. It was opened by
Molycorp in the early 1950s which invested millions of dollars in
Despite of their name, REs are not very rare indeed, especially researching potential uses for REEs. It was productive until 2002,
the LREEs, extracted in a more common and easier way than the when problems of groundwater pollution and the importation of
‘‘heavies’’. In fact, the term ‘‘rare earths’’ was misleadingly low cost minerals from China greatly lowered the production,
suggested – after chemist Carl Axel Arrhenius (1757–1824), limited to a few oxides that must be processed in Asia to be
student of the Swedish chemist Berzelius, had discovered them converted into REMs (Fifarek et al., 2008). Other interesting sites
in 1787 in the dumps of the Ytterby (Sweden) quarries – by in the United States are Lemhi Pass and Diamond Creek (Idaho)
Johann Gadolin in 1794: ‘‘rare’’ because, when the first REEs were and the Bokan Mountain (Alaska) (Long et al., 2010).
discovered, he thought that they were present only in small A group of researchers of the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth
amounts in the Earth’s crust, and ‘‘earths’’ because, as oxides, Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) have identified huge deposits
REs have an earthy appearance (Long et al., 2010). of REEs in the sedimentary mud of the seabed of the Pacific
For example, cerium (6.6  10  3% by weight in the Earth’s Ocean: according to some valutations, these reserves are about
crust; 251 element for what concerns plenty) has a similar 100 billion tons: thousand times bigger than those on the dry
abundance to that of Cu and it is about four times more abundant land. The problem is that these resources are very deep (from
than Pb. Even the two least abundant REEs (Tm, Lu) are nearly 200 3500 to 6000 m) and their extraction currently meets serious
times more common (  0.5 ppm) than gold (US Geological technical and, above all, economic difficulties (Kato et al., 2011).
Survey, 2002; Naumov, 2008). The real problem, then, is not their The largest producer is China: in 2010, 130,000 t of REOs on a
absolute concentration (10–500 ppm by weight) but the relative world estimated production of 134,000 ones, equal to 97% of
one: in fact, it is very difficult to find economically exploitable them, came from there (US Department of the Interior, 2011).
deposits and, as we will see, simple methods of extraction and Today, many of these reserves (principally based on bastnaesite’s
separation due to their very similar properties. The only elements, Northern deposits) are located in the regions of Inner Mongolia
that are really scarce (upper crust abundance r1 ppm) and even (Bayan Obo mine), Shangdong, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Hunan,
difficult to find, are europium, thulium and lutetium (Taylor and Guangxi, Fujian, Sichuan (Hurst, 2010). Most of these mines are
Mclennan, 1985). unlicensed and unregulated, taking advantage of low wages and
They are globally traded on the basis of their content of oxides causing serious environmental problems (Pui-Kwan, 2011).
expressed in terms of a specific RE oxide (REO) or as total RE Other producing countries are India (in 2010, 2700 t of REOs
oxides (TREOs). For some applications, the requested percentage from illmenite and monazite minerals), Brazil (550 t from illmenite)
of purity of single element in these oxides can get to 99.99% or and Malaysia (350 t from cassiterite). The main consumer countries
even 99.999% (‘‘five nines’’ products in a particular crystallo- are USA, Europe, Japan, Corea and China (US Department of the
graphic structure) (King, 2011). Interior, 2011).
The principal commercial sources of REOs are monazite At the moment there is a negative difference between the
(a phosphate mineral of Ce and other LREE, like Nd, Y and Th; actual production of REs and their estimated demand: in 2010,
38 S. Massari, M. Ruberti / Resources Policy 38 (2013) 36–43

with an estimated average demand of 134,000 t, there was a real product; FOB China export basis; prices as a mid-point of high and
production of around 133,600 t. This difference was covered by low price), based in a warehouse Rotterdam duty unpaid. These
previously mined materials and industrial stockpiles (Humphries, quotations are reported by Metal-Pages (Metalpages Inc., 2011–
2011). 2012), an international accredited financial analyst company.
