Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, 2009, 89(1), 203 –210.

#2009 Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom

doi:10.1017/S0025315408003196 Printed in the United Kingdom

REVIEW

Climate change and cetaceans: concerns

and recent developments
mark p. simmonds1 and wendy j. eliott2
1
Whale and Dolphin Conservation Society, Brookfield House, Chippenham, Wiltshire SN15 1LJ UK, 2WWF-International,
Avenue du Mont Blanc, 1196 Gland, Switzerland

At least a quarter of the world’s cetaceans were recently confirmed as endangered and the situation may be worse as the status
of many others remains unclear. Climate change is affecting the oceans and a number of studies have recently highlighted its
potential impact on cetacean species - for example, there are important linkages between sea ice and krill, the primary prey for
baleen whales in Antarctica. This paper provides a synthesis of new information available on this theme and considers its
implications for the future conservation and management of cetacean populations and species.
The more mobile (or otherwise adaptable) cetaceans may be able to respond to climate related changes, although the extent
of this adaptability is largely unknown. However, there is broad agreement that certain species and populations are likely to be
especially vulnerable to climate related changes, including those with a limited habitat range, or those for which sea ice pro-
vides an important habitat for the cetacean population and/or that of their prey. International conservation bodies, such as
the Convention for Migratory Species and the International Whaling Commission, are striving to address these issues. The
challenges presented by climate change require an innovative, large scale, long term and multinational response from scien-
tists, conservation managers and decision makers. This response that should encompass a precautionary approach, including
addressing the detrimental effects of other factors negatively impacting populations and species.

Keywords: climate change, cetaceans, concerns, recent developments

Submitted 2 August 2007; accepted 29 September 2008

INTRODUCTION and fish abundance have now been associated with ‘high con-
fidence’ with rising water temperatures (IPPC, 2007a).
There is now unequivocal evidence that climate change is Here we consider the current state of knowledge about how
occurring (IPCC, 2007a), and the International Panel on climate changes may affect or are already affecting cetaceans
Climate Change (IPCC) warns that anthropogenic warming and how this issue may be best addressed. Learmonth et al.
could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible, (2006) and Simmonds & Isaac (2007) have considered this
depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate topic previously and there has been significant relevant scien-
change. One of these irreversible changes is species loss, and tific literature published since these reviews, including, for
the IPCC has estimated that 20 –30% of plant and animal example, the latest reports from the IPCC (IPCC, 2007a, b)
species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of and a special multi-authored edition of Ecological
extinction if global temperatures rise by more than Applications that focused on Arctic marine mammals and
1.5 – 2.58C (IPPC, 2007b). This figure increases to 40 –70% if climate change (Huntington & Moore, 2008).
the global average temperature increase exceeds about 3.58C. Another recent development is the publication of the new
In the marine environment known or predicted changes ‘Red List’ for cetaceans from the International Union for the
related to climate change include an increase in temperature, Conservation of Nature (IUCN, 2008). Given that this is the
a rise in sea levels, changes in sea-ice cover, salinity, acidity, first time that cetaceans have received IUCN designations
ocean circulation, storminess and climate patterns (IPCC, under circumstances of accelerated climate change, we con-
2007a, b; Learmonth et al., 2006). In some marine and fresh- sider the relationship between the two.
water systems, shifts in ranges and changes in algal, plankton

PREDICTED IMPACTS
Corresponding author:
M.P. Simmonds Learmonth et al. (2006) and Simmonds & Isaac (2007) came to
Email: mark.simmonds@wdcs.org similar conclusions in their two independent reviews. They

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 204 mark p. simmonds and wendy j. eliott

