Nile Basin Initiative

Water Resources Planning and Management Project

Nile Basin Decision Support System

National Nile DSS Pilot Application Case Study

Irrigation and Hydropower Development

Opportunities in the Tana-Beles Basins

Deksyos Tarekegn
National DSS Unit-Ethiopia
November 2011
Table of Contents

1. Background.............................................................................................................................. 2
2. Existing Developments ............................................................................................................. 3
2.1 Hydropower development ................................................................................................. 3
2.2 Irrigation Development ...................................................................................................... 3
3. Irrigation and Hydropower Development Potential .................................................................. 3
4. Data availability ....................................................................................................................... 4
5. Objective ................................................................................................................................. 5
6. Scenario Definition................................................................................................................... 6
7. Model Setup and Calibration .................................................................................................... 7
8. Results ................................................................................................................................... 10
8.1 Impact on Beles Hydropower Generation ......................................................................... 10
8.2 Impact on Lake Level and Navigation ................................................................................ 11
8.3 Impact on Beles outflow to Blue Nile ................................................................................ 13
8.4 Aggregated Results........................................................................................................... 14
9. Key messages......................................................................................................................... 15
10. Expansion with subsequent release of the NB-DSS: .............................................................. 15
References................................................................................................................................. 16

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1. Background

The Lake Tana basin has a drainage area of 15083 sq. Km, including lake surface area of 3000 sq.
km. The lake is the source of Blue Nile River and total storage capacity of 32,000mcm with a useful
storage capacity of 8,500mcm. The mean annual outflow from the lake is 3750mcm. Lake
Navigation is the major means transport for people living in the islands and on the shores of the
lake. Flooding in the floodplains around Lake Tana is a recurrent annual phenomenon.

The Beles sub-basin, which is the last tributary of Blue Nile before crossing the Ethio-Sudan border,
has a drainage area of 13573 sq. km. with a mean annual flow of 4900MCM.

Since 2010, the two basins are hydrologically connected through a 12 km tunnel to transfer water
from the Lake to generate hydropower of installed capacity of 460 mw located at upper reaches of
Beles River.

The Ethiopian government has conducted Integrated Water Resource Development Master Plan for
the Blue Nile basin in 1998. The master plan has identified various irrigation and hydropower
developments in the basin. Since then, few projects have been implemented and some are under
construction and the rest are at various levels of studies. Fig. 1.1 shows the location of study area.

The present National NDSS pilot application case is identified to evaluate irrigation and hydropower
development opportunities in the sub-basins and to assess the impacts of irrigation developments
on the downstream hydropower generation, on the lake level and hence lake navigation.

Figure 1.1: Location of Study Area and Development Potentials

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2. Existing Developments
2.1 Hydropower development

There are two hydropower projects located about 30km downstream of the lake, Tis-Abbay I
(11mw) and Tis-Abbay II (73 mw). Chara-Chara weir has been constructed at the outflow of the
Lake to control the outflow from the Lake thereby to release regulated flow for the generation of
hydropower at Tis-Abbay I and II, which are operated as a runoff river scheme. In 2010, the
construction of Tana-Beles hydropower plant, usually called Beles hydropower, with an installed
capacity of 460 mw is completed. The source of water for this plant is Lake Tana. Water is
transferred from the Lake via a 12 km tunnel to generate power at Beles HP. Since the
commissioning of Beles HP, the Tis-Abbay I and II plants are operated as stand by because the lake
water is not enough to generate power at both Beles and Tis-Abbay plants.

