SR 19 00134
SR 19 00134
SR 19 00134
Methodology (Public)
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
Document history
Date Issue Reason for Change Author Approved by
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
Executive summary
In November 2017 Shell announced its ambition to reduce the Net Carbon Footprint of its
portfolio of energy products with the aim of being in step with society by 2050, and with an
interim ambition of a reduction of around 20% by 2035 1. In April 2020, Shell announced its
intent to accelerate the Net Carbon Footprint ambition to align with the stretched goal of the Paris
Agreement resulting in the announcement of an increased ambition. Shell now aims to reduce the
Net Carbon Footprint of the energy products it sells by around 30% by 2035 and 65% by 2050.
Shell’s portfolio of energy products comprises liquid fuels (including GTL and biofuels) for
transport, pipeline gas and LNG for power and transport, and electricity from conventional and
renewable sources (i.e. solar and wind).
Shell has developed a methodology for the quantification and tracking of the Greenhouse Gas
(GHG) emissions from the entire life cycle of these products taking into account not only products
produced by Shell, but also all products ultimately sold by Shell, including those sourced from 3rd
parties. This report sets out that methodology, its boundary, scope and assumptions.
The methodology has been implemented within a model which calculates the Net Carbon
Footprint of the portfolio of energy products sold by Shell on the basis of gCO2e per megajoule
(MJ) of energy delivered to, and consumed by, the end-user. The model is structured around the
principal supply chains within the portfolio of energy products; more specifically the following
supply chains and steps in the product lifecycle are included:
• Liquid fuels: (i) crude oil production, (ii) transportation of crude oil (pipeline/shipping), (iii)
refining, (iv) distribution of oil products, and (v) end-use of oil products in the transport
sector.
• Pipeline gas: (i) gas production, (ii) transportation of gas via pipeline, and (iii) end-use of
gas in power generation.
• LNG: (i) gas production, (ii) transportation of gas via pipeline, (iii) liquefaction, (iv) shipping
of LNG products, (v) regasification of LNG in recipient terminals, (vi) local distribution of
gas, and (vii) end-use of gas in electricity/heat generation.
• GTL: (i) gas production, (ii) transportation of gas via pipeline, (iii) gas-to-liquid processing,
(iv) shipping of GTL products, (v) local distribution of GTL fuel products, (vi) end-use of fuel
products in the transport sector.
• Biofuels: (i) production, (ii) transportation (domestic/shipping), (iii) distribution and (iv)
end-use in the transport sector.
• Electricity from solar, wind, and other fossil and renewable sources, expressed as fossil
energy equivalent.
• CO2 reductions: the model also assesses the impact of CO2 reductions from carbon
capture and storage (CCS) projects and nature-based solutions (NBS).
Non-energy products such as chemicals, lubricants and bitumen are outside the scope of the
NCF because the end-use of these products is generally not to be consumed as fuel.
1
For further details of Shell’s NCF Ambition see; https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-
energy-future/what-is-shells-net-carbon-footprint-ambition/faq.html
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
Distribution
Shell Oil production Oil transport Shell Refinery Transportation
Fuel products
Oil Upstream assets Shipping or Pipeline Downstream assets
transport
Products
3 r d party crude supply 3 r d party oil products
Country average Regional average
3 r d party gas
Pipeline
gas Shell gas production Gas pipeline
Upstream assets Pipeline
3 r d party LNG
Industrial
LNG
Shell gas production Gas pipeline Shell LNG Shipping Regasification
Upstream assets Pipeline Shell assets LNG transport & Pipeline
Distribution
Shell gas production Gas pipeline Shell GTL Shipping
GTL Fuel products
Upstream assets Pipeline GTL assets GTL transport
transport
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
Contents
Document history .................................................................................................................. 3
Executive summary ............................................................................................................... 4
1. Introduction .................................................................................................... 10
1.1. Goal of the Net Carbon Footprint (NCF) assessment................................ 10
1.2. Overview of the methodology ................................................................ 10
1.3. Scope and boundaries of the NCF analysis ............................................ 11
1.4. Functional units .................................................................................... 12
1.5. Data requirements for the NCF calculation ............................................. 13
1.6. Assurance of the Net Carbon Footprint model and results ........................ 13
1.7. Key Assumptions made in the Lifecycle Analysis ...................................... 13
1.8. Structure of the report ........................................................................... 16
2. Oil Portfolio .................................................................................................... 17
2.1. The structure of the oil portfolio calculation ............................................. 17
2.2. Input data sources for the Oil portfolio calculation................................... 17
2.3. The methodology for the OIL supply chain .............................................. 18
2.3.1. Oil Processed calculation .................................................................... 18
2.3.2. Oil Sales calculation ........................................................................... 20
2.4. Implementation of the calculation methodology for OIL ............................ 21
2.4.1. Acronyms, Abbreviations and variables ............................................... 21
2.4.2. Lifecycle CI calculation ........................................................................ 21
2.4.3. Portfolio CI of refinery assets - Processed view ...................................... 22
2.4.4. Portfolio CI of Oil Sales ....................................................................... 24
3. Gas Portfolio .................................................................................................. 26
3.1. The structure of the gas portfolio calculation ........................................... 26
3.2. Input data for GAS portfolio calculation ................................................. 26
3.3. The methodology for the GAS Portfolio .................................................. 27
3.3.1. Gas Balance – allocation of gas production to pipeline, LNG, GTL and
power 27
3.3.2. Gas Production calculation .................................................................. 28
3.3.3. GAS Processed calculation .................................................................. 29
3.3.4. Gas Sales calculation .......................................................................... 29
3.4. Implementation of the calculation methodology for the gas portfolio ......... 30
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
6.4. Implementation of the calculation methodology for the Biofuels portfolio ... 46
6.4.1. Acronyms, abbreviations and variables ................................................ 46
6.4.2. Portfolio CI of Biofuel - Production view ................................................ 46
7. SOLAR and WIND .......................................................................................... 48
7.1. Fossil energy equivalent of electricity ...................................................... 48
7.2. Structure of the SOLAR and WIND portfolio calculation ........................... 48
7.3. SOLAR and WIND input data ............................................................... 49
7.4. The methodology for the SOLAR and WIND Portfolio .............................. 49
7.4.1. SOLAR and WIND Production calculation ............................................ 49
7.4.2. SOLAR and WIND Processed calculation.............................................. 49
7.4.3. SOLAR and WIND Sales calculation .................................................... 49
8. ELECTRICITY ................................................................................................... 50
8.1. Structure of the ELEC portfolio calculation ............................................... 50
8.2. Input data for the ELEC calculation ......................................................... 50
8.3. The methodology for the ELEC Portfolio .................................................. 51
8.3.1. ELEC Processed calculation .................................................................. 51
8.3.2. ELEC Sales calculation ........................................................................ 51
8.4. Implementation of the calculation methodology for the ELEC portfolio ....... 52
8.4.1. Acronyms, abbreviations and variables ................................................ 52
8.4.2. CI calculation ..................................................................................... 52
8.4.3. Portfolio CI of ELEC - Processed view .................................................... 53
8.4.4. Portfolio CI of ELEC - Sales view .......................................................... 53
9. Portfolio Net Carbon Footprint ......................................................................... 54
9.1. Input data for Portfolio NCF .................................................................. 54
9.2. Implementation of the methodology for the Portfolio NCF......................... 54
9.2.1. Acronyms, Abbreviations and variables ............................................... 54
9.2.2. CI calculation ..................................................................................... 54
10. CO2 Sinks ...................................................................................................... 55
10.1. Input data for CO2 sinks ..................................................................... 55
10.2. Implementation of the calculation methodology for the CO2 sinks ........... 55
10.2.1. Acronyms, Abbreviations and variables ............................................. 55
10.2.2. CI calculation ................................................................................... 55
GLOSSARY .................................................................................................... 56
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
1. Introduction
1.1. Goal of the Net Carbon Footprint (NCF) assessment
The goal of Shell’s Net Carbon Footprint (NCF) assessment is to provide an annual measure of
the lifecycle emissions intensity of the portfolio of energy products sold by Shell 2. The intended
use of the metric is to track progress in reducing the overall emissions intensity, on a lifecycle
basis, of Shell’s product portfolio, as described in Shell’s Net Carbon Footprint Ambition 3.
