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CMTH 380 TEST 2, Summer 2022 Duration: 3 hours +30 min: from 6.pm to 9.30 pm
Test must be submitted by 9.30 pm

Last Name _____________________________ First Name: ___________________________

Student ID Number _________________________ Total mark: 50

Report probabilities as common fractions or as decimal fractions with four digits after decimal point.
1. (3 marks)
It is known that 20% of female students at certain school wear a ring, 30% of female students
at this school wear a necklace, and 10% of female students wear both a ring and a necklace.
a. The probability that a randomly selected female student at this school wears a ring or a

necklace or both is ______________.

b. The probability that a randomly selected female student at this school wears a ring given

that this student wears a necklace is________________ .

c. The probability that a randomly selected female student at this school wears a necklace

given that this student wears a ring is_________________.

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2. (3 marks)
A fire alarm system inside an office building has two types of activation devices, A and B,
which operate independently.
Probability that device A is turned on in the case of a fire is 0.97.
Probability that device B is turned on in the case of a fire is 0.85.
When there is a fire, the fire alarm system is turned on when at least one of two activation
devices is turned on.
a. Probability that both devices are turned on in the case of a fire is_____________

b. Probability that the fire alarm system is turned on in the case of a fire is _____________

c. Probability that the fire alarm system is not turned on in the case of a fire is __________

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 3. (3 marks)
It’s known that 60 % of restaurant customers add ketchup to their meat dish and 50 % of
restaurant customers add mustard to their meat dish. It’s also known that 70% of restaurant
customers add at least one of two ingredients to their meat dish.
a. The probability that randomly selected restaurant customer adds both ingredients (ketchup

and mustard) to their meat dish is _____________.

b. If it’s known that one particular restaurant customer adds ketchup to meat dish, then

probability that this customer adds mustard to the meat dish is ________________.

c. Can we say that the events of adding ketchup to the meat dish and the event of adding
mustard to the meat dish by the same randomly selected customer are independent events?

Answer Yes or No. _____________________

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4. (2 + 2 = 4marks)
Suppose that a coin is tossed three times. We assume that a coin is fair, so that the heads and
tails are equally likely.
a. Probability that two heads are obtained in three tosses given that at least one head is

obtained in three tosses is ___________

b. Probability that that three heads are obtained in three tosses, given that the head was

obtained on the first toss is ____________.

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5. (3 marks)
A box contains 4 defective and 2 good parts.
Two parts are selected from the box (without replacement), and it is recorded whether the
selected part is defective or good.

a. The probability that the first selected part is defective and the second selected part is good is

_____________

b. The probability that one good part and one defective part are selected is__________________

c. The probability that both defective parts are selected is _____________________

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 6. (1 + 1 = 2 marks)
The company has two machines that produce certain items. Machine 1 produces 30 % of the
the items, and machine 2 produces 70% of the items.
Machine 1 produces 2% of defective items and machine 2 produces 4% of defective items.
a. The probability that a randomly selected produced item is defective is

_________
b. If a randomly selected item is found to be defective, probability that it is produced on

machine 1 is___________

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 7. (2 + 2 = 4 marks)
It’s known that 3 % of people in a certain population have the disease (and 97% do not have
the disease).
A blood test gives a positive result (indicating the presence of disease) in 90% of cases when
the person has the disease, and in 5% of cases when the person does not have a decease.
One person is chosen at random from population and is tested.
a. Probability that the test gives the positive result for this person is ____________________.

b. If the test result is positive for this person, then the probability that this person actually has

the disease is ______

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8. (3 marks)
Mr. Brown wants to insure his property. In the case of a damage to the property, the insurance
company has to pay $ 200, 000 to Mr. Brown.

The probability of a damage to the property in the next year is estimated as 0.05.
The insurance company wants the expected gain to be $ 3000.

The yearly premium Mr. Brown is supposed to pay to the insurance company is equal to

$ _____________

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9. (1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 4 marks)
New surgical operation is successful 60 % of times.
During last week the operation was performed five times. The results of five operations are
assumed to be independent of one another.
a. The probability that all five operations were successful is _______

b. The probability that at least one operation was successful is _______

c. The probability that at least two operations were successful is __________

d. The variance of the number of successful operations during last week is ________.

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10.(1 + 2 + 1 = 4 marks)
A case of wine has eight bottles, two of which contain spoiled wine. Three bottles are
randomly selected from the case.
a. The probability that there will be no bottles of spoiled wine in the sample of 3 selected
bottles is___________.
b. The probability that the sample of 3 selected bottles contains two bottles of spoiled wine is

__________.
c. The mean number of bottles of spoiled wine in the sample of 3 bottles is___________.

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 11.(1 + 2 + 3 marks)
The number of people entering the intensive care unit of a hospital follows Poisson distribution
with the average rate of five people per day.
a. The probability that three people will enter intensive care unit on one particular day is

_________
b. The probability that at least one person will enter intensive care unit during first half of a
particular day is

________________

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12. (2 + 2 + 2 = 6 marks)
The lifetime of a certain brand of lightbulbs is normally distributed with the mean of 3800 hours
and standard deviation of 250 hours.
a. The probability that randomly selected lightbulb will have lifetime more than 3500 hours is

_________.
b. The percent of lightbulbs which have the lifetime between 3500 and 4200 hours is ___________.
c. What lifetime should the manufacturer advertise for these lightbulbs if he assumes that 10%
of lightbulbs with the smallest lifetimes will burn out by that time?

Advertised time is _________________ hours.

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13. (2+ 2 = 4 marks)
In a certain population, 20% of the people have minor eye defect. A sample of 150 people is
selected at random from this population.
a. The mean number of people with minor eye defect in the sample is ________________.
The standard deviation of the number of people with minor eye defect in the sample is

_____________________ (leave three digits after decimal point)

b. If you use normal approximation to binomial and take continuity correction factor into
account, then probability that 35 or more people (at least 35 people) in the sample have
minor eye defect is

___________

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14. (1 + 1 + 2 = 4 marks)
The time between successive arrivals of calls to emergency service is random variable which
follows exponential distribution. It was observed that on average calls arrive to emergency
service every four minutes (1 / λ = 4 min ) and average number of calls in one minute is
0.25 calls
λ= .
1min
a. The probability that the time between successive calls is less than 2 minutes is__________

b. The probability that the time between successive calls is more than 3 minutes is

__________.

c. The probability that the time between successive calls is between 6 and 8 minutes is

_________________

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