Ijiem 283
Ijiem 283
Ijiem 283
Sustainability Development Goals require each country and region to adjust their environ- Article history:
mental and social policies to ensure a timely global response, stabilization of climate, and
Received February 26, 2021
social equality. Vojvodina's area has unique challenges due to its political status and signif-
icant dependence on environmental resources to ensure its economy, energy supply and Revised May 24, 2021
food security. The researchers reviewed potential challenges to Vojvodina's sustainable de- Accepted May 25, 2021
velopment based on analysis of long-term trend changes of temperature and water flow. To Published online June 11, 2021
support sustainable development, Vojvodina region needs to strive for the integral concept
of flood protection, which includes harmonization of “human” demands component and Keywords:
“environmental” demands components. Climate change;
Temperature;
Trends;
Resources;
Exploitation;
Sustainable
*Corresponding author:
Aleksandra Pavlović
di8.2018@uns.ac.rs
ute the most to total greenhouse gas emissions. as meeting the needs of the present generation with-
Humans are intrinsically connected to the envi- out compromising the needs of future generations.
ronment, and as such, their activities inevitably affect Responsible behavior towards future generations is
natural processes and environmental sustainability fundamental because they do not have the "right to
[2]. Local climate change trends could compromise vote" and therefore cannot influence policymaking
improvements and accomplishments of current man- at present. Thus, the principle of intergeneration-
ufacturing technologies as variability in environmen- al equality must be respected. Economic growth is
tal impacts increases [3]. As stated by Halsnæs et al. desirable and acceptable only if it does not lead to
[4], there is a dual relationship between sustainable the degradation of natural resources that are limited
development and climate change. Recognition of and scarce, i.e., they are not in abundance. Required
that relationship requires adaptation of laws, industri- fields for defining sustainability and sustainable de-
al practices, and social traditions. Many international velopment are economics, politics, sociology, ecolo-
studies and papers [5]-[13] address the importance gy, and sciences explaining environmental processes.
of adopting and respecting the relationship between Due to the diversity of social-economic-environmen-
climate change and sustainable development. The tal systems and national interests, there is a discrep-
major challenge for lawmakers is to balance the eco- ancy in methods and implementation of appropriate
nomic and environmental aspects of actions required strategies between global and local perspectives. All
to achieve Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). human activities are associated with consumption
Keeping the balance is especially hard in countries and production, resulting in resource depletion and
and regions that do not accumulate enough financial pollution of the environment.
capital for domestic investments. The only opportu- Applying climate change policies influences
nity for economic growth is attracting foreign capi- the environment and changes the course of natural
tal. Attracting foreign capital comes with the price of changes. Deliberative public-private partnerships
lowering environmental and social standards in the work most effectively when investors, local govern-
shape of a cheap workforce or lack of pollution re- ments and citizen groups are willing to work together
strictions, monitoring or enforcement. Such actions to implement new technologies and produce arenas
are endangering the long-term sustainability of the to discuss these technologies that are locally inclusive
environment and economy. Design of regulatory re- [16]. There is growing awareness that climate change,
sponse to ever-growing economic and social needs extreme climate events, non-linear impacts and tip-
for natural resources must be based on scientific es- ping points should play a significant role in sustain-
timates of their future availability and sustainability. able development strategies [17]. Many of the meth-
This paper is structured into four sections. Section ods and activities designed to adapt to climate change
2 gives a general overview of sustainability, sustain- are integrated into measures taken to achieve nation-
able development imperatives, and climate change of al development goals, poverty alleviation, disaster
the Autonomous Province of Serbia, Vojvodina. Sec- risk reduction, and other sustainable development
tion 3 explains used materials and methods. Its first and resilience (e.g., the green economy, green jobs
subsection provides data and sources. The second and green growth). Simultaneously, efforts to mitigate
subsection describes research methods. The third climate change are gathering momentum and gener-
subsection summarizes the results of trends analyses ating changes within human society [18].
