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    DETERMINISTIC

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    ShimikuWong
    This document contains two questions regarding simulation modeling. Question 1 involves simulating patient appointments at a dentist's office based on probabilities of arrival times and appointment durations. It asks if the dentist can make a 12:15pm flight based on the simulation. Question 2 involves simulating poster sales at football games based on weather and demand probabilities, and calculating total profits if 2500 posters are printed over 10 games.

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    DETERMINISTIC

    Uploaded by

    ShimikuWong
    38 views3 pages
    This document contains two questions regarding simulation modeling. Question 1 involves simulating patient appointments at a dentist's office based on probabilities of arrival times and appointment durations. It asks if the dentist can make a 12:15pm flight based on the simulation. Question 2 involves simulating poster sales at football games based on weather and demand probabilities, and calculating total profits if 2500 posters are printed over 10 games.

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    This document contains two questions regarding simulation modeling. Question 1 involves simulating patient appointments at a dentist's office based on probabilities of arrival times and appointment durations. It asks if the dentist can make a 12:15pm flight based on the simulation. Question 2 involves simulating poster sales at football games based on weather and demand probabilities, and calculating total profits if 2500 posters are printed over 10 games.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    38 views3 pages

    DETERMINISTIC

    Uploaded by

    ShimikuWong
    This document contains two questions regarding simulation modeling. Question 1 involves simulating patient appointments at a dentist's office based on probabilities of arrival times and appointment durations. It asks if the dentist can make a 12:15pm flight based on the simulation. Question 2 involves simulating poster sales at football games based on weather and demand probabilities, and calculating total profits if 2500 posters are printed over 10 games.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 3

    A221 SQQP2023 DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC DECISION MODELLING

    INDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENT

    QUESTION 1

    Dr. Lim, the dentist, attempts to schedule appointments so that patients do not have to wait beyond
    their appointment time. His February 20th schedule is shown as below:
    Table 1: Patients Appointment time and expected time needed

    Patient Appointment time (a.m) Expected time needed


    Gary 9.30 15
    Poon 9.45 20
    Karen 10.15 15
    Teh 10.30 10
    Felisa 10.45 30
    Darshini 11.15 15
    Norlina 11.30 20
    Abdul 11.45 15

    Unfortunately, not every patient arrives exactly on schedule, and expected times to examine patients
    are as shown in Table 1. However, some examinations take longer than expected, and some take less
    time. Dr. Lim’s experience dictates the following:

    (a) 20% of the patients will be 20 minutes early.


    (b) 10% of the patients will be 10 minutes early.
    (c) 40% of the patients will be on time.
    (d) 25% of the patients will be 10 minutes late.
    (e) 5% of the patients will be 20 minutes late.

    He further estimates that:

    (a) 15% of the time he will finish in 20% less time than expected.
    (b) 50% of the time he will finish in the expected time.
    (c) 25% of the time he will finish in 20% more time than expected.
    (d) 10% of the time he will finish in 40% more time than expected

    Dr. Lim must leave at 12.15 p.m. on February 20th, to catch a flight to a dental convention in another
    city. Assuming that he is ready to start his workday at 9.30 a.m. and that patients are treated in order
    of their scheduled appointments, will he be able to make the flight? Justify your answer by developing
    a Monte Carlo Simulation model for the above problem.
    QUESTION 2

    The ticket sales for every football game for the past eight years at Stadium Darul Aman have been sold
    out. The revenues from ticket sales are significant, but the sales of food, beverages and souvenirs have
    contributed greatly to the overall profitability. One particular souvenir is the poster for each football
    game. The number of posters sold at each game is described by the following probability distribution:
    Table 2 The number of posters sold and its probability

    Number (in 100s) of Posters Sold Probability


    23 0.15
    24 0.22
    25 0.24
    26 0.21
    27 0.18

    Each poster costs RM0.80 to produce and sells for RM2.00. Any posters that are not sold are donated
    to a recycling center and do not produce any revenue.

    (a) Simulate the sales of posters at 10 football games. Begin at the top of the last column in the
    random number table.
    (b) Suppose the sale of a poster in Table 2 only applies to days when the weather is good. When
    poor weather occurs on the day of a football game, the crowd is only half of its capacity. When
    this occurs, the total sales are given in Table 3:
    Table 3 The number of posters sold and its probability

    Number (in 100s) of Posters Sold Probability


    12 0.25
    13 0.24
    14 0.19
    15 0.17
    16 0.15

    Simulate the demand for posters at 10 games in which the weather is poor. Begin at the top
    of column 5 in the random number table.
    (c) If the forecast is for a 20% chance of poor weather, simulate the weather for 10 games with
    this forecast. Begin at the top of column 4 in the random number table.
    (d) Suppose there is a 20% chance of poor weather, and the stadium has decided to print 2500
    posters. Simulate the total profits that would be achieved for 10 football games. Use the first
    number of the random table and last row of the random table.
    RANDOM NUMBER TABLE

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