It is of primary importance that the NCF value responds correctly to year-on-year changes in the
make-up of Shell’s portfolio and to changes in the energy efficiency of Shell’s operations. It must
also be demonstrated that there are no material omissions within the scope of the analysis in
order that the intensity can be meaningfully compared with society’s GHG targets.
Production Transport Refining / Processing Distribution End-use Sinks e.g. CCS and NBS
Figure 2 – Indicative supply chain: An illustration of the emissions sources and sinks included in the Net Carbon
Footprint.
The NCF is based on the characteristic lifecycle emissions for each energy product and includes
the principal process steps in transporting and transforming the product from the well to the end-
user. As such, it is insensitive to the point in the supply chain at which a sale is made, since the
intensity will always be based on the full GHG lifecycle emissions of an energy product. Only net
physical transfers are included, and trading activity that doesn’t involve a physical commodity is
excluded. The fate of products after physical transfer is outside of Shell’s control, so the NCF
doesn’t differentiate between, for example, a fuel sold to a customer at a retail site who will use it
immediately and a fuel sold to an IOC, distributor or utility which may be resold again before it is
finally used.
2
Specifically, the products sold by the company and its subsidiaries, as well as Shell’s share of products
sold by its joint ventures and associates, and for LNG, including Shell’s share of LNG sold from its
investment in financial assets available for sale.
3
https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/what-is-shells-net-carbon-footprint-
ambition.html
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
Non-energy products such as chemicals, lubricants and bitumen are outside the scope of the NCF
because the end-use of these products is generally not to be consumed as fuel.
Figure 3 - An overview of Shell’s portfolio from three perspectives: Production, Processing and Sales
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
The inclusion of third-party feedstocks and products at different stages within the model means
that the WtW GHG intensity can be considered from three perspectives, as illustrated in Figure 3:
(i) Production: Energy products (mostly oil and gas) produced by Shell only.
(ii) Processed: Energy products processed by Shell using feedstocks produced by Shell and
feedstocks sourced from 3rd parties.
(iii) Sales: All energy products ultimately sold by Shell, including Shell’s own production and
products sourced from 3rd parties.
The Net Carbon Footprint is defined as the weighted average lifecycle carbon intensity of the
portfolio of energy products sold by Shell. This is the equivalent of the ‘Sales’ perspective
described above.
WtW calculations in the NCF model were conducted following ISO standards [1] for life cycle
analysis with the following clarifications:
The NCF applies only to the lifecycle emissions intensity of the energy products supplied by
Shell.
Chemicals (including lubricants and bitumen) are not energy carriers and are therefore omitted
from the scope of the NCF.
The Net Carbon Footprint methodology uses the language of “well-to-wheel” emissions but, in
fact, not all the emissions can be traced back to the well. Emissions associated with producing
fuel and transporting it to Shell assets are not included, nor are emissions associated with the
production and transport of fuels to our electricity suppliers, because insufficient data are
available to allow these emissions to be calculated. The omission is not considered to be
material 4.
These exclusions do not affect the use of the NCF as a metric for monitoring year-on-year
changes in the emissions intensity of Shell’s energy product sales. A more exhaustive analysis
might make small changes to the absolute NCF value but, most importantly, the NCF metric
achieves the goal of responding to changes in the make-up of Shell’s portfolio and to changes in
the energy efficiency of Shell’s operations.
4
Combustion typically accounts for most of the life cycle emissions from hydrocarbon fuels and emissions
from the use of these fuels at Shell facilities are captured in Shell’s Scope 1 and 2 emissions. The emissions
from the end-use of Shell products are the most significant contribution to the NCF from hydrocarbon fuels.
Therefore, the emissions associated with the production, processing and transportation of fuels used at Shell
facilities amount to a small part of a small part and omitting them does not make a material difference to
the NCF value.
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
electricity are considered to be outside the scope. Similarly, for oil products the emissions of
combustion are taken into account on a per-MJ basis, but differences in the end-use efficiency of
different vehicles is out of scope.
Electricity is treated differently because of its greater utility. A unit of electricity may be used
directly whereas a unit of fossil energy (oil or gas) requires further conversion before it is useful.
The portfolio is dominated by oil and gas, so electricity is converted to an amount of “fossil fuel
equivalent” energy to account for its greater utility. This is described in more detail in Section 7.1.
OIL
Where oil and gas are co-produced at an asset, emissions are allocated by the energy content
of the products, so that oil and gas co-products have the same intensity in kgCO2e/boe or
gCO2e/MJ. The oil produced is routed to the OIL supply chain.
When assessing Shell production, we assume that crude oil production goes first into our
equity refining capacity and then the gap between Shell’s production and the refinery intake is
filled with 3rd party crude oil with a country-average carbon footprint.
When assessing Shell processing, likewise, we assume that the crude intake of our refineries is
first supplied from Shell production and any gap is filled with 3rd party crude oil with a
country-average carbon footprint.
When assessing Shell sales, we assume that oil products are first supplied by the output of Shell
refineries in the region and any gap between Shell’s production and sales is filled with
products sourced from 3rd parties with a with a country-average carbon footprint.
5
Assurance statements for published Net Carbon Footprint values can be found here:
https://www.shell.com/sustainability/sustainability-reporting-and-performance-data/performance-
data/greenhouse-gas-emissions.html
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
The country-average carbon footprint of non-Shell oil production is taken from a journal
publication based on the OPGEE model [2].
Information about the carbon intensity of 3rd party activities is not generally available for
reasons of commercial confidentiality. Due to this lack of information, the CIs of 3rd party
refineries are assumed to be the same as that of the weighted average of Shell’s refineries in
the same region. For regions where there are no Shell refineries, a virtual refinery representing
a global Shell refinery average is assumed.
The refinery diet of 3rd party refineries is generally assumed to be the same as Shell refineries’
diet in each region.
GAS
Where oil and gas are co-produced at an asset, emissions are allocated by the energy content
of the products, so that oil and gas co-products have the same intensity in kgCO2e/boe or
gCO2e/MJ. The gas products are routed to the GAS/LNG/GTL/ELEC supply chains.
Shell produced natural gas may be routed to pipeline gas, LNG, GTL or electricity generation.
Upstream gas production is first routed to Shell LNG, GTL and power plants and any surplus
production is routed to pipeline gas or LNG, as appropriate to each country of production.
Gas produced by 3rd parties is also marketed by Shell; these volumes have not historically been
disclosed are now disclosed as a single figure for global 3rd party gas sales in Shell’s
Sustainability Report beginning in 2019. These volumes are included in the NCF.
LNG
When assessing Shell processing, we assume that all feed gas for our LNG facilities is taken at
the average intensity of Shell gas producing assets located in the same country and any gap
between Shell’s production intake is filled with 3rd party gas with a country-average carbon
footprint. Unlike oil, there is no equivalent data source that allows us to estimate the intensity of
3rd party gas production so, in the absence of country-specific data, non-Shell gas is assumed
to have the same intensity as Shell gas.
LNG sales are analysed as a single global region. The assumption is that non-Shell LNG is
produced at the same intensity as world-average Shell LNG.
GTL
When assessing Shell processing, we assume that all feed gas for our GTL facilities is taken at
the average intensity of Shell gas producing assets located in the same country and any gap
between Shell’s production intake is filled with 3rd party gas with a country-average carbon
footprint.
Only GTL energy products are included in the NCF; “chemical” GTL products such as lubricant
base oils and waxes are excluded.
BIOFUELS
Biofuel sales are disaggregated by product, feedstock, and region of production, assuming a
characteristic regional-average intensity taken from renewable fuels regulations in Europe and
the United States.
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
The BIOFUEL supply chain excludes land use change (LUC) emissions to avoid the possibility of
the NCF value changing as a result of legislated LUC intensities rather than by any action of
Shell.
ELECTRICITY
When assessing Shell power generation (gas-fired or co-fired), we assume that all feed gas for
our power plants is taken at the average intensity of Shell gas producing assets located in the
same country and any gap between Shell’s production intake is filled with 3rd party gas with a
country-average carbon footprint.