of selected climate variables in Vojvodina. Sections 4 Sustainable development considers all population
and 5 provide discussion and conclusions. issues, politics, economic, industrial development,
and climate change issues [2]. Vojvodina, as an au-
tonomous province of Serbia, located in the northern
2. Climate Change and Sustainable part of the country, is a territory with more stable cli-
Development mate parameters than other regions [19]. Vojvodina
area has a history of the negative rate of population
The term sustainable development came into change, which influences social planning and popu-
force when the World Commission on Environment lation vulnerability rate. To ensure sustainable devel-
and Development (WCED) was formed for the first opment Vojvodina region needs to overcome chal-
time by the United Nations in 1987. The term is lenges and develop hazard resistant society [20]. The
most often used to denote practices that are more sustainable development strategy of the Republic of
environmentally friendly than others [14]. Commis- Serbia, in which Vojvodina is the northern Province,
sion members [15] defined sustainable development identifies the Vojvodina region as crucial in ensuring
the sustainable economy of the country. At the same Senta – Novi Bečej (Tisza), Sremska Mitrovica
time, it is noticeable degradation of life quality in the (Sava). For all six profiles, equations of rating curves
Vojvodina region. The Autonomous Province of Vo- were provided based on observed rating curves. Hy-
jvodina (APV) economy constitutes almost a third of drometeorological data came from the Republic Hy-
the gross domestic product of the Republic of Serbia. drometeorological Service of Serbia.
In contrast, the gross domestic product per capita
exceeds the national average. The most developed 3.2 Research Methods
sectors of the industry include manufacturing, whole-
sale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and The research summarizes the 50-year annual and
motorcycles, agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining, monthly air temperature and rainfall variations in Vo-
and professional, scientific, innovative, and technical jvodina's Province with the help of a linear tendency
activities. estimation and a climate trends statistical method. In
Vojvodina is the most important agricultural re- modern systems, temperature monitoring via various
gion of Serbia due to its high-quality soil types with temperature data loggers is of great importance for
high production values, the wealth of water and regu- the normal functioning of these systems [21]. Analy-
lated water regime [19]. It covers around 1.75 million ses of the trend of change of the relative air tempera-
hectares of farmland, accounting for about 34% of ture, extreme air temperatures, precipitation regime
the agricultural area in Serbia, while cultivated fields and rain factor were conducted. Based on this, the
and gardens encompass nearly half of arable land in intensity of climate change in Vojvodina's Province
Serbia [19]. Vojvodina provides over 90% of the total was evaluated. A meteorological drought index SPI6
production of sugar beet, sunflower and soybean in was used to estimate the long-term effect on water
Serbia and is famous for its production of grain and resources. Trends of four selected hydrological pa-
industrial crops [19]. As an agricultural area, Vojvo- rameters were assessed with the help of calculated
dina's economy is more than dependent on climate rating curves. The specific calculation methods used
variables and climate change. Regulatory actions are as follows:
require scientific input of climate change and envi- Linear trend, based on a sequence of pairs of
ronmental degradation trends. Studies have pointed values
out that global trends can be but are not necessarily
accompanied by the same local trends [13]. Thus, to
mitigate the effects of climate change in Vojvodina, it
was essential to review the trends of selected climate
parameters.
where X represents the time variable and Y pres-
3. Materials and Methods ents the changes to some phenomena in time, then
such a series of pairs of {Xi, Yi}, represents a time
series.
3.1 Source
Time series analysis observes tendency or trend
The original study of climate change trends [13] [22].
used monthly temperature and rainfall data over 50
years from 1950 to 2006 from seven Vojvodina sta-
tions. For a better overview of the hydrological re-
gime, six hydrological stations in the system of the
Republic Hydro-meteorological Service of Serbia Relevant to the research presented in this paper
were considered. The hydrological network of Vo- was the linear trend.
jvodina consists of three large rivers Danube, Sava The linear trend model shows the observed time
and Tisza and an extended network of streams and series's linear movement (positive or negative) values.
