Inflation Option Pricing
Inflation Option Pricing
Inflation Option Pricing
TRITA-MAT-E 2012:13
ISRN-KTH/MAT/E--12/13--SE
KTH SCI
SE-100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
URL: www.kth.se/sci
Abstract
This thesis presents an overview of strategies for pricing inflation deriva-
tives. The paper is structured as follows. Firstly, the basic definitions
and concepts such as nominal-, real- and inflation rates are introduced.
We introduce the benchmark contracts of the inflation derivatives mar-
ket, and using standard results from no-arbitrage pricing theory, derive
pricing formulas for linear contracts on inflation. In addition, the risk
profile of inflation contracts is illustrated and we highlight how it’s cap-
tured in the models to be studied studied in the paper.
We then move on to the main objective of the thesis and present
three approaches for pricing inflation derivatives, where we focus in
particular on two popular models. The first one, is a so called HJM
approach, that models the nominal and real forward curves and relates
the two by making an analogy to domestic and foreign fx rates. By
the choice of volatility functions in the HJM framework, we produce
nominal and real term structures similar to the popular interest-rate
derivatives model of Hull-White. This approach was first suggested by
Jarrow and Yildirim[1] and it’s main attractiveness lies in that it results
in analytic pricing formulas for both linear and non-linear benchmark
inflation derivatives.
The second approach, is a so called market model, independently
proposed by Mercurio[2] and Belgrade, Benhamou, and Koehler[4]. Just
like the - famous - Libor Market Model, the modeled quantities are ob-
servable market entities, namely, the respective forward inflation indices.
It is shown how this model as well - by the use of certain approxima-
tions - can produce analytic formulas for both linear and non-linear
benchmark inflation derivatives.
The advantages and shortcomings of the respective models are evelu-
ated. In particular, we focus on how well the models calibrate to market
data. To this end, model parameters are calibrated to market prices of
year-on-year inflation floors; and it is evaluated how well market prices
can be recovered by theoretical pricing with the calibrated model param-
eters. The thesis is concluded with suggestions for possible extensions
and improvements.
Contents
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Inflation Basics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1.1 Inflation, nominal value and real value . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1.2 Inflation Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Overview of Inflation-Linked Instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.2.1 Inflation-Linked Bond . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.2.2 Zero Coupon Inflation Swap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.2.3 Year On Year Inflation Swap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.2.4 Inflation Linked Cap/Floor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.3 Inflation and interest rate risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.3.1 Breakeven inflation vs expected inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.3.2 Inflation risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
A Appendix 47
A.1 Change of numeraire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
References 49
Chapter 1
Introduction
1
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION
during the last three months before maturity of the inflation protection instrument.
That is, the last three months it is effectively a nominal instrument.
Pricing
Let Pr (t, TM ) denote the time t real value of 1 unit paid at time TM . Then
N
Pr (t, TM )
I0
expresses the time t real value of receiving N/I0 units at TM , which is the definition
of the payout of the ZCILB. And since the time t real value of the ZCILB is obtained
by normalizing the nominal value with the inflation index we have
ZCILB(t, TM , I0 , N ) N Pr (t, TM )
= (1.2.3)
I(t) I0
Defining the bonds unit value as PIL (t, TM ) := ZCILB(t, TM , 1, 1) we get
Thus the price of the bond is dependent on inflation index levels and the real
discount rate.
In practice, as in the nominal bond market, the inflation bonds issued are typ-
ically coupon bearing. The coupon inflation bond can be replicated as the sum of
2
1.2. OVERVIEW OF INFLATION-LINKED INSTRUMENTS
a series of zero coupon inflation bonds. With C denoting the annual coupon rate
, TM the maturity date, N the contract size , I0 the index value at issue date and
assuming annual coupon frequency, the nominal time t value of a coupon bearing
inflation-linked bond is given as
[ ]
N ∑M
ILB(t, TM , I0 , N ) = C PIL (t, Ti ) + PIL (t, TM )
I0 i=1
[ ] (1.2.5)
I(t) ∑M
= N C Pr (t, Ti ) + Pr (t, TM )
I0 i=1
where b is the so called breakeven inflation rate. In the market, b is quoted such
that the induced TM maturity zero coupon inflation swap has zero value today. It’s
analogous to the par rates quoted in the nominal swap market.
From the payout of the inflation leg, it’s clear that it can be valued in terms of an
inflation linked and a nominal zero coupon bond. However we shall proceed with a
bit more formal derivation as it will be useful when proceeding to more complicated
instrument types.
3
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION
is
[ ]
Xf (TM )
Vf (t) = Bf (t)E Qf
Ft (1.2.8)
Bf (TM )
Note, that for a domestic investor who buys the (foreign) asset Xf , the payout at
time TM is Xf (TM )H(TM ). Now consider a domestic derivative which at time TM
pays out Xf (TM )H(TM ). To avoid arbitrage, the price of this instrument must be
equal to price of the foreign asset multiplied with the spot exchange rate. So we get
the relation
[ ] [ ]
Xf (TM ) H(TM )Xf (TM )
H(t)Bf (t)E Qf
Ft = Bd (t)E Qd Ft (1.2.10)
Bf (TM ) Bd (TM )
Pricing
Using well known results from standard no-arbitrage pricing theory, with obvious
choice of notations, we get the time t value of the inflation leg as
[ ∫ TM ( ) ]
− I(TM )
ZCILS(t, TM , I0 , N ) = N E Qn
e t
rn (u)du
− 1 Ft (1.2.11)
I0
We draw a foreign currency analogy, namely that real prices correspond to foreign
prices and nominal prices correspond to domestic prices. The inflation index value
then corresponds to the domestic currency/foreign currency spot exchange rate.
Applying the result from (1.2.10) we then obtain
[ ∫ TM ] [ ∫ TM ]
rr (u)du rn (u)du
I(t)Pr (t, TM ) = I(t)E Qr e− t
Ft = E
Qn
I(TM ) e− t
Ft
(1.2.12)
Important to note is that these prices do not depend on any assumptions of the
dynamics of the interest rate market, but rather follow from the absence of arbitrage.
This is an imortant result, as it will enable us to calibrate the real rate discount
4
1.2. OVERVIEW OF INFLATION-LINKED INSTRUMENTS
2.6
Swap Rates (EUR)
2.4 Break−Even Inflation Rates (EUR)
2.2
1.8
Rate(%)
1.6
1.4
1.2
0.8
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Maturity(years)
Figure 1.1: Quotes for European nominal- and Zero-Coupon Inflation Swaps, 13
jul-2012
curve from prices of index linked zero-coupon swaps by, for each swap, solving the
par value relation. That is , when entering the contract, the value of the pay leg
should equal the receive leg.
where b is the (market quoted) break-even inflation rate and Pn (0, TM ) can be
recovered from bootstrapping the nominal discount curve.
