Location via proxy:   [ UP ]  
[Report a bug]   [Manage cookies]                

Ageing Different in Asean

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 29

Session 

3: Using Different Measures of Ageing: Country Case Studies, 25 February 2019,
Expert Group Meeting on Measuring Population Ageing: Bridging Research and Policy, 
25 ‐ 26 February 2019, Mandarin Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand

Ageing in Malaysia
Prof. Dato’ Dr. Tengku Aizan HAMID, DPSK
aizan@upm.edu.my
Director
Malaysian Research Institute on Ageing (MyAgeingTM),
Universiti Putra Malaysia
Content
• Introduction (TFR, Longevity, 
Inter‐state Migration)
• Population Ageing in Malaysia
• Policy & Population Issues
• Conclusion

aizan@upm.edu.my
Geography of Malaysia

• Malaysia is an upper‐middle income country with a GDP of USD 296.4 billion in 2015. Its Gross 
National Income (GNI) per capita ranks 3rd in Southeast Asia after Brunei and Singapore, and 44th 
in the world (World Bank, 2017). It is also the 44th most populous country in the world and ranks 
66th globally in terms of country total area (330,603 km2). 
aizan@upm.edu.my
aizan@upm.edu.my

Malaysia at a Glance, Census 2010 & 2020
2010 2020
Population 27.5 million 33.8 million
Living Quarters 7.3 million 9.9 million

Households 6.4 million 8.2 million

Household Size 4.2 persons 4.1 persons

Administrative District 144 AD 157 AD


Census District 812 CD 1,036 CD
Enumeration Block 74,756 EB 103,524 EB

Source: DOSM, 2018
Total Fertility Rate by Ethnicity, Malaysia, 
1963 ‐ 2016
8.0

7.0

6.0
6.0
5.8
5.6
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 

5.4
5.0 5.2
5.0
4.7
4.6 4.6
4.0 4.3
4.1
3.9 3.9
3.6
3.4 3.4
3.0 3.3
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6
2.5 2.6 2.6
2.4 2.5 2.5
2.0 2.3 2.3 2.2
2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0
1.9 1.9
1.8 1.8 1.8
1.7 1.7
1.5 1.6
1.4 1.5 1.4
1.0 1.3

0.0
1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016
Year
Total Bumiputera Chinese Indian
© MyAgeing TM
• People are living longer 
Increasing Longevity and Malaysians on 
average have a life 
Life Expectancy at Birth and at 60 Years by Ethnicity, Malaysia, 1991 - 2015 expectancy level that is 
similar to other upper 
2015 middle‐income 
Life 1991 2000 2010
(Estimated) countries.
Expectancy
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female • Economic growth and 
At birth public health 
Total 69.2 73.4 70.0 74.7 71.9 76.6 72.5 77.4 development has 
Malay* 68.8 71.9 69.0 73.3 70.7 75.4 71.2 76.1 increased likelihood of 
Chinese 70.7 76.4 72.4 77.6 74.4 79.1 75.1 80.1 persons surviving into 
Indian 64.2 71.4 65.7 73.5 67.6 75.7 67.7 75.8 later life.
At 60 years • An older person aged 60 
Total 16.1 18.1 16.7 19.0 17.9 20.1 18.4 20.9 years old in 2015 can 
Malay* 15.7 16.9 15.9 17.8 17.1 19.4 17.6 20.0 reasonably expect to 
Chinese 16.8 20.2 18.1 21.1 19.1 21.7 19.9 22.8 live for another 17 to 23 
Indian 14.2 17.6 15.2 19.1 16.9 19.8 17.5 20.1
years, depending on 
their gender or 
* Including other Bumiputera ethnicity. 
Source: Department of Statistics (1997; 2002; 2015)
aizan@upm.edu.my

5‐year Inter‐state Net Migrants by State, Malaysia, 
1980 ‐ 2010 Source: NPFDB, 1999, DOSM, 1995, 2006, 2014, 2017

