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Inequality Source 01

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ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL POLICIES TO REDUCE

INCOME INEQUALITIES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Ayodele Odusola, PhD


Chief Economist and Head, Strategy and Analysis Team
UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa
New York

UNDESA EGM on Addressing Inequalities and Challenges to Social Inclusions, 25-27 June 2018

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KEY MESSAGES
• Divergence in income levels and trends across regions, groups and
countries
• Drivers of income inequality are multi-dimensional and complex
• Inequality generates development paradoxes; which make
development management more complex
• Extreme inequality is detrimental to growth and development
• There is no one silver bullet to addressing inequality in Africa
• Policies that help reduce poverty are not necessarily the same as
those that help reduce income inequality, which underpins
complementarity of policies

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Magnitude and trends of income
inequality in SSA (1/3)
• SSA one of the most unequal regions
(10/19)
• GOOD NEWS: Income inequality declined in SSA
by 3.4 Gini points between 1990 and 2011
...BUT rose by 0.6 points (2008-2010) because
of global financial crisis
Gini for Africa and other developing countries (ODCs) 7 Outliers’ driven
Africa ODCs Difference
Ave. 0.43 Ave. 0.39 0.04
Min: Egypt 0.31 Min: Ukraine =0.25
Max: SA 0.65 Max: Haiti = 0.52
LIC =0.42 LIC = 0.39 0.03
LMIC =0.44 LMIC = 0.40 0.05
UMIC =0.46 UMIC = 0.40 0.06
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Magnitude and trends of income
inequality in SSA (2/3)
• Bifurcation in inequality trends
existed across countries in SSA:
Gini, where data is available,
✓Declined in 59% of countries
✓Rose in 41% of countries

• Four distinct groups emerged:


✓Declining
✓ Rising
✓U-shaped
✓Inverted U-shaped
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Cornia (2017)
Magnitude and trends of
income inequality in SSA
(3/3)

Seven OUTLIER countries make Africa’s Gini


to be above the world average – using
consumption measure:
1. South Africa
2. Namibia
3. Botswana
4. Central African Republic
5. Comoros
6. Zambia
7. Lesotho
GOOD NEWS:
14 African countries are among the lowest
Gini in the world,
mostly agrarian West Africa

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Structural drivers of inequality (1/2)
1. Highly dualistic economic • Inequality rises when growth occurs in:
structure – labour elite Sector high asset, capital and skilled-labour
(mining, MNCs, FIRE, Pub. concentration sectors BUT falls or remains
stable in labour intensive mfg., agric. and
Service) Vs informal and construction sectors.
subsistence sectors • Inequality falls as result of:
2. High concentration of land, ➢Improved distribution of human capital
physical and human capital ➢Increased direct taxes, efficiency of tax
administration, well-targeted social protection
3. Limited redistributive capacity ➢Better distribution of socio-economic facilities
– roads, electricity, schools, hospitals, etc.
of the state manifested by:
natural resource curse, urban bias policies, ➢Enhanced productivity in agriculture
regressive tax, ethnic and gender
inequalities
Message Two: Drivers of income inequality are multi-dimensional and complex 6
Structural drivers of inequality (2/2)

•Inequality is a by-product of:


• Regressive taxes (29/47)
• Unresponsive wage structure
• Inadequate investment in health education and
social protection for the marginalized
• Discriminatory social norms especially for women

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Emerging puzzles requiring further investigations
1. No clear link exists
3. Conflict-Inequality
between resource 2. Population growth and
relationship creates a
dependence and inequality creates a puzzle
puzzle
inequality

Population-poverty relationship is Intensity of multi-dimensional


BUT resource-dependence poverty drives conflicts
positive:
growth presents obvious
inequality RISKS: Most countries with fertility rate of 6.0+ Most countries with poverty rate
have high poverty rates >60% experienced intense conflict
– e.g. Burundi, CAR, DRC

Population-Inequality relationship
Inequality Risks are high: is negative: Countries with high Gini are
1. Corruption and Illicit Most countries with fertility rate of 6.0+ non-conflict prone countries
outflows have low Gini(<0.44); (e.g. Botswana, Namibia, RSA
2.Weak governing institutions Most countries with low fertility rate have Harold Laski Hypothesis
high Gini(>0.54)
– resource curse

Message Three: Inequality generates development 8


paradoxes; which make development mgt. more complex
Emerging lessons

Policies that help reduce poverty are


No homogeneous solution; not necessarily the same as those that
multi-dimensional responses help reduce income inequality.
are needed
• Education, institutions, • Complementarity of policies matter:
modernized agriculture and
industrialization ✓Quality education and enhanced
productivity are important tools to
reduce poverty
• Distribution matters: wealth,
opportunities and power [PM] ✓YET, if unaccompanied by progressive
taxation and well-targeted social
protection, they could accelerate income
• Equalizing social protection disparities
[FDR].
Message Four: There is no one silver bullet to addressing inequality in Africa
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Planting and Nurturing Tree of Equity in Africa

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Conclusion

Reflection from Former President Mandela:

“As long as poverty, injustice and gross inequality persist in


our world, none of us can truly rest”.

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THANK YOU

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