Ageing Different in Asean
Ageing Different in Asean
Ageing Different in Asean
3: Using Different Measures of Ageing: Country Case Studies, 25 February 2019,
Expert Group Meeting on Measuring Population Ageing: Bridging Research and Policy,
25 ‐ 26 February 2019, Mandarin Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand
Ageing in Malaysia
Prof. Dato’ Dr. Tengku Aizan HAMID, DPSK
aizan@upm.edu.my
Director
Malaysian Research Institute on Ageing (MyAgeingTM),
Universiti Putra Malaysia
Content
• Introduction (TFR, Longevity,
Inter‐state Migration)
• Population Ageing in Malaysia
• Policy & Population Issues
• Conclusion
aizan@upm.edu.my
Geography of Malaysia
• Malaysia is an upper‐middle income country with a GDP of USD 296.4 billion in 2015. Its Gross
National Income (GNI) per capita ranks 3rd in Southeast Asia after Brunei and Singapore, and 44th
in the world (World Bank, 2017). It is also the 44th most populous country in the world and ranks
66th globally in terms of country total area (330,603 km2).
aizan@upm.edu.my
aizan@upm.edu.my
Malaysia at a Glance, Census 2010 & 2020
2010 2020
Population 27.5 million 33.8 million
Living Quarters 7.3 million 9.9 million
Source: DOSM, 2018
Total Fertility Rate by Ethnicity, Malaysia,
1963 ‐ 2016
8.0
7.0
6.0
6.0
5.8
5.6
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
5.4
5.0 5.2
5.0
4.7
4.6 4.6
4.0 4.3
4.1
3.9 3.9
3.6
3.4 3.4
3.0 3.3
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6
2.5 2.6 2.6
2.4 2.5 2.5
2.0 2.3 2.3 2.2
2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0
1.9 1.9
1.8 1.8 1.8
1.7 1.7
1.5 1.6
1.4 1.5 1.4
1.0 1.3
0.0
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Year
Total Bumiputera Chinese Indian
© MyAgeing TM
• People are living longer
Increasing Longevity and Malaysians on
average have a life
Life Expectancy at Birth and at 60 Years by Ethnicity, Malaysia, 1991 - 2015 expectancy level that is
similar to other upper
2015 middle‐income
Life 1991 2000 2010
(Estimated) countries.
Expectancy
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female • Economic growth and
At birth public health
Total 69.2 73.4 70.0 74.7 71.9 76.6 72.5 77.4 development has
Malay* 68.8 71.9 69.0 73.3 70.7 75.4 71.2 76.1 increased likelihood of
Chinese 70.7 76.4 72.4 77.6 74.4 79.1 75.1 80.1 persons surviving into
Indian 64.2 71.4 65.7 73.5 67.6 75.7 67.7 75.8 later life.
At 60 years • An older person aged 60
Total 16.1 18.1 16.7 19.0 17.9 20.1 18.4 20.9 years old in 2015 can
Malay* 15.7 16.9 15.9 17.8 17.1 19.4 17.6 20.0 reasonably expect to
Chinese 16.8 20.2 18.1 21.1 19.1 21.7 19.9 22.8 live for another 17 to 23
Indian 14.2 17.6 15.2 19.1 16.9 19.8 17.5 20.1
years, depending on
their gender or
* Including other Bumiputera ethnicity.