suggested that climate change effects could include changes in most significant impact. Many cetaceans are highly migratory
abundance, distributions, timing and range of migrations, com- and make regular movements, often over long distances,
munity structure, prey abundance and distributions, changes in between breeding and feeding sites and some migration
trophic relationships, reproductive success and, ultimately, sur- routes, or particular segments of some migration routes, may
vival. They categorized threats as either direct, such as a species be critical areas too. Robinson et al. (2008) suggested that
tracking a specific range of water temperatures in which they migratory species presented something of a paradox, firstly,
can physically survive, or indirect, such as the potential because they are highly mobile and might be expected to
impacts on reproductive success through effects on the distri- ‘track’ changes in the locations of suitable environments
bution and abundance of prey or the structure of prey commu- across the globe but, secondly, because they are dependent on
nities at specific locations. A third category which may yet access to suitable habitat in multiple locations.
prove important could be climate-driven changes in human The reviews by Learmonth et al. (2006) and Simmonds &
behaviour that impact on cetaceans. For example, increased Isaac (2007) both stress that whilst marine mammal species,
accessibility of Arctic waters might cause new or expanded including those that are highly migratory, have evolved in
fisheries with increased impacts on cetaceans. the past within constantly changing environmental conditions
Learmonth et al. (2006) also suggested that whilst climate and have successfully adapted to changes in the climate, the
change will increase the risk of extinction for more vulnerable current rate of change needs to be taken into account. For
species, some others may increase in distribution and example, the rate of retreat of the polar front during the
numbers. The distribution of marine mammals is controlled Pleistocene was one that allowed species to adapt. However,
by a combination of demographic, ecological, evolutionary, it is unclear to what extent cetaceans will be able to adapt to
habitat-related and man-made factors with prey availability the rate of climate change predicted in the near future.
being particularly critical (Learmonth et al., 2006). Prey for Trying to predict the precise consequences of the current
cetaceans—fish, cephalopods and plankton—are in turn rate of climate changes for cetacean species is difficult, and
affected by physical oceanographic features including tempera- impacts are expected to be diverse and mediated in various
ture, and the strong associations between cetacean distributions ways as outlined in Figure 1.
and those of water bodies, boundaries and temperature regimes
have long been recognized (Gaskin, 1982). Some cetacean
species are only found in Arctic waters, such as the bowhead
Direct effects
whale (Balaena mysticetus) and narwhal (Monodon mono- Given that temperature is an important defining factor in ceta-
cerus), others in cold temperate waters (for example the cean distribution and that species have evolved to live within
Atlantic white-beaked dolphin, Lagenorhynchus albirostris) certain temperature regimes, some ability to shift distributions,
and some species are only seen in tropical waters (such as the especially within the oceans, might be expected. Indeed, as
spinner dolphin, Stenella longirostris). Learmonth et al. (2006) described below, there is evidence for this. However, for some
refer to ‘critical areas’ meaning areas used more than others. species and populations this will not be possible and
Changes within these critical areas, which are likely to hold Learmonth et al. (2006), Simmonds & Isaac (2007) and Isaac
key breeding and feeding grounds will probably have the (2008) all draw attention to the vulnerability of species with

Fig. 1. A simplified representation of the main impacts of climate change on cetaceans.

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 climate change and cetaceans 205

restricted geographical distributions, which have little or no In the North Atlantic, long-term monitoring of plankton
opportunity for range expansion. For example, the distribution has revealed recent changes and warmer water species are cur-
of the endangered vaquita (Phocoena sinus) is limited to the rently increasing in the North Sea due to regional climate
warm waters at the northern end of the Gulf of California. warming and the affects of the North Atlantic Oscillation
This is a closed embayment and this species would therefore (Edwards et al., 2007). This change is currently considered
not be able to move northwards to find cooler waters or alterna- detrimental because the warmer water species are not repla-
tive prey if temperatures increase and prey availability changed. cing the colder water species in similar abundances and this
Similarly, river dolphins, such as the Ganges river dolphin is detrimental to other trophic levels including fish larvae.
(Platanista gangetica) and the boto (Inia geoffrensis), may For example, one important zooplankton species has declined
also be particularly vulnerable to temperature changes within by 70% in the North Sea. Edwards et al. (2007) also note that
their narrowly constrained riverine habitats (Learmonth et al., there is a high confidence that these trends are related to
2006; Simmonds & Isaac, 2007). regional climate warming.
There is some potential evidence from the same region that
cetacean distributions have changed. MacLeod et al. (2005)
Indirect effects report a decline in the relative frequencies of strandings and
Climate change will also have indirect impacts on cetaceans sightings of white-beaked dolphins, Lagenorhynchus albiros-
(for some examples see Table 1). In particular, changes in tris, a colder-water species, and a relative increase in strand-
the availability, locality and abundance of food resources, ings and sightings of a warmer-water species, the common
especially for species which have specialized feeding habitats, dolphins, Delphinus delphis. These results suggest a possible
could prove problematic. How cetaceans react to climate- range expansion of common dolphins and a decrease in
mediated food stress is likely to vary from species to species. range of white-beaked dolphins, which may be due to the
An insight might be gained from polar bears, Ursus mari- direct effects of changes in temperature or indirect effects,
timus, which are more easily monitored sea-ice dependent such as competition. This has potentially serious implications
predators than the arctic cetaceans. The threat posed by for white-beaked dolphins, which are generally found in
climate change to them is well recognized and a recent shallow water habitats around north-west Europe, noting
study suggests that one result of reduction in prey seems to there is a lack of suitable shelf waters further north
be novel cannibalistic behaviour (Amstrup et al., 2006). Few (MacLeod et al., 2005).
cetaceans are equipped to prey on their own kind, but some Macleod et al. (2007) have recently suggested that there
do prey on other marine mammal species and there has may also be a correlation between climate-induced reductions
been much recent speculation about how changes in prey in prey (sand eels) and numbers of starving harbour porpoises
availability or other trophic shifts may increase such preda- stranding on the Scottish North Sea coast. Noting that similar
tion, potentially to the detriment of prey populations (see correlations have been suggested for other marine predators
for example, Estes et al., 2006). this is not an unreasonable hypothesis. However, the