According to the most accredited analysts, the worldwide By examining the historical trends of REOs prices, since the
demand of REOs is estimated to grow each year between 10% early years to the present, we can identify two distinct phases. In
and 20% (Reuters, 2009). Many analysts expect a gradual increase the period 1991–2007, the production of these raw materials
of worldwide demand of REOs up to 225,000 t by 2015. On the changed from about 50,000 t/year to almost 130,000 t/year, while
other hand, the experts of Goldman Sachs predict their surplus the average prices fell, by less than 13 US$/t to a little more than
already by 2013 (Fickling, 2011). 5 US$/t. From 2007 onwards, the produced quantities started to
After the mining extraction (ore from the mineral deposit), the be 134,000 t/year (2010) while the prices of all REOs have been
other processing stages are separation (ore into REO, by cracking soaring. These developments, both of produced quantities and
and leaching steps), refining (REO into metals, by separating, first prices, are mostly due to the role of China: at first, the Country
of all, the two groups of elements, lights from the heavies, and used to have an exclusive role of producer, while in the last
then the individual elements from each other), forming (REM into period, it has also become an important consumer itself and,
alloys, compounds or other marketable products, like oxides, thanks to its hegemony, controls market prices policies and, as we
acetates, carbonates) and manufacturing (RE alloys into commer- know, enacts export control quotas (Papp et al., 2008).
cial components) (Paul and Campbell, 2011). The most significant increases took place during the last two
The refining process, in particular, is the most important of years: cerium cost was 4.5 US$/kg in 2009, 61 US$/kg in 2010 and
them and takes place through a liquid–liquid extraction (or 158 US$/kg in July 2011 (the month in which there were the
solvent extraction), based on a different relative solubility of highest quotations); lanthanum cost varied from 6.25 US$/kg
REs in water and in organic solvents, transferring the RE ions (2009) to 60 US$/kg (2010) up to 151.5 US$/kg (July 2011);
from the aqueous phase to the organic phase, in a group of mixer praseodymium cost varied from 14 US$/kg to 86.5 US$/kg up to
settlers, and using different organic solvents, depending on the 248.5 US$/kg; neodymium cost went from 14 US$/kg to 87 US$/kg
type of REs salt present in the first status phase (Sugahara et al., up to 318 US$/kg; dysprosium cost varied from 100 US$/kg to
2010). 295 US$/kg up to 2510 US$/kg; europium cost varied from
450 US$/kg to 630 US$/kg up to 5870 US$/kg; terbium cost varied
from 350 US$/kg to 605 US$/kg up to 4410 US$/kg on July 2011
Supply and prices (Metalpages Inc., 2011–2012).
More recently, nearly one year after (June 7, 2012), always
The largest companies that trade these materials are less than according to the Metal-Pages quotations, there was a sudden and
twenty: one in the US (Molycorp), five in Canada (Avalon Rare substantial fall in prices: from the highest levels of July 2011, the
Metals, Great Western Minerals, Neo Material Technologies, Rare price of cerium has lost 73% (now 42.5 US$/kg); lanthanum, 76%
Element Resources, VMS Ventures), three in Australia (Alkane (now 36 US$/kg); praseodymium, 30% (now 175 US$/kg); neody-
Resources, Arafura Resources, Lynas Corporation), four in China mium, 52% (now 154 US$/kg); dysprosium, 40% (now 1500
(Baotou Steel Rare Earth Hi-Tech, China Rare Earth Holdings, US$/kg); europium, 32% (now 4010 US$/kg); terbium, 23% (now
Jiangxi Copper, Aluminium Corporation of China), one in Japan 3400 US$/kg) (Metalpages Inc., 2011–2012). This changes of trend
(Showa Denko), two in India (Indian Rare Earth, Kerala Minerals & are due, very likely, to different reasons: the actual, persistent
Metals) and three in Russia (JSC Sevredmet, Solikamsk Magne- heavy economic crisis of the industrialised countries; the con-
sium Works, Irtysh Rare Earths) (Seeking Alpha, 2011). traction of hi-tech consumption; the placing on the market of
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth Hi-Tech Co., Ltd. is the large stocks of REOs by some Chinese private operators fearful of
largest world producer of RE metals. The Company, principally possible inspections and confiscations by the Chinese Government
engaged in the production and sale of refined REs mine products, (Lian and Stanway, 2011).