Source: Department of Statistics (1997; 2002; 2015)
aizan@upm.edu.my
5‐year Inter‐state Net Migrants by State, Malaysia,
1980 ‐ 2010 Source: NPFDB, 1999, DOSM, 1995, 2006, 2014, 2017
250
200
100 236.9 91.6
220.4
155.3
200 63.6
150
50 44.2
Number in Thousands (‘000)
150
100
100 0.5 2
50
0
50 19.3 ‐0.3 ‐1.4 ‐0.1
‐7.4 3.3
19.9
19.2 ‐12.8
17.8 1.8
0 9.5 ‐19.2 ‐19.4
2.9 7.3 6.7 13.6 3.1 0.2
0 ‐5.3 ‐2.3 ‐2.5 ‐1.1 ‐3.5 ‐5.5
‐50 ‐41 ‐13.9 ‐2.9
‐1 ‐2.1‐10 ‐2.9
‐12.3 ‐28.7 ‐14.4 ‐11.8 ‐17 ‐12.1
‐50 ‐21.8 ‐21 ‐24
‐50 ‐37.7 ‐35.9 ‐41.6
‐51.1 ‐71.1
‐50.9
‐70.2
‐58.8
‐85.4 ‐94.2
‐100
Perlis
Perlis
Perlis
Sarawak
Sarawak
Selangor
Sarawak
Selangor
Terengganu
Selangor
Kedah
Kedah
Kedah
Negeri Sembilan
Negeri Sembilan
Negeri Sembilan
Terengganu
Terengganu
WP Putrajaya
Johor
Johor
Kelantan
Kelantan
Kelantan
Melaka
Melaka
Melaka
Perak
Perak
Perak
Pulau Pinang
Pulau Pinang
Pulau Pinang
Sabah
Sabah
Sabah
WP Kuala Lumpur
WP Kuala Lumpur
WP Labuan
WP Kuala Lumpur
WP Labuan
Pahang
Pahang
Pahang
1986 ‐
1975 ‐
2005 ‐ 1991
1995 ‐ 1980
2010
2000
Population Ageing in Malaysia
Age, Sex, Ethnic & Geographical Differences
Source:
United Nations, DESA, Population Division.
WPP: The 2015 Revision. (Medium variant)
• With the fertility and
Changing Age Structure longevity patterns shown
earlier, it comes as no
Population in Malaysia by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2005 & 2015 surprise that the
2005 2015
Malaysian Chinese are
Ethnicity ageing faster than other
0-14 15-59 60+ 0-14 15-59 60+
Number (in Thousands) ‘000 ethnic groups.
Malay & Bumiputera 5,553.5 9,416.4 977.3 5,625.9 10,808.3 1,242.8 • 1 out of 12 Malaysians are
Chinese 1,551.9 3,953.8 621.6 1,451.5 4,201.0 778.0 an older person in 2015.
Indian 524.0 1,181.4 114.0 495.9 1,278.6 150.4
Others 115.5 148.7 13.1 94.3 126.5 11.4 • By 2020, it is expected
Malaysian 7,744.9 14,700.3 1,726.0 7,667.6 16,414.2 2,182.4 that the number of older
Non-Malaysian 294.4 1,530.6 49.0 154.5 2,103.7 66.2 persons will increase to
Total 8,039.5 16,230.8 1,775.5 7,822.1 18,518.1 2,248.6 3.3 million, making up
Percent about 11% of the total
Malay & Bumiputera 34.8 59.1 6.1 31.8 61.1 7.0 population then.