Table 1. Notable predicted indirect impacts of climate change on cetacean species.

Decreased reproductive capacity There may be an important link between climate and the reproductive success of
whale species. For example, female sperm whales have been found to have lower
rates of conception after periods of unusually warm sea-surface temperature
(Whitehead, 1997).
Phenotypic mismatching Breeding in many species may be timed to coincide with maximum abundance of
suitable prey, either for the lactating mother or the calf at weaning. Therefore, any
changes in the environmental conditions that determine prey abundance may
cause a mismatch in synchrony between predator and prey, either in time or
location (or both). Migratory cetaceans that travel long-distances between feeding
and breeding areas may be particularly vulnerable to this phenotypic
mismatching, which is already being observed in several migratory bird species
(Wormworth & Mallon, 2006).
Increased prevalence of and/or susceptibility to disease Climate change also has the potential to increase pathogen development and
survival rates, disease transmission and host susceptibility (Harvell et al., 2002).
Higher temperatures may physiologically stress host organisms, increasing their
susceptibility to some diseases, especially if they are at the upper end of their
thermal tolerance (Lafferty et al., 2004). Climate change is expected to affect the
range and migratory patterns of many marine mammals, which in turn could
lead to a spread of viruses and the introduction of novel pathogens to naı̈ve
populations. Warmer waters may also favour the prevalence of some pathogens
or toxic algal blooms. It may not be coincidental that in the past few decades there
has been an apparent increase in large-scale disease associated mortality events
such as that of striped dolphins (Stenella coeruleoalba) in the Mediterranean Sea
in 1990 and other species elsewhere (Simmonds & Mayer, 1997).
Loss of habitat Whilst oceanic cetaceans are unlikely to be directly affected by rises in sea levels,
important habitats for coastal species and species that require coastal bays and
lagoons for breeding, such as grey whales (Eschrichtius robustus) and humpback
whales (Megaptera novaeangliae), could be adversely affected.

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 206 mark p. simmonds and wendy j. eliott

