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Monthly Oil Market Report

February 2023

Refinitiv Oil Research

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Summary Points: Quarterly GDP Figures (%) Quarterly GDP Figures (%)
Demand and Stocks US Eurozone UK China India Previous Latest

• The IMF increased its projection for global GDP

growth from 2.7% to 2.9%, citing China's re-opening 20 6
as a catalyst for a pick-up in business activity. India,
meanwhile, continued to be a bright spot.
• This also led to higher global oil demand forecasts, 4
with 2023 demand growth expected to be more than 0
150,000 bpd higher than the previous forecast.
• Global oil demand is expected to rise by around 1.9 2
million bpd next year, after increasing by around 2.2
million bpd in 2022. Chinese consumption could grow -20
by 850,000 bpd year-on-year, with Asian demand
0
rising by more than 1.53 million bpd. 2021 2022 INGDPQ=ECI CNGDP=ECI EUGDQY=ECI
• Following a 2 million bpd reduction in output in
November, OPEC+ has kept its supply unchanged.
Reuters estimates a 54,000 bpd decrease in OPEC- Quarterly Supply (mnbpd) Quarterly Demand (mnbpd)
11 output in January, compared to the previous
OPEC Supply Non OPEC Supply OECD Supply US Demand Europe D… China De… Other Asia … OECD De…
month.
• Despite Russia having trouble selling its oil to 50
Europe, non-OPEC production might rise by more
40
than 700,000 bpd in 2023. Russia's output could
decline by more than 1.3 million bpd. 20

• Current projections of supply and demand predict

that after declining by 800 million barrels in 2021, 20
stock levels rose by more than 65 million bbl in 2022. 40
Inventory levels may fall by more than 150 million bbl
if OPEC continues to produce oil at the same level as
in early 2023. 0
1 2 3 4 1 2 3
0
Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1 -Q2 -Q3 -Q4 -Q1 -Q2 -Q3 -Q4 -Q1 -Q2 -Q3 -Q4 -Q1
20- 20- 20- 20- 21- 21- 21- 21- 22- 22- 22- 22- 23- 20- 20 020 020 021 021 021 021 022 022 022 022 023
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

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Brent / WTI Spread ($/bbl) Brent Market Structure
Benchmark Prices ($/bbl)
15 LCOc6-LCOc1 LCOc12-LCOc1 LCOc24-LCOc1
Brent (LCOc1) WTI (CLc1)

10

100
5 0

50
0

-50
0 -5
2016 2018 2020 2022 2016 2018 2020 2022 2016 2018 2020 2022

Brent / Dubai EFS M3 Arbitrage WTI Market Structure

20 CLc6-CLc1 CLc12-CLc1 CLc24-CLc1

10

10

5 0

0
-50
-10
2016 2018 2020 2022 2016 2018 2020 2022 2016 2018 2020 2022

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Brent vs Dow Jones Industrial Avg Brent vs S&P 500

Brent vs USD
Brent (LCOc1) Dow Jones (.DJI) Brent (LCOc1) S&P 500 (.INX)
Brent (LCOc1) USD (.DXY)
40K 5K

110
100 100 4K
100
30K
100
3K
50 50 50

20K
90 2K

0 0 0
2016 2018 2020 2022 2016 2018 2020 2022 2016 2018 2020 2022

WTI vs USD WTI vs Dow Jones Industrial Avg WTI vs S&P 500
WTI (CLc1) USD (.DXY) WTI (CLc1) Dow Jones (.DJI) WTI (CLc1) S&P 500 (.INX)
40K 5K

110
100 100 100 4K
30K
100
3K
50 50 50

90 20K
2K

0 0 0
2016 2018 2020 2022 2016 2018 2020 2022 2016 2018 2020 2022

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January production from OPEC was at 28.87 million bpd, with the OPEC10 production at 24.50 million bpd. The January production was 0.05 million bpd lower m-o-m with lower
volumes from Iraq and no further increases from Nigeria. The OPEC 10 members produced 0.92 million bpd lower than their target production levels.

OPEC Monthly Production (mnbpd)

Date Algeria Angola Congo Equatorial Guinea Gabon Iraq Iran Kuwait Libya Nigeria Saudi Arabia UAE Venezuela

August 2022 1.04 1.18 0.26 0.09 0.18 4.52 2.56 2.80 1.10 1.18 10.85 3.18 0.64
September 2022 1.05 1.10 0.26 0.09 0.19 4.50 2.56 2.82 1.15 1.15 11.00 3.19 0.67
October 2022 1.06 1.06 0.26 0.06 0.19 4.59 2.55 2.81 1.15 1.12 11.00 3.19 0.68
November 2022 1.02 1.08 0.26 0.06 0.19 4.52 2.57 2.68 1.13 1.18 10.47 3.04 0.69
December 2022 1.01 1.11 0.26 0.06 0.19 4.49 2.58 2.68 1.14 1.35 10.45 3.04 0.65
January 2023 1.01 1.13 0.26 0.05 0.19 4.40 2.56 2.68 1.15 1.29 10.44 3.05 0.66

