"OFF-GRID WIND POWER SYSTEMS: PLANNING AND DECISION MAKING"

Dissertation in partial fulfillment of the course

WIND POWER - BACHELOR THESIS

IN WIND POWER PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Uppsala University
Department of Earth Sciences, Campus Gotland

Musadag El Zein

12-October-2019
 Dissertation in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of

WIND POWER - BACHELOR THESIS IN

WIND POWER PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Uppsala University
Department of Earth Sciences, Campus Gotland

Approved by:

Supervisor, "JENS SORENSEN"

Examiner, "OLA ERIKSSON"

12-October-2019
 iii

ABSTRACT

There are definitely many reasons for choosing off-grid wind power systems.
Few key ones involve the positive enhancement of societies, economies and natural
environments. From a project developers’ perspective these systems provide a large
potential market, which can cover a wide range of applications with relatively reasonable
costs. In spite of this, many challenges may interfere with the diffusion and the success
of such systems.
In the report we discuss the various factors affecting the implementation of off-
grid wind power systems and demonstrate some of the challenges project developers
may be facing during the planning stage. Some of these include the acceptance of
stakeholders (local inhabitants in particular) and the securing of the financing of the
projects. Another noted challenge lying outside the control of project developers was
found to be the absence of encouraging policies and incentives.
As a conclusion the thesis provides a set of self-interpreted recommendations
along with a flow chart. The concluded summary indicates some key factors that project
developers should be aware of and careful when dealing with, these which include: The
choice of the site, verification of projects’ economics along with the securing of a
convenient finance. The recommendations also point out the great advantage in having
local developers as these tend to be more capable in building relations with the local
citizens and politicians.

Keywords: Off-grid systems, Off-grid wind power system, Stakeholders, Project

Developer.
 iv

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

First and foremost I am very grateful to GOD THE AL MIGHTY for giving me
the health, strength and the environment to be able to complete this study.
Deepest gratitude and appreciation to my supervisor Prof. Jens Sørensen who
guided me and offered me his invaluable advice from day one. Completion of this work
would have been extremely difficult without his support. Special thanks too, to the
examiner committee for their constructive feedback.
I would also like to thank all member staff in charge of and working within the
wind power project management programme for being so helpful, professional and yet
easily accessible at all times.
I must express my gratitude to my wife who stood beside me and encouraged me
throughout this process. To my brothers and sisters abroad and my in-laws here in
Sweden sincere thanks for your continuous support and prayers.
To my dear parents to whom I am fully indebted. I simply cannot thank you
enough. Special thanks too to my father for proof reading the document and providing
his invaluable advice and expertise in academic writing.
Finally, I would like to dedicate this thesis to my dear aunt Buthaina El Baghir
who passed away last year. With her great sense of humor and care for the welfare of
others, she will surely be missed. May the blessings of GOD be upon her and my late
grandparents (Sheikh El Zein, Haja Amna bint El Amin, Mama Zeinab and Dr. El
Baghir Ibrahim).
Last but not least, sincere gratitude to all the brave men and women who made a
positive change in my native country Sudan.

Thank You
 v

NOMENCLATURE

SDG Sustainable Development Goals

HOMER Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables
O&M Operation and Maintenance
IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency
AC Alternating Current
DC Direct Current
HRES Hybrid Renewable Energy System
IEC International Electrotechnical Commission
PV Photovoltaic
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Contents
ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................... iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .............................................................................................. iv
NOMENCLATURE ........................................................................................................... v
LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... ix
LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. x
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................ 1
1.1 Off-Grid systems and what it entails? ...................................................................... 2
1.2 Off-Grid renewable energy systems ......................................................................... 5
1.4 Why Explore Off-Grid Wind Power System? .......................................................... 6
1.5 Aim of the research .................................................................................................. 7
1.6 Research Questions .................................................................................................. 7
1.7 Research method and limitations ............................................................................. 8
CHAPTER 2. BACKGROUND .................................................................................. 8
2.1 Evolvement of Off-Grid Wind Power Systems ........................................................ 8
2.2 Insight into Wind power’s Off-Grid technology .................................................... 11
2.2.1 Stand-alone systems ........................................................................................ 11
2.2.2 Isolated local Grid systems ............................................................................. 14
CHAPTER 3. WHY ADOPT OFF-GRID WIND POWER SYSTEMS ................... 14
3.1 From a project developer’s perspective: ................................................................ 15
3.2 From an Energy perspective:.................................................................................. 16
3.3 From a Sustainable Development perspective: ...................................................... 17
CHAPTER 4. INFLUENCING FACTORS & OPTIMUM CIRCUMSTANCES ... 18
4.1 Site selection: ......................................................................................................... 19
4.1.1 Availability of a Good wind resource location ............................................... 19
4.1.2 Weather conditions sufficient sound data ....................................................... 20
4.1.3 An appropriate Topography ............................................................................ 20
4.1.4 A low Surface roughness................................................................................. 21
4.1.5 Low level Obstacles ........................................................................................ 21
4.1.6 Logistics, permission processes and stakeholder’s acceptance ....................... 22
 vii

4.2 Load specifics ......................................................................................................... 23

4.3 (Sizing): Type, quantity and cost of equipment and operation .............................. 23
4.3.1 Varying of demand load .................................................................................. 23
4.3.2 Variation in resource availability .................................................................... 24
4.3.3 Turbine characteristics .................................................................................... 24
4.3.4 Size of storage ................................................................................................. 24
4.3.5 Interdependency between system design variables ......................................... 24
4.4 Financing: ............................................................................................................... 25
4.5 Approach: ............................................................................................................... 25
CHAPTER 5. HOW TO APPROACH THE INFLUENCING FACTORS .............. 25
5.1 Site selection .......................................................................................................... 26
5.1.1 Site climate ...................................................................................................... 26
5.1.2 Site physical conditions ................................................................................... 27
5.2 Stakeholders’ acceptance, Logistics & Permission processes................................ 28
5.2.1 Stakeholders’ acceptance ................................................................................ 28
5.2.2 Logistics and Permission processes ................................................................ 29
5.3 Load specifics ......................................................................................................... 30
5.4 (Sizing): Type and quantity of equipment .............................................................. 32
5.4.1 HOMER (Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables)................... 32
5.4.2 Equipment properties ...................................................................................... 35
5.5 Economics of the project ........................................................................................ 38
5.5.1 Investment costs .............................................................................................. 38
5.5.2 Operation and Maintenance (O&M) costs ...................................................... 39
5.5.3 Capital costs .................................................................................................... 40
5.5.4 Revenues and economic predictions ............................................................... 40
5.5.5 Financing and incentives: ................................................................................ 41
CHAPTER 6. CONDUCTED STUDIES & SURVEYS ........................................... 43
6.1 Remote Alaska communities and wind-diesel hybrid systems .............................. 43
6.2 Canadian remote wind diesel hybrid systems from a developer perspective ........ 43
6.3 German onshore wind power market from a developer perspective ...................... 44
6.4 Southern and East Africa (EEP Africa) study on mini-grid technologies .............. 45
CHAPTER 7. DISCUSSION ..................................................................................... 46
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7.1 Summary flow chart ............................................................................................... 48

7.2 Challenges .............................................................................................................. 50
CHAPTER 8. RECOMMENDATIONS & CONCLUDING REMARKS ................ 51
8.1 Recommendations .................................................................................................. 51
8.2 Concluding Remarks .............................................................................................. 52
CHAPTER 9. REFERENCES .................................................................................. 54
 ix

LIST OF FIGURES
Page
Figure 1 Categorization of off-grid systems ............................................................ 4
Figure 2 Year 2030 Population gaining access predictions ..................................... 9
Figure 3 Isolated village power system schematic .................................................. 12
Figure 4 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals ........................................ 16
Figure 5 Relation between wind speed and wind power ......................................... 19
Figure 6 Data-driven pyramid ................................................................................. 26
Figure 7 Obstruction of the wind by a building or a tree ........................................ 27
Figure 8 Load profiles (Residential, Commercial & Industrial) .............................. 30
Figure 9 Overall optimization results (HOMER) ...................................................... 33
Figure 10 Power curve example ................................................................................ 37
Figure 11 Summary Flowchart and Challenges ........................................................ 49
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LIST OF TABLES
Page
Table 1 Grid connected and off-grid systems overview......................................... 3
Table 2 Off-grid systems sub categories ................................................................ 4
Table 3 Off-grid applications proposed categorization .......................................... 5
Table 4 Roughness classes ..................................................................................... 20
Table 5 Decision and Sensitivity variable examples .............................................. 38
Table 6 Different turbine models ........................................................................... 35
Table 7 Wind turbines IEC classes......................................................................... 36
 1

CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION

There is no doubt that wind power has become a mainstream energy technology. Not
only does the technology provide a source for electricity but moreover it represents the
potential for a greener development pathway (Lena, N., & Per Dannemand, A., 2012,
p.2).

Although the first modern electricity generating wind turbines were developed back in
the 1880’s, it was not until the 1970’s when wind turbines were considered as a strong
credible energy source (Lena, N., & Per Dannemand, A., 2012, p.2). Pioneering
countries at the time, mainly Denmark, the US, Germany, the Netherlands, Great Britain
and Sweden, took two different approaches to the development of the technology.
Whereas countries like Sweden, Germany and the UK focused more on large megawatt
scale turbines; other countries, namely the US, Denmark and the Netherlands
concentrated their Research and Development programmes on smaller turbines for
specific markets (Lena, N., & Per Dannemand, A., 2012, p.2).

In the 1990’s, resources mobilized for wind power in Denmark, Germany and Spain
supported various avenues, which mainly involved: knowledge development, technology
diffusion and nonetheless market formation (Lena, N., & Per Dannemand, A., 2012,
p.4). This support resulted in major improvements within the industry. Few key
improvements entailed:

 Turbine availability reaching up to 98%

 Large increase in turbines’ efficiency
 Reduction in turbines’ noise
 Better management on impacts related to grid’s stability during integration.
(Lena, N., & Per Dannemand, A., 2012, p.4).

Although wind turbines’ development experienced cost reductions during the 1980’s and
90’s, it has in fact and in recent years seen an increase in prices. Main attributes for the
increase routed from the rapid growing demand for the technology on the world market.
Moreover, increase in world prices of industrial commodities such as copper and steel is
also believed to have played a role in the hike of turbine costs. (Lena, N., & Per
Dannemand, A., 2012, p.5).

Before further discussions are made on the aim of the thesis and why the choice has been
laid on “Off-Grid” wind power systems, it is rather important that the term “off-Grid”
and any corresponding terms are defined and explained in more detail.
 2

1.1 Off-Grid systems and what it entails?

Although the term “Off-Grid” system is a very broad one yet it simply suggests an
independent system where electricity is not provided through main grids or by a main
power infrastructure. In other words it is a system which has a semi-autonomous
capability to satisfy electricity demand through local power generation. (IRENA, 2015,
p.5)

Having accepting this broad term as is, we may realize that “Off-Grid” systems are not a
new phenomenon or uncommon. Today we have many off-grid systems represented by
the millions of diesel and gasoline generators worldwide (IRENA, 2015, p.7). According
to above definition, these systems provide electricity where there is no grid or where the
existing grid is unreliable, hence these sources of energy belong to the “Off-Grid”
category so to speak.