in 2010, produced approximately 62,400 t of REOs products Due to the fact that the market of REEs is restricted to a few
(Reuters, 2011). operators who have not got futures—contracts by which it would
The separation and processing of REs products from concen- be possible to predict the potential prices, it is not possible to
trated materials are carried out by very few companies, on a know exactly, and transparently, their prices, as it happens for
worldwide level, poorly integrated with the upstream mining other raw materials, commonly traded on stock exchanges like the
operations. Some of them are: AMR Technologies Inc. (Canada), London Metals Exchange (LME) (European Commission, 2011).
the most important RE downstream joint-operator in China; Inner In addition, until a few months ago, REMs had not even got a
Mongolia HEFA Rare Earth Science & Technology Development, financial fund listed on the stock exchanges. The only way to
Gansu Rare Earth Corp., Xinwei Group, Magnequench and Yue follow the evolution and trends of their official market prices was
Long Non-ferrous Metal (China); Rhodia Electronics and Catalysts deriving them from the quotations of the related mining compa-
(France), that collaborates with similar companies in China, US nies. The first US exchange-traded fund (ETF) investing in compa-
and Japan; Grace Davison and Santoku America (USA); Shin-Etsu nies that produce REEs, under the symbol REMX, has begun
and Anan Kasei (Japan); Treibacher Industrie AG (Austria); AS trading on October 28, 2010, on the NYSE Area Stock Exchange,
Silmet (Estonia). Most of these producers are specialised in tracking an index comprising 24 mining companies (Ghosh, 2010).
magnets and catalysts (Spooner, 2011). Since that date, the value of REMX-ETF rose until April 2011 (from
The concentration of production in a small number of coun- 20.61 at 27.78 US$ pro quota). Between April and September 2011 it
tries and the drastic reduction in exports, with a rapid industria- fell, reaching to the value of 15.36 US$ (Yahoo Finance, 2011).
lisation of emerging economies (first of all, China, India and
Brazil), intensified competition for raw materials and caused a
huge and sudden rise in the prices of these raw materials in the Demand–supply balance vs. prices trends
last years.
For example, we’ll list the prices of the most important of them The segmented lines, shown in Fig. 1, and their implicit
(taking into account the following factors: a nominal of 99% REOs corresponding trends have many interesting points of discussion,
 S. Massari, M. Ruberti / Resources Policy 38 (2013) 36–43 39

Fig. 1. Rare-earth oxides (purity 99% min) supply (Chinese export quota), Rest of World (ROW) demand and prices (FOB China basis).
Source: Lynas Corp. (2012), Metalpages Inc. (2011–2012), Hatch, 2011, Molycorp Inc. (2012); Frontier Rare Earths Ltd. (2012), Kingsnorth (2010b), and British Geological
Survey (2011).

but, before analysing and commenting on them, some methodo- The analysis of historical trends of prices, demand and supply
logical clarifications concerning the construction of the chart in starts from 2005 and comes to the first three-month financial
question have to be done. Primarily, as regards prices, only period (Q1) of 2012, as regards the prices, or to the entire year
eight selected rare-earth oxides (lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, 2012, regarding the quantities. The values of ROW demand of
praseodymium, samarium, dysprosium, europium and terbium) 2011 and 2012 are estimated data, since there are still no official
have been considered since they have certainly, by far, the highest data. The Chinese export quota for 2012 appears to be almost
commercial interest among all. In fact, in a reliable forecasted certain because, on December 27, 2011, the Chinese Ministry
supply/production analysis, conducted by the Industrial Minerals of Commerce announced that the first round of export quota
Company, these eight elements will represent in 2014 over 90% of allocations for 2012 would have been of 24,904 t (21,700 t of LREs
the production of all rare earths, equal to 203,500 REOs tonnes, plus 3204 t of M/HREs), which represent 80% of the total quota
and 93% of the forecasted 2014 demand, equal to 180,000 REOs allocations for the entire 2012. Then, the projected total quota for
tonnes (Smith, 2010). A second reason is that, until now, there are 2012 will be of 31,130 t, slightly higher than those of the previous
not available regular and reliable pricing information about the years (30,258 t, for 2010, and 30,246 t, for 2011), but much less
other metals (most of them sold by private transactions), as than that of 2009 (50,145 t), both for Chinese-owned companies
recognised also by many industrial analysts of this sector (Lynas and for Chinese/non-Chinese joint ones (Hatch, 2011).