Source: Reuters OPEC Survey

African OPEC members Production History Middle East OPEC members Production History
Angola Congo Gabon Equatorial Guinea Algeria Libya Nigeria Iran Kuwait UAE Iraq Saudi Arabia
6

10.44
10.10
20
1.46 1.29
10.75 11.00 11.00
10.30 10.40 10.55 10.45
1.49 1.18 1.15 1.35 10.19
1.12
1.35 1.28
4 1.13

1.15
0.99 1.10 1.15 4.40
1.04 1.05 1.13 1.14 4.20 4.35 4.45 4.52 4.50 4.59 4.49
0.78 0.61 10 4.26 4.40

0.98 1.01 2.92 2.96 2.97 3.03 3.13 3.19 3.19 3.04 3.04 3.05
0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04
1.06 1.01
2
2.58 2.61 2.64 2.69 2.77 2.82 2.81 2.68 2.68 2.68

0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.48 2.55 2.58 2.53 2.56 2.56 2.55 2.57 2.58 2.56
0.3 0.3
0
Jan 2022 Mar 2022 May 2022 Jul 2022 Sep 2022 Nov 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2022 Mar 2022 May 2022 Jul 2022 Sep 2022 Nov 2022 Jan 2023

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West Africa Differentials Mediterranean Differentials

North Sea Differentials
BonnyLight Forcados QuaIboe Cabinda Girrasol AzeriBTC CPCBlend SaharanBlend
Forties Oseberg Troll Ekofisk
10 10

5
5 0

0
0 -10

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

North America Differentials Middle East Differentials Russian Differentials

LLS Mars Bakken WTIMidland WCS OmanDubai QatarLand QatarMarine Murban Urals NWE UralsMED ESPO
20

0
0

-20 10

-20
-40
0

-60 -40
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

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• Global diesel flows into Europe fell in January to 7.73 million mt, down from the record 8.35 million mt
that was discharged in December due mainly to logistical constraints amid the rush to offload before the
Feb. 5 ban. The volumes are well above the monthly average of 5.6 million mt delivered in February-July LGO Futures vs EFS
2022. The vast flows eased European supply anxieties lower values by month-end. Early signs on flow
changes resulting from the Russia sanction are increased exports to North and West Africa as well as to LGO EFS
STS sites across the Mediterranean and to Turkey.
0
1,500
• Jet fuel deliveries from the East of Suez into Europe rebounded sharply in January to 1.7 million mt on
the back of stronger values including differentials soaring above $100/mt for CIF NWE cargoes, according
to Refinitiv data. However, the combination of higher holiday demand and limited local output due to the -100
focus on diesel flows are no longer in play leading to smaller cracks, East-West spread and regrade.
Bolstered by the opening of China, more jet fuel are staying in Asia.
1,000 -200
• Gasoline exports from Northwest Europe (NWE) on the transatlantic and West Africa (WAF) rose to an
eight-month high in January boosted by refinery issues in the US and cheaper freight rates. Exports to the
US and WAF reached 2.3 million mt in January, up from 1.64 million mt December. But dismal weather -300
which affected US refinery operations also hurt demand as motorist were forced to stay off the roads by
icy conditions and storms. Consequently, inventories climbed leading to a temporary slowdown but a 500
heavy maintenance season suggest flows will soon rebound. -400
Jul 2021 Jan 2022 Jul 2022 Jan 2023

EBOB and MOGAS Arb SWAP NWE Naphtha Crack vs Brent SWAP
EBOB MOGAS Arb Spread NAPHCRK Brent (LCOc1)
40 1,200

1,000

1,000 20 100
800

600
0
500 50
400
Jul 2021 Jan 2022 Jul 2022 Jan 2023 Jul 2021 Jan 2022 Jul 2022 Jan 2023

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Northwest Europe Refinery Margins US Gulf Coast Refinery Slate Singapore Refinery Slate
Brent_Cracking NWERefSlate 12

30

11

20
20
10

10
9
15

Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023

Mediterranean Refinery Margins US Gulf Coast Refinery Margins Singapore Refinery Margins
MEDRefSlate Urals_Cracking EsSider_Cracking WTI Cracking Margin Mars Cracking Margin Murban Dubai
8 30

30 60

6 20
20 40

4 10
10 20

0 0 2 0
Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023 Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023 Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023

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Singapore refining margins ($/bbl) China refining throughput (million MT)

Crude Slate Cracking C1 Dubai Cracking C1 Murban Cracking C1 Upper Zakum Cracking C1
20
60

50
Oct 2022 Nov 2022 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Jul 2021 Jan 2022 Jul 2022

Indian refinery throughput (kT)

Med refining margins ($/bbl)
24K
Med Crude Slate Cracking C1 Med CPC Blend Cracking C1 Med Urals Cracking C1

22K
50

20K

0 18K
Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022 Nov 2022 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Jul 2021 Jan 2022 Jul 2022

NWE refining margins ($/bbl) Japan refinery throughput (kbpd)

NWE Crude Slate Cracking C1 NWE Urals Cracking C1 NWE Arab Light Cracking C1 3,000

50
2,500

0 2,000
Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022 Nov 2022 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Jul 2021 Jan 2022 Jul 2022