channels. Sava and Tisza, together with other streams The line of a linear trend model is made using the
in Vojvodina, are part of the Danube River Basin. method of least squares regression. The essence of
The Tisza, with its tributaries, provides a significant the least-squares process is that it minimizes the sum
contribution to the hydrological regime of Vojvodina. of squared deviations of all points of a given line to
Stations covered in analyses are Bezdan, Bogojevo, get the best line adapted to the series. Of all the lines
Novi Sad – Slankamen (Danube), Novi Kneževac, y = ax + b, the most likely direction of regression is
the one for which the sum of squares of deviations annual fluctuation of air temperature.
In this statement, the coldest month will have a
relative temperature of 0% and the hottest 100%. For
other months of the year, the relative air temperature
is derived from the relationship of the two differenc-
es: differences of the temperature of the observed
The sum of squares of deviation is minimal when and the coldest month and the temperature differ-
ence of the hottest and coldest months [23].
at the same time ( )
∂f a ,b ∂f ( a ,b )
= 0=i 0
∂a ∂b Precipitation regime (distribution within the year)
usually is represented with relative annual variations
∂f ( a ,b ) ∂f ( a ,b )
and
= 0= i 0 are valid. of precipitation [23]:
∂a ∂b
Deserts 0-20
Arid
Semi deserts 20-40
Steppe 40-60
Rating curve or the functional dependence of Q=f measure of the adequacy of the obtained functions.
(H) provides an unambiguous relation between the Tables 3 through 7 depict the rating curves for
discharge and water level. A functional dependency selected hydrological profiles.
is often in the polynomial form [25]:
Category SPI
Table 3. Functional dependency of discharge from the stage (water level) (equations)
The value of the coefficient of determination R 2 for the resulting functional dependence
Station
Q=f(H)
Bezdan 1
Bogojevo 0.99981
Sremska
0.99703
Mitrovica
Table 5. The functional dependence of discharge at Novi Sad profile from the stage at Slankamen profile based on parameter curve
Absolute value a b1 b2 R2
Table 6. Equations were obtained based on parameter curves for discharge for the River Tisza at the hydrological s
tations Novi Kneževac
Stage at profile Novi Functional dependencies Q=f(H) for the Tisza at Novi Kneževac Coefficient of
Bečej 1 absolute (approximate values of coefficients) determination R2
1 Referent station is Novi Bečej G.V., due to inhomogenity and missing data for period 1950 –1981 hydrological profile Novi Bečej
was adopted as referent one.
Table 7. Equations were obtained based on parameter curves for discharge for the River Tisza at the hydrological stations Senta
Stage at profile Novi Functional dependencies Q=f(H) for the Tisza at Senta Coefficient of
Bečej 2 absolute (approximate values of coefficients) determination R2
Table 8. Trend and intensity of direction of change of the precipitation, annual precipitation regime, rain factor and SPI6 in 50 years,
on seven major meteorological stations in Vojvodina
Annual precipitation
Precipitation [mm] Rain factor [mm/°C] SPI6
regime [%]
Table 9. The mean annual discharge trend, maximum and minimum yearly stage and minimum monthly stages in 50 years, on six
major hydrological profiles in Vojvodina
River hydrological profile Mean annual discharge [m3/s] Maximum annual stage Minimum annual stage
Danube warm season cold season absolute units annual monthly
Bezdan ↘ ↘ ⇢ ↘ ↘
Bogojevo ↘ ↘ ↗ ↘ ↘
Novi Sad ↘ ↘ ↗ ↘ ↘
Tisza
Novi Knezevac ↗ ↘ ↗ ↗ ↗
Senta ↗ ↘ ↗ ↗ ↗
Sava
Sremska Mitrovica ↘ ↘ ↘ ↘ ↘
2006. A recent analysis [26]-[28] indicates that the re- which includes harmonization of "human" demands
gion's growing urbanization will only further intensify component (protection of property and human life)
environmental degradation and climate change. and "environmental" demands components (the pres-
The regional government of APV relies on Vo- ervation or restoration of the natural features and re-
jvodina resources for future development, especially sources within the floodplain) [30].