Figure 1.1 shows quotes for break-even inflation rates and nominal swap rates.
The maturities up to the 10-year mark reveal something interesting. The nominal
swap quote is the fixed rate one would demand in exchange for paying floating
cash flows of EURIBOR until maturity. Whereas the break-even inflation quote is
the fixed rate one would would demand in exchange for paying realized inflation
5
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION
rate until maturity. The gap between the two, i.e. that the swap quote is lower,
indicates that expected inflation is higher than expected EURIBOR. This in turn
implies negative real rates. We discuss break-even inflation visavis expected inflation
in more detail in section (1.3.1).
∑
M
N ψi C (1.2.18)
i=1
Just as for Zero Coupon Inflation swaps , Year On Year Inflation Swaps are quoted
in the market in terms of their fixed coupon. However out of the two, the former
is more liquid , and is considered to be the primary benchmark instrument in the
inflation derivatives market.
Pricing
We can view (1.2.17) as a series of forward starting Zero Coupon Swap Inflation
legs. Then the price of each leg is
[ ∫ Ti ( ) ]
I(Ti )
YYILS(t, Ti−1 , Ti , ψi , N ) = N ψi E Qn e− t
rn (u)du
− 1 Ft (1.2.19)
I(Ti−1 )
If t > Ti−1 so that I(Ti−1 ) is known then it reduces to the pricing of a regular Zero
Coupon Swap Inflation leg. If t < Ti−1 then we use repeated expectation to get
YYILS(t, Ti−1 , Ti , ψi , N )
[ [ ∫ Ti ( ) ] ]
I(Ti )
= N ψi E Qn E Qn e− t
rn (u)du
− 1 FT −1 Ft
I(Ti−1 )
[ ∫T [ ∫T ( ) ] ]
− i−1 − i I(Ti )
− 1 FT −1 Ft
Qn rn (u)du Qn rn (u)du
= N ψi E e t E e T −1
I(Ti−1 )
(1.2.20)
6
1.2. OVERVIEW OF INFLATION-LINKED INSTRUMENTS
Pricing
Setting K := 1 + κ we get the time t value of the payoff (1.2.22) as
ILCFLT(t, Ti−1 , Ti , ψi , K, N, ω)
[ ∫ Ti )]+ ]
[ (
− rn (u)du I(Ti )
= N ψi E e tQn
Ft
ω −K
I(Ti−1 ) (1.2.23)
[[ ( )]+ ]
I(Ti )
= N ψi Pn (t, Ti )E Ti ω −K Ft
I(Ti−1 )
7
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION
2500
2000
Price(basis points)
1500
1000
500
0
20
15 C4.5
C3.5
10 C2.5
C1.5
F2.5
5 F1.5
F0.5
F0
Maturity(years) 0
Strike(%)
Figure 1.2: Quotes for Year-On-Year Inflation Caps and Floors, 13 jul-2012.
8
1.3. INFLATION AND INTEREST RATE RISK
[1 + yr (0, T )]T
To compensate for the inflation risk, i.e. the scenario where realized inflation over
[0, T ] turns out be greater than the expected inflation, the risk averse investor
would demand an additional return on yn , in effect demanding a higher yield than
motivated by inflation expectations
[ ] [ ]
I(T )
[1 + yn (0, T )]T ≥ [1 + yr (0, T )]T E = [1 + yr (0, T )]T E [1 + i(0, T )]T
I0
Denoting the inflation risk premium over [0, T ] as p(0, T ), we can express the nom-
inal return as
[ ]
[1 + yn (0, T )]T = [1 + p(0, T )]T [1 + yr (0, T )]T E [1 + i(0, T )]T
Consequently , break-even inflation rates will include the risk premium , i.e overes-
timate future inflation rates.
Assuming a correction factor c(0, T ) ≥ 0 such that we can rewrite (1.3.2) as
[ ]
E [1 + i(0, T )]T = [1 + c(0, T )]T [1 + E [i(0, T )]]T (1.3.3)
, then we can express the nominal return in the style of the famous Fisher Equation
9
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION
by (1.2.5) and (1.2.16) we can write the price of an ILB in terms of the break-even
inflation curve and the nominal yield curve
[ ]
I(t) ∑M
(1 + b(t, Ti ) + sb )Ti (1 + b(t, TM ) + sb )TM
ILB(t, TM , I0 , N, sb , sn ) = N C T
+
I0 i=1
(1 + yn (t, Ti ) + sn ) i (1 + yn (t, TM ) + sn )TM
(1.3.6)
where sb and sn should equal zero in order for the price to be fair. Thus it’s clear
that the price is sensitive to shifts in the inflation curve as well as to shifts in the
nominal interest curve.
The effect of a parallel shift in the nominal interest curve is then obtained as
[ ]
∂ILB(t, TM , I0 , N, 0, 0) I(t) ∑M
Pr (t, Ti ) Pr (t, TM )
=− N C Ti + TM
∂sn I0 i=1
1 + y n (t, T i ) 1 + yn (t, TM )
(1.3.7)
Since the inflation delta and the nominal yield delta have opposite signs, the net
effect will be small if the inflation and nominal curves are equally shifted. Typically,
a rise in inflation expectation pushes up the nominal interest rates, so it’s natural
to impose some correlation ρn,I between the two, by - for instance - setting sb =
sn × ρn,I . Indeed when modeling the evolution of interest rates and inflation in the
short rate model of Jarrow and Yildirim[1] and the market model of Mercurio[2]
and Belgrade, Benhamou, and Koehler[4], a correlation structure is proposed in the
model dynamics.
10
Chapter 2
2.1 Definitions
Using a foreign currency analogy, Jarrow and Yildirim reasoned that real prices
correspond to foreign prices, nominal prices correspond to domestic prices and the
inflation index corresponds to the spot exchange rate from foreign to domestic
currency. We introduce the notation which will be used throughout this section.
• fk (t, T ): time t instantaneous forward rate for date T where k ∈ {r, n} i.e.
∫T
Pk (t, T ) = e− t
fk (t,s)ds
11
CHAPTER 2. THE HJM FRAMEWORK OF JARROW AND YILDIRIM
The brownian motions are started at 0 and their correlations are given by
dWnP (t) dWrP (t) = ρnr dt
dWnP (t) dWIP (t) = ρnI dt (2.2.2)
dWrP (t) dWIP (t) = ρrI dt
Thus, we will be working with a three-factor model.
Given the initial nominal forward rate curve, fn∗ (0, T ), it’s assumed that the
nominal T -maturity forward rate has a stochastic differential under the objective
measure P given by
dfn (t, T ) = αn (t, T )dt + σn (t, T )dWnP (t)
(2.2.3)
fn (0, T ) = fn∗ (0, T )
where αn is random and σn is deterministic.