The Shell share of electricity sales, regardless of whether the electricity is generated by Shell or
a 3rd party are included in the NCF. Electricity volumes sold in power markets are included
except for pure trading activity.
In order to give electricity an appropriate weight in the calculation of the portfolio-average
carbon intensity, a conversion factor is used to convert the electricity to fossil energy
equivalents. The conversion factor is the average amount of total primary energy used per unit
of electricity generated in the world. The NCF model conservatively chooses to derive a time-
dependent ratio of power and fossil energy use from the IEA’s 2017 ETP “World – 2°C
scenario”, with power to primary energy ratios ranging from 0.40-0.50 on LHV basis from the
present to 2050.
ALL PATHWAYS
Shell assets report Scope 1 operational emissions (incl. fuel combustion, fugitives, flaring and
venting) and account for Scope 2 emissions from imported electricity. A true well-to-wheel
analysis would include Scope 3 emissions associated with producing fuel and transporting it to
the asset and also make allowance for the production and transport of fuels to the electricity
supplier, together with any distribution losses. Business reporting and planning data does not
include sufficient detail to allow these to be calculated. The omission is considered negligible
compared to the Scope 3 emissions associated with the end-use of fossil energy.
Shell business reporting data includes oil production volumes from refineries but not oil
properties. In this analysis, it is assumed that 1 bbl (a volume) is equivalent to 1 boe (a fixed
amount of energy). The density, higher and lower heating value, and carbon fraction of all
hydrocarbons is taken from Table 3-8 of the API Compendium [3].
Shell business reporting data includes gas production volumes but not gas composition. In this
analysis, it is assumed that all gas produced has the same density and heating value.
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
A description of the supply chain and the elements included in the lifecycle analysis
A description of the input data sources: Shell and non-Shell
A high-level description of the methodology
The implementation of the methodology – first, for a single illustrative WtW pathway (e.g. one
oil well, one refinery), then for realistic pathways (e.g. multiple oil wells per refinery).
Lastly, the report describes how the Net Carbon Footprint value is calculated from the individual
supply chain intensities, adjusted for CO2 sinks.
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
2. Oil Portfolio
2.1. The structure of the oil portfolio calculation
Figure 4 shows the steps in the analysis of the WtW GHG intensity for the oil supply chain.
3rd party refinery
intensity based on
Production regional average of
intensity calculated Shell refining
using Shell
Refinery intensity
3rd party oil Calculated based
production and products
calculated from on industry
emissions
Shell refinery intake standard emissions
Oil production Calculated Calculated and emissions factors
(Shell)
Refinery
Pipeline Transport Distribution End use
(Shell)
3rd party crude
oil Calculated
Production intensity
from published
values
End-use
Oil production
intensity
+ Pipeline
intensity
+ Transport
intensity
+ Refinery
intensity
+ Distribution
intensity
+ intensity
= Oil product
intensity
The NCF calculation works through a list of Shell oil production assets, described by:
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
volumes are used to calculate the refinery efficiency 6. Refinery diets for Shell Group refineries
were obtained from the Downstream business. Oil products for sale are from Shell’s Annual
Report and Form 20-F (minus the biofuel content of sales to avoid double counting with the
BIOFUEL sales portfolio).
Following production, oil can be transported via pipeline within the country or region.
Assumptions on pipeline distance can be found in APPENDIX 2. The emissions intensity of
pipeline transport was taken from the GREET model (2018), 0.96 gCO2e/MJ/1000km [4].
The quantity of oil shipped inter-regionally in mboe/d was taken from the IEA’s 2014 Oil
Medium-Term Market Report [5]. To find an estimate of the shipping distances for the transport of
oil between the regions, the most active shipping and receiving oil terminals were identified in
each region along with their closest port. The shortest distance between ports was calculated
using a shipping distance calculator [6]. More details about the oil transport sector can be found
in APPENDIX 2. The emissions intensity of oil shipping was taken from the GREET model (2018),
0.21 gCO2e/MJ/1000km [4].
For distribution of oil products from the refinery, a generic intensity is used – currently
0.63 gCO2e/MJ, taken from a European (JEC) study [7].
For Tank-to-Wheel (TtW) CI, the transport sector is assumed to be the end-user of oil. The
functional unit of the analysis is MJ of energy supplied, so the efficiency of the end-use is
immaterial. Most of the end-use emissions result from conversion of the carbon content of the fuel
to CO2 together with methane emissions and N2O emissions associated with combustion in
engines. The Tank-to-Wheel (TtW) CI is a weighted average value calculated from average
refinery processing outturn (gasoline, diesel, kerosene and fuel oil production) and API
Compendium emission factors for each fuel type - currently 72.76 gCO2e/MJ [3].
6
If refinery efficiency is not known, an average of 1.10 MJ/MJ is used (JEC = 1.08 for gasoline, 1.1 for
diesel. GREET = 1/88.6% for gasoline, 1/90.9% for diesel).
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
Step 1: the first step is to derive the country-average intensity of Shell oil production in each
source country as shown in Figure 5 7. We also need to know how much oil is demanded from
each country so that we can share out the Shell production between all consumers.
Calculate
OIL_Asset Country, total
list of Shell PR, CI production
Oil-producing Total oil production in-country
and
assets average
OIL_Shell
intensity
Shell oil
average
properties
Country, Calculate
REF_Asset
PR, CI, EF refinery Oil demand from
list of Shell
crude Shell refineries
refinery assets
demand in-country
in-country
Step 2: the next step is to evaluate the intensity of production at each refinery in turn. The
methodology followed is illustrated in Figure 6.
Oil products
oil CI Compute oil CI oil products CI oil products CI Compute OIL_WtW_DE
Compute Compute Compute WtW intensity
shipping (or WtT and OIL
intensity refining T&D
pipeline) WtW Downstream
of oil feed emissions emissions
emissions emissions results
For each Shell refinery, we take the amount of crude oil processed and use the refinery crude
diet to determine which countries supply the crude.
From Step 1, we know the total crude demand of all Shell refineries for crude from each source
country. For each source we supply as much Shell crude as possible, sharing out the Shell
production between all the consumers. Any shortfall is made up of non-Shell crude at a
characteristic intensity for each oil-producing country.
For each source, the shipping distance from the country of oil production to the refinery is
looked up.
The WtW pathway GHG intensity analysis is completed with transport & distribution and end-
use intensities. (These are the same for all destinations.)
A weighted average WtW intensity for the refinery is calculated over all sources of crude.
7
For definitions of the abbreviations used in this figure see Table 1.
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
oil CI T&D CI
For each sales region, the WtW intensity is calculated over the pathway shown in Figure 7.
For each sales region we obtain the average refinery crude diet from regional refinery crude
diet list.
We then calculate the weighted average WtT intensity of crude from each Shell refinery
supplying the sales region.
We know the amount of crude that can be supplied from Shell refineries. The shortfall is made
up from non-Shell crude supplied within the sales region.
Any shortfall is made up of non-Shell crude at the characteristic intensity for each country.
The non-Shell crude is refined at an intensity equal to the average intensity of Shell refineries in
the sales region, as calculated above.
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
For each crude source, the shipping distance from the country of oil production to the
representative sales location is looked up.
The WtW pathway GHG intensity analysis for non-Shell crude is completed with transport &
distribution and end-use intensities.
A weighted average WtW intensity for the sales region is calculated for Shell and non-Shell oil
products.
The above abbreviations can be used to derive the variables used in the model and in this report.
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
Thus, 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶(𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴),𝑡𝑡 would mean WtW emissions in gCO2e/MJ for oil produced by upstream assets
𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝
Au and refined by downstream refinery assets Ar at time t. 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 would imply emissions in
gCO2e /MJ related to production pr of oil that is used by refinery Ar at time t.
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶(𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴),𝑡𝑡 𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
= 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶(𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴),𝑡𝑡 + 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑣𝑣𝑒𝑒ℎ (Eq. 02)
Production
𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 is the upstream production related intensity in gCO2e/MJ of oil produced. It is calculated
as follows:
𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝
𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 ∗1000
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 = (Eq. 03)
𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 may be a mix of Shell and non-Shell oil production, depending on the refinery diet. A factor
of 1000 is used to convert kg to g.