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West Africa Freight Costs (Dirty) Russia Freight Costs (Dirty) North Sea Freight Costs (Dirty)
Bonny T-Jamnagar VLCC Bonny T-Rotterdam Su… Bonny T-Lavera Su… Novorossiysk–IT Augusta Suezmax Primorsk–Rotterdam Aframax GB Hound Point–Qingdao/… GB Hound Point–Uls… GB Sullom Voe…

20 60

30
15

40
10
20

5
20

10 0
Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023

US Freight Costs (Dirty) Northwest Europe Freight Costs (Clean) European Diesel Arb Freight Costs (Clean)
Corpus Christi–GB Milford Suezmax Corpus Christi–IN Vizag VLCC Rotterdam-… Fawley-Ne… Rotterda… Rotterda… Rotterda… Yanbu-Le Havre Houston-Amsterdam Houston-Rotterdam

40 80

60
35
60

30 40

40
25
20

20 20
Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Feb 2023

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Freight rates for key routes from Middle East Freight rates for key routes from West Africa Freight rates for key routes in Med
ME-China-VLCC ME-NWE-VLCC ME-USG-VLCC WAF-China-VLCC WAF-USG-VLCC WAF-USAC-Suezmax Cross Med-Suezmax Cross Med-Aframax

6 5

3
4
4
$/bbl

$/bbl

$/bbl
2 3

2
2
1

0 1
Jul 2022 Sep 2022 Nov 2022 Jan 2023 Jul 2022 Sep 2022 Nov 2022 Jan 2023 Jul 2022 Sep 2022 Nov 2022 Jan 2023

VLCC floating storage Suezmax floating storage Aframax floating storage

Floating storage, confirmed excluding Iran (bbl) Floating storage, potential e… Floating storage, confirmed (bbl) Floating storage, potential (bbl) Floating storage, confirmed (bbl) Floating storage, potential (bbl)

20M

40M
20M
15M

30M
10M
10M
20M
5M

10M 0M 0M
Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023 Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023 Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023

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• January seaborne exports of crude oil from OPEC were assessed
at 19.82 million bpd, a m-o-m decrease of 0.75 million bpd and a y- OPEC Monthly Exports (mnbpd)
o-y increase of 0.43 million bpd.
OPEC Country 2022-01 2022-02 2022-03 2022-04 2022-05 2022-06 2022-07 2022-08 2022-09 2022-10 2022-11 2022-12 2023-01
                         
• Saudi Arabian crude exports decreased to 6.92 million bpd, a m-o- Algeria 0.39 0.38 0.42 0.32 0.41 0.45 0.31 0.42 0.27 0.38 0.28 0.38 0.35
m decrease of 0.60 million bpd, the lowest since Jun 2022 Angola 0.87 1.23 1.09 1.17 1.24 1.29 1.00 1.24 1.14 1.16 1.13 1.04 1.21
Congo-Brazzaville / 0.26 0.24 0.25 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.27 0.22 0.25 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.24
• Exports from Middle East OPEC members accounted for 76.8% of Republic of Congo
all OPEC exports, while African members accounted for a further Equatorial Guinea 0.13 0.07 0.08 0.11 0.06 0.08 0.12 0.06 0.08 0.05 0.06 0.04 0.06
22.5%, with Venezuela contributing for 0.7%. Gabon 0.17 0.14 0.19 0.17 0.21 0.21 0.17 0.22 0.18 0.24 0.14 0.23 0.20
Iran 0.30 0.33 0.23 0.19 0.23 0.23 0.28 0.55 0.22 0.27 0.31 0.27 0.26
• Saudi Arabia announced the Mar OSP to Asia, increasing OSPs
Iraq 3.60 3.63 3.55 3.71 3.53 3.66 3.62 3.70 3.64 3.79 3.63 3.67 3.46
for most grades as against a market expectation of a cut. The
Kuwait 1.86 1.98 1.74 1.89 1.85 1.80 1.89 1.95 1.93 2.00 1.87 1.69 1.90
anticipated improvement in Chinese demand was a likely reason for
Libya 0.86 0.97 0.90 0.71 0.71 0.55 0.58 0.91 1.05 1.00 0.88 0.92 0.89
the increase. OSP for the flagship Arab Light grade was increased
by $0.20/bbl compared to Feb. The OSPs for the Medium & Heavy Nigeria 1.56 1.48 1.40 1.34 1.54 1.26 1.23 1.17 1.24 1.08 1.22 1.44 1.51
grades were increased by $0.50/bbl each. Saudi Arabia 6.69 6.72 6.59 7.26 7.07 6.92 7.85 7.88 7.71 7.35 7.29 7.52 6.92
United Arab Emirates 2.54 2.76 2.76 3.10 2.80 2.92 2.98 2.98 2.83 2.97 2.95 2.81 2.68
• G7 nations, the European Commission and Australia approved a Venezuela 0.17 0.21 0.32 0.40 0.17 0.19 0.34 0.35 0.39 0.11 0.17 0.35 0.15
$100/bbl price cap on premium Russian oil products such as diesel Total 19.39 20.13 19.51 20.59 20.05 19.78 20.63 21.67 20.93 20.64 20.14 20.57 19.82
and $45/bbl for discounted products from Feb. 5. ICE gasoil closed
at near $110/bbl on Friday, the lowest in almost two months but
Russian diesel traded in Europe at around $80/bbl after discount.
The price cap is a get out clause to minimize supply disruptions to Seasonality of OPEC crude oil exports (2018 OPEC Exports for Report month(mnbpd)
allow G7 companies to continue providing credit, insurance and
shipping services in the trading of Russian oil. However, the EU has onwards)