Similarly, given the initial market real forward rate curve, fr∗ (0, T ), it’s assumed
that the real T -maturity forward rate has a stochastic differential under the objective
measure P given by
dfr (t, T ) = αr (t, T )dt + σr (t, T )dWrP (t)
(2.2.4)
fr (0, T ) = fr∗ (0, T )
where αn is random and σn is deterministic. The final entity to be modeled is the
inflation index with dynamics
dI(t)
= µI (t)dt + σI (t)dWIP (t) (2.2.5)
I(t)
where µI is random and σI is deterministic. The deterministic volatility in (2.2.5)
implies that the inflation index follows a geometric brownian motion so that the
logarithm of the index will be normally distributed.
Jarrow and Yildirim go on to show the evolutions introduced so far are arbi-
trage free and the market is complete if there exists a unique equivalent probability
measure Q such that
Pn (t, T ) I(t)Pr (t, T ) I(t)Br (t, T )
, and are Q martingales (2.2.6)
Bn (t) Bn (t) Bn (t)
Furthermore, by Girsanov’s theorem, given that {dWnP (t), dWrP (t), dWIP (t)} is a
P -Brownian motion, and that Q is a equivalent probability measure, then there
exists market prices of risk {λn (t), λr (t), λI (t)} such that
∫ t
WkQ (t) = WkP (t) − λk (s)ds, k ∈ {n, r, I} (2.2.7)
0
12
2.2. MODEL SPECIFICATION
(2.2.8) is recognized as the well known HJM drift condition for the nominal
forward rates under the objective probability measure. Analogously, (2.2.9) is the
drift condition for the real forward rates. It is to be noted that the inflation volatility
and the inflation-real rate correlation appears in this expression. Finally (2.2.10) is
a fisher equation(compare with the heuristics in (1.3.4) ), relating nominal and real
interest rates to expected inflation(µI ) and inflationary risk premium.
13
CHAPTER 2. THE HJM FRAMEWORK OF JARROW AND YILDIRIM
Or
[ ]
1
d ln Pk (t, T ) = rk (t) + bk (t, T ) − a2k (t, T ) dt + ak (t, T )dWkP (t) (2.3.5)
2
Applying Itô’s lemma yields the bond price process
dPk (t, T )
= [rk (t) + bk (t, T )] dt + ak (t, T )dWkP (t)
Pk (t, T
[ ∫ ] (2.3.6)
T 1
= rk (t) − αk (t, u)du + a2k (t, T ) dt + ak (t, T )dWkP (t)
t 2
14
2.3. ZERO COUPON BOND TERM STRUCTURE
So that with (2.3.6), under P , the dynamics of the nominal zero coupon bond is
given as
dPn (t, T )
= [rn (t) − an (t, T )λn (t)] dt + an (t, T )dWnP (t) (2.3.8)
Pn (t, T
and under Q
dPn (t, T )
= rn (t)dt + an (t, T )dWnQ (t) (2.3.9)
Pn (t, T
We note here that with these expressions, the nominal and real forward rates
are normally distributed, whereas the inflation index is log-normally distributed.
15
CHAPTER 2. THE HJM FRAMEWORK OF JARROW AND YILDIRIM
where
1 [ ]
βn (t, T ) = 1 − e−κn (T −t) (2.4.3)
κn
and that the forward rate under Q evolves as
∫ t ∫ t
fn (t, T ) = fn (0, T ) + σn2 βn (s, T )e−κn (T −s) ds + σn e−κn (T −s) dWnQ (s) (2.4.4)
0 0
and
∫ ∫ ∫ t[ ∫ ]
t σ2 t u
−κn (u−s)
rn (u)du = − ln Pn (0, t) + n βn2 (s, t)ds + σn e dWnQ (s) du
0 2 0 0 0
(2.4.6)
We need to do some
∫
work in order to evaluate the double integral. Introducing the
process Y (t) = 0t eas dWnQ (s) we have
d(e−at Y (t)) = e−at dY (t) − ae−at Y (t)dt = dWnQ (t) − ae−at Y (t)dt (2.4.7)
Integrating, we get
∫ t
−at
e Y (t) = WnQ (t) − ae−au Y (u)du (2.4.8)
0
16
2.4. HULL-WHITE SPECIFICATION
Substituting this in the solution to the zero coupon bond price process yields
{∫ ( ) ∫ }
t a2 (s, T ) t
Pn (t, T ) = Pn (0, T ) exp rn (s) − n ds + an (s, T )dWnQ (s)
0 2 0
{∫ ( ) ∫ }
t σ2 t
= Pn (0, T ) exp rn (s) − n βn2 (s, T ) ds − σn βn (s, T )dWnQ (s)
0 2 0
{ ∫ ∫ }
Pn (0, T ) σn2 t [ ] t
= exp βn2 (s, t) − βn2 (s, T ) ds + σn [βn (s, t) − βn (s, T )] dWnQ (s)
Pn (0, t) 2 0 0
(2.4.11)
17
CHAPTER 2. THE HJM FRAMEWORK OF JARROW AND YILDIRIM
where
1 [ ]
βr (t, T ) = 1 − e−κr (T −t) (2.4.17)
κr
For the inflation index process we assume a constant volatility, σI . Similar calcula-
tions as in the previous section then renders the real term structure as
{ ∫ t[ ∫ }
Pr (0, T ) σr2 ] t
Pr (t, T ) = exp βr2 (s, t) − βr2 (s, T ) ds + σr [βr (s, t) − βr (s, T )]dWrQ (s)s
Pr (0, t) 2 0 0
{ ∫ t }
× exp −ρrI σI σr [βr (s, t) − βr (s, T )]ds
0
(2.4.18)
So we need to work out the dynamics of Pr (t, T2 ) under the T1 -forward measure.