250
200
100 236.9 91.6
220.4
155.3
200 63.6
150
50 44.2
Number in Thousands (‘000)

150
100
100 0.5 2
50
0
50 19.3 ‐0.3 ‐1.4 ‐0.1
‐7.4 3.3
19.9
19.2 ‐12.8
17.8 1.8
0 9.5 ‐19.2 ‐19.4
2.9 7.3 6.7 13.6 3.1 0.2
0 ‐5.3 ‐2.3 ‐2.5 ‐1.1 ‐3.5 ‐5.5
‐50 ‐41 ‐13.9 ‐2.9
‐1 ‐2.1‐10 ‐2.9
‐12.3 ‐28.7 ‐14.4 ‐11.8 ‐17 ‐12.1
‐50 ‐21.8 ‐21 ‐24
‐50 ‐37.7 ‐35.9 ‐41.6
‐51.1 ‐71.1
‐50.9
‐70.2
‐58.8
‐85.4 ‐94.2
‐100
Perlis
Perlis
Perlis

Sarawak

Sarawak
Selangor
Sarawak
Selangor
Terengganu

Selangor
Kedah
Kedah
Kedah

Negeri Sembilan
Negeri Sembilan
Negeri Sembilan

Terengganu

Terengganu

WP Putrajaya
Johor
Johor

Kelantan
Kelantan
Kelantan

Melaka
Melaka
Melaka

Perak
Perak
Perak

Pulau Pinang
Pulau Pinang

Pulau Pinang
Sabah

Sabah

Sabah

WP Kuala Lumpur

WP Kuala Lumpur
WP Labuan

WP Kuala Lumpur
WP Labuan
Pahang
Pahang
Pahang

1986 ‐
1975 ‐
2005 ‐ 1991
1995 ‐ 1980
2010
2000
Population Ageing in Malaysia
Age, Sex, Ethnic & Geographical Differences
Source: 
United Nations, DESA, Population Division. 
WPP: The 2015 Revision. (Medium variant)
• With the fertility and 
Changing Age Structure longevity patterns shown 
earlier, it comes as no 
Population in Malaysia by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2005 & 2015 surprise that the 
2005 2015
Malaysian Chinese are 
Ethnicity ageing faster than other 
0-14 15-59 60+ 0-14 15-59 60+
Number (in Thousands) ‘000 ethnic groups.
Malay & Bumiputera 5,553.5 9,416.4 977.3 5,625.9 10,808.3 1,242.8 • 1 out of 12 Malaysians are 
Chinese 1,551.9 3,953.8 621.6 1,451.5 4,201.0 778.0 an older person in 2015. 
Indian 524.0 1,181.4 114.0 495.9 1,278.6 150.4
Others 115.5 148.7 13.1 94.3 126.5 11.4 • By 2020, it is expected 
Malaysian 7,744.9 14,700.3 1,726.0 7,667.6 16,414.2 2,182.4 that the number of older 
Non-Malaysian 294.4 1,530.6 49.0 154.5 2,103.7 66.2 persons will increase to 
Total 8,039.5 16,230.8 1,775.5 7,822.1 18,518.1 2,248.6 3.3 million, making up 
Percent about 11% of the total 
Malay & Bumiputera 34.8 59.1 6.1 31.8 61.1 7.0 population then.
Chinese 25.3 64.5 10.1 22.6 65.3 12.1
2035   60+ population reaches 15%
Indian 28.8 64.9 6.3 25.8 66.4 7.8 2020    65+ population reaches 7%
Others 41.7 53.6 4.7 40.6 54.5 4.9 2020     Median age reaches 30 years old
Malaysian 32.0 60.8 7.1 29.2 62.5 8.3 2042 Proportion of 60+ exceeds 
proportion of <15
Non-Malaysian 15.7 81.7 2.6 6.7 90.5 2.9 2017 Peak of proportion of 15‐59 
Total 30.9 62.3 6.8 27.4 64.8 7.9 age group at 65.6%

Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia, 2014; 2015


Older Population (60+) in Malaysia, 1970 ‐ 2040
9000 25

Between 2020 and 2046, Malaysia’s 65+ population will double from 7% to 14%
8000

1 million 2 million 3 million 4 million 5 million 19.3


19.8
20
7000 18.8
18.3
17.9
17.4
17.0
16.6
16.1
6000 15.7
60+
Number in Thousands (‘000)

15.3
14.9
14.4 15
%60+ 14.0
13.6

Percent (%)
5000 13.2
12.8
Source: Author’s Tabulation 11.9
12.3

11.5
www.data.gov.my (DOSM, 2017) & DOSM, 2016 10.7
11.1
4000 10.3
9.9
9.6
9.2 10
8.9
8.6
8.4
8.1
7.9
3000 7.4
7.6
7.2
6.8 7.0
6.6 6.7
6.2 6.3 6.4
6.1
5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0
5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8
5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6
2000
5

1000

0 0
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Year
Sex and Ethnic Differences, 2018
Average Life Expectancy
Older Persons (60+)
at Birth
LIFE EXPECTANCY Ethnicity
n (‘000) % Male Female

Malays &
Other Bumi. 1,879.0 9.2 71.4 76.2

Chinese 1,104.1 16.1 75.0 80.2

77.4 At birth 72.7 Indian 244.3 11.7 67.8 76.3


Others 17.7 5.7 76.2 77.5
21.0 At 60 18.4
Non-Malaysian 143.7 4.5 n/a n/a
Source: Abridged Life Tables, Malaysia,
2017 (DOSM, 2018)
Total 60+ 3,388.6 10.3 72.7 77.4
Source: DOSM, 2016;2018
Comparison of 2000 & 2010 Censuses, Malaysia
• Selangor has the largest 
population of older persons 
aged 60 years or over in 
2010 but it is still a 
relatively young state. 
• Compared to Perak, the 
state with the highest 
percentage of older persons 
(12%), Selangor’s elderly 
only makes up about 6% of 
the total population in 
2010.
• States that have large 
populations might remain 
young as it attracts younger 
rural population from other 
states.
Source: DOSM, various years
Percentage Distribution of older persons (60 years or over) Perak Darul Ridzuan
Sub-district
2000 2010 District
2000 2010
0.00 - 1.99
2.00 - 3.99
Ulu Perak
8.23
4.00 - 5.99

Larut dan Matang


6.00 - 7.99
9.27
8.00 - 9.99
Kerian
9.9
10.00 - 11.99
Kuala Kangsar
11.37
12.00 - 13.99
+
14.00 - 16.00
Kinta
9.38
Missing Data
Manjung
7.31

Perak Tengah
11.52
Batang Padang
8.54


Hilir Perak
9.6

Geographical Gerontology

Perak is the oldest state in


Malaysia by percentage. The real

 reason for this is outward


migration.
Percentage Distribution of Older Persons (60+) Selangor Darul Ehsan
Sub-district District
2000 2010 2000 2010
Sabak Bernam
8.98

Ulu Selangor
6.22

Kuala Selangor
6.77

Gombak
4.21

Petaling
4.03 Ulu Langat
Klang 3.74
4.56

Kuala Langat
5.9 Sepang
4.39

0.00 - 1.99
2.00 - 3.99
4.00 - 5.99
6.00 - 7.99
Geographical Gerontology 8.00 - 9.99
10.00 - 11.99
12.00 - 13.99
Selangor is the state with +
14.00 - 16.00

highest number of older Missing Data

persons, but also one of the


youngest states simultaneously.
14
Perak

Pulau Pinang 2015
2005
12

Melaka
Kedah Perlis
Negeri Sembilan

Perak
10
Perlis Sarawak
Johor
WP Labuan
Kelantan Pulau Pinang
MALAYSIA
Percentage of 60+ Population (%)