Chinese 25.3 64.5 10.1 22.6 65.3 12.1
2035 60+ population reaches 15%
Indian 28.8 64.9 6.3 25.8 66.4 7.8 2020 65+ population reaches 7%
Others 41.7 53.6 4.7 40.6 54.5 4.9 2020 Median age reaches 30 years old
Malaysian 32.0 60.8 7.1 29.2 62.5 8.3 2042 Proportion of 60+ exceeds
proportion of <15
Non-Malaysian 15.7 81.7 2.6 6.7 90.5 2.9 2017 Peak of proportion of 15‐59
Total 30.9 62.3 6.8 27.4 64.8 7.9 age group at 65.6%
Between 2020 and 2046, Malaysia’s 65+ population will double from 7% to 14%
8000
15.3
14.9
14.4 15
%60+ 14.0
13.6
Percent (%)
5000 13.2
12.8
Source: Author’s Tabulation 11.9
12.3
11.5
www.data.gov.my (DOSM, 2017) & DOSM, 2016 10.7
11.1
4000 10.3
9.9
9.6
9.2 10
8.9
8.6
8.4
8.1
7.9
3000 7.4
7.6
7.2
6.8 7.0
6.6 6.7
6.2 6.3 6.4
6.1
5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0
5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8
5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6
2000
5
1000
0 0
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Year
Sex and Ethnic Differences, 2018
Average Life Expectancy
Older Persons (60+)
at Birth
LIFE EXPECTANCY Ethnicity
n (‘000) % Male Female
Malays &
Other Bumi. 1,879.0 9.2 71.4 76.2
Perak Tengah
11.52
Batang Padang
8.54
Hilir Perak
9.6
Geographical Gerontology
Ulu Selangor
6.22
Kuala Selangor
6.77
Gombak
4.21
Petaling
4.03 Ulu Langat
Klang 3.74
4.56
Kuala Langat
5.9 Sepang
4.39
0.00 - 1.99
2.00 - 3.99
4.00 - 5.99
6.00 - 7.99
Geographical Gerontology 8.00 - 9.99
10.00 - 11.99
12.00 - 13.99
Selangor is the state with +
14.00 - 16.00
Pulau Pinang 2015
2005
12
Melaka
Kedah Perlis
Negeri Sembilan
Perak
10
Perlis Sarawak
Johor
WP Labuan
Kelantan Pulau Pinang
MALAYSIA
Percentage of 60+ Population (%)
Kedah Melaka
Pahang WP Kuala Lumpur
8 Negeri Sembilan
Kelantan Terengganu
Sarawak Selangor
Johor
MALAYSIA
6 Terengganu Pahang
WP Labuan
WP Kuala Lumpur
Selangor
Sabah
4
Sabah
2
POPULATION AGEING & GDP BY STATE,
WP Putrajaya
2005 ‐ 2015
0
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000
GDP per Capita at Current Prices (RM)
Median Age, Percent and Number of Older Persons (60+)
by State, Malaysia, 1970 ‐ 2020
1970 1980 1991 2000 2010 2020
State 60+ 60+ 60+ 60+ 60+ 60+
Mdage Mdage Mdage Mdage Mdage Mdage
N ‘000 % N ‘000 % N ‘000 % N ‘000 % N ‘000 % N ‘000 %
Johor 71.1 5.4 16.3 89.6 5.4 19.0 122.8 5.6 22.3 172.4 6.3 24.5 278.0 8.3 27.0 418.7 11.2 30.9
Kedah 54.9 5.5 17.6 68.4 6.1 19.5 96.9 7.1 21.8 130.9 7.9 23.1 184.1 9.5 26.2 259.8 11.8 28.4
Kelantan 47.0 6.6 18.1 55.2 6.2 18.4 76.9 6.3 18.4 94.1 7.3 18.8 135.9 8.8 23.1 187.1 10.1 25.3
Melaka 25.4 6.1 16.5 30.7 6.6 19.4 40.0 7.4 22.6 51.1 8.0 24.3 79.4 9.7 26.5 113.6 12.2 29.9
Negeri Sembilan 29.7 5.9 16.3 37.0 6.4 19.1 46.9 6.5 21.5 63.4 7.4 23.9 91.9 9.0 26.7 148.5 12.6 29.8
Pahang 27.7 5.3 17.1 37.5 4.7 18.6 45.8 4.2 19.5 69.8 5.7 22.2 122.7 8.2 24.9 183.2 10.4 27.7
Perak 95.0 5.8 17.2 111.1 6.1 19.3 150.7 7.6 22.5 189.8 9.3 25.1 280.1 11.9 27.9 385.8 14.9 30.2
Perlis 8.9 7.1 19.5 10.7 7.2 21.9 14.0 7.3 23.0 18.8 9.2 23.9 25.5 11.0 25.7 30.2 11.6 27.9
Pulau Pinang 50.1 6.2 18.9 63.1 6.6 22.0 81.7 7.2 25.3 103.6 7.9 27.0 159.3 10.2 29.6 242.4 13.9 33.9
Sabah 24.0 3.4 16.5 33.4 3.2 18.3 60.5 3.3 19.8 100.2 3.9 20.1 138.4 4.3 22.8 261.3 6.8 27.4
