Problem statement:

Cranes are commonly used in construction. Cranes used to lift and lower materials and also
move materials horizontally. The moment created in cranes due to a specific load is always
varying due to the small deviations in several parameters used. Thus, stress induced in the
crane is difficult to be determined due to the nature of deviation in all the parameters used.
As solution to that, statistical normal and log normal distribution analysis are performed to
determine the probability failure of the induced stress results in crane. These distributions are
used to describe the probability function of a value in a variable. Statistical analysis of the
distribution on particular parameter ensures the obtained results and conclusion are more
accurate.
Mean is calculated to determine the central tendency of the distribution whereas standard
deviation is calculated to measure the variability of the data.

Objectives:
1. Prove the nature of distributions for each parameter by using goodness of fit test
2. Determine the probability of failure for the generated random numbers

Methodology:
1. Random number generation
µ = normal mean, σ = normal standard deviation
µx = log normal mean, σx = log normal standard deviation

(a) For parameters with normal distribution, 100 random numbers are generated by using
data analysis tool in Microsoft Excel with given µ and σ.

(b) For parameters with log normal distribution, µ and σ are calculated from the given µx
and σx , 100 random numbers are then generated by using data analysis tool in
Microsoft Excel with the normalised mean and standard deviation.

In order to produce a distribution with desired mean µx and variance σx 2, equations below
are used:

(√ )
2
µx
µ=ln 2 2
µx+ σ x

( )
σ 2=ln 1+
µ2x
σx
2
2. Histogram Generation

(a) For parameters with normal distribution, histogram is generated by using data analysis
tool in Microsoft Excel.

(b) For parameters with log normal distribution, two histograms are generated by using
the logarithm values and the actual values. The logarithm values are normally
distributed whereas the actual values are log normally distributed.

3. Probability Distribution

(a) For histograms of normally distributed data, scaled probability distribution and
theoretical normal curve are plotted to visualize the obtained results.

(b) For histograms of log normally distributed data, scaled probability distribution and
theoretical log normal curve are plotted to visualize the obtained results.

 Theoretical normal curve is calculated by using function NORMSDIST in Microsoft

Excel.

 Theoretical log normal curve is calculated by using function LOGNORM.DIST in

Microsoft Excel.

 Scaled normal curve and log normal curve are obtained by multiplying the number of
data,
n = 100 with the calculated probability.

 Mean of parameters are calculated by using function AVERAGE in Microsoft Excel.

 Standard Deviation of parameters are calculated by using function STDEV.S in

Microsoft Excel.
Results:

Mean , x=
∑ fx
∑f

√ ( )
2

Standard deviation , σ=
∑ fx 2 − ∑ fx
∑f ∑f

As n=100,
- Scaled Probability Distribution: Probability Distribution of the particular parameter
for n = 100.
- Scaled Normal Curve: Theoretical Probability in Normal when n = 100.
- Scaled Log Normal Curve: Theoretical Probability in Log Normal when n = 100.

Parameter Description Mean Standard Distribution

Deviation Type
L Location of the load (distance from 50 ft 6 ft normal
the fixed end)
W Uniform Load 60 lb/ft 7 lb/ft normal
I Moment of inertia of steel section 1100 in4 80 in4 lognormal
Y Yield strength 50 ksi 4 ksi lognormal
Table 1.0 Given probabilistic characteristic
Task 1 and Task 2

Parameter L
Random Number Generated Given Probabilistic Characteristic
Mean 50.10962538 50
Standard Deviation 6.098841733 6
Table 1.1 Mean and standard deviation for parameter L
Bin Observed Frequency
≤ 35 0
35-40 4
40-45 18
45-50 28
50-55 33
55-60 9
60-65 7
65-70 1
70-75 0
75 ≤ 0
Table 1.2 Bin and observed frequency of parameter L
X Z-score Cumulative probability
35 -2.47745819 0.006616096
40 -1.65763039 0.048696046
45 -0.83780259 0.201070793
50 -0.01797479 0.492829484
55 0.801853013 0.788681006
60 1.621680813 0.947564145
65 2.441508613 0.99268698
70 3.261336413 0.999445558
75 4.081164213 0.999977595
Table 1.3 Calculated probability of parameter L
Range Theoretical Class probability, P(Z) Expected value, Ei =nP(Z)
-∞ < X ≤ 35 0.006616096 0.661609561*
35 < X ≤ 40 0.042079951 4.207995065*
40 < X ≤ 45 0.152374747 15.23747467*
45 < X ≤ 50 0.291758691 29.17586908
50 < X ≤ 55 0.295851522 29.5851522
55 < X ≤ 60 0.15888314 15.88831397
60 < X ≤ 65 0.045122835 4.512283483*
65 < X ≤ 70 0.006758578 0.675857774*
70 < X ≤ 75 0.000532037 0.053203664*
75 < X < ∞ 2.24053E-05 0.002240534*
Value*- expected value need to combine to other categories because Ei <5 .
Table 1.4 Theoretical class probability of parameter L
 Range Oi Ei ( Oi−E i ) 2
( Oi−E i ) ( Oi−Ei )
2

