CRITICAL CHAIN PROJECT

MANAGEMENT (CCPM)

Prof. Biswajit Mahanty

Professor
Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering
Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur

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 CRITICAL CHAIN
PROJECT MANAGEMENT

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 CCPM and TOC
• Critical chain project management (CCPM) is a new way of looking at
project management.
• It is based on the Theory of Constraints (TOC) proposed by Eliyahu M.
Goldratt, which is based on the interaction of statistical fluctuation
and dependent events.
• Tasks in a project do not consume exactly the same time as was
originally estimated.
• Although project managers are keen to make up the losses in one task
with the gains in another, it never happens.

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 Delays Accumulate Not Gains
• As execution of a task is dependent on the completion of preceding
tasks, the delays accumulate but the gains do not materialize!

• Why? – think of a train which can never leave early from a station but
it has to make up when it is late.

• Same thing happens in a project.

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 70% Syndrome
• Many projects start well under control up to about 70% of their
completion. Thereafter, the project starts failing the targets.
• Completed tasks need reworking – resources are in short supply –
continuing tasks get late and late.
• Project managers are busy keeping things together and are asking for
resources that are not forthcoming. They are also looking for enormous
personal involvement of the team members.

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 Focus on the Wrong Place
• The project success is usually measured in earned value. It may lead
people to complete less important tasks with more earned value
earlier at the expense of critical work.
• When more importance is given to task completion, completion of non-
critical tasks may be treated at the same level as that of task on the
critical chain.
• Employing bad multitasking leads people to do too many “in process
tasks” that could have been left for later.

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 Critical Path and Critical Chain
• If there are no contention for resource, critical chain is the same
as critical path.

• When there are resource contentions, critical chain need to be

found out considering the impact of statistical fluctuation and
dependent events.

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Critical Path and Critical Chain
Safety
Safety Safety End

Safety

Critical Path Methods put safety for each task

Critical Chain combines safety into buffers

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 Why Projects Get Delayed?
• Murphy’s law: Things do not happen predictably – the worst happens
when it was least desired! (every task has variations not found in
another task)
• Bad multitasking: Carrying out a number of activities at the same time,
leads to more pending tasks to accumulate
• Student’s Syndrome: Tendency to keep activity completions pending
till the last moment. An unforeseen event at that time may create
havoc

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 Why Projects Get Delayed?
• Task Dependence: Tasks are dependent on one another – while
delays are passed on from one task to other, seldom the benefits of
early completion is passed on.
• Parkinson’s law: Work fills up the available time; Since there are no
rewards for early finish, extra efforts are not made to complete an
activity early

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 Why Projects Get Delayed?
• Self-protection: An early finish calls for less allotted time later! People
tend to add safety buffers in every task for self protection.
• Dropped baton: Early finish may not lead to the next activity early start
if people are not ready to start. Required signals are not sent

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 Conventional Method and CCPM
Features Conventional Project Critical Chain Project
Management Management
Estimate Type Uses worst-case estimates Uses average-case estimates

Protection of Protects individual tasks with Protects project with buffers

individual tasks safety
Start and Finish of Starts and finishes tasks at Starts tasks as soon as
Tasks scheduled start and finish predecessors are done, finishes
times tasks as quickly as possible.
Ownership of Task Individual ownership of task Team ownership of project
Completion completion completion
Project Health Project health is based on Project health is based on days
individual task completion used from the project buffer
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 Basic CCPM Philosophy
Nine points for CCPM basic philosophy:
1. Reduce duration estimates to 50-50
2. Eliminate resource contention by implementing backward pass
scheduling and identify the critical chain
3. Insert a project buffer at the end of project to aggregate critical
change contingency time
4. Protect the critical chain from resource unavailability by resource
buffers

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 Basic CCPM Philosophy
5. Size and place feeding buffers on all paths that feed the critical chain
6. Schedule activities to start as late as possible, protected by buffers
7. Provide resources with activity durations and estimated start times,
not milestones
8. Deliver roadrunner performance eliminating multi-tasking and student
syndrome
9. Use buffer management to control the schedule

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 FIVE STEPS OF TOC
• Identify the system’s constraint (the resource or policy that prevents
the organization from obtaining the goal)
• Decide how to exploit the system’s constraint (get the most capacity
out of the constrained process)
• Subordinate everything else to the above decision (align the whole
system or organization to support the decision made above)
• Elevate the system’s constraint (make other major changes needed
to break the constraint)
• If in the previous steps a constraint has been broken, go back to step
1. Don't let inertia become the constraint.