Sarawak 50.6 4.9 16.9 74.1 5.5 18.8 101.8 5.9 21.6 133.5 6.5 23.6 211.2 8.6 26.0 317.4 11.4 29.5
Selangor 81.9 4.8 17.1 73.0 4.8 20.4 108.0 4.4 23.1 189.6 4.5 24.5 334.3 6.1 27.0 553.7 8.9 32.2
Terengganu 25.3 6.0 17.3 31.4 5.8 18.4 43.1 5.3 18.6 54.9 6.1 19.3 78.1 7.5 22.9 115.9 9.1 25.6
WP Kuala Lumpur 44.4 4.5 22.1 56.0 4.4 25.1 75.0 5.4 26.6 127.8 7.6 28.6 212 11.5 33.9
WP Labuan 2.0 3.8 21.9 2.3 3.1 21.7 3.5 4.0 25.2 7.6 7.2 28.6
WP Putrajaya n/a n/a n/a 1.0 1.4 25.9 3.7 3.7 24.5
MALAYSIA 591.6 5.4 17.4 759.6 5.5 19.6 1,046.7 5.6 21.9 1,451.7 6.2 23.6 2,251.2 8.0 26.2 3,440.9 10.6 29.9
• Gentrification KL ‐ e.g. why Median Age (mid‐point) shows vastly different pattern than %
Urban‐Rural Distribution of Older Malaysians, 1970 ‐ 2010
Urban Rural
Year Percent % in Percent
N (‘000) N (‘000) % in Rural
(%) Urban (%)
1970 146.9 26.9 5.2 399.2 73.1 5.2
1980 245.2 32.9 5.5 500.0 87.1 5.8
1991 470.7 45.6 5.3 561.6 54.4 6.5
2000 785.3 54.1 5.4 686.4 45.9 7.5
2010 1,478.1 65.7 7.3 773.2 34.3 9.4
• After the year 2000, more older persons (60+) are found in urban areas. This is
partially due to the reclassification of rural areas into urban ones as development
picks up.
• However, the rural areas are also ageing rapidly because of inter‐state migration.
LFPR by Sex at Specific Age Groups, Malaysia,
2008 & 2017 Source: Labour Force Survey Report
(DOSM, 2009; 2018)
100
90
Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR)
80
70
60
50
40
2008 Male
30
2008 Female
20
2017 Male
10
2017 Female
0
15‐19 20‐24 25‐29 30‐34 35‐39 40‐44 45‐49 50‐54 55‐59 60‐64
Age Group
Older Persons by Household Income Levels, 2014
Households Households Number &
Household Income Levels All Households without Older with Older Percentage of
Persons Persons Older Persons
B40 5,935 3,672 2,263 3,139
[≤RM3,531.52] (40%) (37.2%) (45.6%) (45.5%)
M40 5,936 4,103 1,833 2,561
[RM3,531.53 ‐ RM7,708.16] (40%) (41.5%) (37.0%) (37.1%)
T20 2,967 2,102 865 1,197
[RM7,708.17+] (20%) (21.3%) (17.4%) (17.4%)
Poverty Line 193 148 45 59
(Hh 4.2p < RM930) (1.3%) (1.5%) (0.9%) (0.9%)
Total 14,838 Hh 9,877 Hh 4,961 Hh 6,897 OP
Source: HES2014, Dept. of Statistics Malaysia, 2016
[unpublished data]
Total Health Expenditure, Malaysia, 1997 ‐ 2015
Source: MNHA Health Expenditure Report, p. 11 (MOH, 2017)
Per capita spending
on health (RM), 2015
= RM1,687
Health Expenditure
by Sources of
Funding, 2015
THE 2015 = RM52.6 billion
Private Public
49% 51%
78% of 84% of
private public
spending spending is
is by by Ministry
household of Health
OOP (MOH)
Intersections of Younger and Older Population
by Different Definitions, Malaysia, 1950 ‐ 2100
30000
0‐14
25000
0‐19
15‐59
20‐64
20000 15‐64
20‐59
Number ('000) In Thousands
60+
65+
15000
10000
5000
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100
Year
Demographic Characteristics & Population Ageing
of the Older Malaysians by Ethnicity (60+)
Source: DOSM, 2001; 2011
© MyAgeing TM
Years for 65+ Population to Double from 7% to 14%
Vietnam (2016 ‐ 2034) 18
Timor‐Leste (2065 ‐ 2089) 24
Thailand (2002 ‐ 2022) 20
Singapore (1999 ‐ 2019) 20
Philippines (2032 ‐ 2068) 36
Myanmar (2023 ‐ 2055) 32
Malaysia (2020 ‐ 2046) 26