Pipeline
𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 is the upstream intensity in gCO2e/MJ for transporting the oil from the oil producing asset to
the export terminal in that country through a pipeline. This is currently not estimated in the model
as the pipeline distances between the oil producing assets and the export terminals are not known
and therefore set as zero, sensitivity analysis shows that omitting this pipeline distance does not
have a significant effect on the NCF.
Export
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 is also dependent on the combination of oil production and refining locations. Oil may be
moved by pipeline or ship.
Refinery
𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 is the emissions intensity in gCO2e/MJ to process the oil in a refinery at a specific time t.
This is calculated as follows:
𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟
𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 ∗1000
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 = (Eq. 04)
𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜
𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟
where 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 is the emissions intensity of the refinery in kgCO2e/boe. LHVoil is the lower heating
value of the oil as MJ/boe. A factor of 1000 is used to convert kg to g.
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝,𝑠𝑠
The Shell component of upstream 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 refers to the emissions in gCO2e/MJ due to production
(pr) of oil by Shell assets (s), in country cu at time t. Allowing for pipeline emissions to the port of
𝑝𝑝
export 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 , these are calculated as follows:
𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝,𝑠𝑠 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝,𝑠𝑠 𝑠𝑠 𝑝𝑝
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 = ∑𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴(𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 + 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 ) ∗ 𝑊𝑊𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 (Eq. 05)
𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝,𝑠𝑠
where Au signifies upstream assets of Shell, s, in country cu. The component 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 is calculated
𝑠𝑠
according to Equation 03. 𝑊𝑊𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 is the fraction (expressed in %wt) of Shell’s oil in country cu that
belongs to asset Au.
𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝,𝑠𝑠̅
The non-Shell component of upstream emissions is represented 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 . The notation 𝑠𝑠̅ is used to
represent non-Shell assets. The values are in kgCO2e/boe and are converted internally in the
model to gCO2e/MJ using the formula given in Equation 03.
The combined upstream emissions from Shell and non-Shell oil from country cu are now
calculated internally in the model as follows:
𝑠𝑠 𝑠𝑠
𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝,𝑠𝑠 𝑃𝑃𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝,𝑠𝑠̅ 𝑃𝑃𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 = 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 ∗ 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 �1, � + 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 ∗ (1 − 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 �1, �) (Eq. 06)
𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡
𝑠𝑠
where 𝑃𝑃𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 is the oil produced by Shell (s) assets in country cu and 𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 is the oil that is used by
𝑠𝑠
all Shell refineries that originates from country cu. The units of P and C are boe/day. 𝑃𝑃𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 is
calculated internally in the model from the production of each oil producing asset. 𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 is
calculated internally in the model based on the total crude processed by each refinery and the
diet (breakdown of crude sources by country). We note the following for Equation 06:
Shell may be𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝producing oil in certain countries but none of the Shell refineries uses this oil. In
this case, 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 is not computed.
There may be countries where Shell produces more oil than required by all the refineries in
Shell’s portfolio. In this case the Shell refineries use all the oil produced by Shell’s asset and
any surplus is left unused.
𝑠𝑠
𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝,𝑠𝑠̅ 𝑃𝑃𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡
In this case 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 ∗ (1 − 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 �1, �) becomes zero.
𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡
There may be cases where some Shell refineries use oil from𝑃𝑃country cu but Shell does not 𝑠𝑠
𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝,𝑠𝑠 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡
produce any oil in that country. In this case, 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 ∗ 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 �1, � becomes zero.
𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡
There may be countries where Shell produces oil but the consumption of oil from this country
by all refineries is greater than the production by Shell. In this case, the priority is set so that
refineries first use the oil produced by Shell and the balance is provided by non-Shell assets.
𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 in this case is a weighted average.
𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝
The upstream intensity for each refinery asset, 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴, 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 is now calculated internally in the model
as follows:
𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 = ∑𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 ∗ 𝑊𝑊𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 (Eq. 07)
The units are gCO2e/MJ. 𝑊𝑊𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 is the fraction of oil from country cu that is used by refinery Ar,
also known as refinery diet. We note that the upstream intensity is now refinery specific thus we
𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝
use the notation 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 instead of 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 .
𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒
The intensity of exporting oil from all the countries cu to refinery Ar is 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 . This is calculated for
each refinery on a weighted basis as follows
𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝑠𝑠ℎ𝑝𝑝/𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 = ∑𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝐷𝐷𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 ∗ 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑠𝑠ℎ𝑝𝑝/𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 ∗ 𝑊𝑊𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 (Eq. 08)
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We again note that these emissions are refinery specific and thus we use the notation
𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 instead of 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 . shp denotes shipping mode of transport and pipe denotes pipeline mode
𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟
of transporting oil to refinery Ar from country cu. The refinery emissions 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 and distribution
emissions 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 in Equation 01 and end-use emissions 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑓𝑓𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣ℎ in Equation 02 remain unchanged.
The WtT emissions for refinery Ar are thus given as follows.
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 = 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 + 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 + 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 + 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 (Eq. 09)
The WtT emissions for the portfolio of Shell’s refinery assets are now simply the weighted average
of all the refineries. In other words,
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
∑𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊 ∗𝑃𝑃𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝,𝑡𝑡 = ∑𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 𝑃𝑃𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡
(Eq. 10)
To calculate the WtT CI of sales from non-Shell refineries, the regional refinery diet is calculated
first, assuming that it is the weighted average of Shell refineries in the sales region:
𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅
∑𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 𝑃𝑃𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 ∗𝑊𝑊𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴
𝑊𝑊𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅,𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 = 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 (Eq. 13)
∑𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 𝑃𝑃𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡
The non-Shell crude is refined at an intensity equal to the average intensity of Shell refineries in
the sales region:
𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟
𝑆𝑆ℎ𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 ∑𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 ∗𝑃𝑃𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶(𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅,𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴) 𝑡𝑡 = ∑𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝑃𝑃𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡
(Eq. 16)
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒
Where 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅,𝑡𝑡 is the weighted average shipping distance from crude producing country to the
representative country in the sale regions (Europe=Netherlands, Asia-Pacific=China,
America=United States, Africa=South Africa, Oceania = New Zealand).
For regions where there are no Shell refineries i.e. Oceania, a global refinery CI is used in
Eq.17.
The WtT emissions for Shell’s sales oil portfolio is now simply the weighted average of all the
regions:
𝑊𝑊𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡,𝑆𝑆ℎ𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝑆𝑆ℎ𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊,𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛−𝑆𝑆ℎ𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛−𝑆𝑆ℎ𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒
∑𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅,𝑡𝑡 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅,𝑡𝑡 ∗𝑃𝑃𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅,𝑡𝑡 +𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅,𝑡𝑡 ∗𝑃𝑃𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅,𝑡𝑡
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃,𝑡𝑡 = 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 (Eq. 18)
𝑃𝑃𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅,𝑡𝑡
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
The WtW CI of the oil portfolio processed calculation is the sum of 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃,𝑡𝑡 and CI of the end-use.
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
3. Gas Portfolio
3.1. The structure of the gas portfolio calculation
Like the OIL portfolio, natural gas is produced in many different countries. In maritime locations,
gas is often exported in the form of liquefied natural gas (See Chapter 4, LNG). In continental
locations, gas is usually transported by pipeline. The GAS portfolio consists of those assets
supplying end-users with pipeline gas.
Production
intensity calculated
using Shell
production and Calculated based
emissions on industry
standard emissions
Gas production Calculated factors
(Shell)
Pipeline End use
Production intensity
assumed to be the
same as Shell gas
Gas production
intensity
+ Pipeline
intensity
+ End – use
intensity
= Pipeline gas
intensity
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
Power plants are assumed to be the end-use of natural gas. The functional unit of the analysis is
MJ of energy supplied, so the efficiency of the end-use is immaterial. Most of the emissions from
power plants or boilers result from conversion of the carbon content of the fuel to CO2 together
with methane emissions (unburned fuel) and N2O emissions associated with combustion. The
carbon intensity of end-use is taken to be 56.55 gCO2e/MJ, the emissions factor of natural gas
combustion from a NETL report on U.S. natural gas power generation [28].