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 BUFFERS
• Buffers result as part of the focusing steps EXPLOIT and SUBORDINATE.

• Buffers are placed before the governing constraint, thus ensuring that the
constraint is never starved.

• Buffers are also placed behind the constraint to prevent downstream failure to
block the constraint's output.

• Buffers protect the constraint from variations in the rest of the system and should
allow for normal variation of processing time and the occasional upset (Murphy)
before and behind the constraint.

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 BUFFERS
• Buffers are not queues before every work centre – Buffer management is crucial to
TOC.

• With only one constraint in the system, all other parts of the system must have
sufficient capacity to keep up with the work at the constraint and to catch up if
time was lost.

• Buffer management may include a visual system in three colours: Green (OK),
Yellow (Caution) and Red (Action required).

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Buffer management: Fever Chart

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 DRUM-BUFFER-ROPE
• Application in Manufacturing Operations. It follows the Pull System rather than the
Push System.

• The drum is the physical constraint of the plant - the work center or machine or
operation limiting the plant’s ability. Rest of the plant should follow the beat of
the drum.

• The buffer protects the drum, so that it always has work flowing to it. Buffers have
time as their unit of measure.

• The rope is the work release mechanism for the plant. Orders are released to the
shop floor at one "buffer time" before they are due.

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 Buffer Concepts in CCPM
50% confidence

35 m
Safety

10%
confidence 90% confidence

Safety buffers are commonly added in the estimation

of activity duration times – TOC attempts to remove
them from individual activities
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Buffer Concepts in CCPM

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 Buffer Concepts in CCPM
• CCPM shifts the safety associated with the critical chain activities to
the end of the critical chain in the form of a project buffer

• Feeding buffers are placed whenever a non-critical chain activity joins

the critical chain

• Resource buffers are placed whenever a resource has a job on the

critical chain, and the previous critical chain activity is done by a
different resource

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 Project Buffer
• CCPM shifts the safety associated with the critical chain activities to
the end of the critical chain in the form of a project buffer
• When all safety buffers are removed from individual tasks and added
as project buffer –duration of the project is substantially cut
• When all safety buffers are pooled together, not only the project can
have a better safety protection but also it can be completed in a less
time! (think of an insurance analogy)

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 Project Buffer
Conventional Project Schedule Task buffers are hidden
within individual tasks
Job 1
Job 2
Job 3
Job 4
CCPM Schedule

Buffers are pooled,

and made explicit

Project Buffer,

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 Feeding Buffer
• Critical Chain computes the project buffer for the baseline
schedule that does not yet contain the feeding buffers.
• During execution, the schedule contains feeding buffers placed
whenever a non-critical chain activity joins the critical chain.

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 Feeding Buffer

Project Buffer

Date 1 Date 2

Feeding Buffer

If Slack remains,
then schedule as
late as possible

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 Resource Buffer
• Resource buffers are placed whenever a resource has a job on the
critical chain, and the previous critical chain activity is done by a
different resource
• Resource buffers make sure that resources will be available when
needed and critical chain tasks can start on time or early.
• Resource buffers take the form of an advance warning - a wake-up call
for every new instance of a resource on the critical chain.

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 Resource Buffer
Feeding
Buffer

Critical Chain

Project
Alert Wkr A
Buffer
Alert Wkr B

Resource Alert Wkr C

Buffers

Adds neither Time nor Cost to the Project

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 Buffer Management
• Buffers provide protection against statistical variation
• Buffers act as transducers that provide vital operational measurements
and a proactive warning mechanism
• If activity variation consumes a buffer by a certain amount, warning is
raised to find future actions if the situation worsens
• Expediting, working overtime, subcontract, etc. are to be put into
effect if the situation deteriorates past a critical point

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 Rescheduling
• Reschedule should not be frequent – to be used only when project
buffer is in real trouble
• Buffers in critical chain should cope with serious delays. However,
buffer consumption implies resource contention and resolve of
resource conflicts to repair the schedule
• Uncertain events, activity delays, new activity additions, unavailability
of resources, late deliveries —may dramatically change the
composition of the critical sequences

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 Rescheduling
• A critical sequence may shift just as a bottleneck may shift.
• This may cause one or more other sequences to become as long as or
longer than the critical chain that was identified when the project was
initiated.
• Critical Chain methodology argues that the baseline schedule and the
associated critical chain should not change during project execution,
except for major disruptions.

