954 / 3 TRIAL STPM 2014

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UPPER 6
MATHEMATICS (T)
PAPER 3
One and a half hours

SEKOLAH MENENGAH KEBANGSAAN METHODIST (ACS) KLANG

Date : 08.10.2014 Time : 11.30 - 1.00 pm
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Instructions to candidates:
DO NOT OPEN THIS QUESTION PAPER UNTIL YOU ARE TOLD TO DO SO
Answer all questions in Section A and only one question in Section B..
All necessary working should be shown clearly.
Non-exact numerical answers may be given correct to three significant figures, or one decimal place in the case of
angles in degrees, unless a different level of accuracy is specified in the question.
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Prepared and Checked by Verified by,

…………………………. . ………………………………
Mr Chan Seuk Kong Ms Krishnaveni Krishnaratnam
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Section A [45 marks]
Answer all questions in this section
1. The table below shows the number of children in 20 families.
Number of children 0 1 2 3 4 5
Number of families 2 7 5 4 1 1
(a) Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the number of children in the families. [5 marks]
(b) Find the percentage of the families with a number of children less than the mean. [3 marks]

2. From the past experience, the probability that a new worker in a company can complete his daily tasks
satisfactorily is 0.8 if he has undergone the company’s in house training and 0.4 if he has not undergone the
training. If 85% of the new workers has undergone training, find
(a) the probability that a new worker of the company can complete his tasks satisfactorily, [ 3 marks]
(b) the probability that a new worker of the company who has not undergone training given that he can
complete his tasks satisfactorily. [ 2 marks]

3. The discrete random variable X represents the number of air-conditioners sold by a company in a week. X
has a Poisson distribution with mean  and E ( X 2 ) = 12.

(a) Determine the value of  . [3 marks]

(b) Calculate the probability that five air-conditioners are sold in four weeks. [3 marks]

4. The speeds of 120 randomly selected cars are measured as they pass a camera on a freeway. Denoting the

x  (x  100)
2
speed by x kmh－1 the results are summarised by = 11779.2 and = 4706.93.

Find (a) unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance. [4 marks]
(b) an approximate symmetrical 96% confidence interval for the population mean. [3 marks]
5. An egg producer sets a target that at least 60% of his egg production should be grade A. In a random
sample of 80 eggs, 42 are found to be grade A. Test , at the 5% significance level, whether egg production is
failing to reach the target. [6 marks]
State what you understand by the expression ‘at the 5% significance level’ in the context of this question.
[2 marks]
6. A farmer kept a record of the time of delivery of each calf and the type of assistance the cow needed. The
following table summarises some of his data.
Day Night Using a chi-squared test, at the 5 % level of
Unattended 42 58 significance, determine whether there is any
Farmer assisted 63 117 association between type of birth and time of the
Veterinary supervised 85 35 day.
[11 marks]

Section B [15 marks]

Answer only one question in this section

7. Two red balls and two white balls are placed in a bag. Balls are drawn one by one, at random and without
replacement. The random variable X is the number of white balls drawn before the first red ball is drawn.
1
(i) Show that P ( X = 1) = , and find the rest of the probability distribution of X. [5 marks]
3
5
(ii) Find E(X) and show that Var (X) = . [5 marks]
9
(iii) The sample mean for 80 independent observations of X is denoted by X . Using a suitable
approximation, find P ( X > 0.75). [5 marks]

 h
 , if x  0
A continuous random variable X has the probability density function f ( x)   (2  x)
5
8.
 0, if x  0

(a) Find the value of the constant h. [3 marks]
(b) Find the cumulative distribution function F(x) of X. [4 marks]
7
(c) Find the value of x such that P(X < x ) = [3 marks]
8
(d) Find E( X+2) [3 marks]
(e) Hence, deduce E(X) [2 marks]
Marking Scheme TRIAL STPM 2014 ACS KLANG
1. The table below shows the number of children in 20 families.
Number of children 0 1 2 3 4 5
Number of families 2 7 5 4 1 1
(a) Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the number of children in the families. [5 marks]
(b) Find the percentage of the families with a number of children less than the mean. [3 marks]
ANSWER:

(a) Mean , x =
 fx = 0(2)  1(7)  2(5)  3(4)  4(1)  5(1) 38
= = 1.9 M1 A1
f 2  7  5  4 11 20

 fx 2
= 02(2) + 12(7) + 22(5) + 32(4) + 42(1) + 52(1) = 104 B1

Standard deviation =  =
 fx 2

 ( x )2 =
104
 (1.9)2 =
159
=1.261 M1 A1
f 20 10

(b) Number of families less than 1.9 children = 2 + 7 = 9 B1

9
Percentage = 100 = 45 % M1 A1
20

2. From the past experience, the probability that a new worker in a company can complete his daily tasks
satisfactorily is 0.8 if he has undergone the company’s in house training and 0.4 if he has not undergone the
training. If 85% of the new workers has undergone training, find
(a) the probability that a new worker of the company can complete his tasks satisfactorily, [ 3 marks]
(b) the probability that a new worker of the company who has not undergone training given that he can
complete his tasks satisfactorily. [ 2 marks]
ANSWER :
S = workers can complete their tasks satisfactorily
K= workers have attended training course

