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Assignment 1 - Operations Management

This document contains 4 assignments related to forecasting, trend analysis, and quality costs: 1. The first assignment asks to forecast September sales of radio frequency tags using different forecasting methods, including naive, moving average, weighted average, exponential smoothing, and linear trend. It also asks which method is least appropriate based on a plot of historical sales data. 2. The second assignment involves using linear regression trend analysis to predict the number of patients a heart surgeon will see in future years based on historical data of patients and heart attack rates. 3. The third assignment asks to forecast January, February, and March demand next year using a trend and seasonality model that combines a linear trend component with seasonal factors

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Shujat Ali
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
95 views

Assignment 1 - Operations Management

This document contains 4 assignments related to forecasting, trend analysis, and quality costs: 1. The first assignment asks to forecast September sales of radio frequency tags using different forecasting methods, including naive, moving average, weighted average, exponential smoothing, and linear trend. It also asks which method is least appropriate based on a plot of historical sales data. 2. The second assignment involves using linear regression trend analysis to predict the number of patients a heart surgeon will see in future years based on historical data of patients and heart attack rates. 3. The third assignment asks to forecast January, February, and March demand next year using a trend and seasonality model that combines a linear trend component with seasonal factors

Uploaded by

Shujat Ali
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Assignment 1 (20 marks: 5 each)

Due Date: 24th February 2023 (Must be submitted in neat & clean handwriting)

1. Telenor, sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as
follows:

Month Sales
(000 units)
February 19
March 18
April 15
May 20
June 18
July 22
August 20

a. Plot the monthly data on a sheet of graph paper.


b. Forecast September sales volume using each of the following:
(1) The naive approach.
(2) A five-month moving average.
(3) A weighted average using 0.60 for August, 0.30 for July, and 0.10 for June.
(4) Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0.20, assuming a March
forecast of 19(000).
(5) A linear trend equation.
c. Which method seems least appropriate? Why? (Hint: Refer to your plot from part a.)
d. What does the use of the term sales rather than demand presume?
2. Dr. Anwar Saeed, a heart surgeon, specializes in cardiac transplants. The following table indicates
how many patients Dr. Anwar has seen each year for the past 10 years. It also indicates what the heart
attack was in Lahore during the same year:

Year Number Heart Attack Rate


Of Patients Per 1,000
Population
1 36 58.3
2 33 61.1
3 40 73.4
4 41 75.7
5 40 81.1
6 55 89.0
7 60 101.1
8 54 94.8
9 58 103.3
10 61 116.2

Using trend (linear regression) analysis, predict the number of patients Dr. Anwar will see in
years 11 and 12 as a function of time. How well does the model fit the data

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3. A manager of a store that sells and installs spas wants to prepare a forecast for January, February, and
March of next year. Her forecasts are a combination of trend and seasonality. She uses the following
equation to estimate the trend component of monthly demand: Ft =70 + 5t, where t = 0 in June of last
year. Seasonal relatives are 1.10 for January, 1.02 for February, and .95 for March. What demands
should she predict?

4. What are the type of cost of quality for the following activities?
i. Re-inspecting rework
ii. Training
iii. Warrant Repairs
iv. Line Inspection
v. Downtime
vi. Design Engineering
vii. Product Testing Equipment
viii. Litigation cost to defend allegations of the defective product
ix. Recording and reporting reports
x. Supplier evaluation
xi. Storing and disposing of waste
xii. Product liability insurance
xiii. Expediting
xiv. Procedure Verification
xv. Recalls

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