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 Project Management & TOC
1. Identify the Constraint
• It is the Critical Chain that acts as project constraint - It defines
its success or failure
2. Exploit the Constraint
• Squeeze the critical chain – press for timely implementation of
all tasks onit

• Complete a tasks with full priority and maximal intensity and

pass the resource to the next task
• Protect the project buffer – consumption of it is an indicator of
the health of the project
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 Project Management & TOC
3. Subordinate everything else in the System to the constraint
• The non-critical parts of project plan are completely subordinated to
the critical chain - these are known as Feeding Chains
• Subordination means that these chains must be completed before
planned start of next task in the Critical Chain
• Resulting protection time gap is called Feeding Buffer

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 Project Management & TOC
4. Elevate the constraint
• The critical chain is now to be protected with the help of the project
buffer, feeding buffers and the resource buffers.
5. If a new constraint has been uncovered in the preceding steps, repeat
the process. Do not let inertia become the constraint
• When a new chain becomes the constraint, previous steps are to be
repeated for it
• Inertia should not be a constraint

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 Organizational Changes
• Create appropriate attitude in people – no “Student Syndrome”!
• Apply “relay race method” – start a task immediately, complete it in
the fastest possible way by taking up nothing else
• Expect to finish the tasks early. As in a baton race – people be informed
about an early finish so that they are prepared to grab the baton and
•
run
• No multitasking – a person should not use his energy in multiple tasks
at the same time

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 CCPM Project Tracking
• Following need be collected for each task:
• Actual Start Date
• Days Remaining
• Actual End Date
• The impact of the task completion on the project and on the feeding
buffers is to be computed
• Time may be consumed from an appropriate buffer for a late or
expected to be late task and detailed documentation as to why it was
required should be made

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 CCPM Project Tracking
• When a task is early and completes ahead of estimate, appropriate
buffer should be replenished
• The trends of buffer utilization should be monitored and the project
health may be assessed with the help of a fever chart
• Focus should be on the following:
• Starting tasks on time
• Completing tasks aggressively
• Maintaining quality
• Project buffer consumed

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CCPM Project Tracking
It’s OK for a But not TOO
task to be late
Late

Focus on Buffer Consumption.

Should be in Proportion or better

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 Benefits of CCPM
• Protection against Murphy’s Law
• Taking advantage of early finishes
• Team protection of the buffer
• Opportunity for team to focus
• Visibility to aggressive, possible, and realistic schedule
• Better visibility to when project is in trouble
• Strong response to buffer changes and its monitoring

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 Challenges Ahead
• Multi-tasking goes against the key goal of requiring focus to complete
tasks as quickly as possible
• Works best in an environment where “everyone is doing it”
• Cultural changes are required as it involves process innovation rather
than product innovation
• Tools availability – appropriate software may be made use of
• Moving target for a completion date

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 What Had to Change?
• The project and management team should understand the
methodology appropriately
• Estimation should be done aggressively by removing safety from
individual tasks
• The management should not hold the staff accountable for making
aggressive estimates without safety
• Multitasking should be minimized to the extent possible
• Consumption of Buffers of all types should be tracked aggressively

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 Further Reading

• Goldratt, Eliyahu M., Critical Chain, North River, Great Barrington, MA,
1997

• Leach, Lawrence P., Critical Chain Project Management, Artech House,

Boston, 2004

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CCPM Case Study

Pulok Ranjan Mohanta

Research Scholar, RCGSIDM
Under the Guidance of
Prof. Biswajit Mahanty
Dept. of I&SE, IIT Kharagpur

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 Motivation
Reasons for delay

Environmental

Political

Bureaucratic

Management

Source: Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation 2016 (GoI)

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 Causes of delay
Changes in
Delay in Regulations
Skill Gap payments

Improper risk
Weather Management
Unrealistic condition Design
Schedules
Improper Changes
Delay in Planning
getting Insufficient Improper
approvals Resource Supply and Controlling
Logistic of Execution
delay

More fundamental causes of project failures are related

to scheduling and human behavior.
-Goldratt (1997)
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 Illustrative example – Construction
of foundation
Formwork and rebar Final
1 Excavation 2 PCC laying 3 installation
4 Concreting

Excavation

Uncertainties:
• Equipment
failure PERT/CPM
• Hard soil
1 2 3 4

CCPM
1 2 3 4 Buffer
Probability of
= 2 hr = 1 hr completion

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 Project control by CCPM
Fever Chart

• Green region: Project is safe

• Yellow region: Project needs attention
• Red region: Project is in trouble
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Project
development
phases
Engineering and design

