Thematic Research: Brazilian Healthcare Sector Data
Thematic Research: Brazilian Healthcare Sector Data
Thematic Research: Brazilian Healthcare Sector Data
Samuel Alves
samuel.alves@btgpactual.com
Phone: +55 (11) 3383-2450
Yan Cesquim
yan.cesquim@btgpactual.com
Phone: +55 (11) 3383-2734
Pedro Lima
pedro-o.lima@btgpactual.com
Phone: +55 (11) 3383-1133
March, 2023
Brazilian Healthcare Sector Data
Summary
HC and
Hospitals Dental Plans Labs Oncology M&As General
1 2 3 4 5 6
Hospitals
Industry Assessment
Menu
Hospitals
Private vs. public hospital beds in Brazil
321.4 319.3 311.9 307.8 303.2 300.3 295.0 313.0 310.4 309.5 Mato Grosso do Sul 4,067 1,951
Mato Grosso 5,629 1,918
130.6 133.2 129.9 130.1 133.6 132.5 135.6 134.8 137.2 139.2 Rio Grande do Norte 6,098 1,715
Piauí 6,302 1,371
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Alagoas 5,392 1,173
Private Beds SUS Beds
Rondônia 3,606 1,025
Sergipe 2,286 887
Amazonas 5,282 836
Source: CNES Tabnet, Dez/22
Tocantins 2,382 722
Acre 1,450 145
Amapá 1,280 132
Roraima 1,249 98
Slide 4
Total 309,479 139,206
Hospitals
Beneficiaries per private bed
State Beneficiaries per state Private Beds per state Beneficiaries/ private bed
Amazonas 606,208 836 725 States with higher density could indicate interesting
São Paulo 18,192,142 39,316 463 opportunities for opening new beds
Amapá 60,204 132 456
Espírito Santo 1,241,243 2,779 447
Minas Gerais 5,649,703 13,842 408
Paraná 3,056,906 8,106 377
Sergipe 333,141 887 376
Santa Catarina 1,642,776 4,398 374
Rio de Janeiro 5,495,866 14,762 372
Rio Grande do Norte 606,008 1,715 353
Mato Grosso 654,573 1,918 341
Alagoas 387,049 1,173 330
Mato Grosso do Sul 642,661 1,951 329
Roraima 31,097 98 317
Ceará 1,345,800 4,505 299
Acre 43,070 145 297
Bahia 1,683,159 5,899 285
Distrito Federal 932,295 3,272 285
Piauí 382,993 1,371 279
Rio Grande do Sul 2,648,011 10,005 265
Maranhão 497,094 2,013 247
Pernambuco 1,394,549 5,767 242
Pará 848,078 3,597 236
Paraíba 450,874 2,077 217
Goiás 1,338,917 6,895 194
Tocantins 120,034 722 166
Rondônia 158,340 1,025 154
Source: CNES, ANS
Total 50,442,791 139,206 362
Slide 5
Hospitals
# of beds for largest players
11,046
8,029
HAPVIDA
DASA
MaterDei
Kora
Athena
Grupo Santa
Hospital Care
Prevent Senior
Sírio Libanês
Oswaldo Cruz
Albert Einstein*
Moinhos de Vento
Pequeno Príncipe
AC Camargo
consolidation!
Slide 6
Hospitals
Market share dynamics in the private hospital industry
1%1%
1% In São Paulo state, there are several high-
1%
9%
2% quality non-profit hospital providers like
2% Albert Einstein (HIAE) and Sírio Libanês
2% (HSL).
3%
Looking at mkt. share, the largest players
8%
3%
in the industry represent only ~30% of
total private beds, indicating that there’s
room for more consolidation.
Slide 7
Hospitals
Market share dynamics in the private hospital industry
Rio de Janeiro (metropolitan region) – Mkt. share in beds Belo Horizonte (metropolitan region) – Mkt. share in beds
10%
23%
8%
2%
5%
60% 4%
4%
3%
80%
Source: Companies, CNES, BTG Pactual Source: Companies, CNES, BTG Pactual
Slide 8
Hospitals
Market share dynamics in the private hospital industry
The mkt. share evolution of listed Listed players – Mkt. share (# of private beds)
players is proof of the ongoing
Listed Players' official m kt shares 2018 2019 2020 2021 2Q22 3Q22
consolidation
5.0% 5.6% 6.5% 6.5% 8.0% 8.0%
Slide 9
Hospitals
Evolution of total # of hospitals
1,868 1,946
2,016 2,023 1,990 1,935 1,976 1,864 1,860
1,980
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Slide 10
Hospitals
Breaking down hospitals by player
Source: Rede D’Or, CNES (RDOR doesn’t report beds per hospital), BTG Pactual Slide 11
Hospitals
Breaking down hospitals by player
Hospital Sem ed BA 15 Hospital Sao Francisco Quirinopolis GO 20 Hospital Antonio Prudente Natal RN 130
# Total # Total
Units State Units State
Beds Beds
Source: HAPV, CNES (HAPV doesn’t report beds per hospital), BTG Pactual Slide 13
Hospitals
Breaking down hospitals by player
# of
# Total
Units State # ICU Beds Regular
Beds # of
Beds # Total
Units State # ICU Beds Regular
Maternidade Brasília DF 30 105 135 Beds
Beds
Hospital Brasilia DF 65 120 185 Materdei Contorno MG 40 317 357
Hospital Águas Claras DF 154 110 264 Materdei Santo Agostinho MG 55 263 318
Com plexo Hospitalar de Niterói RJ 98 193 291 Materdei Betim -Contagem MG 56 367 423
MaterDei Salvador BA 80 289 369
Hospital São Lucas RJ 90 108 198
Hospital Porto Dias PA 100 352 452
Hospital Nove de Julho SP 102 370 472
Hospital Santa Clara MG 63 87 150
Hospital Santa Paula SP 48 140 188
Hospital Santa Genoveva MG 32 128 160
Leforte Christovão da Gam a SP 44 149 193 Hospital Prem ium GO 112 44 156
Hospital Leforte Morum bi SP 41 55 96 EMEC BA 30 120 150
Source: Dasa, CNES (DASA doesn’t report beds per hospital), BTG Pactual
Slide 14
Hospitals
Breaking down hospitals by player
# of # of
# Total # Total
Units State # ICU Beds Regular Units State # ICU Beds Regular
Beds Beds
Beds Beds
Hospital Meridional ES 52 133 185 Hospital Alvorada Brasilia DF 25 64 89
Hospital Santa Úrsula ES 36 42 78 Hospital Madre Theodora SP 30 60 90
Meridional São Mateus ES 37 92 129 Hospital Vitoria Santos SP 8 31 39
Hospital Praia da Costa ES 32 52 84 Hospital de Clínicas Caieiras SP 0 58 58
Hospital São Luiz ES 0 42 42 Hospital Sam aritano - Paulista SP 27 0 27
Metropolitano/Meridional Serra ES 60 87 147 Hospital Paulistano SP 20 152 172
Hospital São Franciso ES 9 34 43 Hospital Sam aritano - Higienópolis SP 82 233 315
Hospital Palm as Medical TO 34 47 81 Hospital Sam aritano - Botafogo RJ 23 43 66
Hospital Santa Thereza TO 0 57 57 Hospital Vitória RJ 50 189 239
Hospital São Mateus MT 37 93 130 Hospital Pró-Cardíaco RJ 33 80 113
Hospital Anchieta DF 50 117 167 Hospital Monte Klinikum CE 4 92 96
Hospital Gastroclinica CE 29 69 98 Hospital Metropolitano SP 78 10 88
Instituto Neurologico de Goiania GO 10 95 105 Hospital Santa Joana PE 67 152 219
Hospital Sao Mateus CE 22 128 150 Hospital e Maternidade Prom ater RN 35 107 142
Grupo OTO CE 44 150 194 Hospital Alvorada Moem a SP 40 107 147
Hospital São Francisco DF 44 135 179 Hospital Vitoria Analia Franco SP 34 199 233
Hospital Encore GO 22 28 50 Hospital Vitoria Barra da Tijuca RJ 50 189 239