in the energy sector. The goals of the energy poli- Besides agriculture, impacts of observed climate
cy of the Republic of Serbia, as well as APV, are to change that are mandatory to consider are on the
construct new facilities satisfying the requirements groundwater and the consequences for the popula-
in terms of energy efficiency and use of Renewable tion, mainly through availability and quality of drink-
Energy Sources (RES), to replace fossil fuel with bio- ing water. It would be essential to conduct a feasibility
mass and other RES such as hydro and wind [24]. study on the available amount of water in river basins
All renewable energy resources are highly vulnerable and its impact on coastal cities and their industry. Vo-
to climate change effects and impacts [29]. The rise jvodina's regulators could
of temperature does not only mean a shorter heating Rural Tourism is one of the industry branches
season, but the disturbance of the entire course of the that can be significantly affected by changing climate.
current energy and heat supply methods that were Rural tourism is recognized as essential for future
based on stable temperature trends and well-estab- stabilization and sustainable growth of Vojvodina. It
lished seasons. Different RES competes for the same supports local production and enhances the coping
resources – water and soil, with other industries such capacities of small and medium villages to resist ur-
as agriculture and fishery. A detailed study on how banization or loss of residents due to migration to
the diverse function of RES is affected by different urban centers [31]. The current greatest challenge
users and the availability of RES for all stakeholders for the rural Vojvodina is ensuring sustainable water
is required [30]. supply for the communities and protection of water
As trend analysis indicates, the region would not resources from overuse of pesticides and industrial
be equally affected by upcoming changes; thus, re- chemicals [32]–[34].
gional plans would have to consider local deviances The industrial development of Vojvodina must
and incorporate them into development strategies for rely on the utilization of circular economy principles,
sustainable energy supply. Based on the examination green chemistry, and RES [34]. Vojvodina's chemi-
of average annual flow trends, it can be concluded cal and oil industry must seek alternatives and ensure
that the territory of Vojvodina is under the influence sustainability and growing employment opportunities
of climate changes that are significantly affecting and in the sectors. Recycling industries and new building
changing socio-economic strategy in the Province. materials, currently underutilized and without regu-
Due to the significant agricultural character of Vo- latory incentives, are opportunities that Vojvodina's
jvodina, it is required to consider the changes made regulator must inbuild in sustainability strategy [35]–
in the meteorological and hydrological developments [36].
while budgeting and planning. Also, it is necessary to
carry out studies of prevention and early warning, as 5. Conclusions
it is to expect intensification in hazard weather and
more frequent hazard events. As biomass energy sup- This study provides challenges to Vojvodina's
ply depends on regular supply and production, it is sustainable development based on analysis of long-
intrinsically connected with future agriculture strate- term trend changes of temperature and water flow.
gies. Vojvodina's political-social-environmental position
In terms of social and economic development in within Serbia and the European Union must clarify
Vojvodina, constant increase in the need for land use before establishing any detailed sustainability strate-
in flood zones can be expected, followed by a pro- gy. There is a general lack of ongoing systematic long-
gressive increase in the value of goods and increasing term regional climate studies and their incorporation
concentration of population. In case of further use in the regulatory framework. A review of published
of old approaches, protecting coastal areas would literature noted a lack of integrated studies address-
require a permanent and substantial investment in ing the circular economy, sustainable development,
facilities. Even with high economic investments, the green chemistry, social equality for the Vojvodina
risk of flooding could not be eliminated. Therefore, region. As Vojvodina's economy heavily relies on
to support sustainable development, it is necessary natural resources, it is essential to design local strate-
to strive for the integral concept of flood protection, gies that reflect the locals' climate change tendencies
and socio-economic characteristics. The great cul- Environ., vol. 30, no. 4, pp. 2038–2060, 2021, doi: 10.1002/
bse.2731.
tural diversity of Vojvodina presents the opportunity
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