Kedah Melaka
Pahang WP Kuala Lumpur

8 Negeri Sembilan
Kelantan Terengganu
Sarawak Selangor
Johor
MALAYSIA

6 Terengganu Pahang
WP Labuan
WP Kuala Lumpur
Selangor
Sabah

4
Sabah

2
POPULATION AGEING & GDP BY STATE, 
WP Putrajaya

2005 ‐ 2015
0
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000
GDP per Capita at Current Prices (RM)
Median Age, Percent and Number of Older Persons (60+) 
by State, Malaysia, 1970 ‐ 2020 
1970 1980 1991 2000 2010 2020
State 60+ 60+ 60+ 60+ 60+ 60+
Mdage Mdage Mdage Mdage Mdage Mdage
N ‘000 % N ‘000 % N ‘000 % N ‘000 % N ‘000 % N ‘000 %
Johor 71.1 5.4 16.3 89.6 5.4 19.0 122.8 5.6 22.3 172.4 6.3 24.5 278.0 8.3 27.0 418.7 11.2 30.9
Kedah 54.9 5.5 17.6 68.4 6.1 19.5 96.9 7.1 21.8 130.9 7.9 23.1 184.1 9.5 26.2 259.8 11.8 28.4
Kelantan 47.0 6.6 18.1 55.2 6.2 18.4 76.9 6.3 18.4 94.1 7.3 18.8 135.9 8.8 23.1 187.1 10.1 25.3
Melaka 25.4 6.1 16.5 30.7 6.6 19.4 40.0 7.4 22.6 51.1 8.0 24.3 79.4 9.7 26.5 113.6 12.2 29.9
Negeri Sembilan 29.7 5.9 16.3 37.0 6.4 19.1 46.9 6.5 21.5 63.4 7.4 23.9 91.9 9.0 26.7 148.5 12.6 29.8
Pahang 27.7 5.3 17.1 37.5 4.7 18.6 45.8 4.2 19.5 69.8 5.7 22.2 122.7 8.2 24.9 183.2 10.4 27.7
Perak 95.0 5.8 17.2 111.1 6.1 19.3 150.7 7.6 22.5 189.8 9.3 25.1 280.1 11.9 27.9 385.8 14.9 30.2
Perlis 8.9 7.1 19.5 10.7 7.2 21.9 14.0 7.3 23.0 18.8 9.2 23.9 25.5 11.0 25.7 30.2 11.6 27.9
Pulau Pinang 50.1 6.2 18.9 63.1 6.6 22.0 81.7 7.2 25.3 103.6 7.9 27.0 159.3 10.2 29.6 242.4 13.9 33.9
Sabah 24.0 3.4 16.5 33.4 3.2 18.3 60.5 3.3 19.8 100.2 3.9 20.1 138.4 4.3 22.8 261.3 6.8 27.4
Sarawak 50.6 4.9 16.9 74.1 5.5 18.8 101.8 5.9 21.6 133.5 6.5 23.6 211.2 8.6 26.0 317.4 11.4 29.5
Selangor 81.9 4.8 17.1 73.0 4.8 20.4 108.0 4.4 23.1 189.6 4.5 24.5 334.3 6.1 27.0 553.7 8.9 32.2
Terengganu 25.3 6.0 17.3 31.4 5.8 18.4 43.1 5.3 18.6 54.9 6.1 19.3 78.1 7.5 22.9 115.9 9.1 25.6
WP Kuala Lumpur 44.4 4.5 22.1 56.0 4.4 25.1 75.0 5.4 26.6 127.8 7.6 28.6 212 11.5 33.9
WP Labuan 2.0 3.8 21.9 2.3 3.1 21.7 3.5 4.0 25.2 7.6 7.2 28.6
WP Putrajaya n/a n/a n/a 1.0 1.4 25.9 3.7 3.7 24.5
MALAYSIA 591.6 5.4 17.4 759.6 5.5 19.6 1,046.7 5.6 21.9 1,451.7 6.2 23.6 2,251.2 8.0 26.2 3,440.9 10.6 29.9