17 Hospitals - 518 1,401 1,919 17 Hospitals - 606 1,766 2,372
Source: Kora, CNES, BTG Pactual Source: Americas, CNES, BTG Pactual 15
Hospitals
Breaking down hospitals by player
# of
# Total # of
Units State # ICU Beds Regular # Total
Beds Units State # ICU Beds Regular
Beds Beds
Beds
Vitoria Apart ES 79 162 241 Hospital Vera Cruz SP 41 113 154
Hospital Bom Sam aritano PR 47 142 189 Hospital Pilar PR 0 157 157
São Bernardo Apart Hotel ES n.m 140 140 Hospital São Lucas SP 54 100 154
Hospital do Coração RN 42 114 156 Hospital Baia Sul SC 15 77 92
Hospital Marechal Candido Rondon PR 5 54 59 Casa de Saúde SP 43 131 174
Perinatal Vitória ES 46 0 46 HERP SP 3 18 21
Centro Médico Maranhense MA 14 49 63 Austa Hospital SP 40 124 164
Slide 16
Hospitals
Breaking down hospitals by player
# of
# Total
Units State # ICU Beds Regular
Beds # of
Beds # Total
Units State # ICU Beds Regular
Hospital Santa Catarina SP 79 237 316 Beds
Beds
Casa de Saude São José RJ 102 117 219 Santa Lucia Norte DF 62 119 181
Hospital São José RJ 20 81 101 Santa Lucia Sul DF 145 192 337
Hospital Nossa Sra. Conceição RJ 26 80 106 Hospital Maria Auxiliadora (Gam a) DF 55 117 172
9 Hospitals - 372 1,292 1,664 Source: Grupo Santa, CNES, BTG Pactual
Slide 17
Hospitals
Hospital metrics of listed players
Occupancy rates (% utilization of operational beds) Operational rates (% of beds that are operational)
100%
90%
87%
82% 90% 86%
83%
80% 81% 80%
78%
77% 74% 70%
70% 69% 60%
71% 57%
50%
60%
40%
50% 30%
2018 2019 2020 2021 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 2018 2019 2020 2021 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22
Slide 18
Hospitals
Hospital metrics of listed players
Evolution of total existing capacity (000 beds) Evolution of operating capacity (000 beds)
2018 2019 2020 2021 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 2018 2019 2020 2021 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22
Slide 19
Hospitals
Avg. daily ticket across the hospital industry
10,000
9,000 8,651 8,728
8,000
7,000
6,000 5,690
5,081
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E
Slide 20
Hospitals
Hospital metrics of listed players
10,000
8,969
9,000 8,395
8,815
8,000
7,000
5,639
6,000
5,705
5,000 5,022
4,000 4,866
3,000
2,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22
Slide 21
Hospitals
EBTIDA margins of listed players x ANAHP (association of private hospitals)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E
ANAHP EBITDA Margin Rede D´Or EBITDA Margin ANAHP EBITDA Margin Mater Dei EBITDA Margin
*Consolidated Margin
25%
23% 23% 21%
19% 18% 16%
14% 13% 14% 14% 14% 13% 14% 12%
12% 12% 11% 12%
8% 8%
Slide 23
Hospitals
IPCA (CPI index) – Hospitalization price adjustments above the general index again
13%
10%
8%
5%
3%
0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
IPCA Hospitalizaton
Source: IBGE
Slide 24
Hospitals
Hospital cost breakdown (ANAHP average - % of total expenses)
81.3%
79.9% 80.0% 79.9% 79.3% 80.0% 27.6% 27.9%
25.0% 24.9% 25.8%
22.7%
69
64
52
45
38
35
31
Covering 13
States
Slide 26
Evolution of Capacity (beds), operating capacity (beds) and occupancy rates (%) EBITDA mg. vs. ANAHP EBITDA average mg.
72.3%
67.5% 35.2% 35.2%
60.9% 61.8% 29.5%
59.6%
21.6%
2,497 13.7% 12.4% 11.7%
8.0%
4 Covering 4
3 3 States
2
Slide 27
Evolution of Capacity (beds), operating capacity (beds) and occupancy rates (%) EBITDA mg. vs. ANAHP EBITDA average mg.
81.9%
77.8% 22.7% 22.8%
19.0%
68.0%
64.1% 3,408 13.7% 12.4% 13.6%
11.7%
2,863 8.0%
2,751
2,244
Dasa 1,667
1,816
1,514 2018 2019 2020 2021
1,401 1,409
Snapshot EBITDA Margin ANAHP DASA EBITDA Margin
7 7 7 Covering 6
States
Slide 28
Evolution of Capacity (beds), operating capacity (beds) and occupancy rates (%) EBITDA mg. vs. ANAHP EBITDA average mg.
78.0% 79.0%
24.5%
73.0% 74.0% 21.0%
15.8%
67.9% 13.7% 12.4%
10.8% 11.7%
8.0%
13
10
8
Covering 6
6 States
Slide 29
Healthcare and Dental Plans
Industry Assessment
Menu
Healthcare
Brazilian healthcare beneficiary evolution and coverage
Brazilian healthcare beneficiary evolution (mn) and coverage (%) Payroll job growth is one of the
main drivers of HC spending, as
24.6%
24.9% 70% of private healthcare
24.0% 24.0%
23.3%
23.7% coverage is corporate-based.
23.0% 23.1% 22.9%
22.7% 22.5%
22.3% 22.4%
50.6 50.5
49.5 49.1 48.9
47.8 47.7 47.5 12%
47.2 47.1 47.1
46.0
44.9
Corporate
18%
Individual
Affinity
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 70%
Slide 31
Healthcare
Brazilian healthcare beneficiary data x payroll job creation
Payroll job creation (seasonally adjusted) vs. HC net adds Payroll job creation (seasonally adjusted)
4,500 600
Thousands
Thousands
3,500 400
200
2,500
0
1,500 (200)
500 (400)
(600)
(500)
(800)
(1,500) (1,000)
(2,500) (1,200)
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Aug-15
Aug-16
Aug-17
Aug-18
Aug-19
Aug-20
Aug-21
Aug-22
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-22
LTM Payroll job creation (000's) LTM Net Adds Monthly 3M average
Slide 32
Healthcare
Brazilian payroll job creation per region
LTM payroll job creation per region in Brazil (not seasonally adjusted) – (000s)
Thousands
3,000
2,000
1,000
-1,000
-2,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Slide 33
Healthcare
Beneficiary age distribution evolution
10.0%
0.0%
Slide 34
Healthcare
Market share evolution
Main players' official m kt shares 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 3Q22 4Q22
We see vertically integrated players (like
8.6% 9.1% 9.7% 13.9% 15.7% 17.7% 18.0% 18.1%
HAPV) gaining the most market share in the
8.6% 7.9% 7.7% 7.8% 7.7% 7.8% 7.9% 8.0% HC industry going forward. But SULA is also
well positioned to expand its share given its
9.0% 8.7% 8.7% 7.6% 7.0% 6.8% 6.1% 6.1%
more competitive plans vs. other pure HC
4.2% 4.5% 4.7% 4.8% 5.1% 5.2% 5.5% TBA insurers, especially after it was acquired by
RDOR.
3.1% 3.1% 3.3% 3.6% 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9%
n.a. n.a. 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% In recent years, a high volume of M&As
paved the way for HAPV (now with GNDI)
0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8%
to become the market leader.