data-set on which Macleod et al. based their suggestion is narwhal appear to be the most sensitive species, primarily
small and Thompson et al. (2007) have provided a critique because of their reliance on sea-ice, their specialized feeding
of the original paper concluding that ‘assessments of relation- and in the case of the narwhal its wintering grounds within
ships between diet and starvation require more detailed analy- the ice fields (Laidre et al., 2008). The least sensitive species
sis’. This issue highlights the difficulty of making cause – effect were the ringed seal, Phoca hispida, and the bearded seal,
associations in complex systems; an issue likely to bedevil Erignathus barbatus which have large circumpolar distributions,
future research efforts. Climate change induced impacts are large population sizes and flexible habitat requirements. Laidre
also likely to compound and exacerbate other threats by redu- et al. (2008) rank the bowhead, which migrates away from the
cing resilience and adaptive capacity because of resource ice in the winter, somewhere in the middle and the widely-
deployment to competing needs. distributed beluga as the least sensitive cetacean.
In addition to the nine marine mammals considered by
Laidre et al. (2008), nine other marine mammal species,
including five cetaceans, ‘seasonally occupy’ the Arctic and
CHANGES IN THE POLAR REGIONS subarctic habitats. Moore & Huntington (2008) suggest that
these animals may move further north, remain there longer
The Arctic and compete with the endemic Arctic species.
In the Arctic, average temperatures have increased at almost Laidre et al. (2008) highlight the threats coming from
twice the global average rate in the past 100 years (IPPC, chemical pollution and hunting, noting historical over-
2007a). As a result, Arctic sea-ice extent has decreased by exploitation of bowheads and ongoing takes of belugas, nar-
14% since the 1970s, and simulations suggest that this whals, walrus and polar bears in West Greenland. They add,
sea-ice retreat is likely to accelerate so rapidly that by 2040 moreover, for those populations currently being exploited at
the Arctic basin could become nearly ice-free during some level, it may be impossible (with the current ability to
summer (Holland et al., 2006). Walsh (2008) emphasizes assess population size and trend) to accurately detect and
the seasonal nature of warming (most pronounced in the describe some of the more subtle consequences of climate
autumn and winter) and notes the likelihood of increased pre- warming given that the effects can only be detected with
cipitation, storminess, ocean mixing, ocean wave generation reasonable accuracy for a few species (e.g. ringed seals and
and coastal flooding. In the face of these changes, it seems polar bears) and that the magnitude of the uncertainty sur-
likely that there will be significant losses of polar ‘specialist’ rounding the effects of the simultaneous harvest will be
species and a general shift of more temperate species large’. Despite this they state that it is critical to continue
towards the poles, either due to animals searching out pre- efforts to assess the impacts of climate change.
ferred temperature conditions or due to changes in the distri-
bution and abundance of prey species. The arrival of more The Antarctic
temperate animals could lead to increased competition for In the Antarctic peninsular region, climate change is also
resources (for a discussion, see Huntington & Moore, 2008). having an accelerated impact and air and upper ocean temp-
The ability of species that depend on ‘icy’ habitats to adapt eratures are increasing. The Southern Ocean supports more
to long-term changes in sea-ice extent and dynamics, and the than 50% of the world’s marine mammal biomass, including
resulting changes in prey availability, is presently an unquan- around one-fifth of the world’s cetacean species (Boyd,
tifiable but marked concern. Furthermore, as the extent and 2002) and the eight species of baleen whale found in this
duration of ice cover in the Arctic decreases, there will be area feed almost entirely on krill, Euphausia superba. These
greater opportunities for human use and exploitation of whales feed very little, if at all, outside of the Antarctic, and
areas that were previously inaccessible. For example, climate use the rich Antarctic waters to build energy stores that
change induced-reductions in sea-ice are likely to make the support their often extensive travels and their reproductive
North-west Passage (the route connecting the Atlantic with activities throughout the rest of the year.
the Pacific Ocean through Canada’s high Arctic) more easily Krill overwinter under the sea-ice, and feed on algae found
navigable. This will enable increased boat traffic for longer under the ice surface. Recent studies have revealed that krill
lengths of time, the northward movement of commercial populations have declined by as much as 80% in the Scotia
fishing fleets, and greater opportunities for oil and gas Sea and northern Antarctic Peninsula since the 1970s, with
exploration and development. These activities will further the declines linked to the loss of winter sea-ice (Atkinson
contribute to increased acoustic and chemical pollution, et al., 2004). Any decline in krill will have serious implications
increased collisions between whales and ships, and increased for the Southern Ocean food webs, including the whales. Nicol
bycatch. et al. (2008) reviewed the implications of climate change for
Three species of cetacean occupy Arctic waters year round: baleen whales in this region, stressing the significance of the
the narwhal, Monodon monoceros, and beluga, Delphinapterus high dependence of whale species on krill and that, whilst
leucas, which are medium sized toothed whales, and the there might be natural high variability in krill abundance
bowhead, Balaena mysticetus, which is the only baleen which whales have adapted to, the extent of this adaptability
whale endemic to the Arctic. Laidre et al. (2008) attempt to in the longer term remains largely unknown. Nicol et al.
quantify the sensitivity of Arctic marine mammals to (2008) also emphasize that whilst the sea-ice zone has sup-
climate change and suggest three dimensions of sensitivity: ported enormous populations of animals in the past, including
the first based on the narrowness of distribution and special- whales, these populations, were heavily exploited to near
ization in feeding; the second on seasonal dependence on ice; extinction by whaling operations in the last century. Hence,
and the third relating to sea-ice as a structure for access to prey climate change may affect recovery of these populations,
and predator avoidance. Using this index they conclude that and the interactions between past and present lethal takes of
the hooded seal, Cystophora cristata, the polar bear and the whales and climate change will need careful consideration.