• Gentrification KL ‐ e.g. why Median Age (mid‐point) shows vastly different pattern than %  
Urban‐Rural Distribution of Older Malaysians, 1970 ‐ 2010

Urban Rural
Year Percent % in Percent
N (‘000) N (‘000) % in Rural
(%) Urban (%)
1970 146.9 26.9 5.2 399.2 73.1 5.2
1980 245.2 32.9 5.5 500.0 87.1 5.8
1991 470.7 45.6 5.3 561.6 54.4 6.5
2000 785.3 54.1 5.4 686.4 45.9 7.5
2010 1,478.1 65.7 7.3 773.2 34.3 9.4

• After the year 2000, more older persons (60+) are found in urban areas. This is 
partially due to the reclassification of rural areas into urban ones as development 
picks up.
• However, the rural areas are also ageing rapidly because of inter‐state migration.
LFPR by Sex at Specific Age Groups, Malaysia, 
2008 & 2017 Source: Labour Force Survey Report 
(DOSM, 2009; 2018)
100
90
Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR)

80
70
60
50
40
2008 Male
30
2008 Female
20
2017 Male
10
2017 Female
0
15‐19 20‐24 25‐29 30‐34 35‐39 40‐44 45‐49 50‐54 55‐59 60‐64
Age Group
Older Persons by Household Income Levels, 2014 
Households  Households  Number & 
Household Income Levels All Households without Older  with Older  Percentage of 
Persons Persons Older Persons
B40 5,935 3,672 2,263 3,139
[≤RM3,531.52] (40%) (37.2%) (45.6%) (45.5%)
M40 5,936 4,103 1,833 2,561
[RM3,531.53 ‐ RM7,708.16] (40%) (41.5%) (37.0%) (37.1%)
T20 2,967 2,102 865 1,197
[RM7,708.17+] (20%) (21.3%) (17.4%) (17.4%)
Poverty Line 193 148 45 59
(Hh 4.2p < RM930) (1.3%) (1.5%) (0.9%) (0.9%)
Total 14,838 Hh 9,877 Hh 4,961 Hh 6,897 OP

Source: HES2014, Dept. of Statistics Malaysia, 2016
[unpublished data]
Total Health Expenditure, Malaysia, 1997 ‐ 2015
Source: MNHA Health Expenditure Report, p. 11 (MOH, 2017)
Per capita spending 
on health (RM), 2015
= RM1,687

Health Expenditure 
by Sources of 
Funding, 2015

THE 2015 = RM52.6 billion
Private Public
49% 51%

78% of  84% of 
private  public 
spending  spending is 
is by  by Ministry 
household  of Health 
OOP (MOH)
Intersections of Younger and Older Population 
by Different Definitions, Malaysia, 1950 ‐ 2100
30000

0‐14
25000
0‐19
15‐59
20‐64
20000 15‐64
20‐59
Number ('000) In Thousands

60+
65+
15000

10000

5000

0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100

Year
Demographic Characteristics & Population Ageing 
of the Older Malaysians by Ethnicity (60+)
Source: DOSM, 2001; 2011 

Variable 2000  2010


Malay & B Chinese Indian Malaysian Malay & B Chinese Indian Malaysian
Number 60+ 804,166 501,007 93,861 1,411,501 1,242,865 777,622 150,339 2,182,804
Percent 60+ (%) 5.64 8.80 5.59 6.45 7.09 12.16 7.88 8.39
Sex Ratio 60+ 90.69 91.45 86.80 90.92 91.91 104.18 87.02 95.78
Urban 60+ (%) 26.79 66.10 66.36 43.50 48.12 88.54 88.95 65.37
Ageing Index 14.96 33.64 18.44 18.85 22.78 54.98 31.39 29.44
Old‐age DR 5.99 7.87 5.11 6.45 6.99 11.14 6.58 8.04
Potential SR 16.70 12.70 19.57 15.50 14.31 8.98 15.19 12.44
Median Age 20.8 28.9 25.1 23.2 24.1 31.7 28.1 26.0

