Fourteenth Annual IIE/Rockwell Automation Simulation Contest

Evacuating Rockwell Shores and St. Rocks Barrier Island

Introduction

Your team has just been hired by the City of Rockwell Shores and St. Rocks Barrier
Island to evaluate and provide recommendations for the evacuation process during an
emergency event. The community is most susceptible to violent hurricanes. The current
evacuation procedures have not changed in the last decade and there is national concern
that areas are not equipped to handle a complete evacuation during an emergency.

Rockwell Shores and St. Rocks Barrier Island are popular resort towns on the coast of a
major ocean. The island, originally settled in the 1920’s, was privately held by the St.
Rock’s family until the late Eudoxia Arena St. Rocks passed away in 1953 leaving the
island to the community of Rockwell Shores. At the time, the only access to the island
was via ferry or the private airstrip for the St. Rocks family. In 1956 the community of
Rockwell Shores was able to gain funding from the state and federal government to build
a bridge to the island and this bridge, completed in 1959, is the key access to the island.

Today Rockwell Shores and St. Rocks Island are popular vacation spots for couples and
families. There is everything from simple beach bungalows to luxurious resort hotels for
travelers. The economy is tourist-based and everything is done to make certain that
visitors enjoy their stay on the island enough to return. The commercial success of the
island has spurred more growth and has attracted more visitors. A major concern is that
the island bridge, the only access point to the mainland, is not sufficient for a full
evacuation during peak times. There is also discussion on the overall capacity of the
highway system should a major evacuation be necessary. The federal government is also
mandating that sufficient shelter capacity exists to manage evacuees.

Rockwell Shores and St. Rocks Barrier Island Background

Hurricanes are the primary reason for evacuating the area. With an elevation of 10ft,
even a level one hurricane can create storm surges that will cover St. Rock’s Island
entirely. The elevation of Rockwell Shores ranges from 10ft – 17ft. Needless to say, a
strong storm will require inhabitants to evacuate to Zone 2 for guaranteed safety. Figure
1, provides an overview of the island and Rockwell Shores.
 Rockwell Zone 2
High Route 79
Rockwell
School Community
Center
Rockwell
Rockets
Arena

Zone 1

Highway 17

Summerset Rd
Greenview Rd
Interstate 12 Mangrove Drive

Rockwell Shores

Highway 1

Key
Stop Signs

Bus lot
Ocean Drive
Shelter
Ocean
St. Rocks Barrier Island On/Off Ramps
3 miles

Figure 1: Rockwell Shores and St. Rocks Barrier Island

St. Rocks Barrier Island
On the island, there are approximately 2,567 full time residents, and during the vacation
season there can be as few as 3,500 but as many as 50,000 additional persons staying on
the island.

The island is approximately 18 miles long with Ocean Drive being the main
thoroughfare. Ocean Drive is a 2 lane road (one way in each direction). There is one
direct access point to the mainland, a two lane bridge. The only other method of
accessing the island is via a ferry that is unavailable during inclement weather.

St. Rocks has two commercial centers, one at the access point with the mainland and
another at the far end of the island. There are 3 large intersections on the island identified
on the map. Stop signs create 4-way stops at these intersections. Current evacuation
methods direct all traffic to these key intersections. Ocean Drive can only be accessed
via the side roads to these intersections. Assume even population across the island. The
speed limit on Ocean Drive is 25 mph.

The Ocean Drive bridge access point opens directly onto the town of Rockwell Shores at
the intersection of Highway 1 and Mangrove drive (the continuation of Ocean Drive on
the mainland). Keep in mind that the evacuation of St. Rocks means that the population
of Rockwell Shores will be evacuating as well. Island residents will queue up waiting for
access to the highway as they evacuate.
Rockwell Shores
Rockwell Shores has 40,000 full time residents and can see a 50% increase during peak
vacation times.

The city center of Rockwell Shores is located just west of Mangrove drive. About 60%
of the population resides here and 20% stay along the shore. Vacationers primarily
occupy the hotels and resorts along the beach. The city limits of Rockwell Shores do not
extend north of Zone 1. Evacuation routes out of town will primarily be via the major
roads shown on the map. On and off ramps are located at each major road intersection.
The average speed limit on the major roads is noted in the table below. Vehicles will
attempt to travel at speeds within 10% of the speed limit. Road congestion will reduce
the average speed of the vehicle. Once out of Zone 1, Rockwell Shores is no longer
accountable.
Road Name Speed Limit (mph)
Greenview Rd 50
Interstate 12 45
Mangrove Drive 35
Sommerset Rd 45
Highway 1 45
Highway 17 65
Route 79 65
Ocean Drive 25
Table 1: Road and Speed Limits
The population of Rockwell Shores has been rising and updates to infrastructure are
being considered. Currently all major roads are single lanes.