Source: Companies, ANS, BTG Pactual *HAPV already includes GNDI. ** For listed players we use
reported figures, for non-listed players we use ANS data
Slide 35
Healthcare
Market share evolution
Main players' official m kt shares 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 3Q22 4Q22
Source: Companies, ANS, BTG Pactual *HAPV already includes GNDI. ** For listed players
we use reported figures, for non-listed players we use ANS data
Slide 36
Healthcare
MLRs and monthly avg. tickets for listed players
MLR for main players (%) Monthly avg. tickets among main players (R$)
95% 93%
BBDC 750
90% 92% BBDC 679 SULA
88% 650 668
90% 88% SULA
85% 648 PSSA
Source: Companies, BTG Pactual HAPV* = HAPV + GNDI Source: Companies, BTG Pactual
Vertically integrated players (such as HAPV) operate with higher efficiency, as their networks of hospitals, labs and outpatient facilities are
seen as cost centers. The higher efficiency also allows the companies to operate with average tickets that are ~60% lower than
those of PPOs. However, we flag that MLR remains abnormally high vs. pre-pandemic levels, and avg. ticket adjustments have
not been strong enough to offset higher frequencies yet.
Slide 37
Healthcare
Premiums, medical claims and MLRs
In 2020, medical claims decreased y/y Healthcare – Historical premiums x medical claims (R$mn) x MLR levels (%)
for the first time in 20 years due to the
covid-19 pandemic. This drove the
88.5%
lowest MLR level in the series, which 84.6%
83.6% 84.0% 83.2%
82.3% 82.7% 83.3% 83.0%
was strongly reversed in 2021, a trend 81.2% 81.8% 81.8%
80.8% 80.8% 80.8% 80.1%
79.1% 78.8% 79.1% 79.9% 79.7%
that continued in 2022, with record 74.8%
plans in the 2021-2022 cycle are 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 9M22
Premiums (R$bn) Claims (R$bn) MLR
among the main reasons for this
trend. Source: ANS, BTG Pactual
*FY22 data was not disclosed yet
Slide 38
Healthcare
Premiums, medical claims and MLRs per year
Slide 39
Source: ANS, BTG Pactual
Healthcare
Revenue share
8.8%
by HAPV), PPOs have huge
7.9% 7.9%
representation in sector revenues, as
their average tickets are much higher
than those of HMOs.
2.6% 2.5%
2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
We estimate that Bradesco Saude has
the highest revenue share in the
BBDC HAPVIDA AMIL SULAMERICA CAIXA BCO DO CNU UNIMED RIO PREVENT UNIMED BH industry (11%), followed by HAPV
BRASIL
(9%), Amil (8%) and SULA (8%).
Source: Companies, ANS, BTG Pactual
Slide 40
Healthcare
Consolidation trend continues to play out
1,500
2002
2015
2000
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2014).
# of active perators
Slide 41
Healthcare
Geographic membership base distribution (# of private HC members)
State 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Nov-22 Dec-22
SP 18,732,829 18,108,688 17,438,062 17,167,121 17,129,517 17,096,260 17,121,692 17,679,393 18,090,001 18,192,142
MG 5,466,800 5,203,157 5,052,614 5,042,844 5,005,012 5,054,062 5,195,694 5,405,627 5,631,919 5,649,703
RJ 6,122,072 5,831,009 5,543,165 5,388,651 5,336,960 5,340,327 5,351,070 5,386,388 5,477,247 5,495,866
PR 2,865,410 2,852,826 2,828,384 2,847,823 2,846,990 2,853,693 2,867,478 2,954,819 3,050,473 3,056,906
RS 2,716,790 2,650,724 2,656,797 2,626,275 2,562,134 2,537,810 2,524,594 2,579,482 2,647,286 2,648,011
BA 1,680,396 1,652,194 1,600,883 1,594,924 1,604,800 1,584,921 1,546,141 1,606,380 1,669,939 1,683,159
SC 1,520,391 1,513,252 1,488,742 1,504,364 1,503,812 1,466,294 1,487,038 1,575,499 1,636,325 1,642,776
PE 1,494,657 1,387,701 1,368,490 1,335,825 1,346,996 1,343,376 1,353,166 1,372,290 1,385,652 1,394,549
CE 1,265,424 1,260,733 1,250,547 1,285,368 1,284,520 1,263,301 1,257,588 1,300,478 1,332,963 1,345,800
GO 1,093,471 1,110,878 1,107,170 1,125,676 1,156,386 1,195,409 1,253,340 1,264,169 1,329,062 1,338,917
ES 1,163,049 1,110,234 1,085,311 1,088,994 1,102,966 1,117,220 1,148,856 1,192,521 1,235,571 1,241,243
DF 920,752 906,120 889,590 863,229 896,607 894,108 921,574 921,500 925,312 932,295
PA 893,758 856,953 825,209 799,158 790,533 789,035 823,033 845,264 844,738 848,078
MT 551,012 563,475 554,185 562,216 577,543 575,186 588,457 620,828 650,022 654,573
MS 600,798 632,673 646,844 586,699 595,591 588,283 600,120 612,848 640,445 642,661
AM 573,512 523,863 524,362 530,360 511,692 518,152 542,442 575,179 600,490 606,208
RN 526,946 529,618 505,333 503,652 509,019 506,676 535,981 585,513 600,719 606,008
MA 489,822 488,337 460,720 459,992 467,279 475,095 447,875 472,314 496,197 497,094
PB 414,858 420,419 414,273 410,474 414,667 410,114 419,808 439,004 448,719 450,874
AL 397,675 401,686 397,711 379,097 376,644 369,700 369,025 373,968 384,187 387,049
PI 286,681 294,266 301,021 311,447 341,793 324,040 345,511 362,655 381,181 382,993
SE 317,623 322,412 313,728 312,855 320,415 317,889 313,367 322,297 331,295 333,141
RO 187,609 174,865 164,729 159,227 153,764 147,059 153,826 153,548 158,788 158,340
TO 100,651 101,394 104,514 105,920 108,850 105,551 112,058 114,404 119,779 120,034
AP 74,454 72,975 71,062 70,812 70,897 65,777 63,110 62,634 60,539 60,204
XX 22,598 20,772 27,422 29,094 45,230 52,427 51,841 49,232 50,604 50,272
AC 46,498 43,909 43,523 43,005 42,430 43,173 43,893 43,459 42,980 43,070
RR 34,181 30,469 29,809 28,914 28,778 28,475 29,975 30,459 31,164 31,097
Total 50,560,717 49,065,602 47,694,200 47,164,016 47,131,825 47,063,413 47,468,553 48,902,152 50,253,597 50,493,063
São Paulo market share (2022) Rio de Janeiro market share (2022) Minas Gerais market share (2022)
Market Share SP - Dec 22 Market Share MG - Dec 22
Market Share RJ - Dec 22
GNDI (now HAPV)
17% Bradesco Saúde Unimed BH
Amil 13%
Amil GNDI (now HAPV)
Bradesco Saúde 25%
Unimed Rio HAPV
38% 33%
SulAmérica
12% Assim Bradesco Saúde
11% Hapvida 45%
SulAmérica Unimed Divinópolis
Central Unimed Central Unimed
GNDI (now HAPV) 9%
10% Prevent Senior 11%
APPAI SulAmérica
Unimed Campinas Vale
2% 5% Central Unimed 6%
9% PSSA 10% 4% Cassi
2% 4% 4% 6% Cassi 3%
Other 8% Other
3% 3% Other 1% 1% 1% 3%
GNDI (now HAPV) 3,180,454 17% Bradesco Saúde 718,466 13% Unim ed BH 1,418,222 25%
Paraná market share (2022) Rio Grande do Sul mkt. share (2022) Bahia market share (2022)
Market Share PR - Dec 22 Market Share RS - Dec 22 Market Share BA - Dec 22
Unimed Curitiba Unimed Porto Alegre HAPV
17% GNDI (now HAPV)
22% Unimed NE RS Central Unimed
25%
SulAmérica GNDI (now HAPV) 33% Bradesco Saúde
43% 9% Unimed Londrina Unimed VTRP SulAmérica
46%
Unimed Maringá Central Unimed Cassi
Athena 8%
7% Bradesco Saúde Amil
Amil Cassi 14% GNDI (now HAPV)
6% 8% 1%
1%
Central Unimed SulAmérica 3% GEAP
5% 6%
4% Bradesco Saúde 3% Athena 6% 14% Unimed Rio
3%4% Other
3% 3%
3% Other Other
1%
HC - Corporate 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Nov-22 2022
GNDI* 2,026,935 2,314,779 2,779,323 2,966,600 3,137,186 3,474,760 3,597,439 3,729,764 3,909,657 3,947,580
BBDC 4,100,896 3,998,191 3,659,846 3,314,919 3,218,847 3,262,242 3,294,555 3,435,375 3,716,574 3,732,767
HAPV* 2,040,933 2,070,956 2,249,361 2,453,366 2,565,371 2,708,559 2,841,676 2,908,007 2,883,560 2,931,137
SULA 1,623,681 1,649,521 1,645,444 1,814,717 1,886,584 1,992,437 2,116,749 2,289,490 2,455,224 2,500,367