Ei
P (−∞≤ x ≤ 45 ) 22 20.10707929 1.892921 3.583148814 0.178203
P ( 45< x ≤50 ) 28 29.17586908 -1.17587 1.382668093 0.047391
P ( 50< x ≤ 55 ) 33 29.5851522 3.414848 11.6611855 0.394157
P ( 55< x ≤ 60 ) 9 15.88831397 -6.88831 47.44886935 2.986401
P ( 60< x< ∞ ) 8 5.298985534 2.701014 7.295479146 1.376769
2
( O i−E i ) 4.98
∑ E =¿
i
292

Table 1.5 Results of chi-square test for parameter L

Histogram L
12 40

Length 35
10
30
Scaled Probability DIstribution
8
Scaled Normal Curve 25
Frequency

6 20

15
4
10
2
5

0 0
25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75
Bin

Graph 1.0 Histogram L

Hypothesis
H 0 : Data follow the normal distribution

H 1 : Data do not follow the normal distribution

Test Statistic
2
Chi−squared , X test =4.98292
Significance level , α =0.05 , k=5 , p=0 ,
2 2
Critical Region , X α ,k− p−1= X 0.05,4 =9.49

Decision rule

5%

4.98292 9.49

Decision

Since X 2test < X 2α ,k− p−1, this value does not lie in the critical region. There is no evidence at 5%
significance level to suggest that a normal distribution is not appropriate. Therefore, H 0 is
failed to reject. Thus, the data is following the normal distribution.

Parameter W
 Random Number Generated Given Probabilistic Characteristic
mean 60.03884903 60
standard deviation 7.031287767 7
Table 2.1 mean and standard deviation of parameter W
Bin Observed Frequency
≤ 35 0
35-40 1
40-45 1
45-50 7
50-55 10
55-60 32
60-65 26
65-70 16
70-75 5
75-80 1
80-85 1
85 ≤ 0
Table 2.2 Bin and Observed frequency of parameter W
X Z-score Cumulative probability
35 -3.56106 0.000185
40 -2.84995 0.002186
45 -2.13885 0.016224
50 -1.42774 0.076683
55 -0.71663 0.2368
60 -0.00553 0.497796
65 0.705582 0.759776
70 1.416689 0.921713
75 2.127797 0.983323
80 2.838904 0.997737
85 3.550011 0.999807
Table 2.3 Calculated probability of parameter W
Range Theoretical Class probability, P(Z) Expected value, Ei =nP(Z)
-∞ < X ≤ 35 0.000185 0.018468*
35 < X ≤ 40 0.002002 0.200160*
40 < X ≤ 45 0.014038 1.403775*
45 < X ≤ 50 0.060459 6.045936*
50 < X ≤ 55 0.160117 16.01171
55 < X ≤ 60 0.260995 26.09953
60 < X ≤ 65 0.26198 26.19802
65 < X ≤ 70 0.161937 16.19371
70 < X ≤ 75 0.06161 6.160991*
75 < X ≤ 80 0.014414 1.441353*
80 < X ≤ 85 0.002071 0.207083*
85 < X < ∞ 0.000193 0.019261*
Value*- expected value need to combine to other categories because Ei <5 .
Table 2.4 Theoretical class probability of parameter W
 Range Oi Ei ( Oi−E i ) 2
( Oi−E i ) ( Oi−Ei )
2

Ei
P (−∞< x ≤ 50 ) 9 7.668339 1.331661 1.773321 0.231252
P ( 50< x ≤ 55 ) 10 16.01171 -6.01171 36.14062 2.257137
P ( 55< x ≤ 60 ) 32 26.09953 5.900467 34.81551 1.333951
P ( 60< x< 65 ) 26 26.19802 -0.19802 0.039212 0.001497
P ( 65< x ≤ 70 ) 16 16.19371 -0.19371 0.037525 0.002317
P ( 70< x< ∞ ) 7 7.828688 -0.82869 0.686723 0.087719
2
( Oi−E i ) 3.913
∑ E =¿
i
873

Table 2.5 Results of chi-square test for parameter W

Histogram W
30

25

20
Uniform Load
Frequency

Scaled Probability Distribution

15
Scaled Normal Curve

10

0
30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 75-80 80-85
Bin

Graph 2.0 Histogram W

Hypothesis
H 0 : Data follow the normal distribution

H 1 : Data do not follow the normal distribution

Test Statistic
2
Chi−squared , X test =4.98292
Significance level , α =0.05 , k=6 , p=0 ,
2 2
Critical Region , X α ,k− p−1= X 0.05 ,5=11.07

Decision rule

5%

3.91387 11.07

Decision

Since X 2test < X 2α ,k− p−1, this value does not lie in the critical region. There is no evidence at 5%
significance level to suggest that a normal distribution is not appropriate. Therefore, H 0 is
failed to reject. Thus, the data is following the normal distribution.