Shell also sells gas produced by 3rd parties, these volumes have not been historically disclosed but
will be disclosed as a single figure for global 3rd party gas sales in Shell’s Sustainability Report
beginning in 2019. These volumes are included in the NCF.
3.3.1. Gas Balance – allocation of gas production to pipeline, LNG, GTL and
power
Because natural gas from oil and gas assets can be sold as pipeline gas or used as feed gas for
LNG, GTL or power plants, a rule is applied to separate them.
If there are LNG, GTL or power plants in a given country, any upstream gas assets in that country
are assumed to provide feed gas to those assets. If there is insufficient gas to satisfy all in-country
plants, the available Shell gas is distributed pro-rata with the plants’ feed gas demand. If there is
excess production, then the surplus will be routed to pipeline gas or LNG, as appropriate to each
country. (There are no 3rd-party GTL plants receiving Shell gas production).
Four WtW pathways are needed to describe the transport of natural gas from production to end-
user:
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
Calculate
GAS_Asset Country, total
list of Shell PR, CI production
Gas-producing Total gas production
and in-country
assets average
intensity
Country, Calculate
LNG_Asset GAS_Shell
PR, CI, NGC gas demand
list of Shell Gas demand Shell gas
for Shell from Shell LNG
LNG plants average
LNG in-country
in-country properties
NG_for_LNG
gas production Country,
dedicated to PR
Gas demand
LNG from Shell GTL
in-country
Country, Calculate
GTL_Asset PR, CI, NGC gas demand
list of Shell for Shell Gas demand
GTL plants GTL from Shell
in-country power plants
in-country
Calculate
ELEC_Asset Country,
gas demand
list of Shell PR, CI, PG_EF,
for Shell
power plants PG_NG
powergen
in-country
A list of unique country names is built from the list of gas, LNG, GTL and power plants.
The total Shell gas production and intensity by country is calculated from the list of gas
producing assets.
The total gas demand from Shell LNG plants in each country is calculated from the production
and efficiency for all LNG plants. (It is not necessary to count the gas demand of integrated
plants because these assets are already bundled with their own gas supply.)
Total gas demand from Shell GTL plants in each country is calculated from production and
efficiency for all GTL plants.
Likewise, total gas demand from Shell power plants in each country is calculated from
production, efficiency, and natural gas fuel fraction for all power plants.
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
Country,
Does this Gas PR Does this
PR Surplus production
asset send to PIPE asset send
gas to gas to
pipeline or pipeline or
LNG/GTL LNG/GTL
TtW CI
For each asset, we see if the country is listed as an LNG exporter. If it is, then no gas goes to
pipeline.
If the country is not an LNG exporter, then we consult the Gas Balance to see if there is any
surplus gas after in-country Shell LNG, GTL and power plants have been supplied. If no gas
remains, then no gas goes to pipeline.
If there is surplus gas, then a fraction of each asset’s gas is reserved for Shell LNG and GTL
plants and the remainder is sent to pipeline.
For each gas source, the pipeline distance is looked up and the transport emissions calculated.
The WtW pathway is completed with end-use intensity.
The intensity used in the NCF calculation is then completed by analysing gas sales.
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
It is then possible to determine whether there is any surplus gas in each country, after all Shell LNG,
GTL and power plants have been supplied.
𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁_𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 = 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 − 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 − 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 − 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 (Eq. 24)
𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁_𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆
If 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 > 0 and country c is a pipeline country (see Section 3.3.1), then the WtW intensity of
the surplus pipeline gas is calculated following Section 3.4.3 below.
Gas Production
For Asset A in year t, the total CI in gCO2e/MJ for gas production is
𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 = 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 ∗ 1000/𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔 (Eq. 27)
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃
where 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 is the carbon intensity of gas production in kgCO2e/boe for Asset A at
year t. 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔 is the lower heating value of gas in MJ/boe.
Pipeline
The pipeline distance PD is listed for each gas production asset. Gas consumption and CI of
pipeline transfer are calculated using the equations below:
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃
𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 = 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 ∗ 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 (Eq. 28)
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 = 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 ∗ 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 (Eq. 29)
𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 is the gas consumption as t/t-km and 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 is the intensity in gCO2e/MJ.km. The
pipeline emissions factors were taken from the NETL Unit Process Library [8] and are assumed to
be constant over time and geography.
End-use
Combustion at a power plant is assumed to be the end-use of natural gas. The emissions intensity
is expressed as gCO2e/MJ of gas burned.
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
The WtW CI of the gas portfolio is the sum of 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃,𝑡𝑡 and the CI of the end-use.
UNRESTRICTED – SR.19.00134 32
The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
4. LNG Portfolio
4.1. The structure of the LNG portfolio calculation
Figure 11 shows an overview of the LNG supply chain.
3rd party LNG
intensity based on
Production global average of
intensity calculated Shell LNG
using Shell
3rd party Calculated based
production and
LNG
emissions on industry
standard emissions
Gas
production Calculated Calculated Calculated Calculated factors
(Shell)
LNG
Pipeline Shipping Regas Pipeline End-use
Liquefaction
3rd party
gas Calculated
Production intensity
assumed to be the
same as Shell gas
LNG
Gas production Pipeline Shipping Regas Pipeline End-use LN G
intensity + intensity + liquefaction + intensity + intensity + intensity + intensity = intensity
intensity
The NCF calculation works through a list of Shell LNG production assets, described by:
LNG plant intensity (in kgCO2e/boe) and gas consumption (in MJNG/MJLNG)
The supply gas pipeline distance (in km)
It is also necessary to know the intensity of Shell and non-Shell gas supplied to the LNG plants:
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
When assessing Shell LNG liquefaction, we assume that all feed gas is taken at the average
intensity of Shell gas producing assets located in the same country and any gap between Shell’s
production and the total feed gas requirement is filled with 3rd party gas with a country-average
carbon intensity. There is no readily available source for the carbon intensity of 3rd party gas
production, so non-Shell gas is assumed to have the same intensity as Shell gas. Where there are
no Shell assets in-country, a world average intensity is used.
For LNG shipping, the shipping distance (SD) may be provided by Shell assets. For assets where
this information is not available, an estimate is made based on an analysis of LNG trade volumes
between countries by the International Gas Union [9] as described in Appendix 4 - a weighted
sum of the shipping distance from the Shell LNG plant to each trade region and the
corresponding fraction of production sent to each trade region. The emission factor for shipping
is taken to be an average based on the fuel consumption and capacity of 24 Shell vessels,
combined with IMO emissions factors for fuel combustion [10]. An estimate of methane slip is
included in the GHG emissions, taken from a more recent SINTEF study in 2017 [11].
Emissions from regasification facilities are estimated based on a disclosure by Tokyo gas [12].
Gas loss as fuel is calculated to be 0.09% but including emissions from electricity consumption
raises the intensity of regasification to 0.0173 tCO2e/tLNG [13]. For gas pipelines from
regasification terminals to end-user power plants, a proxy distance of 150 km was assumed.
As for pipeline gas, power plants are assumed to be the end-use of natural gas. The functional
unit of the analysis is MJ of energy delivered, so the efficiency of the end-use is immaterial. Most
of the emissions from power plants or boilers result from conversion of the carbon content of the
fuel to CO2 together with methane emissions (unburned fuel) and N2O emissions associated with
combustion. The carbon intensity of end-use is taken to be taken to be 56.55 gCO2e/MJ, the
emissions factor of natural gas combustion from a NETL report on U.S. natural gas power
generation [28].
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
regas CI
P1 distance Source country
P2 distance TtW CI
LNG WtW intensity
LNG_Asset Distance to LNG Shipping CI
GAS_Shell
dedicated gas CI list of Shell destination
calculated
LNG plants
Shell gas CI
by country
LNG LNG_WtW_DE
LNG_Shipping LNG
GAS_Country calculator
Shipping Downstream
default worksheet
distance LNG_Ships results
non-Shell gas CI
NG_for_LNG Shipping
by country
gas production intensity
dedicated to
LNG
For each Shell LNG plant, we determine the amount of feed gas needed for LNG production
and the plant’s gas consumption per unit produced.
First, we consider dedicated feed gas assets. There may be more than one feed source. The
total production and average intensity are calculated. Total dedicated production may not be
enough to satisfy all the gas processed by the LNG plant.