Amil 3,124,619 3,004,390 3,060,580 2,982,503 3,057,623 2,615,245 2,462,067 2,576,858 2,417,682 2,443,477
Central Unimed 1,571,470 1,675,062 1,434,742 1,429,619 1,484,785 1,518,555 1,588,888 1,754,390 1,793,674 1,817,306
Unimed BH 799,626 720,739 708,987 744,958 768,017 795,252 814,395 871,313 989,319 988,920
Cassi 638,068 640,719 638,189 632,477 625,600 604,947 585,429 561,975 551,140 550,380
Athena 386,153 385,160 389,271 410,801 428,535 445,913 476,572 481,621 474,093 472,466
Unimed Porto Alegre 398,096 439,083 446,407 437,597 430,025 407,391 424,637 443,669 457,535 454,351
PSSA 273,280 241,004 225,860 239,478 241,317 261,801 271,766 345,442 396,645 390,276
Unimed Campinas 406,495 419,487 406,604 393,861 397,533 383,401 359,046 360,464 380,977 382,454
Unimed Curitiba 299,979 306,557 299,053 294,874 293,424 305,383 311,070 334,245 360,706 362,688
Assim 202,571 230,170 263,074 375,097 331,956 362,613 374,793 323,673 316,654 317,176
Other 15,729,402 14,695,242 13,495,047 13,070,731 12,886,539 12,624,969 12,576,722 13,249,243 13,864,583 13,913,005
Total 33,622,204 32,791,060 31,701,788 31,561,598 31,753,342 31,763,468 32,095,804 33,665,529 34,968,023 35,204,350
Source: ANS
HC - Corporate 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Nov-22 2022
GNDI* 6% 7% 9% 9% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11%
BBDC 12% 12% 12% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11%
HAPV* 6% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8%
SULA 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Amil 9% 9% 10% 9% 10% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7%
Central Unimed 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Unimed BH 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Cassi 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Athena 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Unimed Porto Alegre 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
PSSA 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Unimed Campinas 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Unimed Curitiba 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Assim 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Source: ANS and BTG Pactual Other 47% 45% 43% 41% 41% 40% 39% 39% 40% 40%
Slide 45
Healthcare
Market share and geographic distribution (# of private HC members) – Affinity segment
HC - Affinity 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Nov-22 2022
HAPV* 131,608 155,019 215,761 250,618 296,215 351,023 403,234 415,827 391,818 395,721
Unimed BH 205,481 217,651 225,362 236,504 246,403 257,440 278,751 296,882 311,885 312,147
APPAI 209,888 215,691 225,230 236,319 252,287 268,607 266,851 264,017 271,108 271,982
GNDI* 231,471 246,989 262,923 257,571 236,685 257,563 277,193 274,690 270,648 270,240
Unimed Rio 358,008 316,114 257,813 218,767 235,604 265,259 282,294 282,790 272,067 268,236
SULA 394,947 385,713 349,000 336,767 335,730 295,157 266,398 235,935 229,202 227,709
Amil 466,519 470,766 380,609 302,908 266,881 253,712 227,594 194,853 159,421 158,581
BBDC 83,546 118,423 126,103 132,328 121,426 124,312 139,547 126,410 137,558 135,716
Central Unimed 51,442 80,920 44,858 34,669 33,242 118,297 118,643 122,173 116,954 115,553
Athena 47,129 48,064 54,236 59,543 64,480 74,683 90,838 116,491 115,501 112,913
Unimed Porto Alegre 97,433 97,341 105,937 110,155 110,804 107,373 104,834 105,507 106,191 106,586
Assim 10,696 9,218 11,712 17,529 29,241 52,145 82,530 101,262 99,935 98,466
Unimed Vitória 57,980 82,004 95,235 96,675 100,163 97,401 97,697 92,307 92,721 93,334
Unimed Divinópolis 70,899 84,303 86,665 86,185 84,764 85,207 83,411 81,057 79,569 79,577
Other 4,279,321 4,010,741 3,910,585 3,853,439 3,743,290 3,575,749 3,558,946 3,584,416 3,610,538 3,617,124
Total 6,696,368 6,538,957 6,352,029 6,229,977 6,157,215 6,183,928 6,278,761 6,294,617 6,265,116 6,263,885
Source: ANS
HC - Affinity 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Nov-22 2022
HAPV* 2% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6%
Unimed BH 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5%
APPAI 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
GNDI* 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Unimed Rio 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
SULA 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Amil 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3%
BBDC 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Central Unimed 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Athena 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2%
Unimed Porto Alegre 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Assim 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2%
Unimed Vitória 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Unimed Divinópolis 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
HC - Individual 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Nov-22 2022
HAPV* 8% 8% 9% 10% 11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12%
GNDI* 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6%
Prevent Senior 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6%
Amil 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 6%
Athena 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Unimed Goiania 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Unimed BH 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Unimed Belém 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Unimed Curitiba 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Unimed Rio 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Assim 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Unimed Fortaleza 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Unimed Campinas 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
SULA 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Top 15 players in the individual HC plan segment (lives) Top 10 players in the individual HC plan segment (lives)
HAPV 18.2%
Prevent Senior 5.6% 1.6%
1.8%
Amil 5.6% 1.8%
Athena 2.4%
1.8%
Unimed Goiania 2.2%
Unimed BH 2.2%
2.2%
Unimed Belém 1.8%
18.2%
Unimed Curitiba 1.8%
2.2%
Unimed Rio 1.8%
Assim 1.6%
Unimed Fortaleza 1.4%
2.4%
Unimed Campinas 1.3%
SULA 1.3%
BBDC 1.2% 5.6%
Unimed de Londrina 0.9%
Others 50.6% 5.6%
Source: ANS, BTG Pactual
Slide 48
Healthcare
Individual plan membership exposure
Individual plan membership (000s) and % of total base (as per ANS #s)
Hapvida is the market leader in
93% individual HC plans. The
HAPV* Prevent Senior Amil Athena SULA BBDC Central Unimed Prevent Senior is the company
Individual beneficiaries (000s) Individuals as % of total base with the highest exposure to
individual plans, which
Source: ANS, BTG Pactual represent 93% of its base.
Slide 49
Healthcare
Annual price hikes for individual HC plans
2001
2020
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2021
2022
2023
remained abnormally high during 2022,
we forecast a 9% price hike for 2023-
2024.
Source: ANS, BTG Pactual
Slide 50
Healthcare
Annual price hikes for individual HC plans. We expect a 9% hike for 2023-2024!