Unlike centralized grids which are typically larger in size (ranging from several hundred
megawatts to even a thousand gigawatt) and in which may have a general central
capacities that cover countries if not even continents; off-grid systems in contrast tend to
be smaller in size. (IRENA, 2015, p.5)

There are a number of indicators that are used to separate off-grid systems from grid
systems. Few of these indicators include generation capacity, transmission voltage
levels, AC versus DC systems along with the geographical distances between the
generator and consumers. An overview of how grid connected systems typically differ
from off-grid systems is provided in table 1 below. Looking at the table, it is important
to understand that mini-grid systems (sometimes referred to as micro-grids or isolated
grids) are ultimately part of off-grid systems; which can at some point be connected to
larger grids and hence be transformed into a Grid system.
 3

Minigrid <50 Stand-alone

Grid connected MW/own systems/Individual Productive use
consumption electrification systems
> 1GW Gas-fired CHP
Gas -1500 GW
systems
5-10 GW
Diesel 50 000 - 100 000
systems
Small < 10 MW
Large >10MW
100 000 - 150 000 Micro-hydro 0.1-1 MW
Hydro 10 000 - 50 000 systems
systems Pico-hydro < 0.1 MW
>1000 GW
75 GW
Diesel wind hybrid Small wind turbines
310 GW
Wind < 1000 village/mining 0-250 kW Wind pumps > 500 000
250 000 turbines
systems 806 000 turbines
50 GW/0.5 min large Solar lighting 5 min; Teleom
systems Diesel PV hybrid towers 10 000; Solar water
SHS < 1kW pumps; PV
Solar PV > 50 kW < 10 000 village Fridges/refrigeration; Street
5-10 min systems
80 GW/10-20 min rooftop systems lighting systems; Traffic signs;
systems 1-50 kW Phone recharging stations
< 100 kW biogas plants
> 1 million biogas
Livestock farms
Biogas/biodiesel 14 GW systems
Back-up biodiesel
to power 30 000 - 40 000 systems Gasification/rice husk
generators
etc
1000-2000 systems
20 GW pulp, sugar/ethanol
Biomass 1000-2000 systems, 20-30 GW
steam cycles /CH 1000-2000
cogeneration systems 5-10 GW cofiring coal
plant 250-500 systems
Table 1: An overview of grid connected and off-grid systems (IRENA, 2015, p.6).

According to both formal definitions and case studies, Off-grid systems can be divided
into different categories based on their size, capability and complexity. Two main bodies
that form off-grid systems involve Stand-alone systems and Isolated local grid systems.
While stand-alone systems comprise of AC or DC generation and storage, isolated grid
systems are categorized into full AC grids, (i.e. AC/DC grids supplying either AC or DC
power (Bandyopadhyay, S., and Roy, A., 2019, p.8)

Table 2 and Figure 1 below provide an outline to the common understanding and
categorization of off-grid systems.
 4

Size (kW) Capability Complexity

Stand-alone
0 - 0.1
systems

Pico-grid 0-1 *Single Controller

*Both grid-tied and remote

*Singe voltage
systems
*Single price
*Preference for DC systems
Nano-grid 0-5 *Controllers negotiate with
*Typically serving single
other across gateways to buy
building or Single load
or self power
*Single administrator
*Manage local energy supply
and demand
*Provide variety of voltages
*Incorporate generation
Micro-grid 5 - 100 *Provide variety of quality
*Varying pricing possible
and reliability options
*Optimise multiple output
energy systems

*Local generation satisfying

Mini-grid 0 - 100 000 local demand *Transmission *Interconnected customers
limited to 11 kV

Table 2: Off-grid systems sub categories (IRENA, 2015, p.11).

Figure 1. Categorization of off-grid systems (Bandyopadhyay, S., and Roy, A., 2019,
p.8).
 5

1.2 Off-Grid renewable energy systems

In view of this thesis and because our main focus lies on off-grid Wind power systems
which is an Off-grid renewable energy system type, it is important too that we
understand what this off-grid sub category entails.
There are many different kinds of off-grid renewable energy systems. These may range,
from single-home rooftop PVs to solar lanterns, to PV street lighting and telecom
towers, small wind turbines wind pumping systems to off-grid fridges/refrigeration
systems. (IRENA, 2015, p.7)
Unlike diesel and gasoline generators, which as earlier mentioned may well represent
“Off-Grid energy” systems, “Off-Grid Renewable energy” systems however face
challenges in their diffusion and consequently as a result represent a small percentage of
the total installed renewable power. (IRENA, 2015, p.23). Details of challenges facing
off-grid wind power systems shall be discussed in later chapters.
According to various national and international sources, different off-grid renewable
energy systems are categorized by the basis of their applications, users and system
components. Table 3 below summarizes the proposed categorization through certain
examples.

Stand-alone Grids
DC AC AC/DC AC
AC Solar home
systems;
Solar lighting DC Solar home Nano-grid, Micro-grid,
Systems single- Full-grid
kits systems Pico-grid Mini-grid
facilityAC
systems
Off-grid
Lighting
Lighting and Lighting and appliances,
Application Lighting all uses all uses
appliances appliances emergency
power
Residential; Residential; Community; Community; Community;
User
Community Community Commercial Commercial Commercial
Generation,
storage, lighting,
Generation Generation regular AC Generation + Generation +
Generation +
Key storage, storage, DC appliances, three phase three phase
single phase
component lighting, cell special Building wiring distribution + distribution +
incl but no distribution
charger appliances controller transmission
distribution
system
Table 3: Proposed categorization of off-grid applications (IRENA, 2015, p.9)
 6

Although there may be several means of categorizing the various systems discussed
earlier whether these be “off-grid” systems altogether or even more specifically “off-
grid renewable energy” systems as shown above; however what is more important from
a project developer’s perspective lies in understanding the various characteristics of
these systems and recognizing how and under what conditions and environments these
can be best used.

Having so far, briefly discussed what off-grid systems involve and what main off-grid
renewable systems may constitute of; more details concerning off-grid wind power
systems and the aim of this thesis shall be furnished in the coming sections.

1.4 Why Explore Off-Grid Wind Power System?

One may question the choice behind wanting to explore off-Grid wind power systems
over the larger market rival i.e. On-Grid/Grid connected Wind power systems. Several
reasons for the choice route from:

 The growing worldwide demand for cleaner energy particularly in developing

countries where weak transmission infrastructures exist and absence of
centralized utility grids is a common issue (Distributed Wind Energy
Association, 2019). An area where off-grid wind power systems can certainly
positively contribute to.

 The large opportunity for off-grid renewable energy systems in general and off-
grid wind power systems in particular to provide cost-effective and beneficial
solutions in many areas of the energy market (e.g. islands, rural areas etc.).
According to IRENA 2015, (Distributed Wind Energy Association, 2019), an
estimated 1.16 billion people (17% of the world’s population at the time) had no
access to electricity.

 The diversity of applications available through Off-grid (hybrid) wind power

systems is broad. The system can power homes, businesses, farms, ranches,
logging camps and many other facilities (Shea.K., and Howard, B.C., 2011,
p.35).

 Enhancing self-resilience especially in remote vulnerable areas and

communities. More than Grid connected wind power systems, off-grid wind
power systems along with other off-grid renewable energy systems, have greater
opportunities in supporting the independence of end-users.

 Less complications at many occasions: The possibility of having a reliable

source of energy without having to go through the technical complications of
grid connected systems (e.g. compliance with the power quality of the local grid,
complex designs, etc)
 7

 Underestimation of Off-grid wind power systems: With the penetration levels

of wind power’s integration into other power systems seeing very fast expansion
and growth over the last few years (Wu,Q., Xu, Z., & Østergaard, J., 2010, p.1)
industries may have unintentionally underestimated the off-grid’s role and
significance in many crucial avenues. Exploring and highlighting Off-grid’s
contribution and influence towards present alarming issues such as climate
change, sustainable development and shortages in energy worldwide altogether,
shall certainly help identify both pros and cons of the system and inevitably
uncover any existing barriers causing delays in the system’s diffusion.

 Limited use of off-grid wind power systems relative to the available potential
and abundance of the energy source (i.e. wind) in most parts of the world.
In fact small scale hybrid solutions and mini-grids within wind power does not
have many strong actors in business and is often not seen as an option by the
traditional actors (e.g. the utilities) (SIDA/LIFE ITP 277 PROGRAM REPORT,
2016, p.45).

 The availability of successful experiences around the world both in strong and
weak economy states represented by various applications and magnitude.

1.5 Aim of the research

The basic aim of the research lies in identifying the present magnitude of off-grid wind
power systems worldwide and exploring the best possible means in planning for these
from a developer’s perspective. Practical steps in which project developers need to be
aware of and vigilant with, shall represent the core of the thesis. A more comprehensive
set of guidelines and recommendations shall be concluded from the process. Moreover
and in the course of the process, the significance of such systems with respect to
sustainable development, climate change and energy altogether shall also be briefly
discussed and highlighted.

Accordingly and with the help of findings yet to be concluded in the coming chapters,
the research questions presented hereunder shall be addressed.

1.6 Research Questions

Main research questions comprise of the following:

 Why implement Off-grid Wind Power Systems and how can this positively
contribute to humans and nature. This shall be looked into mainly from a project
developer’s perspective and nevertheless from both an energy and a socio-
environmental prospect.
 8

 Which key elements and factors project developers need to know during the
planning of Off-grid wind power systems. Moreover, how can these key elements
be identified and verified.

 What are the best practices to follow during the planning process

Answering above set of questions shall conclude to a so called project developer’s

“recipe” of how off-grid wind power systems can be tackled in terms of project
planning.

1.7 Research method and limitations

The research shall primarily be based on secondary data. The secondary data shall
mainly consist of but not be limited to:

 Organizations’ data such as the UN, IRENA

 Case studies and reports
 Scientific peer reviewed articles

The means of approaching the above mentioned research questions shall be through
identifying the role of off-grid wind power systems in societies, energy sectors and the
environment. To simplify the study, and due to limitations in both time and resources,
only one carefully chosen system shall represent the Off-grid wind power systems.
Moreover and in order to address how and under what circumstances these systems may
be best implemented, key steps surrounding the project management planning shall be
explored. Once identified, these shall help determine and create a set of guidelines and
possible recommendations that project developers may follow with regards to planning
of off-grid wind power systems.

CHAPTER 2. BACKGROUND

2.1 Evolvement of Off-Grid Wind Power Systems

Owing to their emission free and environmentally friendly nature, renewable energy
sources and in the past few decades have seen a growing importance and attention in
power generation. Furthermore and due to the energy gap/demand from large
populations living in many remote areas worldwide, off-grid renewable energy systems
(particularly stand-alone hybrid systems) were seen to provide the most appropriate and
cost effective solutions to tackle these energy shortages. (Mamaghani, A.H., et al., 2016,
p.293)
Governments’ policies and technological improvements have also played a huge role
over recent years in making off-grid renewable energy systems a commercially viable
 9

alternative for electrification in remote areas. For instance, incentives such as

community grants, cost sharing incentives, transition and tax incentives were all part of
the Australian’s government policy in support of renewable energies (Mamaghani, A.H.,
et al., 2016, p.293).
Solar and wind energy systems have also become the centre of attention as far as off-grid
renewable energy systems’ is concerned. The use of both these systems became and is
still becoming more economically justifiable and technically feasible particularly in
remote areas. Moreover, the combination and integration of both systems (e.g. Wind/PV
system) have significantly helped to reduce the intermittent nature of both solar and
wind resources In fact this allowed these systems to meet loads. In fact this allowed
these systems to meet loads for extended time periods. (Mamaghani, A.H., et al., 2016,
p.294)

According to predictions made by the World Energy Access Report published by the
International Energy Agency, more than 60% of the population who will be gaining
access to electricity by 2030 will do so through renewables mostly coming from hydro
and solar. The prediction further stated that off-grid systems shall be the source for more
than two-thirds of those who gain access to electricity in rural areas. (Bandyopadhyay,
S., and Roy, A., 2019, p.7)

In Figure 2 below the predicted (year 2030) magnitude of contribution served by the
various different types of energy sources through Grid, Mini-grid and Off-grid systems
is presented. It is indicative that energy sources routing from both solar and hydro
powers dominate the off-grid systems’ predictions (i.e. including Mini-grid systems).
The following solar, hydro and fossil fuels comes wind contribution as the fourth largest
contributor.
 10

Figure 2. Prediction of contributions served by the various different types of energy

sources through Grid, Mini-grid and Off-grid systems by year 2030. (Bandyopadhyay,
S., and Roy, A., 2019, p.7)

Although the above predictions may indicate the relatively low levels of wind-sourced
energies worldwide, other statistics however show how the sector is growing on a steady
pace. According to IRENA (2015, p.21), as of the end of 2012, a cumulative total of
806 000 small wind turbines were installed worldwide, equal to about 0.68 GW of
capacity, resulting in an increase of 18% over the previous year. Accounting for this
progress were countries like China (39% of installed capacity representing 570 000
turbines), the US. (31% with 155 000 countries) and the UK (9.4%). Increased also was
the installed size from 0.66 kW in 2010 to 0.84 kW in 2012 (IRENA, 2015, p.21).

