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Central Limit Theorem

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Central Limit Theorem

The mean of the distribution of sample


means (SRS – simple random sample)
The standard deviation of the
distribution of sample means
These figures illustrate the sampling distributions of sample
means based on different sample sizes:

(a) n = 1
(b) n = 10
(c) n = 20
(d) n = 70
No matter the shape of the population, the
distribution of x-bars tends toward Normality
Central Limit Theorem - Summary

 specifies a theoretical distribution


 formulated by the selection of all possible random samples of a fixed
size n
 a sample mean is calculated for each sample and the distribution of
sample means is considered
The mean and standard deviation of
the samples means

 The mean of the sample means is equal to the mean of the


population from which the samples were drawn.
𝜇𝑥ҧ = 𝜇
 The standard deviation of the samples means is s divided by the
square root of n.
𝜎
𝜎𝑥ҧ = 𝑛
Implications of the CLT

 If the sample is normal, then the sampling distribution of the means will also
be normal, no matter the sample size.
 When the sample population is approximately symmetric, the distribution
becomes approximately normal for relatively small values of n (as small as
15).
 When the sample population is skewed, the sample size must be larger
(i.e., 30 or more) before the sampling distribution of means becomes
approximately normal.
Let’s visualize CLT

https://vimeo.com/75089338
As an example, say that we find a school that has 1200 students, with exactly 200
students each in grades 7 through 12. The population distribution is, as the following
figure shows, definitely not normal.
 We take a sample of 25 students and calculate the mean grade level for
the sample, which we find to be 9.52. We then take another sample and
find that its mean is 9.32.
 By the nature of random sampling, we will get a slightly different result
each time we take a new sample. For example, the following table shows
the mean we get from 10 separate samples, each of size n = 25, drawn
from the population.
population. means across 1,000 samples would look like the following.
Example

A certain brand of tires has a mean life of 25,000 miles with a standard
deviation of 1600 miles.

What is the probability that the mean life of 64 tires is less than 24,600 miles?
Solution

The sampling distribution of the means has a mean of 25,000 miles (the
population mean)
m = 25000 mi.

and a standard deviation (i.e.. standard error) of:


1600/8 = 200
Convert 24,600 mi. to a z-score and use the z – table to determine the
required probability.

z = (24600-25000)/200 = -2
P(z< -2) = 0.0228

or 2.28% of the sample means will be less than 24,600 mi.


Practice

 1. A certain group of EI recipients receives benefits averaging $340 per


week with a standard deviation of $60. Consider the population to be
normally distributed. If a random sample of 25 people is taken, what is the
probability their mean benefit will be greater than $ 370 per week?
 2. A population of 31 year-old males has a mean salary of $59,321 with a
standard deviation of $4,120. If a sample of 100 men is taken, what is the
probability their mean salaries will be less than $58,000?
 There are 220 dogs at a dog show who weigh an average of 11 pounds,
with a standard deviation of 7 pounds. Consider the weights of dogs to be
normally distributed.
 a) If a dog is chosen at random, what is the probability it has an average
weight of greater than 7 pounds and less than 15 pounds?
 b) If 50 dogs are chosen, what is the probability that their mean weight is
less than 8 pounds?

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