ASSIGNMENT#5 (Probability)

Q#1:- It is estimated by an insurance company that 90% of total population of age 40--50
years has good health. Using tree diagram finds the probability that: (i) Non (ii) Only
One (iii) Two (iv) All have good health if 3 persons of such age bracket are selected
at random.
Q#2:- (a) In a learning experiment, a subject attempts a certain task twice in a row. Each
time his chance of failure is 0.40. Draw the probability tree, and then calculate the
chance of exactly one failure.
(b) Repeat part (a) if the subject attempts his task once more, for a total of three tries.
Q#3:- The manager of a small hardware store buys electric clocks in cartons of 12 clocks
each. To see whether each carton is acceptable, 3 clocks are randomly selected and
thoroughly tested. If all 3 are of acceptable quality, then the carton of 12 is accepted.
Suppose in a certain carton, unknown to the hardware manager only 8 of the 12 are of
acceptable quality. What is the chance that the sampling scheme will inadvertently
accept the carton?
Q#4:- The probability that Ali passes Mathematics is 2/3, and the probability that he passes
English is 4/9. If the probability of passing both courses is 1/4, what is the probability
that Ali will pass at least one of these courses?
Q#5:- The chance that a factory’s sprinkler system will fail is 20%; the chance that its alarm
system will fail is 10%; and the chance that both will fail is 4%. What is the chance
that:
(a) At least one system fail (b) Both work (c) At least one will work.

Q#6:- Three defective light bulbs inadvertently got mixed with 6 good ones. If 2 bulbs are
chosen at random for a ceiling lamp, what is the probability that they both are good?
Q#7:- Of six cars produced at a particular factory between 8 and 10 A.M. last Monday
morning, test runs revealed three of them to be “Toyota.” Nevertheless, three of the six
cars were shipped to dealer A and the other three to dealer B. Dealer A received all
three Toyota. What is the probability of this event occurring if, in fact, the three cars
shipped to dealer A were selected at random from the six produced?

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Q#8:- The probability that a regularly scheduled flight depart in time is 0.83, the probability
that it arrives in time is 0.92 and the probability that it departs and arrives in time is
0.78. Find the probability that a plane (i) arrives in time given that it departed in time.
(ii) Depart in time given that it arrived in time.

Q#9:- In a firm 20 percent of the employees having accounting background, while 5 percent
of the employees are executives and having accounting background. If an employee has
an accounting background, what is the probability that the employee is an executive?

Q#10:- The table below

Employment Sex
shows the percentages
Status ↓ M(male) F(female) Totals
of the labor force,
E(employed) 51.9% 40.9% 92.8%
classified by Sex and
U( unemployed) 3.9% 3.3% 7.2%
employment status
Totals 55.8% 44.2 100%

a. What is the unemployment rate? That is, what is P(U), the chance that a worker drawn
at random will be unemployed?
b. What is P(U|M)? What is this called?
c. What is P(U|F)? What is this called?

Q#11:- The population was classified as male

Satisfied Dissatisfied
or female, and as Satisfy or Dissatisfy
Male 0.27 0.21
form the job. The proportions in each
Female 0.24 0.28
category were approximately as follows:
What is the probability that an individual drawn at random would be:
a. In favor of job satisfaction?
b. In favor of job satisfaction if male?
c. In favor of job satisfaction if female?

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Q#12:- The population, broken down by Sex and completion of a certain work in time. The
proportions in each category were
Complete Donot
approximately as follows: What is the
work in complete
probability that an individual drawn at
time work in time
random would
M(male) 7.8% 22.2%
a. Complete his work in time?
F(female) 18.2% 51.8%
b. Complete his work in time if male?
c. Complete her work in time if female?
d. Is Complete work in time is independent of Male?

Q#13:- The table below

Age
classifies the 115.5
Employment Y(young, O(older, 25 Totals
million civilians in the
Status ↓ under 25) and over) million
1985 U.S. labor force
by age and E(employed) 20.4 86.8 107.2

employment status: U( unemployed) 3.2 5.1 8.3

Totals (million) 23.6 91.9 115.5

a. What is P(U), the probability that a worker drawn at random will be unemployed?
That is, find the unemployment rate.
b. What is P(U|Y)?
c. Is unemployment independent of age?

Q#14:- A batch of 50 computers is known to have 6% defective. If 5 computers are chosen at

random are tested. What is the Probability that: (i) Non of them will be defective?
(ii) Exactly two will be defective? (iii)At least two will be defective?
Q#15:- Two missiles are fired at a target. The probability that the first missile hit the target is
0.8 and the chance the second missile hit the target is 0.7; the chance that both missiles
hit the target is 0.5. What is the probability that: (i) At least one missile hit the target?
(ii) Both missiles do not hit the target? (iii) At least one missile does not hit the target.