Current Evacuation Procedures

The process by which locals and tourists evacuate the areas during a pending storm is
variable. Depending on the level of the anticipated storm, the time until the storm’s
arrival and access to transportation, people will evacuate at different rates. Evacuees
without access to cars will need to wait until buses arrive to take them to safety. Typical
evacuation patterns can be seen in Table 2.

Time Before Hurricane Hits (hrs) % of Occupants Prepared to Access Roads

30-36 7%
25-30 13%
20-25 17%
15-20 26%
10-15 18%
5-10 11%
4-5 7%
3-4 1%
2-3 0%
1-2 0%
0-1 0%
Table 2: Evacuation Patterns
 Type of Occupant % of Population
St. Rocks Island Rockwell Shores
Occupant with access to 95% 92%
personal transportation
Occupant without access to 5% 8%
personal transportation
Table 3: Vehicle Concentration
<1% of occupants on St. Rocks Island will not try to evacuate.
7% - 10% of occupants on Rockwell Shores will not try to evacuate.

There are two types of vehicles. Cars, which are 13 ft long and vans are 17 ft long. Only
20% of drivers use vans and remaining can be assumed to drive cars. All drivers leave at
least 4ft between cars on the road. The number of passengers in each car is estimated to
be a triangular distribution with 1 as the minimum number, 6 as the maximum and a most
likely number of 4. The number of passengers in each van is estimated to be a triangular
distribution with 1 as the minimum number, 12 as the maximum and a most likely
number of 5. There are 35 total buses and 25 shuttles. Buses can hold a maximum of 40
people and are 41 ft long. Shuttles can hold a maximum of 25 people and are 30 ft long.

If a hurricane level 3 or greater is anticipated, Rockwell Shores and the island will call
for a mandatory evacuation.

During a mandatory evacuation:

1. Sirens will sound throughout the city and island. Radio and television will also
provide evacuation announcements and procedures. This will typically occur 12-24
hours before the hurricane will hit based on advanced technology detection.
2. Next, emergency personnel will drive through each street area alerting residents.
3. Island residents and visitors with transportation means will head towards the Ocean
Drive bridge to evacuate the island. Rockwell Shores residents and visitors will head
to the nearest major expressway to get to Zone 2.
4. On the island, residents and visitors without transportation will be evacuated by
trained emergency drivers via buses. Buses will transport people to one of several
shelters. Buses will return to the island to pick up additional evacuees up to 6 hours
before the storm is predicted to hit.
a. School buses and shuttles from Rockwell Shores will be used to transport
people off the island. The map indicates the key locations of available buses
and shuttles. Assume there are trained personnel qualified to drive each
available bus. 10% of the buses and shuttles from Rockwell Shores are
currently allocated to evacuating the island. Typically, each bus is assigned to
a particular area to search for stranded persons. The process for this pick up is
not very well defined.
5. Currently there are 3 shelters located in the safety Zone 2. Each shelter has a unique
capacity. Buses will drop off evacuees at one of the 3 shelters before returning to the
city to pick up additional evacuees. People with cars will go to a shelter, find a hotel,
or continue to drive to the home of friends and/or family. Those individuals who put
off evacuating until 10 hours prior to landfall of the hurricane are more likely to
 require shelter and any individuals still in Zone 1 two hours prior to landfall will have
no other options but to report to the shelters. Evacuees without transportation take
priority at shelters and those with transportation may have to move to another shelter
or travel further inland to search for additional shelter. Each shelter is staffed by
emergency personnel. Adequate staffing is estimated to be 1 caregiver for every 125
evacuees.

Shelter Capacity
Rockwell Rockets Arena 15,000
Rockwell High School 3,000
Rockwell Community Center 750
Table 4: Shelter Capacity
Scenarios

The goal of the project is to design the most effective method of evacuating the St. Rocks
Barrier Island in the least amount of time.

As a part of the analysis, the town wants to better understand if current evacuation
processes are adequate and if not, how they should budget for improvements. The
following questions should be considered.

1. How many personnel would make for an effective evacuation? This includes staffing
of the shelters, bus and shuttle crews, and personnel to direct traffic as well as police
to attend to potential emergencies.
2. Should the city purchase and maintain additional buses for evacuation purposes?
3. What infrastructure improvements to the community should be changed?
4. Are there any recommendations for intersection management on the island?
5. Would implementing formal evacuation routes be effective?
6. Should additional shelter capacity be made available? What additional capacity and
where should the shelters be located?
7. Include a price estimate for changes and manpower during an evacuation in your
proposal to the city.

Costing:
Assume all emergency shelter personnel are utilized, at a rate of $15 /hour, bus
drivers are utilized at a rate of $20/hr and police are utilized at a rate of $45/hr.
The estimated cost to add another 2 lane bridge from the island to the mainland is
$200 - $250 million.
Adding lanes to major roads can cost anywhere from $100,000 - $150,000 per mile.
Buses cost $50,000 and will require maintenance of $1000 per year.