4.5%

1.8%

1.3%

1.2%

1.0%

0.7%

0.3%
6.1%
on its own imposed a ban on Russian oil imports regardless of any

7.6%
100%

9.6%
price caps; thus going forward the absence of about 3-3.5 million mt Max Current Year Min

13.5%

100.0%
of diesel in Europe. There will be a 55-day transition period for sea-

17.5%
800 750.8
borne Russian oil products bought and loaded before Sunday. The

34.9%
wind-down period for Russian crude was 45 days.
50%
• Chinese independent refiners have shifted focus from crude to fuel
mnbbls

oil feedstock material for their refineries with reports of blended 600
Russian fuel oil proving to be not just economically attractive but 497.0
also overcomes the requirement of having crude oil import quotas, 0%
ia raq t… it ia la a ia ran n la a al
which are privy to few refiners in the country. Reuters spoke with rab I i ra uwa iger ngo Liby lger I i l l e … abo zue uine Tot
iA m K N A A av G ne l G
sources in independent refiners in the country who confirmed their ud bE zz Ve oria
400 Sa ra Bra t
interest in sourcing fuel oil barrels as crude oil substitute. 0 5 10 d A o - ua
nite ong Eq
Load Month U C

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• Monthly condensate exports from OPEC in January OPEC Condensate Monthly Exports (million bbl)
decreased to 6.0 million bbl, a m-o-m drop of 1.0 million bbl. Load Country 2022-01 2022-02 2022-03 2022-04 2022-05 2022-06 2022-07 2022-08 2022-09 2022-10 2022-11 2022-12 2023-01
                           

• Algeria accounted for 38.3% of the monthly volumes, with a Algeria 0.7 1.4   1.4 1.4   2.8 0.7 2.1 4.7 1.0 3.2 2.3
total export of 2.3 million bbl. All cargoes were destined for Iran             0.8 2.0   1.6      
France Iraq                   0.3      
Libya 1.2 2.2 3.1 1.9 0.6 1.2 1.1 2.9 3.1 3.7 1.2 3.8 3.4
• Libyan condensate exports accounted for a total of 3.4 million United Arab         0.3               0.3
bbl with destinations as France, Spain and Netherlands. Total 1.9 3.6 3.1 3.3 2.3 1.2 4.7 5.7 5.2 10.2 2.2 7.0 6.0

• 300,000 bbls of Sharjah condensate were exported from the

UAE to China

OPEC Condensate Exports by Load Country (million bbl) OPEC Condensate by Destination (million bbl)
Load Country Algeria Iran Iraq Libya United Arab Emirates Libya Algeria

10.2
10

3.7
7.0
6.0
5.7
5.2
4.7 1.6
5 3.8 France (Southern) 1.6
3.6 3.3 1.1 2.9 3.4
3.1 3.1 Netherlands 1.2 France (Southern) 1.2
2.3 0.8
1.9 2.2
2.2 1.9 4.7
1.2 2.0
1.2 3.1 2.8 1.2 3.2
2.1 2.3 France (Northern) 0.7
1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.0
0.7 0.7
0 United Arab Emirates
2022-01 2022-02 2022-03 2022-04 2022-05 2022-06 2022-07 2022-08 2022-09 2022-10 2022-11 2022-12 2023-01 Spain 1.0

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Saudi Arabia Exports by month (mnbpd) Saudi Exports by load port & dest region Saudi Arabia & Kuwait Neutral Zone cargoes
8.0 for Report month by Destination (million bbl)
Ras al Khafji
7.88 APAC-Others Grade Khafji Ratawi (Wafra Ratawi) Eocene (Wafra Eocene)

7.5 Yanbu United States 0.8

7.26 China 1.7
APAC-Top 4 United Arab Emirates
7.29 0.4
7.0

6.89 6.92 North America

United States
0.9 4.7 Indonesia
6.69 0.5
Ras Tanura Med and North Africa mnbbl
6.5 6.59
United Arab Emirates Singapore 0.3
South Africa and Indian Ocean
UKC/NWE 0.4
Latin America Thailand 0.3
6.0 South Korea 1.9
Jan 2022 Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023 Middle East

Iraq Exports by month & grade split (mnbpd) Iraq exports by Grade & Destination (mnbpd) Kuwait exports by Grade & Dest (mnbpd)
Basrah Heavy Basrah Medium Kirkuk Kurdish Crude Oil Basrah Medium Basrah Heavy Kurdish Crude Oil Kuwait Blend Kuwait Super Light South Ratqa (Lower Fars)