Developing countries and continents too had their share in the growing wind sourced
energy sectors. India for instance installed 1417 wind-driven water pumps between years
2013 and 2014. Africa too had as of 2014 around 400,000 wind-driven water pumping
systems in operation. While some systems use the wind force directly to drive a
 11

mechanical pump others work with electricity as intermediate energy carrier. (IRENA,
2015, p.22)

Not only has off-grid wind power systems grown over the past decades but it also proved
its presence in the West through what is known to be the Independent Power Producers
(IPPs). These represent farmers, economic associations and small limited companies
formed to install and operate one or small groups of wind turbines. Countries like
Denmark and Germany with very large share of wind power in their power systems have
actually most of their turbines owned and operated by the IPPs. In Denmark for instance
there are around 150,000 different owners of wind turbines; many of them being
individual members of wind power cooperatives and ordinary farmers. Not far from
Denmark, neighboring Sweden had also large percentage of their wind power installed
capacity owned by the IPPs (76% as of 2012). (Wizelius, 2015, p.102).

2.2 Insight into Wind power’s Off-Grid technology

As mentioned earlier, there are many reasons for opting off-grid wind power systems.
Taking such choice may not only be beneficial to individuals or remote communities
but may well include large companies or organizations.

From a project developer’s perspective, taking the right and optimum choice is certainly
a challenge. This involves many factors and requires the balance between many
parameters and goals. Nonetheless and in order to investigate the influencing factors that
affect the implementation of the Off-grid system yet to be studied, it is important that the
main components forming the system have to be identified and illustrated. With
reference to the categorization of Off-grid systems, this entails both stand-alone systems
and isolated local grids. In the coming sections, brief descriptions of these shall be
discussed.

2.2.1 Stand-alone systems

Following are few key definitions of systems of interest:

Stand-alone systems are installed directly at the end user’s house without any
distribution networks. Their advantages are affordability in terms of initial investment
and the immediate benefits. The main disadvantage is the limitation in terms of electrical
power, which allows only low load applications to be connected (Mini-grid Policy
Toolkit, 2014, p.14).

Following are few configurations representing this type of system:

- Diesel/Hydro/Solar/Wind
 12

- Hydro/Solar/Wind
- PV/Hydro/Biodiesel/battery
- PV/battery/grid
- PV
- PV/battery
- Wind/hydro.(Martinez Diaz, M., 2017, p.7)

Stand-alone Hybrid Renewable Energy (or Power) Systems are found as the
integration of several generation systems, with at least one renewable (photovoltaic
(PV), wind, diesel, hydrogen, fuel cell), and optional storage system (battery, fuel cell)
(Martinez Diaz, M., 2017, p.4).

In essence and as indicated earlier there are many different types and forms that
represent stand-alone systems. However and due to the limitations of both time and
resources, the Wind/PV/Diesel/Battery type shall be used as the typical example to be
studied in this thesis.

Such choice routes not only from the wide range of different energy sources (i.e. wind,
solar and diesel) but also due to the common availability of these resources in many
parts of the world. Hence by looking at the major components forming
Wind/PV/Diesel/Battery hybrid systems we find:

- Wind turbines:
Being an integral part of the system, wind turbines are becoming important
sources of renewable energy and are used to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and
consequently pollutant emissions. (Mamaghani, A.H., et al., 2016, p.297)

- PV panels:
Photovoltaic system is an interconnection PV module producing direct current
electricity from solar energy. Solar panels are made of individual solar cells,
connected together and usually rated as 12V solar panels. This typically enables
these to charge a 12-V battery. (Mamaghani, A.H., et al., 2016, p.297)

- Diesel Generators:
These have been widely employed along with renewable sources to increase the
reliability of the PV-wind hybrid system.

- Batteries:
Due to the intermittent nature of wind and solar energy, batteries become a
necessary part of the system since these ensure a constant power supply.
 13

- Inverters:
Just like other above components, the inverter also is one key component of the
system as it converts the DC electricity produced by the PV modules into AC
electricity. (Mamaghani, A.H., et al., 2016, p.297)

- Converters:
These devices too, play an important role in accepting DC inputs and generating
these into the desired form optimized for the specific load (Sunpower Electronics
Ltd., 2019).

Ultimately, any chosen stand-alone system configuration with its corresponding

components will be driven by the surrounding circumstances and targeted end-users.
Figure 3. below shows a typical setup of a Wind/PV/Diesel/Battery hybrid system.

Figure 3. Schematic of a typical isolated village power system using a

Wind/PV/Diesel/Battery hybrid system (Bandyopadhyay, S., and Roy, A., 2019, p.39).

The above setup in Figure 3 indicates the connection between each of the subsystems
(e.g. PV arrays, wind turbines, diesel generator) and the individual converters. While the
PV arrays are connected to a DC/DC converter, wind turbines and the diesel generator
are connected to individual rectifiers which convert generated AC power to a common
DC link voltage at the DC bus. Through a charge controller, the DC power available at
the DC bus is supplied to the battery bank. The inverters then convert this input DC
power from the DC bus into AC power as required by the load. (Bandyopadhyay, S., and
Roy, A., 2019, p.39)

With different sources of energy and various power conversions occurring

simultaneously certainly requires a steady and robust means of control. A typical
 14

supervisory control in the form of a Programmable Logic Controller (PLC) is often used
to synchronize these parallel operations. Moreover, tasks such as recording the necessary
parameters of both load currents and voltages from all the renewable generators along
with the batteries and diesel generators feature one key role of the PLC. Such feature
enables the PLC maintain a steady generation of power. (Bandyopadhyay, S., and Roy,
A., 2019, p.39)

2.2.2 Isolated local Grid systems

As previously discussed there are various magnitudes of isolated grids varying typically
between Nano, Pico, Micro and Mini-grids. Yet again and like stand-alone systems it is
the surrounding factors and ways in which the power will be used which will eventually
dictate the size of the grids.

In the following chapter, discussions focused on reasons opting for Off-grid wind power
systems adoption shall be presented.

CHAPTER 3. WHY ADOPT OFF-GRID WIND POWER SYSTEMS

There is no doubt that off-grid renewable power systems altogether including off-grid
wind power systems have played and will continue to play significant positive roles at
many fronts worldwide. Positive effects of adopting such systems have been sensed and
noted on many fronts, namely from an Environmental prospect and within both Energy
and Economy sectors. Surely these important sectors and influences form a strong base
of what project developers strive for when they plan for off-grid wind power systems.
However there is more to it from a project developer’s perspective.

Prior to the furnishing of these reasons, it is important to understand the typical scope of
project developers. The following below points, point out the typical tasks to be
shouldered:

 Plan an optimized wind power plant within the limits of given conditions and
restrictions
 Confirm and specify details of any feasibility study or create one
 Sign land lease contracts with all landowners within the area needed for the wind
project
 Present several different options for the siting of wind turbines and also discuss
practical matters of the construction process, building of access roads, power
lines etc. (Wizelius, 2015, p.170)
 Research loan and grant options and find banks or other investors that offer
interest rates and payback times that the project can afford. (Wizelius, 2015,
p.207)
 15

 Argue for the preferred option but should be sensitive to the opinions that are put
forward
 Obtain the necessary permissions from the local authorities. (Wizelius, 2015,
p.170)

In summary and with the aid of the know-how, good judgment, a constructive dialogue
with all stakeholders, high quality wind data and wind power software, developers strive
to establish the best solutions for their project (Wizelius, 2015, p. 170)

3.1 From a project developer’s perspective:

Plans to adopt off-grid wind power systems using the Wind/PV/Diesel/Battery as a

typical example provides a set of distinct technical benefits that project developers find
significant and essential within any given circumstance. Few of these benefits entail:

 The ability to deliver clean and climate-friendly electricity, often at competitive

prices (Dena German Energy Agency, 2017, p.14) especially since wind energy
is currently the least expensive renewable energy technology (Subrahmanyam,
J.B.V. et.al., 2012, p.178). Thus providing both economic and environmental
benefits to the end users, owners and investors.

 Offering a wide range of applications from a few kW to several MW (Dena

German Energy Agency, 2017, p.14). For instance off-grid 10 kW turbines have
the capacity to supply agricultural operations and small remote villages.
Wind/PV/Diesel/Battery for example is able to supply electricity to a private
house, farm house or a small company or an apartment (Subrahmanyam, J.B.V.
et.al., 2012, p.178). This wide range of possibilities enables project developers to
have larger access to projects and hence larger number of possible customers to
win.

 Wind power plants form the ideal basis for an energy mix together with other
renewable energy power plants, whether for the public grid, for hybrid power
plants or for a mini-grid. (Dena German Energy Agency, 2017, p.14)

 Possibility to generate electricity even at night (depending on the local wind

conditions) thus providing a stable form of power generation throughout the day.
This again provides more possibilities for project developers to meet the needs of
wide range of customers.
Wind/PV/Diesel/Battery for instance suits conditions where wind and sunlight
have seasonal shifts i.e., in summer the daytime is long and sun light is strong
enough, while in winter the days are shorter and there are more clouds, but there
is usually an increased wind resource that can complement the solar resource.
(Subrahmanyam, J.B.V. et.al., 2012, p.178)
 16

 For local developers in developing countries adopting off-grid wind power

systems provides more accepting grounds for communities. Since these are
typically installed at less populous remote sites in desperate need of a reliable
sustainable energy source. Furthermore, even with the existence of reliable
power grids in the vicinity, adopting off-grid power systems may well serve as
an alternative to public utility services should connections to the grid be difficult
to achieve due to complexity in logistics, presence of geographical obstacles,
technical challenges or high endured costs (Zetterman, J., & Kvist, A., 2016,
p.13).

Besides the above basic drivers, project developers may view the significance of
adopting off-grid wind power systems through a wider context. (e.g. from an energy and
a sustainable development perspective). With the world being more aware of the existing
energy gaps across the globe and with sustainable development acknowledged as a
strong path in addressing world’s alarming environmental issues; adoption of renewable
energies and off-grid ones in particular becomes simply a favorable choice not only for
the developers but also for concerned decision makers, clients and nevertheless most
vulnerable regions and communities.

The following subsections shall briefly discuss how the implementation of off-grid
renewable systems in general and off-grid wind power systems in particular have
become of high significance from an energy and a sustainable development perspective.

3.2 From an Energy perspective:

Off-grid renewable energy solutions have emerged as a mainstream option for expanding
access to modern energy services in a timely and environmentally sustainable manner.
According to IRENA (2019, p.12) approximately, one hundred and thirty three million
(133,000,000) were served by off-grid technologies in 2016, representing a global six-
fold expansion since 2011. The expansion according to IRENA, delivered a broad
spectrum of electricity services for households, public services, commercial, and
industrial uses. (IRENA, 2019, p.12)

Off-grid wind power systems represented by small wind turbines are increasingly
becoming an alternative for independent and self-sufficient electricity generation. Great
potential for this is seen particularly in developing and newly industrializing countries
with low electrification rates. (Dena German Energy Agency, 2017, p.31)
 17

3.3 From a Sustainable Development perspective:

Sustainable Development (SD) too is enhanced by the increasing deployment of off-grid

power systems worldwide.

These low-emission, low-risk sustainable energy solutions have helped replace

expensive imported fuels and save fuel being transported over long distances thus
enhancing the environment and human health protection (Dena German Energy Agency,
2017, p.8).

According to IRENA (2017, p.1), large advancements achieved in the past years in terms
of lowering malnutrition, increasing life expectancy and improving access to education.
Clean water and the sanitation worldwide have been attributed to the adoption of off-
grid renewable energy systems. Although and as presented in Figure 4 below, it may be
the case that only one of the total seventeen (17) adopted United Nations Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs) explicitly mentions the importance of having clean and
affordable energy (i.e. SDG No.7). Nonetheless achieving this is central to achieving
many of the SDGs under UN’s Agenda 2030.