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 climate change and cetaceans 207

Although loss of sea-ice and resulting krill declines have are listed as Critically Endangered. The IUCN commented
been observed in some areas, it is important to note that that the real situation could be much worse as more than
such changes are not being uniformly observed around the half of the cetacean species (44 species) were classed as Data
whole Antarctic continent. However, the evidence gathered Deficient. The status of two species, however, was regarded
to date does reveal significant changes that could be indicative as having improved: humpback whales, Megaptera novaean-
of what may follow in other places in due course. gliae, and southern right whales, Eubalaena australis.
The statement released by the IUCN to coincide with the
release of the new Cetacean Red List noted that climate
COMPOUNDING INFLUENCES change was starting to affect whales and that the distribution
of many species was changing (IUCN, 2008). However, it is
As Schiedek et al. (2007) note, ‘many types of stressors act unclear whether or not the IUCN was able to take climate
synergistically which makes it more difficult to discriminate change into account directly in these latest categorizations.
between the various environmental threats in the field’. This would probably not have affected the most endangered
Clearly there are many factors impacting on cetaceans, includ- species categorizations but it might have had consequences
ing bycatch, unsustainable hunting for some populations and for cetaceans regarded as being at lower risk and potentially
also chemical and noise pollution. Harley et al. (2006) include those humpback whales that feed in polar regions
comment that synergistic effects between climate and other where prey may be being reduced. As an important starting
anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will point for much conservation action, the IUCN now faces a sig-
likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Another potentially nificant challenge itself in making its Red List adaptable to the
important problem in the marine environment is ‘ocean acid- impacts—some of which may be unprecedentedly swift—of
ification’. Dissolved atmospheric carbon dioxide increases the climate change. The recent plight of the Chinese or Yangtze
concentration of hydrogen ions, which combine with carbon- River Dolphin, Lipotes vexillifer, emphasizes the fragility of
ate ions, thus leaving a net decrease of carbonate ions in the such species with very restricted habitats. The Yangtze river
ocean. Many invertebrate organisms depend on the presence dolphin was listed as Critically Endangered (Possibly
of adequate carbonate ions to build their calcium carbonate Extinct) by the IUCN.
shells, including the coccolithophores, pteropods, gastropods
and foraminifera which are major food sources for fish and
some whale species (Raven et al., 2005). Arguably, the effect
MANAGING IMPACTS AND
on cephalopods—important prey for many deep-diving
DEVELOPING APPROPRIATE
cetaceans—may be of even greater significance. Cold polar
RESPONSE MECHANISMS
waters are naturally less saturated with carbonate ions than
warmer waters, so high-latitudes are likely to be the first to
Ragen et al. (2008) suggest that ‘on a daily basis, societies are
suffer measurable impacts of ocean acidification and the result-
making decisions that will influence climate change for
ing reduced carbonate availability (Doney, 2006).
decades or even centuries to come’. Whilst the main priority
Burek et al. (2008) note that some of the indirect effects of
in resolving climate change must be reducing greenhouse
climate change on animal health in the Arctic will likely
gas emissions, to ensure global temperatures are kept at less
include changes in pathogen transmission and effects on
than a 28C increase compared to pre-industrial levels, it is
body condition due to changes in prey and toxicant exposures
clear that changes in our climate are already occurring, and
and other factors associated with changes in human use.
will continue to occur in the future even under the most opti-
Schiedek et al. (2007) reviewed the likely interactions
mistic predictions for emission reduction. It is now therefore
between climate change and chemical pollution. They con-
necessary for climate change considerations to be incorpor-
clude that contaminant pathways, including their entry into
ated into conservation plans, assessments and strategies for
food webs and their sequestering in sediments, are affected
cetaceans (Simmonds & Isaac, 2007), and that efforts be
by climate variables and that it will be important to study
made to urgently increase the resilience of ecosystems and
this further in the future.
species to climate change.
Concerns about climate change impacting cetaceans are not
new. MacGarvin & Simmonds (1996), for example, provided a
CURRENT CETACEAN STATUS
list of likely implications and the International Whaling
Commission (IWC) held a Climate Change Workshop in
Much conservation action is generated, accelerated or other-
1996 to address such issues. The primary issue now is
wise modified by consideration of the ‘status’ of a species or
whether or not we are now in a better position to predict out-
a population and the IUCN ‘Red List’ is widely accepted as
comes and act accordingly to mitigate impacts wherever poss-
the definitive source of such information. Categories range
ible. The current context, compared to say some twelve years
from ‘Critically Endangered’ to less threatened designations
ago, is that climate change signals are stronger, climate
and there is an additional category termed ‘Data Deficient’
change is an accepted phenomenon (important in terms of
(indicating that not enough information was available to
generating political support for responses), and the power of
make a sound judgement). The IUCN draws on expertise
modelling approaches is greatly enhanced.
from all over the world to make these judgements and in its
We suggest, further to our review of the latest literature,
latest cetacean Red List (released in August, 2008), it con-
that there are a number of ways in which the threat posed
cluded that nearly a quarter of cetacean species are considered
by climate change to cetaceans might be addressed:
threatened, and of these, more than 10% (nine species) are
listed as Endangered or Critically Endangered (IUCN, † the application of highly precautionary and adaptive con-
2008). In addition, two subspecies and 12 subpopulations servation and management actions;