(a) P( S ) = P( SK) + P(SK’)

P(S|K)=0.8 S P( SK) = (0.85)(0.8) + (0.15)(0.4) M1 M1
K = 0.74 A1
P(K)=0.85 P(S’|K)=0.2 S’ P(S’K)
P( K ' S ) (0.15)(0.4)
(b) P(K’ | S ) = = M1
P( S ) 0.74
0.06 3
P(K’)=0.15 P(S|K’)=0.4 S P(SK’) = =
K’ 0.74 37
P(S’|K’)=0.6 S’ P(S’K’)
= 0.08108 A1
3. The discrete random variable X represents the number of air-conditioners sold by a company in a week.
X has a Poisson distribution with mean  and E ( X 2 ) = 12.
(a) Determine the value of  . [3 marks]
(b) Calculate the probability that five air-conditioners are sold in four weeks. [3 marks]
ANSWER :
X ~ Po (  ) and given E ( X 2 ) = 12

Mean, E (X) =  and Variance , Var (X) = 

(a) From Var (X) = 
E (X )  [E (X)] =
2 2

12  [  ] = 2
 M1
 +  12 = 0
2

(   3 ) (  + 4) = 0
=3 , =4 M1
Mean of Poisson distribution must be positive , =3 A1
(b) Mean for four weeks = 3 X 4 = 12 B1
Y ~ Po (12)
e12 (12)5
P( Y = 5) = = 0.012741 M1 A1
5!

4. The speeds of 120 randomly selected cars are measured as they pass a camera on a freeway. Denoting
the speed by x kmh－1 the results are summarised by  x = 11779.2 and  (x  100) = 4706.93.
2

Find (a) unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance. [4 marks]
(b) an approximate symmetrical 96% confidence interval for the population mean. [3 marks]
ANSWER :

(a) unbiased estimates of the population mean, ̂ = x =

 x = 11779.2 = 98.16 B1
n 120

 (x  100)
2
= 4706.93.

x 2
200  x + n(100) 2
= 4706.93

x 2
200(11779.2)+ (120)(100)2 = 4706.93

x 2
= 1,160,546.93 B1

   x 
2
1 
unbiased estimates of the population variance, ˆ =
n 1 
 x  n 
2 2

 

1  11779.2  
2

= 1160546.93   = 36.14 M1 A1
120  1  120 

symmetrical 96% confidence interval for the population mean

ˆ 2 36.14
x  z = 98.16  2.054 B1 for 2.054 M1 formula
2
n 120
= ( 97.033, 99.287 ) A1
5. An egg producer sets a target that at least 60% of his egg production should be grade A. In a
random sample of 80 eggs, 42 are found to be grade A. Test , at the 5% significance level, whether egg
production is failing to reach the target. [6 marks]
State what you understand by the expression ‘at the 5% significance level’ in the context of this
question. [2 marks]
ANSWER :
Let p denote the proportion of eggs that are grade A eggs and
p̂ denote the sample proportion of eggs that are grade A eggs
42
Given n=80 , p̂ = = 0.525 Hypothesis : H0 : p = 0.6
80
H1 : p < 0.6
42 (0.6)(0.4) 30
Test statistic :  0.6 M1 standard error ( , , 0.05477)
pˆ  po 80
z   1.369 80 100
po (1  po ) 0.6(1  0.6)
n 80
M1 formula , A1

Level of significance : α = 0.05

Critical region : Reject Ho if z < －1.645 B1 (－1.645)
Conclusion : Since z=－1.369 >－1.645, M1 compare
there is not enough evidence to reject Ho at α = 0.05,
The proportion of eggs that are grade A is 60%. A1
At 5% significance level refers to a probability of 0.05 that the test statistic lies in the critical region under H o .
In this context, we will reject Ho B1
if the test value (sample proportion of the 80 eggs that are grade A eggs) lies in the lower tail 5% of the
distribution of the sample proportion. B1

6. A farmer kept a record of the time of delivery of each calf and the type of assistance the cow needed.
The following table summarises some of his data.
Day Night Using a chi-squared test, at the 5 % level of
Unattended 42 58 significance, determine whether there is any
Farmer assisted 63 117 association between type of birth and time of
Veterinary supervised 85 35 the day. [11 marks]
ANSWER :
H0 : There is NO association between type of birth and time of the day
H1 : There is association between type of birth and time of the day
Alternative
H0 : The type of birth and time of the day of delivery are independent
H1 : The type of birth and time of the day of delivery are NOT independent B1 both
Day Night Total *values in brackets are the EXPECTED
Unattended 42 (47.5) 58 (52.5) 100 value, Ei
Farmer assisted 63 (85.5) 117 (94.5) 180 M1 any 2 row/column total correct , A1 all
Veterinary supervised 85 (57) 35 (63) 120 total correct
190 210 400 M1 any 2 Ei correct, A1 all Ei correct