Corp., 2012). Looking at Fig. 1, a strong increase in prices between 2010 and
Another important prerequisite concerns the choice of con- 2011 – especially for europium, terbium and dysprosium, belong-
sidering the global supply of rare earths coinciding with the ing to the group of HREs (more predominant in monazite’s
export quotas set annually by the Chinese government. That minerals) – is immediately evident. These elements have had a
because, currently, almost the entire world production of REEs particularly strong demand and price growth because there are no
is prerogative of China, as seen in the previous paragraphs. Then, new mines and/or effective substitutes for high performance
since the prices are determined largely on Chinese FOB basis and applications, such as components of high power magnets, used
only for those exporting goods, for reasons of methodological in some electric/hybrid vehicles and wind turbines (Northern
rigour, homogeneity, aggregation and comparability of statistical Minerals Ltd., 2012). This explosion of prices, in particular, seems
data, only the dynamics of ROW (Rest of World or non-China to be correlated with the dynamics of supply rather than those of
countries) demand and those of Chinese quotas (as global supply) demand. In fact, the collapse of the Rest of World demand in 2009
will be considered. This also, because only for these two variables (fallen, from 2008 to 2009, from 56,000 t/year to about 24,000 t/
(ROW demand and Chinese quotas), statistically comparable, year), largely as a consequence of the global economic downturn
there are reliable statistical information. The following important and recession, seems not to have had immediate repercussions on
assumption is that the global REs demand coincides with the prices of rare earths, with the exception, perhaps, of the slight
ROW one. In addition, the FOB prices, that will be considered, are decline of the price of terbium. Conversely, it seems that it was
related to the REs exported by China. In this regard, we noted that the contraction of the global REOs supply – as announced, on
rare-earths prices, referring to the amounts that are sold within September 1, 2009, by the Chinese Government launching an
the Chinese borders, are much lower than FOB ones and then integrated ‘‘mining quotas policy’’ – the main cause of the
these data would not be statistically correlated between them. So, exorbitant increase of prices, which average datum, referring to
it would not be methodologically correct to compare the inter- the eight elements considered, showed a rise of 390%, between
national FOB prices and the amounts of rare earths demanded 2010 and 2011, from 188 US$/kg to 921 US$/kg. Even with
within Chinese borders. The differences in prices (between ROW essentially stable demand (51,500 t in 2010 and 56,000 t in
and China goods) are due to political reasons and to the sig- 2011) and supply, in the years immediately after 2010, prices
nificant incidence of added value levy and export duties on REEs have continued to rise due to the spread between demand and
leaving the Chinese country: these tariff rates vary from 15% to supply, as we can see in Fig. 1, and also, probably, due to
25% (Metalpages Inc., 2011–2012). pessimistic expectations of economic operators which fear a
40 S. Massari, M. Ruberti / Resources Policy 38 (2013) 36–43

chronic shortage of REEs availability and even more significant In particular, from Q1 to Q3 period of 2011, terbium increases
increases of prices in the short term. Then there is still the need to of 420%, dysprosium of 450% and europium even of 580%. In
look at alternative technologies and recycling options; in addition, addition to being rarer, these three HREEs have assumed increas-
higher prices could encourage development of mining operations ingly importance in industry (British Geological Survey, 2011).
outside China, in order to avoid a serious destruction of the future During the last recorded date, on June 2012, prices returned
ROW demand. substantially to those levels of the second quarter of 2011. This
As regards as the growth in world demand (including China), effect is most likely attributable to the deflation of the speculative
between 2005 and 2010, most of it came from China (11% per bubble – that had contaminated the trading market at the middle
year), while the growth in the rest of world (discussed here) is months of 2011 – as a result of stockpile drawdown and to the
almost 4% per year, probably due to the economic crisis and to the justifiable refusal, by the buyers, to pay such high prices. These
restricted availability. Over the next three years, it seems that prices, however, remain still very high.