Parameter I
Random Number Generated Given Probabilistic Characteristic
Ln (X) X Ln (X) X
 mean 7.005675146 1105.749296 7.005717106 1100
standard deviation 0.07267388 79.93986663 0.072631379 80
Table 3.1 mean and standard deviation of parameter I
Bin Observed Frequency
≤ 960 0
960-980 3
980-1000 6
1000-1020 4
1020-1040 4
1040-1060 8
1060-1080 7
1080-1100 13
1100-1120 10
1120-1140 11
1140-1160 7
1160-1180 7
1180-1200 4
1200-1220 4
1220-1240 2
1240-1260 3
1260-1280 3
1280-1300 1
1300 ≤ 0
Table 3.2 Bin and Observed frequency of parameter I
X Cumulative probability
940 0.013946
960 0.028124
980 0.052041
1000 0.088928
1020 0.141209
1040 0.20963
1060 0.29267
1080 0.386522
1100 0.485677
1120 0.583957
1140 0.675652
1160 0.756437
1180 0.823842
1200 0.877255
1220 0.917556
1240 0.946581
1260 0.966579
1280 0.97979
1300 0.988175

Table 3.3 Calculated

Range
probability of parameter ITheoretical Class probability, Expected value, Ei =nP(Z)
P(Z)
 -∞ < X ≤ 940 0.013946 1.39460*
940 < X ≤ 960 0.014178 1.41784*
960 < X ≤ 980 0.023916 2.39165*
980 < X ≤ 1000 0.036887 3.68868*
1000 < X ≤ 1020 0.052282 5.22817
1020 < X ≤ 1040 0.06842 6.84203
1040 < X ≤ 1060 0.08304 8.30402
1060 < X ≤ 1080 0.093852 9.38519
1080 < X ≤ 1100 0.099155 9.91553
1100 < X ≤ 1120 0.09828 9.82797
1120 < X ≤ 1140 0.091695 9.16952
1140 < X ≤ 1160 0.080785 8.07848
1160 < X ≤ 1180 0.067406 6.74055
1180 < X ≤ 1200 0.053413 5.3413
1200 < X ≤ 1220 0.040301 4.03009*
1220 < X ≤ 1240 0.029024 2.90243*
1240 < X ≤ 1260 0.019998 1.99982*
1260 < X ≤ 1280 0.013211 1.32112*
1280 < X ≤ 1300 0.008385 0.8385*
1300 < X < ∞ 0.011825 1.182488*
Value*- expected value need to combine to other categories because Ei <5 .
Table 3.4 Theoretical class probability of parameter I

Range Oi Ei ( Oi−E i ) 2
( Oi−E i ) ( Oi−Ei )
2

Ei
P (−∞ < x ≤ 1000 ) 9 8.892775 0.107225 0.011497 0.001293
P ( 1000< x ≤ 1020 ) 4 5.228173 -1.22817 1.508409 0.288515
P ( 1020< x ≤ 1040 ) 4 6.842034 -2.84203 8.077157 1.18052
P ( 1040< x ≤ 1060 ) 8 8.304021 -0.30402 0.092429 0.011131
P ( 1060< x ≤ 1080 ) 7 9.385194 -2.38519 5.68915 0.606184
P ( 1080< x ≤ 1100 ) 13 9.915526 3.084474 9.51398 0.959503
P(1120< x ≤1140) 10 9.827975 0.172025 0.029593 0.003011
P(1140< x ≤1160) 11 9.169517 1.830483 3.350668 0.365414
P(1160< x ≤1180) 7 8.07848 -1.07848 1.163119 0.143977
P(1180< x ≤1200) 7 6.740551 0.259449 0.067314 0.009986
P(1200< x ≤1220) 4 5.341299 -1.3413 1.799083 0.336825
P(1220< x <∞ ) 18 12.27445 5.72555 32.78192 2.670745
2
( Oi−E i ) 6.577
∑ E =¿
i
104

Table 3.5 Results of chi-square test for parameter I

 Histogram Ln ( I )
30 35
Moment of Inertia 30
25
Scaled Normal Curve 25
20
Scaled Probability Distribution
20
15
Frequency

15
10
10
5 5

0 0
6.80 - 6.85

6.85 - 6.9

6.9 - 6.95

6.95 - 7

7 - 7.05

7.05 - 7.1

7.1 - 7.15

7.15 - 7.2
Bin

Graph 3.0 Histogram Ln (I)

14 Log Normal I 14

12 12
Moment of Inertia
10 10
Scaled Probability Distribution
8 8
Scaled Log Normal Curve
Frequency

6 6

4 4

2 2

0 0
60 80 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0
0 -9 0-9 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -12 -12 -12 -12 -12 -13 -13 -13 -13 -13
94 96 980 000 02 0 04 0 06 0 08 0 100 120 140 160 180 200 22 0 24 0 26 0 28 0 300 320 340 360
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Bin