Figure 4. United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (IRENA, 2017, p.1)

The use of stand-alone systems and mini grids from renewable energy sources such as
wind power offers not only the opportunity to expand a rather more environmental
 18

friendly source of energy to the rural or urban areas suffering poor energy access, but
furthermore provides solutions to many socio-economic and environmental issues.

For instance, both installation and operation phases of off-grid wind power systems may
contribute in job creation for local communities. This in essence alleviates poverty for
the employed. Moreover and with having this new affordable clean energy in place,
reduced fuel consumption and hence reduced expenditures can be achieved; thus helping
with the inhabitants economic growth altogether. Not to mention that opting for off-grid
wind power systems instead of using diesel generators as a single source of energy also
helps reduce the sources of green house gas (GHG) emissions and thus works in favor of
the battle against climate change.

As indicated above, the choice of off-grid wind power systems by project developers
may be routed from various aspects and drivers. While this being important to
understand, there are however more decisive factors that need to be considered and
studied.
In the following chapter, key details of factors that influence the choice and feasibility of
adopting off-grid wind power systems shall be presented. The chapter reflects the
optimum circumstances in which developers may wish to have to facilitate their
implementation plans.

CHAPTER 4. INFLUENCING FACTORS & OPTIMUM CIRCUMSTANCES

As stated previously, and from a clients’ perspective, considerations to adopt off-grid

wind power systems may well be routed from the idea of seeking a rather cleaner, a
more economical and an environmental friendly source of power. Others which have no
access or do not want to be part of a main grid power network may also seek off-grid
wind power systems to be their main source of power. However and for whichever
reason(s) - from a project developer’s perspective - it is vital to realize that there are
more variables and parameters that need to be verified in order to justify any
considerations for adopting such systems (this implies on both local isolated grids and
stand-alone systems).

Basic important factors such as site location, available potential of the wind resource,
load demands, system component details and their corresponding costs, along with any
possible constraints, all represent some vital information that needs to be carefully
studied prior to any serious planning.

In fact, obtained results from these parameters typically form or set the base of “The
Feasibility Study”. A study which in essence shall conclude as to whether or not the
proposed project is worth implementing or not.
 19

Another factor which is not less important than the above is the choice of the
client/project that project developers may would want to work with/for. Economic
stability of clients provides a good preliminary indication that there would not be any
problems with payments down the line. More to this, such clients, indicate the
sustainability of project’s post the installation phase. Due to the limitations of the thesis,
details of the sort of clients or type of projects that project developers may or may not
wish to target, shall not be discussed further.

The prime focus of the influencing factors discussed hereunder and in the coming
sections shall be from the point of having an existing client and/or a potential project yet
to be studied.

4.1 Site selection:

Proper site selection is very important to both the performance and the durability of the
system and it’s components. There are many parameters and variables which represent
an ideal site for installing the system. The key typical ones in which any project
developer may inevitably study thoroughly and wish for include:

4.1.1 Availability of a Good wind resource location

A good average wind speed, is the single most important element to maximize
the performance of any wind system. It is worth noting that the produced power
is proportional to the cube of the wind speed. Therefore a small increase in
average wind speed results in a large increase in energy output of a wind
generator. For instance an increase in wind speed of 10 % (e.g. 4 to 4.5m/s)
results in roughly a 30% increase in available power. Hence the better the wind
resource is in the projected area, the better the performance of the system.
(Shea.K., and Howard, B.C., 2011, p.132)
Figure 5 below demonstrates the cubic formula relation between wind speed and
power.
 20

6000

5000
Power of wind

4000 The power of the wind P/A

(W/m2)

(W/m2)
3000
Theoretical maximum power
2000 P/A (W/m2)

1000

0
0 5 10 15 20 25

Figure 5. Relation between wind speed and power of the wind (Bandyopadhyay, S., and
Roy, A., 2019, p.39)

4.1.2 Weather conditions sufficient sound data

This is also a very important factor, not only because it provides assessments or
predictions concerning the magnitude or directions of winds throughout the year,
but also because it helps identify the degree of harshness and extreme weather
conditions in the proposed location. In accordance, knowledge of these details
provides some valuable information in how robust the wind turbines should be.
Moreover, project developers may also be able to assess and predict how long the
downtime and maintenance periods can be for the turbines. Logistics during both
installation and operation & maintenance periods too may well be assessed
should the weather conditions be more familiar to the designers and planners.
Furthermore, weather conditions provide invaluable data with regards to the
availability of solar radiation at the site throughout the year. With such info it
becomes simply vital especially if a stand-alone system with PV panels is
considered.

4.1.3 An appropriate Topography

Typically hilly areas maybe better than valleys to install the wind turbine.
However this may not always be the case. High areas may also have their
disadvantages especially when logistics are examined. High land areas may be
awkward to get to and too far away from where power is needed. In addition to
this, there can be areas in these high altitudes where turbulent conditions exist.
These can have detrimental consequences on both, wind turbines and the desired
 21

power outputs (Shea.K., and Howard, B.C., 2011, p.132). Thus the choice of an
appropriate topography to install wind turbines has always been a crucial factor.

4.1.4 A low Surface roughness

Smoother terrains are always favored over rough ones. This is simply because
wind is affected by the friction against the surface. For example winds blowing
from the sea to land will encounter higher turbulences and hence wind speeds
closer to the ground will decrease. (Wizelius, 2015, p.22).

Terrains are classified into different roughness of classes (see Table 4 below).
Classes from zero to four represent the roughness, where open water is classified
as zero and large cities normally hit the highest level of roughness (Wizelius,
2015, p.22). In simple terms terrains with higher roughness levels do tend to have
reduced wind speeds. So from a project developer’s perspective, an ideal
location will be the one which has roughness class of zero or one.

Roughness Character Terrain Obstacles Farms Buildings Forest

class
0 Sea, lakes Open - - - -
water
1 Open landscape, Plain to Only low 0-3 per - -
with sparse smooth vegetation km2
vegetation and hills
buildings
2 Countryside with a Plain to Small woods, Up to 10 Some villages -
mix of open areas, hilly tree-lined roads per km2 and small towns
vegetation and are common
buildings
3 Small towns or Plain to Many woods, Many Multiple villages, Dense
countryside with hilly vegetation and farms small towns or forest (close
many farms, woods tree-lined roads more than suburbs canopy)
and obstacles 10 per
km2
4 Large cities or Plain to - - Large cities Forest
forests hilly (Open
canopy)
Table 4. Roughness classes. (Wizelius, 2015, p.22).

4.1.5 Low level Obstacles

Obstacles such as buildings, trees and or any high structures affect the wind.
These can interrupt the laminar flow of the air, hence creating whirls and eddies
that reduce wind speeds (Wizelius, 2015, p.22). It is therefore quite important to
 22

have the wind turbines installed as further as possible from any existing obstacle
on the proposed site.

It is worth noting too that impacts created by obstacles depend not only on the
height and width of the obstacle but also on the porosity; in other words on how
much wind that can pass through the obstacle (Wizelius, 2015, p.23).

4.1.6 Logistics, permission processes and stakeholder’s acceptance

Though these may seem, from the first glance, to be secondary issues or too
early to consider at this stage; it is in fact not the case. Understanding and
examining the site area and how accessible it is in terms of transportation and
installation of the system is indeed a crucial factor which affects the overall costs
of the project. For instance, it may be the case that an access road needs to be
built in order to ensure the safe transport of the system components (e.g. wind
turbines and heavy machinery). At times and especially for remote off-shore
areas, this can be a tricky assessment especially since projects’ logistics
throughout all the phases (including operation and maintenance) could be a
costly task to account for.

Stakeholder’s acceptance and approval (irrespective of the size of the system)

presents the key step in terms of legitimizing any project. Project’s stakeholders
will always be different from one project to another. Apart from the project’s
developer(s), projects’ stakeholders may well include land owners, investors,
Non Governmental Organizations (NGOs), manufacturers and suppliers, local
authorities, affected communities, environmentalists, clients/end users so on and
so forth. Neglecting any of the project’s stakeholders may have at times huge
detrimental effects that may cause delays or at worse case scenarios cancellations
of entire projects. It is therefore always important to identify all the stakeholders
involved and have them engaged right from the start and throughout the different
phases of the project.

To obtain permissions for systems’ components transportation, installation or

even for leasing the proposed site area or land can be a troublesome and is time
taking process which may well result in delay of the whole project. The
understanding of the requirements of the permission processes and how long
these may take and which stakeholders one must approach, all represent some
key info that any project developer must seek. Such info readily available helps
avoid unnecessary losses in both time and nonetheless costs down the line.
 23

4.2 Load specifics

Along with the site specifics discussed earlier, one key important factor that shall
inevitably directly affect the proposed design of an off-grid wind power system; lies on
the electricity demand and requirements. Answers to questions such as what the major
part of electrical load will be used for and what magnitude of load are we looking at,
represents nothing but significant details. This helps developers design their systems and
assess the feasibility of these within the given parameters of the project. For instance, is
the electricity required to fulfill the needs of a low-income community or is it
exclusively used for commercial purposes? In either case the anticipated average
magnitude of electricity requirement needs to be known. In addition to this, developers
should also be able to predict and identify any consumption patterns for the end-users
throughout the year. For example, would there be more energy demand during hot
summers, cold winters or during harvest and so on. At times also, there would be a
varying demand throughout the day itself. Moreover, developers should understand that
since weather conditions are always changing and no two days are same from a
meteorological perspective, hence too are the loads which may typically vary
significantly not only during the entire day but also during each hour of the day.
Furthermore queries, such as: What the peak load levels are, when do they typically
occur and how long do they last for, are all important set of information.

The closer the predictions are to the actual the demand and weather forecasts, the more
suited will these off-grid wind power systems be in meeting the end-users’ energy
demands.

4.3 (Sizing): Type, quantity and cost of equipment and operation

After having a rough idea of what the chosen type of off-grid wind power system and
it’s magnitude would be and entail (e.g. isolated grid AC or DC and/or stand-alone size
AC/DC or AC), it is then important to know whether or not the proposed system is
feasible in terms of costs and power outputs. Identification of the system components,
their initial capital costs, along with the operation and maintenance costs and nonetheless
fuel costs (in case of having diesel generators etc.) provides a significant indicator of
what the project’s entire costs and profits may be.

Factors that may typically affect the sizing of off-grids wind power systems include:

4.3.1 Varying of demand load

As mentioned earlier and due to the varying weather conditions from day to day
but rather hour to hour, load demands may vary accordingly. On the other hand,
particularities of the consumption patterns shall also inevitably dictate the type
and or combination of the adopted system(s).
 24

4.3.2 Variation in resource availability

Wind as a resource is intermittent, and its instantaneous availability entails a high

degree of uncertainty as compared to any other renewable source. Therefore to
have a thorough wind resource assessment is a prerequisite (Bandyopadhyay, S.,
and Roy, A., 2019, p.40). In addition to the wind resource, solar radiation can
also be of great importance to the system. Project developers may be able to
weigh their power sources better and thus size their system components more
effectively if they know the availability of the energy source (being just wind or
both wind and solar),

4.3.3 Turbine characteristics

There are various types of turbines to choose from . ** It is eventually the choice
of the appropriate design of the turbine’s rotor, electrical generator and power
control mechanism which dictates the power output of the wind turbine. Besides
these design parameters comes also the cost factor. A factor which weighs
heavily and plays a considerable role in terms of the decision making.
So there are in fact many aspects to look into and consider. Earlier experiences
do however indicate that turbines with low maintenance requirement are more
beneficial for remote sites than the ones which are technically superior
(Bandyopadhyay, S., and Roy, A., 2019, p.41).

4.3.4 Size of storage

Batteries are used to store excess energy and feed power back to the supply
whenever required. The choice of the size of the battery is primarily dependent
on the size of the generator along with correlation between load and resource
profiles. Batteries are expensive components which have their own charging and
discharging efficiencies (Bandyopadhyay, S., and Roy, A., 2019, p.41), hence it
is important that the system designer is well aware and vigilant during sizing
these.