2.2 Irrigation Development

The only large scale irrigation development exists in the two Basins is the Koga irrigation located in
the Lake Tana basin. A dam has been constructed on the Koga River, a tributary of Lake Tana, to
supply water for 7,000ha irrigation development. The list of Existing developments are listed in
Table 2.1

Table 2.1 : Existing Developments in Tana-Beles Basin

Storage Irrigated Installed Remark

Capacity, mcm area, ha Capacity, mw
Tana Basin
Chara-Chara weir 32,000 At the outlet
(Lake Tana) of the Lake
Tana
Koga Dam & 170.5 7,000
Irrigation
Tis-Abbay I and II 84 Currently,
Hydropower these plants
are operated
as standby
Beles Basin
Beles Hydropower 460
Total 7,000 460

3. Irrigation and Hydropower Development Potential

In the Tana basin there is a total irrigation potential of 114,000ha. Out of which 69,350ha can be
irrigated by gravity by constructing 6 dams throughout the basin. The rest, 44650ha is planned to
develop by pumping water from the Lake. From one of the six reservoirs, Megetch reservoir, in the

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Tana basin, it is proposed to pump water for Gonder Town water supply located outside the basin.
The Gonder town is located in Tekeze (Atbara) basin and has a total demand of 30.3mcm/year.

In the Beles basin, there is an irrigation potential of 139,000ha. (Upper Beles 54,000 ha and Lower
Beles 85,000 ha). Dangur multipurpose reservoir is identified in the middle reaches of the basin to
generate an installed capacity of 168mw and to irrigate the Lower Beles irrigation scheme,
85000ha. The upper Beles scheme will be irrigated from water that is used to generate power at
Beles hydropower.

Table 3.1: Potential Developments in the Tana-Beles Basin

Storage Irrigable Installed Remark

Capacity, area, ha Capacity,
mcm mw
Tana Basin
Megetch Dam & Irrigation 181.8 7,311
Ribb Dam & irrigation 233.7 18,700
Gilgel Abbay dam & Irrigation 365.8 14,552
Jema dam &Irrigation 124.1 7,786
Gumara & irrigation 223 14,000
All Lake Tana pumping 44,650
Irrigation
Gonder Town water supply Pumping from
Megetch dam,
30.3mcm/year
Beles Basin
Upper Beles Irrigation 54,000
Dangur Hydropower 168
Lower Beles Irrigation 85,000
Total 246,000 168

4. Data availability

There are about 28 flow gauging stations in the Tana-Beles basin. Some of these stations are
operated for a short time while others have long record. The oldest stations are established in
1959. The total gauged area in the Tana basin is about 42%, whereas in the Beles basin some 29% is
gauged.

In the 1998, the Abbay (Blue Nile) Integrated Development Master Plan studies, hydro
meteorological data on the key stations are available. These data are quality checked and gap-filled
where necessary. Data on the identified dams, irrigation schemes and hydropower plants are also
available in the study.

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In 2008, SMEC has conducted Hydrological study of the Tana-Beles Sub-basins. In the study detailed
hydro meteorological data analyses have been carried out. Data have been quality checked gap-
filled and extended to a common period of 1960-2005. Runoff depths for 15 sub-catchments in the
study area have been estimated. These data have been directly used in the present pilot
application case study.

After the completion of the Master Plan study, Feasibility and detailed design studies have been
conducted on some of the identified irrigation and Hydropower projects. These reports have been
used for the technical data of individual development projects.

5. Objective

The Objective of the pilot case is to address the following Key questions:

• What will be the impact of irrigation development in the Tana basin on the Beles
Hydropower generation?
• By how much the Lake level is reduced, and what would be the impacts on the
navigational use of Lake Tana?
• What will be the change in Beles flow in to Blue Nile?
• Impact on Lake Fish production*
• Reduction in flooding areas/flood damage due to reservoirs in the Tana basin*
• Tradeoff between power generation and irrigation developments in Tana-Beles
basins*
• Reduction in sediment inflow to Lake Tana*
• Change in Lake water quality*

Note: Objectives with asterisk (*), cannot be addressed with the current first release
of NDSS, and shall be addressed in the coming releases.