Graph 3.1 Histogram Log Normal I

Hypothesis
H 0 : Data follow the log normal distribution

H 1 : Data do not follow the log normal distribution

Test Statistic

Chi−squared , X 2test =6.577104

Significance level , α =0.05 , k=12 , p=0 ,

Critical Region , X 2α ,k− p−1= X 20.05 ,11=19.68

Decision rule

5%

6.57710 19.68

Decision

Since X 2test < X 2α ,k− p−1, this value does not lie in the critical region. There is no evidence at 5%
significance level to suggest that a normal distribution is not appropriate. Therefore, H 0 is
failed to reject. Thus, the data is following the log normal distribution.
Parameter Y
Random Number Generated Given Probabilistic Characteristic
Ln (X) X Ln (X) X
mean 3.913425 50.21826 3.915233 50
standard deviation 0.07716 3.895591 0.079872 4
Table 4.1 mean and standard deviation of parameter Y

Bin Observed Frequency

≤ 42 0
42-44 3
44-46 11
46-48 15
48-50 19
50-52 25
52-54 12
54-56 6
56-58 6
58-60 1
60-62 2
62 ≤ 0
Table 4.2 Bin and observed frequency of parameter Y

X Cumulative probability
42 0.0113693
44 0.0469773
46 0.1359281
48 0.2921131
50 0.4927534
52 0.6879819
54 0.8362732
56 0.926552
58 0.971634
60 0.9904797
62 0.9971946
Table 4.3 Calculated probability of parameter Y
 Range Theoretical Class probability, P(Z) Expected value, Ei =nP(Z)
-∞ < X ≤ 42 0.0113693 1.136926*
42 < X ≤ 44 0.035608 3.560802*
44 < X ≤ 46 0.0889508 8.895082*
46 < X ≤ 48 0.156185 15.6185
48 < X ≤ 50 0.2006402 20.06402
50 < X ≤ 52 0.1952285 19.52285
52 < X ≤ 54 0.1482913 14.82913
54 < X ≤ 56 0.0902789 9.027886
56 < X ≤ 58 0.0450819 4.508194*
58 < X ≤ 60 0.0188458 1.884575*
60 < X ≤ 62 0.0067148 0.671483*
62 < X < ∞ 0.0028054 0.280544*
Value*- expected value need to combine to other categories because Ei <5 .
Table 4.4 Theoretical probability of parameter Y

Range Oi Ei ( Oi−E i ) 2
( Oi−E i ) ( Oi−Ei )
2

Ei
P (−∞< x ≤ 46 ) 14 13.59281 0.40719 0.165804 0.012198
P ( 46< x ≤ 48 ) 4 15.6185 -0.6185 0.382547 0.024493
P ( 48< x ≤50 ) 4 20.06402 -1.06402 1.132148 0.056427
P ( 50< x ≤ 52 ) 8 19.52285 5.477149 29.99917 1.536618
P ( 52< x ≤ 54 ) 7 14.82913 -2.82913 8.003974 0.539747
P ( 54< x ≤56 ) 13 9.027886 -3.02789 9.168094 1.015531
P(56< x < ∞) 9 7.344796 1.655204 2.7397 0.373012
2
( Oi−E i )
Table 4.5 Results of chi-square test for parameter y ∑ E =¿3.558
i
026
 Histogram Ln ( Y )
30 35
25 30
Yield Strength 25
20
Scaled Normal Curve 20
15
Frequency

Scaled Probability Dis-15

10 tribution
10
5 5
0 0
3.7 - 3.75

3.95 - 4

4 - 4.05

4.05 - 4.1

4.1 - 4.15
3.65 - 3.7

3.75 - 3.8

3.8 - 3.85

3.85 - 3.9

3.9 - 3.95

4.15 - 4.2
Bin

Graph 4.0 Histogram Ln (Y)

Log Normal Y
25 30
Yield Strength
25
20
Scaled Log Normal Curve
20
15
Scaled Probability Distribution
Frequency

15
10
10

5
5

0 0
42-44 44-46 46-48 48-50 50-52 52-54 54-56 56-58 58-60 60-62
Bin

Graph 4.1 Histogram Log Normal Y

Hypothesis
H 0 : Data follow the log normal distribution

H 1 : Data do not follow the log normal distribution

Test Statistic

Chi−squared , X 2test =3.558026

Significance level , α =0.05 , k=7 , p=0 ,

Critical Region , X 2α ,k− p−1= X 20.05 ,6 =12.59

Decision rule

5%

3.55802 12.59

Decision

Since X 2test < X 2α ,k− p−1, this value does not lie in the critical region. There is no evidence at 5%
significance level to suggest that a normal distribution is not appropriate. Therefore, H 0 is
failed to reject. Thus, the data is following the log normal distribution.
Task 3

Bending moment (M)