Assuming that 4Q22 individual medical claims per member (not yet
Year 2022E
announced by ANS) grew an average of 6% y/y for the industry, VDA
VDA (Costs) 12.5%
(medical claims of individual HC plans weighted by membership base
VFE (Age Adj) 1.5%
variation, ex-outliers) should have increased around 12.5% y/y in 2022.
Adj VDA 10.8%
Considering a 1.5% VFE and a 1.1% FGE, we reach a 9.7% IVDA
FGE (Buffer) 1.1%
(which has 80% weight in ANS’s equation).
IVDA 9.7%
IPCA 5.8%
IPCA inflation excluding healthcare was ~5.5% last year (20%
IPCA (ex-HC) 5.5%
weight in ANS’s equation).
IVDA Weight 80%
IPCA* Weight 20%
So, assuming a 1.1% efficiency factor, we estimate that the next price
Readjustm ent 8.9% hike for individual HC plans will be 9%!
Annual price hikes for HC group contracts According to ANS data, similar to what
happened with individual HC plans,
24.0%
price adjustments for group contracts
22.0%
20.0%
were negatively impacted during 2021, a
14.0%
13.4% 2022 figures (until November)
12.5%
12.0%
11.4% indicate that BBDC applied an
11.2%
10.0% 10.6%
average price hike of 18% on group
8.0%
contracts, followed by Amil (13.4%),
6.0%
4.0%
CNU (12.5%), HAPV (11.4%) and
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Industry HAPV (+GNDI) SULA BBDC CNU AMIL
SULA (11.2%), all above industry
average.
Avg. annual price hikes for HC group contracts vs. individual plans vs. IPCA
20.0%
15.5%
14.1%
15.0% 13.6% 13.6%
-5.0%
-10.0% -8.2%
Group Contracts Individual Plans IPCA
Slide 53
Healthcare
Self-management operators
-0.8%
Millions
-2.7%
-3.2% -3.0%
-3.3% With the ongoing consolidation in the
5.01 -3.8%
4.85 -4.2% -4.3% industry, self-management operators shrank
4.72
4.57 from more than 5mn beneficiaries in 2015 to
4.38
4.25 less than 3.92mn in 2022.
4.09
3.91
Slide 54
New Hapvida
Snapshot (consolidated
with GNDI)
Slide 65
Dental Data
Dental market share evolution
Listed players' official m arket shares 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 3Q22 4Q22
Source: Companies, ANS, BTG Pactual *HAPV already includes GNDI. ** For listed
players we use reported figures, for non-listed players we use ANS data
Slide 66
Dental Data
Dental – Geographic membership base distribution
State 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
SP 6,911,452 7,159,339 7,430,917 7,949,800 8,428,333 9,054,706 9,626,653 10,404,540 11,144,821
RJ 2,827,939 2,967,710 2,810,968 2,838,244 3,147,341 3,428,462 3,316,497 3,468,351 3,624,800
MG 1,661,931 1,756,267 1,796,396 1,901,493 2,053,343 2,160,950 2,255,783 2,553,798 2,772,067
BA 1,192,054 1,233,660 1,242,934 1,360,750 1,519,275 1,538,890 1,476,530 1,576,861 1,703,459
PR 1,093,199 1,103,985 1,085,197 1,135,045 1,232,202 1,291,184 1,329,307 1,553,218 1,638,170
PE 757,914 764,460 801,402 874,189 906,483 975,481 1,041,905 1,148,388 1,232,382
CE 614,562 665,950 704,956 797,766 946,316 968,648 1,001,064 1,054,837 1,155,412
RS 633,063 661,033 696,943 728,398 755,767 773,671 777,505 828,492 878,277
GO 509,387 554,014 578,368 619,769 655,139 687,750 728,682 759,181 836,640
SC 395,680 436,402 446,980 473,159 489,779 541,219 601,553 781,746 831,179
ES 359,500 407,275 420,222 422,114 495,399 521,082 560,909 623,397 674,944
DF 706,484 517,904 494,901 463,690 536,076 579,168 614,469 623,799 654,907
PA 389,181 402,771 400,406 393,307 414,627 436,591 470,933 522,551 542,589
AM 379,534 375,782 355,254 360,205 398,033 429,638 462,163 496,883 514,512
RN 271,544 282,683 288,249 304,099 335,200 344,753 372,617 443,642 498,068
PB 203,426 249,893 268,820 301,443 344,790 384,763 392,551 427,179 467,817
AL 298,053 296,049 266,793 261,931 278,979 275,814 279,964 287,739 317,489
MA 170,240 159,336 162,854 178,761 198,042 201,537 225,424 247,192 285,305
MT 114,882 140,828 156,667 180,798 200,773 217,415 221,395 236,482 258,691
SE 191,644 193,164 176,966 192,342 207,343 208,660 213,565 217,675 228,933
MS 102,377 109,465 122,077 128,342 140,353 143,562 153,905 164,759 189,787
PI 60,435 62,825 65,331 73,130 89,530 91,913 106,859 130,814 153,042
TO 33,666 35,032 39,500 41,740 48,843 126,205 63,845 130,525 131,359
RO 62,605 90,931 96,284 103,669 109,405 104,090 113,251 110,716 116,707
AP 34,739 36,565 40,655 46,056 44,210 44,830 49,385 51,192 54,812
AC 11,823 13,982 12,678 13,730 15,047 15,506 15,947 17,217 18,333
RR 6,598 7,153 8,602 9,190 9,210 11,246 12,082 11,717 12,681
XX 21,055 68,680 183,706 104,059 66,163 37,361 15,256 12,662 7,489
Source: ANS and BTG Pactual
Slide 67
Total 20,014,967 20,753,138 21,155,026 22,257,219 24,066,001 25,595,095 26,499,999 28,885,553 30,944,672
Odontoprev
Snapshot
Menu
Labs
Revenue share of listed diagnostics players
17%
40.6
36.0
33.6 32.1
30.1 10%
28.2
25.2
5%
64%
Others 3%
Slide 76
Labs
Market share (revenues) of listed diagnostics players
Gross revenues per listed player (R$ mn) Market share (revenues)
Gross Revenues (R$ m n) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Com pany 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
3,175 3,353 3,718 4,212 4,653 5,081 7,049 DASA Mkt Share (in revenues) 12.6% 11.9% 12.4% 12.5% 12.9% 15.8% 17.4%
2,097 2,300 2,587 2,880 3,142 3,207 3,949 FLRY Mkt Share (in revenues) 8.3% 8.2% 8.6% 8.6% 8.7% 10.0% 9.7%
826 973 1,210 1,297 1,454 1,605 2,141 PARD Mkt Share (in revenues) 3.3% 3.5% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0% 5.0% 5.3%
737 957 1,124 1,162 1,158 999 1,223 AALR Mkt Share (in revenues) 2.9% 3.4% 3.7% 3.5% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0%
Slide 77
Labs
PSC (patient service center) distribution by region
2022
Jan-23
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Rio de Janeiro 3,755 15.4%
São Pauo 5,918 24.2%
South 4,829 19.8%
Paraná 2,243 9.2% Source: Health Ministry, CNES, 2023
Santa Catarina 1,160 4.7%
Rio Grande do Sul 1,426 5.8%
Middle w est 2,370 9.7%
Mato Grosso do Sul 362 1.5%
Mato Grosso do Sul 602 2.5%
Goiás 1,021 4.2%
Distrito Federal 385 1.6%
Slide 78
Brazil 24,431
Labs
PSC (patient service center) distribution by region
Source: CNES Datasus, BTG Pactual, Companies. *2022 #s are from 3Q22 Source: CNES Datasus, BTG Pactual, Companies. *2022 #s are from 3Q22
Slide 79
Labs
Diagnostics medical claims
841.77
764.86
712.84
675.30
638.38
591.34
Slide 80
Labs
Revenue breakdown by paying source
Labs sector – Revenue breakdown by paying source (%) - 2021 Diagnostic procedures (mn) - 2020
5%
15%
HC Plans
L2L 783 785.6
54% Out of Pocket
Public
24%
Private SUS
Slide 81
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Labs
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Source: IBGE
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
IPCA (CPI index) – Clinical analysis – LTM
May-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
5.68%
IPCA (CPI index) – Clinical analysis and imaging exams
10.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Source: IBGE
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
IPCA (CPI index) – Imaging exams – LTM
May-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
5.48%
Slide 82
Oncology
Menu
Oncology
Cancer cases have been on the rise in Brazil over the last few years
561,133 552,442
503,389
477,595
315,632 317,168
349,460
282,530
285,796
190,808
179,527 178,780 181,409 187,001 193,562
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Men Women
Slide 84
Oncology
But the # of cases should be higher than reported due to misdiagnosis
294
infrastructure, resulting in a lower number of
281
113
That said, ANS forecasts a 25% increase in
cancer cases among private HC beneficiaries
over the next few years.