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 ASSIGNMENT #6 (Binomial distributions)
Q#1:- In a desperate gamble, Wildcat Oil Exploration has committed all its remaining funds
to finance a sequence of 12 drillings. Each drilling in this region has a 20% chance of
successfully producing oil, independent of the other drillings. To avoid bankruptcy,
three or more drillings must produce oil. What is the chance of this?

Q#2:- Suppose a warship takes 10 shots at a target, and it takes at least 4 hits to sink it. If the
warship has a record of hitting with 20% of its shots in the long run, what is the chance
of sinking the target?

Q#3:- If the probability of getting caught copying someone else’s exam is 0.2, find the
probability of not getting caught in 3 attempts. Assume independence.

Q#4:- If 60% of the voters in a large district prefer candidate A, what is the probability that in
a sample of 12 voters exactly 7 will prefer A?

Q#5:- The probability that a patient recovers from a delicate heart operation is 0.9. What is
the probability that exactly five of the next 7 patients having this operation survive?

Q#6:- The incidence of occupational disease in an industry is such that workmen have a 20%
chance of suffering from it. What is the probability that out of 6 workmen:
(i) Not more than 2. (ii) 4 or more will catch the disease.

Q#7:- An insurance salesman sells policies to 5 men, all of identical age and in good health.
According to the actuarial tables, the probability that a man of this particular age will
be alive 30 years hence is 2/3. Find the probability that in 30 years:
(i) all men (ii) at least 3 men (iii) only two men (iv) at most one
man will be alive.

Q#8:- A multiple-choice quiz has 15 questions, each with 4 possible answers of which only 1
is the correct answer. What is the probability that sheer guess work yields from 5 to 10
correct answers?

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Q#9:- A commuter drives to work each morning. The route she takes each day includes ten
stoplights. Assume the probability each stoplight is red when she gets to it, is 0.2 and
that these stoplights (trials) are independent. What is the distribution for X, the number
of times she must stop for a red light on her way to work? Evaluate P(X=0) and
P(X≤ 5).

Q#10:- Using the binomial distribution, find the probability of

(i) 3 successes in 8 trials when p=0.4,

(ii) 2 failures in 6 trials when p=0.6,

(iii) 2 or fewer successes in 9 trials when p=0.4.

Q#11 (i):- In a binomial distribution, the mean and the standard deviation were found to be 36
and 4.8 respectively. Find p and n.
(ii):- Is it possible to have a binomial distribution with mean =5 and standard deviation = 3?

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 ASSIGNMENT #7 (Poisson distributions)
Q#1:- The probability that a person dies when he contracts a respiratory infection is 0.002. Of
the next 2000 so infected, what is the mean number that will die?
Q#2:- The number of customers arriving per hour at a certain automobile service facility is
assumed to follow a Poisson distribution with mean λ=7.
(a) Compute the probability that more than 10 customers will arrive in a 2-hour period.
(b) What is the mean number of arrivals during a 2-hour period?

Q#3:- An automobile manufacturer is concerned about a fault in the braking mechanism of a

particular model. The fault can on rare occasions cause a catastrophe at high speed.
Assume that the distribution of the number of cars per year that will experience the
fault is a Poisson random variable with λ=5.
(a) What is the probability that, at most, 3 cars per year will experience a catastrophe?
(b) What is the probability that more than 1 car per year will experience a catastrophe?

Q#4:- Suppose that; on average, 1 person in 1000 makes a numerical error in preparing his or
her income tax return. If 10,000 forms are selected at random and examined then find
the probability that 6, 7, or 8 of the forms contain an error.
Q#5:- Ten percent of the tools produced in a certain manufacturing process turn out to be
defective. Find the probability that in a sample of 10 tools chosen at random, exactly
two will be defective by using:
(i) The Binomial Distribution
(ii) The Poisson approximation to the Binomial distribution.

Q#6:- Suppose that the number of insurance claims closely approximates a Poisson
distribution with λ=0.05. Find the probability: (i) No claim (ii) 1 or fewer
claims
Q#7:- A car hire firm has 2 cars, which it hires out day by day. The number of demands for a
car on each day is distributed as a Poisson distribution with parameter 1.5. Calculate
the proportion of days on which neither car is used, and the proportion of days on
which some demand is refused.

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Q#8:- A manufacturer of cotter pins has known that 5% of his product is defective. If he sells
cotter pins in boxes of 100, and guarantees that not more than 4 pins will be defective,
what is the approximate probability that a box will fail to meet the guaranteed quality?

Q#9:- Criticizes the following statements:

(a) “The mean of a Poisson distribution is 5 while its standard deviation is4.’

(b) In a Poisson distribution the first two frequencies were 250 and 160. Find the
frequencies of the next two values of the variable.