© MyAgeing TM
Years for 65+ Population to Double from 7% to 14%
Vietnam (2016 ‐ 2034) 18
Timor‐Leste (2065 ‐ 2089) 24
Thailand (2002 ‐ 2022) 20
Singapore (1999 ‐ 2019) 20
Philippines (2032 ‐ 2068) 36
Myanmar (2023 ‐ 2055) 32
Malaysia (2020 ‐ 2046) 26
Lao PDR (2038 ‐ 2058) 20
Indonesia (2026 ‐ 2051) 25
Cambodia (2032 ‐ 2057) 25
Brunei (2024 ‐ 2037) 13

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Years
Source: UN World Population Database (2017 Revision)
Policies, Laws  Ministry 
of Health
& Key Public Actors
• 1 National Policy for Older Person
(MNUSD, 1995; MWFCD, 2011)
• 1 National Health Policy for Older Person
(MOH, 2008)
• 1 Physical Planning Guidelines for the 
Elderly (MHLG, 2013) Ministry of Urban
Well‐being, Housing  
NACCE Ministry of Women,  & Local Government
Legislation: Family & Community 
Development
 Rules for the Management of Home for Older Persons 1983.
Ministry of Higher 
 Rules for the Management of Home for the Chronically Ill 1978 Education
 Care Centre Act 1993 (Act 506) (Dept. of 
 Private Healthcare Facilities and Services Act 2006 (Act 586) Community Colleges)
 Pensions Act 1980 (Act 239) National Day of 
 Employees Provident Fund Act 1991 (Act 452) Older Persons 
 Private Aged Healthcare Facilities and Services Act (new) (1 Oct)
since 1991
Major Population‐related Issues
Income security
Social protection

INCOME INEQUALITY

POPULATION AGEING

2016 Pensions
Long‐term care

GRADUATE 
UNEMPLOYMENT Health & social care systems
Youth employment
Engine of growth
Putting Things into Perspective Source: UPM, 2017

Need  Income  Potential to 


Need   Affordable  generating   contribute to 
Welfare   Services programmes society 
approach

OLDER 
MALAYSIANS 4.6 8.5 25.8 61.2

aizan@upm.edu.my
Key Conclusions 
1. By any measure, older persons in Malaysia are increasing in absolute numbers and 
in proportion.
2. Life expectancy at birth and at 60 are increasing, but the real driver of population 
ageing is rapidly declining birth rates.
3. There are wide variations in the rates of ageing by sex, ethnicity and geography.
4. Older persons are asset rich but cash or income poor.
5. Disease and mortality patterns are changing, but health expenditure is still a 
relatively new concern as it coincides with calls for systemic reforms (from NHS‐
like to privatization and now insurance / risk‐pooling).
6. The health care and social welfare system in Malaysia are facing novel challenges, 
but the changing demographics are also bringing new opportunities.
7. We need to rethink how demographic and indicators of population are useful for 
evidence‐based policy planning, more so in aid specifications (e.g. old & B40)
ASEAN‐wide Research Network on Ageing
• The objective of the project is to establish a common, 
cohesive and sustainable ASEAN research agenda on issues 
pertaining to ageing through exchanges of knowledge, 
experiences, best practices, the development of a 
standardized research protocol and the establishment of a 
network of ASEAN experts and researchers on ageing. 
• Each participating member state will prepare a list of experts 
and of researches pertaining to ageing conducted in their 
respective country, including clinical research, survey 
research, secondary data and administrative record analysis, 
and evaluative research. By the end of the project, a regional 
framework of ageing research will be developed.
• The expected deliverables from this project are a standardized 
protocol for documenting major ageing research in ASEAN 
and a network/list of experts on ageing in the ASEAN region. 
Thank You
TERIMA KASIH

aizan@upm.edu.my

You might also like