Brazil UK EUA Canada França Belgium Nova Zelandia Australia
Slide 85
Oncology
Oncology should be the most relevant therapeutic drug class in 2024
Top 10 therapeutic drug classes in terms of global sales by 2024 (US$ bn)
233.1
Slide 86
Oncology
Oncology also leads the way in clinical studies, followed by infectious diseases - 2019
3,791
2,470
2,281
1,987
1,384 1,371
1,111
925
235 214
Oncology Infectious Nervous system Autoimmune Metabolic Cardiovascular Vaccines Genitourinary Ophthalmology Others
Diseases Diseases Diseases
Source: Interfarma
Slide 87
Oncology
Mortality rates remain high, implying room to increase treatments
Slide 88
Oncology
Listed players' reported metrics
382.5
2,923.5
319.6
300.3
2,220.9
Slide 89
Oncology
Listed players' reported metrics
12.7
13.4 revenues by # of infusions, Kora Saúde has
11.7
10.7
the highest avg. ticket, at R$13k per
10.4
9.7
9.0 8.8 8.9 procedure.
8.5 8.5
7.5 7.6
6.9
6.2
5.8
4.7 5.0 Despite the pandemic, avg. oncology ticket
continues to grow at a strong pace,
contrasting other HC segments – see next
Slide 90
Oncology
Listed players' reported metrics
40%
35%
30%
During the pandemic, oncology proved to be a
25%
very resilient business. Despite the 22% 23%
20% 21%
challenges faced by other segments, players 17%
16%
15%
managed to post double-digit avg. ticket 15%
10%
expansion on a recurring basis.
5%
0%
1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22
Slide 91
M&As in the HC sector
Menu
Healthcare M&As
After several years of strong activity, M&As plummeted in 2022
32
25
22
21
16 16 16
14
13 13
12
11 11
10
9
7 7 7 7
6
5 5 5
4 4 4 4
3 3 3 3 3 3 3
2 2 2 2
1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Slide 93
Healthcare M&As
Recent transformational M&As
+ + +
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Slide 95
Hospital M&As
Hospital M&A deals performed in 2022
479
1 2 3 4
Slide 96
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
0
Jul-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Sep-18
HC Plan M&As
Sep-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
May-19
EV/member moving average (R$)
May-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Nov-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Mov Avg
Jun-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Jul-20
Source: Companies, BTG Pactual
Total Avg
Jul-20
Aug-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Sep-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
EV/member (R$) moving avg. (last 5 deals) vs. historical average
Dec-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Oct-22
Slide 97
Lab M&As
Lab M&As performed in 2022
1 1
There were 11 deals involving
labs last year.
Slide 98
HC supply chain M&As
# of deals involving supply chain players in recent years 2021-22 deals involving supply chain players
16
13
11
7
5
3 3
2
1
Elfa Viveo
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Slide 99
General
Macroeconomic and general HC data
Menu
Macro Overview
Macroeconomic and general HC data
Average life expectation of Brazilians jumped by 35 years in Elderly population will soar, with ~14mn HC plan penetration among Brazilian population is below its
recent decades joining the 60+ group over the next 15 years historical peak
2003
2005
2020
2022
2000
2001
2002
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2021
1940 41.5
60-65 Yrs 66-75 76+
Penetration of HC plans (%) in each region of Brazil. The Northeast and North, where Hapvida
leads the market, are the regions with lowest penetration (mn people)
5.7% 5.8%
5.2% 5.3% 5.4%
4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 4.6% 4.9%
4.4% 4.3% 4.5%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Slide 102
Macro Overview
Macroeconomic and general HC data
Healthcare expenses as % of Brazil’s GDP vs. other countries (%) – 2019 (latest data)
11.7%
11.1% 11.1%
10.2%
9.6% 9.4%
8.8%
7.7%
5.5%
Germany
France
Japan
UK
Brazil
Chile
OECD
Colombia
Mexico
OECD
161.4 155.5
150.5
136.4
121.9 127.1
120.4
108.2 114.2
102.7
14.1
Slide 104
Macro Overview
Macroeconomic and general HC data
Slide 105
Macro Overview
Covid-19 hit VCMH and claims per member hard in 2020, but figures accelerated again in 2021
30.0%
25.0% 25.0%
20.0% 20.5%
15.0%
10.0% 10.1%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Slide 106
Appendix
Bradesco Saúde + Mediservice 2018 2019 2020 2021 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 2022
Mem bers (m n) 3.63 3.67 3.66 3.80 3.86 3.93 3.98 4.04 4.04
y/y growth -3.0% 1.1% -0.2% 3.8% 4.9% 5.8% 6.6% 6.4% 6.4%
Net Adds -0.11 0.04 -0.01 0.14 0.06 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.242
Corporate (mn) 3.48 3.53 3.53 3.68 3.74 3.81 3.86 3.93 3.93
y/y growth -2.9% 1.4% 0.0% 4.2% 5.3% 6.2% 7.0% 6.7% 6.7%
Net Adds -0.10 0.05 0.00 0.15 0.06 0.07 0.05 0.0640 0.25
Financials Individual (mn) 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11
y/y growth -5.9% -6.3% -5.2% -7.1% -6.4% -4.9% -4.2% -3.4% -3.4%
Net Adds -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.001 0.00
Gross Average Ticket [R$/m onth] 539.9 589.3 613.7 695.2 714.5 733.9 769.9 792.2 747.4
y/y growth 11.9% 9.2% 4.1% 13.3% 5.9% 4.5% 9.3% 11.3% 7.5%
q/q growth 2.8% 2.7% 4.9% 2.9%
MLR 86.6% 85.5% 84.3% 92.0% 91.0% 92.8% 92.8% 91.5% 92.0%
y/y growth -2.0 p.p. -1.1 p.p. -1.2 p.p. 7.6 p.p. 3.8 p.p. -2.3 p.p. -1.6 p.p. 0.5 p.p. 0.1 p.p.
MLR ex-provisions 86.6% 85.5% 82.0% 89.9% 91.0% 92.8% 92.8% 91.5% 90.3%
y/y growth -2.0 p.p. -1.1 p.p. -3.5 p.p. 8.0 p.p. 3.8 p.p. 0.4 p.p. -1.6 p.p. 0.5 p.p. 0.3 p.p.
Adj. Net Incom e (R$ m n) 942 1,206 1,073 1,016 323 265 72 81 741
y/y growth 28.0% -11.0% -5.3% 2.9% 71.0% -68.6% -74.5% -27.1%
MLR UNIT 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Healthcare Plan Reveunes R$m n 8,027.4 9,756.9 12,211.8 14,461.9 16,765.2 19,289.9 21,188.0 22,196.7 20,476.6 20,652.7
Medical Claims R$mn (6,314.6) (7,817.1) (10,320.3) (11,752.2) (14,034.2) (15,856.0) (17,818.6) (19,166.8) (16,193.1) (18,201.5)
IBNR R$mn (45.4) (155.0) (150.8) 1.0 (133.7) (13.0) (114.2) (189.4) 160.0 (370.6)
M LR % 79.2% 81.7% 85.7% 81.3% 84.5% 82.3% 84.6% 87.2% 78.3% 89.9%
Growth y/y p.p. -0.1p.p. 2.5p.p. 4.0p.p. -4.5p.p. 3.3p.p. -2.2p.p. 2.4p.p. 2.6p.p. -8.9p.p. 11.6p.p.