more than one-third of the growth of demand will be attributable In these circumstances, it is easily understandable that it
to the expansion of industrial applications of NdFeB high-pow- becomes difficult to predict, with a certain margin of time, what
ered magnets, having an annual growth of 9.9% (Molycorp, 2012). will be the future levels of prices. For their determination, in fact,
Other important demand segments will be those of NiMH several factors act simultaneously: not only supply and demand,
batteries, phosphors, optical glass and ceramics (Roskill but also important speculative pushing phenomena and general-
Information Services, 2011). At a general level, according to a ised concerns about a sudden supply shortage of these resources
reliable information source (Industrial Minerals Company of in the coming years. Also the low number of suppliers has caused
Australia Pty Ltd, IMCOA), the global REs demand, in the period the recent high pricing fluctuations (UK Houses of Parliament,
2011–2014, is forecasted to increase between 8% and 11% a year: 2011). However, it seems clear that, at least in the medium–long
the highest growth is expected for magnets (10–15%) and metal term, global availability of these minerals will increase, following
alloys (15–20%), as required in hybrid and electric vehicles (Kara the opening of new mines in different parts of the world; even if it
et al., 2010). will increase in parallel, probably at even greater extent, the total
As we can see from the graph concerned, from 2010 there was consumption of REEs, due to continuous growth in existing and
a substantial and widening gap between supply and demand (in innovative applications and to development of new end uses.
2011, in particular, REOs Chinese supply has been less than 60% of
ROW demand), preceded by another remarkable gap between
Chinese REOs production and exports since 2003 (Smith, 2010). Possible commercial conflicts
The surplus of the amount of REs supplied compared with those
demanded has gradually reduced over the years until reaching, in Some rumblings of possible future commercial battles about
the last three years, situations of dramatically deficit. The annual the cornering of these precious and strategic resources occurred
difference between supply and demand has changed radically: on September 2010. From that date, in fact, the Chinese Govern-
19,000 t in 2005, 12,000 t in 2006, 6500 t in 2007, 1000 t in 2008, ment decided to stop temporarily its exports of REs to Japan,
26,000 t in 2009 (due to the cited general economic crisis), taking as pretext a dispute over maritime boundaries (Bradsher,
21,000 t in 2010,  26,000 in 2011 and, very probably, 2010; Areddy et al., 2010). As a result of this, Tokyo and Hanoi
28,000 during the current year. The industrial sectors that, have signed a co-operation agreement to help Japan in REs supply,
more than others, will suffer immediate repercussions from this in exchange of Japanese aid to Vietnam, in building its first
situation will undoubtedly be those which use, on downstream nuclear power plants (BBC News, 2010).
goods, very big amounts of REEs in applications such as catalysts This episode, even if geographically confined, has alerted
(UK Houses of Parliament, 2011). Moreover, at least in the short companies around the world that depend by these crucial
term, ROW countries will put a temporary remedy with consis- commodities. In fact, this was only a first indication. The Beijing
tent national stockpiling efforts, given China’s continued dom- Government, indeed, after having raised duties for export of 25%,
inance of REs production, and intensifying, urgently, the efforts in has reduced of 70% its shares for sale abroad (Covington & Burling
the identification and development of non-China REs new LLP, 2011). Moreover, China wants to export only 60% of the
sources. world’s supply in 2011 and it has proposed the most important
In Table 1, the prices of the most important rare earths (the multinational companies (BASF, General Electric and Siemens),
same eight ones as those seen in Fig. 1) over the last few months that use these minerals, to transfer their production on Chinese
have been reported, starting from the first quarter (Q1) of 2011 soil (US–China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2010).
and ending at the date of 4 June 2012. Beijing has officially explained these intentions on the motiva-
Prices reached their peaks, the highest ever since these tion to reorganise the entire industry of RE in the next five years, in
materials are traded, during the third quarter (Q3) of 2011. order to stop the illegal production and exports and to protect the
environment. The real reason seems, instead, to encourage their
Table 1 internal industries operating in hi-tech production by penalising
REOs prices on FOB China basis (US$ per kg). foreign competitors (Fubini, 2010). Besides, the Foreign Investment
Source: Lynas Corp. (2012), Metalpages Inc. (2011–2012), Frontier Rare Earths Ltd. Industry Guidance Catalogue, a document issued by China’s National
(2012), and British Geological Survey (2011).
Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of
Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 04/06/2012 Commerce (MOFCOM) which governs foreign investment in Chinese
companies, in the latest revision (2007) imposes further restrictions
La 75.90 135.02 117.68 66.46 42.31 24.00 on foreign investment in mineral exploration and development
Ce 77.50 138.29 118.65 59.31 37.92 25.00
activities of strategic materials, like rare earths (Vivoda, 2011).
Nd 130.20 256.15 338.85 244.23 177.31 120.00
Pr 119.70 220.08 244.73 209.62 163.08 120.00 The side effect is, how it is easy to expect, a considerable
Sm 72.80 125.60 129.45 95.31 73.85 88.00 appreciation of these raw materials, causing a sharp rise of their
Dy 412.90 921.20 2262.31 2032.31 1366.15 1070.00 prices and also distorting worldwide competition for the down-
Eu 719.20 1830.00 4900.00 3800.00 3623.08 2320.00 stream industries.
Tb 717.60 1659.20 3761.40 2973.85 2658.46 2000.00
Average 290.73 660.69 1484.13 1185.14 1017.77 720.88
The critical importance about the REs availability, especially in
a period of severe economic crisis like this, was recognised by 33
 S. Massari, M. Ruberti / Resources Policy 38 (2013) 36–43 41

of the most important industrial associations of USA, Europe and electronics, electric motors and audio equipments (Nd, Sm, Dy,
Japan, in an open letter to the G-20 leaders at the 2010 Summit in Pr, Tb), catalysts for automobiles (Ce, La, Nd), batteries and
Seoul (Korea). Among the signers there are Businesseurope (the hydrogen storage systems (mischmetal, lanthanum alloys), phos-
Union of Industrial and Employers’ Confederations of Europe, phors for display screens, fluorescent and halogen lamps, X-ray
UNICE, to which adheres Confindustria and other forty similar films (Y, Er, Tb, La, Gd, Ce), fibre optics/lasers (La, Er, Y), advanced
organisations of the old continent) and powerful lobbies, includ- ceramics (Y), capacitors (La, Nd, Ce), fuel additives (Ce), fuel cells
ing the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers and the Consumer (La, Y), pigments (La, Ce), magnetic refrigeration (Gd), steel and
Electronics Association (USMMA, 2010). This document calls on foundry materials for desulphurisation (mischmetal), magnesium,
the Governments of the major nations of the world to recognise aluminium alloys and hydrogen storage alloys (Ce, Nd, La, Y)
the importance of ensuring a free and secure access to REs (Arafura Resources Inc., 2011; Molycorp Minerals Corp., 2011;
resources, inviting them to renounce to commercial interferences Tianjiao International Inc., 2011; Moores, 2010; Naumov, 2008).
and other market-distorting measures, like export taxes or According to data of IMCOA (Industrial Minerals Company of
quotas. Australia Pty Ltd.) of March 2011, REOs world’s 2010 demand for
the main industrial application was the following: magnets
(26,000 t, equal to 21% of a total demand of around 125,000 t),
Applications catalysts (24,500 t, 20%), metal alloys (22,000 t, 18%), polishing
(19,000, 15%), glass (11,000 t, 9%), phosphors (8500 t, 7%), cera-
The first application of REs took place in 1890s, in Vienna, with mics (7000 t, 5%) and others (7000 t, 5%). A considerable increase
the commercialisation of the first gas mantles, consisting of a mix in the use of REOs for magnets is expected by 2015 (Kingsnorth,
of various lanthanides oxides and other metals (Szabadvary, 2011; Moores, 2010).
1988). In 1903, always in Vienna, Carl Auer von Welsbach, The use of REs permanent magnets (principally as NdFeB
chemical engineer and Bunsen’s collaborator, deposited a patent alloys), for electric motors, allows to have high power and torque,
about the use of a cerium-iron alloy, which he called ‘‘Auermetal’’, as well as smaller and lighter devices, as in the case of hard disk
for lighter flint (Fleck, 1958). Today the applications of these drives devices. This feature is also very important for future mass
metals are generally used with increasing success, thanks to their applications on hybrid vehicles (Moores, 2010).
superior characteristics.
