Basics of

Inference

Dr. Vinay Kumar

Department of Statistics
Ram Lal Anand College
 Lesson Objectives
❑ Know what is Inference
❑ Know what is parameter estimation
❑ Understand hypothesis testing & the
“types of errors” in decision making.
❑ Know what the a-level means.
❑ Learn how to use test statistics to
examine hypothesis about population
mean, proportion
Inference

Use a random sample

to learn something
about a larger
population
 Inference
Two ways to make inference
❖ Estimation of parameters
* Point Estimation (X or p)
* Intervals Estimation
❖ Hypothesis Testing
 Statistic Parameter

Mean: X estimates ____

Standard
deviation: s estimates ____

Proportion: p estimates ____

from entire
from sample
population
Population Point estimate Interval estimate
I am 95%
Mean confident that 
Mean, , is is between 40 &
X = 50
unknown 60

Sample
 Parameter
= Statistic ± Its Error
 Sampling Distribution

X or P X or P X or P
 Standard Error

S
Quantitative Variable SE (Mean) = n

p(1-p)
Qualitative Variable SE (p) = n
 Confidence Interval

α/2 α/2
1-α
_
X
SE  SE Z-axis

95% Samples

X - 1.96 SE X + 1.96 SE
 Confidence Interval

α/2 α/2
1-α

SE  SE Z-axis p

95% Samples

p - 1.96 SE p + 1.96 SE
 Interpretation of
CI

Probabilistic Practical

In repeated sampling 100(1-a)%

We are 100(1-a)% confident
of all intervals around sample
that the single computed CI
means will in the long run include
 contains 
 Example (Sample size≥30)

An epidemiologist studied the blood glucose

level of a random sample of 100 patients. The
mean was 170, with a SD of 10.
 = X + Z SE
SE = 10/10 = 1
95
Then CI: %

 = 170 + 1.96  1 168.04   ≥ 171.96

 Example (Proportion)

In a survey of 140 asthmatics, 35% had

allergy to house dust. Construct the 95% CI
for the population proportion.
 = p + Z P(1-p) SE = 0.35(1-0.35) = 0.04
n 140
0.35 – 1.96  0.04   ≥ 0.35 + 1.96  0.04
0.27   ≥ 0.43
27%   ≥ 43%
 Hypothesis testing
A statistical method that uses sample
data to evaluate a hypothesis
about a population parameter. It
is intended to help researchers
differentiate between real and
random patterns in the data.
 What is a Hypothesis?

I assume the mean SBP of

participants is 120 mmHg
An assumption
about the population
parameter.
 Null & Alternative Hypotheses

H0 Null Hypothesis states the Assumption

to be tested e.g. SBP of participants = 120
(H0:  = 120).

H1 Alternative Hypothesis is the opposite of

the null hypothesis (SBP of participants ≠ 120
(H1:  ≠ 120). It may or may not be accepted
and it is the hypothesis that is believed to
be true by the researcher
 Level of Significance, a
Defines unlikely values of sample statistic
if null hypothesis is true. Called rejection
region of sampling distribution
Typical values are 0.01, 0.05
Selected by the Researcher at the Start
Provides the Critical Value(s) of the Test
Level of Significance, a and the Rejection Region

a Critical
Value(s)
Rejection
Regions
0
 Result Possibilities
H0: Innocent

Jury Trial Hypothesis Test

Actual Situation Actual Situation
Verdict Innocent Guilty Decision H0 True H0 False
Accept Type II
Innocent Correct Error H0 1-a
Error (b )

Reject Type I
Error Power
Guilty Correct Error
H0 (1 - b)
(a )
False False
Positive Negative
 β Factors Increasing
Type II Error
True Value of Population Parameter b d
❖ Increases When Difference Between Hypothesized
Parameter & True Value Decreases
b
Significance Level a
a
❖ Increases When a Decreases
b 
Population Standard Deviation 
❖ Increases When  Increases

Sample Size n b
❖ Increases When n Decreases
n
 p Value Test
Probability of Obtaining a Test Statistic
More Extreme ( or ) than Actual Sample
Value Given H0 Is True
Called Observed Level of Significance
Used to Make Rejection Decision
❖ If p value  a, Do Not Reject H0
❖ If p value < a, Reject H0
 Hypothesis Testing: Steps
Test the Assumption that the true mean SBP of
participants is 120 mmHg.
State H0 H0 :  = 120
State H1 H1 :   120
Choose a a = 0.05
Choose n n = 100
Choose Test: Z, t, X2 Test (or p Value)
 Hypothesis Testing: Steps

Compute Test Statistic (or compute P value)

Search for Critical Value

Make Statistical Decision rule

Express Decision
 One sample-mean Test

Assumptions
❖ Population is normally distributed

t test statistic

sample mean − null value x −  0

t= =
standard error s
n
 Example Normal Body Temperature
What is normal body temperature? Is it actually
37.6oC (on average)?

State the null and alternative hypotheses

H0:  = 37.6oC
Ha:   37.6oC
 Example Normal Body Temp (cont)
Data: random sample of n = 18 normal body temps

37.2 36.8 38.0 37.6 37.2 36.8 37.4 38.7 37.2

36.4 36.6 37.4 37.0 38.2 37.6 36.1 36.2 37.5

Summarize data with a test statistic

Variable n Mean SD SE t P
Temperature 18 37.22 0.68 0.161 2.38 0.029

sample mean − null value x −  0

t= =
standard error s
n
STUDENT’S t DISTRIBUTION TABLE
Degrees of Probability (p value)
freedom
0.10 0.05 0.01
1 6.314 12.706 63.657
5 2.015 2.571 4.032
10 1.813 2.228 3.169
17 1.740 2.110 2.898
20 1.725 2.086 2.845
24 1.711 2.064 2.797
25 1.708 2.060 2.787
 1.645 1.960 2.576
 Example Normal Body Temp (cont)
Find the p-value
Df = n – 1 = 18 – 1 = 17
From SPSS: p-value = 0.029
From t Table: p-value is
between 0.05 and 0.01. -2.11 +2.11 t
Area to left of t = -2.11 equals area
to right of t = +2.11.
The value t = 2.38 is between
column headings 2.110& 2.898 in
table, and for df =17, the p-values
are 0.05 and 0.01.
 Example Normal Body Temp (cont)
Decide whether or not the result is
statistically significant based on the p-value
Using a = 0.05 as the level of significance criterion,
the results are statistically significant because 0.029
is less than 0.05. In other words, we can reject the
null hypothesis.

Report the Conclusion

We can conclude, based on these data, that the mean
temperature in the human population does not equal
37.6.
 One-sample test for proportion

Involves categorical variables

Fraction or % of population in a category
Sample proportion (p) X number of successes
p= =
Test is called Z test n sample size
where: p −
Z is computed value Z =
π is proportion in population  (1 −  )
(null hypothesis value) n
Critical Values: 1.96 at α=0.05
2.58 at α=0.01
 Example

• In a survey of diabetics in a large city, it was

found that 100 out of 400 have diabetic foot.
Can we conclude that 20 percent of diabetics in
the sampled population have diabetic foot.
• Test at the a =0.05 significance level.
 Solution
0.25 – 0.20
Ho: π = 0.20
Z= 0.20 (1- 0.20) = 2.50
H1: π  0.20
400

Critical Value: 1.96

Decision:
Reject Reject We have sufficient evidence to
.025 .025 reject the Ho value of 20%
We conclude that in the
-1.96 +1.96
population of diabetic the
0 Z proportion who have diabetic foot
does not equal 0.20