(c) A life insurance salesman sells on the average 3 life insurance policies per week, what
is the value of λ? For the same statement if there are 5 working days per week then
what will be the value of λ for any working day?

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 ASSIGNMENT #8 (Poisson distributions)
Q#1:- An industrial engineering class has studied the number of customers who drop off
prescriptions at the outpatient pharmacy of a major teaching hospital. From their study,
this pharmacy averages 20 customers an hour. Consider a randomly selected hour of
operation.
(a) Find the probability that exactly 10 customers drop off prescriptions.

(b) Find the probability that exactly 20 customers drop off prescriptions.

(c) Find the expected number of customers, the variance, and the standard deviation.

Q#2:- If we reduce the data on the times between industrial accidents to the number of
accidents each month, then we can well model the data by a Poisson distribution with
an accident rate of 1.5 per month.
(a) Find the probability that no accidents occur in a given month.

(b) Find the probability that at least one accident occurs in a given month.

(c) Historically, DuPont management has placed the highest priority on safety and
typically will reassign any plant manager whose facility has an excessive number of
accidents. Suppose that management begins to consider reassignment when a facility
has five accidents in a month. Find the probability that this facility has exactly five
accidents in a given month.

(d) Find the mean number of accidents per month, the variance, and the standard deviation.

Q#3:- Nelson (1987) discusses a process that historically has averaged 2.6 flaws per 1000-m
length of wire.
(a) Find the probability that a 1000-m length of wire has one or fewer flaws.

(b) Find the probability that a 1000-m length of wire has more than two flaws.

(c) Find the mean number of flaws per 1000-m length of wire, the variance, and the
standard deviation.

(d) Consider a 500-m length of wire.

i. Find the probability that it has no flaws.

ii. Find the expected number of flaws, the variance, and the standard deviation.

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Q#4:- Kalbfleisch, Lawless, and Robinson (1991) modeled the number of warranty claims
within one year of purchase for a particular system on a single car model with a Poisson
distribution and a rate of 0.75 claims per vehicle. Consider a randomly selected
automobile.
(a) Find the probability that this automobile has no claims within one year.

(b) Find the probability that this automobile has exactly three claims within one year.

(c) Find the expected number of claims, the variance, and the standard deviation.

Q#5:- The manufacture of silicon wafers used in integrated circuits requires the removal of
contaminating particles of a certain size. Yashchin (1995) studied a rinsing process for
these wafers. This process rinses batches of 20 wafers with deionized water. The
process then dries these wafers by spinning off the water droplets. Prior to loading the
wafers in the rinser/dryer, production personnel count the number of contaminating
particles. This count provides feedback on the cleanliness of the manufacturing
environment. The counts are well modeled by a Poisson distribution with a rate of six
particles per wafer. Consider a randomly selected wafer.
(a) Find the probability that this wafer has at least one particle.

(b) Find the probability that this wafer has exactly six particles.

(c) Find the expected number of particles, the variance, and the standard deviation.

Q#6:- A textile mill manager who is studying the number of accidents at a busy intersection
has determined that accidents occur at the rate of 2.5 per month.
(a) Find the probability that none occur in a given month.

(b) Find the probability that more than one occurs in a given month

(c) Find the population mean, the population variance, and the population standard
deviation for the number of accidents in a given month.

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Q#7:- A clothing store chain has hired an industrial engineer to study the buying habits of its
customers. After a period of study, she had concluded that 30% of the customers who
enter the store actually buy something.
(a) What is the probability that the fifth customer who enters the store is the first to buy
something?

(b) What is the probability that the first customer who enters the store buys something?

(c) Find the expected number of customers until someone buys something, the variance,
and the standard deviation.

Q#8:- A major automobile manufacturing company is known to average five defects per car.
Consider the next car made.
(a) Find the probability that it has exactly seven defects.

(b) Find the population mean, the population variance, and the population standard
deviation for the number of defects.

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 ASSIGNMENT#9 (Normal Distribution)
Q#1:- A bank calculates that its individual saving accounts are normally distributed with a
mean of $2000 and a standard deviation of $600. If the bank takes a random sample of
100 accounts, what is the probability that the sample mean will lie between $1900 and
$ 2050?
Q#2:- The mean and standard deviation for the distribution of annual earning of all bank
tellers with five years’ experience are $ 1900 and $ 2000 respectively. If we draw a
random sample of 30 tellers, what is the probability that their earnings will average
more than $ 1975 annually?

Q#3:- An oil refinery has backup monitors to keep track of the refinery flows continuously
and to prevent machine malfunctions from disrupting the process. One particular
monitor has an average life of 4300 hours and a standard deviation of 730 hours. In
addition to the primary monitor, the refinery has set up two standby units, which are
duplicates of the primary one. In the case of malfunction of one of the monitors,
another will automatically take over in its place. The operating life of each monitor is
independent of the others.
(a):- What is the probability that a given set of monitors will last at least 13000 hours?
(b):- At most 12630 hours?