REs, in fact, thanks to the configuration of their electrons in
atomic structure, have many desirable features: (1) ability of Alternatives and recovery
forming, alloyed with other metals, very strong and light mag-
netic materials; (2) valuable and distinctive optical properties, Some research centres are even engaged to find artificial
including fluorescence and emission of coherent light, essential substitutes of REEs. For example, the DOE is funding – through
for laser devices; (3) other unique nuclear, metallurgical, chemical, the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) program –
catalytic, electrical, magnetic, and optical properties of the REEs several innovative projects. One of these relates to the University
have led them to an ever increasing variety of applications. of Delaware, Hitachi and GE, about nano-composites that would
Their fields of application are numerous: automotive, nuclear, make alternative, strong magnets that do not need REs’ ingredi-
oil, green technologies, etc. As well as critical resources for many ents (Bourzac, 2011). Another ARPA-E funding research, lead by
hi-tech civil applications (even essential for the development of the University of Nebraska scientists, tries to enhance permanent
emerging ‘‘green energy’’ technologies, such as wind power, magnets with FeCo alloy (Aston, 2010).
efficient lighting, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles or PHEVs, and There are, however, very few effective alternatives to REs. For
so on), they also have strategic importance, because of their what concerns specific technologies, for example, some manufac-
advanced applications in the military field for night-vision gog- tures use common electromagnets rather than permanent REs
gles, cruise missiles and other weapons. It seems, in fact, that last magnets for induction motors, though these engines are larger
generations, and some radar guidance systems (like the Aegis and heavier (Aston, 2010).
Spy-1 Radar) (Richardson, 2011) for missiles use permanent A group of Japanese researchers, led by Hiroshi Kitagawa of
magnets NdFeB and SmCo based alloys (Bloomberg, 2010). Kyoto University, has developed a process that allows the pro-
A 2009 report of the US Defence National Stockpile Centre duction, mixing rhodium and silver, of a metal similar to palla-
(DNSC) recognised four REEs – lanthanum, cerium, europium and dium, which can be used in the manufacture of catalytic
gadolinium – as responsible for the production delay, for some converters (Physorg Inc., 2011).
kinds of weapon systems, recommending to do more research in European countries, so poor of mineral resources and not self-
order to determine the severity of the shortage of these raw sufficient to meet domestic demand of these critical materials, are
materials (Martin, 2010). intensifying the efforts to increase the share of REs recovery and
In the automotive industry, REMs are used to build high- recycling of hi-tech wastes (above all, used electronics such as cell
efficiency and long-lasting catalysts, neodymium superefficient phones and computers), considered as real ‘‘mines’’ (‘‘urban
magnets for electric motors, superlight and long-lasting lantha- mining’’, as it is commonly used to say), plenty and readily
num-NiMH batteries and so on. available for us. At the moment, however, only a small percentage
Other sectors that use REEs include the oil industry (petroleum of rare earth is recycled and thus the full potential of many of
cracking catalysts, i.e. lanthanum in fluid-cracking catalyst), the these resources is not being exploited (Dodson et al., 2012). For
sector of renewable energies (wind turbines with NdFeB mag- example, there are several studies about the possibility of easily
nets), fine chemicals (polishing products, pigments for glass and recovering REEs from spent Ni-metal hydride batteries (Li et al.,
ceramic industry), metallurgy (additives and alloys), nuclear 2009; Rodrigues and Mansur, 2010).
(miniature magnets), electric and electronic equipments (fluor- Dowa Holdings, i.e., has built, in Kosaka (Japan), a recycling
escent tubes, superconductors, lasers, etc.). facility that performs the smelting of old electronics parts –
In particular, actual applications regard: glass polishing (Ce); recovered from around Japan and abroad – into a molten stew
glass additives for optical lenses and display screens (Ce, La, Nd); from which precious metals and other minerals, like indium, gold,
lighter flints (mischmetal alloy); petroleum catalysts and fluid silver, antimony, neodymium, dysprosium and other REs can be
cracking (mixed RE products); high intensity magnets for extracted (Tabuchi, 2010).