Applying the toolkit specified in Proposition (A.1.1) in (2.3.17), we get the following
dynamics for Pr (t, T2 ) under the T1 -forward measure
dPr (t, T2 )
= [rr (t) − ar (t, T2 )σI (t)ρrI + ar (t, T2 )an (t, T1 )ρnr ] dt + ar (t, T1 )dWrT1 (t)
Pr (t, T2 )
(2.5.2)
18
2.5. YEAR-ON-YEAR INFLATION SWAP
with solution
{∫ t }
Pr (t, T2 ) = Pr (0, T2 ) exp (rr (s) − ar (s, T2 )σI (s)ρrI + ar (s, T2 )an (s, T1 )ρnr ) ds
0
{ ∫ ∫ }
t a2r (s, T2 ) t
× exp − ds + ar (s, T2 )dWrT1 (s)
0 2 0
(2.5.3)
Or
(∫ )
Pr (t, T2 ) T1
Pr (T1 , T2 ) | Ft = E [ar (s, T2 ) − ar (s, T1 )] dWrT1 (s) × eC(t,T1 ,T2 )
Pr (t, T1 ) t
(2.5.7)
, where
∫ T1
C(t, T1 , T2 ) = [ar (s, T2 ) − ar (s, T1 )] [an (s, T1 )ρnr − σI (s)ρrI − ar (s, T1 )] ds
t
(2.5.8)
Hence
Pr (t, T2 ) C(t,T1 ,T2 )
E T1 [Pr (T1 , T2 ) | Ft ] = e (2.5.9)
Pr (t, T1 )
So we see that the expectation of the future real zero bond price under the nominal
forward measure is equal to the current forward price of the real bond, multiplied
by a correction factor. The factor depends on the volatilities and correlations of the
19
CHAPTER 2. THE HJM FRAMEWORK OF JARROW AND YILDIRIM
nominal rate, the real rate and the inflation index. Applying (2.5.9) in (2.5.1) gives
us
[ ]
Pr (t, Ti ) C(t,Ti−1 ,Ti )
YYIIS(t, Ti−1 , Ti , ψi , N ) = N ψi Pn (t, Ti−1 ) e − Pn (t, Ti )
Pr (t, Ti−1 )
(2.5.10)
Straightforward calculations shows that the correction term can be explicitly com-
puted as
[ (
1
C(t, Ti−1 , Ti ) = σr βr (Ti−1 , Ti ) βr (t, Ti−1 ) ρr,I σI − βr (t, Ti−1 )
2
) ] (2.5.11)
ρn,r σn ρn,r σn
+ (1 + κr βn (t, Ti−1 )) − βn (t, Ti−1 )
κn + κr κn + κr
This term accounts for the stochasticity of real rates. Indeed it vanishes for σr = 0.
The time t value of the inflation linked leg is obtained by summing up the values
of all payments.
[ ]
I(t)
YYIIS(t, T , Ψ, N ) = N ψι(t) Pr (t, Tι(t) ) − Pn (t, Tι(t) )
I(Tι(t)−1 )
∑
M [ ]
Pr (t, Ti ) C(t,Ti−1 ,Ti )
+N ψi Pn (t, Ti−1 ) e − Pn (t, Ti )
i=ι(t)+1
Pr (t, Ti−1 )
(2.5.12)
The advantage of the Jarrow-Yildirim model is the simple closed formula it results
in. However, the dependence on the real rate parameters, such as the volatility of
real rates is a significant drawback, as it is not easily estimated.
20
2.6. INFLATION LINKED CAP/FLOOR
ratio and the variance of it’s logarithm. Using the fact that if X is a log-normally
distributed random variable with E[X] = m and Std[ln(X)] = v then
( ) ( )
[ ] ln m + 1 v 2 ln m − 1 v 2
+
E [ω (X − K)] = ωmΦ ω K 2 − ωKΦ ω K 2 (2.6.1)
v v
The conditional expectation of I(Ti )/I(Ti−1 ) is obtained directly from (1.2.19) and
(2.5.10) [ ]
I(Ti ) Pn (t, Ti−1 ) Pr (t, Ti ) C(t,Ti−1 ,Ti )
E Ti
Ft = e (2.6.2)
I(Ti−1 ) Pn (t, Ti ) Pr (t, Ti−1 )
Since a change of measure has no impact on the variance, it can be equivalently
calculated under the martingale measure. By standard calculations it can then be
shown that [ ]
I(Ti )
VarTi ln Ft = V 2 (t, Ti−1 , Ti ) (2.6.3)
I(Ti−1 )
, where
σn2 2 [ ]
V 2 (t, Ti−1 , Ti ) = βn (Ti−1 , Ti ) 1 − e−2κn (Ti−1 −t) + σI2 (Ti − Ti−1 )
2κn
σr2 2 [ ]
+ βr (Ti−1 , Ti ) 1 − e−2κr (Ti−1 −t)
2κr
σn σr [ ]
− 2ρnr βn (Ti−1 , Ti )βr (Ti−1 , Ti ) 1 − e−(κn +κr )(Ti−1 −t)
(κn + κr )
2 [ ]
σn 2 −κn (Ti −Ti−1 ) 1 −2κn (Ti −Ti−1 ) 3
+ 2 Ti − Ti−1 + e − e −
κn κn 2κn 2κn
2 [ ]
σ 2 1 −2κr (Ti −Ti−1 ) 3
+ r2 Ti − Ti−1 + e−κr (Ti −Ti−1 ) − e −
κr κr 2κr 2κr
[ ]
σn σr 1 − e−(κn +κr )(Ti −Ti−1 )
− 2ρnr Ti − Ti−1 − βn (Ti−1 , Ti ) − βr (Ti−1 , Ti ) +
κn κr κn + κr
σn σI σr σI
+ 2ρnI [Ti − Ti−1 − βn (Ti−1 , Ti )] − 2ρrI [Ti − Ti−1 − βr (Ti−1 , Ti )]
κn κr
(2.6.4)
The quantities derived in this section then yields the Caplet/Floorlet price as
ILCFLT(t, Ti−1 , Ti , ψi , K, N, ω) =
[ )]
Pn (t, Ti−1 ) Pr (t, Ti ) C(t,Ti−1 ,Ti ) ( i ) (
ωN ψi Pn (t, Ti ) e Φ ωd1 (t) − KΦ ωdi2 (t)
Pn (t, Ti ) Pr (t, Ti−1 )
ln PKP
n (t,Ti−1 ) Pr (t,Ti )
n (t,Ti ) Pr (t,Ti−1 )
+ C(t, Ti−1 , Ti ) + 12 V 2 (t, Ti−1 , Ti )
di1 (t) =
V (t, Ti−1 , Ti )
di2 (t) = d1 − V (t, Ti−1 , Ti )
(2.6.5)
21
CHAPTER 2. THE HJM FRAMEWORK OF JARROW AND YILDIRIM
Just as for the year-on-year inflation swap, the price depends on the volatility of
real rates. In the following sections we will present two market models that have
been proposed as an alternative for valuation of inflation linked instruments. The
models strive to arrive at valuation formulas , where the input parameters are more
easily determined than in the short rate approach of the Jarrow-Yildirim model.
22
Chapter 3
where τi denotes year fraction between Ti−1 and Ti and Fk : k ∈ {n, r} denotes
the simply compounded forward rate. The expectation can be evaluated if we
know the distribution of simply compounded nominal and real forward rates under
the nominal Ti -forward measure. This inspired Mercurio[2] to choose them as the
quantities to model, with the following dynamics under QTni
where σn,i and σr,i are positive constants and ρI,r,i is the instantaneous correlation
between I(·, Ti ) and Fr (·, Ti−1 , Ti ).