If there is a shortfall in feed gas, we next look to country-average Shell gas production to fill
the gap. This intensity was calculated on a country-average basis in the Gas Balance. Total
Shell production may not be enough to satisfy all the gas processed by the LNG plant.
If there is still a shortfall in feed gas, we next look to country-average non-Shell gas production
to fill the gap.
A composite gas production intensity is calculated as a weighted average of all three gas
sources.
The intensity of transporting gas to the plant is calculated from the pipeline distance.
Shipping distances are looked up for the region or country where the LNG plant is located.
The WtW pathway is completed with regas, pipeline distribution and end-use intensities.
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
Gas Production
𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁
The country-average Shell gas production 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶,𝑡𝑡 is taken from the Gas Balance calculation
(Section 3.4.2).
Pipeline to LNG
The pipeline distance, PD, for each LNG asset (LA) is listed for each Shell LNG plant. Using the
appropriate pipeline distance, we can get the total CI up to the point at which gas is delivered to
the LNG plant via the pipeline:
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃
𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿,𝑡𝑡 = 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 ∗ 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 (Eq. 35)
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿,𝑡𝑡 = 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 ∗ 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 (Eq. 36)
𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 is the gas consumption as t/t-km and 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 is the intensity in gCO2e/MJ/km. The
pipeline emissions factors were taken from the NETL Unit Process Library [8] and are assumed to
be constant over time and geography.
LNG Production
For Asset LA in year t, the CI in gCO2e/MJ for LNG production is
𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿,𝑡𝑡 = 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿,𝑡𝑡 ∗ 1000/𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔 (Eq. 37)
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 is the gas loss as fuel in LNG plant as MJNG/MJLNG and is listed for each Shell LNG asset.
Shipping
The shipping distance (SD) is based on a weighted sum of the shipping distance from the Shell
LNG plant to each trade region and the corresponding fraction of production sent to each trade
region.
𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 = 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝐴𝐴∈𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 = ∑𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝑖𝑖 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑖𝑖 ∗ (𝑆𝑆ℎ𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅)𝑖𝑖 (Eq. 38)
Applying the GC and CI for shipping laden and shipping ballast gives:
𝑆𝑆ℎ𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑆𝑆ℎ𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙 𝑆𝑆ℎ𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏
𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 = 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 + 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 (Eq. 39)
𝑆𝑆ℎ𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑆𝑆ℎ𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙 𝑆𝑆ℎ𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 = 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 + 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 (Eq. 40)
Re-gasification
The constants 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 and 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 allow for fuel consumption and emissions of
re-gasification of LNG.
End-use
Combustion at a power plant is assumed to be the end-use of LNG. The emissions intensity is
expressed as gCO2e/MJ of gas burned.
The final energy, used to calculate the weighting for the LNG supply chain in the NCF portfolio
average, is the amount of gas delivered to the end-user – smaller than the amount of LNG
produced by Shell as a result of gas used as fuel in shipping and pipeline transmission.
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
Where i= 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔_𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓_𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿. The WtT CI calculation follows Eq. 32-33 where 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑡𝑡𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 is
𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛−𝑆𝑆ℎ𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁
replaced by 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿,𝑡𝑡 .
The portfolio WtT CI is:
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊,𝑖𝑖 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊 ∑𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿,𝑡𝑡 ∗𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿,𝑡𝑡
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃,𝑡𝑡 = 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿
∑𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿,𝑡𝑡
(Eq. 48)
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
5. GTL Portfolio
Shell gas-to-liquids (GTL) technology converts natural gas to liquid fuels, chemicals and waxes.
GTL is an alternative application for natural gas and Shell GTL plants exist alongside LNG plants
in Qatar and Malaysia.
End-use
Gas production
intensity
+ Pipeline
intensity
+ GTL production
intensity
+ Shipping
intensity
+ Distribution
intensity
+ intensity
= GTL
Intensity
The NCF calculation works through a list of Shell GTL production assets, described by:
GTL plant intensity (in kgCO2e/boe) and gas consumption (in MJNG/MJLNG)
The supply gas pipeline distance (in km)
It is also necessary to know the intensity of Shell and non-Shell gas supplied to the GTL plants:
Shipping intensity
Distribution to point-of-sale
End-use (tank-to-wheel) intensity.
5.2. Input data for GTL portfolio
CI and production rate data for Shell’s two GTL assets are taken from Shell business reporting
data. Not all GTL products are energy products. To align with the scope of NCF, approximately
55% of Pearl GTL products [14] and 20% of SMDS GTL products [15] are included in the NCF
calculation.
The CI of upstream gas production for SMDS is a country average over the lifetime of the GTL
plant. Gas consumption as MJNG/MJGTL is estimated based on the reported plant thermal
efficiency. A pipeline distance of 200 km was agreed with the project team.
Pearl GTL is an integrated gas asset; emissions of upstream gas production and pipeline transport
are included in the asset’s CI, and therefore their intensity is set to be zero to avoid double
counting.
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
Pipeline transport of gas to the GTL plant uses the same emissions intensity and loss factors
defined in Section 3.2.
The shipping distance for Pearl is set as a constant representing that from Qatar to Rotterdam; for
Bintulu, from Bintulu to Osaka, Japan. A shipping emissions factor is derived from the GREET
2018 model for a GTL ocean tanker, 0.23 gCO2e/MJ/1000km [4].
The CI of GTL distribution from import terminal to point of sale is a constant 0.63 gCO2e/MJ,
derived from a JEC study [7].
The end-use of GTL is dependent on the portfolio of the GTL facility, however for reasons of
simplicity, the end-use of GTL in this calculation model is assumed to be as a fuel for transport.
GTL fuels have a lower carbon fraction than conventional oil-derived fuels and its combustion
emissions factor is extracted from the same JEC study [7], 71.98 gCO2e/MJ.
non-Shell gas CI
GAS_Shell GTL_Asset GTL
calculated list of Shell calculator
Shell gas CI GTL plants worksheet
by country
GAS_Country
default
non-Shell gas CI
by country
For each Shell GTL plant, we determine the amount of gas feed needed based on the plants
production and gas consumption.
First, we look to country-average Shell gas production to supply the plant. The intensity is taken
from the Gas Balance. Total Shell production may not be enough to satisfy all the gas
processed by the GTL plant.
If there is a shortfall in feed gas, we next look to country-average non-Shell gas production to
fill the gap.
A composite gas production intensity is calculated as a weighted average of both gas sources.
The intensity of transporting gas to the plant is calculated from the pipeline distance listed for
each GTL plant.
The intensity of shipping GTL from the plant is calculated from the shipping distance listed for
each GTL plant.
The WtW pathway is completed with distribution and end-use intensities.
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
These core notations are used to derive variables used in the model and the report. For example,
𝐺𝐺𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 would imply emissions for Asset A at time t (year) due to the process of converting gas to
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
liquid. Similarly, 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 means Well to Wheel emissions for Asset A at time t, 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣ℎ indicates the
emissions due to combustion of the GTL product in a car. We note that all the emissions are
expressed in gCO2e/MJ.
5.4.2. CI calculation
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 𝑠𝑠ℎ𝑝𝑝
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 = [𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 ∗ �1 + 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 � + 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 ] ∗ (1 + 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 ) + 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 + 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴 + 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
(Eq. 50)
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊 𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 = 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 + 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣ℎ (Eq. 51)
Because gas is consumed in pipeline and GTL plant, the CI is calculated cumulatively to capture
the loss in the denominator of the CI.
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The Net Carbon Footprint Model: Methodology
Gas Production
𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁
The country-average Shell gas production 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶,𝑡𝑡 is taken from the Gas Balance calculation
(Section 3.4.2).
Pipeline to GTL
The pipeline distance, PD, is listed for each GTL asset. Using the appropriate pipeline distance,
we can determine the total CI up to the point at which gas is delivered to the GTL plant via the
pipeline:
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃
𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺,𝑡𝑡 = 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 ∗ 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 (Eq. 52)
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺,𝑡𝑡 = 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 ∗ 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 (Eq. 53)
𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 is the gas consumption as t/t-km. 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 is the intensity in gCO2e/MJ.