S=900∈¿ P=4200 lb

W S2
M= + PL
2
mean=¿ 4551836.273 lbin
standard deviation=¿381007.796

Stress (σ )
C=10∈¿
Mc lb
σ= mean=¿41361.01576 2
I in
standard deviation=¿4411.571072
lb lb lb lb
μ R=¿ 50218.26 2
σ R =3895.591 2 μS =¿41361.01576 2 σ S=¿4411.571072 2
in in in in

Task 4

Probability of failure ( Pf )
P F ( R−S<0 )=P ( M < 0 )

μ M =μ R−μ S=¿ 8857.245417

σ M = √ σ 2R + σ 2S =¿5885.370641

μM
β= =¿1.50496
σM

P F=Φ ( 0−μ M
σM )=Φ (−β )=Φ (−1.50496 )=0.0618=6.18 %

The failure probability Pf is the probability for exceeding a limit state within a defined
reference time period. It indicates the percentage of an intentional condition will occur on the
investigated crane.
The magnitude of the failure probability is found as 6.18% in the statistical analysis. It is
closely connected with the interaction of the resistance and the action functions which are
varying with time. The probability of failure also indicates the probability of a random stress
acting on the investigated crane will exceed the yield strength, which leads to material failure
(Müller, 2010).
Thus, by referring to the reliability index for building components which is given as 5%
quantile in civil engineering, 6.18% is slightly higher. Therefore, the safety margin of the
crane investigated is not satisfying and should be improved to reach the desired target
reliability index of 5%.

Task 5
Goodness Fit Test of Stress

Bin (k) Observed Frequency

28-30 0
30-32 0
32-34 5
34-36 5
36-38 15
38-40 17
40-42 17
42-44 11
44-46 13
46-48 9
48-50 6
50-52 1
52-54 0
54-56 1
56-58 0
58-60 0
Table 5.1 Bin and observed frequency of stress

X Z-score Cumulative probability

32000 -2.12192337 0.016922
34000 -1.668570139 0.047601
36000 -1.215216908 0.112142
38000 -0.761863677 0.223071
40000 -0.308510446 0.378847
42000 0.144842786 0.557582
44000 0.598196017 0.725145
46000 1.051549248 0.853497
48000 1.504902479 0.933825
50000 1.95825571 0.9749
52000 2.411608942 0.992059
54000 2.864962173 0.997915
56000 3.318315404 0.999547
58000 3.771668635 0.999919
Table 5.2 Calculated probability of stress

Range (k) Theoretical Class probability, P(Z) Expected value, Ei =nP(Z)

-∞ < X ≤ 32 0.016922 1.692209*
 32 < X ≤ 34 0.030679 3.067921*
34 < X ≤ 36 0.06454 6.454039*
36 < X ≤ 38 0.110929 11.0929
38 < X ≤ 40 0.155776 15.57763
40 < X ≤ 42 0.178736 17.87355
42 < X ≤ 44 0.167563 16.75629
44 < X ≤ 46 0.128351 12.83514
46 < X ≤ 48 0.080329 8.032863
48 < X ≤ 50 0.041075 4.107457*
50 < X ≤ 52 0.017159 1.715885*
52 < X ≤ 54 0.005856 0.585586*
54 < X ≤ 56 0.001632 0.163248*
56 < X ≤ 58 0.000453 0.045281*
58 < X < ∞ 0.000081 0.008108*
Value*- expected value need to combine to other categories because Ei <5 .
Table 5.3 Theoretical probability of stress

Range Oi Ei ( Oi−E i ) 2
( Oi−E i ) ( Oi−Ei )
2

Ei
P (−∞ < x ≤ 36 ) 10 12.15638 -2.15638 4.649975 0.382513
P ( 36< x ≤ 38 ) 15 11.0929 3.9071 15.26543 1.376144
P ( 38< x ≤ 40 ) 17 15.57763 1.42237 2.023136 0.129874
P ( 40< x ≤ 42 ) 17 17.87355 -0.87355 0.76309 0.042694
P ( 42< x ≤ 44 ) 11 16.75629 -5.75629 33.13487 1.977459
P ( 44< x ≤ 46 ) 13 12.83514 0.16486 0.027179 0.002118
P ( 46< x ≤ 48 ) 9 8.032863 0.967137 0.935354 0.116441
P( 48< x< ∞) 8 6.625566 1.374434 1.889069 0.285118
2
( Oi−E i )
Table 5.4 Results of chi-square test for stress ∑ Ei
=¿4.3123
61
 Histogram Stress
20 18

18 Histogram Stress 16
16 Scaled Normal Curve 14
14 Scaled Probability Distribution 12
12
10
Frequency

10
8
8
6
6

4 4

2 2

0 0
28-30

30-32

32-34

34-36

36-38

38-40

40-42

42-44

44-46

46-48

48-50

50-52

52-54

54-56

56-58

58-60
Bin (k)

Graph 5.0 Histogram of stress

Hypothesis

H 0 : Data follow the log normal distribution

H 1 : Data do not follow the log normal distribution

Test Statistic

Chi−squared , X 2test =4.312361

Significance level , α =0.05 , k=8 , p=0 ,

Critical Region , X 2α ,k− p−1= X 20.05 ,7 =14.07

Decision rule

5%

4.31236 14.07

Decision
 2 2
Since X test < X α ,k− p−1, this value does not lie in the critical region. There is no evidence at 5%
significance level to suggest that a normal distribution is not appropriate. Therefore, H 0 is failed to
reject. Thus, the data is following the normal distribution.