Q#4:- Mr. Ali, whose job is predicting the future for venture capital company, has just
received the statistics describing his company’s performance on 1800 investments last
year. Ali knows that, in general, investments generate profits that have a normal
distribution with mean $ 7500 and standard deviation $3300. Even before he looked at
the specific results from each of the 1800 investments from last year, Ali was able to
make some accurate predictions by using his knowledge of sampling distributions.
Follow his analysis by finding the probability that the sample mean of last year’s
investments
(a):- Exceeded $ 7700.
(b):- Was less than $ 7400.
(c):- Was greater than $ 7275, but less than $ 7650.

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Q#5:- Farmer Braun, who sells grain to Germany, owns 60 acres of wheat fields. Based on
past experience, he knows that the yield from each individual acre is normally
distributed with mean 120 bushels and standard deviation 12 bushels. Help Farmer
Braun plan for his next year’s crop by finding.
(a):- The expected mean of the yields from Farmer Braun’s 60 acres of wheat.
(b):- The standard error of mean of the yield from Farmer Braun’s 60 acres.
(c):- The probability that the mean yield per acre will exceed 123.8 bushels.
(d):- The probability that the mean yield per acre will fall between 117 and 122 bushels.

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 ASSIGNMENT #10 (Normal Distribution)
Q#1:- A major titanium dioxide (white pigment) facility uses two production lines, each with
a nominal designed capacity of 300 tons per day. Typically, engineers “overdesign” a
chemical facility, which means that both of these lines can actually produce somewhat
more than 300 tons on given days. Historically, the total daily production of this facility
approximately follows a normal distribution with a mean of 500 tons and a standard
deviation of 50 tons. A corporate management really would like to know the probability
that this facility will exceed its nominal total capacity of 600 tons on any given day.
Also the production superintendent wants to know the probability that the “typical”
performance is between 480 and 520 tons. Please help it to find the probability.

Q#2:- Wasserman and Wadsworth (1989) discuss a process for manufacturing steel bolts that
continuously feed an assembly line downstream. Historically, the thicknesses of these
bolts follow a normal distribution with a mean of 10.0 mm and a standard deviation of
1.6 mm. process supervision becomes concerned about the process if the thicknesses
begin to get larger than 10.8 mm or smaller than 9.2 mm. Assume that the current
process mean is 10.0 mm, and consider a randomly selected bolt.
(a) Find the probability that the thickness of this bolt is between 9.2 to 10.8 mm.

(b) Find the probability that the thickness of this bolt is smaller than 9.2 mm.

Q#3:- Canning (1993) studied the performance of a new photolithography process. This
process deposits layers of material on silicon wafers. The thicknesses of one of the
layers deposited followed a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 0.057.
Since all thicknesses were measured relative to the nominal, the mean was 0. The lower
and upper specifications were −0.15 and 0.15, respectively.
(a) Find the probability that any given layer deposited by the new process falls within the
specifications.

(b) Find the value for the mean thickness required to make the probability of exceeding
the upper specification limit be less than 1%.

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Q#4:- Runger and Pignatiello (1991) consider a plastic injection molding process for a part
that has a critical width dimension that follows a normal distribution with a historic
mean of 100 and historic standard deviation of 8. They keenly monitor this process
with limits of 90 and 110. Assume that the mean width is 100, and consider a randomly
selected part.
(a) Find the probability that the width of this part is greater than 110.

(b) Find the probability that the width of this part is smaller than 90.

(c) Runger and Pignatiello also use “warning” limits of 99 and 101 to help monitor this
process. Find the probability that the width is between 99 and 101.

(d) Find the value for the mean thickness required to make the probability of exceeding
101 be less than 10%.
Q#5:- An ethanol-water distillation column historically produces yields that are well modeled
by a normal distribution with a mean of 70 volume percent and a standard deviation of 2.
(a) Find the probability that a yield exceeds 75%.

(b) Find the probability that a yield is between 67% and 73%.

(c) Find the mean yield for this process such that the probability that a yield is below 70%
is less than 0.02.

Q#6:-The volumes delivered by a nominal 20-oz soft drink bottling process follow a normal
distribution with a mean of 20.2 oz and a standard deviation of 0.07.
(a) Find the probability that this process under fills a bottle.

(b) The bottle will overflow if the volume delivered exceeds 20.35 oz. Find the probability
of an overflow.

Q#7:-The daily production of a sulfuric acid process is known to follow a normal distribution
with a mean of 400 tons per day and a variance of 225 tons per day.
(a) Find the probability that today’s production will be between 375 and 425 tons.

(b) Find the probability that today’s production will be less than 360 tons.

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