Materials procurement

Resource mobilization

Construction

Inspection and quality control

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Fast-Track Projects

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Grouping of bottlenecks
1. Delay causing issue
2. Inserting new task
3. Delaying the start of activities
4. Delaying the completion of activities
5. Inspection related cyclic task

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 Effects of bottlenecks
Sl No Bottleneck Delay causing Insertion of new Delaying the Delaying completion Cyclic task
issue task start of activities of activity
1 Design errors

2 Unavailability of requisite material

3 Unrealistic Project schedule

4 Delay in payment to subcontractor and suppliers

5 Skill gap

6 Inappropriate site management

7 Improper site safety

8 Workforce behavior

9 Delay in approval process

10 Change orders

11 Shortage of manpower

12 Extreme weather conditions

13 Poor asset management

14 Poor Quality assurance procedures

15 Concurrent engineering related issues

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Major activities
1. Construction, erection and automation
of Thickener 1 (TH 1)

2. Construction, erection and automation

of Thickener 2 (TH 2)

3. Construction, erection and automation

of Flash Mixer (FM)

4. Construction, erection and automation

of Sludge Storage Tanks (SST)

5. Construction, erection and automation

of Filter Press (FP)

6. Construction, erection and automation

of Cooling Tower (CT)

7. Construction, erection and automation

of Chemical Dosing System (CD)
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Precedence network diagram (level 1)

F
I
Milestones

D
H

C
L
B

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Estimated project schedule
Estimated finishing day from
project start
Milestone
Without safety With safety
duration duration
A 94 120
B 112 138
C 143 176
D 194 246
E 219 274
F 227 286
G 228 288
H 231 292
I 240 300
J 253 319
K 265 330
L 287 356
Red colored milestones have only civil works as predecessors
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Bottlenecks for sensitivity analysis
• Disruption during excavation of foundation Resource name Availability
 Disruption without task insertion Excavator 1
 Disruption with task insertion Crane 1
• Disruption due to delay in supply Concrete pump 2
• Disruption during erection activities
Civil crew 2
• Disruption due to equipment failure
Mechanical crew 1
• Disruption due to inspection related rework
Electrical crew 1

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Effect of equipment failure
Estimated finishing time

Milestone Without
Effect of
safety
equipment failure
duration
A 94 102
B 112 113
C 143 144
D 194 215
E 219 228
F 227 247
G 228 249
H 231 251
I 240 277
J 253 287
K 265 271
L 287 297
Red colored milestones have only civil works as predecessors 56
Equipment failure Supply delay Task insertion

Inspection uncertainty Erection uncertainty Excavation uncertainty

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Combined effect of bottlenecks
Estimated finishing time

Milestone Without Combined

With safety
safety effect of
duration
duration bottlenecks
A 94 106 120
B 112 114 138
C 143 164 176
D 194 220 246
E 219 236 274
F 227 256 286
G 228 229 288
H 231 294 292
I 240 304 300
J 253 311 319
K 265 274 330
L 287 312 356
Red colored milestones have only civil works as predecessors
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Buffer allocation

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 Buffer sizing techniques
1. Cut and Paste Method (CP): Buffer Size= ½ * DL,

Where DL is the duration of the longest path in the chain.

2. Root Squared Error Method (RSEM): Buffer Size = σ𝒏𝒊=𝟏(∆𝑻𝒊 )𝟐

Where, ∆𝑇𝑖 = 𝐷𝑝𝑖 − 𝐷𝑚𝑖 , Difference between pessimistic and meanduration of activity i.

3. Adaptive Procedure with Density (APD) Buffer Size= 𝟏 + 𝑲𝒅 ∗ 𝝈𝒑𝒂𝒕𝒉

Where, Kd= Network density, given by the ratio of number of precedence relations to the number of
activities in the network.

4. Adaptive Procedure with Resource Tightness (APRT) Buffer Size = (𝟏 + 𝑲𝒕 ) ∗ 𝝈𝒑𝒂𝒕𝒉

Where, Kt= Network resource tightness, given by the ratio of resource use to the resource availability.