Conclusion:

The performed statistical analysis of the 4 parameters are satisfying as all of them follows the nature
of distribution given in the task. Chi-square tests are carried out to determine the suitability of each
parameters which are L, W, I and Y. The parameter L and W are found to be normally distributed
whereas the parameter I and Y are found to be log normally distributed.

The results in the calculations of I and Y has validated the relationship between normal distribution
and log normal distribution. By referring to the drawn histograms for logarithm values and normal
values, X is proved to be log normally distributed if ln (X) is normally distributed (Will, 2020).

Besides, the probability of failure is found as 6.18% in the analysation which is not satisfying the
safety margin requirement. The investigated crane has exceeded the given reliability index of 5% and
improvement should be done in terms of the durability and performances of the crane.

All the objectives have been achieved by applying the data analysis tool from Microsoft Excel. Lastly,
the stress results show that the stress values are normally distributed according to the goodness fit
test.

References:

1. H.S. Müller, 2010 Deterioration Processes and Standard Test Methods, Non-Destructive
Evaluation of Reinforced Concrete Structures, Woodhead Publishing Series in Civil and
Structural Engineering, vol 1 pg 94-113.

2. Kenton, Will 2020 Understanding Log-normal, Definition of Log Normal Distribution, viewed
online 10 April 2021. <https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/log-normal-distribution.asp >
Appendix

Table 6.0 random number generated:

L (ft) W (lb/ft) I (in4) Y (ksi)

52.32253 83.08021 1192.277 50.35783
43.89567 57.24993 1093.211 46.94544
44.28051 54.62796 906.402 53.64085
38.6279 59.04738 1121.892 51.0122
51.45507 70.53822 1196.318 49.85995
62.28615 57.82319 1203.218 52.69342
48.15679 62.61004 1203.204 53.2959
51.75918 61.29276 1104.23 55.13342
51.04277 60.21771 1270.003 46.43116
47.26507 56.0371 1098.041 43.65451
57.90469 58.51391 976.7596 45.77306
38.4369 60.14861 1046.92 50.76691
47.45922 65.41238 981.0935 47.60434
41.62541 66.35971 1135.596 49.96506
46.26809 52.4422 1115.529 49.5845
51.95613 57.86755 1106.781 49.41337
53.92375 39.80049 1035.86 44.00869
49.25244 64.27683 1048.021 49.24916
53.5635 58.48103 1052.66 47.66391
50.79337 56.85907 1149.007 50.47421
43.10335 59.72924 1091.948 56.01981
53.38008 58.84372 1159.869 51.78778
41.53324 59.70513 1130.403 53.85517
59.65256 62.49787 939.117 50.5467
57.28127 65.17996 1100.083 48.18503
52.00072 61.00183 1091.564 43.81196
51.75679 54.70955 1181.729 50.77947
54.50358 70.89601 1050.369 52.70862
44.9924 64.282 1143.436 54.36988
63.31904 65.30115 1089.792 53.43999
51.21049 54.93344 1282.961 46.56711
62.95135 48.41848 1122.938 52.54644
52.1161 61.50801 1132.507 48.62177
47.16898 68.06375 1230.72 59.56943
43.22977 56.25829 1005.495 45.47363
47.0644 63.5839 1069.372 48.48476
57.37123 58.22945 1085.569 47.474
47.76971 58.41132 1079.613 44.79924
43.28757 45.69214 1127.773 49.33431
49.83038 64.38773 1139.023 53.61805
46.15548 49.04243 1015.417 47.20042
49.01058 68.3567 1164.906 49.86881
53.78664 70.1398 1162.05 60.67948
43.93941 45.23942 1118.681 51.59923
39.81888 55.79522 1117.884 50.90742
55.17138 67.33249 1087.086 45.95537
42.94272 64.84978 1089.411 54.59327
46.11821 61.42153 978.5262 49.50178
49.77665 62.71828 1172.903 45.47008
53.34089 67.60401 1115.68 50.08802
47.05663 56.24654 1050.53 52.11467
44.78925 56.36595 1145.433 55.19642
49.16864 57.0878 956.499 44.63
52.739 62.00491 1222.827 48.20805
50.06587 59.85353 1095.083 46.82876
49.95433 63.40978 994.1309 47.54169
49.37303 56.32483 1054.026 56.26657
43.48724 55.93802 1209.445 56.86385
54.16397 52.17584 1263.665 50.95305
47.99103 70.65781 1133.231 52.32992
47.0985 64.34545 992.4147 49.69555
42.14749 57.73309 1110.616 51.90477
49.9323 68.52509 982.4126 51.2993
54.62991 71.66228 1171.781 51.04092
55.70721 63.14448 1000.197 44.45226
48.52736 48.26635 1248.022 49.14576
53.63603 76.29789 1158.74 51.41962
49.66913 59.00574 1181.133 46.49008
60.95023 56.56185 1160.795 52.32329
40.18139 56.09667 1069.476 51.06713
47.75593 56.58298 1091.056 57.43841
52.41681 65.39147 1053.642 54.92847
60.14835 48.51009 1243.505 47.75159
48.81059 67.52718 1037.229 50.61009
50.13105 53.22107 1145.229 45.10832
51.03206 64.78667 1098.818 50.3012
51.07774 66.97678 1164.076 61.1432
41.54194 58.45909 990.3933 39.51052
47.16231 61.07492 1213.399 45.04291
56.78065 69.34469 1249.397 51.61334
45.59677 66.49357 1075.985 51.22974
42.83432 63.66595 1039.911 46.80133
64.62773 54.87201 1140.56 50.01673
56.17264 61.64478 1023.794 49.30225
40.38741 66.12148 1276.012 52.98972
51.25971 55.25586 1117.852 47.06816
52.35175 54.26708 1127.793 48.52554
45.14807 57.77537 1069.528 46.11471
50.81746 62.2703 968.2608 51.00456
39.69473 59.10247 1132.497 57.34258
54.9985 53.92157 1095.119 50.58552
68.81999 44.08015 1067.122 57.48165
42.73309 68.01507 1121.015 54.12126
 51.47444 58.67401 1058.179 49.06369
55.62192 61.26498 995.5098 44.84286
61.66771 61.57055 1106.756 51.51734
51.55528 50.78679 1177.132 49.13831
52.22685 62.1549 1064.415 50.30366

