Reballos Et Al. SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
Reballos Et Al. SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
Reballos Et Al. SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
A.G. Jaramillo1, M.J.C.P. Flores1, J.P. Garcia1, E.A.O. Quines1, M.B. Tatad1,
and C.A.F. Reballos MSc2
1
College of Medical Technology, San Juan de Dios Educational Foundation, Inc.
2
General Education Department, San Juan de Dios Educational Foundation, Inc.
Abstract
Pasay City, in Metro Manila, Philippines, was previously declared under a state of calamity, with
14 barangays in critical areas after COVID cases surged in 2020. At the onset of 2021, it had been the
second largest number of cases; however, the city government declared a 300% rise in cases in February
2021. After the alpha and beta variants spread in March and August 2020, the delta variant spread in the
Philippines in early 2021. Thus, the study aimed to determine the spatial distribution of incidence of
COVID-19 in Pasay City from January to March 2021 and use it as the basis for COVID surveillance of
the city government. This observational study used Pasay City Local Government' City Health Unit
Data, in conjunction with the Department of Health's (DOH's) daily census, in different Pasay City's
Clusters (PCCs). Reports of new cases, recoveries, and deaths between January and March 2021 were
recorded and analyzed. Based on the findings, there was a marked significant increase of new COVID
cases (p<0.0000) in all PCCs from mid-January to mid-March 2021. More than 500 reported new cases
were observed in Leveriza, Dr. EM Lagrosa, and Malibay Clusters. COVID recoveries in all PCCs are
boundless, except in Kalayaan Cluster, with a greater new cases-recoveries ratio. COVID death-related
status was notable. During the study period, more than 100 deaths were reported in most PCCs, except
for Kalayaan, Villamor, and Dona Nena Clusters. Despite the number, underreporting testing backlogs,
delays, and stating errors, as well as invalidating for recoveries and fatalities, could result in
unintentionally low case counts, recoveries, and deaths. Among the PCCs, San Isidro, M. De La Cruz,
and Dr. EM Lagrosa had the highest reported new cases, recoveries, and deaths. Among the rest of the
PCCs, Doña Nena Cluster has the lowest reports. This finding was related to the population size,
mobility, the number of barangays included within the clusters, and the presence of establishments and
transportation hubs. It was found that the overall relative risk for acquiring SARS-COV-2 virus of 0.367
(p<0.05) in February 2021 increased to 0.469 (p<0.05) in March 2021. However, at the end of March
2021, there is no significant difference in the increase of new COVID-19 cases between PCCs, except
between Malibay and San Pablo Clusters (p=0.0408); and Villamor and Kalayaan Clusters (p=0.0046).
Malibay and Villamore were found to have significant increased over San Pablo and Kalayaan,
respectively. Residential structure and population size interplay in the significant difference of increase
in cases over the said PCCs. Both the national and local policy recommendations of hand washing,
social distancing, and the use of face masks and face shields and the research data don't complement. In
order to combat the spread into neighboring PCCs, the city administration should take aggressive and
daring measures intended to stop a sharp rise in the number of COVID cases in the future. Regardless,
the COVID surveillance in Pasay City should demand a reassessment and apply specific interventions
appropriate for the PCCs.