Test statistic : 2 calc = (42  47.5)  (63  85.5)  (85  57)  (58  52.5)  (117  94.5)  (35  63)
2 2 2 2 2 2

47.5 85.5 57 52.5 94.5 63

= 0.6368 +5.9211 + 13.754 + 0.5762+ 5.3571 + 12.444 M1 first and last term correct M1 all correct
= 38.69 A1
Critical Region : Degree of freedom 
=(3－1)(2－1) = 2 B1
Reject H0 if 2 calc> 5.991 A1
Conclusion : Since 2 calc= 38.69 > 5.991, there is enough evidence to reject H0 at α = 0.05.
There is association between type of birth and time of the day. A1

7. Two red balls and two white balls are placed in a bag. Balls are drawn one by one, at random and
without replacement. The random variable X is the number of white balls drawn before the first red ball is
1
drawn. (i) Show that P ( X = 1) = , and find the rest of the probability distribution of X. [5 marks]
3
5
(ii) Find E(X) and show that Var (X) = . [5 marks]
9
(iii) The sample mean for 80 independent observations of X is denoted by X . Using a suitable
approximation, find P ( X > 0.75). [5 marks]
ANSWER :
X = number of white balls drawn before the first red ball is drawn
W = white ball drawn , R = red ball drawn

2 2 1
P(W|W)=1/3 W P(WW)=P(X=2) (i) P( X = 1) =  = M1 A1
W 4 3 3
P(W)=2/4 P(R|W)=2/3 R P(RW)=P(X=1) 2 1 1
P( X = 2) =  = M1A1
4 3 6
2 1 2 2 2 1
P( X = 0) = = Alternative (  )+(  ) B1
4 2 4 3 4 3
P(R)=2/4 P(W|R)=2/3 W P(WR)=P(X=0)
R
P(R|R)=1/3 R P(RR)=P(X=0)

Probability distribution table of X

x 0 1 2
P(X = x) 1 1 1
2 3 6

1 11 2
(ii) E(X) =  x.P( X  x) = (0) 2 +(1) 3 + (2) =
6 3
M1A1

1 1 1
E(X 2) =   x .P( X  x)
2
= (02) +(12) + (22) = 1
2 3 6
B1

2 2 5
Var (X) = E(X 2)  [ E(X)]2 = 1 ( ) = M1 A1
3 9
2 5
(iii) Population Mean =  = and Variance= 2 =
3 9
Using Central Limit Theorem , with large sample ,n = 80
2 2 1
X ~ N ( , ) X ~N( , ) B1, B1
n 3 144
2 2
X X
Z= 3 = 3
1 1
144 12
2 2
X
0.75 
P ( X > 0.75) = P ( 3> 3) M1
1 1
12 12
= P (Z > 1) = 0.15866 M1 A1
  h
 , if x  0
8. A continuous random variable X has the probability density function f ( x)   (2  x)5
 0, if x  0

(a) Find the value of the constant h. [3 marks]
(b) Find the cumulative distribution function F(x) of X. [4 marks]
7
(c) Find the value of x such that P(X < x ) = [3 marks]
8
(d) Find E( X+2) [3 marks]
(e) Hence, deduce E(X) [2 marks]
ANSWER :
 h
(a) 
0 (2  x)5
dx  1 M1 (c) P(X < x ) =
7
since P(X < x ) = P(X < x ) = F(x)
8
 h 
 16 7
F(x) =  1= M1
 4(2  x) 4   1 M1 (2  x) 4
8
 0
16 1
=
h (2  x) 4 8
0( )=1 1
8

64 (2+x)4 = 128 M1
h = 64 A1 x = 1.3636 A1
(b) For x<0 : F(x) = 0 

x
(d) E(X+2) =  ( x  2). f ( x)dx

0
For x > 0 : F(x) = f ( x)dx  64


= ( x  2) dx M1
x 64
0 (2  x)5

0
=  0dx +
(2  x)5
dx B1  64


0
= dx
0 (2  x)4
x
 16   64 

= 0+  4
M1 =  3
M1
 (2  x)  0  3(2  x)  0
16 8 8
= +1 M1 =0   = A1
(2  x) 4 3 3
8
 0, x0 (e) Hence, E(X+2) =
 3
F ( x)   16 A1
 (2  x) 4  1, x  0
8
E(X) + 2 = M1
 3
8 2
E(X) =  2 = A1
3 3