Italy India
(Blank) 0.17 (Blank) 0.07
0.39 Croatia 0.12 0.09
0.35
0.38 South Korea 0.10 0.05
2.37 South Korea
3 2.17 2.12 2.25 2.50 0.14 Japan 0.05 China 0.37
2.48 2.18 China 0.72
Singapore 0.06 Vietnam 0.06
Italy 0.01
Taiwan 0.14
2
India 0.47
3.46 France (Northern)
1.82 Egypt 0.07
million bpd 0.03 million bpd
Greece 0.14
1 1.12 1.13 South Korea
1.09 0.28 India 0.22
0.95 0.98 China 0.15
0.78 India 0.44
0.67
United Arab… 0.10
0 Italy 0.10 Malaysia 0.02 Japan 0.24
South Korea 0.08
Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023

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UAE Exports by Load ports (mnbpd) UAE exports by Grade & Destination (mnbpd) ADNOC exports by Load port / berth (mnbpd)
Das Island 2.98 2.97 2.95 Murban Upper Za… Das Umm Lulu Crude Oil Mubarraz Mubarek Zirku Island Fujairah Das Island Jebel Dhanna/Ru… Mubarraz Island
3 2.83 2.81
Fateh Terminal 2.68
India 0.04 (Blank) 0.06 (Blank) 0.01
Fujairah India 0.06 Das Island - Crude Oil …
South Korea 0.02
0.24 Zirku Island - Crude …
Hamriyah (Sharjah) China 0.01
0.37
2 South K… 0.05 Japan 0.30
Jebel Dhanna/Ru… 2 Philippi… 0.03
Malaysia 0.01
Mubarraz Island

Zirku Island Japan 0.22 2.68 Malaysia 0.09

Singapore 2.60
0.05
flows mnbpd million bpd million bpd
1 South … 0.07 Das Island - C… Zirku Island - …
1
India 0.16 Thailand 0.09 0.41 0.42
(Blank) 0.02
(Blank) 0.03
Brunei D… 0.02
China 0.38 ADCO Fujairah SPM 2 ADCO Fujairah SPM 1
Singapore 0.05
0.30 0.43
0 0 Japan 0.10 India 0.10
Sep 2022 Nov 2022 Jan 2023

Qatar exports by month & grade (mnbpd) Oman exports by month (mnbpd) Middle East exports by dest region
Al Rayyan Al Shaheen Khafji Qatar Land Qatar Marine
1.10
1.0 Middle East
1.01 1.03 1.02 Qatar
1.00
0.6 0.20 0.14
0.22 0.91 Oman APAC-Others
0.13 0.21 0.85
0.16 0.15
Kuwait North America
0.19
0.16
0.4 0.22
0.14 0.13 0.12 United Arab Emirates
0.12 0.5
0.33 0.32
0.30 0.31 APAC-Top 4
0.27 Iraq
0.2 0.24
0.24

UKC/NWE
Saudi Arabia
Med and North Africa
0.0 0.0
Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023 Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023

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• Crude exports from North African OPEC member Libya decreased by 30,000
bpd m-o-m to be assessed at 0.89 million bpd. Algerian exports also decreased
by 30,000 bpd to be assessed at 350,000 bpd.
African OPEC exports by Destination for Report month (mnbpd)
China Spain United St… South Africa United Ki…
• The Dubai - Brent spread narrowed during the month with the reopening of
China and benchmark Brent indices falling more than the Dubai complex. This
opened up arbitrage opportunities for Atlantic basin crudes to flow to Asia.

Nigeria 0.09
Congo-Braz… Nigeria 0.09
Dubai Brent EFS ($/bbl)
Libya 0.12

Nigeria 0.33
DUB-EFS-1M

10 Libya 0.08 Alg… An…

Libya 0.04 Algeria… Angola 0.09 Algeri…
Canada Netherlands Malaysia Portugal
Gab… Nig…
0 Libya 0… An… Nig… …
Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023 Angola 0.72 Equatorial G… Nigeria 0.…
Italy Nigeria 0.08 Ango… Lib… Libya …
African OPEC Exports for Report month (mnbpd) Nigeria … Al… Congo-Br…
France (Southern)
Nigeria 1.51 Australia Sout… Gre… Cro…

Angola 1.21 Nigeria 0.10

Libya 0.07 Nigeria 0.07 Algeria 0.03
Gabon… Liby… Nige…
Libya 0.89 Thailand Israel
Ta… Peru Ur… Si…
Libya 0.37 Gabo… Alg…
Algeria 0.35 Ang… Nig…
India
Cote DIvoire Co… Ni… Ni… Eq…
Congo-Brazzaville / Re… 0.24 Libya 0.05 Al… …
Indonesia Poland Ukraine
Angola … Ga… Nigeria 0.06
Gabon 0.20
Turkey Germ…
Sweden
Equatorial Guinea 0.06
Nigeria 0.29 Congo-… Lib… Nigeria 0.06 Gabon 0.03 Nigeri… Li… Angola

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North African OPEC exports by Dest Region for Report month (mnbpd) North African OPEC Exports including Condensate by month (mnbpd)
Algeria Libya
APAC-Top 4
1.5 1.12
Algeria
Baltics 1.05 1.15 1.04
1.01 1.01
0.90
North America 0.92
1.0 0.77
0.59
UKC/NWE