GTL Production
For Asset GTL in year t, the CI in gCO2e/MJ for GTL production is
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺,𝑡𝑡 = 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺,𝑡𝑡 *∗ 1000/𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔 (Eq. 54)
𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 is the gas loss as fuel in GTL plant as MJNG/MJGTL.
Shipping
The shipping distance (SD) is the shipping distance from GTL asset to destination country.
𝑠𝑠ℎ𝑝𝑝 𝑠𝑠ℎ𝑝𝑝
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴 = 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 ∗ 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 (Eq. 55)
𝑠𝑠ℎ𝑝𝑝
Where 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 is the GTL tanker emission factor.
𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺
Then 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶(𝐴𝐴,𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺),𝑡𝑡 replaces 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 in Eq. 50 for the WtT CI calculation.
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6. Biofuels
6.1. The structure of the Biofuels portfolio calculation
Biofuel production may choose to include or exclude land use change (LUC) emissions. The
BIOFUEL supply chain excludes them because their inclusion might lead to changes in the NCF
value as a result of legislated LUC intensities rather than by any action of Shell.
Figure 15 shows an overview of the Biofuel supply chain.
Production
intensity calculated
using Shell
production and By convention CO2
Biofuel
Transport Shipping Distribution End-use Biofuel
production + intensity + intensity + intensity + intensity = intensity
intensity
The NCF calculation works through a list of Shell biofuel production assets, described by:
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[29] and those of Eastern pathways are from various publications (cassava ethanol [20],
molasses ethanol [21], coconut biodiesel [22] and palm oil biodiesel [23]). LUC emissions factors
for U.S. biofuels are derived from EPA RFS2 whilst those for EU cases are taken from the EU iLUC
Directive [24].
For simplicity of calculation, biofuels produced by a single asset are either consumed domestically
or exported (assets may be split if they supply multiple destinations). For example, for Raízen,
about 56% of biofuels are used domestically and 44% are exported to the U.S. based on
information in the 2014/2015 Raízen Sustainability Report [25]. U.S. biofuels and EU biofuels
are assumed to be consumed domestically. For export, biofuels are collected from plants by
various methods e.g. truck, rail, barge and pipeline and transported to bulk terminals, and then
shipped to the destination country via ocean tankers. A shipping matrix has been developed with
distances from an online sea port calculation model [6] and emissions factors from the GREET
model [4]. For domestic use, biofuels are also transported to bulk terminals and then distributed
via truck.
For Tank-to-Wheel (TtW) CI, the transport sector is assumed to be the end-use of biofuels. The
functional unit of the analysis is MJ of energy supplied, so the efficiency of the end-use is
immaterial. Most of the end-use emissions result from conversion of the carbon content of the fuel
to CO2 together with methane emissions and N2O emissions associated with combustion in
engines. For biofuels, the carbon content of the fuel is not of fossil origin, so a “renewable
combustion credit” is applied, reducing the emissions intensity to the methane and N2O elements
alone. The intensity of distribution and end-use of biofuels are represented to be 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 and 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣ℎ
which are constants from the JEC study [7]: 0.63 and 0.87 gCO2e/MJ respectively.
For each Shell asset, the production and intensity of production is listed.
Transport distances within a region, or shipping distances between regions are calculated.
The WtW pathway is completed with distribution and end-use intensities.
T&D CI TtW CI
Country of origin, Shipping
Destination region Transport
distance
distance
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For each product, feedstock, and region of production, publicly-available production intensity
values are looked up.
Transport distances within a region, or shipping distances between regions are calculated.
The WtW pathway is completed with distribution and end-use intensities.
Lastly, the WtW emissions of Shell’s own processing are added.
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Intensity of distribution and end-use of biofuels are represented as 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 and 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣ℎ . For the
biofuels portfolio, the CI is then calculated by:
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
∑𝐴𝐴 𝑃𝑃𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 ∗𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃,𝑡𝑡 = ∑𝐴𝐴 𝑃𝑃𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡
(Eq. 61)
where 𝑃𝑃𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 is the production rate of each biofuel production or sales asset.
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Renewable
generation
Transmission End-use
Thermal
Fuel production
generation
Fuel production
intensity
+ Generation
intensity
+ Transmission
intensity
= Electricity
intensity
Figure 17 -SOLAR and WIND form the Renewable part of the ELECTRICITY supply chain
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The NCF calculation works through a list of Shell SOLAR/WIND production assets, described by:
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8. ELECTRICITY
8.1. Structure of the ELEC portfolio calculation
Figure 18 shows how thermal generation fits into the electricity supply chain.
Illustrative supply chain for electricity generation, in practice published intensities for grid electricity are used.
Renewable
generation
Transmission End-use
Thermal
Fuel production
generation
Fuel production
intensity
+ Generation
intensity
+ Transmission
intensity
= Electricity
intensity
Figure 18 – Shell power plants make up the Thermal generation part of the ELECTRICITY supply chain
The NCF calculation works through a list of Shell ELEC production assets, described by:
Power generation intensity in gCO2e/kWh (including the fuel supply for integrated or non-gas
plants).
Total power generated in GWh/year.
Power generation efficiency, used to calculate the fuel demand.
Gas fuel fraction (100% for gas-fired, less than 100% for gas co-firing, or zero for non-gas
plants)
The life cycle is completed by:
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ELEC_WtW_DE
ELEC_Asset
GAS_Shell Electricity
list of Shell
calculated Downstream
power plants
Shell gas CI results
by country
GAS_Country
default
non-Shell gas CI
by country
For each Shell power plant, we determine the amount of gas feed needed from its efficiency
and the fraction of fuel input made up by natural gas.
(If the power plant is an integrated gas power plant, or a power plant that does not consume
natural gas, the intensity of the gas supply is not used because these emissions are already
included in the power plant intensity.)
First, we look to country-average Shell gas production to supply the plant. The intensity is taken
from the Gas Balance. Total Shell in-country production may not be enough to satisfy all the
gas processed by the power plant.
If there is a shortfall in feed gas, we next look to country-average non-Shell gas production to
fill the gap.
A composite gas production intensity is calculated as a weighted average of both gas sources.
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These core notations are used to derive variables used in the model and the report. For example,
𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 would imply emissions for Asset A at time t (year) due to the process of converting fuel to
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
electricity. Similarly, 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 means Well to Wheel emissions for Asset A at time t. We note that all
the emissions are expressed in gCO2e/MJ.
8.4.2. CI calculation
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 = [𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 ∗ �1 + 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 � + 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 ] ∗ 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 /𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 + 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 (Eq. 62)
For SOLAR/WIND, there is no fuel supply. For integrated power plants, the emissions of fuel
𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸
supply are already included in 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 . In these cases, Equation 62 simplifies to:
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 = 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 (Eq. 63)
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Gas Production
𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁
The country-average Shell gas production 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶,𝑡𝑡 is taken from the Gas Balance calculation
(Section 3.4.2).
Power generation
The life cycle is completed with the powerplant emissions. For Asset A in year t:
𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 (Eq. 66)
Then we check the Gas Balance to see if there is any surplus gas after in-country LNG and GTL
plants have been supplied:
𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁_𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴,𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸),𝑡𝑡 = 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 − (𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 − ∑𝐴𝐴 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 + 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 + 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 )
(Eq. 68)
𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿
Where 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 , 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑐𝑐,𝑡𝑡 , 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 are described and calculated in Section 3.4.2.
𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁_𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁
If surplus gas is not enough for the power plant (𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴,𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺),𝑡𝑡 < 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺,𝑡𝑡 ), 3rd party gas from is
sourced to fill the gap.
𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁_𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁_𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆
𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 ∑𝐴𝐴 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴∈𝐶𝐶,𝑡𝑡 ∗𝑃𝑃𝑟𝑟(𝐴𝐴,𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸),𝑡𝑡 +𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶,𝑡𝑡 ∗(𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸,𝑡𝑡 −𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴,𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸),𝑡𝑡 )
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶(𝐴𝐴,𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸),𝑡𝑡 = 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 (Eq. 69)
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸,𝑡𝑡
𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺
Then 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶(𝐴𝐴,𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸),𝑡𝑡 replaces 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴,𝑡𝑡 in Eq. 62 for WtT CI calculation.