23
CHAPTER 3. MARKET MODEL I - A LIBOR MARKET MODEL FOR NOMINAL
AND REAL FORWARD RATES
Since I(t)Pr (t, T ) is the price of the inflation linked bond, which is a traded
asset in the nominal economy, it holds that the forward inflation index
Pr (t, Ti )
I(t, Ti ) = I(t) (3.1.5)
Pn (t, Ti )
dI(t, Ti )
= σI,i dWI,i (t) (3.1.6)
I(t, Ti )
where
1 2 √
µx,i (t) = − σn,i (Ti−1 − t), σx,i (t) = σn,i (Ti−1 − t)
[ 2 ] √
1 2
µy,i (t) = − σr,i − ρI,r,i σI,i σr,i (Ti−1 − t), σy,i (t) = σr,i (Ti−1 − t)
2
We recall the fact that the bivariate density fXi ,Yi (x, y) of (Xi , Yi ) can be decom-
posed in terms of the conditional density fXi |Yi (x, y) as
where
[ ]
x−µx,i (t) y−µy,i (t) 2
1 σ (t) − ρn,r,i σ (t)
fXi |Yi (x, y) = √ √ exp − x,i y,i
Noting that
24
3.1. YEAR-ON-YEAR INFLATION SWAP
so that
YYIS(t, Ti−1 , Ti , ψi , N )
∫ 1 2 2
+∞ 1 + τi Fn (t, Ti−1 , Ti )eρn,r,i σx,i (t)z− 2 σx,i (t)ρn,r,i 1 − 1 z 2
= N ψi Pn (t, Ti ) √ e 2 dz
−∞ 1 + τi Fr (t, Ti−1 , Ti )eµy,i (t)+σy,i (t)z 2π
− N ψi Pn (t, Ti )
(3.1.9)
Some care needs to be taken when valuing the whole inflation leg. We can’t simply
sum up the values in (3.1.9). To see this, note that by (3.1.5) and the assumption
of simply compounded rates we have
I(t, Ti ) 1 + τi Fn (t, Ti−1 , Ti )
= (3.1.10)
I(t, Ti−1 ) 1 + τi Fr (t, Ti−1 , Ti )
Thus, if we assume that σI,i , σn,i and σr,i are positive constants then σI,i−1 cannot
be constant as well. It’s admissable values are obtained by equating the quadratic
variations on both side of (3.1.10). For instance, if nominal and real forward rates
as well as the forward inflation index were driven by the same brownian motion,
then equating the quadriatic variations in (3.1.10) yields
τi Fr (t, Ti−1 , Ti ) τi Fn (t, Ti−1 , Ti )
σI,i−1 = σI,i + σr,i − σn,i
1 + τi Fr (t, Ti−1 , Ti ) 1 + τi Fn (t, Ti−1 , Ti )
Mercurio applied a "freezing procedure" where the forward rates in the diffusion
coefficient on the right hand side of (3.1.10) are frozen at their time 0 value, so that
we can still get forward inflation index volatilities that are approximately constant.
In the case where all processes are driven by the same brownian motion, equating
the quadratic variations would yield
τi Fr (0, Ti−1 , Ti ) τi Fn (0, Ti−1 , Ti )
σI,i−1 ≈ σI,i + σr,i − σn,i
1 + τi Fr (0, Ti−1 , Ti ) 1 + τi Fn (0, Ti−1 , Ti )
25
CHAPTER 3. MARKET MODEL I - A LIBOR MARKET MODEL FOR NOMINAL
AND REAL FORWARD RATES
Thus, applying this approximation for each i, we can still assume that the volatil-
ities σI,i are all constant. The time t value of the inflation leg is then given by
[ ]
I(t)
YYIIS(t, T , Ψ, N ) = N ψι(t) Pr (t, Tι(t) ) − Pn (t, Tι(t) )
I(Tι(t)−1 )
∑
M ∫ 1 2 2
+∞ 1 + τi Fn (t, Ti−1 , Ti )eρn,r,i σx,i (t)z− 2 σx,i (t)ρn,r,i 1 − 1 z 2
+N ψi Pn (t, Ti ) × √ e 2 dz − 1
ι(t)+1
−∞ 1 + τi Fr (t, Ti−1 , Ti )eµy,i (t)+σy,i (t)z 2π
(3.1.11)
where we set T := {T1 , · · · , TM }, Ψ := {ψ1 , · · · , ψM }, ι(t) = min {i : Ti > t} and
where the first cash flow has been priced according to the zero coupon inflation leg
formula derived in (1.2.13).
At t = 0 we get
YYIIS(0, T , Ψ, N ) = N ψ1 [Pr (0, T1 ) − Pn (0, T1 )]
∑
M ∫ 1 2 2
+∞ 1 + τi Fn (0, Ti−1 , Ti )eρn,r,i σx,i (0)z− 2 σx,i (0)ρn,r,i 1 − 1 z 2
+N ψi Pn (0, Ti ) × √ e 2 dz − 1
2 −∞ 1 + τi Fr (0, Ti−1 , Ti )eµy,i (0)+σy,i (0)z 2π
∑
M ∫ 1 2 2
+∞ 1 + τi Fn (0, Ti−1 , Ti )eρn,r,i σx,i (0)z− 2 σx,i (0)ρn,r,i 1 − 1 z 2
=N ψi Pn (0, Ti ) × √ e 2 dz − 1
1 −∞ 1 + τi Fr (0, Ti−1 , Ti )eµy,i (0)+σy,i (0)z 2π
(3.1.12)
The price depends on the following parameters: the instantaneous volatilities of
nominal and real forward rates and their correlations for each payment time Ti :
{1 < i <= M }; and the volatilities of forward inflation indices and their correlations
with real forward rates for each payment time Ti : {1 < i <= M }.
This formula looks looks more complicated than (2.5.12) both in terms of input
parameters and the calculations involved. Even with approximations made, we fail
to arrive at a closed-form valuation formula for a benchmark inflation derivative.
And as in the Jarrow and Yilidrim model, the price depends on a number of real
rate parameters that may be difficult to estimate.
26
3.2. INFLATION LINKED CAP/FLOOR
It is clear the the evaluation of the outer expectation depends on if one models
the forward inflation index(as presented in Market Model II), or the forward rates,
which is the approach of Market Model I.