4.3.5 Interdependency between system design variables

Due to the variation in both load and resource availability, it is important to find
a balance between the energy generators. This, accordingly has an impact on the
sizing of the system components and certainly the wind turbines to be used.
One example of such interdependency lies in the restrictions of location. For
instance, wind turbines in isolated wind systems are likely to have a higher rotor
 25

diameter for a given size of generator rating compared to a grid-connected wind

generator (Bandyopadhyay, S., and Roy, A., 2019, p.41).

4.4 Financing:
Financing and securing the capital required for the project would be another key factor
that needs to be examined well before and at an early stage, once a system is considered.
There are various financing prospects which are typically linked to the productive end-
users. These can range from financing for provision of social services, to income
generation activities (commercial) or to motive power for value-addition activities in
rural areas (PwC global power & utilities, 2015, p.1426).

4.5 Approach:
For a project developer to understand the significance of above mentioned factors (Site
selection, Load specifics, Sizing & Financing) whilst being able to identify and unveil
the details and find answers to these. This presents one major step into the success of the
project. It is only at this point and stage where project developers may feel satisfied that
their implementation and adoption of off-grid wind power systems would payoff.
However the question which still remains unanswered in this thesis is how can project
developers approach all these factors and what sort of tools do these need to use in order
to obtain the most reliable results?

In the following chapter, a closer look into the various mechanisms and tools that may
assist project developers successfully verify the influencing factors shall be presented.

CHAPTER 5. HOW TO APPROACH THE INFLUENCING FACTORS

There are certainly various means of approaching the planning of off-grid wind power
systems or in fact any other system, however in this chapter the focus will be on the
aiding tools and mechanisms that may help achieve the best optimum results. The main
purpose of having this chapter lies in reflecting the extent of details and depth of
knowledge that project developers typically undergo should they wish to plan for a
successful off-grid wind power system (simple or complex).

Yet again and in order to highlight how these mechanisms and tools may help in the
decision making, a Wind/PV/Diesel/Battery system has been chosen to represent the
typical off-grid wind power system.

The following are few of the earlier discussed factors and their corresponding means of
approach.
 26

5.1 Site selection

5.1.1 Site climate

As indicated in the previous chapter, proper site selection for off-grid wind power
systems involves examining many parameters and conditions. However the dominating
factor has always been and remains to be the wind resource availability together with the
weather conditions in the proposed site area. It is therefore extremely important for
project developers to study these two parameters carefully and thoroughly before
concluding the exact installation location.

Project developers may identify the above mentioned parameters through many ways.
Figure 6 below shows few of these methods in the so called “Data-Driven Pyramid of
Wind Assessment”
Though the preferred way would be to measure the wind speed (at the proposed site and
height) with accurate wind-recording equipment (e.g. a digital anemometer) for a period
of time. However, this is often cost-prohibitive for small wind systems or off-grid wind
power systems because of the relative cost of the measuring equipment to the actual cost
of the wind-generating system. (Small Wind., 2019)

One cost effective and less time consuming approach would be to get hold of wind
maps and latest geographical local maps of the area concerned.

Wind maps are available for many countries throughout the world. For instance the
National Renewable Energy Laboratory web site has wind maps available for about 30
countries. The Riso National Laboratory in Denmark also maintains wind maps for
almost all of Europe and several different countries. These wind maps give either
average wind speeds or wind power densities for many regions. Because worldwide
maps are available at various heights, project developers need to be sure to note the
height of the wind resource information obtained. Wind speed varies with height and
will need to be corrected to the proposed height of the studied wind system.(Small
Wind., 2019)

Moreover and from a conservative design’s perspective it is always important to predict

lower wind speeds than unrealistically high winds.

Geographical maps from the local authorities can also be very helpful not only in
identifying the topography of the site area more closely but furthermore for allowing
project developers inquire about other key parameters such as area’s weather conditions
and future construction plans if any.

At times, there could be other wind turbines near the proposed project area. In such
circumstance project developers may find it helpful and cost effective too to seek and
utilize any existing valuable data from these neighboring projects.
 27

Figure 6. Data-driven Pyramid that shows ways of assessing winds at sites (Shea.K., and
Howard, B.C., 2011, p.145).

5.1.2 Site physical conditions

Turbulence intensity is a major issue for small turbines because of their tower height and
location around "ground clutter." Turbulence can reduce the annual energy output
estimate from 15% to 25%. Therefore, in addition to the verification of the exiting
natural topography and geologic formations of the site, project developers need to
consider existing obstacles such as trees, houses, and sheds (See Figure 7). Moreover
they should be aware of any plans for future obstructions such as new buildings or trees
that have not reached their full height. Typically the turbine needs to be sited upwind (in
direction from the wind blowing) of buildings and trees, and as a rule of thumb the
turbine needs to be 30 feet above anything within a 500-foot horizontal radius. There
should also be enough room to raise and lower the turbine tower for maintenance, and
should the tower be a guyed one then project developers must ensure that there is
sufficient room for the guy wires. (Energy.Gov., No Date)

Additionally, the site assessment must cover roads, obstacles, and site accessibility for
the delivery of the wind turbine, tower, and construction equipment, as well as for the
actual installation. Although the site assessment does not normally include a soils test, it
is important to include at least some information about obvious soil issues that could
affect foundation design and construction, such as intermittent water, sand, unstable
slopes, rocks, expansive clay and frost depth. (Olsen, T. and Preus, R., 2015, p.5)
 28

Figure 7. Obstruction of the wind by a building or a tree of height (H). (Energy.Gov., No

Date)

Project developers may at the end of the day seek/hire an experienced small wind site
assessor who can determine where the turbine(s) should be located on the property.

5.2 Stakeholders’ acceptance, Logistics & Permission processes

As discussed in earlier chapters, site selection cannot be just confined to having an

abundance energy resource (wind, solar etc.) or ideal physical and natural features on the
ground, but there are in fact more crucial factors to consider. Factors such as logistics,
permission processes and stakeholders’ acceptance also play a huge role in whether or
not the proposed site is worth investing in. The following gives brief discussions on how
these factors can be handled by the developers:

5.2.1 Stakeholders’ acceptance

Project developers must realize that wind turbines are after all foreign structures to the
environments/sites they are being installed in.
The zoning and permitting processes seek to address safety, aesthetics, and community
interests and concerns. Some of these concerns might include sound level, visual impact,
wildlife impact, TV/radio interference, ice shedding, or broken equipment. Although
some of these issues may be perceived rather than actual, project developers must be
ready to address them all and understand them well enough to provide sound advice on
the turbine location. (Olsen, T. and Preus, R., 2015, p.4) One typical example that could
be an issue for the community living nearby is the noise created by the turbine(s).
 29

All wind turbines make some noise because of the rotation of the blades and the
generator, however small wind turbines tend to make more noise than larger machines
because the blades turn faster. The generator is another source of noise in wind turbines
but usually can be reduced by adding insulation to the generator housing. Another source
of noise is the gear box. Because noise is also dissipated with distance, the best way to
lower the noise level at the property line is to move the turbine away from the line.

5.2.2 Logistics and Permission processes

Besides the communities and landowners there are other stakeholders that project
developers should naturally interact with and reach to during the earlier stages of any
plan. Few key ones include:

- Wind turbines and other system components’ manufacturers/suppliers

- Transporters of the system and other components (solar cells etc.)
- Systems’ installers
- Systems’ operator
- Local authorities granting permits
- Local Non Governmental Organizations (NGOs)

For off-grid wind power systems it is particularly important at times to be extremely

careful when it comes to the transportation of the system components.
For instance and in off-grid projects such as offshore ones, the increased necessary usage
of several means of specialized transportation (e.g. jack up vessels, pontoons) results in a
bottleneck risk due to their limited availability, as these may be booked out for years in
advance (Kosub, T & Gatzert,N., 2016, p.10). Therefore, a close collaboration between
the project developer and the transporter in charge becomes quite crucial.

Project developers need to be aware of the permission process, get to know the specific
requirements and know how long the process may take. The easiest way to seek such
info would be by contacting the responsible local authorities. In these situations perhaps
having local developers are an advantage since they may be well aware of the country’s
rules and regulations and nonetheless how local authorities function and process permits.

A very efficient way of planning site selection after having verified the availability of a
good wind source would be to adopt a “round table” method. A municipality in
Denmark called Thisted has adopted such method. The starting point was the map of the
municipality and the wind resource map. First zones exempted in the regional wind
power plan of the country were excluded – a large zone along the sea coast, as well as
minimum distances to the buildings etc. Then all areas that were considered possible for
wind turbines were drawn onto the map. All these sites were examined and unsuitable
areas, due to local obstacles etc., were deleted. (Wizelius, 2015, p.123).
 30

After having narrowing down and pin pointing the proposed site(s), the work group then
sat around a table with the map to discuss and negotiate until a consensus was reached
on all areas that would be included in the plan. Thereafter the plan was forwarded to the
building committee, which examined the proposed areas and accordingly made some
slight changes. Following this, the plan was presented to the public, before the
politicians in the municipality adopted it. (Wizelius, 2015, p.123).

There are certainly various means and perhaps different levels of analyzing the proposed
site(s) of interest. However what remains to be of high significance when it comes to
choosing the most suitable sites routes from the close collaboration between the project’s
stakeholders.

5.3 Load specifics

As mentioned in an earlier section, power customers have different magnitudes of power

needs. This is due to the wide range of applications, which differ and change over the
different hours of the day and the different days of the week and seasons (Seppälä, A.,
1996, p.12). For instance Off-grid wind power systems may be used for business
solutions, domestic applications, offshore developments, community power stations or
remote stand-alone systems (Small Wind Energy Solutions, No Date, p.2). All of which
has its own nature of power demand and magnitude (e.g. feeding large or small
Residential, Commercial or Industrial facilities). It is therefore quite natural that each
customer is unique and has his own particular energy load profile which needs to be
carefully examined and met.
Figure 8. below provides an example of three types of customer’s load variation over
one week.
 31

Figure 8. Example of Residential, Commercial and Industrial customer types’ load

profiles (Seppälä, A., 1996, p.12).

There are numerous means by which energy consumptions may be identified, however
the more complex the power demand is (i.e. large energy magnitude for wide range of
appliances at different times) the more difficult the approach would be. For instance
determining the energy consumption for a commercial/industrial facility would be more
challenging than determining it for a number of houses or a small village.
While techniques such as conducting door-to-door household surveys (i.e. through
questionnaires) or installing smart meters at the studied houses may be enough for
identifying load profiles of a small village (Seixas, J., and Gouveia, J.P., 2016, p.
),
667 more sophisticated methods such as data-driven techniques integrated with a
physics based model would be used elsewhere for more complex power systems.

Few commonly used methods include:

 Artificial Neural Networks (ANN): Typically applied in industrial and

commercial building energy models such as estimating the space heating
energy consumptions from surveys, forecasting annual energy
consumption of industrial sectors, predicting office building energy
consumption in subtropical climates along with predicting cooling load of
public buildings.(Dong, B., et al., 2016, p.342)
 32

 Gaussian Process Regression (GPR): This is capable of forecasting

weekly and annual load of domestic, commercial and industrial buildings
(Dong, B., et al., 2016, p.342).

 Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM): This is typically applied to commercial

buildings for hourly and daily load prediction (Dong, B., et al., 2016,
p.342).

Load specifics remain to be one key crucial factor that needs to be pinpointed to help
project developers design the most suitable and optimum system for a given project. The
above mentioned means provided only basic methods of what project developers may
use or exhibit. However whether these are sufficient or not depends primarily on the
project and its complexity.

5.4 (Sizing): Type and quantity of equipment

It is certainly not an easy task to identify the optimum number of wind turbines, ratings
or diameter of each machine for a given project. Likewise concluding the number of
other supporting systems and units such as photovoltaic arrays, diesel generators and
batteries is surely a challenge. However, encountering these rather “wicked” problems
within the industry is not a new issue and means of tackling these have already been
addressed. The use of various software tools has been one handy approach in helping
project developers size their systems. There are about nineteen (19) of these, however
some of the prominently used ones are HOMER, RETScreenHybrid2 and iHOGA. The
following subsection shall reflect the significance of these softwares in terms of sizing
systems. Due to the limited capacity of the thesis, a typical widely used software
(HOMER) is chosen to represent how these softwares function and benefit project
developers and designers.