The portfolio WtW CI at time t is:
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
∑𝐴𝐴 𝑃𝑃𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸,𝑡𝑡 ∗𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸,𝑡𝑡
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃,𝑡𝑡 = ∑𝐴𝐴 𝑃𝑃𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸,𝑡𝑡
(Eq. 70)
The contribution of electricity sales to the NCF is then the sum of Shell electricity production and
sales of purchased electricity.
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The above abbreviations can be used to describe the variables used in the model and in this
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
report. Thus, 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑆𝑆,𝑡𝑡 would mean WtW emissions in gCO2e/MJ for the supply chain S at time t.
9.2.2. CI calculation
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃,𝑡𝑡 is the portfolio intensity in gCO2e/MJ. It is calculated as follows:
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
∑𝑆𝑆 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑆𝑆,𝑡𝑡
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊 ×𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝑆𝑆
𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃,𝑡𝑡 = ∑𝑆𝑆 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝑆𝑆
(Eq. 72)
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Table 8 - Acronyms, abbreviations and variables used for CO2 Sinks calculations
The above abbreviations can be used to describe the variables used in the model and in this
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
report. Thus, 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃,𝑡𝑡 would mean WtW emissions in gCO2e/MJ for the Portfolio at time t.
10.2.2. CI calculation
Total CO2e emissions are calculated from the average portfolio intensity. These are then reduced
by the total CO2 absorbed in the sinks and an adjusted intensity calculated.
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶′𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃,𝑡𝑡 is the portfolio intensity in gCO2e/MJ, adjusted for CO2 sinks. It is calculated as follows:
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃∗𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 −𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶2
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶′𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃,𝑡𝑡 = (Eq. 73)
𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃
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GLOSSARY
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Generic assumptions
8
Capacity weighted average of oil pipelines
9
Average of main pipelines, small pipelines excluded (<10-15km)
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appropriate port in that country was then found by proximity to the oil terminals. Below is a list of
the oil terminals/country used for each region, with the port used to determine shipping distances
in brackets.
Receiving terminals:
North America - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, USA (New Orleans port)
Latin America – Chile (Gregorio)
Africa – South Africa (Durban)
EU - Wesseling, Germany (Wilhelmshaven)
MENA (Qatar) - Israel (Haifa)
Japan & Oceanian (OECD Asia) – Japan (Chiba)
China - CRC Oil Storage Depot, China (Hong Kong)
Asia (India for import) - Butcher Island, India (Mumbai)
Shipping terminals:
Shipping distances between the regions were calculated using a shipping distance calculator [6].
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This distance is used only for countries which export gas by pipeline (not LNG).
Netherlands
EIA data shows the Netherlands producing 1601 bcf in 2017, consuming 1532 bcf, importing
1801 bcf and exporting 1810 bcf (https://www.eia.gov/international/overview/country/NLD).
2017 is the latest year for which data are available.
Imports and exports each account for roughly 50% of total gas movements.
Domestic pipeline can be represented by Groningen-Rotterdam distance of 250km.
CBS paper https://www.cbs.nl/-/media/_pdf/2019/27/international-gas-trade-in-the-
netherlands.pdf shows exports to be divided: Germany 50%, Belgium 40%, UK 10%. Represent
NL-Germany by Groningen-Essen distance of 275km
NL-Belgium by Groningen-Brussels distance of 400km
NL-UK distance by the length of the BBL and Zeebrugge-Bacton interconnectors, 235km
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United States
A distance of 971 km was assumed by NETL in their 2014 study of the LCA of U.S. powergen
[28].
Canada
A distance of 2233 km is used in the Canadian GHGenius model [29].
Norway
Averaging export pipeline lengths in Norway (and assuming that domestic consumption is
negligible by comparison):
Europipe I, 420 km, 18 bsm3/y capacity
Europipe II, 643 km, 24 bsm3/y
Norpipe, 354 km, 16 bsm3/y
Langeled, 1166 km, 25 bsm3/y
Zeepipe, 814 km, 15 bsm3/y
Franpipe, 840 km, 20 bsm3/y
Weighted average length = 736km
United Kingdom
EIA data show the UK to be a net importer of natural gas, so UK gas producing assets are
assumed to route gas 100% to the UK.
https://www.eia.gov/international/data/country/GBR/natural-gas
The distance from the gas fields in the southern North Sea to shore is assumed to be half the
length of the NL-UK distance by the length of the BBL and Zeebrugge-Bacton interconnectors,
50%*235km = 118 km.
Feeder lines from Bacton and Easington terminals to the National Gas Transmission System
average 190km. Add to this the length of the NTS spine (Canvey Island-Leeds) 320km.
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Transmission_System)
Total UK pipeline length is 118 + 190 + 320 = 628km
Bolivia
EIA data shows Bolivia producing 660 bcf in 2017, consuming 112 bcf, importing 0 bcf and
exporting 546 bcf (https://www.eia.gov/international/overview/country/BOL). Exports account
for 80% of Bolivia’s gas
Domestic pipeline can be represented by Yabog pipeline distance of 441km.
International pipeline can be represented by GASBOL pipeline distance of 2046km
Average pipeline distance is then 20%*441 + 80%+2046 = 1725km.
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Germany
In Germany, Shell produces gas in Niedersachsen (just south of Bremen) and, as Germany is a
net gas importer, this gas can be put onto the local grid without the need to transport it large
distances
For our purposes, pipeline transport is assumed to be the distance from Nienburg (the centre of
gravity of Shell projects) to Bremen, 100km. (https://reports.shell.com/investors-
handbook/2018/servicepages/worldmap.php.)
Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Mongolia
These countries resemble Canada, in that gas is transported across continental distances. An
estimated distance of 2500km has been used (similar to Canada’s 2233km).
Others
A proxy value of1200km is assumed for all other countries, used when more accurate data are
not available. It can be seen that, by comparison with most of the countries above, it is a
conservative choice.
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Receiving terminals:
Algeria – Arzew
Angola – Cabinda
Australia – Darwin
Brunei Darussalam – Seria
Cameroon – Douala (FLNG)
Egypt – Alexandria
Equatorial Guinea – Punta Europa Terminal
Indonesia – Samarinda
Malaysia – Sibu
Nigeria – Bonny
Norway – Hammerfest
Oman – Muscat
Papua New Guinea – Port Moresby
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Peru – Pisco
Qatar – Doha
Russian Federation – Vladivostok
Trinidad and Tobago – Point Fortin
United Arab Emirates – Das Island
United States – Sabine
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Cautionary note
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are
separate legal entities. In this report “Shell”, “Shell Group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are
sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its
subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to Royal
Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These terms are
also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity or entities.
‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this report refer to entities
over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and
unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as “joint
ventures” and “joint operations”, respectively. Entities over which Shell has significant influence
but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is
used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in an
entity or unincorporated joint arrangement, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
Also, in this report we may refer to Shell’s “Net Carbon Footprint”, which includes Shell’s carbon
emissions from the production of our energy products, our suppliers’ carbon emissions in
supplying energy for that production and our customers’ carbon emissions associated with their
use of the energy products we sell. Shell only controls its own emissions. But, to support society in
achieving the Paris Agreement goals, we aim to help such suppliers and consumers to likewise
lower their emissions. The use of the term Shell’s “Net Carbon Footprint” is for convenience only
and not intended to suggest these emissions are those of Shell or its subsidiaries.
This report contains forward-looking statements (within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities
Litigation Reform Act of 1995) concerning the financial condition, results of operations and
businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may
be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of
future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and
involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance
or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-
looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of
Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs,
estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified
by their use of terms and phrases such as “aim”, “ambition”, ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’,
‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’,
‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases.
There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and
could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking
statements included in this report, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil
and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling
and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition;
(g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable
potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such
transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to
international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory
measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various
countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of
the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of
projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions.
No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend
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payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this report are expressly qualified in their
entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not
place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future
results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2019
(available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov). These risk factors also expressly qualify
all forward-looking statements contained in this [report] and should be considered by the reader.
Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this report, 24th November 2020.
Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly
update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or
other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied
or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this report.
We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this report that the United States Securities
and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC.
U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575,
available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.
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Bibliographic information
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