M LR (ex-IBNR) % 78.7% 80.1% 84.5% 81.3% 83.7% 82.2% 84.1% 86.3% 79.1% 88.1%
Growth y/y p.p. -0.1p.p. 1.5p.p. 4.4p.p. -3.2p.p. 2.4p.p. -1.5p.p. 1.9p.p. 2.3p.p. -7.3p.p. 9.1p.p.
Health Care 377 349 293 256 238 246 250 266 271 349 369 395 413 413 413
y/y growth -6.2% -7.4% -16.0% -12.6% -7.0% 3.4% 1.6% 6.4% 1.9% 28.8% 34.5% 35.1% 30.3% 18.3% 18.3%
Net Adds -25.0 -28.0 -56.0 -37.0 -18.0 8.0 4.0 16.0 5.0 78.0 20.0 26.0 17.6 0.4 64.0
Dental 197 271 368 479 525 519 541 596 631 653 650 660 653 668 668
y/y growth 19.4% 37.6% 35.8% 30.2% 9.6% -1.1% 4.2% 10.2% 5.9% 3.5% -0.1% -0.8% -1.1% 2.3% 2.3%
Net Adds 32.0 74.0 97.0 111.0 46.0 -6.0 22.0 55.0 35.0 21.9 -2.9 10.0 -7.1 15.1 15.1
Average Ticket [R$/m onth] 135.1 140.1 139.7 125.7 124.5 137.6 157.2 171.0 179.6 189.6 226.8 242.8 258.9 269.4 247.5
y/y growth -0.5% 3.7% -0.3% -10.0% -1.0% 10.5% 14.3% 8.8% 5.0% 5.5% 26.4% 34.2% 34.4% 26.1% 30.6%
Financials Health Care 193.0 221.9 269.5 309.3 349.4 393.6 446.5 502.9 536.2 554.2 603.8 626.1 648.1 668.4 625.0
y/y growth 9.8% 15.0% 21.5% 14.8% 13.0% 12.6% 13.5% 12.6% 6.6% 3.4% 8.7% 11.6% 13.7% 11.8% 12.8%
q/q growth 1.0% 3.7% 3.5% 3.1%
Dental 14.7 15.0 14.8 15.1 16.3 17.6 18.5 19.3 19.3 18.6 19.1 19.2 19.6 20.0 19.4
y/y growth 0.6% 1.8% -1.0% 1.6% 8.1% 8.3% 4.7% 4.4% -0.2% -3.3% -2.4% 11.7% 2.1% 5.8% 4.2%
Prem ium s 968 1,007 1,067 1,071 1,114 1,260 1,481 1,668 1,885 2,196 688 755 824 867 3,134
y/y growth 13.6% 4.1% 5.9% 0.4% 4.0% 13.1% 17.6% 12.6% 13.0% 16.5% 39.8% 47.9% 47.3% 36.7% 42.7%
Claim s (763) (790) (798) (796) (873) (968) (1,128) (1,262) (1,358) (1,740) (516) (611) (729) (687) (2,544)
y/y growth 15.1% 3.5% 1.0% -0.3% 9.8% 10.8% 16.6% 11.8% 7.6% 28.2% 48.2% 45.0% 50.3% 41.5% 46.1%
Prem ium s - Claim s 205 217 269 275 241 292 353 406 527 455 171 144 95 180 590
y/y growth 8.2% 6.2% 23.9% 2.3% -12.6% 21.4% 20.7% 15.2% 29.7% -13.6% 19.3% 61.7% 27.8% 21.1% 29.6%
Claim s/Mem ber (1,912) (2,115) (2,392) (2,725) (3,306) (3,768) (4,337) (4,668) (4,839) (5,400) (1,393) (1,553) (1,756) (1,621) (6,487)
y/y growth 10.6% 13.1% 13.9% 21.3% 14.0% 15.1% 7.6% 3.7% 11.6% 14.2% 8.1% 14.2% 15.7% 20.1%
MLR 78.9% 78.4% 74.8% 74.3% 78.4% 76.8% 76.2% 75.6% 72.0% 79.3% 75.1% 80.9% 88.5% 79.3% 81.2%
y/y growth 1.0 p.p. -0.4 p.p. -3.7 p.p. -0.5 p.p. 4.1 p.p. -1.6 p.p. -0.6 p.p. -0.5 p.p. -3.6 p.p. 7.2 p.p. 4.3 p.p. -1.6 p.p. 1.8 p.p. 2.7 p.p. 1.9 p.p.
Health Care 79.8% 79.6% 76.1% 75.5% 80.4% 79.3% 78.9% 78.3% 74.4% 81.7% 76.9% 82.7% 90.3% 80.8% 82.9%
y/y growth 1.4 p.p. -0.2 p.p. -3.5 p.p. -0.6 p.p. 4.9 p.p. -1.1 p.p. -0.4 p.p. -0.6 p.p. -3.8 p.p. 7.3 p.p. 3.7 p.p. -2.7 p.p. 0.4 p.p. 2.7 p.p. 1.2 p.p.
Dental 54.2% 50.9% 51.5% 59.6% 57.1% 50.3% 44.8% 44.3% 42.1% 45.1% 43.4% 47.1% 51.5% 46.2% 47.1%
y/y growth -4.3 p.p. -3.3 p.p. 0.6 p.p. 8.1 p.p. -2.5 p.p. -6.8 p.p. -5.5 p.p. -0.5 p.p. -2.2 p.p. 3.0 p.p. 1.6 p.p. 4.5 p.p. 8.0 p.p. -6.2 p.p. 2.0 p.p.
MLR (LTM) 78.9% 78.4% 74.8% 74.3% 78.4% 76.8% 76.2% 75.6% 72.0% 79.3% 79.8% 79.6% 80.9% 80.3% 81.2%
Sequential growth 1.0 p.p. -0.4 p.p. -3.7 p.p. -0.5 p.p. 4.1 p.p. -1.6 p.p. -0.6 p.p. -0.5 p.p. -3.6 p.p. 7.2 p.p. 0.5 p.p. -0.2 p.p. 1.3 p.p. -0.6 p.p. 1.9 p.p.
MLR UNIT 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Healthcare Plan Reveunes R$m n 3,432.1 4,662.2 4,979.0 5,004.3 4,049.4 4,312.7 4,563.9 4,905.1 5,083.3
Medical Claims R$mn (2,421.5) (3,978.1) (3,895.3) (3,961.9) (3,045.2) (3,286.2) (3,524.0) (3,454.9) (4,181.1)
IBNR R$mn (109.2) (129.1) 12.6 (8.5) 84.4 (21.2) (81.6) 23.5 (3.3)
M LR (ex-IBNR) % 70.6% 85.3% 78.2% 79.2% 75.2% 76.2% 77.2% 70.4% 82.3%
Growth y/y p.p. -2.6p.p. 14.8p.p. -7.1p.p. 0.9p.p. -4.0p.p. 1.0p.p. 1.0p.p. -6.8p.p. 11.8p.p.