5.4.1 HOMER (Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables)

This software which has been developed by the National Renewable Energy
Laboratory (NREL) in USA assists in the design of micropower systems and
facilitates the comparison of power generation technologies across a wide range of
applications. Besides having the provision to assist modelers and designers
understand and quantify the effects of uncertainty or changes in inputs, the software
also furnishes the many different design options that could be chosen from (Lambert,
T., Gilman, P., and Lilienthal, P., 2006, p. 379).
 33

Basically the following three key tasks summarize what HOMER software undertakes
under a time step simulation:

 Simulation process: Here, the software models the performance of a

particular micropower system setup each hour of the year in order to
determine its life-cycle cost and technical feasibility

 Optimization process: By stimulating many different configurations the

software aims to identify the optimum configuration (i.e. optimum set/mix of
components in size, type and quantity). One which satisfies the technical
requirements yet at the lowest life-cycle cost.(Lambert, T., Gilman, P., and
Lilienthal, P., 2006, p. 385)

 Sensitivity: In this process the software uses a range of assumed input values
to see how these affects the various potential configurations. Examples of
such input values could be average wind speeds and future fuel prices
(Lambert, T., Gilman, P., and Lilienthal, P., 2006, p. 385).

Figure 9. below shows an example of how a subset of HOMER’s overall optimization

results table would look like. While each row on the table represents a feasible
system configuration, table columns represent both the different possible
components/configuration of a system and the key simulation results concluded by
the HOMER software. Key simulation results entail: The total capital cost of the
system, the total net present cost, the levelized cost of energy (cost per kilowatthour),
the annual fuel consumption and the number of hours the generator operates per year.
(Lambert, T., Gilman, P., and Lilienthal, P., 2006, p. 387)

One key column of interest to the system’s designer or project developer would be in
the Total Net Present Cost (NPC) or which is also known as The Life-Cycle Cost.
The Total NPC of a system is basically defined as: the present value of all the costs
the system incurs over its lifetime, minus the present value of all the revenue it earns
over its lifetime. Costs include capital costs, replacement costs, O&M costs, fuel
costs, emissions penalties, and the costs of buying power from the grid. Revenues
include salvage value and grid sales revenue. (HOMER Pro 3.10., No Date)

Only represented in the table are the least-cost configuration within each system
category or type. In this particular example, the top-ranked system which is naturally
the one with the least cost amounts to $849,905. This optimal configuration contains
one wind turbine, the 135-kW generator, 64 batteries and a 30-kW converter.
The table indicates how the first seven least cost systems comprise of wind-diesel-
battery components. Indicative also from this example how the eighth top-ranked
system concluded by the HOMER software comprises only of a diesel-battery
configuration. (Lambert, T., Gilman, P., and Lilienthal, P., 2006, p. 387)
 34

Figure 9. Overall optimization results table showing system configurations sorted by

total net present cost (Lambert, T., Gilman, P., and Lilienthal, P., 2006, p. 387).

While the goal of the optimization is to determine the optimal value of each
configuration that interests the modeler, the HOMER software may also be used to
perform a sensitivity analysis. The analysis reveals how sensitive the outputs are, to
changes in the inputs. This is performed through having HOMER enter a range of
values for a single input variable (i.e. a sensitivity variable). Basically a sensitivity
variable is almost every numerical input variable which is not a decision variable.
Table 5 below indicates examples of both types of variables.

Decision Variable Sensitivity Variable

The number of turbines Fuel price
The size of generators Interest rate
The number of batteries Lifetime of the PV array
The size of the ac-dc converter Grid power price
The dispatch strategy (the set of rules
-
governing how the system operates)
Table 5. Decision and Sensitivity variable examples (Lambert, T., Gilman, P., and
Lilienthal, P., 2006, p. 388).
 35

HOMER software can perform a sensitivity analysis with any number of sensitivity
variables. A distinct sensitivity case is formed from a combination of sensitivity variable
values. For instance, if the user specifies five values for the grid power price and five
values for the interest rate, that defines twenty five (25) distinct sensitivity cases. In
accordance, HOMER can perform a separate optimization process for each of these
twenty five (25) sensitivity cases and present the results in various tabular and graphic
formats (Lambert, T., Gilman, P., and Lilienthal, P., 2006, p. 389).

Wide variable values can be entered by the project developers or designers if they are
uncertain of the value of a particular variable. Once results are obtained then only they
can decide which values would suit them best. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis could
be very useful for system designers and developers when it comes to finding the most
optimal technology or configuration under a range of different conditions.
Such features provided by the sensitivity analysis could be also a valuable tool for
market and policy analysts. For instance it could help policy analysts identify the level of
incentives needed to enhance the market of a particular technology or help a market
analyst determine the range of pricing or conditions where a product (e.g. a wind
turbine) may compete with any alternatives. (Lambert, T., Gilman, P., and Lilienthal, P.,
2006, p. 389)

5.4.2 Equipment properties

In order to allow project developers and designers utilize softwares such as HOMER and
nevertheless be able to predict the total costs of their systems, it is important that the
equipment properties and features are known and recognized right from the early stages
of the design (e.g. wind turbine, solar PV, batteries etc.). Due to the limited capacity of
the thesis and yet the vast possible options of equipment and setups, only basic yet key
input variables concerning the sizing of the wind turbines shall be provided hereunder.
Other main components such as solar panels, diesel generators, batteries etc. will not be
analyzed due to limitations of this thesis).

 Wind turbine Size:

Wind turbines have several different sizes. The size here being defined primarily
through the hub height, rotor diameter and nominal power of the turbine.
However the main parameter for the definition of a turbine’s size remains to be
the rotor diameter or the rotor swept area. Basically the bigger the swept area is,
the more wind that can be captured and transformed to power. (Wizelius, 2015,
p.195)
It is quite common to have manufacturers offer different options of their models.
For instance, being able to choose between two or three different hub heights or
type of towers (e.g. tubular steel, precast concretes etc.) is a typical set of choices
for one model. (Wizelius, 2015, p.196)
 36

Furthermore, different wind turbines are designed to suit best different site
conditions. For example, low-wind turbines have a large rotor diameter (in
relation to the rated power) and a low rated wind speed (the wind speed where
the wind turbine reaches its rated power). On the other hand; high-wind turbines
have a small rotor diameter (in relation to the rated power) and a high rated wind
speed. This classification is based on the relation between the nominal power and
the rotor swept area in kW/m2. Live examples of such classifications can be
noted from what the turbine manufacturers have to offer. For instance Vestas has
the Vestas model V90 with a 90m rotor diameter of 1.8, 2 or 3MW generators to
serve low, normal and high wind sites respectively. (Wizelius, 2015, p.196)

Table 6 below shows few examples of various turbine models having different
rated powers and other specifics.

Wind turbine Rated power Rated wind Rotor Rotor swept

(kW/m2)
model (kW) speed (m/s) diameter (m) area (m2)
Vestas V90-1.8 1800 12 90 6362 0.28
Vestas V90-2.0 2000 13 90 6362 0.31
Vestas V90-3.0 3000 15 90 6362 0.47
Enercon E-48 800 14 48 1810 0.44
Enercon E-53 800 13 53 2205 0.36
Table 6. Different turbine models (Wizelius, 2015, p.197).

Wind turbine classes established by the International Electrotechnical

Commission (IEC) may also be used to help project developers and designers
narrow down and determine the type of turbine that would best suit their project.
The classes which are numbered from I to IV (highest to moderate wind
conditions respectively) are used for the standardaization and certification of
wind turbines. Table 7 below indicates these IEC classes and what they entail.

IEC Class
Parameter I II III IV S
vref (m/s) 50 42.5 37.5 30
Vave (m/s) 10 8.5 7.5 6
AI1.5 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 Values to be
specified by
A 2 2 2 2 the designer
BI1.5 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16
A 3 3 3 3
Table 7. IEC classes for wind turbines (Wizelius, 2015, p.197)
The values apply at hub height, and ‘A’ designates higher turbulence, ‘B’ designates lower turbulence, ‘I1.5’ is the
turbulence intensity at 15m/s, ‘a’ is the slope parameter in the normal turbulence model equation.
 37

One example from above table: Class IIB. This class indicates that such turbines
may be used at a site with a mean wind speed of more than 8.5m/s and where the
turbulence intensity is more than 0.16 at a wind speed of 15m/s.

Typically used in rural electrification off-grid systems are the small wind
turbines (SWT). These are usually smaller in size, simpler in construction and
have lower energy output (up to 100 kW) as compared to the large commercial
wind turbines found in wind farms. The two most common designs of SWTs are
the horizontal axis wind turbines (HAWTs) and the vertical axis wind turbines
(VAWTs). Most SWTs manufactured today are HAWTs with two or three blades
facing the wind. Unlike the larger wind turbines, installation of SWTs requires
neither extensive infrastructure, nor special equipment for carrying the
equipment. SWTs work best and present a great potential to provide electric
power, especially in remote and hilly locations. (Bhattacharyya, S., 2013, p. 62)

The choice of wind turbines may also be approached through HOMER software.
However, in order for the software to be able to calculate the power output of a
turbine, there are certain parameters that need to be known and determined first.
The key ones include:

 Wind resource data, (i.e. wind speeds in a given hub height)

 Turbines’ power curves (e.g. shown in Figure 10 below)
 Expected lifetime of the turbine in years

Figure 10. Power curve example (Lambert, T., Gilman, P., and Lilienthal, P., 2006, p.
400).

Each hour, HOMER calculates the power output of the wind turbine in the
following four-steps process.
I. By referring to the wind resource data, the average wind speed for the
hour at the anemometer height is determined.
 38

II. Using either the logarithmic law or power law, HOMER calculates the
corresponding wind speed at the turbine’s hub height
III. Assuming a standard air density of 1.225 kg/m3 and referring to the
turbine’s power curve, HOMER calculates it’s power output at that wind
speed.
IV. Finally, using the calculated power output value from previous step,
HOMER then multiplies this by the air density ratio (a ratio of the actual
air density to the standard air density). (Lambert, T., Gilman, P., and
Lilienthal, P., 2006, p. 400)

5.5 Economics of the project

Besides sizing the system, identifying the economics of the project represents yet
another key factor which has great impact on the systems’ choice. After the
realistic calculation and estimate of how much electric power the wind power
plant will produce at the chosen site in a normal wind year, the next task would
primarily cover unveiling and studying the project’s costs.
Verification of the economics of the proposed system not only helps the
developers determine the type of costs their systems would bear or revenue it
would generate but moreover this may well assist in securing the financing of the
project.

Few major costs and parameters that typically form an off-grid wind power
system are discussed hereunder in below sections:
5.5.1 Investment costs
Investment budget usually includes the following major items:

 Wind turbines:

As discussed in earlier sections, there are different models and sizes of wind
turbines, each which best suits certain conditions and circumstances. Once the
choice has been made then a wind turbine investment cost shall be borne by the
project developer.
Costs concerning wind turbines here do not only represent the purchase price of
the turbine(s) but also bear the costs of transporting these to the site, and have
them mounted and installed as designed. For wind power plants installed on land,
usually the cost for the turbines amounts to about 75% of the total investment
budget (Wizelius, 2015, p.200)
Other major equipment such as solar arrays, diesel generators etc. may also be
included under this category should a stand-alone system be considered.
 39

 Foundations:

Depending on the site conditions, types of wind turbine towers to be installed and
nevertheless the size of available budget, all help in determining the foundation
costs. Similar to wind turbines, shouldered costs here include both the purchase
price and installation costs of the foundations. (Wizelius, 2015, p.201)

 Access roads:

This cost depends on the local conditions. Factors such as the size and weight of
the turbines to be transported to the site, along with the length of the road that
needs to be built, all play a key role in determining the cost of this category. At
times it may be sufficient just to reinforce existing roads, however such a
decision needs to be carefully examined to avoid any potential accidents
especially during the construction phase which involves frequent movements of
heavy trucks and mobile cranes to and from the site. (Wizelius, 2015, p. 201)

 Project development:

This cost varies greatly depending on both the time needed for the development
process and the fees the developer/designer or consultants charge. Project
development cost includes costs of planning (time project developer needs to
spend working on the project). During this time a series of tasks need to be
performed. Key ones include: Preparing an Environmental Impact Assessment
(EIA), Conducting business negotiations and meetings with project’s various
stakeholders along with running economic calculations etc. (Wizelius, 2015, p.
201)

It is certainly not an easy task to calculate the total investment cost of a project.
This becomes even more difficult for off-shore wind power projects where
logistics and installations are far more complex than on-shore ones. Common
practices to help minimize miscalculations and estimates of budgets in general
involve incorporating good contingency percentage for unexpected costs.