Assuming log-normal dynamics of the forward inflation index as defined in
(3.1.6) and using that I(Ti ) = I(Ti , Ti ), yields the inner expectation as
[ ] [ ]
E Ti [ω (I(Ti ) − KI(Ti−1 ))]+ FT −1 = E Ti [ω (I(Ti , Ti ) − KI(Ti−1 , Ti−1 ))]+ FT −1
I(Ti−1 ,Ti )
ln KI(T 2 (T − T
+ 12 σI,i i i−1 )
= ωI(Ti−1 , Ti )Φ ω i−1 ,Ti−1 )
√
σI,i Ti − Ti−1
I(Ti−1 ,Ti )
ln KI(T − 12 σI,i
2 (T − T
i i−1 )
− ωKI(Ti−1 )Φ ω i−1 ,Ti−1 )
√
σI,i Ti − Ti−1
Hence
ILCFLT(t, Ti−1 , Ti , ψi , K, N, ω)
I(Ti−1 ,Ti )
2 (T − T
+ 21 σI,i
Ti I(Ti−1 , Ti )
ln KI(T i i−1 )
= ωN ψi Pn (t, Ti )E
Φ ω i−1 ,Ti−1 )
√
I(Ti−1 , Ti−1 ) σI,i Ti − Ti−1
I(Ti−1 ,Ti )
− 12 σI,i
2 (T − T
ln KI(T i i−1 )
−KΦ ω i−1 ,Ti−1 )
√ Ft
σI,i Ti − Ti−1
(3.2.2)
And by the definition of I(Ti−1 , Ti−1 ) in (3.1.5), and the choice to model simply
compounded real and nominal forward rates, we note that
ILCFLT(t, Ti−1 , Ti , ψi , K, N, ω)
[
1 + τi Fn (Ti−1 , Ti−1 , Ti ) ( i ) ( ) ]
= ωN ψi Pn (t, Ti )E Ti Φ ωd1 (t) − KΦ ωdi2 (t) Ft
1 + τi Fr (Ti−1 , Ti−1 , Ti )
1+τi Fn (Ti−1 ,Ti−1 ,Ti ) 2 (T − T
ln K[1+τ i Fr (Ti−1 ,Ti−1 ,Ti )]
+ 12 σI,i i i−1 )
di1 (t) = √
σI,i Ti − Ti−1
√
di2 (t) = di1 (t) − σI,i (Ti − Ti−1 )
(3.2.4)
We recall the assumption that nominal and real forward rates evolve according
to (3.1.2) and (3.1.4) and utilize Mercurios freezing procedure described earlier,
yielding constant forward inflation index volatilities volatilities. Again we use that,
27
CHAPTER 3. MARKET MODEL I - A LIBOR MARKET MODEL FOR NOMINAL
AND REAL FORWARD RATES
under these assumptions, the pair (3.1.7) is distributed as a bivariate normal random
variable with mean vector and covarience matrix given by (3.1.8). And so we can
evaluate the expectation in (3.2.4).
The dimensionality of the problem can be reduced by assuming deterministic
real rates. As a consequence, the future rate Fr (Ti−1 , Ti−1 , Ti ) is simply equal to
the current forward rate Fr (t, Ti−1 , Ti ), so that we can write the Caplet/Floorlet
price as
ILCFLT(t, Ti−1 , Ti , ψi , K, N, ω)
[
1 + τi Fn (Ti−1 , Ti−1 , Ti ) ( i ) ( ) ]
= ωN ψi Pn (t, Ti )E Ti Φ ωd1 (t) − KΦ ωdi2 (t) Ft
1 + τi Fr (t, Ti−1 , Ti )
(3.2.5)
And since the nominal forward rate Fn (·, Ti−1 , Ti ) evolves as specified in (3.1.2), we
have
ILCFLT(t, Ti−1 , Ti , ψi , K, N, ω)
( 2
)2
x+ 1
2 σn,i (Ti−1 −t)
∫ ∞ − 12 √ (3.2.6)
1 σn,i Ti−1 −t
= ωN ψi Pn (t, Ti ) J(x) √ e dx
−∞ σn,i 2π(Ti−1 − t)
where
1+τi Fn (t,Ti−1 ,Ti )e x
1 + τi Fn (t, Ti−1 , Ti )ex ln K[1+τi Fr (t,Ti−1 ,Ti )] + 2 σI,i (Ti − Ti−1 )
1 2
J(x) := Φ ω √
1 + τi Fr (t, Ti−1 , Ti ) σI,i Ti − Ti−1
1+τi Fn (t,Ti−1 ,Ti )e x
ln K[1+τ − 12 σI,i
2 (T − T
i i−1 )
− KΦ ω i Fr (t,Ti−1 ,Ti )]
√
σI,i Ti − Ti−1
The time 0 price of the Inflation Indexed Cap/Floor is then obtained by summing
up the respective caplets/floorlets
∑
M
ILCF(0, T , Ψ, K, N, ω) = ILCFT(0, Ti−1 , Ti , ψi , K, N, ω)
i=1
[ ( ) ( )]
= ωN ψ1 Pr (0, T1 )Φ ωdi1 (0) − KPn (0, T1 )Φ ωdi2 (0) (3.2.7)
( 2
)2
x+ 1
∑
M ∫ ∞ −2 1 2 σn,i Ti−1
√
1 σn,i Ti−1
+ ωN ψi Pn (0, Ti ) J(0, x) √ e dx
i=2 −∞ σn,i 2πTi−1
28
Chapter 4
The dynamics of I(t, Ti ) under QTni is given by (3.1.6). Applying the toolkit in
proposition (A.1.1) yields the dynamics of I(t, Ti−1 ) under QTni as
[ ]
dI(t, Ti−1 ) τi σn,i Fn (t, Ti−1 , Ti )
= σI,i−1 − ρI,n,i dt + dWI,i−1 (t) (4.1.2)
I(t, Ti−1 ) 1 + Fn (t, Ti−1 , Ti )
29
CHAPTER 4. MARKET MODEL II - MODELING THE FORWARD INFLATION
INDICES
and ρI,n,i is the instantaneous correlation between I(·, Ti−1 ) and Fn (·, Ti−1 , Ti )
We see that the dynamics of I(·, Ti−1 ) under QTni depends on the nominal forward
rate Fn (t, Ti−1 , Ti ). To simplify the calculation in (4.1.1), Mercurio proposed to
freeze the drift in (4.1.2) at it’s current time t value. By this freezing procedure
I(Ti−1 , Ti−1 )|Ft is lognormally distributed also under QTni . And since integration
I(t,Ti )
by parts on d I(t,T i−1 )
yields
[ ]
I(t, Ti ) τi σn,i Fn (t, Ti−1 , Ti )
d = σI,i−1 ρI,n,i + σI,i−1 − σI,i ρI,i dt
I(t, Ti−1 ) 1 + Fn (t, Ti−1 , Ti ) (4.1.3)
+ σI,i−1 dWI,i−1 (t) + σI,i dWI,i (t)
, freezing the drift at it’s time-t value and noting the resulting log-normality of
I(t,Ti )
I(t,Ti−1 ) , enables us to calculate the expectation in (4.1.1) as
[ ]
I(Ti−1 , Ti ) I(t, Ti ) Di (t)
EnTi Ft = e
I(Ti−1 , Ti−1 ) I(t, Ti−1 )
where
[ ]
τi σn,i Fn (t, Ti−1 , Ti )
Di (t) = σI,i−1 ρI,n,i + σI,i−1 − σI,i ρI,i (Ti−1 − t)
1 + τi Fn (t, Ti−1 , Ti )
Thus
[ ]
I(t, Ti ) Di (t)
YYIIS(t, Ti−1 , Ti , ψi , N ) = N ψi Pn (t, Ti ) e −1
I(t, Ti−1 )
[ ] (4.1.4)
Pn (t, Ti−1 )Pr (t, Ti ) Di (t)
= N ψi Pn (t, Ti ) e −1
Pr (t, Ti−1 )Pn (t, Ti )
30
4.2. INFLATION LINKED CAP/FLOOR
∑
M [ ]
I(0, Ti ) Di (0)
YYIIS(0, T , Ψ, N ) = N ψi Pn (0, Ti ) e −1
i=1
I(0, Ti−1 )
= N ψ1 [Pr (0, T1 ) − Pn (0, T1 )]
∑
M [ ]
Pr (0, Ti ) Di (0) (4.1.6)
+N ψi Pn (0, Ti−1 ) e − Pn (0, Ti )
i=2
Pr (0, Ti−1 )
∑
M [ ]
1 + τi Fn (0, Ti−1 , Ti ) Di (0)
=N ψi Pn (0, Ti ) e −1
i=1
1 + τi Fr (0, Ti−1 , Ti )
This expression above has the advantage of using a market model approach com-
bined with yielding a fully analytical formula. In addition, contrary to Market
Model I, the correction term does not depend on the volatility of real rates.