Libya 0.5
Med and North Africa 0.54
0.46 0.44 0.48
0.41 0.40 0.42
0.37 0.34 0.31
0.0
APAC-Others Jan 2022 Mar 2022 May 2022 Jul 2022 Sep 2022 Nov 2022 Jan 2023

Algerian exports including Condensate by Grade & Dest (mnbpd) Libyan exports including Condensate by Grade & Dest (mnbpd)
Es Sider Italy
France (Southern) 0.02 Italy 0.02 0.02 Germany 0.02
France (Southern) 0.05
Amna Italy 0.02
Italy 0.04
Mesla Italy 0.02 Italy 0.13
France (Northern)
0.02 China 0.03
Lithuania 0.03 Mellitah Condensate United Kin… 0.02
El Sharara Spain 0.02 Malta 0.02
United States Italy 0.02 Turkey 0.02
Saharan Blend
0.04
0.42 Zueitina (Blank) 0.00
Singapore 0.03
1.01 France (… 0.02
France (Southern)
Algerian Condensate Netherlands Brega
million bpd million bpd 0.02
0.07 Malaysia 0.03
Sarir Italy 0.05
Italy 0.02
Saharan Blend Sweden 0.02 Spain 0.02
United Kingdom
Netherlands 0.02 United Stat… 0.02
0.07 Bouri (Buri)
South Korea 0.02 China 0.03
Indonesia 0.02
Bu Attifel Indonesia 0.03
Spain 0.03
Spain 0.08 France (Southern) 0.04 Singapore 0.05

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• Nigerian exports increased by 60,000 bpd, to be assessed at 1.51 million bpd, while Angolan exports gained 170,000
bpd m-o-m with total exports hitting 1.21 million bpd. West African OPEC Exports by month (mnbpd)
• Gabon's exports decreased by 40,000 bpd to 200,000 bpd, while shipments from Eq Guinea went up by 10,000 bpd and
from Congo increased by 20,000 bpd. Angola Congo-Brazzaville / Republic of … Equatorial Guinea Gabon Nigeria

West African OPEC exports by Destination Region for Report month (mnbpd) 3 1.54 1.51
1.56 1.40 1.34 1.17
Load Country   APAC- APAC- Baltics Latin Med and North South UKC/ West Total 1.24
1.08
Others Top 4 America North America Africa and NWE Africa
Africa Indian 2
                   
Ocean
Angola 0.13 0.09 0.67     0.09 0.03 0.10 0.10   1.21
Congo-Brazzaville / 0.03   0.18           0.03   0.24
Republic of Congo 1 1.23 1.29 1.24 1.21
1.09 1.00 1.04
Equatorial Guinea     0.04     0.01         0.06 0.87
Gabon 0.03   0.09     0.05     0.02   0.20
Nigeria 0.05 0.10 0.22 0.03 0.03 0.37 0.32 0.03 0.22 0.12 1.51 0
Total 0.24 0.19 1.20 0.03 0.03 0.52 0.35 0.13 0.38 0.12 3.21 Jan 2022 Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023

Angolan exports by Grade (mnbpd) Nigerian exports by Grade (mnbpd) Other West African exports by Grade &
Destination (mnbpd)
Jubilee Ebok
Saxi Batuqu… 0.05 0.02 Forcados Blend 0.25 …
Bonny Light 0.03 0.02
ina
Kissanje Blend Abo 0.03 Ch
0.06 Nemba 0.29 iba
Usan 0.03 Ce
G…
Hungo Blend orial
Yoho 0.06 uat
0.06 Eq

It…

Ch
Co
CJ Blend

ng

ina
Olombendo

o-B
0.06

Djen
Eg…
0.06

razz
R…
1.21 1.51 Qua Iboe

o Blend
Akpo Blend

aville / Republic of
Saturno
million bpd Mostarda
0.07
million bpd
0.22
0.49
0.07

Mandji
China
0.10 million bpd
Bonga 0.09

on
Gab

Co
Girassol 0.08

ng
o
Plutonio 0.10 Egina 0.09 Escravos 0.17

…
Ne
ji
nd
Clov 0.09 t/Ma
Ligh N'Ko
Dalia 0.09 Pazflor 0.09 Amenam Blend 0.13 Agbami 0.15
Rabi s…
Unit
ed …
China

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• Key crude oil differentials fell slightly, as traders see the market as adequately supplied. However,
medium and heavy sour grades were supported not only by the lack of Russian oil but also due to North Sea exports by month (mnbpd)
problems with Johan Sverdrup production. In addition, a short disruption of loadings from the Turkish
Denmark Netherlands Norway United Kingdom
port of Ceyhan also lifted medium sour differentials.
• Forties rose from a discount of $0.80/bbl to Dated Brent at the end of December to as high as a
premium of $0.30/bbl but ended the month at a discount of around $0.70/bbl. The Dated to first month 0.91
0.85 0.83 0.90 0.78
spread remained in contango the whole month. 2
• Volumes of the important grades that make up the North Sea benchmark could decrease slightly to 0.73 0.64 0.60 0.70
716,000 bpd in March from 707,000 bpd in February. Johan Sverdrup loadings are scheduled to 1.58 1.51
average around 745,000 bpd, slightly less than in February but only due to the higher number of days 1.42
1.34
1.43 1.40
1 1.23 1.28 1.26
in March.
• Refinery margins rose in January compared to December levels, especially due to strong distillate
demand amid low stocks.
• In January, the Brent/Dubai EFS averaged $4.29/bbl, down from $5.36/bbl in December. A Johan
0
Sverdrup VLCC left for Asia at the end of January, for the first time since November 2022. Jan 2022 Mar 2022 May 2022 Jul 2022 Sep 2022 Nov 2022 Jan 2023