To address the above key questions using the first release of Nile DSS, the following key indicators
are used:
• Time series of hydropower generation
• Time series of lake water level
• Amount of irrigation water abstracted and deficiency
• Time series of Beles flow at the confluence with Blue Nile

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6. Scenario Definition

As seen from above, considering the large number of potential development projects, a different
combination of scenarios could be developed in order to assess the impact of individual projects on
the downstream projects. Currently the identified potential projects are at various levels of studies
and some are under implementation. To compare and analyze different development options,
three scenarios are considered based on the study and implementation level of individual projects
as medium, short and long term development. The number of scenarios and sequences of
developments could vary as required by planners and decision makers in the future. The scenarios
considered are:
1. SC-0: Baseline scenario : Chara-Chara Weir, Beles Hydropower with Tana Beles transfer
tunnel (460mw), Koga Dam with 7,000 ha. Irrigation Development.
2. SC-1: SC-0 plus Megetch dam and Irrigation(7,311 ha), Ribb dam and irrigation (18,700 ha),
Gondar town water supply from Megetch reservoir, Upper Beles Irrigation (54,000 ha).
3. SC-2: SC-1 plus Gilgel-Abbay dam and Irrigation (14,552 ha), Jema dam and Irrigation (7,786
ha), Gumara dam and irrigation (14,000 ha), Dangur dam Hydropower (168mw) &Lower
Beles Irrigation (85,000 ha)
4. SC-3: SC-2 plus Lake Tana Pumping , total irrigation (44,650 ha), scattered around the lake .

Table 6.1 shows the name and size of development projects in each scenario.

Table 6.1: Development Intervention Scenarios

Scenario 0 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

SC-0 SC-1 SC-2 SC-3
Development Interventions
Baseline Medium scale Large scale Full scale
(Existing) development development development

Chara-Chara weir X X X X

Beles Hydropower (460MW) X X X X

Koga Dam & Irrigation (7,000ha) X X X X

Megetch Dam & Irrigation

-- X X X
(7,311ha)

Ribb Dam and irrigation (18,700ha) -- X X X

Upper Beles Irrigation(54,000ha) -- X X X

Gonder Town Water supply

-- X X X
(30.3mcm/year)

Gilgel Abbay dam & Irrigation

-- -- X X
(14,552ha)

Jema dam and Irrigation (7,786ha) -- -- X X

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Gumara dam & irrigation
-- -- X X
(14,000ha)

Dangur Hydropower (168MW) -- -- X X

Lower Beles Irrigation(85,000ha) -- -- X X

Lake Tana pumping Irrigation

-- -- -- X
(44,650ha)

Total

Irrigation, ha 7,000 87,011 208,349 253,000

Hydropower, mw 460 460 628 628

Gonder Town water supply,

-- 30.3 30.3 30.3
mcm/year

7. Model Setup and Calibration

To carry out the modeling work, the Tana-Beles basin has been delineated in to sub-catchments
using 90-meter grid DEM. The basin is delineated in to 20 sub-catchments including 9 dam
catchments. The Lake is modeled as a reservoir using Chara-Chara weir as a dam controlling the
outflow of the lake. The delineated sub-catchments are shown in fig. 7.1.

Prior to scenarios investigation, the model is calibrated using the available 46 years of data from
1960-2005. The objective of the calibration is to capture the variation of the lake level during the
simulation period. In this study no rainfall-runoff modeling carried out. The calibrated input
parameters are; aerial rainfall on and evaporation from the lake. These two inputs are the most
uncertain as their spatial variation over the lake is significant. Moreover, the available evaporation
data are mean monthly values, which can not represent the actual evaporation from the lake
considering the large area of the lake and inter-annual variation of evaporation. Hence, by
adjusting the rainfall and evaporation data, keeping the outflow from the lake as observed, the
model is calibrated until a good match between observed and simulated levels are obtained.
During calibration the Beles Hydropower, (transfer of water from the lake) and Koga dam and
irrigation were not considered since they were not exist. During calibration, to avoid spill the
Chara-Chara weir, the flood control level is set very high as the observed outflow from the lake
includes total release. In calibrating the model emphasis has been given to match the simulated
minimum lake levels with the corresponding observed minimum levels. This is because; one of the
objectives is to assess the impact on the lake level reduction due to u/s developments. The
minimum lake level observed in the period 1960-2005 is 1784.36 and the simulated level at this
time is 1784.37. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency is 0.74. The model setup and the simulated and
observed levels are shown fig. 7.2 and 7.3 respectively.