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 Buffer sizes
Buffer No Chain length Cut and Paste RSEM APD APRT
Cut and paste
1 94 47 20 12 20
method gives very
2 194 97 27 16 28
large buffer sizes
3 227 114 28 16 28
compared to
4 253 127 29 17 29
others
5 240 120 29 16 28
6 231 116 29 16 28
7 228 114 29 16 28
8 112 56 13 10 17
9 218 109 23 15 25
10 143 72 14 11 18
11 265 133 24 15 26
PB 287 144 24 15 27

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Project completion density
distribution
Scheduled completion
• Without safety factor 287
days
• With safety factors 356 days

Mean 297

Mode 297

Median 297

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Project buffer consumption

Mean 9.639

Mode 10

Medi 10
an

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 Buffer consumption statistics
Buffer Minimum Maximum Mean Median Mode
1 -1 12 4.784 5 5
2 1 26 16.015 20 21 The negative sign indicated
the activities are finishing
3 2 29 18.333 20 21
earlier then estimated
4 14 58 36.37 38 40
5 8 64 37.248 38 39
6 -9 63 19.414 21 25
7 3 30 19.794 22 23
8 -7 2 -1.901 -1 -1
9 -40 17 -18.544 -25 -29
10 -15 21 5.715 7 10
11 -25 9 -15.396 -21 -22
PB -6 25 9.639 10 10

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 Buffer allocation

Some activities are benefitted from delay of other parallel activities 65

Comparison of buffering techniques

• APD gives a tight schedule

• APRT gives acceptable
buffer sizes

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 Student Syndrome

You have 14 days to do a 4 day task. When do you start?

Task Due Date

Now
4 Days 4 Days 4 Days 4 Days

Here? Here? Here? Here? Day 14

Wait till the latest possible time to execute the task

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 Parkinson’s Law

You have 14 days to do a 4 day task. When do you finish?

I could start early But. I want to think Task Due Date

Now and end here. about this for a while. Or, maybe I should try something
4 Days 3 More Days 2 More Days totally different.

Day 14
(If I finish early, I may get
another task)

Work expands to fill the time available 68

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Sample network

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 Scheduling with PERT/CPM
• Pessimistic time (90% probability) is
used for scheduling.
• Resource availability constraint is not
considered.
• Scheduled completion time 161 days

Due to resource constraint the resource overloading

situation appears, which leads to multitasking and also
delay of the activities.

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 Scheduling with CCPM
Maximum
Peak units
Resource Available
required
(Constraint)
r1 2 2
r2 2 2
r3 4 2
r4 2 2
r5 3 2
r6 3 3
r7 2 2 • The mean duration (50% probability)
• Identified Critical
r8 4 2 calculated from the three point estimation
Chain:
r9 3 2 is used for scheduling.
r10 3 2 A-B-J-K-D-Q-E-F-G-H-I
• Considers resource availability constraints.
• Feeding Chains:
• Critical Chain is the longest chain of
• S-C feeding at D,
activities considering both precedence and
• L-T-U feeding at E, resource dependency.
• R-O-P feeding at H • Other chains are called feeding chains that
feed into the critical chain. 71
 Estimated buffer sizes

**Maximum
Chain Chain Length Cut and Paste RSEM APD APRT
Allowed Buffer
Critical Chain (PB) 142 -- 71 16 15 11
Chain 1 (FB 1) 28 7 14 6 3 4
Chain 2 (FB 2) 48 8 24 10 7 6
Chain 3 (FB 3) 48 5 24 10 9 6
Scheduled Completion
-- -- 213 158 157 153
Time (days)
** To prevent slack in the critical chain. Any additional Buffer consumed will be borrowed from the Project Buffer
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Scheduled completion time
Minimum value 133 days
First quartile 139.5 days
Median value 146 days
Third quartile 152.5 days
Maximum value 159 days
Modal value 148 days

Completion time for PERT/CPM is 161 days

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 Buffer consumption
PB FB 1 FB 2

FB 3
Maximum
Chain Cut and
Chain Allowed RSEM APD APRT Median Mode
Length Paste
Buffer
Chain 1 (FB 1) 28 7 14 6 3 4 3.5 2
Chain 2 (FB 2) 48 8 24 10 7 6 1.5 3
Chain 3 (FB 3) 48 5 24 10 9 6 2 1
Critical Chain
142 -- 71 16 15 11 3.5 5
(PB)
Scheduled
Completion -- -- 213 158 157 153 146 148
Time (days) 74
 Evaluation of the buffering techniques
Maximum
Chain Cut and
Chain Allowed RSEM APD APRT
Length Paste
Buffer
Critical Chain
142 -- 71 16 15 11
(PB)
Chain 1
28 7 14 6 3 4
(FB 1)
Chain 2
48 8 24 10 7 6
(FB 2)
Chain 3
48 5 24 10 9 6
(FB 3)
Scheduled
Completion -- -- 213 158 157 153
Time (days)

Fever chart (comparison for the worst case)

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THANK YOU

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