Norway exports by Grade & Dest (mnbpd) UK exports by Grade & Dest(mnbpd)
Johan Sverdrup Ekofisk Blend
United Kingdom 0.02 China 0.06 United States 0.01 Denmark 0.02
Gullfaks Forties
United Kingdom 0.04 Finland 0.09 Netherlands 0.02
France (Northern)
Grane Finland 0.02 Schiehallion Denmark 0.02 0.12
Germany 0.05
Netherlands 0.04 Netherlands 0.02
Asgard Crude Clair
Greece 0.06 United Kingdom
Netherlands 0.05 0.02
Goliat Blend Italy 0.01 Brent Blend
United K… 0.04 Spain 0.02
Lithuania 0.05 Italy 0.04
Oseberg Blend Netherl… 0.01 Catcher
Netherlands
Statfjord Netherl… 0.02 Flotta 0.02
(Blank) 0.02
Alvheim
United Kingdom
0.02 1.51 Netherlands
0.13
Beryl Germany 0.04 0.78 Finland 0.02
Sweden 0.03
Yme million bpd Triton Blend million bpd France … 0.01
Sweden 0.04
France (Northern) Netherlands Germany 0.02
Heidrun Captain
0.02 0.04
Poland 0.09 Italy 0.02
Skarv Germany 0.03 Wytch Farm
Poland 0.02
Gudrun Blend United Kingdom Spain 0.02 Mariner
0.04 Turkey 0.03 Lithuania 0.02 Netherlands 0.07
Martin Linge Kraken
United Kingdom 0.10 Netherlands 0.05 United States 0.02
Sweden 0.16
Norne Germany 0.02 Western Isles Netherlands 0.02 Germany 0.03
United Kingdom 0.04

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Russia Crude exports by Load ports (mnbpd)
Arctic Gate Terminal (V… 4.52 4.50 Russia Crude flows for report month by Grade and Discharge Country (mnbpd)
De Kastri 4.24 4.19 4.18
3.96 4 Urals ESPO blend
Kaliningrad 4
Kozmino

Murmansk 3
3
Novorossiysk

Prigorodnoye (Sakhalin… Bulgaria 0.19 Spain 0.16

2
Primorsk 2

Prirazlomnaya Platform

Umba FSO
1 1
Ust-Luga
Turkey 0.12
Denmark… Morocco …
Varandey India 0.74
flows mnbpd 0 0
China 0.66
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Egypt …
Cub… (Bl…
2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 Arco KEBCO

Russia exports by Load port & Grade (mnbpd) Greece 0.22 China 0.12 Lithua… Ghan…

Novorossiysk
CPC Blend
Arco 0.07 Romania 0.09
Primorsk Arco 0.20 CPC Blend 1.33

Kozmino
Urals 0.59 India 0.12 Russi…
Ust-Luga Netherlands 0.13
India 0.09 China 0.09 Greece 0.09 Turkey … Italy…
Murmansk
KEBCO
0.07
4.50 Italy 0.27
De Kastri China 0.06 (Bla… Spain 0.03
million bpd
Varandey KEBCO Croatia 0.04
ESPO blend Turkey 0.10 Sokol (Sakhalin I) Sakhali…
0.13 Egypt 0.06
Prigorodnoye (Sakhalin… 0.66
Sin…
Urals 0.44 Romania 0.04
Arctic Gate Terminal (V…
China 0.05
Urals 0.77
Kaliningrad South Korea 0.19 France (Southern) 0.09 Spain 0.06 (Blank) 0.03 Fra… South Korea 0.14

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US Crude exports by month (mnbpd) US Crude flows for report month by Grade and Discharge Country (mnbpd)
4 3.74 Cold Lake
3.69
3.49 3.53 Unity Gold
China
3.33 3.35 3.31 WTI Midland
3.15 AWB Crude

3 West Texas Light United Kingdom

India
Mars
2 Netherlands
Israel

United States
1
Bahamas
Dominican Republic
Crude Oil Canada
0 Panama
Jul 2022 Sep 2022 Nov 2022 Jan 2023 Nicaragua
Indonesia
US Crude exports by Load port & Grade (mnbpd) Uruguay
Norway
Corpus Christi Ireland
WTI
Mexico
GOLA - Galveston Offs… Mars 0.13 0.03 Crude Oil 0.53 Australia
WTI 0.17 France (Southern)
Houston
WTI 0.12 Denmark
Mars 0.02
Southtex Lightering Crude Oil Gibraltar
0.11 Spain
Bayport