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 208 mark p. simmonds and wendy j. eliott

† improved international co-operation in relation to conser- a resolution calling for its own Scientific Council to afford
vation actions; and climate change high priority in its future programme of activi-
† appropriate multinational research programmes focused ties, including by identifying priorities for future research and
on informing the first two points. the identification of the migratory species, based on best avail-
able evidence, which will likely be most affected. The extent to
Precautionary and adaptive management which this call for action has been successful may be apparent
and conservation at the next CMS Conference of the Parties, in December 2008.
Climate change and its impacts on cetacean species were a
Hansen et al. (2003) have suggested that there are three main major topic of discussion at the Scientific Committee of the
ways to respond to the threat to natural systems from climate 59th meeting of the IWC in 2007 and again in the following
change: year (IWC, 2008). Harley et al. (2006) comment that the
1) protection of adequate and appropriate space: this should IWC’s Scientific Committee is uniquely well-placed to
include the protection of habitats critical for breeding or address this matter, noting that the committee’s membership
feeding and the protection of climate refugia areas; those has considerable expertise in modelling. This is also the forum
areas that are less vulnerable to changes in climate than that knows most about previous removals and recoveries,
others. In the design of protected areas and other zoning which will be important factors in modelling future prospects.
and conservation strategies, forward planning must be The IWC Scientific Committee will be holding a workshop on
employed to determine how the geography of the most climate change impacts on cetaceans in March 2009. The
important attributes will be affected by climate-induced workshop aims to bring together and enhance collaborations
factors; amongst experts in cetacean biology, modelling, marine eco-
2) limiting all non-climate related stresses: as the non-climate systems and climate change, as well as improving the conser-
stressors are often more locally controllable than climate vation outcomes for cetaceans under climate change scenarios
change, increased efforts must be made to reduce them; and described by the 4th Report of the IPPC. Four complementary
3) adaptive management: given the uncertainty about the approaches have been identified to facilitate this:
exact nature of the impact of climate change on cetaceans
and their responses, a responsive and flexible management 1 identifying existing long-term cetacean environmental
approach is required, combined with rigorous monitoring. datasets that can be analysed and included in models in
relation to climate change variables;
Robinson et al. (2008) suggest that the most important 2 determining patterns that may be attributable to climate
policy goal should be to encourage the maintenance of large, change via analyses of these datasets;
genetically-diverse populations that will enhance the ability 3 modelling mechanisms to consider cause and effect
of migratory species to adapt to, or exploit, the changes relationships, provide predictions and identify data gaps
caused by global climate modifications. Ragen et al. (2008) that, if filled, would improve our understanding of the
call for proactive, adaptive and precautionary management effects of climate change on cetaceans; and
and provide a comprehensive list of protection measures 4 providing timely scientific advice related to cetacean
that could be enacted to address the variety of climate-related research, conservation and management via peer-reviewed
hazards likely to develop. Their list includes hunting bans or publications.
limits, vessel corridors, speed limits and observer pro-
grammes, regulations on fossil fuel and other mineral extrac- Long term-datasets are clearly key in this plan and the
tions, clean-up of contaminated sites and prevention of Scientific Committee noted that they should preferably
further contamination, and improved fisheries management. come from regions with a strong climate change and, to
Stirling & Parkinson (2006) have similarly recommended date, has identified two key studies: one in the Arctic, featur-
that a precautionary approach should now be taken to the ing eastern North Pacific grey whales and the Berring –
hunting of the polar bear. Chukchi – Beaufort stock of bowheads, and the other in the
Another approach to mitigate the adverse impacts of Western Antarctic Peninsula, focused on southern right
climate change on cetacean populations is likely to be the cre- whales and possibly humpbacks and minkes too (IWC, 2008).
ation of marine protected areas in which negative impacts— The IWC’s first workshop on climate change and ozone
such as fisheries bycatch and ship-strikes—can be strictly con- depletion was held in March 1996 in the USA. This workshop
trolled. These areas would ideally provide protection for key concluded that ‘current attempts to predict the effects of
habitat areas, such as breeding and feeding zones, but given climate change on cetaceans are severely limited by the
that climate change may cause distribution shifts they also inherent uncertainties in Global Climate Models (GCMs)
need to be sufficiently large and/or flexible to allow for such and other models, the mismatch of scales. . . , the lack of
shifts and, where appropriate, should extend to the climate knowledge of biological responses of both cetaceans and
refugia proposal of Hansen et al. (2003). their prey and the lack of suitable models (including a
Guiding Conceptual Model of how cetaceans interact with
their environment) and data for several of the many stages
International cooperation of the predictive process’ (IWC, 1997). The Scientific
Several international bodies have recently turned their atten- Committee in 2008, however, noted that the 4th IPCC
tion to climate change and impacts on cetaceans. A workshop Report provides ‘analyses at temporal and spatial scales of
was held on this topic at the last Conference of the Parties to relevance to cetaceans’ (IWC, 2008) and, the IWC Scientific
the Convention of Migratory Species (CMS) and a publication Committee now feels that it can progress this issue. The
was subsequently produced by the convention based on this IWC held a related workshop in Italy in 2004 on ‘habitat
workshop (UNEP/CMS, 2006). The convention also passed degradation’, which primarily considered the issue of how