Lao PDR (2038 ‐ 2058) 20
Indonesia (2026 ‐ 2051) 25
Cambodia (2032 ‐ 2057) 25
Brunei (2024 ‐ 2037) 13
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Years
Source: UN World Population Database (2017 Revision)
Policies, Laws Ministry
of Health
& Key Public Actors
• 1 National Policy for Older Person
(MNUSD, 1995; MWFCD, 2011)
• 1 National Health Policy for Older Person
(MOH, 2008)
• 1 Physical Planning Guidelines for the
Elderly (MHLG, 2013) Ministry of Urban
Well‐being, Housing
NACCE Ministry of Women, & Local Government
Legislation: Family & Community
Development
Rules for the Management of Home for Older Persons 1983.
Ministry of Higher
Rules for the Management of Home for the Chronically Ill 1978 Education
Care Centre Act 1993 (Act 506) (Dept. of
Private Healthcare Facilities and Services Act 2006 (Act 586) Community Colleges)
Pensions Act 1980 (Act 239) National Day of
Employees Provident Fund Act 1991 (Act 452) Older Persons
Private Aged Healthcare Facilities and Services Act (new) (1 Oct)
since 1991
Major Population‐related Issues
Income security
Social protection
INCOME INEQUALITY
POPULATION AGEING
2016 Pensions
Long‐term care
GRADUATE
UNEMPLOYMENT Health & social care systems
Youth employment
Engine of growth
Putting Things into Perspective Source: UPM, 2017
OLDER
MALAYSIANS 4.6 8.5 25.8 61.2
aizan@upm.edu.my
Key Conclusions
1. By any measure, older persons in Malaysia are increasing in absolute numbers and
in proportion.
2. Life expectancy at birth and at 60 are increasing, but the real driver of population
ageing is rapidly declining birth rates.
3. There are wide variations in the rates of ageing by sex, ethnicity and geography.
4. Older persons are asset rich but cash or income poor.
5. Disease and mortality patterns are changing, but health expenditure is still a
relatively new concern as it coincides with calls for systemic reforms (from NHS‐
like to privatization and now insurance / risk‐pooling).
6. The health care and social welfare system in Malaysia are facing novel challenges,
but the changing demographics are also bringing new opportunities.
7. We need to rethink how demographic and indicators of population are useful for
evidence‐based policy planning, more so in aid specifications (e.g. old & B40)
ASEAN‐wide Research Network on Ageing
• The objective of the project is to establish a common,
cohesive and sustainable ASEAN research agenda on issues
pertaining to ageing through exchanges of knowledge,
experiences, best practices, the development of a
standardized research protocol and the establishment of a
network of ASEAN experts and researchers on ageing.
• Each participating member state will prepare a list of experts
and of researches pertaining to ageing conducted in their
respective country, including clinical research, survey
research, secondary data and administrative record analysis,
and evaluative research. By the end of the project, a regional
framework of ageing research will be developed.
• The expected deliverables from this project are a standardized
protocol for documenting major ageing research in ASEAN
and a network/list of experts on ageing in the ASEAN region.
Thank You
TERIMA KASIH
aizan@upm.edu.my