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In modeling the scenarios, the minimum environmental release from the lake, including to Tis-Issat
falls, kept on the average as 17m3/s (a minimum of 10 in dry months and higher in wet months).

Fig. 7.1: Sub-catchment Delineation in Tana-Beles Basin

Fig. 7.2: Model Setup in Mike Basin

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 Figure 7.3: Observed and Simulated Lake Tana Level

1788

S 1787.5
i
m 1787
u
l
a
1786.5
t
e 1786 R² = 0.74
d
1785.5
L
e
v
1785
e
l 1784.5

1784
1784 1784.5 1785 1785.5 1786 1786.5 1787 1787.5 1788
Observed Level

Figure 7.4: Scattered Diagram of Observed and Simulated Lake Level

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8. Results
8.1 Impact on Beles Hydropower Generation

The impact of irrigation development in the Tana basin on the Beles Hydropower generation is
insignificant in the medium scale development scenario, SC-1. In this scenario, the average power
generation during the 46 years of simulation is reduced by 8 MW. In the large and full
development scenarios, SC-2 & SC-3, the average power generation is reduced by 21 and 46 MW
respectively. In full development scenario, the Beles HP can hardly generate power at all for
about 10% of the simulation period as the lake level drops below the minimum operating level of
1784. Hence, the impact on the Beles HP is very significant in full development scenario, SC-3. The
mean monthly power generation at Beles hydropower is shown in fig. 8.1.

350

300

250
Average generated Power, MW

200

150

100

50

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Baseline scenario
Time, months
Scenario-1 Scenario-2 Scenario-3

Figure 8.1: Mean Monthly Generated power at Beles Hydropower Plant

Table 8.1: Beles Generated Power under different Scenarios

Time
Maximum
Scenario Unit weighted
value
average value

Generated power_SC-0 mwatt 460 236.8

Generated power_SC-1 mwatt 460 228.9

Generated power_SC-2 mwatt 460 215.7
Generated power_SC-3 mwatt 460 191.2

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In the baseline scenario, the Beles hydropower can generate 425mw for 90 % of the time. As can
be seen from the generated power duration curve, fig. 8.2, in scenarios SC-1, SC-2 and Sc-3, this
amount is reduced to 410, 390 and 350 mw respectively.

Figure 8.2: Beles Generated Power Duration Curve

8.2 Impact on Lake Level and Navigation

In the simulation period of 1960-2005, the minimum lake level in the base line scenario is
1783.89masl. As expected, during these periods the lake level was further drops with increment of
development, and at full development the minimum Lake level drops to 1783.46 masl. The plot and
basic statistics of lake levels for all scenarios are given in fig 8.3 and table 8.2 respectively.

In the medium (SC-1) and large (SC-2) scale development scenarios, the variation of the lake level is
within the designed range of 1784 and 1787 in almost all the time, except in the long dry years of
1980s. But in full scale development (SC-3), the level drops below the minimum operating level of
1984 for about 10% of the time, see fig 8.4

According to Lake Tana Transport Enterprise, the minimum lake level requires for navigation is
1784.75. However, as seen from the results, even in the baseline scenario, the lake level is drops
below 1784.75 for about 5% of the time. The situation becomes worse as the level of development

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increases. In full development, the level drops below 1784.75 for about 40% of the time. Hence,
the impact of irrigation development on Lake Tana Navigation is significant with the current
navigation facilities.