MLR UNIT 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Healthcare Plan Reveunes R$m n 1,355.8 1,512.4 1,696.1 1,897.2 2,462.8 2,689.8 2,775.4 2,997.6
Medical Claims R$mn (1,139.6) (1,284.9) (1,452.7) (1,643.0) (2,128.7) (2,296.9) (2,197.3) (2,634.1)
IBNR R$mn (8.8) (10.2) (2.2) (15.7) 4.8 (7.8) 4.4 (33.3)
MLR UNIT 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Healthcare Plan Revenues R$m n 565.0 724.1 1,067.6 1,476.9 1,902.2 2,328.6 2,871.5 3,488.0 4,097.1 4,928.1
Medical Claims R$mn (389.7) (570.9) (747.1) (1,065.3) (1,428.3) (1,829.5) (2,048.0) (2,452.4) (2,903.3) (4,446.5)
IBNR R$mn (17.9) 37.4 (1.6) (6.2) 3.5 (0.6) 4.1 (0.4) (10.7) (34.9)
M LR % 72.1% 73.7% 70.1% 72.6% 74.9% 78.6% 71.2% 70.3% 71.1% 90.9%
Growth y/y p.p. 5.7p.p. 1.5p.p. -3.6p.p. 2.4p.p. 2.4p.p. 3.7p.p. -7.4p.p. -0.9p.p. 0.8p.p. 19.8p.p.
M LR (ex-IBNR) % 69.0% 78.8% 70.0% 72.1% 75.1% 78.6% 71.3% 70.3% 70.9% 90.2%
Growth y/y p.p. 5.1p.p. 9.9p.p. -8.9p.p. 2.2p.p. 3.0p.p. 3.5p.p. -7.2p.p. -1.0p.p. 0.6p.p. 19.4p.p.
MLR UNIT 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Healthcare Plan Reveunes R$m n 720.5 825.3 947.2 1,148.6 1,245.0 1,378.1 1,500.0 1,612.2 1,706.5 1,755.8
Medical Claims R$mn (580.5) (655.8) (763.0) (927.3) (1,033.0) (1,131.0) (1,145.3) (1,257.4) (1,165.9) (1,426.7)
IBNR R$mn (7.7) (11.0) (8.6) (10.5) (5.5) (5.5) 6.2 (6.3) (3.5) (7.2)
M LR % 81.6% 80.8% 81.5% 81.6% 83.4% 82.5% 75.9% 78.4% 68.5% 81.7%
Growth y/y p.p. - -0.8p.p. 0.7p.p. 0.2p.p. 1.8p.p. -0.9p.p. -6.5p.p. 2.4p.p. -9.9p.p. 13.1p.p.
M LR (ex-IBNR) % 80.6% 79.5% 80.6% 80.7% 83.0% 82.1% 76.4% 78.0% 68.3% 81.3%
Growth y/y p.p. - -1.1p.p. 1.1p.p. 0.2p.p. 2.2p.p. -0.9p.p. -5.7p.p. 1.6p.p. -9.7p.p. 12.9p.p.
Financials EBITDA R$m n 8.9 17.1 21.8 21.3 16.5 72.0 65.6 97.4 174.4 104.5
Financial Results R$mn 2.7 4.1 8.3 13.9 20.4 22.3 14.6 22.6 8.1 30.4
Equity Income R$mn 0.0 0.6 (0.2) (0.0) (0.0) 0.7 0.1 (0.1) (1.4) 0.0
EBT R$m n 11.1 21.0 28.8 34.0 35.8 93.9 77.5 115.8 175.6 124.3
Income Taxes R$mn (3.4) (6.7) (10.2) (11.3) (15.5) (41.7) (15.7) (36.1) (64.0) (42.9)
Net Incom e R$m n 7.7 14.3 18.6 22.7 20.3 52.2 61.8 79.7 111.6 81.4
Effective Tax Rate % 30.5% 32.0% 35.5% 33.3% 43.3% 44.4% 20.2% 31.2% 36.4% 34.5%
MLR UNIT 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Healthcare Plan Reveunes R$m n 256.7 317.9 401.8 562.0 671.5 784.0 882.7 1,028.2 1,157.5 1,316.4
Medical Claims R$mn (197.6) (234.2) (294.3) (427.6) (524.9) (581.8) (614.1) (715.8) (717.6) (929.3)
IBNR R$mn (3.3) (8.5) (10.6) (12.1) (5.9) 1.2 (6.7) (7.6) (4.2) (14.9)
M LR % 78.3% 76.3% 75.9% 78.2% 79.0% 74.1% 70.3% 70.3% 62.4% 71.7%
Growth y/y p.p. 1.7p.p. -1.9p.p. -0.5p.p. 2.4p.p. 0.8p.p. -5.0p.p. -3.7p.p. 0.0p.p. -8.0p.p. 9.4p.p.
M LR (ex-IBNR) % 77.0% 73.7% 73.2% 76.1% 78.2% 74.2% 69.6% 69.6% 62.0% 70.6%
Growth y/y p.p. -2.7p.p. -3.3p.p. -0.4p.p. 2.8p.p. 2.1p.p. -4.0p.p. -4.6p.p. 0.0p.p. -7.6p.p. 8.6p.p.
MLR UNIT 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Healthcare Plan Reveunes R$m n 85.0 107.7 137.0 199.6 249.5 305.9 341.7 289.2 251.4
Medical Claims R$mn (64.5) (80.8) (110.1) (153.0) (194.0) (239.0) (258.7) (235.6) (239.0)
IBNR R$mn (7.3) (3.0) (1.4) 0.3 (5.0) (1.7) (3.8) (3.7) (5.3)
M LR (ex-IBNR) % 75.9% 75.0% 80.4% 76.7% 77.7% 78.1% 75.7% 81.4% 95.0%
Growth y/y p.p. - -0.9p.p. 5.3p.p. -3.7p.p. 1.1p.p. 0.4p.p. -2.4p.p. 5.7p.p. 13.6p.p.
Net Debt/ EBITDA (IFRS16) x 4.6x 7.1x 5.1x 8.8x 9.3x 9.0x 8.7x
Net Debt/ Adj. EBITDA (IFRS16) x 4.3x 6.3x 4.3x 5.8x 6.5x 6.4x 6.3x
Net Debt/ EBITDA (IFRS16) x 2.6x 2.5x 8.0x 2.7x 4.9x 3.9x 6.0x
Net Debt/ Adj. EBITDA (IFRS16) x 1.9x 2.1x 3.2x 1.7x 3.1x 3.9x 4.8x
Financials Other Opera tiona l Expens es /Revenues R$ mn (1.8) (3.9) (2.8) (3.5) 4.7 3.4
EBIT R$ mn 3.7 13.3 27.2 26.0 37.6 10.6
D&A R$ mn 3.6 4.5 5.8 6.4 8.0 8.8
EBITDA R$ mn 7.3 17.9 33.0 32.4 45.7 19.4
Net Fi na nci a l Res ul t R$ mn (1.9) (1.6) (1.9) 1.2 0.4 2.9
EBT R$ mn 1.8 11.8 25.3 27.2 38.0 13.5
Income Ta x R$ mn 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Income R$ mn 1.8 11.8 25.3 27.2 38.0 13.5
# of medical appointments on telemedicine platforms (000s) Since the start of the Covid-19
600 pandemic, the development of
500 490
telemedicine platforms by listed
300
270 However, we note that this trend
200 220
180 decelerated during 2022, when social
100
60 distancing was completely left
0 behind. We also flag that although
3Q22
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
telemedicine should have its place in
GNDI SULA BRAD HAPV FLRY DASA a normalized world, it may have
already reached peak levels.
Source: Companies, BTG Pactual
Slide 130
Contact
Equity Research – Healthcare & Education
Samuel Alves
samuel.alves@btgpactual.com
Phone: +55 (11) 3383-2450
Yan Cesquim
yan.cesquim@btgpactual.com
Phone: +55 (11) 3383-2734
Pedro Lima
pedro-o.lima@btgpactual.com
Phone: +55 (11) 3383-1133
131
Statement of risk
Contact
132