LOOP
WTI 0.24 3.31 WTI
Germany
Taiwan
Convent million bpd Italy
West Tex…
Freeport (USA) 0.12 South Korea
WTI 1.06
Venezuela
WTI 0.27 Peru
Beaumont Finland
Unity … 0.02 France (Northern)
Empire Poland
Crude Oil 0.30 WTI Midland 0.02 Singapore
Sweden

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US Crude Oil Imports by Country of Origin Waterborne Crude Oil Imports Arriving Next Three Weeks
Arrival Date Load Country Grade Vessel Discharge Port Barrels
 
February 12 Iraq Basrah Heavy STENA SUNRISE Galveston 1,000,244
February 12 Mexico Isthmus CAPRICORN SUN Paulsboro 511,190
Canada
6K February 12 Panama Crude Oil MONTE SERANTES El Segundo Terminal 962,064
Mexico February 12 Venezuela Morichal CANOPUS VOYAGER Pascagoula 495,392
Saudi Arabia February 13 Colombia Crude Oil CHIOS LION Long Beach 566,400
February 13 Saudi Arabia Arab Extra Light NEW TRIUMPH Long Beach 1,053,492
Colombia
February 13 Saudi Arabia Arab Light NEW TRIUMPH Long Beach 1,024,868
4K Iraq
kbd

February 14 Argentina Escalante PGC MARINA Barbers Point 427,730

Brazil February 14 Nigeria Amenam Blend CRUDE LEVANTE Philadelphia 985,177
February 17 Canada Hibernia PHILOTIMOS Baton Rouge 600,218
Ecuador
February 17 Nigeria CJ Blend ELANDRA EAGLE Philadelphia 466,200
2K Nigeria February 17 Nigeria Forcados Blend RIO SPIRIT   931,440
Russia February 17 Nigeria Okwuibome ELANDRA EAGLE Philadelphia 502,049
February 19 Nigeria Yoho STENA SUPERIOR New York 905,483
Total
February 20 Kuwait Eocene (Wafra Eocene) SONANGOL KASSANJE Houston 400,293
February 20 Kuwait Ratawi (Wafra Ratawi) SONANGOL KASSANJE Houston 484,432
0K
Nov 2022 Jan 2023 February 21 Argentina Crude Oil CONQUEST Barbers Point 447,342
February 21 Iraq Basrah Medium ALMI HYDRA Pacific Area 1,029,235
US Crude Oil Net Imports February 21 Qatar Qatar Land PASCAGOULA VOYAGER Pacific Area 1,176,638
February 21 Saudi Arabia Arab Light ALMI HYDRA Pacific Area 1,006,567
10K
February 21 United Arab Das PASCAGOULA VOYAGER Pacific Area 955,984
February 22 Iraq Basrah Medium GULF SUNRISE Long Beach 1,029,235
5K
February 22 Saudi Arabia Arab Extra Light GULF SUNRISE Long Beach 517,340
Exports February 22 Saudi Arabia Arab Light GULF SUNRISE Long Beach 503,284
kbd

0K February 28 Canada Hibernia EVERBRIGHT Cherry Point 1,087,895

Imports
March 3 Equatorial Guinea Ceiba EVA MAERSK Pacific Area 933,751
Net Imports
-5K March 4 Iraq Basrah Medium DHT LEOPARD   2,022,357
March 4 Mexico Maya VL PROSPERITY Galveston 1,552,159
-10K Total         23,578,459
Nov 2022 Jan 2023

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Permian Crude Oil Production US Crude Oil Production Rig Count

Permian (bpd/rig) Permian (total bpd) Lower 48 Crude Oil Production Alaska Crude Oil Prouction Onshore Rigs Offshore Rigs (RH) Inland Water Rigs (RH)
6M 800 20

Permian (total bpd)

Permian (bpd/rig)

1K
750 15
5M
12000

kbd
0K 700 10
Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023

Eagle Ford Crude Oil Production 650 5

EF (bpd/rig) EF (total bpd) 11500

600 0
Sep 2022 Nov 2022 Jan 2023 Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023

EF (total bpd)
1.2M
EF (bpd/rig)

2K
US Onshore Production F'cast, Selected Plays Oil Rigs Gas Rigs
(bpd; current mnth)
1.1M

0K 0.44M
600
Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023
1.23M Anadarko
Bakken Crude Oil Production Appalachia
Bakken (bpd/rig) Bakken (total bpd) Bakken
400
1.21M Eagle Ford
Bakken (total bpd)
Bakken (bpd/rig)

1.2M Haynesville
2K 5.64M
0.04M Niobrara
0.68M 200
1.0M Permian

0K Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023

Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023

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Marquis Products + Commercial Crude Stocks Δ Days of Supply US Gasoline Balance

Gasoline Diesel Jet Fuel Production Net Imports Product Supplied
40 10
20

35
mln bbls

mln bpd
5
30
0

25
0

-20 20
Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023 Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023 Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023

Marquis Products Stocks US Diesel Balance US Jet Fuel Balance

Gasoline Stocks Diesel Stocks Jet Fuel Stocks Production Net Imports Product Supplied Production Net Imports Product Supplied

0.4bn 6 2

0.3bn 4

mln bpd
mln bpd
bbls

0.2bn 2

0.1bn 0
0

0.0bn -2
Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023 Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023 Apr 2022 Jul 2022 Oct 2022 Jan 2023

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