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 climate change and cetaceans 209

the many various environmental stressors affecting whales, otherwise slow or fail to prioritize climate change-related
including climate change, might be best considered in combi- research and implementation of remediation measures.
nation (Anon, 2006). A new paradigm is arising for conservation. We will need
The changing climate is obviously also a matter of concern to be much swifter in our actions and reactions to emerging
for the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine developments and changes as they arise. We will also need
Living Resources (CCAMLR), which recently held a joint to be more precautionary, reducing other pressures on popu-
workshop with the IWC on Antarctic Marine Ecosystem lations where possible, and more responsive as new infor-
Models. Although the report of this meeting is not yet avail- mation becomes available. For example, if cetaceans change
able, the initiative is a good example of international treaty their distributions and establish new critical habitat areas,
bodies working together in a timely fashion to address a conservation and management efforts will have to move
matter of mutual interest. In addition, we note that the with them. Given that the ‘robustness’ or resilience of popu-
European Cetacean Society has made the ‘theme’ of its 2009 lations (i.e. relating to their size, range, genetic variability
annual meeting climate change (Panigada, personal and so forth) will likely affect their ability to survive the
communication). impacts of climate change (potentially in combination with
other factors), consideration needs to be given to maintaining
such resilience. The focus of much conservation work has his-
Multinational research programmes troically been on critically endangered species, however atten-
tion must also be given to ensuring that other species and
Laidre et al. (2008) comment that the ability to develop effec-
populations remain robust and resilient to the changes that
tive conservation measures for most Arctic species in relation
are predicted to occur throughout the marine biome.
to climate change has been hampered by insufficient data on
polar amplification of warming trends, incomplete infor-
mation on Arctic species distributions and life history traits.
Whilst the basic biology of Arctic marine mammals is reason- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ably well known for most species some information on popu-
lation status is missing and this is generally because it is Thanks to Simon Keith and Lucy Molleson for their assistance
difficult and expensive to obtain. and to our referees for their helpful comments on an earlier
Harley et al. (2006) suggest that the main directions for briefer version of this paper.
future research will include identifying key demographic
transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting
changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically domi-
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