Table 6.1 Converted values on calculating stress

L (in) W (lb/in) I (in4) Y (lb/in2 ) Moment (lbin) Stress ( lb/in2 )

627.8703 6.923351 1192.277 50357.83 5441012.449 45635.45852
526.7481 4.770828 1093.211 46945.44 4144527.147 37911.51608
531.3661 4.55233 906.402 53640.85 4075431.478 44962.73798
463.5348 4.920615 1121.892 51012.2 3939694.998 35116.53243
617.4608 5.878185 1196.318 49859.95 4974000.227 41577.58755
747.4337 4.8186 1203.218 52693.42 5090754.568 42309.49834
577.8815 5.217504 1203.204 53295.9 4540191.315 37734.17147
621.1102 5.10773 1104.23 55133.42 4677293.422 42357.97307
612.5133 5.018142 1270.003 46431.16 4604903.395 36259.00496
567.1808 4.669758 1098.041 43654.51 4273411.633 38918.49785
694.8563 4.876159 976.7596 45773.06 4893240.849 50096.67492
461.2428 5.012384 1046.92 50766.91 3967235.451 37894.35314
569.5106 5.451032 981.0935 47604.34 4599612.428 46882.5084
499.5049 5.529976 1135.596 49965.06 4337560.984 38196.34152
555.2171 4.370183 1115.529 49584.5 4101835.806 36770.32063
623.4736 4.822295 1106.781 49413.37 4571618.711 41305.52304
647.085 3.316707 1035.86 44008.69 4061023.475 39204.36513
591.0292 5.356403 1048.021 49249.16 4651665.821 44385.23486
642.7619 4.873419 1052.66 47663.91 4673334.799 44395.46912
609.5205 4.738256 1149.007 50474.21 4478979.835 38981.3162
517.2402 4.977437 1091.948 56019.81 4188270.623 38355.968
640.561 4.903644 1159.869 51787.78 4676331.694 40317.7487
498.3989 4.975427 1130.403 53855.17 4108323.459 36343.86712
715.8307 5.208155 939.117 50546.7 5115791.904 54474.48735
687.3753 5.431663 1100.083 48185.03 5086799.877 46240.13484
624.0087 5.083486 1091.564 43811.96 4679648.054 42871.02636
621.0815 4.559129 1181.729 50779.47 4454989.443 37698.89626
654.043 5.908001 1050.369 52708.62 5139720.843 48932.51953
539.9088 5.356834 1143.436 54369.88 4437134.547 38805.28649
759.8285 5.441762 1089.792 53439.99 5395193.348 49506.63055
614.5259 4.577787 1282.961 46567.11 4435012.445 34568.5643
755.4162 4.034873 1122.938 52546.44 4806871.771 42806.19464
625.3932 5.125667 1132.507 48621.77 4702546.528 41523.32658
566.0278 5.671979 1230.72 59569.43 4674467.992 37981.56298
518.7573 4.688191 1005.495 45473.63 4077497.65 40552.12501
564.7728 5.298658 1069.372 48484.76 4518002.11 42249.13198
688.4548 4.852454 1085.569 47474 4856753.91 44739.24599
573.2365 4.86761 1079.613 44799.24 4378975.451 40560.60601
519.4509 3.807678 1127.773 49334.31 3723803.426 33019.08238
597.9646 5.365645 1139.023 53618.05 4684537.378 41127.667
553.8658 4.086869 1015.417 47200.42 3981418.273 39209.69862
588.127 5.696392 1164.906 49868.81 4777172.059 41009.06194
645.4397 5.844983 1162.05 60679.48 5078065.209 43699.18766
527.2729 3.769952 1118.681 51599.23 3741376.63 33444.53624
477.8266 4.649602 1117.884 50907.42 3889960.28 34797.53954
662.0565 5.611041 1087.086 45955.37 5053109.114 46483.04636
515.3127 5.404148 1089.411 54593.27 4352993.243 39957.29458
553.4186 5.118461 978.5262 49501.78 4397334.492 44938.341