5.5.2 Operation and Maintenance (O&M) costs

Compared to other power plants, wind power O&M costs are very low (Wizelius,
2015, p.203). This is due to the low manpower and null fuel consumption during
the operation phase. However regular services and maintenance are still
necessary to ensure that wind turbines are running as intended. Similarly, should
there be other power sources such as solar arrays, battery banks or diesel
generators in the proposed system, then these too require servicing and
maintenance.
 40

5.5.3 Capital costs

This is calculated by the annuity method. The annuity here is basically the sum of
amortization (pay back loan) and interest where the sum of the amortization plus
interest will be constant, i.e. the same sum each year. The annual capital cost C a
is calculated by the so-called annuity formula (Wizelius, 2015, p.204) (see below
equation).

C a = a * Ci (1)
Equation 1. Annuity formula (Wizelius, 2015, p.204)

Where:
a is the annuity
Ci is the investment cost

5.5.4 Revenues and economic predictions

Depending on whether or not the proposed system is intended to sell electric
power and hence generate a revenue from this, this category may be applicable
for some and not all off-grid wind power systems. In case revenues are
anticipated then project developers need to be aware (at least roughly) of the
costs that they will be selling their electric power for.

There are several ways by which project developers may predict the economic
benefits of their systems. Equation 2 for instance, calculates the system’s annual
profit:

Pa = Ia – Ca – OMa (2)
Equation 2. Annual Profit (Wizelius, 2015, p.203)

Where:
Pa is the annual profit
Ia is the annual income
Ca is the annual cost of capital
OMa is the annual cost of operation and maintenance

Another important equation (Equation 3 below) that may be used to help

determine whether or not a project/system is worth building or not is the
Levelized Cost Of Energy (LCOE).
The LCOE is basically a measure of lifetime costs of the project divided by the
energy production. It is in fact one of the most commonly used metrics for
assessing the financial viability of energy projects.

Ecost = (Ca + OMa )/ (Annual production in kWh/year) (3)

Equation 3. LCOE formula (Wizelius, 2015, p.203)
 41

Where:
Ecost is the LCOE
Ca is the annual cost of capital
OMa is the annual cost of operation and maintenance

Further and from an investor’s perspective it is always important that a clear

time frame is identified in terms of paying back the invested money. Equation 4
below represents such approach.

T = Investment / Annual net income) (4)

Equation 4. Payback time formula (Wizelius, 2015, p.205)

Where:
T is the payback time

Other than the basic and rather limited set of equations mentioned above, project
developers may also seek assistance of softwares such HOMER to help them
understand better and perhaps predict more accurately the economics of their
respective projects. In fact, economics play an integral role both in HOMER’s
simulation process, wherein it operates the system so as to minimize total net
present cost, and in its optimization process, wherein it searches for the system
configuration with the lowest total net present cost. (Lambert, T., Gilman, P., and
Lilienthal, P., 2006, p. 414)

5.5.5 Financing and incentives:

There are several ways by which wind power systems may be financed.
However. it is always important to study the specifics of each project before
approaching any of the available financing options. Hence, and as a rule of
thumb, project developers shall always research loan and grant options carefully
and find banks or other investors that offer interest rates and payback times that
the project can afford (Wizelius, 2015, p.203).
Usually large companies with good cash balance and reserves may be able to
finance their new projects; however for small and medium-sized enterprises this
is not the case. Instead, these usually need to take loans from a bank or any other
credit institutions. (Wizelius, 2015, p.206)

Few key means of interest, which may be applicable to off-grid wind power
systems in which project developers may refer to during their financing search
for their proposed systems include:

 Capital subsidies: This typically involves money coming from public

treasuries or assistance granted by utilities with funds drawn from charges
 42

that electricity consumers pay for public benefits. This form of subsidies
can take a number of forms:
 Grants and Rebates- While a grant is usually in the form of
money paid directly to the recipient, rebates involves the
consumers purchasing the system first and then filing the
necessary paperwork to receive money back according to the
value of the announced rebate.
 Production incentives- Represents an attractive approach to
encourage consumers to choose optimum designs since they can
only be paid based on production, not prediction. One increasingly
popular example of such incentive is the feed-in tariff (FIT). A
feed-in tariff establishes a set price at which a utility purchases
excess electricity from a renewable generator, such as a small
wind system.(Shea.K., and Howard, B.C., 2011, p.191)

 Business Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC): Is a corporate tax

incentive that allows for owners of new wind energy of any size to receive
tax credits worth 30% of the value of the facility. (U.S. Department of
Energy, 2013, p.1)

 Incentives for Tax-exempt entities: This type of incentive works best for
entities that cannot take advantage of tax-credits (U.S. Department of
Energy, 2013, p.1).

 Low interest loans: Lowering interests may encourage project developers

seek larger amounts/loans for their projects.

The “know-how” of planning for off-grid wind power systems may be a simple process
or a complicated one. Main factors such as the size of the project, its application
purpose, surrounding circumstances & environment and involved stakeholders, all
dictate how easy or difficult the process can be. Therefore, it may not be the case that all
the above methods of approach are applicable to ones’ off-grid wind power system.
Similarly and due to the limitations of this thesis, there may be other practical means of
approach. After all, each site and size of project is different and requires a unique
approach.

Besides the above methods, project developers can also benefit and learn from any
executed studies or conducted projects within the region/area of interest. The study of
these may help identify some typical potential challenges that may be encountered for
similar future projects. Likewise project developers could refer to any successful
adopted means which helped address and overcome the challenges in these earlier
completed projects.
 43

In the following Chapter, few examples of conducted studies related to off-grid wind
power system in different parts of the world are presented. The purpose behind sharing
these is to reflect the extent of valuable information that project developers may benefit
from whilst planning projects.

CHAPTER 6. CONDUCTED STUDIES & SURVEYS

The following are few set of studies and surveys conducted in different regions of the
world.

6.1 Remote Alaska communities and wind-diesel hybrid systems

In 2013 an informal survey was conducted on the most important characteristics of a
successful wind-diesel hybrid power project in small remote rural communities of
Alaska. The aim was to help guide socioeconomic research in the area on community
capacity to ensure sustainable projects (Fay, G., & Udovyk, N., 2013, p.554).

Although the majority of the respondents involved in the survey had

technical/engineering backgrounds, it was thus thought that the so called “success
factors” of the projects would naturally be technically related ones; however this was not
the case. Results from the survey has discovered that social factors such as
“Community’s commitment, participation and support of the project” along with “Local
work-force training” had the highest rankings among the “success factors” there. So in
summary, the survey has recognized that even with technically inclined project
developers, influences of community interests and their involvement has been found to
be the most significant and crucial factor for the success of the project.

6.2 Canadian remote wind diesel hybrid systems from a developer perspective

In a one year-long survey that was distributed to stakeholders in wind-diesel systems in

remote Canadian communities, both capital and operating costs were found to be the
most significant barriers to the implementation of such projects. Access to the
appropriate equipment and skilled labour in remote communities has been also ranked as
a next most significant obstacle to wind-diesel deployment in Canada. (M.Weis, T.,
Ilinca, A., & Pinard, J-P., 2008, p. 1620)

Project developers who were amongst the stakeholders included in the survey
emphasized the importance of local community involvement in decision making and
project management to long-term project operation and maintenance. Education of the
community leaders to ensure that projects could be driven from within community itself
as opposed to from either electric utilities or even developers outside of the community,
 44

was seen as a crucial success factor from the developers’ perspective. (M.Weis, T.,
Ilinca, A., & Pinard, J-P., 2008, p. 1618)

Other targeted stakeholders in the study were wind energy technology manufacturers,
researchers, electric utility companies and government decision makers (M.Weis, T.,
Ilinca, A., & Pinard, J-P., 2008, p. 1612).

6.3 German onshore wind power market from a developer perspective

A study conducted in 2013 on the success factors and challenges facing project
developers in the German wind power market (which was basically the largest in the EU
and third in the world at the time with 31GW) has revealed few interesting conclusions
(Beckius, D., & Magnusson, D., 2013, p.19).

Although the study has only covered onshore systems (i.e. both grid connected and off-
grid ones) it did however find out that more than half of the installed capacity (53%)
came from private persons with individual installations or small wind farms of two or
three turbines (Beckius, D., & Magnusson, D., 2013, p.52), hence indicating an off-grid
wind power setup.

The following are some key findings from the posed questions in the study:

 “How do developers in the German market onshore wind power market source
projects?”

 The main conclusions from this study are that being local and having local
contacts offer distinct advantages.

 The findings show that all of the specified resources were ranked as important,
but access to capital, negotiating power and credibility were ranked as slightly
more important.

 Of the different specified actors and partners, landowners were considered to

be by far most important, followed by local politicians, local community, permit
authorities and regional planning authorities. Manufacturers, owners of wind
farms and early-stage developers were, however, not considered particularly
important.

 Regarding methods for finding sites, finding one with high probability of being
included in the regional plan and asking local contacts seem to be good
options. If the site is not included in the regional plan, then it is important to
leverage local connections to get it changed. Another good option is to lease
land from an external landowner, whereas using external partners or site
hunters to find sites is used by some, but not considered particularly important.
 45

 Community buy-in is considered to be very important for projects success and

local recognition is important in order to get it.(Beckius, D., & Magnusson, D.,
2013, p.95)

 “What are the success factors and challenges for a developer in the German
market today?”

 The success factors revealed are: having local contacts, being a credible
company, being first to contact landowners as well as gaining strong support
from the local community and authorities.

 The challenges include: the limited availability of sites for wind power
development, difficulties in getting all landowners onboard, competitors offering
higher payments, weak support from the local community and authorities and
protests from the local community. (Beckius, D., & Magnusson, D., 2013, p.96)

6.4 Southern and East Africa (EEP Africa) study on mini-grid technologies

The objective of the study was to provide an overview of the EEP mini-grid portfolio, to
highlight observations and conclude lessons concerning the challenges and opportunities
in the regions’ mini-grid sector. Moreover, the study which covered a total of two
hundred and twenty five (225) mini-grid projects, has provided a set of
recommendations for the developers and the programmes that support them. (EEP &
NDF, 2018, p.5)

The study consisted of three data collection methods:

- Desktop review of EEP project documents: proposals, monitoring and evaluation

assessments, progress and completion reports.
- Questionnaires and interviews with selected project developers and mini-grid
experts.
- Review of other analyses and studies on the mini-grid sector in Africa. (EEP &
NDF, 2018, p.5)

The key findings entailed:

- One of the key success factors involved the recruiting and training of skilled and
dedicated local teams to build strong relationships with the community. (EEP &
NDF, 2018, p.39)
 46

 Other success factors included the existence of the following:

- A functioning policy and regulatory framework in place

- Identified locations being far from the main grid and have vibrant local
economies. Potential customers typically included: Industrial or agro-processing
companies, small businesses and or densely populated residential households.
(EEP & NDF, 2018, p.38)

- More developers stimulating local economic activities and supporting small

businesses. Electrified have become business hubs. In addition to increasing
demand and revenues, this brings wider development impact to the community.
(EEP & NDF, 2018, p.39)

- The adoption of the so called ABC (Anchor-Business-Consumers) strategy

business model by the mini-grid project developers. This helped them to work
with the most financially stable mini-grids projects.