A drawback of the formula is that the approximation used when freezing the
drift may be rough for longer maturities. In fact, the formula above is exact only
when the correlations between I(·, Ti−1 ) and Fn (·, Ti−1 , Ti ) are assumed to be zero
so that the nominal forward rate is zeroed out from Di .
ILCFLT(t, Ti−1 , Ti , ψi , K, N, ω)
I(t,Ti )
I(t, T ) ln KI(t,T + Di (t) + 12 Vi2 (t)
= ωN ψi Pn (t, Ti ) Φ ω i−1 )
i D (t)
e i
I(t, Ti−1 ) Vi (t)
I(t,Ti )
ln KI(t,T + Di (t) − 12 Vi2 (t)
−KΦ ω i−1 )
Vi (t) (4.2.3)
[ ( ) ( )]
1 + τi Fn (t, Ti−1 , Ti ) Di (t)
= ωN ψi Pn (t, Ti ) e Φ ωdi1 (t) − KΦ ωdi2 (t)
1 + τi Fr (t, Ti−1 , Ti )
1+τi Fn (t,Ti−1 ,Ti )
ln K[1+τ i Fr (t,Ti−1 ,Ti )]
+ Di (t) + 12 Vi2 (t)
di1 (t) =
Vi (t)
di2 (t) = di1 (t) − Vi (t)
31
CHAPTER 4. MARKET MODEL II - MODELING THE FORWARD INFLATION
INDICES
where
√
Vi (t) := 2 (T − T
Vi2 (t) + σI,i i i−1 )
ILCFL(t, T , Ψ, K, N, ω)
∑
M
= ILCFLT(t, Ti−1 , Ti , ψi , K, N, ω)
i=1
[ ]
∑
M
1 + τi Fn (t, Ti−1 , Ti ) Di (t) ( i ) ( )
= ωN ψi Pn (t, Ti ) e Φ ωd1 (t) − KΦ ωdi2 (t)
i=1
1 + τi Fr (t, Ti−1 , Ti )
(4.2.4)
As in the YYIS price (4.1.6), the Cap/Floor price depends on the instantaneous
volatilities of forward inflation indices and their correlations, the instantaneous
volatilities of nominal forward rates and the instantaneous correlations between
forward inflation indices and nominal forward rates. And again, there is no depen-
dency on the volatilities of real rates and the formula is analytic.
32
Chapter 5
Calibration
2.5
2
Nominal Zero−Coupon Curve
Real Zero−Coupon Curve
1.5
1
Spot Rate(%)
0.5
−0.5
−1
−1.5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Maturity(years)
We need to extract the nominal zero-coupon rates, Pn (0, Ti ) from the swap
quotes, S(Ti ), that we showed in Figure 1.1. The fixed leg on the EUR denominated
33
CHAPTER 5. CALIBRATION
2.5
2
Nominal Forward Curve
6M Forward Rate(%)
0.5
−0.5
−1
−1.5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Maturity(years)
, so that for all maturities {Ti , i > 0}, we can iteratively back out the zero-coupon
rates as
∑
1 − S(Ti ) i−1j=0 P (0, Tj )
P (0, Ti ) =
1 + S(Ti ) (5.1.2)
P (0, T0 ) = P (0, 0) := 1
To obtain the real zero-coupon rates, we take the break-even inflation rates, b(Ti ),
that we showed in Figure 1.1 and apply (1.2.16), i.e.
The resulting nominal and real spot rates are shown in Figure 5.1. The correspond-
ing forward rates are displayed in Figure 5.2.
34
5.2. SIMPLIFIED JARROW-YILDIRIM MODEL
dI(t)
= [rn (t) − rr (t)] dt + σI dWIQ (t) (5.2.1)
I(t)
where the nominal and real short rates, rn (.) and rr (.), are (unrealistically) assumed
to be deterministic. And the inflation index volatility, σI , is constant. In this model,
the Fisher equation is still preserved since.
[ ] ∫T
I(T ) rn (u)−ru (u)du
E Q
F = e (5.2.2)
I(t)
t t
35
CHAPTER 5. CALIBRATION
3.5
3
Implied Volatility(%)
2.5
1.5
1
10
9
8 0
7 0.5
6
5
4 1.5
3
2
1 2.5
Strike(inflation rate)
Maturity(years)
36
5.2. SIMPLIFIED JARROW-YILDIRIM MODEL
5
Implied Volatility(%)
1
10 9
8 7 0
6 5 0.5
4 3 1.5
2 1
2.5
Strike(inflation rate)
Maturity(years)
37
CHAPTER 5. CALIBRATION
90
ATM Cap Volatilitites
80
70
ATM Volatility(%)
60
50
40
30
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Maturity(years)
By the choice of nominal volatility function, pricing a nominal Cap under the
J-Y model renders the well known Hull-White Cap/Floor valuation formula. We
may then estimate the nominal volatility parameters with the following scheme. For
each maturity Ti , we observe the ATM Cap (Black) volatility quote, σiATM , shown
in figure 5.5, and the accompanying ATM strike level KiATM . We can then fit the
nominal volatility parameters κn , σn by performing a least squares optimization
over
From the resulting theoretical Hull-White prices we then back out the implied Black
volatility. The result is shown in Figure 5.6. The fit is not too bad in the long end of
the curve. In the short end, we suffer from the limitations of our choice of nominal
volatility function. The exponentially declining form of volatility can not recover
38
5.3. JARROW YILDIRIM MODEL
the "hump" observed in the short end of the curve. However, note that although it
was the choice of Jarrow and Yildirim , the J-Y framework is not limited to Hull-
White term structures. We are free to choose other volatility functions for a better
fit to Cap/Floor volatilities.