42 S. Massari, M. Ruberti / Resources Policy 38 (2013) 36–43

Another Japanese company, Sumitomo Corporation, plans to The level of their prices depends, apart from their extraction
establish a joint venture with Kazakhstan’s government to difficulty and their heavy impact on the environment, also on the
recover REEs from uranium ore residues (Sumitomo Corp., 2010). fact that REs represent highly strategic resources, thanks to their
In recent years, there are numerous scientific contributions, numerous applications in the field of new technologies and in the
especially from Japan, which suggest methods to obtain conve- military sector. It is estimated that a market value of over 2000
niently REs from wastes and sludge (Saito et al., 2006). billion dollars depends entirely on the use of REs; for these
reasons, all sectors that have relevance with these materials are
making increasingly massive investments (Rubanov, 2011).
Environmental issues Whatever will happen, one thing is sure: REs, along with the
resource management of drinking water, oil and phosphorous (for
We mentioned above how the current extraction methods are fertilisers), will be crucial and decisive for the redefinition of the
all high-pollution impact techniques, so that numerous sites international global balances of the near future.
around the world remain unused. Over a longer term, it is easily predictable that nanotechnology
The biggest problem of REs, besides the low concentration of will replace various critical materials, like the REEs, in many of
resources, is that these minerals are associated with radioactive the current uses, by emulating their properties and thus reducing
elements (particularly thorium and uranium). So they require their quantities needed.
expensive mitigation measures to ensure adequate environmental However, the key to REM supply security is, as Winston
protection and workers’ safety. The required advanced mining Churchill said about the oil, ‘‘diversity and diversity alone’’. In
techniques and the very obvious significant capital investments other words, the need to ensure stable supplies of these materials,
represent other important barriers to entry for new subjects. and to support hi-tech industries, could be reached by different,
In addition, during the production cycles, there is the need to but concurrent, approaches: (a) by diversifying and globalising the
consume huge quantities of water, acidic substances and elec- supply chains by a better and undistorted access to raw materials
tricity for their extraction, separation and refining; especially, on world markets; (b) by signing more bilateral trade agreements
during the phases of ion-exchange, fractional crystallisation and and encouraging multilateral contacts with developing countries
liquid–liquid extraction (Ecclestone, 2010). within WTO or OECD; (c) by enriching national strategic reserves
For these reasons, the most important mine in USA, located in for the years ahead; (d) by investing in research and development
Mountain Pass (California), was blocked about twelve years ago. of suitable substitutes; (e) by adopting more environmentally-
In fact, there was a considerable release, into the environment sound and easier extraction methods to reduce their lifecycle
and groundwater, of hazardous chemical and radioactive elements. footprint; (f) by finding ways to recycle and reuse these scarce
Now, as a result of the rise in prices of these commodities, it is and strategic materials, i.e. extracting precious materials from
expected to reopen it, but it will take many years to become fully WEEEs (waste electrical and electronic equipments), real ‘‘urban
operational again. mining’’ resources, as we said above; (g) by increasing resource
Western Countries are penalised from this point of view. There is a efficiency and optimising their use in a more judicious and
need, in fact, of miners’ protection technologies, considerable invest- effective way; (h) by promoting and improving availability of
ments and complex permissions. All of these limitations, until now, statistical information; (i) by identifying those producing countries
have not been necessary in China and in other emerging countries that have lower risks of supply, evaluating their economic and
thanks to their much less stringent regulations. political stability and environmental policies, making use of widely
In effect, the situation of the environment and the health appropriate indicators, such as the World Bank ‘‘Worldwide
conditions of the inhabitants of villages around Batou (Mongolia) Governance Indicator’’ (WGI) and the ‘‘Environmental Performance
seem to be dramatic: increase in cases of cancer, respiratory Index’’ (EPI), developed by the Joint Research Centre; (l) by
diseases, dental loss, pollution of drinking water sources, with a promoting research activities, sustainable exploration and extrac-
radioactive risk of polluting the water of the Yellow River (Schüler tion (‘‘intelligent mining’’), and substitutions exploitation, as EU
et al., 2011). has begun to do with the Seventh Framework Programme for
Some sources estimated that, every year, the mines around Research and Development, financing projects like as ProMine and
Batou produce about ten million tonnes of highly acid and ERA-NET (Karas, 2011).
radioactive wastewater; most of these waters are released into
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