597.3198 5.226523 1172.903 45470.08 4625484.946 39436.20944
640.0906 5.633667 1115.68 50088.02 4970015.894 44546.9824
564.6796 4.687212 1050.53 52114.67 4269975.097 40645.91485
537.471 4.697163 1145.433 55196.42 4159729.067 36315.77507
590.0237 4.757316 956.499 44630 4404812.483 46051.40672
632.868 5.167076 1222.827 48208.05 4750711.453 38850.23988
600.7904 4.987794 1095.083 46828.76 4543376.316 41488.8816
599.452 5.284149 994.1309 47541.69 4657778.476 46852.76622
592.4763 4.693736 1054.026 56266.57 4389363.712 41643.77536
521.8469 4.661502 1209.445 56863.85 4079665.369 33731.71253
649.9676 4.347987 1263.665 50953.05 4490798.527 35537.87982
575.8924 5.888151 1133.231 52329.92 4803449.007 42387.18996
565.182 5.36212 992.4147 49695.55 4545422.967 45801.65071
505.7699 4.81109 1110.616 51904.77 4072725.182 36670.86757
599.1876 5.710424 982.4126 51299.3 4829309.74 49157.65268
655.5589 5.971856 1171.781 51040.92 5171949.343 44137.51237
668.4865 5.26204 1000.197 44452.26 4938769.492 49377.9785
582.3283 4.022196 1248.022 49145.76 4074768.503 32649.82283
643.6324 6.358158 1158.74 51419.62 5278309.837 45552.14308
596.0296 4.917145 1181.133 46490.08 4494767.947 38054.70327
731.4027 4.713487 1160.795 52323.29 4980853.702 42908.98297
482.1766 4.674723 1069.476 51067.13 3918404.608 36638.55997
573.0712 4.715248 1091.056 57438.41 4316574.363 39563.28547
629.0017 5.449289 1053.642 54928.47 4848769.336 46019.1536
721.7802 4.042508 1243.505 47751.59 4668692.573 37544.6097
585.727 5.627265 1037.229 50610.09 4739095.854 45689.96133
601.5726 4.435089 1145.229 45108.32 4322815.982 37746.2956
612.3848 5.398889 1098.818 50301.2 4758566.172 43306.2444
612.9329 5.581399 1164.076 61143.2 4834784.429 41533.22472
498.5033 4.871591 990.3933 39510.52 4066708.413 41061.54961
565.9477 5.089577 1213.399 45042.91 4438258.941 36577.08798
681.3678 5.778725 1249.397 51613.34 5202128.258 41637.1085
547.1613 5.541131 1075.985 51229.74 4542235.291 42214.66097
514.0118 5.305496 1039.911 46801.33 4307575.557 41422.52326
775.5328 4.572667 1140.56 50016.73 5109167.8 44795.26091
674.0717 5.137065 1023.794 49302.25 4911612.271 47974.61423
484.649 5.510123 1276.012 52989.72 4267125.666 33441.1117
615.1166 4.604655 1117.852 47068.16 4448374.685 39793.94499
628.221 4.522257 1127.793 48525.54 4470042.073 39635.31015
541.7769 4.814614 1069.528 46114.71 4225381.517 39506.9883
609.8095 5.189191 968.2608 51004.56 4662822.526 48156.68106
476.3368 4.925206 1132.497 57342.58 3995323.013 35278.88744
659.982 4.493464 1095.119 50585.52 4591777.499 41929.46587
 825.8399 3.673346 1067.122 57481.65 4956232.663 46444.83869
512.7971 5.667923 1121.015 54121.26 4449256.59 39689.52468
617.6933 4.889501 1058.179 49063.69 4574559.634 43230.50178
667.463 5.105415 995.5098 44842.86 4871037.924 48930.08391
740.0125 5.130879 1106.756 51517.34 5186058.54 46858.20712
618.6634 4.232232 1177.132 49138.31 4312440.326 36635.13726
626.7222 5.179575 1064.415 50303.66 4729961.38 44437.1825

Figure 6.0 Chi-Square distribution table