The implementation of nominal volatility structure calibration is a subject in
itself and is beyond the scope of this thesis. We simply point out that we are free to
choose a nominal volatility structure, other than that of Hull-White. For instance,
had we set σn (t, T ) = σ then we would have rendered a Ho-Lee term structure.
250
Market ATM Volatilities
Model ATM Volatilities
200
Price(basis points)
150
100
50
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Maturity(years)
39
CHAPTER 5. CALIBRATION
relative errors as shown in Figure 5.7. Excluding the longer dated contracts from
the calibration (Figure 5.8), still results in a poor fit.
We conclude that we must restrict ourself to the (closest to) ATM contract and
restrict the expiry dimension to get a reasonable fit, as shown in figure in 5.9. The fit
in the expiry dimension can be improved by choosing more sophisticated volatility
functions for the real rate and the inflation index. The presence of a "strike skew"
however, makes calibration unfeasible for non ATM contracts.
60
40
Relative Error(%)
20
−20
1 1.5
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 2.5
Strike(inflation rate)
Maturity(years)
Figure 5.7: Relative Error, EUR Year-on-Year Inflation Floor Model Prices, 13
jul-2012
40
5.3. JARROW YILDIRIM MODEL
40
Relative Error(%)
20
−20
1 1.5
2
3
4
5
6 2.5 Strike(inflation rate)
Maturity(years)
Figure 5.8: Relative Error, EUR Year-on-Year Inflation Floor Model Prices, 13
jul-2012
41
CHAPTER 5. CALIBRATION
4
Relative Error, Strike = 1.5%
2
Relative Error(%)
−1
−2
−3
1 2 3
Maturity(years)
Figure 5.9: Relative Error, EUR ATM Year-on-Year Inflation Floor J-Y Model
Prices, 13 jul-2012
42
5.4. MARKET MODEL II
The fitting procedure is run iteratively. That is, σI,1 is directly obtained from the
1-Year Floor, since it depends on no other unknown parameters. We then proceed
to use least squares estimation to fit the rest of the parameters to the corresponding
Floor prices. The resulting price error surface is plotted in Figure 5.10.
Since each expiry has it’s own set of parameters, there is no need to restrict
the number of contracts in the expiry dimension. The skew in the strike dimension
however, results in a poor fit if we want to include non ATM contracts. From
the figure, it’s clear that if we assume constant volatility in the expiry dimension,
then OTM contracts are underpriced and ITM contracts are overpriced. As in
the J-Y model, we must restrict ourselves to (close to) ATM contracts to recover
market prices. Or alternatively, take the "practitioners approach" and imply a set
of parameters for each Expiry/Strike pair.
43
CHAPTER 5. CALIBRATION
20
10
Relative Error(%)
−10
−20
−30
10
9
8 2.5
7
6
5 1.5
4
3
2 0.5
1
Maturity(years) 0
Strike(inflation rate)
Figure 5.10: Relative Error, EUR ATM Year-on-Year Inflation Floor Market Model
II Prices, 13 jul-2012
44
Chapter 6
6.1 Conclusions
In this thesis, we have presented the market for inflation derivatives and compared
three approaches for pricing standard contracts.
The first approach is a HJM framework where we have set a Hull-White term
structure both for the nominal and the real economy. The result is analytically
tractable prices for Year-On-Year Inflation Swaps and Caps/Floors. A practical
downside is that it requires real rate parameters that are not trivial to estimate.
Furthermore, the model cannot be reconciled with the the full volatility surface of
inflation Caps/Floors. That is, since the model does not account for the "inflation
smile" it can only be calibrated to ATM contracts.
The second approach is a market model were the modeled quantities are the
simply compounded nominal and real forward rates. The advantage of this approach
is that is that it models observable quantities, i.e. the forward rates. The downside
is that it leads to non-closed form prices of the standard contracts. And it still
requires the estimation of real rate parameters. Finally, the forward rate is assumed
to follow a Log-Normal distribution, which may not be a realistic assumption in the
presence of negative real forward rates.
The third approach models the respective forward inflation indices. By usage
of "drift freezing" approximations , this approach leads to closed form prices of the
standard contracts. And there is no dependence on real rate parameters. Fur-
thermore, the nominal volatility parameter is automatically calibrated to quoted
nominal cap volatilities. And since each respective forward inflation index is mod-
eled, adding contracts in the expiry dimension has no negative impact on calibration
performance. Of the models evaluated, this approach seems the most promising. In
the strike dimension however, the smile effect makes it difficult to reconcile OTM
contracts.
45
CHAPTER 6. CONCLUSIONS AND EXTENSIONS
6.2 Extensions
In light of the conclusions drawn so far, a natural next step is to attempt to take
the inflation smile into account. There has been research in this area. Mercurio
and Damiano[6] extend Market Model II by by a stochastic volatility framework
with ’Heston’ dynamics. They produce smile consistent closed-form formulas for
inflation-indexed caplets and floorlets.
Taking a different approach, Kenyon[8] proposed that by the low inflation volatil-
ities, it’s natural to model the Year-on-Year inflation rate itself, with a normal dis-
tribution. He proceeds with proposing normal-mixture models and normal-gamma
models to take the smile effect into account. The result is closed form price formulas
that well recover the inflation smile.
As a final note, Mercurio and Damiano[7] developed a framework that leads
to SABR-like dynamics for forward inflation rates, and closed-form prices for the
standard contracts.
46
Appendix A
Appendix
where both σ S (t) and σ U (t) are 1×n vectors , W U is n-dimensional standard Brow-
nian motion and CC ′ = ρ. Then, the drift of the process X under the numeraire U
is
( )′
σ S (t) σ U (t)
µU
X (t) = µSX (t) − σX (t)ρ −
S(t) U (t)
47
References
[1] Jarrow, R., and Yildirim, Y Pricing Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and
Related Derivatives using an HJM Model 2003: Journal of Financial and Quan-
titative Analysis 38(2), 409-430.
[3] Damiano M. and Mercurio F., Interest Rate Models - Theory and Practice 2007:
Springer Finance
[4] Belgrade, N., Benhamou, E., and Koehler E. A Market Model for Inflation 2004:
ssrn.com/abstract=576081.
[5] David Heath, Robert Jarrow, Andrew Morton, Bond Pricing and the Term
Structure of Interest rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation
1992: Econometrica, Volume 60, Issue 1, pages 77-105
[6] Damiano M. and Mercurio F., Pricing inflation-indexed options with stochastic
volatility 2005, http://www.fabiomercurio.it
[7] Damiano M. and Mercurio F., Inflation modelling with SABR dynamics 2009,
Risk June, 106-111
49
TRITA-MAT-E 2012:13
ISRN-KTH/MAT/E--12/13-SE
www.kth.se