Table 8.2: Tana Lake Levels under different scenario

Lake Level, masl

Scenario
Maximum Minimum Median

Tana_WL_SC0 1787.00 1783.87 1785.90

Tana_WL_SC1 1787.00 1783.76 1785.73
Tana_WL_SC2 1787.00 1783.57 1785.41
Tana_WL_SC3 1787.00 1783.46 1784.99

Figure 8.3: Plot of Lake Tana Levels under different scenarios

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 Figure 8.4: Lake Tana Level Duration Curves

8.3 Impact on Beles outflow to Blue Nile

The Beles river outflow to Blue Nile is reduced from the current 7,723mcm to 5,903mcm at full
development. i.e ., the flow will reduce by 1,819mcm or 18.2%

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 400

350
MAF: Baseline: 244.9 m3/s
300 (7723mcm)

250
Discharge, m3/s

200

150

100 MAF:SC-3 (Full Development):

187.2 m3/s (5903 mcm)

50
Scenario 3 Baseline

0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Time, Years

Figure--: Mean Annual Flow of Beles River at the Confluence with Blue Nile.

8.4 Aggregated Results

Table 8.3: Aggregated Results

Indicators Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Beles average generated 236.8 228.9 215.7 191.2

Power (mega watt)

Lake Tana Water Minimum 1783.87 1783.76 1783.57 1783.46

Level (masl)
Maximum 1787 1787 1787 1787
Median 1785.9 1785.73 1785.41 1784.99
Percentage of Time Lake level 7.2 11.9 23.3 39.6
drops below
1784.75(minimum level for
safe navigation)
Percentage of Time Lake level 0.4 0.5 4 9.8
drops below 1784 (minimum
operating level for HP)

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 Reliability of Gonder town -- 88.2 88.2 88.2
water supply (%)
Beles River outflow to Blue 7723 7152 6162 5903
Nile, (mcm)
Reliability of Upper Beles -- 99.6 96.7 91.3
Irrigation water supply

9. Key messages

• In the medium scale irrigation development in the Tana Basin, SC-1, (33000ha) the lake
level in almost all the time remain above 1784 masl.

• In the large scale development scenario, SC-2 (69350 ha. In L. Tana basin), the Lake level
drops below the designed minimum operation level of 1784, for about 4% of the time. But
in full scale development the level drops for about 10% of the simulation period.

• The impact on the Beles Hydropower generation is insignificant in the medium scale
developments, SC-1. The average power generation is reduced by 8 MW.

• In medium and full scale development scenarios, SC-2 & SC-3, there is significant impact on
the Beles hydropower generation; the average annual power generation drops to 216 and
191 mw respectively from the current 237 mw.

• The optimum lake level require to navigate Lake Tana is 1784.75. However, even in the
baseline scenario, the lake level drops below this level for about 5 % of the time. In
medium, large and full scale developments, the level drops below 1784.75 for about 12%,
23% and 40% of the time respectively. Hence, at full scale development impact on L.Tana
navigation is significant with the current navigation facilities.

10. Expansion with subsequent release of the NB-DSS:

The following key questions will be addressed in the coming releases of NB-DSS:

• What will be the impact on Lake Fish production?

• What will be the reduction in the flooding areas/flood damage in the Tana basin
• What are the tradeoffs between hydropower and irrigation developments,
• What will be the change in sediment inflow to Lake Tana
• What will be the change in Lake Water quality?

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References

1. Abbay River Basin Integrated Development Master Study; BCEOM 1998

2. Hydrological Study of Tana-Beles Sub-Basins, SMEC, 2008
3. Lake Tana Sub-Basin, Four Dams Project; Gilgel Abbay Dam Project; WWDSE, Tahl, 2010
4. Megetch Feasibility and Design Report, WWDSE, Tahl, 2009
5. Jema Feasibility and Design Report, WWDSE, Tahl, 2009
6. Birr and Koga Irrigation Project, Feasibility study. Acres International, 1995

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