The ABC strategy entailed project developers’ prioritization of targeted clients,

with “Anchor clients” being the most targeted ones; followed with “Business
clients” and lastly the “Domestic consumers” (EEP & NDF, 2018, p.33)

The Project developers’ choice was also in favor of the following:

 Anchor clients (often an agroprocessing facility) that are active enough to
ensure economic viability and have a predictable electricity load profile
with an adjustable demand profile to match supply.
 Business clients with revenue sources that provide sustainable demand
and encourage local economic growth.
 Domestic consumers especially in densely populated locations.(EEP &
NDF, 2018, p.33)

The above real life examples and studies certainly illustrates how off-grid systems in
general and off-grid wind power systems in particular are perceived by project
developers in these countries. Though the above examples route from different
environments, economies and nevertheless policy structures, however one common
factor derived from these reflects the importance of communities in the success of the
projects.

CHAPTER 7. DISCUSSION

In previous chapters (namely Chapters 3, 4 and 5) we saw what it takes for project
developers to undergo the process of planning for Off-grid wind power systems. Factors
such as site selection, stakeholder’s acceptance, load specifics identification, and ability
 47

to size and finance systems have been stressed to be decisive issues which inevitably
affect the decision making regarding the choice/size of systems and sites.
Client’s choice too was found to be quite important though this was not discussed
thoroughly since it was not part of the thesis aim.

Discussed, also, was how there may be different sizes/types of systems and nonetheless
varying applications to meet the wide range of end-users. Few key aiding tools in this
regards indicated significance of the use of softwares such as HOMER which showed to
have play great roles in helping project developers choose and identify the best optimal
systems for any given circumstances. The choice of turbines with low maintenance
requirement for remote sites was also considered more relevant as this helps in
minimizing the operation and maintenance costs of projects.

Knowing and verifying the economics of the studied projects presented also a key
indication of whether or not a potential project is profitable. For project developers the
following parameters represented some key values that needed to be verified or closely
examined.

 Pa: the annual profit

 Ecost : the Levelized Cost Of Energy
 T: the payback time

Besides filling energy gaps worldwide and promoting many aspects of sustainable
development, project developer’s main reasons for seeking off-grid wind power systems
routes from the ability to serve various end-users with competitive priced energy sources
and without having the need to connect to the main grids

Indicative good practices that project developers ought to pursue included forming close
collaborations with all stakeholders, allowing ample time to study the proposed sites,
being conservative with systems design and nonetheless being open and flexible with
any brought up suggestions.

In the previous chapter with the studies shared with different countries, the significance
of having a local developer was quite indicative in terms of tackling and fulfilling some
key project’s prerequisites (e.g. liasing with the locals, local authorities, obtaining
permits etc.). The influence of local communities in the decision making of off-grid
wind power projects was also strongly reflected by these earlier shared studies.
The ABC business model strategy adopted by the EEP African countries has provided
one good example of how project developers can prioritize their target clients.

In the following subsection a summary of the key findings of the those important
elements and factors project developers need to know during the planning of Off-grid
wind power systems shall be presented.
 48

7.1 Summary flow chart

Figure 11 on the following page provides a summary flow chart of what was concluded
from earlier chapters with regards to off-grid wind power systems planning. The project
developers’ “recipe” flow chart so to speak also presented few key common challenges
and obstacles that may be expected along the process.

Although in earlier chapters and in the presented flow chart below a certain path was
proposed; this in essence need not to be the only sequence to be followed. Different
projects have their own surrounding circumstances and specific targets to achieve.
Hence different means of approach are expected.
Moreover, bearing in mind that projects’ sizes and levels of complexity differ from one
another. This flow chart yet presents key steps that may be experienced on any off-grid
wind power system.
Other than the naturally thought steps (e.g. verification of wind & other energy sources
etc.); it is indicative from the flowchart that stakeholder’s acceptance is an integral part
of the process and certainly an early key step or “condition” so to speak along the
process. Choice of the client is also placed right on top of the other conditions simply
because these provide the necessary assurance that project developers would need as far
as payment is concerned. Without having such affirmation project developers may be
taking a big financial risk since any invested money would be at stake.

The chart also indicates how project developers may re-access/ rework or even decline
potential projects which are deemed to be technically impractical or unfavorable by the
stakeholders involved. Tasks such as, choosing another site, resizing the system and
reviewing/addressing any raised concerns by the involved parties, represent these
reassessments.

In the coming subsection a summary of the concluded challenges that project developers
may encounter during the planning process is presented.
 Summary flowchart for off-grid wind power
project's planning Challenges

Choice of client
Target another
client or project or
seek payment
guarantee

Economically
stable client
No

Yes

Verification of wind Verification of primary

resources energy resources (e.g
Solar radiation)
Decline project Choose another site
*Mis interpretation
of site conditions
Good wind & energy
resources at site? *Lack of
No coordination
between
Yes stakeholders

*Opposing
stakeholders
Stakeholders'
acceptance
granted?
No

Yes

Verification of load
specifics

*Mis-estimation of
load requirement
Sizing the system
*Undersizing or
oversizing the
Decline project system
Resize the system

Stakeholders'
acceptance
granted?
No

Yes

Economics of *Finding a balance

project verified between stakeholders
acceptance ,
technicalities of design,
economics of the
project and
environment
preservation
Financing plan
in place and *Lack of encouraging
secured? policies or incentives
No

Yes
Review and re-
access anomalies Issue project's
pointed out by *Failing to secure an
feasibility study
others appropriate
report to all parties
financing scheme

*Failing to obtain
necessary permits

Approval
granted from all
No parties?

Yes

Commence with the

project

Figure 11 Summary flow chart for project's planning and common challenges that hinders the project and its success
 50

7.2 Challenges

Presented alongside the flowchart in Figure 11 are few key challenges which may hinder
the implementation or the success of any project. Yet again, the stakeholder’s acceptance
and coordination amongst these is an important factor. Significant too, are the technical
issues concerning site conditions identification and choice of the optimum system (i.e.
type and size) that best suits the surrounding environment and the predicted loads.
Failure to estimate the load requirement is another critical area since this may lead to
either oversizing or under sizing the system.
Other challenges entail failures in securing the necessary finance or permits to
commence with the project. Keeping a balance between project’s ambitious energy
targets and yet fulfilling stakeholders’ and environment’s requirements within the given
budget presents also another obstacle that needs to be overcome.

One other challenge, which lies outside project developers’ control, is the existence of
encouraging policies and incentives. Absence of such strategies from the governance
side, makes both the planning and the implementation of off-grid wind power systems a
challenging process.

Besides the challenges mentioned above, it is also worth noting that there are other
challenging areas which specifically represent off-grid wind power systems. Typical
ones include:

 At times, the remoteness of the site becomes an obstacle in terms of logistics.

This may not only be observed during the installation phase but also during the
operation and maintenance phase too. Difficulty in accessing the site (i.e. for
manpower or equipment) makes it rather a more risky and costly task which
results in an unfavorable process altogether from a project’s developer’s
perspective.

 The relatively short history or maturity of the system worldwide may be a “put
off” so to speak to many investors since low levels of experience translates into
higher risks of a project’s failure. Similarly and in comparison, the relatively
long term existence of other off-grid power technologies (e.g. solar power)
becomes nothing but a more attractive option to consider.

 At times, initial high borne costs and expertise requirement may result in
making off-grid wind power systems a less favorable path to consider.
 51

CHAPTER 8. RECOMMENDATIONS & CONCLUDING REMARKS

There is certainly no one specific methodology or “recipe” to guarantee the success of

any planned project. There is also no single body or stakeholder to assure a win-win
situation for all parties involved. As indicated earlier and regardless of the project’s size
and use, considerations to implement off-grid wind power systems involves the
contribution of several stakeholders. Hence and in order to enable a proper
implementation of the system, it is best to adopt a holistic approach. In other words,
project developers scope shall not only be confined to how systems are ought to be
implemented but rather furthermore they should appreciate and acknowledge how
policies routed from the existing governance and decision makers affects the
implementation and the success of their planned systems.
In support of the summary flow chart presented earlier, the section below provides a
self-interpreted set of recommendations which can be helpful for project developers.

8.1 Recommendations

Ideally, the task of project developers lies in planning an optimized and a

sustainable wind power system within the limits of the given conditions and
restrictions. Without going into details, the following general recommendations
that could be used to supplement the “recipe” flowchart may be worth
considering for project developers:

 If possible, prioritize and choose the clients wisely (e.g. economically

stable ones)

 Carefully study the proposed site and identify the pros and cons. The
longer the study period is, the better (i.e. at least covering one year with
all its seasons).

 If available, collect and utilize any old existing data that could of help in
learning more about the site. Seek, look out for and learn from any nearby
similar projects within the vicinity of the potential site.

 Recognize all potential stakeholders that could be related to the project

and liaise with them right from the start and at all times throughout the
project study.

 Identify any concerns raised by stakeholders and address these at the

earliest.

 Conduct regular meetings and workshops with stakeholders to keep them

informed and updated.
 52

 Always be attentive to any socio-economic or environmental issues that

may be influenced by the project and strive to enhance sustainable
development in one way or the other.

 Increase local capacity and community engagement to strengthen positive

socio-economic impact and increase awareness of the benefits of off-grid
wind power systems among end users.(EEP & NDF, 2018, p.41)

 Use adequate and reliable methods to size your system and never hesitate
to seek assistance from experts.

 Be flexible and wise to resize the system or change the project location;
should initial findings indicate inadequacy in earlier choices or design.

 Create an Environmental Impact Assessment report (or similar) to reflect

any risks for negative impacts on the environment/inhabitants. Ensure to
include means of addressing any potential detrimental effects caused by
the project.

 Feel free to cooperate with the local NGOs or available renewable energy
associations to strengthen your study of the project.

 Have a conservative plan and always consider the worst case scenarios
(e.g. in terms of logistics, permits, wind availability etc.)

 Be vigilant with the economics of the project and ensure to secure the
required finance at an early stage.

 Collaborate with the local NGOs, environmental and renewable energy

organizations to strengthen and lobby for a better policy framework
which enables and facilitates the diffusion of off-grid wind power
systems within your region.

8.2 Concluding Remarks

Though off-grid wind power systems is a growing technology, it has yet significant roles
to play worldwide and at many fronts. Like its renewable counterparts (e.g. off-grid solar
power) it strives to provide environmental friendly power to areas where main grids are
out of reach or unreliable. There are however several challenges that work against the
diffusion or success of this rather relatively new technology. While local policies and
regulations play a significant role in enhancing off-grid renewable energies’ adoption
 53

(including off-grid wind power); project developers too shoulder a great responsibility in
the success of any potential project.
Project developers’ role is certainly a crucial one when it comes to identifying the pros
and cons of any potential project. In Figure 11 project developer’s influence on some
key steps along the planning process was reflected.

The concluded summary flow chart (Figure 11) indicated how stakeholder’s acceptance
(local communities in particular) is always a vital condition to projects’ approvals and
commencement along every taken step. Other factors such as choosing the appropriate
client & site, verifying project’s economics along with securing the convenient finance
were also recognized to play key roles in furnishing projects’ initiation and success. On
the other hand, mis-interpretation or estimation of the latter factors along with lack of
any encouraging policies or incentives, has represented the main posed challenges for
the systems.

It was obvious that countering such challenges involved learning from earlier
experiences, understanding the local circumstances and engaging all stakeholders at an
earlier stage. Moreover, proper planning and even lobbying for off-grid wind power
systems through an environmental/sustainable development path could be a fruitful
strategy in winning local governments and decision makers’ support.

From earlier presented studies, we saw how a local developer is more advantageous. In
comparison with national (or international) developers, a local developer is more capable
in building relations with the local citizens and politicians. This inevitably helps
whenever new opportunities/potential projects emerge within their vicinity.

Off-grid wind power systems represent a great opportunity to solve the world’s current
energy shortages and sustainable development issues. In effect these pushing drivers
enhance off-grid wind power system’s adoption and diffusion.
Project developers task in seeking and achieving the optimum set of conditions for a
successful sustainable off-grid wind power project and yet having all stakeholders on
board with it is certainly difficult but possible.

However by having more vigilant, flexible and preferably more ‘local’ developers with
sound set of data working within encouraging policy environments, it would not be
surprising to see off-grid wind power systems surpass many of their counterparts in the
very near future.
 54

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